Author Topic: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?  (Read 50528 times)

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 476
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #250 on: March 06, 2020, 05:16:44 AM »
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

Yes, which is why I said previously that I wasn't surprised at the drop of 12.8% by Friday's close down from the Feb 19th high close of the S&P 500 and that I expected it to go lower since there was more reason for it than the drop we saw Oct to Dec 2018 of about 20%.

This is serious.  Things are looking worse since that post a few days ago.  I haven't see anything to make me change my expectations that the market is going to keep dropping and will likely send us into a recession with a slow recovery.  The bull market was fun while it lasted.   I'm staying put with my AA, which means I'm going to need to rebalance at times as stocks continue to drop.

bigblock440

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 193
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #251 on: March 06, 2020, 05:55:34 AM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

+1 to both of these.  Seeing the market drop 3-5% almost every day last week and the large up-down swings this week has been kind of surreal.  Before, it was quite unusual to get changes of 2% in one day.  In the last 2 weeks, that has been the norm to where I find myself expecting it.  I'm glad I haven't felt any urges to sell yet, but I can understand that a prolonged period of market uncertainty could be mentally taxing and stressful.  Doing my monthly asset calculations and realizing I was down $45k in one month was a little sobering.  If this happens for months on end, I'm sure it will get discouraging.  I hope I can continue to stay the course.  You don't lose money until you sell!

I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now." 

YttriumNitrate

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1043
  • Location: Northwest Indiana
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #252 on: March 06, 2020, 06:11:09 AM »
I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

People sell because they think things are going to get worse and can't stomach the loses. Sometimes, they're right. In hindsight, a person who sold after the market dropped 20% in 2007-2008 was right.

Getmeouttahere

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #253 on: March 06, 2020, 06:25:19 AM »
How were they right if the market eventually gained? Are you assuming they shorted their investments and bought in at a lower rate?

appleshampooid

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 301
  • Relentless Snacker
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #254 on: March 06, 2020, 06:34:52 AM »
This is what is great about being an old codger.  The recent pullback is a big yawner.   Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   I cannot emphasize enough what a nothingburger this is.  And by that I mean from an investing standpoint.  Of course the coronavirus is a big deal.   But unexpected events like this happen all the time.  The market is back to what it was, what?  six months ago?  BFD.  Even if it was back to where it was two years ago BFD.  This is exactly what we should expect when investing in the stock market.  This is what we signed up for.  The market will go crazy for a period of time.  Maybe years, I dunno.  And then everything will work out fine. 

Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.
Yep, and if the market weren't volatile like this, there would be no risk premium because everyone would be in it. I think. Maybe I need more coffee.

effigy98

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 431
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #255 on: March 06, 2020, 08:15:54 AM »
TMF up 16% today... INSANE. Gold, Guns, and Treasuries! Put a little in SQQQ on those major spike days and that has paid off each time as well.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 08:20:41 AM by effigy98 »

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1723
  • One Does Not Simply Work Into Mordor
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #256 on: March 06, 2020, 10:13:19 AM »
Holy shit snacks! I was pretty proud of myself for selling long term government bonds at a freak intraday all-time high for $167 earlier in the week. This morning they rose 9%, above $180! At this rate I will be rebalancing again soon, I may want to set the band higher since I have already rebalanced twice since August.

TMF up 16% today... INSANE.
Cute to look at, but I would choose EDV or ZROZ if I actually wanted to own something like this.

Vapour

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 138
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #257 on: March 06, 2020, 12:46:26 PM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

+1 to both of these.  Seeing the market drop 3-5% almost every day last week and the large up-down swings this week has been kind of surreal.  Before, it was quite unusual to get changes of 2% in one day.  In the last 2 weeks, that has been the norm to where I find myself expecting it.  I'm glad I haven't felt any urges to sell yet, but I can understand that a prolonged period of market uncertainty could be mentally taxing and stressful.  Doing my monthly asset calculations and realizing I was down $45k in one month was a little sobering.  If this happens for months on end, I'm sure it will get discouraging.  I hope I can continue to stay the course.  You don't lose money until you sell!

