Author Topic: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?  (Read 50525 times)

FrugalSaver

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Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« on: January 26, 2020, 10:42:03 PM »
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now

shinn497

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2020, 11:17:49 PM »


There are 11 Million people that live in wuhan. less than 3000 have contracted the virus. That is .027% of the population. The fact that they know about it and are able to take precautions against it is a good sign. Similiar thing for here in the us. The CDC hasn't issued any warnings except to wash your hands and don't go to wuhan.

It is going to be fine. Don't take action. You will forget about this in a month.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 11:24:39 PM by shinn497 »

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2020, 11:55:03 PM »
Going all in on hazmat suit manufacturers

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2020, 04:48:25 AM »
There is no chance the number of cases stops at 3,000.  If someone makes that bet, take it.  I expect over 4,000 by tomorrow, let alone by next week.

The spread of the virus is alarming: 1400... 2000... 3000.  That's +50% per day, and it's kept up that pace for awhile.  Even more disturbing, it has a 1 to 14 day incubation period, where someone without symptoms can spread the virus.  The measures you see on TV, checking temperature, are a good start - but can't contain a virus that is contagious 2 weeks before someone gets a fever.

I would expect airlines and hotels to be most impacted by the virus.  Maybe you want to avoid them, or use "shorting" to bet on them dropping.

If you take 3,000 cases now and extrapolate +50% over the next few days: 4,500.. 6700.. 10,000.
It couldpass 10,000 cases by the end of the week, which I'm guessing will cause more panic.  Even though this virus is less lethal than SARS, people will probably view it the same way, and panic more than they should.

Ready2Save27

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2020, 04:51:49 AM »
I agree that you should not take any action. Here are some key reasons:
-It is being blown way out of proportion. Not that many people are dead from it compared to a cold/flu
-There are always scary headlines. If you jumped at every headline, youd give up a lot of gains
-You cant time the market. The market may not react much to this, but even if it did and we assume youre right, when would you go back in/switch back to your current allocation? Now you need to time the market again, or you can miss out on gains.

The point of index funds is so that you ride with the market. You could absolutely be right about this, but it isnt worth the risk of missing out on gains for every headline you hear. Just stick with your investment strategy.

daverobev

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2020, 04:56:55 AM »
Bought some Emerging Market ETFs and HSBC this morning.

DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2020, 07:19:51 AM »
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.

Phenix

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2020, 07:21:51 AM »
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.

Username checks out.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2020, 07:59:25 AM »
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.

We should be setting up portfolio de-sanitizing stations around here

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2020, 08:31:50 AM »
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now

I'm doing the same thing in terms of my investments I do every time there is a big news story....nothing. My AA was designed with a 50 year time horizon. Shit is going to go sideways in all sorts of big ways over that time-frame. In much more significant ways than this virus. My investments plan is to stay the course with a globally diversified portfolio.

matchewed

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2020, 09:53:50 AM »
Do the same thing you do when there isn't a virus outbreak in another country.

Cabaka

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2020, 09:58:43 AM »

going to take at least a week, maybe 2 or more before realistic infection and fatality rates are known and the ability to contain.

historically, the mkts have been known to sell off in late January on something; so this is not unexpected and they even recovered very quickly from ebola; but going back to zero gains for the year is definitely possible before going back up.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2020, 09:59:18 AM »
Apparently the markets are all spun up over this disease. International markets dropped by 2-3%. I dont see why the angst; Captain Trips this aint.

Still, I think it only prudent to carefully consider the ramifications of this sort of thing. To evaluate the risks that the market is clearly pricing in, to understand what negative impacts this might mean to my portfolio, and to take action*. Efficient market hypothesis and all.

So I bought more.

RED ALERT!  STOCKS ARE ON SALE TODAY!!!!!

*(It took me a whole 5 minutes. Including the time spent laughing and logging on to my account.)

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2020, 10:02:05 AM »
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.

