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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: FrugalSaver on January 26, 2020, 10:42:03 PM

Title: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on January 26, 2020, 10:42:03 PM
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: shinn497 on January 26, 2020, 11:17:49 PM


There are 11 Million people that live in wuhan. less than 3000 have contracted the virus. That is .027% of the population. The fact that they know about it and are able to take precautions against it is a good sign. Similiar thing for here in the us. The CDC hasn't issued any warnings except to wash your hands and don't go to wuhan.

It is going to be fine. Don't take action. You will forget about this in a month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on January 26, 2020, 11:55:03 PM
Going all in on hazmat suit manufacturers
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 27, 2020, 04:48:25 AM
There is no chance the number of cases stops at 3,000.  If someone makes that bet, take it.  I expect over 4,000 by tomorrow, let alone by next week.

The spread of the virus is alarming: 1400... 2000... 3000.  That's +50% per day, and it's kept up that pace for awhile.  Even more disturbing, it has a 1 to 14 day incubation period, where someone without symptoms can spread the virus.  The measures you see on TV, checking temperature, are a good start - but can't contain a virus that is contagious 2 weeks before someone gets a fever.

I would expect airlines and hotels to be most impacted by the virus.  Maybe you want to avoid them, or use "shorting" to bet on them dropping.

If you take 3,000 cases now and extrapolate +50% over the next few days: 4,500.. 6700.. 10,000.
It couldpass 10,000 cases by the end of the week, which I'm guessing will cause more panic.  Even though this virus is less lethal than SARS, people will probably view it the same way, and panic more than they should.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Ready2Save27 on January 27, 2020, 04:51:49 AM
I agree that you should not take any action. Here are some key reasons:
-It is being blown way out of proportion. Not that many people are dead from it compared to a cold/flu
-There are always scary headlines. If you jumped at every headline, youd give up a lot of gains
-You cant time the market. The market may not react much to this, but even if it did and we assume youre right, when would you go back in/switch back to your current allocation? Now you need to time the market again, or you can miss out on gains.

The point of index funds is so that you ride with the market. You could absolutely be right about this, but it isnt worth the risk of missing out on gains for every headline you hear. Just stick with your investment strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: daverobev on January 27, 2020, 04:56:55 AM
Bought some Emerging Market ETFs and HSBC this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DadJokes on January 27, 2020, 07:19:51 AM
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Phenix on January 27, 2020, 07:21:51 AM
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.

Username checks out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: JAYSLOL on January 27, 2020, 07:59:25 AM
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.

We should be setting up portfolio de-sanitizing stations around here
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 27, 2020, 08:31:50 AM
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now

I'm doing the same thing in terms of my investments I do every time there is a big news story....nothing. My AA was designed with a 50 year time horizon. Shit is going to go sideways in all sorts of big ways over that time-frame. In much more significant ways than this virus. My investments plan is to stay the course with a globally diversified portfolio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: matchewed on January 27, 2020, 09:53:50 AM
Do the same thing you do when there isn't a virus outbreak in another country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Cabaka on January 27, 2020, 09:58:43 AM

going to take at least a week, maybe 2 or more before realistic infection and fatality rates are known and the ability to contain.

historically, the mkts have been known to sell off in late January on something; so this is not unexpected and they even recovered very quickly from ebola; but going back to zero gains for the year is definitely possible before going back up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on January 27, 2020, 09:59:18 AM
Apparently the markets are all spun up over this disease. International markets dropped by 2-3%. I dont see why the angst; Captain Trips this aint.

Still, I think it only prudent to carefully consider the ramifications of this sort of thing. To evaluate the risks that the market is clearly pricing in, to understand what negative impacts this might mean to my portfolio, and to take action*. Efficient market hypothesis and all.

So I bought more.

RED ALERT!  STOCKS ARE ON SALE TODAY!!!!!

*(It took me a whole 5 minutes. Including the time spent laughing and logging on to my account.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on January 27, 2020, 10:02:05 AM
I'm putting a surgical mask on my portfolio so that it doesn't contract anything.

Thats prudent. Make sure and wash your hands. You might want to talk to your account statement in soothing tones as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on January 27, 2020, 10:03:50 AM
Perspective.  A large natural disaster can disrupt work for millions of people and can kill hundreds (occasionally thousands). Armed conflict impacts similar numbers of people.  Those are rarely more than a blip on a quarterly market report.
The Coronavirus may very well infect tens-of-thousands, if not hundreds-of-thousands of people and quite likely will kill a few thousand before all is said and done.  Thats horrible and deserves our attention and resources.

... but the average investor isnt likely to notice. For that to happen it will need to infect tens-of-millions.  We are - as of today - a very long way from that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Villanelle on January 27, 2020, 10:07:14 AM
This is market timing.  Don't do it.  Are you a market-timer?  Do you believe trying to time the market is a good idea?  Do you have any solid reason to believe you will be better at it than the vast majority who try it?  Do you have some insider knowledge that allows you to understand how  this will affect the market (but still legally trade)?

Do you have a basic in investment plan and if so, does it include anything about how to respond to the very beginnings of a new disease for which there is no solid idea at all about what will happen, and then even less sure what that will do the the markets long, medium, or even fairly short term? 

Market timing=bad.  Don't do it.  EOD

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on January 27, 2020, 10:17:23 AM
Perspective.  A large natural disaster can disrupt work for millions of people and can kill hundreds (occasionally thousands). Armed conflict impacts similar numbers of people.  Those are rarely more than a blip on a quarterly market report.
The Coronavirus may very well infect tens-of-thousands, if not hundreds-of-thousands of people and quite likely will kill a few thousand before all is said and done.  Thats horrible and deserves our attention and resources.

... but the average investor isnt likely to notice. For that to happen it will need to infect tens-of-millions.  We are - as of today - a very long way from that.

From a cold-hearted investor perspective, it seems that the most likely hit will come from the loss in productivity to prevent the disease rather than actual deaths. For example, a typical person has about 10,000 working days in their life, so if 10,000 people die that's a loss of 100 million working days. If an area of 50 million people is shut down for just 3-4 days we get a similar loss in productivity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: appleshampooid on January 27, 2020, 11:01:19 AM
I'm not doing anything actively, but I am flexing my wish muscle extra hard that the dip lasts through Wednesday as that is when my 401(k) contribution will hit. C'mon fearmongerers....keep doing your thing for another couple days!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 27, 2020, 11:26:41 AM
First, I shat my pants.
Second, I sold everything.
Third, I bought gold coins from a commercial on Fox News.
Fourth, I realized that my gold coins will be at risk, so I bought all the ammo at WalMart and sandbagged the doors and windows of my house. Exhausted, but done.
Fifth, I purchased a pallet of canned Beenie Weenies - Enough calories and nutrition to last me a year so I dont have to leave the house and get exposed or cannibalized.
Sixth, I changed pants and took a shower.
Seventh, this made me realize I was low on toilet paper. Off to Sams club with a rented Uhaul truck now - soon as I get through the sandbags.

Good luck out there. I feel especially sorry for those who were too slow to take IMMEDIATE ACTION.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Stimpy on January 27, 2020, 11:39:49 AM
First, I shat my pants.
Second, I sold everything.
Third, I bought gold coins from a commercial on Fox News.
Fourth, I realized that my gold coins will be at risk, so I bought all the ammo at WalMart and sandbagged the doors and windows of my house. Exhausted, but done.
Fifth, I purchased a pallet of canned Beenie Weenies - Enough calories and nutrition to last me a year so I dont have to leave the house and get exposed or cannibalized.
Sixth, I changed pants and took a shower.
Seventh, this made me realize I was low on toilet paper. Off to Sams club with a rented Uhaul truck now - soon as I get through the sandbags.

Good luck out there. I feel especially sorry for those who were too slow to take IMMEDIATE ACTION.

This sounds about right for the layman........      For everyone else there's Visa. 

Jokes aside, the plan was made for the long term.  I suspect the infected numbers are bigger in China then is what being said but, honestly, don't care.  If this is the start of Armageddon, stock are useless and nothing anyone can do will save us.  If it's not Armageddon then buy the dip and call it a day.  Either way no reason stop following the plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Laserjet3051 on January 27, 2020, 11:49:04 AM
hasnt everyone else moved 100% to cash by now? Aside from de-risking financially, we've got a set of full face respirators, several gallons of viricide and we're keeping the kids home from school until things blow over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: js82 on January 27, 2020, 03:55:43 PM
I figure with people staying away from Corona, whiskey futures are a good investment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Brother Esau on January 27, 2020, 05:01:38 PM
nothing different than usual. sticking with the same asset allocation/plan/diversification as always. winning!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Simpli-Fi on January 27, 2020, 05:29:07 PM
FIRE SALE!  I plan to buy more
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ScreamingHeadGuy on January 27, 2020, 05:35:33 PM
Im investing in plague doctor masques.  The market can only go up!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on January 27, 2020, 05:58:40 PM
I figure with people staying away from Corona, whiskey futures are a good investment.

Dont get the futures! Dont you know there is an international whiskey futures cabal that manipulates the price? Be sure to take physical delivery of bourbon. And if you cant, let me know and Ill be happy to take custody for you. Its the least I can do for a fellow MMMer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ender on January 27, 2020, 06:00:16 PM
Top is definitely in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: moneytaichi on January 28, 2020, 12:51:11 AM
I am going against the stream here. My mum lives in Sichuan, which is the province on East Side of HuBei province, the epiccenter of Coronavirus outbreak. She lives in a retirement place. Although nobody has been detected with the virus, the whole retirement place has been locked down, meaning no residence can leave, and no visitors. Friends in China are complaining about the skyrocked price on food and run-out face masks etc. The holiday season and schools are being postponed indefinitely. I tried to buy some face masks today. Walmart run out face masks. Homedopot was emptied out last night. Luckily, they restocked today, but with only a few left.

I am not afraid of the death rate of the virus. I fear for the domino effect of the overly interlocked global system. China provides at least 20% of US imports and much raw materials for other countries. When China shuts down, it WILL have a huge impact on the globe.

My financial situation may be different from yours. If the stocks crash, I will gain more. If the stocks continue rising, that's no big deal. I can afford to wait. The rising market eventually will have a correction. In both cases, I am fine. It's which side of greed I want to bet on.

Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Malcat on January 28, 2020, 04:02:33 AM
I am going against the stream here. My mum lives in Sichuan, which is the province on East Side of HuBei province, the epiccenter of Coronavirus outbreak. She lives in a retirement place. Although nobody has been detected with the virus, the whole retirement place has been locked down, meaning no residence can leave, and no visitors. Friends in China are complaining about the skyrocked price on food and run-out face masks etc. The holiday season and schools are being postponed indefinitely. I tried to buy some face masks today. Walmart run out face masks. Homedopot was emptied out last night. Luckily, they restocked today, but with only a few left.

I am not afraid of the death rate of the virus. I fear for the domino effect of the overly interlocked global system. China provides at least 20% of US imports and much raw materials for other countries. When China shuts down, it WILL have a huge impact on the globe.

My financial situation may be different from yours. We have retired about 2 years so I can afford to "gamble". I have put half of our net worth on a standby mode (i.e. bonds, money market and cash). If the stocks crash, I will gain more. If the stocks continue rising, that's no big deal. I can afford to wait. The rising market eventually will have a correction. In both cases, I am fine. It's which side of greed I want to bet on.

Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

There are multiple threads already about coronavirus, this one is about investments specifically, which is why we're all having a laugh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ReadyOrNot on January 28, 2020, 04:23:50 AM
I moved the rest of my bond positions into the stock market. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: mies on January 28, 2020, 04:31:14 AM
Im not doing anything different either. Im just kind of bummed I missed out on the price drop. My 401(k) contribution went in last Thursday :(

Im not a complete monster. I hope they get the outbreak under control and the loss of life is minimal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Gone Fishing on January 28, 2020, 04:56:17 AM
I'm in my drawdown phase.  I'm also reducing my (excessive?) exposure to Emerging markets (asia heavy).  I went ahead and sold off enough for 6 months or so vs my usual one month at a time.  Got about the same price as I got in December, 5% off of last week's peak.  No worries...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 28, 2020, 05:09:23 AM
I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Simpli-Fi on January 28, 2020, 06:00:24 AM
do you rebalance weekly?  or does that just read that way...as in your X timeframe rebalance is on hold
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: KBecks on January 28, 2020, 06:04:00 AM
No changes but I am watching the market more closely.  If I change out some of my stocks, they will be moves that I was already thinking about and not related to the virus.  The only sell I am considering is Starbucks, as their future growth is very connected to China.  However, historically stuff like this (SARS, Ebola) has not made a major impact on the stock market in the past.  Most of my investor friends are looking at it as a buying opportunity, but I am waiting and watching for lower prices for now.

The 2020 election may also provide some market wobbles.  So I am thinking ahead to later in the year too. I maintain a cash position and that lets me sleep at night.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 28, 2020, 08:02:41 AM


Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

Actually, dust masks are ineffective against viruses. Mask-wearing is essentially a form of superstition unless you are using expensive N95 medical masks and changing them every couple of hours. Hand washing, a healthy diet, and exercise are about the only things that will protect a person who is otherwise vulnerable to this specific pathogen.

 https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1 (https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: harvestbook on January 28, 2020, 08:04:24 AM
I'm perfectly willing to fight a Walmart mob of viral carriers in order to grab that last dirty paper mask in order to feel safe.

Same idea for my portfolio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on January 28, 2020, 08:30:59 AM
More people have died in the USA from the regular flu this year than the number of people that have even contracted the coronavisus worldwide.  And most people I know aren't even bothering to get their flu shot, but they are all up in arms about the coronavirus.  It's fucking insanity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 28, 2020, 08:37:53 AM
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Dicey on January 28, 2020, 08:43:44 AM
WTF???

Posting so I can come back when I have more time to read what I'm sure will be hilarious comments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: JAYSLOL on January 28, 2020, 08:45:22 AM
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.

That sounds pretty experimental.  Perhaps more testing should be done in the name of Science
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on January 28, 2020, 09:11:13 AM
This seems worse than SARS

By which objective measure is this worse than SARS?

I'm going the same thing I always do: buy more VT every two weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on January 28, 2020, 09:40:53 AM
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.

That sounds pretty experimental.  Perhaps more testing should be done in the name of Science
Are you looking for test subjects? Because I'd be willing to participate in either the control ("no lime") or experimental ("with lime") group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on January 28, 2020, 09:43:05 AM
I thought you put the lime in the coconut?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on January 28, 2020, 09:51:23 AM
I thought you put the lime in the coconut?
that's an old wives tale. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Villanelle on January 28, 2020, 10:09:29 AM
I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.

Just curious... will you buy next week no matter what?  Regardless of the # of cases, death reports,  if it has spread more beyond China/Asia, what the market is doing, or anything else?

Or is there something that might cause further delay, and if so, have you clearly defined that for yourself?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on January 28, 2020, 12:25:55 PM
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now

I figured  the coronavirus  would at least unsettle  stock markets a bit which it did.

I took no action.

The S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq Composite are close to their record highs so I've been mulling whether  fear of a pandemic or an actual one could  catalyze a  stock  market crash.





Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on January 28, 2020, 12:45:02 PM
It's fucking insanity.

Very true. I am shocked that so few people understand that a slice of lime rubbed over the opening of your Corona virtually eliminates the risk of getting this virus. If you want to be cautious use one slice to disinfect the opening, discard it and then put another slice into the bottle for added protection. I know a lot of people who drink Corona and not one has come down with the virus using this simple, but effective technique.

Putting the jocularity aside, an aged woman  who purported to be the daughter of famous  Manhattan medico said  protection from the coronavirus  can be effected by putting  vinegar on a paper towel and wiping   the lips and nostrils with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BobTheBuilder on January 28, 2020, 01:16:37 PM
Had fun cashing in on a 25% gain on DowJones put option yesterday and pouring it back into stocks. I play the game of randomness, and here comes some random drop in the market. Like the others said, the standard flu is a bigger problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MissNancyPryor on January 28, 2020, 02:35:52 PM
If you have play money buy AAPL before they announce earnings this week.  If people are not going out into crowds they will be online streaming and otherwise on their devices.     
 

This was sound advice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Gone Fishing on January 28, 2020, 06:00:26 PM
I'm in my drawdown phase.  I'm also reducing my (excessive?) exposure to Emerging markets (asia heavy).  I went ahead and sold off enough for 6 months or so vs my usual one month at a time.  Got about the same price as I got in December, 5% off of last week's peak.  No worries...

Oops, rebounded .89% today.  Oh, well...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 28, 2020, 08:06:11 PM
@Simpli-Fi - I check for a chance to rebalance more often than I should, yes.  But I meant that I'd delay rebalancing for this entire week, and only check on Monday.

I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.
Just curious... will you buy next week no matter what?  Regardless of the # of cases, death reports,  if it has spread more beyond China/Asia, what the market is doing, or anything else?

Or is there something that might cause further delay, and if so, have you clearly defined that for yourself?
Meaning on Monday I plan to check my asset allocations, and buy/sell to bring things back into balance.  But one caveat: I'm really waiting for a news frenzy over hitting 10,000 confirmed cases.  If that happens Friday, I might rebalance then.
 Sometimes I feel like there's obvious information, but the news media just doesn't get it.  So I'm waiting for them to be shocked by 10,000 cases.

---
Just a note on masks: in theory, regular surgical style masks aren't useful.  But it's very good practice to avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.  Because people wearing masks find it awkward to rub their nose or mouth, a mask actually helps improve behavior.  So in practice, people wearing masks touch their nose and mouth less, and so any mask actually helps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on January 29, 2020, 12:17:05 AM


Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

Actually, dust masks are ineffective against viruses. Mask-wearing is essentially a form of superstition unless you are using expensive N95 medical masks and changing them every couple of hours. Hand washing, a healthy diet, and exercise are about the only things that will protect a person who is otherwise vulnerable to this specific pathogen.

 https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1 (https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1)

"Luckily" I have a ton of P95 leftover/in anticipation of summer wildfire smoke.  They are not really that expensive.  Makes doing a lot of housework more bearable too (sanding, cutting wood, painting, dusty yard work, etc.).  Good to have on hand even if you aren't a dedicated prepper (don't pay panic prices though)

I probably wouldn't even wear one if there are cases reported near me.  I can't remember the last time someone actually coughed in my face (in which case I'd also need to wear goggles!).  More important to wash hands and just avoid crowds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Laserjet3051 on January 29, 2020, 11:09:14 AM


Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

Actually, dust masks are ineffective against viruses. Mask-wearing is essentially a form of superstition unless you are using expensive N95 medical masks and changing them every couple of hours. Hand washing, a healthy diet, and exercise are about the only things that will protect a person who is otherwise vulnerable to this specific pathogen.

 https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1 (https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1)

"Luckily" I have a ton of P95 leftover/in anticipation of summer wildfire smoke.  They are not really that expensive.  Makes doing a lot of housework more bearable too (sanding, cutting wood, painting, dusty yard work, etc.).  Good to have on hand even if you aren't a dedicated prepper (don't pay panic prices though)

I probably wouldn't even wear one if there are cases reported near me.  I can't remember the last time someone actually coughed in my face (in which case I'd also need to wear goggles!).  More important to wash hands and just avoid crowds.

True, they are not expensive nor do you have to change them every few hours. I use them regularly in a regulated work environment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 29, 2020, 07:17:50 PM
While the media say things like "Coronavirus Explodes in China" (NY Times) or point out that there's more cases than SARS (USA Today), I have reason for optimism.  For the past 2 days, the Coronavirus has slowed it's rate of spread.  It's now spreading at +30% / day (versus +50% / day): 4500 -> 6000 -> 7700

I'm rebalancing on Friday if the market drops over 1%, otherwise I'll wait for Monday (maybe I'll rebalance both days?)  In theory I might do nothing - no buy/sell - if my portfolio is completely in balance.  Right now international is below it's allocation, so I expect to buy more international equities (selling either US equities or bonds).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Dicey on January 30, 2020, 05:41:08 AM
I thought you put the lime in the coconut?
You drink them both together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DadJokes on January 30, 2020, 06:06:54 AM
What are the chances that Corona is actually losing sales right now? They're owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev, so it's not like the parent company is going to hurt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 30, 2020, 07:26:37 AM
What are the chances that Corona is actually losing sales right now? They're owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev, so it's not like the parent company is going to hurt.

