Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?

[Davnasty]

It's possible summer temperatures halt the spread of the virus.  A counter point is places like Bahrain with temperatures in the high 70s that are experiencing community spread of the virus.

The U.S. just passed 1,000 cases according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

That was Trump's talking point that it will magically disappear in April, but experts say there's no evidence that will be the case.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn

Some say there may be a temporary decrease only to reappear stronger in the fall.

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesn’t care that whether it’s 30ºF outside or 85ºF, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

Human proximity plays a significant role but there are studies suggesting that temperature impacts survivability and spread of certain viruses.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080330203401.htm

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25462179

[bigblock440]

snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesn’t care that whether it’s 30ºF outside or 85ºF, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

[Radagast]

I always thought it was largely because cold weather suppresses immune systems? I know for sure that   on the rare occasions I do get sick in warm weather I recover much more quickly than I do in February.

[dragoncar]

snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesn’t care that whether it’s 30ºF outside or 85ºF, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

I do think covid inactivated faster at higher temperatures.  Think your package sitting in a ups truck in the hot sun.  But the humidity quote goes the other way for me since RH is much higher here in the winter than in the summer.  Maybe it’s absolute humidity that matters?

[American GenX]

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

[Michael in ABQ]

snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesn’t care that whether it’s 30ºF outside or 85ºF, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Hmm interesting. Well I'm in a very hot and humid place so I guess I'll probably be fine. That and I'm in my 30s so the risk of death based on the data so far for someone my age is about 1 in a thousand.

[ender]

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!

[Queen Frugal]

I opened up a Roth 401k for my business this year and funded it with a piddly $500 - mostly because I just wanted something in there. I have other buckets I need to fill before filling this bucket (HSA, Roth IRA, 401k, etc.) so it's only $500. But I bought some stock today with my $500. Sale! Sale! Sale!

Not to say that I'm not worried. I am very worried. Not about my money, but about the old people in my life, about the fragile nonprofit I volunteer for and the vulnerable people we serve, how best to continue serving them in the days that are coming, how best to serve my own clients (most very vulnerable to coronavirus), and how hard the coronavirus is going to make everyone's life for a while. I am also having a very tough time wrapping my head around life in a coronavirus infected world. It's mind boggling.

I read a statistic today that new coronavirus cases have increased 13fold in the last two weeks world wide. I haven't fact checked that or anything, but if true, and the trend continues, which maybe it will or maybe it won't, but if it does, that would mean our roughly 1000 cases in the US today will be 130k in 2 weeks (sounds icky), 1.69 mil in 4 weeks (eye popping), 22 mil in 6 weeks (jaw dropping), 285 mil in 8 weeks (#@!%). My mind blown, I had to look up population of the US - apparently about 327 mil.

Wow.

[PDXTabs]

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!

I would not be at all surprised if we get to eight years ago prices.

[maizefolk]

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!

I would not be at all surprised if we get to eight years ago prices.

I will be surprised if we drop much below 2,000 (4 years ago prices). Eight years ago prices would be 1,400 and a close to -60% drop peak to trough.

In the short term though, ever since Trump's address to the nation S&P futures are flirting with their limit down for the night (currently at -4.6% at the moment, limit until the market opens tomorrow morning is -5.0%).

[PDXTabs]

Eight years ago prices would be 1,400 and a close to -60% drop peak to trough.

We were discussing the Dow and I took 55% off the record close and had to go back eight years to find that price. Since I lived through the financial crisis I'm never surprised to see the markets take 55% off the top. This might be one of those times.

[effigy98]

To not get board with the majority of my portfolio in treasuires and gold, have been doing the seesaw of SQQQ on up days to cash on down days with only about 10k. This has kept the portfolio well into the green percentage wise. Might be good as long as the fed keeps on pumping and reacting. I wouldn't do this with more then a little play money though. I think puts on HYG would be amazing right now. There are going to be massive defaults in junk bonds potentially.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

We were discussing the Dow and I took 55% off the record close and had to go back eight years to find that price. Since I lived through the financial crisis I'm never surprised to see the markets take 55% off the top.