Thats prudent. Make sure and wash your hands. You might want to talk to your account statement in soothing tones as well.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2020, 10:03:50 AM »
Perspective.  A large natural disaster can disrupt work for millions of people and can kill hundreds (occasionally thousands). Armed conflict impacts similar numbers of people.  Those are rarely more than a blip on a quarterly market report.
The Coronavirus may very well infect tens-of-thousands, if not hundreds-of-thousands of people and quite likely will kill a few thousand before all is said and done.  Thats horrible and deserves our attention and resources.

... but the average investor isnt likely to notice. For that to happen it will need to infect tens-of-millions.  We are - as of today - a very long way from that.

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2020, 10:07:14 AM »
This is market timing.  Don't do it.  Are you a market-timer?  Do you believe trying to time the market is a good idea?  Do you have any solid reason to believe you will be better at it than the vast majority who try it?  Do you have some insider knowledge that allows you to understand how  this will affect the market (but still legally trade)?

Do you have a basic in investment plan and if so, does it include anything about how to respond to the very beginnings of a new disease for which there is no solid idea at all about what will happen, and then even less sure what that will do the the markets long, medium, or even fairly short term? 

Market timing=bad.  Don't do it.  EOD


YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2020, 10:17:23 AM »
Perspective.  A large natural disaster can disrupt work for millions of people and can kill hundreds (occasionally thousands). Armed conflict impacts similar numbers of people.  Those are rarely more than a blip on a quarterly market report.
The Coronavirus may very well infect tens-of-thousands, if not hundreds-of-thousands of people and quite likely will kill a few thousand before all is said and done.  Thats horrible and deserves our attention and resources.

... but the average investor isnt likely to notice. For that to happen it will need to infect tens-of-millions.  We are - as of today - a very long way from that.

From a cold-hearted investor perspective, it seems that the most likely hit will come from the loss in productivity to prevent the disease rather than actual deaths. For example, a typical person has about 10,000 working days in their life, so if 10,000 people die that's a loss of 100 million working days. If an area of 50 million people is shut down for just 3-4 days we get a similar loss in productivity.

appleshampooid

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2020, 11:01:19 AM »
I'm not doing anything actively, but I am flexing my wish muscle extra hard that the dip lasts through Wednesday as that is when my 401(k) contribution will hit. C'mon fearmongerers....keep doing your thing for another couple days!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2020, 11:26:41 AM »
First, I shat my pants.
Second, I sold everything.
Third, I bought gold coins from a commercial on Fox News.
Fourth, I realized that my gold coins will be at risk, so I bought all the ammo at WalMart and sandbagged the doors and windows of my house. Exhausted, but done.
Fifth, I purchased a pallet of canned Beenie Weenies - Enough calories and nutrition to last me a year so I dont have to leave the house and get exposed or cannibalized.
Sixth, I changed pants and took a shower.
Seventh, this made me realize I was low on toilet paper. Off to Sams club with a rented Uhaul truck now - soon as I get through the sandbags.

Good luck out there. I feel especially sorry for those who were too slow to take IMMEDIATE ACTION.

Stimpy

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2020, 11:39:49 AM »
First, I shat my pants.
Second, I sold everything.
Third, I bought gold coins from a commercial on Fox News.
Fourth, I realized that my gold coins will be at risk, so I bought all the ammo at WalMart and sandbagged the doors and windows of my house. Exhausted, but done.
Fifth, I purchased a pallet of canned Beenie Weenies - Enough calories and nutrition to last me a year so I dont have to leave the house and get exposed or cannibalized.
Sixth, I changed pants and took a shower.
Seventh, this made me realize I was low on toilet paper. Off to Sams club with a rented Uhaul truck now - soon as I get through the sandbags.

Good luck out there. I feel especially sorry for those who were too slow to take IMMEDIATE ACTION.

This sounds about right for the layman........      For everyone else there's Visa. 

Jokes aside, the plan was made for the long term.  I suspect the infected numbers are bigger in China then is what being said but, honestly, don't care.  If this is the start of Armageddon, stock are useless and nothing anyone can do will save us.  If it's not Armageddon then buy the dip and call it a day.  Either way no reason stop following the plan.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2020, 11:49:04 AM »
hasnt everyone else moved 100% to cash by now? Aside from de-risking financially, we've got a set of full face respirators, several gallons of viricide and we're keeping the kids home from school until things blow over.

js82

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2020, 03:55:43 PM »
I figure with people staying away from Corona, whiskey futures are a good investment.