(https://giveawayjoe.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/corona-bucket.png)

I'm buying the dip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Simpli-Fi on January 31, 2020, 07:51:16 AM
@Simpli-Fi - I check for a chance to rebalance more often than I should, yes.  But I meant that I'd delay rebalancing for this entire week, and only check on Monday.

I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.
Just curious... will you buy next week no matter what?  Regardless of the # of cases, death reports,  if it has spread more beyond China/Asia, what the market is doing, or anything else?

Or is there something that might cause further delay, and if so, have you clearly defined that for yourself?
Meaning on Monday I plan to check my asset allocations, and buy/sell to bring things back into balance.  But one caveat: I'm really waiting for a news frenzy over hitting 10,000 confirmed cases.  If that happens Friday, I might rebalance then.
 Sometimes I feel like there's obvious information, but the news media just doesn't get it.  So I'm waiting for them to be shocked by 10,000 cases.

---
Just a note on masks: in theory, regular surgical style masks aren't useful.  But it's very good practice to avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.  Because people wearing masks find it awkward to rub their nose or mouth, a mask actually helps improve behavior.  So in practice, people wearing masks touch their nose and mouth less, and so any mask actually helps.

Nailed it again
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Rdy2Fire on January 31, 2020, 08:00:51 AM
First thing I'd say is it's worse then being reported.. They claim 10K cases and about 200 dead but China is lying about the numbers just like they did with SARS. These numbers will rise

Second in regards to investing, if you're an investor then you leave your money where it is, maybe shift a little if you think you need to but this has nothing to do with Coronvirus. The markets have been doing so well for the last year or three that if you're in them you're still ahead and unless you NEED the money out, the long term tells us you will be fine.

Although this week has been a rougher then normal week (at least for me) and today is going to be bad, hang in there and hold on for the ride.. Matter of fact you might want these to be your next investment
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 31, 2020, 09:10:51 AM
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/ (https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/)

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on January 31, 2020, 09:57:17 AM
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/ (https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/)

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)

Tell people that a disease from China has been detected in a few people in the US and **might** kill a few thousand globally and it's front-page news for weeks.

Ask them to get a flu shot because it *literally* kills tens of thousands in the US and over a quarter-million globally each year and people can't be bothered.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on January 31, 2020, 10:12:20 AM
@nereo,

I have my flu shot. Also, I'm not sure that's unreasonable since the flu mortality rate is typically ~0.1% and the 2019-nCov mortality rate is currently estimated ~4% (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 31, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
Since we're at ~9700 cases, and the market has dropped, I did half my rebalancing today.  For all of my international allocations, I bought enough to bring me halfway back to my asset allocation.  On Monday, I'll do the rest (if needed).

Last weekend the virus cases were growing at +50%/day, and now it's closer to +25%/day.  When you see online news saying that cases are "exploding" (France 24), that's not accurate.  You can look up yesterday's number of cases (7700) and divide today's cases by yesterday's: 9700 / 7700 = 1.26, meaning +26% new cases.  A better term for what's happening is "slowing".  The rate of growth is slowing, which suggests measures to control the spread are having an impact.

To quote myself from Monday, Jan 27, earlier in this thread:
> It couldpass 10,000 cases by the end of the week, which I'm guessing will cause more panic.

Does anyone know of a source (TV, online news) that predicted 10,000 cases by this weekend?
(Not today - now it's trivial!  But several days ago)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on January 31, 2020, 10:58:11 AM
@MustacheAndaHalf,

Those are confirmed cases, I would direct you here (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html) and here (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn). Especially the exponential graph on the NYT piece.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 31, 2020, 12:00:54 PM
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/ (https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/)

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)

Tell people that a disease from China has been detected in a few people in the US and **might** kill a few thousand globally and it's front-page news for weeks.

Ask them to get a flu shot because it *literally* kills tens of thousands in the US and over a quarter-million globally each year and people can't be bothered.

Imagine when the Wuhan virus starts killing a few hundred Americans a day! At that point, itll be almost as bad as that other virus nobody cares about, and the media barely reports.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on January 31, 2020, 12:05:46 PM
@nereo,

I have my flu shot. Also, I'm not sure that's unreasonable since the flu mortality rate is typically ~0.1% and the 2019-nCov mortality rate is currently estimated ~4% (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf).
\

Just meant as an observation about how people perceive risk.  Currently, the likelihood of contracting and/or dying from the flu is orders of magnitude greater than the corona virus in all but some specific regions of China - yet many people do not take the most fundamental precautions.

Yes, coronavirus is absolutely bad and we should take it seriously to prevent it from becoming a global pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on January 31, 2020, 12:20:58 PM
Yes, coronavirus is absolutely bad and we should take it seriously to prevent it from becoming a global pandemic.

Yup, I just wanted to add the attached infographic originally sourced from here (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html). I hadn't found it until now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 31, 2020, 12:47:44 PM
@MustacheAndaHalf,

Those are confirmed cases, I would direct you here (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html) and here (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn). Especially the exponential graph on the NYT piece.
Thanks for sharing those sources.  I haven't seen the rate of spread of coronovirus pictured next to SARS, so that was new.  I think that's a cautionary tale about what happens if coronavirus has another outbreak outside China.  So far, despite dozens of countries confirming cases, there hasn't been an outbreak in a second country.  It's a bit difficult to see if that graph is growing more slowly at the top - does it look smooth and consistent to you?  At first the virus grew +50%, but after ~4500 cases, it slowed and is now closer to +26% / day.

Also, I've changed my view on the virus spreading before symptoms are present.  WHO takes the view it only spreads after someone shows symptoms.  Despite how fast the virus spreads, there haven't been outbreaks in the many countries where cases were detected.  If it was easy to slip through, that would seem unlikely.  Also, quarantine isn't as effective if you don't know who has the virus.  The slowing growth rate also suggests measures are having an impact.

The sad thing is the hospital situation.  I saw an interview a few days ago where a man complained "There are hospitals with virus test kits - but they have no beds.  No room for new patients.  And then there's hospitals who have room, but no virus test kits."  They basically couldn't find anywhere to be diagnosed, and then quarantined.

The second article seems more speculative, saying tourists outside China might be spreading the virus.  So far, there aren't outbreaks outside China.  There's individual cases caught on arrival, and some human to human transmission.  If the virus was spreading 50x faster than is claimed (2k cases vs 100k cases), why is nothing happening outside one region of China?

Early on, it's safe to worry that China might hide data like they did with SARS.  But China has loosened censorship - even allowing people to openly criticize how the government handles the virus.  A co-worker of mine once explained China's government as "When it's good, it's very good.  But when it's bad... it's very bad."  They act decisively, wrong or right.  Right now, it looks like China is doing a better job containing the virus than most countries would - shutting down transportation, celebrations and public gatherings.  Given all the information I have, I think they're telling truthful numbers on the number of cases.  They may have systemic problems with reporting data, but I think they are trying to act in a way that will make Chinese citizens satisfied with their handling of the crisis.

So I don't buy the 100,000 speculative number, and point to the "nearly 10,000 cases" in most news sources as the correct one.  I could be wrong on that, but here more of the data seems to show a lower number.

China is dramatically building hospitals in only ~7 days, from scratch.  Which sounds hard to believe, until you realize how fast China constructs cities from scratch.  Patients wandering around with coronavirus isn't ideal for containing an outbreak... and those new hospitals (2, I think) will help.  Given the lack of outbreaks outside China and the draconian measures used to contain the virus (no buses/planes/subways in Wuhan are running), I'm guessing they will succeed.

So if I'm right on that, an unknown amount of time later the outbreak will be contained, and stocks will return to normal levels.  I buy on Monday to rebalance back to my asset allocation... and then later international surges upwards, and I'll sell to rebalance my asset allocation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on January 31, 2020, 01:18:44 PM
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/ (https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/)

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)

Tell people that a disease from China has been detected in a few people in the US and **might** kill a few thousand globally and it's front-page news for weeks.

Ask them to get a flu shot because it *literally* kills tens of thousands in the US and over a quarter-million globally each year and people can't be bothered.

Imagine when the Wuhan virus starts killing a few hundred Americans a day! At that point, itll be almost as bad as that other virus nobody cares about, and the media barely reports.

Its not right to say nobody cares about flu.  The medical and public health community is very serious about it.  Far more resources are spent on flu prevention than corona virus.  Its just that this one is novel and therefore scary because we cant predict it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on January 31, 2020, 10:53:46 PM
To quote myself from Monday, Jan 27, earlier in this thread:
> It couldpass 10,000 cases by the end of the week, which I'm guessing will cause more panic.

Good, job 11,791 confirmed cases in China alone. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-live-updates-chinas-death-toll-confirmed-cases.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 01, 2020, 08:01:06 AM
Who wants to wager?

I bet the plain ole flu kills more Americans in the remainder of 2020 than the Wuhan virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 02, 2020, 05:33:51 AM
Quote
I think that means they learned the backlash from their handling of SARS wasn't worth it.

I think its a combination of China deciding its not worth it but also (and probably more important) they concluded that they simply **cant** run a disinformation campaign against an epidemic in todays China society.  While they still keep a tight control over traditional news outlets and have the great firewall its far from ironclad, and you arent going to be able to keep 50MM of your own citizens on lockdown/quarantine while also insisting everything is fine here! Nothing to see, move along.  Reports get out and unsubstantiated rumors (panic!!!) are worse than just providing the truth up front.

Welcome to a [more] free and [more] open society, China!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 02, 2020, 06:48:17 AM
@nereo - I've deleted my earlier post, since new information has come to light.  China has begun a crackdown on those talking about the virus - calling it "rumors".  But they arrested a doctor who was working on the front lines.  They're targeting people in a way that suggests they are covering it up.  Unfortunate, but it changes my opinion.

There's two other troubling things.  The day the virus started slowing down?  That was the exact same day China began a new campaign to crack down on people talking about the virus on social media.  I don't like coincidences like that.

The number of cases for the past 3 days (Fri - Sun) is apparently 9700, 11800, 14300.  The growth of +21.6% from Friday to Saturday has turned into +21.1% from Saturday to Sunday.  If accurate, that's bad news - the virus isn't slowing down much at all today.

I'm still going to rebalance on Monday, but the end seems further off than I hoped, based on what I learned today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 02, 2020, 08:27:46 AM
@nereo - I've deleted my earlier post, since new information has come to light.  China has begun a crackdown on those talking about the virus - calling it "rumors".  But they arrested a doctor who was working on the front lines.  They're targeting people in a way that suggests they are covering it up.  Unfortunate, but it changes my opinion.

There's two other troubling things.  The day the virus started slowing down?  That was the exact same day China began a new campaign to crack down on people talking about the virus on social media.  I don't like coincidences like that.

The number of cases for the past 3 days (Fri - Sun) is apparently 9700, 11800, 14300.  The growth of +21.6% from Friday to Saturday has turned into +21.1% from Saturday to Sunday.  If accurate, that's bad news - the virus isn't slowing down much at all today.

I'm still going to rebalance on Monday, but the end seems further off than I hoped, based on what I learned today.

Hmm.... intersting developments indeed.  Until today I was cautiously optimistic at the level of transparency that Beijing had on the virus, its extensiveness and with the World Health Organization to help combat the spread. 
If true this is indeed worrying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugledoc on February 02, 2020, 10:16:07 AM
Mortality rate seems low at 2% and most of the deaths are in the elderly. 

In fact, I have my doubts if coronavirus is responsible for most of this minor pullback or not.

Just seems like the market doing what it always does, behaving erratically in the short term but predictably in the long term.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on February 02, 2020, 10:39:25 AM
In fact, I have my doubts if coronavirus is responsible for most of this minor pullback or not.

Well, in a few hours the Shanghai Stock Exchange will open for the first time in a week (closed for the new year). We'll see what happens then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 03, 2020, 10:19:36 AM
Yeah, I hoped China's government had learned from SARS... sigh.  There's articles from NY Times, Wired and various other sources.  Since "Vice" tends to not pull punches in their reporting, I'll refer to their reporting:
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5xykx/you-can-now-go-to-jail-in-china-for-criticizing-beijings-coronavirus-response

You can also see how China is lashing out at the US, which is denying entry to people who visited China (or the Wuhan region, I forget which).  Many countries in the region (Japan, S. Korea, etc) are doing the same.  Lashing out just makes China seem like it doesn't know what's important: the spread of infection.

Even though markets are moving up today, I said I'd rebalance, so I just completed that.  I don't think it will work out well, because the growth of the virus seems to be stabilizing near +20% a day (according to figures out of China, which are again suspect in my mind).  If the number of cases aren't to be believed, maybe the number who succumb to the virus is likely to be more accurate.  From the Guardian:

"The foreign ministry issued an urgent appeal for protective medical equipment as the total number of casualties reached 361, surpassing deaths in mainland China caused by the 2002-03 Sars virus."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-dozens-more-deaths-chinese-province-centre-outbreak-hubei
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Car Jack on February 04, 2020, 08:31:11 AM
Before the Heineken virus, I was going to take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.

Now, with the Balashi virus all the rage, I will instead take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Daisyedwards800 on February 04, 2020, 10:43:33 AM
Over 20,000 cases now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Maenad on February 04, 2020, 03:08:49 PM
Before the Heineken virus, I was going to take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.

Now, with the Balashi virus all the rage, I will instead take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.

Is the US market open on the 17th? I thought it may be closed for Presidents Day. (I also have RSUs that vest on the 15th that I'll be selling.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Brother Esau on February 04, 2020, 03:33:33 PM
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now


"Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?"

Watching them reach new Tops!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 04, 2020, 11:36:30 PM
The coronavirus isn't the sole thing determining market performance.  Even in China, after stocks dropped -8%, China's bank began pouring liquidity into the market.  At best, we can predict when things will shock people.... for example, will 50k cases shock people?  1,000 people succumbing to the virus?  Both of those are possible this weekend, at current rates of growth.

You can see a very detailed picture of the virus, delayed by about one day, here on the World Health Organization (WHO) website, where they provide situational reports:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

China has finished construction of a 1000-bed hospital in Wuhan, and did so within 10 days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huoshenshan_Hospital

Although impressive, there's 4,000 new cases in the past day (20k to 24k), so that hospital could be filled up in 6 hours worth of today's cases.  And the rate of growth has been stable since Saturday, when 12k cases were growing at +20% per day.  Since then (5 days), the number of cases have doubled to 24k.  The hospitals will be full quite soon.

I saw a video of a foreigner going to buy groceries in Wuhan.  A city with a larger population than London had empty streets - almost no cars or people.  Some people lined up at a pharmacy, and more people were inside buying groceries.  I haven't heard of China taking any new measures based on data - nothing to counter the +20% per day spread.  I would hope China learns more about how the virus is spreading, and takes measures to reduce the growth further.

So at 24k Wed... 29k Thu.. 35k Fri..   Looks like the number of cases could pass 40k this weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 05, 2020, 08:46:47 AM
Flu season goes from Oct-Feb each year. By later in the year, warmer temperatures tend to destabilize these types of viruses in the air. This would imply the Wuhan virus panic is a buying opportunity just like bird flu, SARS, etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Daisyedwards800 on February 05, 2020, 09:58:37 AM
This flu is spreading in places with warm weather.

I am actually shocked that the market hasn't reacted to this news, because it's really bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on February 05, 2020, 05:56:52 PM
Musician Zhang Yarus grandmother died on Monday after slipping into a coma. She was repeatedly turned away from the hospital.

John Chen, a college graduate, is desperately seeking help for his mom. She has a high fever, but isnt strong enough to stand in line for hours to be tested for the virus raging through their city.
- Bloomberg: China Sacrifices a Province to Save the World From Coronavirus (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/china-sacrifices-a-province-to-save-the-world-from-coronavirus)

So there is a strong disincentive to get counted, at least in the Hubei province, and recently China has been reporting 4K new cases per day (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6). I'm not an epidemiologist but I think that it is safe to say that 2019-nCov is now endemic in the Hubei province. The question in this thread is, what does that mean for our investments?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Villanelle on February 05, 2020, 06:23:41 PM
I've also read about shortages in testing kits, which would strongly suggest that cases are being underreported.  If they can't test to confirm someone has it, they can't count them as having had it.

Also, this thread makes me feel like shit because I didn't get my flu vax this year.  I called repeatedly several times through October and everywhere near me was out and out and out.  Then life got crazy and I never got back to it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 05, 2020, 10:40:08 PM
Here's quotes from a CNN.com article on the Wuhan virus, from today:

"no signs of slowing" .. "number of cases in China grew by 3,694, or 15%"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-death-toll-spike-intl-hnk/index.html

First off, my prior post assumed a +20% growth rate, but it looks like something happened to slice away 1/4th of the growth rate, leaving +15%/day.  And the growth rate just fell for the first time in many days, so my prior numbers don't reflect that information.  I predicted 29k, not 28k, which seems like a small difference - but the percentage growth is not.

Maybe the growth falls still further, averaging +12%?
28k Thu -> 32k Fri -> 37k Sat -> ?over 40k Sun?

That's not much of an increase - it means the number of new cases may drop below the prior day's new cases.  Not sure when, but it's looking more likely.  Maybe investors are counting on the end of flu season, as well.  But if they're watching the news, like CNN, they won't know any of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 06, 2020, 09:10:00 AM
Here's quotes from a CNN.com article on the Wuhan virus, from today:

"no signs of slowing" .. "number of cases in China grew by 3,694, or 15%"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-death-toll-spike-intl-hnk/index.html

First off, my prior post assumed a +20% growth rate, but it looks like something happened to slice away 1/4th of the growth rate, leaving +15%/day.  And the growth rate just fell for the first time in many days, so my prior numbers don't reflect that information.  I predicted 29k, not 28k, which seems like a small difference - but the percentage growth is not.

Maybe the growth falls still further, averaging +12%?
28k Thu -> 32k Fri -> 37k Sat -> ?over 40k Sun?

That's not much of an increase - it means the number of new cases may drop below the prior day's new cases.  Not sure when, but it's looking more likely.  Maybe investors are counting on the end of flu season, as well.  But if they're watching the news, like CNN, they won't know any of this.

Let me get this straight: you are trying to out predict the CDC and WHO based on summaries given on CNN?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Retire-Canada on February 06, 2020, 09:17:03 AM
Let me get this straight: you are trying to out predict the CDC and WHO based on summaries given on CNN?

Sounds about right for this thread. ;-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 07, 2020, 04:22:56 AM
Let me get this straight: you are trying to out predict the CDC and WHO based on summaries given on CNN?
If you could quote where you're seeing that, I could better address where I gave you that impression.

I haven't mentioned the CDC in this thread, before now.  I'm not aware of any predictions from WHO or CNN.  I used data from multiple sources, and so far it's always matched WHO's situational reports (a daily summary of cases and locations).  Check WHO's data, and they should match all the raw numbers I've used in this thread.  Take the past two situation reports on WHO's website:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200206-sitrep-17-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=17f0dca_4
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200205-sitrep-16-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=23af287f_4

I normally round the numbers off, but I'll quote the reports.  On Feb 5 there were 24,554 cases worldwide.  On Feb 6 there were 28,276 cases.  Now I divide: 28276 / 24554 = 1.152, or 15% growth.  In one day, cases grew +15%.

Days ago there were +20% new cases per day, for ~4-5 days in a row.  Falling very slowly, if at all.  But now for two days in a row, the growth rate has dropped dramatically.  For today (Fri), I've seen 31k new cases reported by multiple news sources.  That's just +10% growth, the lowest so far.  Compare that to the start of the virus, when it grew +50% per day.  And finally, the news sources seem to be practicing restraint - I don't see terms like "exploding" or "spiking" in the news stories today.



To me, one problem is that CNN doesn't make estimates or predictions.  They seem to just report exciting headlines, but then don't look deeper.  That allows me to predict things before CNN knows what will happen - which I did earlier in this thread.  I predicted 10,000 cases about 4-5 days into the future, and that's what happened - with expected front page news about the surprise of 10,000 cases.

