It's almost like no one has any idea and trying to predict and time the market is futile?
Earlier this year, I assumed Iran would attack the U.S., and send oil higher. Then Iran accidentally shot down a civilian airplane, and suddenly nobody cared about a lone drone strike on Sulemani. I was wrong to predict global events.
Yesterday I couldn't separate COVID-19 from oil prices - it looks like both were factors in the -8% price drop. Per the paragraph above, I can't predict oil. I just let it be.
For COVID-19, I've watched it play out in the same way repeatedly. China shut down an entire province, and Beijing was deserted. Italy is on lock down now. In both cases, people stop shopping and stop working. It's a double economic hit to both consumption and production. So if it hits the U.S. hard, the impact should be much greater than just -5%.
Look at the U.S. situation: 700+ cases, rising quickly. Let me quote the CDC:
"It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html#anchor_1582494216224I understand people are hopeful and think the U.S. is different. But the data paints a different picture, as does the CDC. That's why I think a roughly -5% market drop (-8% +3%) is too small to represent what happens next with COVID-19.
If I'm wrong, the stock markets will be fine through March 20. Nothing will happen for the next 10 days.
If I'm right, a new panic will occur and it will be time to buy stocks on sale. I'll probably buy too early - which is fine. My goal is just to prove the markets under-estimated the crisis, and I got it right.