@MustacheAndaHalf,
Those are confirmed cases, I would direct you here and here. Especially the exponential graph on the NYT piece.
Thanks for sharing those sources. I haven't seen the rate of spread of coronovirus pictured next to SARS, so that was new. I think that's a cautionary tale about what happens if coronavirus has another outbreak outside China. So far, despite dozens of countries confirming cases, there hasn't been an outbreak in a second country. It's a bit difficult to see if that graph is growing more slowly at the top - does it look smooth and consistent to you? At first the virus grew +50%, but after ~4500 cases, it slowed and is now closer to +26% / day.
Also, I've changed my view on the virus spreading before symptoms are present. WHO takes the view it only spreads after someone shows symptoms. Despite how fast the virus spreads, there haven't been outbreaks in the many countries where cases were detected. If it was easy to slip through, that would seem unlikely. Also, quarantine isn't as effective if you don't know who has the virus. The slowing growth rate also suggests measures are having an impact.
The sad thing is the hospital situation. I saw an interview a few days ago where a man complained "There are hospitals with virus test kits - but they have no beds. No room for new patients. And then there's hospitals who have room, but no virus test kits." They basically couldn't find anywhere to be diagnosed, and then quarantined.
The second article seems more speculative, saying tourists outside China might be spreading the virus. So far, there aren't outbreaks outside China. There's individual cases caught on arrival, and some human to human transmission. If the virus was spreading 50x faster than is claimed (2k cases vs 100k cases), why is nothing happening outside one region of China?
Early on, it's safe to worry that China might hide data like they did with SARS. But China has loosened censorship - even allowing people to openly criticize how the government handles the virus. A co-worker of mine once explained China's government as "When it's good, it's very good. But when it's bad... it's very bad." They act decisively, wrong or right. Right now, it looks like China is doing a better job containing the virus than most countries would - shutting down transportation, celebrations and public gatherings. Given all the information I have, I think they're telling truthful numbers on the number of cases. They may have systemic problems with reporting data, but I think they are trying to act in a way that will make Chinese citizens satisfied with their handling of the crisis.
So I don't buy the 100,000 speculative number, and point to the "nearly 10,000 cases" in most news sources as the correct one. I could be wrong on that, but here more of the data seems to show a lower number.
China is dramatically building hospitals in only ~7 days, from scratch. Which sounds hard to believe, until you realize how fast China constructs cities from scratch. Patients wandering around with coronavirus isn't ideal for containing an outbreak... and those new hospitals (2, I think) will help. Given the lack of outbreaks outside China and the draconian measures used to contain the virus (no buses/planes/subways in Wuhan are running), I'm guessing they will succeed.
So if I'm right on that, an unknown amount of time later the outbreak will be contained, and stocks will return to normal levels. I buy on Monday to rebalance back to my asset allocation... and then later international surges upwards, and I'll sell to rebalance my asset allocation.