That said, it's looking bad for my prediction for this weekend (over 40k cases).  I used a +12% growth rate, and assumed China hadn't done anything new.  But the past few days have seen growth rate drops: +20% to +15% to +10%.  Even if growth merely holds at +10%, there won't be 40k cases this weekend.  And the number of new cases could slow down further.

Overall, it looks like very good news.  I would expect the virus becomes less and less of a problem over the upcoming week.  That means China's production might start to get back online, and recover.

But investing could be tricky.  China's government has angered it's citizens over its handling of the coronavirus.  I don't know what happens when tens of millions are angry enough to protest, and they all get released back onto the streets at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on February 07, 2020, 09:12:39 AM
That said, it's looking bad for my prediction for this weekend (over 40k cases).  I used a +12% growth rate, and assumed China hadn't done anything new.  But the past few days have seen growth rate drops: +20% to +15% to +10%.  Even if growth merely holds at +10%, there won't be 40k cases this weekend.  And the number of new cases could slow down further.

Your math is flawed. The limit of (daily new cases)/(total cases ever) will approach zero, no matter what, because (total cases ever) will grow unbounded.

To put it another way, on 1/20 China reported 48 new cases. On 2/5 China reported 4k new case. That's two orders of magnitude more, not less. It is true that for the last few days new confirmed cases have been holding steady ~4k/day. I'm not sure that is good news (there were a total of 8K SARS cases) and it may just be the limit of their capacity to run test kits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 07, 2020, 01:48:57 PM
Some good charts in this article about the seasonality of flu-like viruses, with the expected what if disclaimers.

 https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/spring-may-impact-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/675372 (https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/spring-may-impact-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/675372)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 07, 2020, 07:14:45 PM
That said, it's looking bad for my prediction for this weekend (over 40k cases).  I used a +12% growth rate, and assumed China hadn't done anything new.  But the past few days have seen growth rate drops: +20% to +15% to +10%.  Even if growth merely holds at +10%, there won't be 40k cases this weekend.  And the number of new cases could slow down further.
Your math is flawed. The limit of (daily new cases)/(total cases ever) will approach zero, no matter what, because (total cases ever) will grow unbounded.

To put it another way, on 1/20 China reported 48 new cases. On 2/5 China reported 4k new case. That's two orders of magnitude more, not less. It is true that for the last few days new confirmed cases have been holding steady ~4k/day. I'm not sure that is good news (there were a total of 8K SARS cases) and it may just be the limit of their capacity to run test kits.
SARS eventually stopped spreading - the number of new cases approached zero.

These estimates are rather lazy - I'm assuming the entire outbreak can be modeled by looking at the past few days growth in new cases, and estimating the future from that.  It worked fine when the growth rate was constant, under the theory that every existing case has a chance of spreading.

You could be right about coronavirus testing capacity, although I can't find any official figures.  If the capacity is too low, that could be a source of embarrassment for the Chinese government, and they'd probably censor it.  There's numerous stories of people being unable to find a hospital with a test kit.

My original goal was to predict the next exciting news story, which then impacts investments.  Even though China's figures have been questioned by reputable sources such as The Lancet, the WHO and news media are sticking with China's official numbers.  I knew the news would report on 10,000 cases... but now, I'm not really sure what they will report on next.  So my estimates are probably no longer useful in that regard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: abhisharma01 on February 12, 2020, 07:45:29 AM
I believe this is the best time to invest and buy and I'm going to buy more
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on February 15, 2020, 12:29:06 AM
Here come the headlines again
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: caracarn on February 25, 2020, 12:56:13 PM
So as the markets in the US get hammered for the third day in a row on worries over the impact, I was just reviving this thread rather than starting a new one.

I actually added about 1% to my investment total Monday when things dropped over 1,000 points (order was placed Saturday so just happened to be what happened).  As I write this Dow is down almost another 900 today, so perhaps we will see the first ever two 1,000 point drops in two consecutive days, but in any event likely to not turn around much.

So obviously this has a short term impact, but overall not as if companies are going to disappear because of a virus outbreak, so my assumption is nothing to see here, move along and once the contagion runs its course things will return to "normal".  Do others agree, or have another perspective?  I do not see any changes in fundamentals, just that lots of investors are bailing and moving per the normal reactionary model that drives these types of drops.   If we do get two 1,000 point days might end up in correction territory soon and getting this out of the market's system is also a good thing I would think. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Reynold on February 25, 2020, 02:05:56 PM
I'm expecting the market to drop some more, because;

1. People who figured they could just avoid Asia and avoid the problem are now faced with having to avoid Europe as well (vacationers from Italy spreading around the region).  That's a lot of the developed world to avoid, and brings the problem "home" to more people. 

2. While the fatality rate of this is significantly lower than SARs, the combination of very long incubation periods (a recent report was of a 27 day incubation period in one person) and what seems like significantly higher transmissibility means this is going to be very hard to contain. The flu may kill more people, but you aren't required to report to a hospital and stay in quarantine for the flu, the medical system in hard hit areas is really struggling with capacity. 

3. China is a much, much bigger part of the global supply chain, both as a buyer and seller, than it was when SARs hit.  Even if they could get everyone to work in the factories in the affected areas, it will be very hard to get goods in and out.  A lot of companies relying on just in time inventory are going to start being unable to ship products. 

The tough part is going to be calling the market bottom to shift over some cash I have, I think there will be a lot of market whiplash based on medical headlines, which are hard to predict. . . 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 25, 2020, 02:23:42 PM
When my employer changed 401k providers, I was switched from a 60/40 balanced fund to a default 90/10 lifecycle fund. This move screwed me over (by about $4400) because they kept me in cash from 1/1 to 1/21, during which time the market went up 3%. Then on 1/21 they put me in the 90/10 fund and the market dropped 3% in the next couple of weeks. But then I made it all back because I held the 90/10 fund through the middle of February as a momentum trade. A week ago, I reallocated to about a 25/75 allocation FTW, just in time for the pandemic panic!

TL;DR:
I got screwed over by a third partys inadvertent market timing, then executed nearly perfect market timing in correcting the issue, coming out ahead in the end.

Pure luck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: caracarn on February 25, 2020, 02:48:20 PM
Yes, I'm not looking to market time anything, let alone a pandemic.  Was more asking about underlying economic fundamentals shifting in any way, which I do not see how a virus would cause that but just thinking out loud to hear the other thoughts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 25, 2020, 02:54:17 PM
(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106409247-158266523975820200225_3_pct_drops.png?v=1582665250&w=740&h=416)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Sibley on February 25, 2020, 03:08:28 PM
Did the market drop? OK.

I have this stuff automated for a reason. I do not want to deal with it. Even if the markets crash, its all on paper until I sell. So, I won't sell. Anything I buy might be on sale, which, cool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: bthewalls on February 25, 2020, 03:21:55 PM
Coronaviris......its a bad flu!...its not Ebola or the Black Death

Media loves to sensationalise this crap

The coming market hysteria is merely a buying opportunity surely....

Standard flu kills 1 percent of those who get it as standard, mainly old and weak unfortunately ....yeah corno is bad.....but its still just flu

B
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: brooklynmoney on February 25, 2020, 03:31:37 PM
I bought a lot of VTI today. Catching a falling knife but hopefully pays off in long run (ie years from now)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on February 25, 2020, 04:18:37 PM
Standard flu kills 1 percent of those who get it as standard, mainly old and weak unfortunately ....yeah corno is bad.....but its still just flu

Normal influenza kills 0.1% (that's 1/10 of 1/%, or 1 in 1000 cases), not 1%. Just FYI. I'm not sure we know enough to say what the death rate is from Covid-19, especially in an industrialized/advanced country like the US. If it's 1-2%, though, that would make it very, very bad as compared to seasonal influenza. Not Captain Trips, obviously, but enough to cause meaningful problems and a lot of deaths of elderly and immunocompromised people.

The other question is how easily it spreads/how many people it infects. Most seasonal flus aren't too bad that way. Covid-19, we don't know yet. If half the population gets it, and it kills 2% of those people... that's a big deal. If only a couple percent get it, not so much.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: use2betrix on February 25, 2020, 06:03:53 PM
I keep a large emergency fund due to the volatility of my work as a contractor, and really because I like the idea of being able to say FU at any time. Also because I invest nearly 100% in stocks (mostly VTSAX), the cash also limits my exposure.

That being said, with these market drops and with the current security of my job, I will be ok dumping some of my emergency fund into the market. If the DOW drops below 27k (very close now) Ill drop $10k or $15k in, then continue suit for each 1000 drop below the 27k mark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 25, 2020, 06:34:17 PM
The S&P 500 is actually down just over 7.6% from the closing high of the year on Feb 19th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on February 25, 2020, 06:43:49 PM
Coronaviris......its a bad flu!...its not Ebola or the Black Death

Media loves to sensationalise this crap

The coming market hysteria is merely a buying opportunity surely....

Standard flu kills 1 percent of those who get it as standard, mainly old and weak unfortunately ....yeah corno is bad.....but its still just flu

B


You might be interested in John Barry's book about the 1918 flu epidemic, which killed between 40 and 100 million people.

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Influenza-Deadliest-Pandemic-History-ebook/dp/B000OCXFWE/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1582680633&sr=8-2

A constant refrain throughout the book is people dismissed it because it was "just flu."  Right up until they died. 

Standard flu has mortality rate of about 0.1%--not 1% as you claim.     Corona virus flu has a mortality rate of about 2%, as far as we can tell.  Much, much, more serious than regular flu.   By comparison Spanish Flu had a mortality rate about of 2-3%. 

COVID-19 is not contained, there will be no vaccine for at least a year, and it is possible there will never be a vaccine. 

I don't think it is time to push the panic button, but this is potentially a major public health issue.  No one knows how this plays out, but the worst case scenario is pretty bad.  That's why dozens of cities across the globe are in lockdown. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on February 25, 2020, 07:02:49 PM
They are talking about shutting down schools for up to 3 weeks. That WILL have a big shock to the economy. I am taking profits and moving to a more conservative allocations by halving my stock allocations. I see a higher probability of downside at this CAPE then upside and willing to risk losing some gains vs massive losses and I would love to be able to buy back in at more reasonable valuations. I don't think the fed can print their way out of that kind of shock this time, but who knows. I have been wrong many times before...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Freedomin5 on February 25, 2020, 09:03:31 PM
The US CDC is telling people to prepare for a coronavirus outbreak. If this thing hits the US like it hit us in Shanghai, the economy will definitely be impacted. Closing schools for three weeks is nothing. Schools in China have been closed since the end of January, with no opening date in sight. For several weeks, the streets were empty. Businesses with tight cashflow went bankrupt. Other businesses are slowly ramping up but still not able to operate at capacity. This is like a black swan event. At least thats what it felt like in Shanghai when I walked through completely empty streets in a city of 25 million people. It was eerily quiet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Travis on February 26, 2020, 04:39:37 AM
The US military bases in Korea are on a gradually increasing lock down.  In Daegu where this thing exploded last week nobody is allowed in or out except with General Officer approval.  There's a testing backlog of about 10,000 so results are 2-3 days out.  Here in Pyeongtek we're not allowed to go to off-post bars or restaurants until further notice. No off-post movie theaters, and no off-post church services.  They're instituting medical screenings at the gate which brought traffic across town to a standstill. It broke the bus/taxi system because it was impossible to move on the roads this morning.  Moving a few miles in a car took 3 hours. Standing in line with my bicycle on my 2 mile commute took 100 minutes.  This is a microcosm of what other major cities will endure if this thing continues for a few more weeks.  In Wuhan which has been a ghost town for a month, the Chinese government is considering letting people go back to work because the factories have been idle which increases the risk of more people getting sick.  Nobody is traveling to China right now and it sounds like they're going to start tightening travel to and from Korea. 

Whether the virus is super deadly or not is not really the point. Even everyone "just getting the flu" is bad enough.  Imagine what happens to you when you get the flu. Now imagine your entire city having it at the same time.  And your health care system is already strained on a good day.  A vaccine is in test phase, but it could be weeks or months before it's approved, and even then they'll need to make a billion doses.

All that said. I'm not touching my investments. It may take weeks or months, but it'll pass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 26, 2020, 07:55:29 AM
The figures I saw (BBC article reporting on research paper from China) showed high risk for elderly.  If you're young and not afraid, that's fine: a 0.2% death rate for those in their 30s backs that feeling up.  But people in their 80s have a 15% death rate, which is hardly flu numbers.

Investments aren't solely about this being a bad flu, either.  Look at how governments respond: China locks down a region with tens of millions of people.  Nobody going to work, no malls open.. nothing.  Empty streets.  With countries not allowing travelers from China, a huge number of tourists aren't traveling.  When a new city gets the virus, that city gets locked down... and then travel plans get canceled.

This week stocks dropped almost -8%, which is more in line with SARS (from one source that I haven't verified).  But with all the economic disruption (like supply chains with parts / components from China), I don't see how this could be the same as SARS.  If the markets are relatively calm in March, while COVID-19 continues, I'd expect a lot of stock market panic when the data comes out (2020 Q1 reports by companies).

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 26, 2020, 08:02:52 AM
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MissNancyPryor on February 26, 2020, 08:16:47 AM
As far as doing something specifically because of the recent virus-caused tumult, I will make my full 2020 HSA investment contribution all at once and earlier than planned. 

If the chickens go on sale by another 5% I will move some cash reserves over to VTSAX in my brokerage account. 

Look at me, all market-timey like.     
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on February 26, 2020, 08:53:18 AM
No change. My twice a month 401k contribution will be buying a couple more shares for a while since equities are on sale. I'm glad I bumped my traditional and Roth up to 25% combined at the beginning of the year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 26, 2020, 09:04:38 AM
Oh no! I just realized I double market timed as my entire position in HAO, Invesco's the Chinese focused ETF, was sold off two weeks ago. It wasn't my fault as Invesco liquidated the fund on February 14th (before the 7% drop), so it looks I very successfully unintentionally market timed. 

https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?ticker=HAO (https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?ticker=HAO)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: harvestbook on February 26, 2020, 11:12:25 AM
I having a feeling "But the regular flu" is going to be the "But her emails" of 2020.

I'm not doing anything with my portfolio, but I expect it to be bad primarily because of hubris and an endemic lack of national/international organization and leadership. There's no one to trust when everyone lies for political benefit. Killing off 2 percent of the planet solves the Social Security puzzle, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 26, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
I having a feeling "But the regular flu" is going to be the "But her emails" of 2020.

I'm not doing anything with my portfolio, but I expect it to be bad primarily because of hubris and an endemic lack of national/international organization and leadership. There's no one to trust when everyone lies for political benefit. Killing off 2 percent of the planet solves the Social Security puzzle, I guess.

Depends on which 2% it kills.  H1N1 was so disruptive (both times) because it adversely impacted working-age adults relative to other epidemics. Infections that target children are even more damaging, as they impact the productivity of the parents while putting a dent int he demographics which echos decades later.
...but yeah - if senior citizens start dropping like flies a whole lot of wealth suddenly is released and a lot of social programs change around.  And to think how angry people got over the false idea of death panels /sarcasm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on February 26, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!

I'm kidding, sort of. But it would be interesting intellectually to see what happened to some items (real estate, gold, private planes, to some extent firearms/ammo) that are disproportionately owned by the elderly males in our society.

For instance, I know someone in his 70s who probably has $50k+ worth of shotguns (it could be way more than that, some of them are antiques I believe) as well as other various firearms. None of his kids hunt or shoot or give a crap. That whole collection goes straight up for sale when he dies, guaranteed. He's got all kinds of other similar stuff (vintage ICE cars, sports memorabilia) that aren't interesting to millennials either.

There are some items that would really collapse in value, I bet.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 26, 2020, 12:36:42 PM
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!

I'm kidding, sort of. But it would be interesting intellectually to see what happened to some items (real estate, gold, private planes, to some extent firearms/ammo) that are disproportionately owned by the elderly males in our society.

For instance, I know someone in his 70s who probably has $50k+ worth of shotguns (it could be way more than that, some of them are antiques I believe) as well as other various firearms. None of his kids hunt or shoot or give a crap. That whole collection goes straight up for sale when he dies, guaranteed. He's got all kinds of other similar stuff (vintage ICE cars, sports memorabilia) that aren't interesting to millennials either.

There are some items that would really collapse in value, I bet.

-W

In a way we see these generational shifts from time to time even without a big epidemic.  Pianos (particularly the upright kind) are the latest example; no one wants them, no one wants to store them.  In the 50s-80s it seemed every house had to own one, and every kid had to learn to play.  Now I see ones on freecycle daily that cost over $5k new.  From several thousand $ to essentially worthless.

My city had such a glut they turned several dozen into an art exhibit... artists painted them to look pretty and built alcoves in public places, and anyone could just walk up and start playing a (badly tuned) piano.

Most formal sterling silverwear is worth more melted down than as forks and knives. Save a few collectible designs formal china is free wear too now.  PLus countless other items that were must-haves in the 70s/80s but millenials/Xers spurn in the 2020s.




Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 26, 2020, 01:17:27 PM
In a way we see these generational shifts from time to time even without a big epidemic.  Pianos (particularly the upright kind) are the latest example; no one wants them, no one wants to store them.  In the 50s-80s it seemed every house had to own one, and every kid had to learn to play.  Now I see ones on freecycle daily that cost over $5k new.  From several thousand $ to essentially worthless.

Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on February 26, 2020, 03:15:59 PM
Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.

I'm stocking up on BTS t-shirts. In 50 years I'll be rolling in dough!

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 26, 2020, 03:17:57 PM
Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.

I'm stocking up on BTS t-shirts. In 50 years I'll be rolling in dough!

-W

Buy pumpkin futures now. Sell just around New Years...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: UnleashHell on February 26, 2020, 03:21:42 PM
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!



-W

Bernie might be in trouble.
and the voting demographic of the Republicans....

and all that lovely inheritance flowing into the hands of new folks. that'll help the economy!!

see - its not all doom and gloom....
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: use2betrix on February 26, 2020, 07:08:30 PM
My cash reserves are a bit fat right now as my 401k and bi-weekly VTSAX contributions are a bit less than my actual savings. I dropped $15k into VTSAX today. Needed to do it anyways. If it keeps dropping Id be willing to put in another $40k-$50k or so in. Either way is fine. If it drops, happy to put it in. If it goes back up, happy to keep the large FU fund as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 26, 2020, 08:25:51 PM
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!



-W

Bernie might be in trouble.
and the voting demographic of the Republicans....

and all that lovely inheritance flowing into the hands of new folks. that'll help the economy!!

see - its not all doom and gloom....

Careful what you joke for. I've been hearing the demographic argument for 20 years now, so it is entirely possible this virus becomes the new great hope for How We Will Sit On Our Asses And Still Win Elections In The Future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on February 26, 2020, 10:01:26 PM
In a way we see these generational shifts from time to time even without a big epidemic.  Pianos (particularly the upright kind) are the latest example; no one wants them, no one wants to store them.  In the 50s-80s it seemed every house had to own one, and every kid had to learn to play.  Now I see ones on freecycle daily that cost over $5k new.  From several thousand $ to essentially worthless.

Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.

Hopefully the kids are still into MONEY when Im old
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on February 26, 2020, 10:02:23 PM
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Monerexia on February 26, 2020, 10:29:19 PM
Buying the index daily all the way down. The only way to keep the 4% house advantage is to cover all bets all the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DK on February 27, 2020, 06:10:24 AM
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM

Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 27, 2020, 06:19:14 AM
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM

3.25% on a 30 year. With a $220,000 loan balance, the 0.45% drop in rate will cover the closing costs in a bit over a year and a half.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 27, 2020, 06:23:10 AM
Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

Even if you were to continue to pay off your mortgage quickly, it still might be beneficial to refinance. My general rule of thumb is that a refi needs to pay for itself in two years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 27, 2020, 08:05:20 AM

I'm definitely sitting tight with my 42% equities AA.