I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

Agreed.  That's where I'm at right now too.  But I'm sure it's a lot harder to think logically about it after seeing your investments get battered for months on end and losing years of hard-earned savings and constantly hearing media or coworkers freaking out about the crash.  My first instinct last week was also to buy more, which I did.  I'm happy we're down again today since I get paid today and will have around $2k going into investments.  I'm just saying that after seeing all the craziness of the last 2 weeks, I can definitely understand why it gets harder to stay the course and ignore the noise in periods of market uncertainty and long downward trends.

Vapour

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 138
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #258 on: March 06, 2020, 12:56:00 PM »
I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

People sell because they think things are going to get worse and can't stomach the loses. Sometimes, they're right. In hindsight, a person who sold after the market dropped 20% in 2007-2008 was right.
They'd only be right if they knew when to get back in.  That's always the problem.  You need to be right twice, and the chances of that are quite low.  After dropping 20%, it could have rebounded right back up like it did at the end of 2018.  Or it could drop another 20%.  There's a reason market timing gets a bad rap.  It's super hard to get it right.  Sometimes the best and simplest action is to do nothing.  It's not always easy to do that when the world around you is freaking out.  But choosing an asset allocation that fits your risk tolerance and sticking to it in good times and bad is the quickest way to FI, IMO.

Ricochet

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
  • Location: District of Corruption
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #259 on: March 06, 2020, 01:41:17 PM »
This is what is great about being an old codger.  The recent pullback is a big yawner.   Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   I cannot emphasize enough what a nothingburger this is.  And by that I mean from an investing standpoint.  Of course the coronavirus is a big deal.   But unexpected events like this happen all the time.  The market is back to what it was, what?  six months ago?  BFD.  Even if it was back to where it was two years ago BFD.  This is exactly what we should expect when investing in the stock market.  This is what we signed up for.  The market will go crazy for a period of time.  Maybe years, I dunno.  And then everything will work out fine. 

Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.
I'll drink to that. Cheers, and time will heal.

ChpBstrd

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2307
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #260 on: March 06, 2020, 02:41:56 PM »
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
  • Displaying your outrage accomplishes nothing.
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #261 on: March 06, 2020, 02:57:16 PM »
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

You're on for bragging rights. Hmmm.  I'll take a little longer.  A good panic needs some time.  April 2nd.

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 476
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #262 on: March 06, 2020, 04:41:18 PM »
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

You're on for bragging rights. Hmmm.  I'll take a little longer.  A good panic needs some time.  April 2nd.

I was about to say March 24th is way too early, but I think it will continue to trend down well beyond April 2nd, although there will be volatility along the way until it finds a new bottom.

frugalnacho

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4201
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Madison Heights, Michigan
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #263 on: March 06, 2020, 06:06:30 PM »
June 1 will be the bottom. You heard it here first.

Steeze

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 698
  • Age: 33
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #264 on: March 06, 2020, 06:36:00 PM »
I want to play!

July 1st - sp500 2750

I drew lines on a chart for 15 minutes to figure that out.

Edit: 2750 from 2825.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 06:38:30 PM by Steeze »

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1723
  • One Does Not Simply Work Into Mordor
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #265 on: March 06, 2020, 07:17:11 PM »
OOH OOH! March 24 @ 1,552.87!

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1811
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #266 on: March 06, 2020, 10:16:20 PM »
OOH OOH! March 24 @ 1,552.87!

1552.87 ... wowsa that would suck.

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1723
  • One Does Not Simply Work Into Mordor
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #267 on: March 06, 2020, 10:49:56 PM »
OOH OOH! March 24 @ 1,552.87!

1552.87 ... wowsa that would suck.
That's the S&P500 tech bubble top. And 20th anniversary :)

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4283
  • Location: Texas
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #268 on: March 07, 2020, 12:24:40 PM »
I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

People sell because they think things are going to get worse and can't stomach the loses. Sometimes, they're right. In hindsight, a person who sold after the market dropped 20% in 2007-2008 was right.