A century ago that happened over years, during the great depression.  Besides the great depression and the financial crisis of 2008, when has the market dropped -55%?  I would say it's very, very rare, and very unlikely.  Not impossible, but not something to plan around.

[Joe Schmo]

I'm taking the view that I don't need this money for 30 years and buying as much as I can for as long as I can...thinking I can stretch it out for a year or so.

[maizefolk]

PDXTabs, didn't realize you were talking only about the dow and not the markets generally. Putting aside the particular index, I'd be surprised if we see a drop as big as the great recession and the great depression, but if it happens it happens.

Looks like S&P 500 futures did indeed hit limit down overnight again (-5%) which puts them almost exactly at 2,600. Will see where the market opens in about 15 minutes.

Edit: And now hit the first circuit breaker (-7%) shortly after opening. Just like Monday. It's deja vu all over again.

[bigblock440]

snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesn’t care that whether it’s 30ºF outside or 85ºF, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Hmm interesting. Well I'm in a very hot and humid place so I guess I'll probably be fine. That and I'm in my 30s so the risk of death based on the data so far for someone my age is about 1 in a thousand.

If you're talking about the flu, sure.  If you're talking about COVID, we don't know yet (or at least I haven't seen anything) since the coronavirus isn't an influenza virus.

[effigy98]

Use limit orders guys!

Also remember that the other day VGSH (Short term treasuries) spiked substantially up 25% the other day. Put in limit good till cancelled sell orders for weird flash moves just in case you can catch them, beat the algos and profit! Put in some orders on stocks I have wanted to own a long time but felt they were too expensive, have super low limit orders on them in case they dip really fast so I can scoop them up. there are going to be people that market order fire sale these things. Try to get in on that if you have any cash available. Might even be worth doing margin with rates so low on good quality companies that are most likely to still profit from this bear market still.

[talltexan]

I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.

[PDXTabs]

PDXTabs, didn't realize you were talking only about the dow and not the markets generally. Putting aside the particular index, I'd be surprised if we see a drop as big as the great recession and the great depression, but if it happens it happens.

The Dow is already down 27% from the top and the SP500 is already down 25% from the top, and most people in the USA haven't been put into a state of emergency yet. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I think that markets could keep falling for a long time, whether or not it is a rational reaction to the pandemic. Also, now might be when we see all those BBB- rated bonds get downgraded to junk.

[nereo]

I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.

Happy belated Birthday, Tex!

[Cabaka]

PDXTabs, didn't realize you were talking only about the dow and not the markets generally. Putting aside the particular index, I'd be surprised if we see a drop as big as the great recession and the great depression, but if it happens it happens.

The Dow is already down 27% from the top and the SP500 is already down 25% from the top, and most people in the USA haven't been put into a state of emergency yet. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I think that markets could keep falling for a long time, whether or not it is a rational reaction to the pandemic. Also, now might be when we see all those BBB- rated bonds get downgraded to junk.

second.

the nba cancelling season and trump shutting down travel to Europe just made this real for the country. maybe it just drops another 5% but expecting a reversal before april 1st at minimum and the country can get a hold of how serious it is gong to get isn't realistic.

[zygote]

I just got a giant chunk of back pay from a delayed raise, and I shoved it all in my 403b.

That was always my plan, but it sure feels nice to get the stocks at a discount.

[Chuck]

I sold my entire post tax portfolio about a week ago. 401k and HSA remain invested. So far, this has saved me about 100k. Waiting for absolute panic before buying back in. Should shave a solid three or four years off my FIRE timeline.

[American GenX]

I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.

Everything 20%?

[American GenX]

The Dow is already down 27% from the top and the SP500 is already down 25% from the top, and most people in the USA haven't been put into a state of emergency yet. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I think that markets could keep falling for a long time, whether or not it is a rational reaction to the pandemic.