Looks like the Dow is down about 600 points after the latest COVID-19 news that I posted in the other thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2569312/#msg2569312
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: jinga nation on February 27, 2020, 01:58:11 PM
The US military bases in Korea are on a gradually increasing lock down.  In Daegu where this thing exploded last week nobody is allowed in or out except with General Officer approval.  There's a testing backlog of about 10,000 so results are 2-3 days out.  Here in Pyeongtek we're not allowed to go to off-post bars or restaurants until further notice. No off-post movie theaters, and no off-post church services.  They're instituting medical screenings at the gate which brought traffic across town to a standstill. It broke the bus/taxi system because it was impossible to move on the roads this morning.  Moving a few miles in a car took 3 hours. Standing in line with my bicycle on my 2 mile commute took 100 minutes.  This is a microcosm of what other major cities will endure if this thing continues for a few more weeks.  In Wuhan which has been a ghost town for a month, the Chinese government is considering letting people go back to work because the factories have been idle which increases the risk of more people getting sick.  Nobody is traveling to China right now and it sounds like they're going to start tightening travel to and from Korea. 

Whether the virus is super deadly or not is not really the point. Even everyone "just getting the flu" is bad enough.  Imagine what happens to you when you get the flu. Now imagine your entire city having it at the same time.  And your health care system is already strained on a good day.  A vaccine is in test phase, but it could be weeks or months before it's approved, and even then they'll need to make a billion doses.

All that said. I'm not touching my investments. It may take weeks or months, but it'll pass.

Just want to say thanks for the info. Couple of co-workers were supposed to travel to your location next week. All non-mission-essential travel has been cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on February 27, 2020, 02:09:43 PM
Well it started in my area today in PNW. Some schools shut down, people have to stay home to watch kids. Stocked up on necessities and have little equity risk now. I recently hit FI and the feeling (yes I know, feelings) I got from it improved my entire life. I do not want to lose it. I am willing to take the risk off the table and miss some upside, but at this CAPE level I see more downside then up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on February 27, 2020, 02:43:35 PM
Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

Even if you were to continue to pay off your mortgage quickly, it still might be beneficial to refinance. My general rule of thumb is that a refi needs to pay for itself in two years.

My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Daisyedwards800 on February 27, 2020, 02:52:09 PM
I got out 70% of my investments a couple weeks ago. The rest is still in but I will leave it alone for 30 years.

I was closely following the news out of China and the rate of infection.  It looked really bad with no signs of slowing down and every time I posted regarding investments, people who actually work on Wall Street etc. kept saying it'll be just like SARS and the flu is worse.  I knew they hadn't priced this in at all.  Glad I chose to get out - first time in 16 years I've ever taken any investments out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: use2betrix on February 27, 2020, 03:06:11 PM
My cash reserves are a bit fat right now as my 401k and bi-weekly VTSAX contributions are a bit less than my actual savings. I dropped $15k into VTSAX today. Needed to do it anyways. If it keeps dropping Id be willing to put in another $40k-$50k or so in. Either way is fine. If it drops, happy to put it in. If it goes back up, happy to keep the large FU fund as well.

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MoneyGoatee on February 27, 2020, 03:43:10 PM

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 27, 2020, 03:46:44 PM
He's got all kinds of other similar stuff (vintage ICE cars, sports memorabilia) that aren't interesting to millennials either.

I'll do everyone a favor and accept the vintage cars...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on February 27, 2020, 04:02:12 PM

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.

Yeah, looks like a building panic. The market seems to overreact in the short term.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugaldrummer on February 27, 2020, 04:40:38 PM
Quote
every time I posted regarding investments, people who actually work on Wall Street etc. kept saying it'll be just like SARS and the flu is worse.  I knew they hadn't priced this in at all.

Exactly this, Daisy. I've never timed the market in my life but felt this time it was just too obvious what was going to happen. Plus the market was so overvalued to begin with. I'm hoping to make some extra money as I reinvest, started another thread earlier to discuss how best to do that but most people seem to be more invested in denying this is happening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: js82 on February 27, 2020, 07:38:48 PM

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.

If you're trying to read tea leaves, consider:

-Coronavirus has a substantially longer documented incubation period than the flu/most other similar illnesses
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm

This considered, I think it(coronavirus, not necessarily the markets) is going to get significantly worse before it gets better - I expect the weather to curb transmission before we have a vaccine available in sufficient quantities to impact the total number of cases (most likely it will initially be targeted towards high-risk populations such as the elderly and medical professionals).  Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.

Personally I'm not trying to time the market, because my previous efforts at doing so have generally yielded poor results.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Joe Schmo on February 27, 2020, 08:02:02 PM
I havent got much. One comma. I plan on buying as much as I can for as long as its financially responsible to do so. The only problem is that Im not on automatic investments for my vanguard acct so Ill have to make a decision every month on what to buy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: the_fixer on February 27, 2020, 08:26:55 PM
Did my taxes last week and was waiting to see what our MAGI ended up being so we know how much we could fund our 2019.

Made the transfer today we will see what happens :)



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 28, 2020, 12:15:12 AM
I wanted to wait for bad quarterly reports in April, but markets and the news are running downhill at an amazing pace.  I'll have to rebalance today, selling bonds and buying stocks.

One way to deal with sequence of returns risk is a "bond tent".  Your bond allocation increases until your retirement date, then decreases.  There's different approaches as to speed, starting and ending points.  Rather than do mine time based, I do it "market drop" based, roughly.

So when the market drops this much in a week, I'll want to not only rebalance, but increase my equity allocation a tiny bit.  Need to act before some good news spoils the fearful mood on the markets.

May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugaldrummer on February 28, 2020, 01:51:41 AM
Quote
May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).

Good point!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: use2betrix on February 28, 2020, 08:18:08 AM

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.

If you're trying to read tea leaves, consider:

-Coronavirus has a substantially longer documented incubation period than the flu/most other similar illnesses
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm

This considered, I think it(coronavirus, not necessarily the markets) is going to get significantly worse before it gets better - I expect the weather to curb transmission before we have a vaccine available in sufficient quantities to impact the total number of cases (most likely it will initially be targeted towards high-risk populations such as the elderly and medical professionals).  Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.

Personally I'm not trying to time the market, because my previous efforts at doing so have generally yielded poor results.

I dont typically try and time the market. I have $4k automatically deposited into VTSAX twice every month, and also contribute enough into my 401k each month that Ill max it out each year. I maxed my HSA in January and invested it then as well.

As of earlier this week I had about $120k in my emergency fund. I like the big cushion but really only need around $60k to still feel comfortable. With this in mind, I dont mind timing the market with part of my excessive emergency fund. Better investing it now than it was a month ago. Might still drop more, in which case Im only slowly dumping it in and will keep going.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: NotJen on February 28, 2020, 08:51:35 AM
May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).

Hmmm.  Now you've got me considering market timing....
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 08:54:04 AM
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm

Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.

It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn

Quote

Hoping that we make it to warmer weather before the coronavirus possibly arrives in the United States in force?

Dont bother, scientists say. Unlike with the seasonal flu, the change of seasons may not matter much to the coronavirus.

I'm not timing the market, and I'm not buying any more than I normally would.  I think the market has got quite a ways to drop still before it finds a bottom, and we likely will go into a recession with no quick recovery.  Don't try to catch a falling knife.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MoneyGoatee on February 28, 2020, 11:03:22 AM
If you're trying to read tea leaves,

If the market down time has enough depth and breadth, then it's less of a crap shoot and you can get enough of a window to buy low.  You don't need to buy at the absolute low point, of course.  But you can get reasonably close to the lowest point by looking at the 100-day average or similar metrics -- but again, only if the down time has enough breadth, I.e. duration.

During 2008, the down time lasted for months, and Dow's lowest point was at 6000s, briefly.  I used the 100-day average and bought at 7000s to 9000s, which was still not too bad.


Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 28, 2020, 11:25:30 AM
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm
Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.
It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn


Based on the article you cited, that's almost exactly what scientists are expecting:
Quote
While it is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures, it will be encountering a completely susceptible U.S. population, said Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at Penn State University.

The completely susceptible population is the same regardless of weather.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Ricochet on February 28, 2020, 11:32:37 AM
I wanted to wait for bad quarterly reports in April, but markets and the news are running downhill at an amazing pace.  I'll have to rebalance today, selling bonds and buying stocks.

One way to deal with sequence of returns risk is a "bond tent".  Your bond allocation increases until your retirement date, then decreases.  There's different approaches as to speed, starting and ending points.  Rather than do mine time based, I do it "market drop" based, roughly.

So when the market drops this much in a week, I'll want to not only rebalance, but increase my equity allocation a tiny bit.  Need to act before some good news spoils the fearful mood on the markets.

May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).
Good call. I dropped some bond funds in my 401k for stock funds, since I have many years to let it recover.  I also picked up some beaten down Cruise line stocks with extra cash, because this 'panic' of COVID-19 will pass soon (fingers crossed) and people will get back to their normal vacation habits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on February 28, 2020, 01:45:16 PM
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm
Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.
It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn


Based on the article you cited, that's almost exactly what scientists are expecting:
Quote
While it is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures, it will be encountering a completely susceptible U.S. population, said Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at Penn State University.

The completely susceptible population is the same regardless of weather.

Its not that warm weather cant slow the virus.  Its that we really dont know anything for sure because its novel.  Some viruses are certainly slowed by warm weather
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 02:24:46 PM
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm
Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.
It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn


Based on the article you cited, that's almost exactly what scientists are expecting:
Quote
While it is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures, it will be encountering a completely susceptible U.S. population, said Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at Penn State University.

The completely susceptible population is the same regardless of weather.

Yes, that's what the the scientists are saying, which is DIFFERENT than what Trump was saying.  Here's another article about that:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485052-trump-says-coronavirus-will-die-off-in-warmer

Quote
Trump says coronavirus will die off in warmer weather. Is he right?

Experts say its a comforting thought, but theres no evidence that will happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on February 28, 2020, 02:39:07 PM
more accurately, the scientists involved are all stressing that it's still so early the outbreak that there's a lot we don't know, but here are our best estimates based on what we've seen so far.
Lethality, R0, contagiousness of pre-symptomatic patients, are all estimates now with a great deal of uncertainty.

We won't know for another couple of years whether this is a disease that our immune systems will 'remember' (preventing the same person from getting it twice, and making a future vaccine more effective), or if patients will be as or even more susceptible during future outbreaks.

So most of these predictions are multiplying these uncertainties. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 28, 2020, 03:01:25 PM
Yes, that's what the the scientists are saying, which is DIFFERENT than what Trump was saying.  Here's another article about that:
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485052-trump-says-coronavirus-will-die-off-in-warmer
Quote
Trump says coronavirus will die off in warmer weather. Is he right?
Experts say its a comforting thought, but theres no evidence that will happen.

So you're saying that these two statements are wildy different?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 03:13:08 PM
Yes, that's what the the scientists are saying, which is DIFFERENT than what Trump was saying.  Here's another article about that:
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485052-trump-says-coronavirus-will-die-off-in-warmer
Quote
Trump says coronavirus will die off in warmer weather. Is he right?
Experts say its a comforting thought, but theres no evidence that will happen.

So you're saying that these two statements are wildy different?
  • The heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus
  • "It is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures"

Be careful about taking things out of context.  We're talking about the spread of the virus due to seasonal weather.  The scientists are saying there's no evidence that it won't spread in warmer weather, not agreeing with Trumps claims that it will just disappear like a miracle in warmer weather.  In fact, it's already spreading in warmer climates.

From the article, CDC stated:
Quote
In short, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the spread of the disease will abate with warmer weather. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) notes that at this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on February 28, 2020, 03:21:22 PM
From the article, CDC stated:
Quote
In short, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the spread of the disease will abate with warmer weather. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) notes that at this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer.

Or to put it another way: look at all the cases in Singapore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 03:21:33 PM
We won't know for another couple of years whether this is a disease that our immune systems will 'remember' (preventing the same person from getting it twice, and making a future vaccine more effective), or if patients will be as or even more susceptible during future outbreaks.

Early indications are that you can be reinfected even a short time after recovering from the virus, so it appears there is no built up immunity to the virus, and it may be even worse the second time around.   Not a conclusion, of course.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8055857/Coronavirus-patient-recovered-disease-tests-positive-four-days-later.html

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/wuhan-whistle-blower-doctors-warn-of-deadlier-covid-19-reinfection/ar-BB10r26O

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer-idUSKCN20M124
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 03:25:24 PM
From the article, CDC stated:
Quote
In short, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the spread of the disease will abate with warmer weather. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) notes that at this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer.

Or to put it another way: look at all the cases in Singapore.

Indeed.  Someone else had also mentioned Singapore specifically in one of these threads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on February 28, 2020, 03:27:39 PM
Be careful about taking things out of context ... The scientists are saying there's no evidence that it won't spread in warmer weather, not agreeing with Trumps claims that it will just disappear like a miracle in warmer weather.  In fact, it's already spreading in warmer climates.

You keep arguing that Trump is saying that the virus will just go away in the summer, but all the actual quotes you've linked to so far deal with generalities based on past trends, similar to what scientists are saying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on February 28, 2020, 03:33:16 PM
You keep arguing that Trump is saying that the virus will just go away in the summer, but all the actual quotes you've linked to so far deal with generalities based on past trends, similar to what scientists are saying.

"The virus that were talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April" - https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/donald-trump-coronavirus-warm-weather

"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear." - https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-miracle-stock-markets/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 03:33:30 PM
Be careful about taking things out of context ... The scientists are saying there's no evidence that it won't spread in warmer weather, not agreeing with Trumps claims that it will just disappear like a miracle in warmer weather.  In fact, it's already spreading in warmer climates.

You keep arguing that Trump is saying that the virus will just go away in the summer, but all the actual quotes you've linked to so far deal with generalities based on past trends, similar to what scientists are saying.

Actually, I didn't say summer.  I've read/seen this info various places.  April was the specific month Trump was giving.

Here is a fact check from a Washington Post article.

Quote
On Feb. 10, Trump said a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. Four days later, he again said: Theres a theory that, in April, when it gets warm historically, that has been able to kill the virus.

Multiple public health officials from the administration have contradicted that prediction, which appears rooted in the idea that U.S. flu season generally ends in the spring. The virus is spreading in Singapore, where temperatures are akin to summer in the United States

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/28/fact-checking-president-trumps-coronavirus-news-conference/

My previous link also linked to this video of Trump giving this info.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/10/trump-rallies-new-hampshire-eve-democratic-primary/4716223002/
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on February 28, 2020, 03:48:30 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 04:01:40 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

It seems like the numbers are moving in the direction of a higher fatality rate when just looking at those cured vs. died while excluding those who are still infected, worsened if people are reinfected as appears to have happened in some cases.  Too early to jump to conclusions about that, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: the_fixer on February 28, 2020, 04:19:57 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

Interestingly enough I was just at Costco picking up standard items for next week and I was really surprised how empty the shelves were of items.

One of the things we needed was toilet paper and they still had some but they were out of paper towels. An employee was standing in that area telling everyone they were out and hoping to get more in this week and also mentioned they were out of rice, flour, Clorox wipes, and a few other things.

Multiple people shopping were wearing masks, gloves and they had someone wiping shopping cart handles down as they were handing them to people.

As I took my stuff out to the car there was a guy loading a pallet of rice and water into a SUV floor to ceiling full.

My most interesting trip to Costco yet




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FIRE Artist on February 28, 2020, 05:32:44 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

Interestingly enough I was just at Costco picking up standard items for next week and I was really surprised how empty the shelves were of items.

One of the things we needed was toilet paper and they still had some but they were out of paper towels. An employee was standing in that area telling everyone they were out and hoping to get more in this week and also mentioned they were out of rice, flour, Clorox wipes, and a few other things.

Multiple people shopping were wearing masks, gloves and they had someone wiping shopping cart handles down as they were handing them to people.

As I took my stuff out to the car there was a guy loading a pallet of rice and water into a SUV floor to ceiling full.

My most interesting trip to Costco yet




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This boggles my mind.  If you need to go into quarantine, or god forbid, your city were on lock down for the virus, wouldnt you want to provide yourself with some variety in your diet?  Why stockpile all that in rice and only rice?  China has thus far managed to keep the lights on, and the taps running, so why are people treating this like refrigerators and freezers wont be working?  The messaging here in Canada is you may want to think about having a couple of weeks of food and meds in your house, not you need to stock up for the fin apocalypse. 

My prediction - the food banks will be super happy with the flood of dry goods coming their way in about 3 months. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on February 28, 2020, 09:20:11 PM
As someone who helps run a food bank, I say, awesome. Buy up those beans and rice! I'll pass them out to folks who really need them later.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: moneytaichi on February 28, 2020, 09:59:34 PM
Beans and rice make up the complete nutritional meal :-)

As a person who grew up in the post-famine era in China (70s), I can understand the impulse to buy rice. One time when I was in a shop with empty shelve for rice, it sent a chill to my spine. It's just a PTSD response. I agree it makes more sense to store up besides rice. How about millet, quinoa, beans, lentils, flour, noodles...? We are so lucky that we still have options to stock up. Many people in other parts of world don't have even basic staples for everyday life.

Besides preparing for our food, toilet tissues and stocks, let's also send some prayers or good wishes for people who are stuck and hungry.

Don't mean to give a morale lesson here. It's a reminder for myself too that we are so incredibly lucky to be in this part of the world. It fits with Mustache motto.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: magnet18 on February 28, 2020, 11:07:23 PM
Yea, i stockpiled 130,000 calories of rice and beans this week.  Rice and beans are the absolute cheapest way to buy carbs and protein, non-perishible, and darn good packing efficiency too.  They just make sense. A month of (bland) food can be had for about $50/person. Not trying to live like a king, it's in case of an almost certainly not going to happen emergency.

I 100% expect to have absolutely no use for a stockpile, but better safe than sorry, and at least I won't have to buy rice or beans for a few months.


Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.



Oh yea, as for investments, pull out of the market entirely and wait for the pandemic to cause a surplus in housing, then buy up rental houses and wait for the population to recover.
</Humor>
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: mies on February 29, 2020, 03:47:19 AM
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Freedomin5 on February 29, 2020, 04:54:00 AM
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

Another reason to stockpile is to avoid going to crowded places like grocery stores. If I only go food shopping once every two or three weeks (versus a couple times a week), I cut down on my likelihood of coming in contact with someone who has the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Friar on February 29, 2020, 05:16:10 AM
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

Another reason to stockpile is to avoid going to crowded places like grocery stores. If I only go food shopping once every two or three weeks (versus a couple times a week), I cut down on my likelihood of coming in contact with someone who has the virus.

Do you top up for fresh fruit and vegetables, or go exclusively frozen?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on February 29, 2020, 08:25:29 AM
Yea, i stockpiled 130,000 calories of rice and beans this week.  Rice and beans are the absolute cheapest way to buy carbs and protein, non-perishible, and darn good packing efficiency too.  They just make sense. A month of (bland) food can be had for about $50/person. Not trying to live like a king, it's in case of an almost certainly not going to happen emergency.

I 100% expect to have absolutely no use for a stockpile, but better safe than sorry, and at least I won't have to buy rice or beans for a few months.


Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

So about forty pounds each of rice and beans? That makes an impressive pile.

Do remember to store fats at the same time as your protein and carbohydrates. A regular big bottle of cooking oil is a few bucks for ~12,000 calories, and rice and beans taste a LOT better if you're not eating them without any fat/salt/seasoning.

Stores remain well stocked where I am too. The only potential corona virus related shortage I noticed was that I picked up the absolute last bottle of hand sanitizer at the local Target (which means I have a weird scented kind but still seems like good practice to have something in the car).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Freedomin5 on February 29, 2020, 08:48:13 AM
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

Another reason to stockpile is to avoid going to crowded places like grocery stores. If I only go food shopping once every two or three weeks (versus a couple times a week), I cut down on my likelihood of coming in contact with someone who has the virus.

Do you top up for fresh fruit and vegetables, or go exclusively frozen?