Well, they were right if they bought back in while the market was lower. Many people who pulled out just stayed out and missed the runup.

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1811
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #269 on: March 07, 2020, 01:34:03 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Michael in ABQ

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1092
    • Military Saints
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #270 on: March 07, 2020, 01:53:08 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.

ChpBstrd

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2307
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #271 on: March 07, 2020, 07:47:51 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

I've found that when 100% of finance journalists and internet people agree that ONLY THIS ONE THING CAN HAPPEN, the only thing that cannot possibly happen is that one thing.

See you all March 24th.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
  • Displaying your outrage accomplishes nothing.
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #272 on: March 07, 2020, 07:54:36 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

I've found that when 100% of finance journalists and internet people agree that ONLY THIS ONE THING CAN HAPPEN, the only thing that cannot possibly happen is that one thing.

See you all March 24th.

You been watching whats up with oil? Monday morning will be Very Interesting indeed.

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4798
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #273 on: March 07, 2020, 08:11:44 PM »
Pretty much every market open for the last two weeks has become "very interesting."

At this point, either we'll see a big swing up or down, which will be very interesting. Or we'll see no movement, which will be very surprising.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
  • Registered member
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #274 on: March 07, 2020, 10:07:29 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

An efficient market would have this priced in already.  You can only gain an advantage if you knew how bad it will get before everyone else.

In this case, through we know earnings will take a hit, nobody knows how long the problem will last.  I wonder what kind of hit is priced in and how your gut feeling on how bad it will be compared to that pricing.

Curious if we see bumped earnings due to ridiculous stockpiling of consumer goods.  It seems to me that many people are moving planned purchases forward in time

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4283
  • Location: Texas
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #275 on: March 08, 2020, 08:12:54 AM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

An efficient market would have this priced in already.  You can only gain an advantage if you knew how bad it will get before everyone else.

In this case, through we know earnings will take a hit, nobody knows how long the problem will last.  I wonder what kind of hit is priced in and how your gut feeling on how bad it will be compared to that pricing.

Curious if we see bumped earnings due to ridiculous stockpiling of consumer goods.  It seems to me that many people are moving planned purchases forward in time

Personally, I think it's not priced in appropriately yet. I'm also joining the "Monday will be interesting" crowd ;)

I expect at least a 30% drop from the high in most major stock indices. That said, I haven't sold anything - on the flip side, I'm dawdling a bit with putting in the cash which is being freed up from some nice bank account signup bonuses.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
  • Displaying your outrage accomplishes nothing.
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #276 on: March 08, 2020, 09:07:28 AM »

Personally, I think it's not priced in appropriately yet. I'm also joining the "Monday will be interesting" crowd ;)

I expect at least a 30% drop from the high in most major stock indices. That said, I haven't sold anything - on the flip side, I'm dawdling a bit with putting in the cash which is being freed up from some nice bank account signup bonuses.

Hmm. Yeah, 30-40%+ sounds about right.  Depends on the country and sector. The US market was already very pricey.  It still has lots of room to drop. 

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1811
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #277 on: March 08, 2020, 09:12:46 AM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.

I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??

jojoguy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 279
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #278 on: March 08, 2020, 09:21:36 AM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
  • Displaying your outrage accomplishes nothing.
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #279 on: March 08, 2020, 10:12:05 AM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.

Oil is another factor, and I think the big story of the weekend.  Russia refused to agree to reduce production with OPEC on Friday and Saudi Arabia has drastically cut oil prices and is preparing to significantly increase supply.  An oil price war is on. Great for countries that are net consumers, not so good for  net exporters like the US. All this at a time when oil demand is dropping.

We're living in Interesting Times. 

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4798
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #280 on: March 08, 2020, 10:27:30 AM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.

OTOH, I could see China rushing a vaccine through trials and into mass production much much faster than we can manage in the USA. I wouldn't be all that surprised if poor factory workers in China end up vaccinated against this new virus before affluent middle class people in the US are vaccinated.