S&P 500 is down almost 27% from the Feb 19 high now.  I also am expecting it to drop further.  It seems like all I'm hearing about is everything shutting down - that's got to be a big hit to the economy going forward.  A recession seems all but certain.  I'm not sure the government and Fed pushback is going to help much in this situation.  But at some point in this downward fall of stocks, I'll need to rebalance.  I had been conservatively invested at 43% equities, and a quick calculation shows I'm close to 35% equities now.  I haven't touched anything, yet.

[The_Big_H]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

[MMMdude]

Does anyone know EPS component by sector for the S&P?  I believe there are 11 sectors and trailing earnings are 180 or something like that.  Maybe if we had it by sector we could model it out abit.  OK oil and gas earnings are going to plummet - maybe one could look at the last oil crash to come up with a number there for example.  Then for the others estimate a 25% reduction in earnings or whatever.  Utilities sector probably stays steady, hell maybe even up since people staying at home more.  Anyone have this info??? 

I saw Goldman the other day still had 3200 end of year target (although dip to 2400....at the time market was at 2900).  I'm just curious how they are estimating the earnings.  Total guess of course but would be interesting.

Or conversely could people share how their businesses are doing?  I work for a construction company heavily impacted by oil and gas.  So far no impacts but this has just started, during the last oil crash many of our customers asked for immediate price relief and we had no choice but to do it.  I think everyone right now is just kind of shell shocked. 

[Bloop Bloop]

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!

I would not be at all surprised if we get to eight years ago prices.

Australian share market has now dropped to 7 year lows.

Now I don't feel quite so bad about not being able to invest in shares at all (because I spent several years paying off my first home, and have spent a few years paying off my first investment property, so most of my net worth is tied up in those two properties plus cash plus business assets).

Tempted to put all the cash into shares but might wait a few days.

[Holocene]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

That's what I've been thinking!  I just don't have the stomach for market timing.  I know if I stay in, eventually it will come back up again.  And I don't need it right now, so I'll be fine.  Good luck to all those trying to time things just right.  I hope you get back in before it's too late.  And just remember, even if you get it right this time, it doesn't mean you'll get it right every time.  Don't get too cocky.

[PDXTabs]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

[Radagast]

I tapped $4,000 of our taxable account to buy shares this afternoon because I couldn't help it. But I really need to get permission to continue.

Sadly, long term bonds have been tanking along with stocks since Monday so I have not tripped any more rebalancing bands.

[Freedomin5]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

They’re trying to time the best moment to buy in. How low can it go? How do I know when stocks are at its lowest point so I can make the biggest profit? That’s still market timing.

[FrugalSaver]

How low?  How long?
20,000 dead Americans from flu. 40,00,000 infected.

Seems media driven so far. Maybe not. Still on sidelines from 3,247

[dragoncar]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

They’re trying to time the best moment to buy in. How low can it go? How do I know when stocks are at its lowest point so I can make the biggest profit? That’s still market timing.

I admit I’m not selling but trying to figure out when to invest some extra cash.  I’d prefer to do it on a down day than an up day but I don’t watch closely enough to have pulled the trigger today

I don’t really think I can really beat the market but need more flexibility than “x amount on the Y of every month”

West coast trading hours are hard on me.  Never have time for finances in then mornings

[American GenX]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

They’re trying to time the best moment to buy in. How low can it go? How do I know when stocks are at its lowest point so I can make the biggest profit? That’s still market timing.

I'm just looking at rebalancing, which is something you should do to maintain your AA, but not immediately with every dip/drop in the market.  Studies have shown that it's best not to rebalance as frequently.

[The 585]

With this being the first big market "event" since my working career, I took advantage of it by doing some TLH yesterday in my Vanguard brokerage (my first time TLH!!). I also rebalanced back to my AA of 80% stocks 20% bonds to capture some of the stocks on sale. Who knows, it could keep dropping, but I'll just keep buying with my biweekly paycheck.

[Freedomin5]

Your IPS should include a timeline of when and how frequently you rebalance. If you can’t be online when the markets open, set a limit order the night before at a price you can accept. If you like gambling, set the limit order price at a number that is lower than the current price, and set a length of time for your order to remain active.