Any fruits/veggies that can last in the cold cellar (or in our case, the garage), so potatoes, carrots, apples, onions, oranges, etc. We also stocked up on canned veggies. Our freezer space is limited, so we keep meats and seafood in there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Helvegen on February 29, 2020, 09:39:12 AM
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

I was at Costco yesterday and I live where there have been several reported cases already. No one was panic buying anything, TP and water were stacked to the ceiling. Nobody cares as far as I can tell.

I keep a general stockpile of crap because our power tends to go out in winter storms all the time. Maybe lots of other people around here do the same and there is nothing to go apeshit about yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 29, 2020, 10:16:06 AM
What I saw Friday was almost literally all bad news.  Any good news Saturday, Sunday or Monday would seem to spoil the market panic, so I bought in on Friday (about 11:15 EST, with Us markets down -3.3% at the time).  I think I hit the lowest point Friday, which ended down -0.7%... so for now, my investment is up about +2.5%.

I'm trying to do the tail end of a "bond tent", where I increase equity allocation after market drops.  So I did a small increase Monday, and then read Friday as 100% panic in the markets, and pushed up my stock percentage by +2.25%.  So I rebalanced from bonds to stocks because of losses, and then sold even more bonds to shift into stocks.

So... when the market was in a gut-wrenching panic, I bought.  If the losses continue next week, so be it.  I think I spotted the moment of maximum panic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on February 29, 2020, 01:08:55 PM
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243

Preparing the list to start legging in overthe next few weeks. My opinion is this wont be a v up and there will be many head fakes.

We have our first USA death today. Once the first child sadly dies, it will be more hysteria. Women at work were talking non stop about it this week with their kids and what to do

Highs for 2020 are already in and wont be seen for 18 months or more.

DISCLAIMER - I could be wrong about everything above. I never time the market so this will be an interesting experiment. Good luck to all. Im in a crowd of 4,000 people now. Wish me luck and good health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on February 29, 2020, 01:57:35 PM
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243
...I never time the market

LOL.

I mean, I have no evidence that you're not right to do it, but at least just own it - you're market timing.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on February 29, 2020, 02:15:25 PM

The S&P 500 is down 12.8% still from the record high.  I think there's quite a bit of downside to this market as it looks for a new bottom.  With the overvaluation of stocks, I wouldn't have been surprised to see a bigger drop than this even without the COVID-19 outbreak, as we did in late 2018.  I appreciate the optimism, but still don't see this as a good time to buy, yet.  But then, I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: LWYRUP on February 29, 2020, 02:39:39 PM
As someone who helps run a food bank, I say, awesome. Buy up those beans and rice! I'll pass them out to folks who really need them later.

-W

If you are talking about America writ large, you're probably right.  But this is the money Mustache website.  I'm going to use all the rice and beans, don't worry.

I prepped extensively throughout the week.  None of it will be wasted.  In fact, since I bought large products with less packing and took fewer trips, it will save money and be better for the environment.

A single ten pound bag of black beans is way better for the environment than buying a bunch of cans, or even worse a bunch of delivery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TempusFugit on February 29, 2020, 03:04:08 PM
I confess that i did buy a bit more at the grocery today than i would normally.  The only thing i noticed any shortage of was hand sanitizer. 

I bought some rice and canned beans which i normally keep on hand in smaller quantities, but now have 3x the usual stock. 

investment wise, i have done nothing.  My allocation is fairly conservative at 65/35 (or it was before last week) so my invested assets are now down about 8%.  Ive got some cash in a money market account but not enough to really take much advantage.  I will be withdrawing some of that to pay uncle sam next month anyway, so i don't really plan to make any moves.  Ill just sit tight and continue to invest on my normal monthly schedule and wait it out.   

Im down six figures so far, which doesn't feel great, but since were all in the same boat, it also isn't too demoralizing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Helvegen on February 29, 2020, 04:21:56 PM
Someone died in my state now of CV and the Governor declared emergency. I cannot stay as fully invested in the stonk market as I am and will be moving a bit out. I also have gold and silver from 2009 I never did anything with, so there is that. I am also a traditional archer that can shoot very well instinctively. My house is full of food and fuel and my neighbors are alright. But again, I have to live in constant state of preparedness anyway due to weather and threats like earthquakes and I think a lot of people in my rural area might also do the same.

If it blows over like I really still think it will, I will suck up my losses, nbd. That's what tax loss harvesting is for (I've already lost LTG money right now in the positions I will be selling). Is what it is. I am doing nothing with my tax advantaged accounts. I am selling a bit just out of my taxable. If I need it, I need it. If not whatever and I will reinvest it.

Edited because I misinterpreted something I read in the article about this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MaybeBabyMustache on February 29, 2020, 04:45:02 PM
I'm in the bay area (very near where the patient of unknown disease origin is) & things were crazy at the local Costco today. They were out of (fresh) chicken, cleaning supplies, and several other items. The parking lot & store were a madhouse, with a 45-60 minute wait. The most I've waited before is 15 minutes, on the day before Thanksgiving, or whatever.

I was also at the local grocery store, Trader Joes, & the produce stand. These are standard weekly errands. We did buy a few more frozen fruit/veggie options than normal, and picked up extra TP, kleenex & a few other non-perishables.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on February 29, 2020, 05:52:17 PM
I am also a traditional archer that can shoot very well instinctively.

This is my favorite post so far.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on February 29, 2020, 11:38:34 PM
It's not panic yet, but there are several quarantines, Costco ran out of many goods. Lines to back of store, massive buying, people loading full pallets on their trucks. Went to cash, not worth losing 70% like I did in .com bubble. This is getting more worrying since death it is local. Costco might be a great stock if you are still bullish, PE is high though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Hotstreak on March 01, 2020, 12:12:39 AM
I'm in the bay area (very near where the patient of unknown disease origin is) & things were crazy at the local Costco today. They were out of (fresh) chicken, cleaning supplies, and several other items. The parking lot & store were a madhouse, with a 45-60 minute wait. The most I've waited before is 15 minutes, on the day before Thanksgiving, or whatever.

I was also at the local grocery store, Trader Joes, & the produce stand. These are standard weekly errands. We did buy a few more frozen fruit/veggie options than normal, and picked up extra TP, kleenex & a few other non-perishables.


Similar situation in Portland today.  A lady is apparently infected, although she had no travel to asia and no close contact with infected persons.  She worked at an elementary school on one side of the town, and is being treated on the other side of town in a small hospital.  The grocery store was sold out of flour, bleach, most cleaning products, rice, and gallon jugs of water.  The shelves were fairly well stripped of other items, but not sold out.  News reports say costco had a 1000 person line at opening, and they are sold out on numerous items too.


It's clearly a panic; whether the panic is warranted remains to be seen.  At this point, I'm mostly worried about running out of staples that are depleted due to the panic buying.  I stocked up last week with this in mind, and everything will be eaten.


For investments, I haven't made any changes yet, and am not due to rebalance for several months.  I have an emergency fund that I'm not putting in the market.  I think everyone needs to take a few deep breaths and do their best to act rationally ... it's easy to be smart when things are going well, being smart when things are turning to shit is a lot harder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 01, 2020, 07:11:56 AM
The Costco I'm Michigan was out of control yesterday.  It's usually busy on the weekend so we went shortly after opening to avoid the crowds, but it was the busiest I've ever seen it.  Similar to the day before Thanksgiving or Christmas, parking lot full and people just driving around looking for spots, lines inside the store were damn near back to the meat department. It was insane. They didn't seem to be out of anything, but I saw lots of people with cases and cases of bottled water, and bags of rice, etc.

We went to Kroger immediately afterwards and that was crazy busy as well.  Not quite as bad as Costco, but ridiculous none the less.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 01, 2020, 07:36:34 AM
So what's the argument for buying big cases of bottled water?

Rice and beans I can sort of understand. If the US tried to replicate the Wuhan lockdown* it might be hard to get new groceries for a while. Even if we don't, if the virus starts spreading broadly in the country, being able to cut down on trips to the grocery store for a few months is probably good both for personal risk of inflection and reduce the overall spread through the population.

But are people genuinely worried water will stop coming out of the tap because of a disease outbreak? By the time that happened, it seems like we'd have bigger problems to worry about than having an adequate supply of bottled water (what with the imminent breakdown of civilization and all).

*I don't know that our government has either the political will or enforcement infrastructure to replicate the level of lockdown China was both willing and able to impose to stop the spread of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 01, 2020, 08:02:46 AM
I don't have the statistics, but I know a lot of people will not (or can't/shouldn't) drink water out of their taps, so they use bottled water, even in good times.  So, it makes sense they might be stocking up just as they would on other groceries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 01, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
So what's the argument for buying big cases of bottled water?

Your water heater has ~50 gallons of nice drinkable water. If you need more than that, yes, it's the zombie apocalypse.

Then again, I don't get people buying bottled water *at all*, ever. Especially the purified stuff - you *want* those minerals!

People aren't starving in freaking *China* where this disease has been happening for 6 weeks now. You think you're going to need a pile of beans and rice (remember, you need a way to cook them...) for some reason?

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 01, 2020, 09:37:28 AM
I don't have the statistics, but I know a lot of people will not (or can't/shouldn't) drink water out of their taps, so they use bottled water, even in good times.  So, it makes sense they might be stocking up just as they would on other groceries.

I may be biased because of where I live, but metro Detroit has some of the best water in the states.  It's perfectly clean and healthy and tastes just fine.  But 90% of the people I know claim they can't drink the tap water.  WTF are you talking about, we all get our water from the exact same source and it's fine to drink and you are an idiot to drink only bottled water.  It's insane the amount of people in this area that refuse to drink tap water for *insert bullshit reason*.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 01, 2020, 09:43:53 AM
The governor of Washington seems to be a pure moron.  A single death of an already health-compromised individual in his state is not worth declaring an emergency especially because he had exactly zero to say about what that means for day-to-day operations. 

Declaring a State of Emergency is a required step for receiving federal $ and support.
Its not about the number of deaths to date, but the potential for severe outcomes.

For perspective, many gulf states will declare a State of Emergency long before a hurricane makes landfall.  It allows the state to spend money, buy supplies, stage personnel.
Occasionally the hurricane take a turn, or becomes downgraded, and the actual emergency is limited to power-outages from a bad storm.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 01, 2020, 10:24:30 AM
The governor of Washington seems to be a pure moron.  A single death of an already health-compromised individual in his state is not worth declaring an emergency especially because he had exactly zero to say about what that means for day-to-day operations. 

Declaring a State of Emergency is a required step for receiving federal $ and support.
Its not about the number of deaths to date, but the potential for severe outcomes.

Also

The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death from covid-19 was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis of the virus from a newly diagnosed patient in Snohomish County closely matched that of a specimen from the first known coronavirus patient in the United States, who traveled from China in January. The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that these cases are linked through community transmission, researchers say, and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 01, 2020, 11:00:52 AM
The governor of Washington seems to be a pure moron.  A single death of an already health-compromised individual in his state is not worth declaring an emergency especially because he had exactly zero to say about what that means for day-to-day operations. 

Declaring a State of Emergency is a required step for receiving federal $ and support.
Its not about the number of deaths to date, but the potential for severe outcomes.

Also

The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death from covid-19 was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis of the virus from a newly diagnosed patient in Snohomish County closely matched that of a specimen from the first known coronavirus patient in the United States, who traveled from China in January. The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that these cases are linked through community transmission, researchers say, and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

Six weeks?  Yikes!  It could certainly spread a long ways in that amount of time with all the asymptomatic and mild case carriers running around.  Of course, it already appears to be spreading in my area as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 01, 2020, 11:08:11 AM
I did note in my post that the purpose was for the access to money.  Inslee should have made it clear that the purpose was to acquire federal funding but instead he let it hang out there for people to make their own false assumptions and clean out the shelves at Costco.   

When everyone reacts by buying guns in the state will he simply shrug and wonder why everyone got all nervous?  And blame the dumb public for being all bitter and clingy-like?  Yep. 

Never let a crisis go to waste, no matter what it does to the public conscious.   

     

You called him an idiot and worse,  clearly connecting this declaration to his idiocy.
IMO hes doing here what is required.  Since theres a definite possibility outbreaks will increase, the sooner its done the faster resources can be deployed.  It is ironicthat governors need to pre-actively declare an emergency, but there are reasons for that (i.e. states rights; a state must request intervention and funds, they cannot be forced onto a state). 

Had he not taken this step he would be considered derelict in his duties if/when additional resources were needed.

Your frustration here seems misplaced - with the system, not the governor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MissNancyPryor on March 01, 2020, 11:42:56 AM
You are probably correct about that.  I get frustrated when things are not clear and this was a prime example of letting things wag around too much during a time that people could use clear instruction.  Unfortunately this particular governor is just as likely to declare the long arc of global warming as an emergency and it muddies the use of the word. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: facepalm on March 01, 2020, 11:49:29 AM
I moved the rest of my bond positions into the stock market.
Yeah, I'll probably do a little of that. Probably go from a 60/40 AA to 65/35.

Live life on the edge. :=)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Raeon on March 01, 2020, 11:57:47 AM
This thread got a derailed a little.  To try and get back on track a bit.

This is all in my play-money taxable account. I did absolutely nothing in my retirement accounts.

I moved 50% back out to cash/gold Monday last week. (oopsed a bit on the gold idea, oh well) I left the other 50% where it lies. I don't mind waiting in those as I also don't want the tax hit on them right now.

Friday I put 10% of that 50% back in. I'm not convinced we've seen the worst of this. Mostly I enlarged my position in BRK.B due to the expectation that they'll finally put some of their $128B in cash reserves to use and it's a reasonably good investment in recessions.  I bought another share of AMZN since more people will be shopping from home and I feel it's nearly reached the point of undervalued this past year.  I also bought some weed stocks. They've gotten crazy low. I expect some more legalization on the way and that always props up their prices a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Steeze on March 01, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
On Friday morning:

Doubled my bi-weekly 401k contribution to $1500 (100% US Stocks)
Cut bi-weekly transfers to my savings account in half
Sold bonds (15.5% down to 14%), traded for US & REITs
Bought 1k each of US/EM/Dev.Int out of savings
Changed weekly auto contributions from 85/15 to 95/5 stocks/bonds

Will look to add to US/EM from cash if markets continue to fall, maybe at -5% increments?
Total stock/bond position is about 220k now.

House is paid off, job is super secure, and have 12 months cash sitting around collecting dust. Would comfortably bring that down to 3-6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 01, 2020, 01:33:53 PM
You are probably correct about that.  I get frustrated when things are not clear and this was a prime example of letting things wag around too much during a time that people could use clear instruction.  Unfortunately this particular governor is just as likely to declare the long arc of global warming as an emergency and it muddies the use of the word.

I do wish that there was another term or declaration that could be used in anticipation, to minimize anxiety and hysterical reactions.  Maybe something like federal response declaration.  Completely neutral. 

I also wish that every media report would explain the move with a simple sentence or two about its purpose and routine nature.  Such as: as expected, the Governor activated the states response protocol, allowing federal resources to aid state agencies.

I agree: STATE OF EMERGENCY sounds really traumatic, particularly when we havent (and possibly might not) actually reach a true state-wide emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Rubyvroom on March 01, 2020, 01:43:10 PM
I had invested $5K each into our two Roth accounts in early January, knowing that I'd want to invest the remaining $2K once I had a stable consulting gig. I have said gig now so I invested the remaining $2K Friday. I considered waiting longer but I know I can't call the bottom.

Because I consult, I keep a larger FU fund on hand (~6 months). I had considered investing the excess cash to take advantage of the fire sale and get me down to ~3 months but decided against it. Again, I can't call the bottom, and in a downturn the consultants tend to be the first to go.

Lastly, I checked my total portfolio asset allocation and it had slipped from 90/10 to 87/13. I have a 5% tolerance threshold so I did nothing. I will keep an eye on things and rebalance as necessary.

I definitely spent more shopping this weekend. I stocked up on some staples and other items that won't go bad. I ordered more pet food. I am keeping the pantry more full than empty, but I'm trying not to panic buy (do I really need this CASE OF PURELL hmmm). The store I went to was definitely under stocked for some items as other people were doing the same, but it didn't feel like a panicked level, like I need to keep an eye on my cart or someone will steal my Tylenol level. I'm stocking up so that if stores get to that level, I can stay home. I do still bus to work and I may drive instead. So my expenses may increase temporarily, and that's fine. I feel fortunate that I have the option to drive rather than bus, as not everyone has that choice.

All of the activity has me wanting to act more on investments. I terror check the news daily like everyone else. But I have been (somewhat surprisingly) sticking to my plan. I haven't had this much skin in the game for a real downturn (very young in 2008) so I wasn't sure if I'd have the stomach for it. So far so good. Now off to wash my hands and study up on tax loss harvesting and avoiding wash sales.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Sultan58 on March 01, 2020, 01:50:15 PM
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16.... I was early and feeling bad...til a week ago-----started legging back into S&P index (Vanguard)  with each successive 1000 point drop this past week.....at fridays close I was back to 48% invested.

Now I'm waiting to see if mr market keeps on giving and drops more before I put anymore in. I think its a bit of a gift, but I figure it'll take a month or two more to get arms around the impact on the market.

Close to retirement so I likely wont get too aggressive from here on out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Malcat on March 01, 2020, 01:56:29 PM
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16.... I was early and feeling bad...til a week ago-----started legging back into S&P index (Vanguard)  with each successive 1000 point drop this past week.....at fridays close I was back to 48% invested.

Now I'm waiting to see if mr market keeps on giving and drops more before I put anymore in. I think its a bit of a gift, but I figure it'll take a month or two more to get arms around the impact on the market.

Close to retirement so I likely wont get too aggressive from here on out.

Are you the one who started a thread about it last year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Villanelle on March 01, 2020, 02:54:49 PM
I've done nothing.

My sister was consolidating account and cashed out something from an old job.  It was a bit of a cluster, with a check lot in the mail, then mot resent when it was supposed to be, and other bureaucratic bumbles.  She still doesn't have the check (which she plans to reinvest immediately) but as it turns out, someone's incompetence save/made her a fair amount of money.  (I believe she said the check was near 6 figures.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Sultan58 on March 01, 2020, 03:50:20 PM
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16.... I was early and feeling bad...til a week ago-----started legging back into S&P index (Vanguard)  with each successive 1000 point drop this past week.....at fridays close I was back to 48% invested.

Now I'm waiting to see if mr market keeps on giving and drops more before I put anymore in. I think its a bit of a gift, but I figure it'll take a month or two more to get arms around the impact on the market.

Close to retirement so I likely wont get too aggressive from here on out.

Are you the one who started a thread about it last year?

nope...dont believe so
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ice_beard on March 01, 2020, 04:16:10 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 01, 2020, 07:02:57 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens.

I was in Costco today as well. There was still TP and since we were almost out, we bought some. Only stuff they were out of was hand sanitizer and that was available at other stores. Saw my first person wearing a mask, but that couldve been because they were sick.

The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 01, 2020, 07:14:17 PM
This seemed like a good opportunity to buy, so I gave myself a few excuses to do so on Friday.  I put an additional $2k in my taxable account into VTSAX.  This will come from checking/savings.  It reduces my EF a little but I know I'll be fine so figured why not.  I've been front-loading my 401k (and then will do mega backdoor) at 50% of my income so haven't been regularly investing into taxable this year.  Unfortunately I got paid last week so nothing going into my 401k this week.  I did take the opportunity to rebalance by exchanging $4k of bonds for stocks in my 401k to get back to 90/10.  Overall, it isn't much, but I have $6k more stocks than I did on Thursday.  I at least felt like I was doing something without taking much risk.  99% of my portfolio is unchanged and I am staying the course.  I realize that stocks may fall much further, but I also know I'm getting at least a 12% discount from last week.

I'm a little surprised at the number of people here talking about selling.  The problem with market timing is that you need to be right twice.  When to get out AND when to get back in.  Stay strong fellow mustachians!  Stay the course!  Pick an asset allocation and stick with it in good times and bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 01, 2020, 07:52:40 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens.

I was in Costco today as well. There was still TP and since we were almost out, we bought some. Only stuff they were out of was hand sanitizer and that was available at other stores. Saw my first person wearing a mask, but that couldve been because they were sick.

The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.