Keep in mind that China, while keeping hundreds of millions of people locked down, has ramped coronavirus testing to the point where they are now testing more than 200,000 people a day.

Here in the US, with just as much warning, and without the handicap of widespread lockdowns and quarantines messing with our economy and supply chains, the CDC botched developing our own test. In the past week it appears we managed a grant total of less than 1,600 tests, barely 200 people tested per day.

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 476
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #281 on: March 08, 2020, 10:40:22 AM »

Personally, I think it's not priced in appropriately yet. I'm also joining the "Monday will be interesting" crowd ;)

I expect at least a 30% drop from the high in most major stock indices. That said, I haven't sold anything - on the flip side, I'm dawdling a bit with putting in the cash which is being freed up from some nice bank account signup bonuses.

Hmm. Yeah, 30-40%+ sounds about right.  Depends on the country and sector. The US market was already very pricey.  It still has lots of room to drop.

40% might be even worse than my pessimistic view on this, but I wouldn't be surprised.

A 30% drop in the S&P 500 from the Feb 19'th closing high would take us about to where the index bottomed out on Dec 24, 2018 at 2351, which was about a 20% drop from Sept 2018.

NVDee

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 38
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #282 on: March 08, 2020, 10:45:18 AM »
We have done nothing, except stopped looking at our accounts.  Occasionally looking at the index charts on the phone, but will wait until the valley is level with the Top again before I log on again.

This does bring a conundrum because our IPS has us transferring our annually accumulated higher cost funds from employers Sunlife to lower cost Vanguard now, but the volatility tells me to hold on selling.  Transfer in in kind isn't an option.

BikeLover

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #283 on: March 08, 2020, 10:56:00 AM »
Many persons are over-reacting by excessive hoarding of various items. I assume quite a few stock owners will also over-react, selling stocks or holding off from buying them. I don't see any particularly plausible reason to assume big investment firms or very wealthy stock owners are underrating the seriousness of the risk. So, I assume that all in all the market has already priced in, or even exaggerated the risk; it's a good time to buy, at least for those investing for the long term.

There are a number of possible developments that on the other or severally could mitigate the severity of the issue caused by the disease. It might spread a lot less in the summer, as influenza does. A vaccine might be mass produced in the coming months. Or testing might be made very simple, thus making containment much easier.

On the last point, I'm surprised that the test discovered by a biotech company in Salzburg hasn't been more in the news, that gives results in half an hour!

https://shop.procomcure.com/produkt/phoenixdx-2019-ncov-rna-detection-kit/

Vapour

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 138
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #284 on: March 08, 2020, 11:50:31 AM »
I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??
Unless you get in after it's already gone back up.  That's where you have to be right the 2nd time.  At what point are you deciding to get back in?  After a 10% drop? 20%?  Let's say you sell and stocks go down 5%.  Yay, you were right once!  Do you buy back in now?  Or do you wait for another 5% because surely it must go lower, right?  Let's say you decide to wait and it never gets to 10% down but instead goes back up to where it was when you sold it.  Do you buy back in now (for no net gain but at least no loss from where you started) or continue to wait because there's no way the markets continue to march up for the next 6 months?  Well, then it's possible that markets DO go up for the next 6 months and you're still on the sidelines missing any gains.  That's why market timing is so dangerous.  Even though you were "right" to sell before the first loss, you're now out of the market because you were "wrong" about when to get back in.  In general, the stock market goes up.  So by keeping money out of the stock market, you're more likely to miss out on gains than you are to save yourself from losses.

I've been hearing for the last 5 years at least that the market is overpriced and there's no way it can continue going up.  Well, I'm glad I ignored that noise as it's made me a ton of money.  This time may seem scarier as there's a global pandemic associated with it, but I think the same principles apply.  Just because no one thinks it can possibly go up right now doesn't mean it can't.  I plan to just keep buying whether it goes up or down.  Either I get to buy more shares or my shares are worth more.  Eventually this will just be a blip on the radar and I'll be glad I stayed the course.  Or I'm wrong and the entire economy collapses.  But in that case, I'm probably screwed no matter what I decide to do.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2582
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #285 on: March 08, 2020, 03:10:01 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.