It’s fun for some to try to guess the market, and that’s fine, as long as you realize that questions like “How low can it go?” And “when is the best time to get in the market?” and “will it continue to drop?” are moving into gambling territory and are not necessarily sound investment questions.

[MoMoneyFewerProblems]

I haven't changed anything thus far, my auto contributions to HSA/401k/IRA/Taxable continue unchanged. I get my annual bonus next week and I will put all of that in my taxable account (Hoping the market doesn't come roaring back before I get that deposit!). I look at this as an incredible opportunity to get some great returns. I think this has all blown over in a few months and the market has recovered by year-end.

[NWOutlier]

buying more! that is what I'm doing... spent 20k more on both fidelity total stock marking and vanguard total stock market yesterday and I will continue to buy as it goes down.

I'm 52 this year -

I figure this; if my lifestyle is 100k/yr... and I have 10M dollars and the market drops 50%, what do I care?  (btw I don't have 10M ... I don't even have 2M .. and at this rate, I may not have 1M - but I will keep pushing money into this until it explodes again.)


NWOutlier (Steve)

[talltexan]

I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.

Happy belated Birthday, Tex!

Thanks! I rebalance on my birthday instead of quarter-end to try to move off market cycles.

[talltexan]

I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.

Everything 20%?

To clarify: Roth, 401K, each account has 20% bonds. Or had. I imagine that's changed in the last five weeks.

[des999]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

[des999]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

to get more back on topic, I did cash in my 11% bonds today and bought equities.  So, I did make changes in my 401k based on the Corona.  I'm currently sitting at 100% stocks.

[American GenX]

I don't have nor feel a need for an IPS, or rather everything is just in my head.  I think there was a poll on that quite a few months ago on this forum.  I've been at this for a long time, and I can make the best decision from the facts on the ground.  This virus isn't going away overnight, so I'm in no rush.  I've been placing limit orders for years.

I don't have any magic cash, but I do have quite a bit in a stable value fund in my retirement account that's part of my AA that I can use for AA rebalancing.

I fully expect to stocks to continue a downward trend after the dead cat bounce today.

[Holocene]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

There are more than I expected there to be on this forum.  Here are just the ones in this thread.  I'm sure I'm biased by all the other threads I've been reading too.  This doesn't count the people discussing how they want to market time and it's so obvious why they should, but didn't actually specifically say they were selling anything.

I am taking profits and moving to a more conservative allocations by halving my stock allocations.

I got out 70% of my investments a couple weeks ago. The rest is still in but I will leave it alone for 30 years.

I've never timed the market in my life but felt this time it was just too obvious what was going to happen. Plus the market was so overvalued to begin with.

I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243

Someone died in my state now of CV and the Governor declared emergency. I cannot stay as fully invested in the stonk market as I am and will be moving a bit out.

well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16....

I went to cash in all accounts some time ago.

[PDXTabs]

Well, when you put them all next to each other like that... I guess you have a point.

EDITed to add - I'm still 100% VT, save for a tiny emergency fund.

[frugalnacho]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

I raided my emergency fund.  Investing more when the markets on a fire sale is an emergency.

[the_fixer]

Planning to do a Roth conversion on an IRA while the value is down not changing my allocation.

For my 401k I am changing my contribution to the 70% max my company will allow and maxing my HSA in the next couple of paychecks to try and buy as much as I can during this period. Company has an automatic match so maxing out my 401k early has no effect on the match.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DadJokes]

"The rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."

-The market

[use2betrix]

Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?

funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

You can search my posts for 1-2 years that I keep 1-2 years of living expenses in cash instead of bonds, due to the volatility of my work. It had slowly inflated into over 2 years of expenses (around $110k-$120k) in cash, so this seemed like a good time to drop it back down to 1 year. Once the Dow hits around 28k or 29k I’ll start building the fund back up.

Basically has always been my plan. Like having 2 years savings then primarily invested in VTSAX, but knew if a strong downturn came, I could lighten up the emergency fund.