I went to a grocery store and a Super Walmart today.  The shelves were full of hand sanitizer, TP, cold meds, pain killers, soup, beans, anything I wanted, except they were down to 1 bottle of 70% alcohol, but they had quite a few of the 91%.  Since we have a case of COVID-19 in my state a couple hours away that is unrelated to travel exposure, I thought there might be more panic, but things looked calm and normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 01, 2020, 08:12:03 PM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: seattlecyclone on March 01, 2020, 08:21:25 PM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 01, 2020, 09:13:21 PM
Im looking for evidence that the number of new occurrences are decreasing in rate of increase. We are near that tipping point.

If this trend continues, based on prior pandemics, buying trigger should be about 10-14 days from now (Id rate of new occurrences continues to dwindle)

This is not something I usually do, so just doing it as an experiment

Premarket down almost 400. Could be up by market open tomorrow. Shes an emotional thing
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ice_beard on March 01, 2020, 09:38:36 PM
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 01, 2020, 11:40:21 PM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.

My new mantra
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on March 02, 2020, 12:12:33 AM
Nice fed bump incoming in the morning probably. If you want to update allocation to more conservative might be a good time. My guess is they will not be able to keep it up thru the bad news and it will be temporary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: KBecks on March 02, 2020, 05:40:25 AM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens.

I was in Costco today as well. There was still TP and since we were almost out, we bought some. Only stuff they were out of was hand sanitizer and that was available at other stores. Saw my first person wearing a mask, but that couldve been because they were sick.

The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.

For older people and people with weak health, this is a dangerous virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DK on March 02, 2020, 05:45:28 AM
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM

Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TomTX on March 02, 2020, 06:33:54 AM
pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.

Either answer is fine. The spread is enough that it may well be worth going with the 15, but not so much it's OMG GO 15!

What matters more to you? Higher cash flow to invest (30 year) or less interest paid (15 year)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on March 02, 2020, 07:03:01 AM
pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.
Either answer is fine. The spread is enough that it may well be worth going with the 15, but not so much it's OMG GO 15!
What matters more to you? Higher cash flow to invest (30 year) or less interest paid (15 year)?

As Tom said, either is good. In 30 years, we'll be able to tell you which one was the better option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 02, 2020, 10:37:56 AM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.

Almost all of my investments are in retirement accounts so it feels much easier not to touch them. It probably helps that I'm a little disconnected from the world as I'm deployed right now. People aren't aren't exactly discussing the stock market. I remember back in the fall of 2008 when I worked in a regular office and hearing people talking about how the DOW had just dropped 700 points (back when it was in the low teens) in a day.

On paper I've "lost" a couple of month's income in about a week. But when my ~$1,200 401k contribution gets invested today, I'm going to be buying what cost me almost $1,400 two weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: appleshampooid on March 02, 2020, 11:26:19 AM
Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

Even if you were to continue to pay off your mortgage quickly, it still might be beneficial to refinance. My general rule of thumb is that a refi needs to pay for itself in two years.

My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on March 02, 2020, 11:36:14 AM
My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).

Yes, but I hope you shopped around for lenders if you paid $4,500 in closing costs for a refi.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: appleshampooid on March 02, 2020, 12:24:27 PM
My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).

Yes, but I hope you shopped around for lenders if you paid $4,500 in closing costs for a refi.
I did shop around and this compared favorably. $445k balance so large origination fee and paid some points to get down to 2.99%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Helvegen on March 02, 2020, 12:44:49 PM
The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.

I had to go out again shopping and the stores were basically deserted. I guess everyone was out shopping this weekend and then, basically only at Costco. And again at my local Costco, no one was panic buying anything at all. It was busy, but every Saturday or Sunday is a madhouse at Costco. All the stores I went to running errands for our reno project had bleach and whatnot and we are ground zero for the North American problem apparently.

As for the stonk market, I put in my sell order this morning out of my taxable. It turns out that maybe I overestimated my risk tolerance a bit. Good to know, I will now keep a certain cash position from now on. I feel fine with what is left and that is not because the market happens to be doing OK today. I don't care what happens to what I have invested there because now I have a good buffer for me psychologically.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: thesis on March 02, 2020, 01:14:01 PM
I haven't changed anything in my investments. Then again, I keep a decent cash emergency fund. I originally was going to dump my tax return into my investment account, but I'm hesitant to do this because I haven't yet rebuilt my emergency fund to what I prefer (I used part of it to max out my Roth on January 1). Granted, I could still go 8 or 9 months without a job, though without going into too much detail, my current job is likely to earn new clients in the event of a pandemic.

Oooh, that's tough. I could probably dump half of my tax return into VTSAX, given the discount and all. As long as I make it to next paycheck (highly likely), maybe I can dump the whole thing. You can't call the bottom, but you can get a great discount. I really wouldn't mind the recession starting when I'm so early in building my stache, just as long as I and my family can stay employed.

I'm more worried for my parents and grandma. This virus is scary stuff, even if it isn't the end of the world. We've had it pretty soft here in the US, though. And history knows far worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 02, 2020, 01:20:26 PM
My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).

Yes, but I hope you shopped around for lenders if you paid $4,500 in closing costs for a refi.

Whats the best way to shop around?  Do you guys call all the big banks?  Use a website aggregator?  A broker? 

I think I got a good rate on my original loan but its quite stressful the shipping and haggling.  I wanted to get it closed so went with a big bank but at this point Id be willing to try a smaller lender

Pricing seems pretty opaque without a lot of legwork
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 02, 2020, 01:38:47 PM
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

Interestingly enough I was just at Costco picking up standard items for next week and I was really surprised how empty the shelves were of items.

One of the things we needed was toilet paper and they still had some but they were out of paper towels. An employee was standing in that area telling everyone they were out and hoping to get more in this week and also mentioned they were out of rice, flour, Clorox wipes, and a few other things.

Multiple people shopping were wearing masks, gloves and they had someone wiping shopping cart handles down as they were handing them to people.

As I took my stuff out to the car there was a guy loading a pallet of rice and water into a SUV floor to ceiling full.

My most interesting trip to Costco yet

Very much a regional thing I guess.  Was at Costco on Sunday. I bought TP as we were out. Still plenty to be had. Same with rice and flour. Only thing they were out of was hand sanitizer which was available at other stores.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on March 02, 2020, 01:59:07 PM
I think I got a good rate on my original loan but its quite stressful the shipping and haggling.  I wanted to get it closed so went with a big bank but at this point Id be willing to try a smaller lender. Pricing seems pretty opaque without a lot of legwork.

Basically when I got my first mortgage I put in the legwork shopping around. Now, I just use the same guy I went with on the first mortgage (4 loans with him so far). Of course, I still do a quick inquiry with others lenders just to make sure he's staying honest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nburns on March 02, 2020, 02:00:04 PM
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss day.

Did you mean gain?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 02, 2020, 02:08:40 PM
I think I got a good rate on my original loan but its quite stressful the shipping and haggling.  I wanted to get it closed so went with a big bank but at this point Id be willing to try a smaller lender. Pricing seems pretty opaque without a lot of legwork.

Basically when I got my first mortgage I put in the legwork shopping around. Now, I just use the same guy I went with on the first mortgage (4 loans with him so far). Of course, I still do a quick inquiry with others lenders just to make sure he's staying honest.

So this is a broker or a specific officer at a bank?  Or like an independent investor?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Davnasty on March 02, 2020, 02:12:34 PM
I originally was going to dump my tax return into my investment account

I'm not sure your brokerage would process it for you, you should probably send it to the IRS :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 02, 2020, 02:15:46 PM
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss 4-1/2% gain day.

Fixed that for ya!

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on March 02, 2020, 02:17:35 PM
So this is a broker or a specific officer at a bank?  Or like an independent investor?

For the first loan, he was loan officer at a regional bank. For loans 2/3 he was at at national home mortgage originator/servicer, and for loan four he's at a local mortgage lender (not servicer).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: fattest_foot on March 02, 2020, 02:41:26 PM
Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

Yeah, I think we had something like $50-60k in some Roth's in 2008. We're at about 10x that now. But I didn't change anything in 2018, and I certainly didn't this time either.

In fact, I even did some quick math. If I had put all of my TSP (about $160k) in treasuries, and somehow correctly called a 20% drop from top to bottom, I would come out $30k ahead. For the amount of risk and just how unlikely I am to be the world's perfect market timer, the upside didn't really seem worthwhile. Now, granted, if I take a big gamble and do all of our accounts, that "upside" goes into the six figures. But seeing how the drops of last week were met with a 5% increase today, it seems like I probably wouldn't market time this correctly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TheWifeHalf on March 02, 2020, 08:33:40 PM
Converting some tIRA to ROTH.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DK on March 03, 2020, 05:44:23 AM
pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.

Either answer is fine. The spread is enough that it may well be worth going with the 15, but not so much it's OMG GO 15!

What matters more to you? Higher cash flow to invest (30 year) or less interest paid (15 year)?

i apparently caught the end of a 4 hour window where rates dropped even further yesterday, so went with the 30yr since it dropped to 3%. crazy low rate to me...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Joe Schmo on March 03, 2020, 06:44:09 AM
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss 4-1/2% gain day.

Fixed that for ya!
Is that why we dont time the market? Asking for a friend :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on March 03, 2020, 06:50:15 AM
i apparently caught the end of a 4 hour window where rates dropped even further yesterday, so went with the 30yr since it dropped to 3%. crazy low rate to me...

Damn, well done. What's even crazier is that there's only about 1% difference between your loan rate and the interest rates at some FDIC insured banks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: thesis on March 03, 2020, 08:23:08 AM
I originally was going to dump my tax return into my investment account

I'm not sure your brokerage would process it for you, you should probably send it to the IRS :)

=P
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: harvestbook on March 03, 2020, 12:44:09 PM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.

It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I'm not shopping beyond what I already keep on hand for regular doomsdays anyway. My hunch is Covid has been silently spreading for weeks already, and that shoppers are exposing themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 03, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 03, 2020, 03:54:37 PM
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

Yes, which is why I said previously that I wasn't surprised at the drop of 12.8% by Friday's close down from the Feb 19th high close of the S&P 500 and that I expected it to go lower since there was more reason for it than the drop we saw Oct to Dec 2018 of about 20%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 03, 2020, 04:11:22 PM
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

To me its the real world events.  December was just normal market fluctuation unconnected to structural economic issues
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 03, 2020, 06:53:55 PM
Over the weekend I noted that my long term government bonds were approaching their rebalance band once again and put in a long term above-the-market limit order. I started checking that regularly along with the S&P500 to see if Top is in yet (even though I already know it is). Today I was electrified to see the limit order go through. ZROZ at $167.2! I then noticed small value stocks were going through one of the biggest sales in years and put the proceeds there.

In November I moved our taxable accounts to 90% cash (well, Vanguard Ultra Short Bond Index) to buy a house, but the house we wanted sold just before we made an offer. So the cash is still sitting there. The money is still technically earmarked for a near-term house. The stock market has been a real snooze fest recently, but if things ever got exciting I could in theory move that cash into the stock market. And by exciting I mean something like "S&P500 decides to take out the Y2K top, just in time for its 20th anniversary!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 04, 2020, 05:48:07 AM
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

To me its the real world events.  December was just normal market fluctuation unconnected to structural economic issues

Same for me.  Decembers slide seemed divorced from any actual economic news, and even the talking heads were struggling to explain it beyond a natural pullback from recent highs despite strong underlying fundamentals or some other doublespeak.
Coronavirus seems to be having a real, widespread and persistent effect on the global supply chain. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 05, 2020, 09:35:37 PM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

+1 to both of these.  Seeing the market drop 3-5% almost every day last week and the large up-down swings this week has been kind of surreal.  Before, it was quite unusual to get changes of 2% in one day.  In the last 2 weeks, that has been the norm to where I find myself expecting it.  I'm glad I haven't felt any urges to sell yet, but I can understand that a prolonged period of market uncertainty could be mentally taxing and stressful.  Doing my monthly asset calculations and realizing I was down $45k in one month was a little sobering.  If this happens for months on end, I'm sure it will get discouraging.  I hope I can continue to stay the course.  You don't lose money until you sell!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on March 05, 2020, 09:57:47 PM
This is what is great about being an old codger.  The recent pullback is a big yawner.   Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   I cannot emphasize enough what a nothingburger this is.  And by that I mean from an investing standpoint.  Of course the coronavirus is a big deal.   But unexpected events like this happen all the time.  The market is back to what it was, what?  six months ago?  BFD.  Even if it was back to where it was two years ago BFD.  This is exactly what we should expect when investing in the stock market.  This is what we signed up for.  The market will go crazy for a period of time.  Maybe years, I dunno.  And then everything will work out fine. 

Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: matchewed on March 06, 2020, 04:37:42 AM
Yeah seriously, for all y'all watching the market with baited breath worried about wanting to do something reactive take this moment to stop and revise your IPS. Then when you have done that without staring at a market index chart then adjust it appropriately. The people who come out on top keep emotions out of this game.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 06, 2020, 05:16:44 AM
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

Yes, which is why I said previously that I wasn't surprised at the drop of 12.8% by Friday's close down from the Feb 19th high close of the S&P 500 and that I expected it to go lower since there was more reason for it than the drop we saw Oct to Dec 2018 of about 20%.

This is serious.  Things are looking worse since that post a few days ago.  I haven't see anything to make me change my expectations that the market is going to keep dropping and will likely send us into a recession with a slow recovery.  The bull market was fun while it lasted.   I'm staying put with my AA, which means I'm going to need to rebalance at times as stocks continue to drop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: bigblock440 on March 06, 2020, 05:55:34 AM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

+1 to both of these.  Seeing the market drop 3-5% almost every day last week and the large up-down swings this week has been kind of surreal.  Before, it was quite unusual to get changes of 2% in one day.  In the last 2 weeks, that has been the norm to where I find myself expecting it.  I'm glad I haven't felt any urges to sell yet, but I can understand that a prolonged period of market uncertainty could be mentally taxing and stressful.  Doing my monthly asset calculations and realizing I was down $45k in one month was a little sobering.  If this happens for months on end, I'm sure it will get discouraging.  I hope I can continue to stay the course.  You don't lose money until you sell!

I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now." 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on March 06, 2020, 06:11:09 AM
I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

People sell because they think things are going to get worse and can't stomach the loses. Sometimes, they're right. In hindsight, a person who sold after the market dropped 20% in 2007-2008 was right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Getmeouttahere on March 06, 2020, 06:25:19 AM
How were they right if the market eventually gained? Are you assuming they shorted their investments and bought in at a lower rate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: appleshampooid on March 06, 2020, 06:34:52 AM
This is what is great about being an old codger.  The recent pullback is a big yawner.   Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   I cannot emphasize enough what a nothingburger this is.  And by that I mean from an investing standpoint.  Of course the coronavirus is a big deal.   But unexpected events like this happen all the time.  The market is back to what it was, what?  six months ago?  BFD.  Even if it was back to where it was two years ago BFD.  This is exactly what we should expect when investing in the stock market.  This is what we signed up for.  The market will go crazy for a period of time.  Maybe years, I dunno.  And then everything will work out fine. 

Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.
Yep, and if the market weren't volatile like this, there would be no risk premium because everyone would be in it. I think. Maybe I need more coffee.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on March 06, 2020, 08:15:54 AM
TMF up 16% today... INSANE. Gold, Guns, and Treasuries! Put a little in SQQQ on those major spike days and that has paid off each time as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 06, 2020, 10:13:19 AM
Holy shit snacks! I was pretty proud of myself for selling long term government bonds at a freak intraday all-time high for $167 earlier in the week. This morning they rose 9%, above $180! At this rate I will be rebalancing again soon, I may want to set the band higher since I have already rebalanced twice since August.

TMF up 16% today... INSANE.
Cute to look at, but I would choose EDV or ZROZ if I actually wanted to own something like this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 06, 2020, 12:46:26 PM
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

+1 to both of these.  Seeing the market drop 3-5% almost every day last week and the large up-down swings this week has been kind of surreal.  Before, it was quite unusual to get changes of 2% in one day.  In the last 2 weeks, that has been the norm to where I find myself expecting it.  I'm glad I haven't felt any urges to sell yet, but I can understand that a prolonged period of market uncertainty could be mentally taxing and stressful.  Doing my monthly asset calculations and realizing I was down $45k in one month was a little sobering.  If this happens for months on end, I'm sure it will get discouraging.  I hope I can continue to stay the course.  You don't lose money until you sell!

I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

Agreed.  That's where I'm at right now too.  But I'm sure it's a lot harder to think logically about it after seeing your investments get battered for months on end and losing years of hard-earned savings and constantly hearing media or coworkers freaking out about the crash.  My first instinct last week was also to buy more, which I did.  I'm happy we're down again today since I get paid today and will have around $2k going into investments.  I'm just saying that after seeing all the craziness of the last 2 weeks, I can definitely understand why it gets harder to stay the course and ignore the noise in periods of market uncertainty and long downward trends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 06, 2020, 12:56:00 PM
I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

People sell because they think things are going to get worse and can't stomach the loses. Sometimes, they're right. In hindsight, a person who sold after the market dropped 20% in 2007-2008 was right.
They'd only be right if they knew when to get back in.  That's always the problem.  You need to be right twice, and the chances of that are quite low.  After dropping 20%, it could have rebounded right back up like it did at the end of 2018.  Or it could drop another 20%.  There's a reason market timing gets a bad rap.  It's super hard to get it right.  Sometimes the best and simplest action is to do nothing.  It's not always easy to do that when the world around you is freaking out.  But choosing an asset allocation that fits your risk tolerance and sticking to it in good times and bad is the quickest way to FI, IMO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Ricochet on March 06, 2020, 01:41:17 PM
This is what is great about being an old codger.  The recent pullback is a big yawner.   Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   I cannot emphasize enough what a nothingburger this is.  And by that I mean from an investing standpoint.  Of course the coronavirus is a big deal.   But unexpected events like this happen all the time.  The market is back to what it was, what?  six months ago?  BFD.  Even if it was back to where it was two years ago BFD.  This is exactly what we should expect when investing in the stock market.  This is what we signed up for.  The market will go crazy for a period of time.  Maybe years, I dunno.  And then everything will work out fine. 

Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.
I'll drink to that. Cheers, and time will heal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 06, 2020, 02:41:56 PM
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 06, 2020, 02:57:16 PM
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

You're on for bragging rights. Hmmm.  I'll take a little longer.  A good panic needs some time.  April 2nd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 06, 2020, 04:41:18 PM
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

You're on for bragging rights. Hmmm.  I'll take a little longer.  A good panic needs some time.  April 2nd.

I was about to say March 24th is way too early, but I think it will continue to trend down well beyond April 2nd, although there will be volatility along the way until it finds a new bottom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 06, 2020, 06:06:30 PM
June 1 will be the bottom. You heard it here first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
Post by: Steeze on March 06, 2020, 06:36:00 PM
I want to play!

July 1st - sp500 2750

I drew lines on a chart for 15 minutes to figure that out.

Edit: 2750 from 2825.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 06, 2020, 07:17:11 PM
OOH OOH! March 24 @ 1,552.87!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 06, 2020, 10:16:20 PM
OOH OOH! March 24 @ 1,552.87!

1552.87 ... wowsa that would suck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 06, 2020, 10:49:56 PM
OOH OOH! March 24 @ 1,552.87!

1552.87 ... wowsa that would suck.
That's the S&P500 tech bubble top. And 20th anniversary :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TomTX on March 07, 2020, 12:24:40 PM
I don't understand the urge to sell when your stocks are worth less.  Granted, I'm still in accumulation, but I don't look at the numbers and think "gee, some of my shares are worth less than I bought them for, I think I better sell them and make sure I lose money even though I don't need it right now".  What I have been thinking is "great, my shares cost what they did last year when I didn't have cash to buy more, I get to make up for that missed buying opportunity now."

People sell because they think things are going to get worse and can't stomach the loses. Sometimes, they're right. In hindsight, a person who sold after the market dropped 20% in 2007-2008 was right.