I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??

So why not take advantage of this opportunity?

meghan88

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 788
  • Location: Montreal
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #286 on: March 08, 2020, 03:50:55 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.

Oil is another factor, and I think the big story of the weekend.  Russia refused to agree to reduce production with OPEC on Friday and Saudi Arabia has drastically cut oil prices and is preparing to significantly increase supply.  An oil price war is on. Great for countries that are net consumers, not so good for  net exporters like the US. All this at a time when oil demand is dropping.

We're living in Interesting Times.

I agree re. oil.  Interesting Times, indeed.  This will definitely knock a few oil companies out of the market.  And it will present a good opportunity for those with strong stomachs who can place a couple of speculative bets on the eventual survivors who've hedged appropriately or have other means to wait it out.  Oil (despite all its ills, and the advent of green tech) is not going anywhere any time soon, unless all planes stop flying, or until all plastics are replaced with something else.  And I am all for green tech, but I imagine it takes time and a whole lot of $ to retrofit facilities to change to an alternate fuel.

Our Canadian petro-dollar is on a race to the bottom, as usual, when stuff like this happens.  Less than three weeks ago, the Euro was worth 1.43 $Cdn; now it's worth 1.53 $Cdn and it aint done yet.  In the meantime, U.S. tech companies are ramping up recruiting in Canada, and they will reap the results in lower operating costs, so maybe that will help the growing tech industry here.

More cynically (and for a general comment on where we're headed ecologically), there's this article from the Irish Times:  https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-covid-19-has-come-to-tell-us-that-we-are-not-the-kings-of-the-world-1.4192749.  Main message:  there are limits to human control of the world.


v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1811
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #287 on: March 08, 2020, 03:53:31 PM »
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.

I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??

So why not take advantage of this opportunity?

I am thinking I might have to.

mjones1234

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 57
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #288 on: March 08, 2020, 05:13:03 PM »
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago. But it was only because I started thinking about Warren B and the cash he's been amassing. I thought "who am I to think I'm wiser than Warren?". When he begins buying, I'll do the same, but months later as I won't know until after the shareholder meeting.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2985
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #289 on: March 08, 2020, 09:17:40 PM »
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago. But it was only because I started thinking about Warren B and the cash he's been amassing. I thought "who am I to think I'm wiser than Warren?". When he begins buying, I'll do the same, but months later as I won't know until after the shareholder meeting.
The data I see online is $128 billion in cash, with a $500 billion market cap.  I assume he's been buying now, given the current crisis.. but still, call that 25% cash for one of the world's top investors.  Not all cash.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4259
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #290 on: March 08, 2020, 09:44:40 PM »
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago. But it was only because I started thinking about Warren B and the cash he's been amassing. I thought "who am I to think I'm wiser than Warren?". When he begins buying, I'll do the same, but months later as I won't know until after the shareholder meeting.

I'd love to see Buffett's reaction if you told him your interpretation... he has opined before about what normal investors should be doing, regardless of market conditions. And it's not to sit on a pile of cash.

-W

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2985
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #291 on: March 08, 2020, 09:49:49 PM »
Earlier in this thread I predicted ~5 days in advance when China would hit 10,000 cases and cause a media panic.  I assumed existing cases would grow at a similar rate, and that the media likes big round numbers.  It looks like another country has cases doubling every ~4 days, roughly... but some days America reports no new cases.  It's hard to see the pattern when some days cases jump +70% and others +0%.

My theory is that the U.S. media is hesitating in the face of uncertainty, and will sound the alarm at ~1000 cases in the U.S.  Some Americans are stockpiling, others are attending large events.  Looking at WHO data for March, the best fit I have for the data is +20% per day.  Plotting that out, I estimate ~1000 cases by next Monday or Tuesday (March 16-17).