Brother Esau

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2020, 05:01:38 PM »
nothing different than usual. sticking with the same asset allocation/plan/diversification as always. winning!

Simpli-Fi

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2020, 05:29:07 PM »
FIRE SALE!  I plan to buy more

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2020, 05:35:33 PM »
Im investing in plague doctor masques.  The market can only go up!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2020, 05:58:40 PM »
I figure with people staying away from Corona, whiskey futures are a good investment.

Dont get the futures! Dont you know there is an international whiskey futures cabal that manipulates the price? Be sure to take physical delivery of bourbon. And if you cant, let me know and Ill be happy to take custody for you. Its the least I can do for a fellow MMMer.

ender

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2020, 06:00:16 PM »
Top is definitely in.

moneytaichi

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #27 on: January 28, 2020, 12:51:11 AM »
I am going against the stream here. My mum lives in Sichuan, which is the province on East Side of HuBei province, the epiccenter of Coronavirus outbreak. She lives in a retirement place. Although nobody has been detected with the virus, the whole retirement place has been locked down, meaning no residence can leave, and no visitors. Friends in China are complaining about the skyrocked price on food and run-out face masks etc. The holiday season and schools are being postponed indefinitely. I tried to buy some face masks today. Walmart run out face masks. Homedopot was emptied out last night. Luckily, they restocked today, but with only a few left.

I am not afraid of the death rate of the virus. I fear for the domino effect of the overly interlocked global system. China provides at least 20% of US imports and much raw materials for other countries. When China shuts down, it WILL have a huge impact on the globe.

My financial situation may be different from yours. If the stocks crash, I will gain more. If the stocks continue rising, that's no big deal. I can afford to wait. The rising market eventually will have a correction. In both cases, I am fine. It's which side of greed I want to bet on.

Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 03:03:50 PM by moneytaichi »

Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #28 on: January 28, 2020, 04:02:33 AM »
I am going against the stream here. My mum lives in Sichuan, which is the province on East Side of HuBei province, the epiccenter of Coronavirus outbreak. She lives in a retirement place. Although nobody has been detected with the virus, the whole retirement place has been locked down, meaning no residence can leave, and no visitors. Friends in China are complaining about the skyrocked price on food and run-out face masks etc. The holiday season and schools are being postponed indefinitely. I tried to buy some face masks today. Walmart run out face masks. Homedopot was emptied out last night. Luckily, they restocked today, but with only a few left.

I am not afraid of the death rate of the virus. I fear for the domino effect of the overly interlocked global system. China provides at least 20% of US imports and much raw materials for other countries. When China shuts down, it WILL have a huge impact on the globe.

My financial situation may be different from yours. We have retired about 2 years so I can afford to "gamble". I have put half of our net worth on a standby mode (i.e. bonds, money market and cash). If the stocks crash, I will gain more. If the stocks continue rising, that's no big deal. I can afford to wait. The rising market eventually will have a correction. In both cases, I am fine. It's which side of greed I want to bet on.

Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

There are multiple threads already about coronavirus, this one is about investments specifically, which is why we're all having a laugh.

ReadyOrNot

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #29 on: January 28, 2020, 04:23:50 AM »
I moved the rest of my bond positions into the stock market. 

mies

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #30 on: January 28, 2020, 04:31:14 AM »
Im not doing anything different either. Im just kind of bummed I missed out on the price drop. My 401(k) contribution went in last Thursday :(

Im not a complete monster. I hope they get the outbreak under control and the loss of life is minimal.

Gone Fishing

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #31 on: January 28, 2020, 04:56:17 AM »
I'm in my drawdown phase.  I'm also reducing my (excessive?) exposure to Emerging markets (asia heavy).  I went ahead and sold off enough for 6 months or so vs my usual one month at a time.  Got about the same price as I got in December, 5% off of last week's peak.  No worries...

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #32 on: January 28, 2020, 05:09:23 AM »
I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.