Well, they were right if they bought back in while the market was lower. Many people who pulled out just stayed out and missed the runup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 07, 2020, 01:34:03 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 07, 2020, 01:53:08 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 07, 2020, 07:47:51 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

I've found that when 100% of finance journalists and internet people agree that ONLY THIS ONE THING CAN HAPPEN, the only thing that cannot possibly happen is that one thing.

See you all March 24th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 07, 2020, 07:54:36 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

I've found that when 100% of finance journalists and internet people agree that ONLY THIS ONE THING CAN HAPPEN, the only thing that cannot possibly happen is that one thing.

See you all March 24th.

You been watching whats up with oil? Monday morning will be Very Interesting indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 07, 2020, 08:11:44 PM
Pretty much every market open for the last two weeks has become "very interesting."

At this point, either we'll see a big swing up or down, which will be very interesting. Or we'll see no movement, which will be very surprising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 07, 2020, 10:07:29 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

An efficient market would have this priced in already.  You can only gain an advantage if you knew how bad it will get before everyone else.

In this case, through we know earnings will take a hit, nobody knows how long the problem will last.  I wonder what kind of hit is priced in and how your gut feeling on how bad it will be compared to that pricing.

Curious if we see bumped earnings due to ridiculous stockpiling of consumer goods.  It seems to me that many people are moving planned purchases forward in time
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TomTX on March 08, 2020, 08:12:54 AM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

An efficient market would have this priced in already.  You can only gain an advantage if you knew how bad it will get before everyone else.

In this case, through we know earnings will take a hit, nobody knows how long the problem will last.  I wonder what kind of hit is priced in and how your gut feeling on how bad it will be compared to that pricing.

Curious if we see bumped earnings due to ridiculous stockpiling of consumer goods.  It seems to me that many people are moving planned purchases forward in time

Personally, I think it's not priced in appropriately yet. I'm also joining the "Monday will be interesting" crowd ;)

I expect at least a 30% drop from the high in most major stock indices. That said, I haven't sold anything - on the flip side, I'm dawdling a bit with putting in the cash which is being freed up from some nice bank account signup bonuses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 08, 2020, 09:07:28 AM

Personally, I think it's not priced in appropriately yet. I'm also joining the "Monday will be interesting" crowd ;)

I expect at least a 30% drop from the high in most major stock indices. That said, I haven't sold anything - on the flip side, I'm dawdling a bit with putting in the cash which is being freed up from some nice bank account signup bonuses.

Hmm. Yeah, 30-40%+ sounds about right.  Depends on the country and sector. The US market was already very pricey.  It still has lots of room to drop. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 08, 2020, 09:12:46 AM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.

I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: jojoguy on March 08, 2020, 09:21:36 AM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 08, 2020, 10:12:05 AM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.

Oil is another factor, and I think the big story of the weekend.  Russia refused to agree to reduce production with OPEC on Friday and Saudi Arabia has drastically cut oil prices and is preparing to significantly increase supply.  An oil price war is on. Great for countries that are net consumers, not so good for  net exporters like the US. All this at a time when oil demand is dropping.

We're living in Interesting Times. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 08, 2020, 10:27:30 AM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.

OTOH, I could see China rushing a vaccine through trials and into mass production much much faster than we can manage in the USA. I wouldn't be all that surprised if poor factory workers in China end up vaccinated against this new virus before affluent middle class people in the US are vaccinated.

Keep in mind that China, while keeping hundreds of millions of people locked down, has ramped coronavirus testing to the point where they are now testing more than 200,000 people a day.

Here in the US, with just as much warning, and without the handicap of widespread lockdowns and quarantines messing with our economy and supply chains, the CDC botched developing our own test (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615323/why-the-cdc-botched-its-coronavirus-testing/). In the past week it appears we managed a grant total of less than 1,600 tests, barely 200 people tested per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 08, 2020, 10:40:22 AM

Personally, I think it's not priced in appropriately yet. I'm also joining the "Monday will be interesting" crowd ;)

I expect at least a 30% drop from the high in most major stock indices. That said, I haven't sold anything - on the flip side, I'm dawdling a bit with putting in the cash which is being freed up from some nice bank account signup bonuses.

Hmm. Yeah, 30-40%+ sounds about right.  Depends on the country and sector. The US market was already very pricey.  It still has lots of room to drop.

40% might be even worse than my pessimistic view on this, but I wouldn't be surprised.

A 30% drop in the S&P 500 from the Feb 19'th closing high would take us about to where the index bottomed out on Dec 24, 2018 at 2351, which was about a 20% drop from Sept 2018.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: NVDee on March 08, 2020, 10:45:18 AM
We have done nothing, except stopped looking at our accounts.  Occasionally looking at the index charts on the phone, but will wait until the valley is level with the Top again before I log on again.

This does bring a conundrum because our IPS has us transferring our annually accumulated higher cost funds from employers Sunlife to lower cost Vanguard now, but the volatility tells me to hold on selling.  Transfer in in kind isn't an option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BikeLover on March 08, 2020, 10:56:00 AM
Many persons are over-reacting by excessive hoarding of various items. I assume quite a few stock owners will also over-react, selling stocks or holding off from buying them. I don't see any particularly plausible reason to assume big investment firms or very wealthy stock owners are underrating the seriousness of the risk. So, I assume that all in all the market has already priced in, or even exaggerated the risk; it's a good time to buy, at least for those investing for the long term.

There are a number of possible developments that on the other or severally could mitigate the severity of the issue caused by the disease. It might spread a lot less in the summer, as influenza does. A vaccine might be mass produced in the coming months. Or testing might be made very simple, thus making containment much easier.

On the last point, I'm surprised that the test discovered by a biotech company in Salzburg hasn't been more in the news, that gives results in half an hour!

https://shop.procomcure.com/produkt/phoenixdx-2019-ncov-rna-detection-kit/
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 08, 2020, 11:50:31 AM
I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??
Unless you get in after it's already gone back up.  That's where you have to be right the 2nd time.  At what point are you deciding to get back in?  After a 10% drop? 20%?  Let's say you sell and stocks go down 5%.  Yay, you were right once!  Do you buy back in now?  Or do you wait for another 5% because surely it must go lower, right?  Let's say you decide to wait and it never gets to 10% down but instead goes back up to where it was when you sold it.  Do you buy back in now (for no net gain but at least no loss from where you started) or continue to wait because there's no way the markets continue to march up for the next 6 months?  Well, then it's possible that markets DO go up for the next 6 months and you're still on the sidelines missing any gains.  That's why market timing is so dangerous.  Even though you were "right" to sell before the first loss, you're now out of the market because you were "wrong" about when to get back in.  In general, the stock market goes up.  So by keeping money out of the stock market, you're more likely to miss out on gains than you are to save yourself from losses.

I've been hearing for the last 5 years at least that the market is overpriced and there's no way it can continue going up.  Well, I'm glad I ignored that noise as it's made me a ton of money.  This time may seem scarier as there's a global pandemic associated with it, but I think the same principles apply.  Just because no one thinks it can possibly go up right now doesn't mean it can't.  I plan to just keep buying whether it goes up or down.  Either I get to buy more shares or my shares are worth more.  Eventually this will just be a blip on the radar and I'll be glad I stayed the course.  Or I'm wrong and the entire economy collapses.  But in that case, I'm probably screwed no matter what I decide to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Davnasty on March 08, 2020, 03:10:01 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.

I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??

So why not take advantage of this opportunity?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: meghan88 on March 08, 2020, 03:50:55 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be

^This will probably effect things longer. That`s even if a vaccine becomes available soon. I`m sure the last people to get ahold of the vaccine will be the destitute workers in China. The elite government will make sure they get their own vaccinations first before anybody else.

Oil is another factor, and I think the big story of the weekend.  Russia refused to agree to reduce production with OPEC on Friday and Saudi Arabia has drastically cut oil prices and is preparing to significantly increase supply.  An oil price war is on. Great for countries that are net consumers, not so good for  net exporters like the US. All this at a time when oil demand is dropping.

We're living in Interesting Times.

I agree re. oil.  Interesting Times, indeed.  This will definitely knock a few oil companies out of the market.  And it will present a good opportunity for those with strong stomachs who can place a couple of speculative bets on the eventual survivors who've hedged appropriately or have other means to wait it out.  Oil (despite all its ills, and the advent of green tech) is not going anywhere any time soon, unless all planes stop flying, or until all plastics are replaced with something else.  And I am all for green tech, but I imagine it takes time and a whole lot of $ to retrofit facilities to change to an alternate fuel.

Our Canadian petro-dollar is on a race to the bottom, as usual, when stuff like this happens.  Less than three weeks ago, the Euro was worth 1.43 $Cdn; now it's worth 1.53 $Cdn and it aint done yet.  In the meantime, U.S. tech companies are ramping up recruiting in Canada, and they will reap the results in lower operating costs, so maybe that will help the growing tech industry here.

More cynically (and for a general comment on where we're headed ecologically), there's this article from the Irish Times:  https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-covid-19-has-come-to-tell-us-that-we-are-not-the-kings-of-the-world-1.4192749.  Main message:  there are limits to human control of the world.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 08, 2020, 03:53:31 PM
It seems like such a sure bet that the market goes down for a while considering how disruptive CV has been to most all industries.... not to mention how F'd up the supply chain from China is going to be.  I am really starting to think that I might sideline my investments for a bit... it seems so obvious.  And I am super anti Markey timing, this just seems like the time to time it.

Until it peters out and the economy returns to normal and the stock market shoots up 15% while you're on the sidelines.


Stay the course. Not only do you have to be right on exiting the market, you also have to be right on getting back in. There's a lot of people who sold near the bottom and didn't get back in for a couple of years - locking in their losses and then missing a bunch of growth.

I know people like to say this, but the way I see it you dont have to be "right twice ", you need to be right once and then any time you get back in after being right is still a net gain.  There could definitely be better times to get back in, I realize that, but it's really not this impossible task of being right twice as people like to make it sound.

I'm still not actually planning on doing this, I'm pretty happy with my current investments (20% bonds), but it sees like the opportunity to avoid a 20% drop with my investments sidelined is way more of a reward than it is a risk.  Does anyone really expect the markets to march up for the next 6 months??

So why not take advantage of this opportunity?

I am thinking I might have to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: mjones1234 on March 08, 2020, 05:13:03 PM
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago. But it was only because I started thinking about Warren B and the cash he's been amassing. I thought "who am I to think I'm wiser than Warren?". When he begins buying, I'll do the same, but months later as I won't know until after the shareholder meeting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 08, 2020, 09:17:40 PM
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago. But it was only because I started thinking about Warren B and the cash he's been amassing. I thought "who am I to think I'm wiser than Warren?". When he begins buying, I'll do the same, but months later as I won't know until after the shareholder meeting.
The data I see online is $128 billion in cash, with a $500 billion market cap.  I assume he's been buying now, given the current crisis.. but still, call that 25% cash for one of the world's top investors.  Not all cash.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 08, 2020, 09:44:40 PM
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago. But it was only because I started thinking about Warren B and the cash he's been amassing. I thought "who am I to think I'm wiser than Warren?". When he begins buying, I'll do the same, but months later as I won't know until after the shareholder meeting.

I'd love to see Buffett's reaction if you told him your interpretation... he has opined before about what normal investors should be doing, regardless of market conditions. And it's not to sit on a pile of cash.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 08, 2020, 09:49:49 PM
Earlier in this thread I predicted ~5 days in advance when China would hit 10,000 cases and cause a media panic.  I assumed existing cases would grow at a similar rate, and that the media likes big round numbers.  It looks like another country has cases doubling every ~4 days, roughly... but some days America reports no new cases.  It's hard to see the pattern when some days cases jump +70% and others +0%.

My theory is that the U.S. media is hesitating in the face of uncertainty, and will sound the alarm at ~1000 cases in the U.S.  Some Americans are stockpiling, others are attending large events.  Looking at WHO data for March, the best fit I have for the data is +20% per day.  Plotting that out, I estimate ~1000 cases by next Monday or Tuesday (March 16-17).

The virus could spread rapidly, and the U.S. has much higher production of test kits now.  So maybe my estimate is too slow, and ~1000 cases will occur sooner.  I have trouble coming up with a case where the spread stops quickly.... several states have confirmed cases, there's no quarantine measures in place, and production of test kits are lagging.

For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on March 08, 2020, 09:53:07 PM
Here in the US, with just as much warning, and without the handicap of widespread lockdowns and quarantines messing with our economy and supply chains, the CDC botched developing our own test (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615323/why-the-cdc-botched-its-coronavirus-testing/). In the past week it appears we managed a grant total of less than 1,600 tests, barely 200 people tested per day.

It is worse than that.  We had the option of using the existing WHO test while developing our own, but rejected the WHO test because it wasn't invented here.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on March 08, 2020, 09:54:23 PM
For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.

I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases two days from now:  March 8. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 08, 2020, 10:09:24 PM
Stocks are going to open down a bit on Monday since futures are already down -5%. That and oil is dropping like a rock.

I'm not paying for gas right now so no benefit there. Though my state's budget is heavily dependent on oil (NM is the third largest oil producer now). Of course with the windfall of cash from higher prices and production all sorts of new spending was just added to the budget that was signed a few weeks ago.

On Friday when my next 401k investment is made I suspect I'll be picking up a few more shares than I did two weeks earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 08, 2020, 10:35:14 PM
For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.

I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases two days from now:  March 8.

That would be March 10, but we could already be there.  There's no way to know when the tests haven't been done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 09, 2020, 03:09:02 AM
For my investments, I might move 0-2% from equities to bonds - a very tiny fraction.  Or, I might just wait, and after the news hits, increase my equity allocation.  In any event, I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases by a week from now, March 16-17.
I'm predicting 1,000 U.S. cases two days from now:  March 8.
In New York, it's 5 am on March 9 right now.  But I think 48 hours from now, your prediction will be closer than mine.

I just read the following in the sidebar of a BBC article: "Number of United States cases exceeds 500", and then found it in a CNBC article:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-live-updates-grand-princess-to-disembark-passengers.html

Keep in mind for markets, it's when the news hits that matters.  If the U.S. has 1,000 cases now, but nobody knows about it, that's great inside information - but it doesn't impact markets.  As soon as that information becomes available, it will impact markets.  So it's "when the news shows 1,000 cases" rather than when the U.S. hits 1,000 cases without knowing it.

The U.S. just jumped from 200 cases to 500 cases... and I had to search to find that information?  That reinforces my theory: cases are growing very rapidly in the U.S., and the media aren't focused on the U.S. impact as yet (I could be wrong about that, at any moment).

The -5% drop in S&P 500 futures suggests the market is aware of the problem.  But I think it's worse than expected, and the panic at 1,000 may be followed by further panic.  It could be another long week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 09, 2020, 06:24:40 AM
The -5% drop in S&P 500 futures suggests the market is aware of the problem.  But I think it's worse than expected, and the panic at 1,000 may be followed by further panic.  It could be another long week.

That -5% is determined by trading limits on stock market index futures contracts. So there could be a bit more awareness/concern/panic baked in to people's expectations than we're seeing from the futures.

My best guess is that the S&P 500 opens down 6-7%, comparable to european and australian markets, worse than asian markets.

But of course if I was any good at predicting what the stock market would do, I'd be doing that, not watching from my kitchen table over breakfast.

Edit: Opened at -6.7%. Hit -7% in the first six minutes of trading.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 09, 2020, 07:36:50 AM
7% circuit breaker has been tripped!  Market is currently paused.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 09, 2020, 07:39:10 AM
Wow! I think this may be the first time we've ever actually hit a circuit breaker. (In fairness the 7% and 13% breakers are less than a decade old, so that's not quite as exciting as it sounds.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 09, 2020, 08:22:50 AM
Fall, baby, fall!!!

My NW is down 6.5% from its February peak compared to the markets 17.5%, and Im about to hit the strike prices of my protective puts so loses slow from here (I watched those long puts and short calls bleed value all 2019 but held my AA). Lets hope for a bottom 30% below here. Could be a retirement-in-one-move situation a year or two from now, like going all-in in 2009.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 09, 2020, 08:49:11 AM
In mid-February my 401k allocation bought ~10.5 shares of S&P500 index, on the 28th it was 12 shares, so by this Friday it will probably be 13-14 shares. It's nice getting all these stocks on sale - especially buying them with tax-free income for my Roth 401k while I'm deployed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 09, 2020, 09:05:17 AM
My prediction of 1,000 U.S. cases by next Mon/Tues seems quaint now that the U.S. has over 500 COVID-19 cases.  The question is what comes next, and I spent a few hours thinking about it.  I decided to move some equities into bonds, and await the next panic.  I expect there will be an additional panic at 10,000 U.S. cases of COVID-19.

The U.S. market is down -5.4% so far today, with international down -5.7%.  I actually submitted limit orders that triggered at the market open (it worked!), but wound up selling at 1.3% lower than current prices.  Selling ETF gives me a credit, which I then used to buy a long-term treasury ETF and gold.  That ETF was up +10% when I bought, and is up +7% now, so I paid about +3.5% more than current prices.  Similarly, gold is slightly down, and I paid +0.6% more there.  So combine those two, and it's about +3.1% higher cost for buying early, compared to current market prices.

Essentially I'm predicting the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases of corona virus and trigger another panic.  But I expect some time before or after that, I'll see a repeat of Friday Feb 28th where the market is 100% in panic mode.  I plan to reverse half my trades on each of those panics.  Time to wait and see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 09, 2020, 09:25:37 AM
Wow! I think this may be the first time we've ever actually hit a circuit breaker. (In fairness the 7% and 13% breakers are less than a decade old, so that's not quite as exciting as it sounds.)

I was looking at a CNBC article and at a 7% drop, this still doesn't break into the top 20 one-day S&P 500 drops. Most of those were from the 1930s or 2008, plus the huge drop in 1987 - over 20%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: use2betrix on March 09, 2020, 09:31:46 AM
Still have my auto-deposit of $4k twice a month into VTSAX, however I dumped an extra $10k in today, in addition to another $10k into a major oil and gas company that I work for.

Ive transferred over another $20k from my checking acct into my money market acct to continue with these drops.

I typically keep a 2 year FU fund, but am find bumping it to 1 year in this scenario. Once the markets climb back up, I can hold off on my automatic deposits and other savings and replenish the years worth of living expenses in about 4 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 09, 2020, 09:38:06 AM
Still have my auto-deposit of $4k twice a month into VTSAX, however I dumped an extra $10k in today, in addition to another $10k into a major oil and gas company that I work for.

Ive transferred over another $20k from my checking acct into my money market acct to continue with these drops.

I typically keep a 2 year FU fund, but am find bumping it to 1 year in this scenario. Once the markets climb back up, I can hold off on my automatic deposits and other savings and replenish the years worth of living expenses in about 4 months.

Hey use2betrix, are you going to be okay at work?

Normally I'm all for reducing the size of efunds to put more money into the market. Since you're working in the oil and gas sector just want to make sure your position isn't likely to be impacted by WTI Crude dropping 17% or so today (when I went to sleep it was closer to 30% down, but it looks like it has made up some of the losses today) and/or the type of work you do for the company could also be done for companies in other sectors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: fattest_foot on March 09, 2020, 09:41:11 AM
Here in the US, with just as much warning, and without the handicap of widespread lockdowns and quarantines messing with our economy and supply chains, the CDC botched developing our own test (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615323/why-the-cdc-botched-its-coronavirus-testing/). In the past week it appears we managed a grant total of less than 1,600 tests, barely 200 people tested per day.

It is worse than that.  We had the option of using the existing WHO test while developing our own, but rejected the WHO test because it wasn't invented here.

Not sure where you read that, but the CDC began developing their test before the WHO did. It's just that it went poorly so they didn't field it until they got it fixed. We could have dropped the CDC development and gone with the WHO one, but that bureaucracy for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: fattest_foot on March 09, 2020, 09:42:24 AM
Here in the US, with just as much warning, and without the handicap of widespread lockdowns and quarantines messing with our economy and supply chains, the CDC botched developing our own test (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615323/why-the-cdc-botched-its-coronavirus-testing/). In the past week it appears we managed a grant total of less than 1,600 tests, barely 200 people tested per day.

