Earlier in this thread I predicted ~5 days in advance when China would hit 10,000 cases and cause a media panic. I assumed existing cases would grow at a similar rate, and that the media likes big round numbers. It looks like another country has cases doubling every ~4 days, roughly... but some days America reports no new cases. It's hard to see the pattern when some days cases jump +70% and others +0%.
My theory is that the U.S. media is hesitating in the face of uncertainty, and will sound the alarm at ~1000 cases in the U.S. Some Americans are stockpiling, others are attending large events. Looking at WHO data for March, the best fit I have for the data is +20% per day. Plotting that out, I estimate ~1000 cases by next Monday or Tuesday (March 16-17).
The virus could spread rapidly, and the U.S. has much higher production of test kits now. So maybe my estimate is too slow, and ~1000 cases will occur sooner. I have trouble coming up with a case where the spread stops quickly.... several states have confirmed cases, there's no quarantine measures in place, and production of test kits are lagging.
For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction. Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation. In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.