Simpli-Fi

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #33 on: January 28, 2020, 06:00:24 AM »
do you rebalance weekly?  or does that just read that way...as in your X timeframe rebalance is on hold

KBecks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #34 on: January 28, 2020, 06:04:00 AM »
No changes but I am watching the market more closely.  If I change out some of my stocks, they will be moves that I was already thinking about and not related to the virus.  The only sell I am considering is Starbucks, as their future growth is very connected to China.  However, historically stuff like this (SARS, Ebola) has not made a major impact on the stock market in the past.  Most of my investor friends are looking at it as a buying opportunity, but I am waiting and watching for lower prices for now.

The 2020 election may also provide some market wobbles.  So I am thinking ahead to later in the year too. I maintain a cash position and that lets me sleep at night.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #35 on: January 28, 2020, 08:02:41 AM »


Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

Actually, dust masks are ineffective against viruses. Mask-wearing is essentially a form of superstition unless you are using expensive N95 medical masks and changing them every couple of hours. Hand washing, a healthy diet, and exercise are about the only things that will protect a person who is otherwise vulnerable to this specific pathogen.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1

harvestbook

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #36 on: January 28, 2020, 08:04:24 AM »
I'm perfectly willing to fight a Walmart mob of viral carriers in order to grab that last dirty paper mask in order to feel safe.

Same idea for my portfolio.

frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #37 on: January 28, 2020, 08:30:59 AM »
More people have died in the USA from the regular flu this year than the number of people that have even contracted the coronavisus worldwide.  And most people I know aren't even bothering to get their flu shot, but they are all up in arms about the coronavirus.  It's fucking insanity. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #38 on: January 28, 2020, 08:37:53 AM »
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.

Dicey

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #39 on: January 28, 2020, 08:43:44 AM »
WTF???

Posting so I can come back when I have more time to read what I'm sure will be hilarious comments.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #40 on: January 28, 2020, 08:45:22 AM »
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.

That sounds pretty experimental.  Perhaps more testing should be done in the name of Science

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #41 on: January 28, 2020, 09:11:13 AM »
This seems worse than SARS

By which objective measure is this worse than SARS?

I'm going the same thing I always do: buy more VT every two weeks.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #42 on: January 28, 2020, 09:40:53 AM »
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.

That sounds pretty experimental.  Perhaps more testing should be done in the name of Science
Are you looking for test subjects? Because I'd be willing to participate in either the control ("no lime") or experimental ("with lime") group.

frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #43 on: January 28, 2020, 09:43:05 AM »
I thought you put the lime in the coconut?

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #44 on: January 28, 2020, 09:51:23 AM »
I thought you put the lime in the coconut?
that's an old wives tale. 

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #45 on: January 28, 2020, 10:09:29 AM »
I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.

Just curious... will you buy next week no matter what?  Regardless of the # of cases, death reports,  if it has spread more beyond China/Asia, what the market is doing, or anything else?

Or is there something that might cause further delay, and if so, have you clearly defined that for yourself?

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #46 on: January 28, 2020, 12:25:55 PM »
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now

I figured  the coronavirus  would at least unsettle  stock markets a bit which it did.

I took no action.

The S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq Composite are close to their record highs so I've been mulling whether  fear of a pandemic or an actual one could  catalyze a  stock  market crash.






John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #47 on: January 28, 2020, 12:45:02 PM »
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.

Putting the jocularity aside, an aged woman  who purported to be the daughter of famous  Manhattan medico said  protection from the coronavirus  can be effected by putting  vinegar on a paper towel and wiping   the lips and nostrils with it.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 01:00:42 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

BobTheBuilder

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #48 on: January 28, 2020, 01:16:37 PM »
Had fun cashing in on a 25% gain on DowJones put option yesterday and pouring it back into stocks. I play the game of randomness, and here comes some random drop in the market. Like the others said, the standard flu is a bigger problem.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #49 on: January 28, 2020, 02:35:52 PM »
If you have play money buy AAPL before they announce earnings this week.  If people are not going out into crowds they will be online streaming and otherwise on their devices.     
 

This was sound advice.