My prediction of 1,000 U.S. cases by next Mon/Tues seems quaint now that the U.S. has over 500 COVID-19 cases. The question is what comes next, and I spent a few hours thinking about it. I decided to move some equities into bonds, and await the next panic. I expect there will be an additional panic at 10,000 U.S. cases of COVID-19.
The U.S. market is down -5.4% so far today, with international down -5.7%. I actually submitted limit orders that triggered at the market open (it worked!), but wound up selling at 1.3% lower than current prices. Selling ETF gives me a credit, which I then used to buy a long-term treasury ETF and gold. That ETF was up +10% when I bought, and is up +7% now, so I paid about +3.5% more than current prices. Similarly, gold is slightly down, and I paid +0.6% more there. So combine those two, and it's about +3.1% higher cost for buying early, compared to current market prices.
Essentially I'm predicting the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases of corona virus and trigger another panic. But I expect some time before or after that, I'll see a repeat of Friday Feb 28th where the market is 100% in panic mode. I plan to reverse half my trades on each of those panics. Time to wait and see.