The virus could spread rapidly, and the U.S. has much higher production of test kits now.  So maybe my estimate is too slow, and ~1000 cases will occur sooner.  I have trouble coming up with a case where the spread stops quickly.... several states have confirmed cases, there's no quarantine measures in place, and production of test kits are lagging.

For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.

Telecaster

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2312
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #292 on: March 08, 2020, 09:53:07 PM »
Here in the US, with just as much warning, and without the handicap of widespread lockdowns and quarantines messing with our economy and supply chains, the CDC botched developing our own test. In the past week it appears we managed a grant total of less than 1,600 tests, barely 200 people tested per day.

It is worse than that.  We had the option of using the existing WHO test while developing our own, but rejected the WHO test because it wasn't invented here.   

Telecaster

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2312
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #293 on: March 08, 2020, 09:54:23 PM »
For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.

I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases two days from now:  March 8. 

Michael in ABQ

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1092
    • Military Saints
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #294 on: March 08, 2020, 10:09:24 PM »
Stocks are going to open down a bit on Monday since futures are already down -5%. That and oil is dropping like a rock.

I'm not paying for gas right now so no benefit there. Though my state's budget is heavily dependent on oil (NM is the third largest oil producer now). Of course with the windfall of cash from higher prices and production all sorts of new spending was just added to the budget that was signed a few weeks ago.

On Friday when my next 401k investment is made I suspect I'll be picking up a few more shares than I did two weeks earlier.

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 476
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #295 on: March 08, 2020, 10:35:14 PM »
For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.

I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases two days from now:  March 8.

That would be March 10, but we could already be there.  There's no way to know when the tests haven't been done.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2985
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #296 on: March 09, 2020, 03:09:02 AM »
For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.
I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases two days from now:  March 8.
In New York, it's 5 am on March 9 right now.  But I think 48 hours from now, your prediction will be closer than mine.

I just read the following in the sidebar of a BBC article: "Number of United States cases exceeds 500", and then found it in a CNBC article:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-live-updates-grand-princess-to-disembark-passengers.html

Keep in mind for markets, it's when the news hits that matters.  If the U.S. has 1,000 cases now, but nobody knows about it, that's great inside information - but it doesn't impact markets.  As soon as that information becomes available, it will impact markets.  So it's "when the news shows 1,000 cases" rather than when the U.S. hits 1,000 cases without knowing it.

The U.S. just jumped from 200 cases to 500 cases... and I had to search to find that information?  That reinforces my theory: cases are growing very rapidly in the U.S., and the media aren't focused on the U.S. impact as yet (I could be wrong about that, at any moment).

The -5% drop in S&P 500 futures suggests the market is aware of the problem.  But I think it's worse than expected, and the panic at 1,000 may be followed by further panic.  It could be another long week.

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4798
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #297 on: March 09, 2020, 06:24:40 AM »
The -5% drop in S&P 500 futures suggests the market is aware of the problem.  But I think it's worse than expected, and the panic at 1,000 may be followed by further panic.  It could be another long week.

That -5% is determined by trading limits on stock market index futures contracts. So there could be a bit more awareness/concern/panic baked in to people's expectations than we're seeing from the futures.

My best guess is that the S&P 500 opens down 6-7%, comparable to european and australian markets, worse than asian markets.

But of course if I was any good at predicting what the stock market would do, I'd be doing that, not watching from my kitchen table over breakfast.

Edit: Opened at -6.7%. Hit -7% in the first six minutes of trading.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 07:38:14 AM by maizeman »

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1811
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #298 on: March 09, 2020, 07:36:50 AM »
7% circuit breaker has been tripped!  Market is currently paused.

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4798
Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #299 on: March 09, 2020, 07:39:10 AM »
Wow! I think this may be the first time we've ever actually hit a circuit breaker. (In fairness the 7% and 13% breakers are less than a decade old, so that's not quite as exciting as it sounds.)