It is worse than that.  We had the option of using the existing WHO test while developing our own, but rejected the WHO test because it wasn't invented here.

Not sure where you read that, but the CDC began developing their test before the WHO did. It's just that it went poorly so they didn't field it until they got it fixed. We could have dropped the CDC development and gone with the WHO one, but that's bureaucracy for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Queen Frugal on March 09, 2020, 10:17:48 AM
About a year ago I invested $7k in LGLV (large cap low volatility fund) in my brokerage account with money ear marked for some rather short term purposes. Then it made a really nice profit and I didn't want to sell it until the gains became long term after a year. I made a deal with myself months ago that I would hang on to it until either a year passed, I lost the gains, or I needed the money. So rather than trying to time the market I sold it this morning as Friday my total gains were down to $55.

I got my trade in just before the 7% pause hit. Maybe that was minute 5. Ha! And lost 4.5% total. The loss is not a big deal - and I am still glad I kept to my promise to myself. But wow does that make me see with a lot more clarity just how hard it is to time the market and how you could drive yourself crazy with it.

All of my other investments have at least a decade to recover and I don't have any urge to sell. I am confident this too shall pass.  I would love to be buying right now but it's not on my normal schedule so I'll hold off for now.

Investment policy statements are a really good thing.

And on to nuttier news... maybe this is completely irrational, but I am taking enough cash out of my bank today to pay a month's worth of normal expenses. That might be ridiculous but I'm doing it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: use2betrix on March 09, 2020, 11:16:32 AM
Still have my auto-deposit of $4k twice a month into VTSAX, however I dumped an extra $10k in today, in addition to another $10k into a major oil and gas company that I work for.

Ive transferred over another $20k from my checking acct into my money market acct to continue with these drops.

I typically keep a 2 year FU fund, but am find bumping it to 1 year in this scenario. Once the markets climb back up, I can hold off on my automatic deposits and other savings and replenish the years worth of living expenses in about 4 months.

Hey use2betrix, are you going to be okay at work?

Normally I'm all for reducing the size of efunds to put more money into the market. Since you're working in the oil and gas sector just want to make sure your position isn't likely to be impacted by WTI Crude dropping 17% or so today (when I went to sleep it was closer to 30% down, but it looks like it has made up some of the losses today) and/or the type of work you do for the company could also be done for companies in other sectors.

Im a contractor, so theres always some volatility. That being said, I am over new construction projects and my current projects are slated to last another 15 months, so I should be at least good until then. I stand out pretty heavily on our project team (I have been given two huge raises since I started about 20 months ago, along with more vacation, most recently just last week) so I will likely be towards the end of a layoff list, if that did happen.

Even if I did get laid off now, or in 15 months, Id be fine with whatever. The wife and I are more than ready for a long sabbatical at any given moment! Well always keep a years worth of living expenses, just in case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 09, 2020, 01:36:46 PM
Happy to hear it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 09, 2020, 03:48:51 PM
Circuit breaker tripped, 7% plus drop at the close, VIX hits 62.

It wasan interesting day!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 09, 2020, 04:07:56 PM
Yawn. Another week, another $1500 unceremoniously deposited into the market.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 09, 2020, 07:25:44 PM
Last week I scraped up the spare change in my Fidelity account and put in a limit order for a few shares, about $370 worth or something. So pretty life changing. Looks like that filled today...

Put in more limit orders to sell ZROZ, since it was both insane and over my rebalance band. But that didn't go through, hopefully it will have a chance this week.

But so far this has not been that big of a deal. If the crash recovers now before losing 20%, it will go down in history as "second worst crisis in the S&P500 in the 18 months ending April 2020." Yawn.

I am actually feeling a little depressed because I think it will be a V correction with the low today, and a quick recovery. I would really like a chance to buy on the cheap, but in my investing since 2015 every correction has been lightning fast and I do not think I have bought more than 10% below an all time high as a result of the spacing of my monthly or (as of last year) biweekly deposits. Most of my money went in last Monday and Tuesday, now nothing until next Tuesday... Unless this correction grows, the 2015 start year might be shaping up to be the worst starting sequence since 1995! (btw I did not do any investigation for this paragraph, so my statements could be wrong.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 09, 2020, 09:17:01 PM
... I am actually feeling a little depressed because I think it will be a V correction with the low today, and a quick recovery. I would really like a chance to buy on the cheap, but in my investing since 2015 every correction has been lightning fast ...
Feeling a little depressed might fit the circumstances, but not over the markets.  The U.S. has an outbreak that already numbers 700+ cases (according to CNN 2 hours ago), showing it's out of control.  With months to prepare, the U.S. waited until very recently to produce and deliver test kits.  Maybe that's why the "Wu Han Organization" (WHO) data is not believable, with zero new U.S. cases from Mar 7-9, while the U.S. stock market drops -8% over fears of U.S. outbreaks.

My current thesis might help with your market-driven mood.  I predict the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases, and that will trigger another panic.  Look at what happened in China after 500 cases... they went all the way to 80k cases today.  And in Italy there's over 7k cases, same in South Korea.  What I see is an early period of denial, while the virus spreads without testing.  That's followed by test kits, and a massive growth rate in new cases - they are actually being detected.  Finally, the virus grows quickly despite testing, and you get China/Italy/South Korea.  I don't see any reason to view the U.S. as especially different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BicycleB on March 09, 2020, 09:34:05 PM
Sold big huge - ah, er, effectively $2k of bonds. And bought the same of stock.

I don't really have an Investment Policy Statement. More of an Investment Policy Opinion that floats in my brain. Basically, it's "keep the house, rent out rooms, keep the financial assets around 70% stock 30% bonds until I get around to diversifying the non-stock financial assets better. Rebalance quarterly to annually if needed." Then I do nothing whatsoever, except for sell financial assets when I need spending money for the next couple of months. Do as I say, not as I do!

I "decided" this sophisticated policy a while back. My stock portion at the time was in the 60s as best I could tell. By early February, over 70%. The pullback dropped stock to just a tiny bit under target.

Rather impulsively, I decided that NOW is the time to rebalance. That's when I realized just how to close to 70% I am (I think). Hence the satisfyingly tiny amount of rebalancing.

To tidy up some details, I placed the order tonight to sell $10k of VASGX (which is 20% bonds, 80% global stock) and buy $10k VTWAX (100% global stock). That's my big "FIREd guy dodges coronavirus" move.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 09, 2020, 10:15:09 PM
I don't really have an Investment Policy Statement. More of an Investment Policy Opinion that floats in my brain.
Ha. That's kind of how I am.  I at least wrote down an asset allocation a few years back that I loosely try and stick to.  I usually only rebalance with new funds, but I did sell a bit of bonds recently to buy stocks in this downturn.  I'm currently 90/10 and I'm sort of considering going down to more like 5% bonds so I can buy stocks at discount now.  Maybe this is why I really should have an IPS...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 09, 2020, 10:23:50 PM
... I am actually feeling a little depressed because I think it will be a V correction with the low today, and a quick recovery. I would really like a chance to buy on the cheap, but in my investing since 2015 every correction has been lightning fast ...
Feeling a little depressed might fit the circumstances, but not over the markets.  The U.S. has an outbreak that already numbers 700+ cases (according to CNN 2 hours ago), showing it's out of control.  With months to prepare, the U.S. waited until very recently to produce and deliver test kits.  Maybe that's why the "Wu Han Organization" (WHO) data is not believable, with zero new U.S. cases from Mar 7-9, while the U.S. stock market drops -8% over fears of U.S. outbreaks.

My current thesis might help with your market-driven mood.  I predict the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases, and that will trigger another panic.  Look at what happened in China after 500 cases... they went all the way to 80k cases today.  And in Italy there's over 7k cases, same in South Korea.  What I see is an early period of denial, while the virus spreads without testing.  That's followed by test kits, and a massive growth rate in new cases - they are actually being detected.  Finally, the virus grows quickly despite testing, and you get China/Italy/South Korea.  I don't see any reason to view the U.S. as especially different.
Yeah, that is a little selfish of me to say that. I need to adjust my thinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ender on March 10, 2020, 06:04:45 AM
Feeling a little depressed might fit the circumstances, but not over the markets.  The U.S. has an outbreak that already numbers 700+ cases (according to CNN 2 hours ago), showing it's out of control.  With months to prepare, the U.S. waited until very recently to produce and deliver test kits.  Maybe that's why the "Wu Han Organization" (WHO) data is not believable, with zero new U.S. cases from Mar 7-9, while the U.S. stock market drops -8% over fears of U.S. outbreaks.

Markets got hammered because of the oil games Russia and Saudi Arabia are playing, not Corona.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 10, 2020, 06:22:45 AM
Feeling a little depressed might fit the circumstances, but not over the markets.  The U.S. has an outbreak that already numbers 700+ cases (according to CNN 2 hours ago), showing it's out of control.  With months to prepare, the U.S. waited until very recently to produce and deliver test kits.  Maybe that's why the "Wu Han Organization" (WHO) data is not believable, with zero new U.S. cases from Mar 7-9, while the U.S. stock market drops -8% over fears of U.S. outbreaks.

Markets got hammered because of the oil games Russia and Saudi Arabia are playing, not Corona.

Are we sure?  Im not.  For certain the oil market bled into (and possibly drove) the sell off, but were also learning just how extensive a disruption all the efforts to slow down COVID-19 will have on the economy.  By at least one estimate the US airline industry will lose $20B this quarter. I think the cruise-ship industry could suffer for years. Apple and Samsung have both released downward revisions citing supply-chain disruptions, and the world bank estimates that the US economy will grow at just 0.9% this quarter, and predicts it will be flat (0.0%) next quarter.  A few months ago the predictions were for 2.5% growth, so this is a huge downgrade

All of this came out over the weekend, and it all suggests a very real global slowdown.

My read is that oil supply just threw gasoline (pun intended) onto some already uncertain and pessimistic outlooks. And the markets hate uncertainty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2020, 07:28:40 AM
Feeling a little depressed might fit the circumstances, but not over the markets.  The U.S. has an outbreak that already numbers 700+ cases (according to CNN 2 hours ago), showing it's out of control.  With months to prepare, the U.S. waited until very recently to produce and deliver test kits.  Maybe that's why the "Wu Han Organization" (WHO) data is not believable, with zero new U.S. cases from Mar 7-9, while the U.S. stock market drops -8% over fears of U.S. outbreaks.

Markets got hammered because of the oil games Russia and Saudi Arabia are playing, not Corona.
As the stock market dropped -7% in the first minutes of trading, oil company stocks were down about -30%.
Today the markets are going to open +3% higher, with oil company stocks up about +30%.

Let's say you scale that to make them equivalent: +4.3% equals +43% (1 x .7 * 1.43 = 1).
Looks to me like oil isn't the whole story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2020, 07:31:10 AM
The -5% drop in S&P 500 futures suggests the market is aware of the problem.  But I think it's worse than expected, and the panic at 1,000 may be followed by further panic.  It could be another long week.

That -5% is determined by trading limits on stock market index futures contracts. So there could be a bit more awareness/concern/panic baked in to people's expectations than we're seeing from the futures.

My best guess is that the S&P 500 opens down 6-7%, comparable to european and australian markets, worse than asian markets.

But of course if I was any good at predicting what the stock market would do, I'd be doing that, not watching from my kitchen table over breakfast.

Edit: Opened at -6.7%. Hit -7% in the first six minutes of trading.
I missed this earlier, but yes, that's exactly right.  Apparently when futures markets trade more than -5% or +5%, trading is halted for a time.  That happened right before the stock market opened, and left everyone with "-5% or more" drop, which turned out to be just under a -7% drop.  A few minutes into trading, it hit -7% and stock market trading was halted for 15 minutes to let people cool off and revise their plans.

Today the market is opening a few percent higher, but still down for the week so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 10, 2020, 07:39:47 AM
It's almost like no one has any idea and trying to predict and time the market is futile?

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 10, 2020, 07:53:04 AM
It's almost like no one has any idea and trying to predict and time the market is futile?
Shhhhh....  You're going to make a lot of financial-types look silly and pointless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2020, 08:20:08 AM
It's almost like no one has any idea and trying to predict and time the market is futile?
Earlier this year, I assumed Iran would attack the U.S., and send oil higher.  Then Iran accidentally shot down a civilian airplane, and suddenly nobody cared about a lone drone strike on Sulemani.  I was wrong to predict global events.

Yesterday I couldn't separate COVID-19 from oil prices - it looks like both were factors in the -8% price drop.  Per the paragraph above, I can't predict oil.  I just let it be.

For COVID-19, I've watched it play out in the same way repeatedly.  China shut down an entire province, and Beijing was deserted.  Italy is on lock down now.  In both cases, people stop shopping and stop working.  It's a double economic hit to both consumption and production.  So if it hits the U.S. hard, the impact should be much greater than just -5%.

Look at the U.S. situation: 700+ cases, rising quickly.  Let me quote the CDC:
"Its likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html#anchor_1582494216224

I understand people are hopeful and think the U.S. is different.  But the data paints a different picture, as does the CDC.  That's why I think a roughly -5% market drop (-8% +3%) is too small to represent what happens next with COVID-19.

If I'm wrong, the stock markets will be fine through March 20.  Nothing will happen for the next 10 days.
If I'm right, a new panic will occur and it will be time to buy stocks on sale.  I'll probably buy too early - which is fine.  My goal is just to prove the markets under-estimated the crisis, and I got it right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 10, 2020, 08:22:39 AM
It's almost like no one has any idea and trying to predict and time the market is futile?
Shhhhh....  You're going to make a lot of financial-types look silly and pointless.

And people in this thread.  Definitely some great predictions in this thread that have been on point, and makes me think "this guy knows what he's talking about and is predicting market moves!", but then I think of the hundreds of other threads of people dropping predictions that were well thought out and made logical sense and the market just did whatever it wanted.  You don't have to be a genius to be able to see that coronavirus might have some negative economic impact...but as far as predicting which way the market will move over any given time period, it still seems like the market is just doing what it wants and it's not possible to predict it accurately.

The market at all times:
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcQkuc1DXUYy04ledpRv-uTfPBsInJMzBdad2HJpj2Cp4VZ_kmII)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 10, 2020, 08:27:50 AM
I feel like we need a mantra:

"I cannot predict what the markets will do on any particular week, and that is ok.  If I stay the course in time I shall be rewarded"
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 10, 2020, 08:35:32 AM
It's almost like no one has any idea and trying to predict and time the market is futile?
Earlier this year, I assumed Iran would attack the U.S., and send oil higher.  Then Iran accidentally shot down a civilian airplane, and suddenly nobody cared about a lone drone strike on Sulemani.  I was wrong to predict global events.

Yesterday I couldn't separate COVID-19 from oil prices - it looks like both were factors in the -8% price drop.  Per the paragraph above, I can't predict oil.  I just let it be.

For COVID-19, I've watched it play out in the same way repeatedly.  China shut down an entire province, and Beijing was deserted.  Italy is on lock down now.  In both cases, people stop shopping and stop working.  It's a double economic hit to both consumption and production.  So if it hits the U.S. hard, the impact should be much greater than just -5%.

Look at the U.S. situation: 700+ cases, rising quickly.  Let me quote the CDC:
"Its likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html#anchor_1582494216224

I understand people are hopeful and think the U.S. is different.  But the data paints a different picture, as does the CDC.  That's why I think a roughly -5% market drop (-8% +3%) is too small to represent what happens next with COVID-19.

If I'm wrong, the stock markets will be fine through March 20.  Nothing will happen for the next 10 days.
If I'm right, a new panic will occur and it will be time to buy stocks on sale.  I'll probably buy too early - which is fine.  My goal is just to prove the markets under-estimated the crisis, and I got it right.

I would just caution that you might be deluding yourself if you think you can accurately predict any of these things.  I mean we all know coronavirus is going to impact the world economically, and also the usa.  Everyone knows that.  But as far as predicting which direction and magnitude the market will swing...what gives you better insight than literally the entire market?  Everyone in the world has the same information you do and yet stock prices are where they are.  Some most people are idiots, but there are a shit ton of people way smarter than you or me that are being factored into the current price.

You may be right, or you may be wrong.  Those are pretty much the only 2 options.  I've already seen this play out dozens of times just on this forum though.  Each time was a "this time it's different" and some huge factor that was going to majorly impact the stock market.  Almost everyone of those threads seems ridiculous in retrospect as the market kept marching onward and upward.  Is this the beginning of a recession? Is this just a minor dip that will be recovered in the next 2 weeks? 2 months? 2 years?

I have no idea.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DadJokes on March 10, 2020, 08:41:32 AM
Earlier this year, I assumed Iran would attack the U.S., and send oil higher.  Then Iran accidentally shot down a civilian airplane, and suddenly nobody cared about a lone drone strike on Sulemani.  I was wrong to predict global events.

Yesterday I couldn't separate COVID-19 from oil prices - it looks like both were factors in the -8% price drop.  Per the paragraph above, I can't predict oil.  I just let it be.

For COVID-19, I've watched it play out in the same way repeatedly.  China shut down an entire province, and Beijing was deserted.  Italy is on lock down now.  In both cases, people stop shopping and stop working.  It's a double economic hit to both consumption and production.  So if it hits the U.S. hard, the impact should be much greater than just -5%.

Look at the U.S. situation: 700+ cases, rising quickly.  Let me quote the CDC:
"Its likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html#anchor_1582494216224

I understand people are hopeful and think the U.S. is different.  But the data paints a different picture, as does the CDC.  That's why I think a roughly -5% market drop (-8% +3%) is too small to represent what happens next with COVID-19.

If I'm wrong, the stock markets will be fine through March 20.  Nothing will happen for the next 10 days.
If I'm right, a new panic will occur and it will be time to buy stocks on sale.  I'll probably buy too early - which is fine.  My goal is just to prove the markets under-estimated the crisis, and I got it right.

In the first two paragraphs, you admit to failings at market prediction. You then spend the rest of your post attempting to predict the market.

A vaccine could be formulated tomorrow, and the market could recover overnight as a result of the news. Or a dozen other things could happen. We just don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Davnasty on March 10, 2020, 10:05:25 AM
I understand people are hopeful and think the U.S. is different.  But the data paints a different picture, as does the CDC.  That's why I think a roughly -5% market drop (-8% +3%) is too small to represent what happens next with COVID-19.

If I'm wrong, the stock markets will be fine through March 20.  Nothing will happen for the next 10 days.
If I'm right, a new panic will occur and it will be time to buy stocks on sale.  I'll probably buy too early - which is fine.  My goal is just to prove the markets under-estimated the crisis, and I got it right.

You're looking at this as if all you need to do is predict the direction of the economy, but really what you're trying to do is predict how millions of semi rational human brains with varying levels of intelligence will consume and process the available information and how their collective choices will impact the market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2020, 10:08:45 AM
I deliberately mentioned my failings above, to give a more balanced view.  If all you saw was me predicting 10,000 cases in China before the media & markets caught on, you might think I can predict all kind of things.

From this past weekend to now, I dropped from 73% equities to 64% equities.  Which is kinda like being 6/7ths in favor of staying the course, and 1/7th in favor of predicting a market panic in the next ~10 days.  My portfolio will mostly be hurt if my prediction is accurate.

Drugs and vaccines must go through testing - there is no chance the U.S. starts using a vaccine tomorrow.  Maybe you're thinking of remdesivir, which is really far along: it is starting a small human trial, with the eventual goal of an experiment with hundreds of volunteers.  Why would a drug company take the risk to break laws to skip required testing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 10, 2020, 10:18:03 AM
I deliberately mentioned my failings above, to give a more balanced view.  If all you saw was me predicting 10,000 cases in China before the media & markets caught on, you might think I can predict all kind of things.

From this past weekend to now, I dropped from 73% equities to 64% equities.  Which is kinda like being 6/7ths in favor of staying the course, and 1/7th in favor of predicting a market panic in the next ~10 days.  My portfolio will mostly be hurt if my prediction is accurate.

Drugs and vaccines must go through testing - there is no chance the U.S. starts using a vaccine tomorrow.  Maybe you're thinking of remdesivir, which is really far along: it is starting a small human trial, with the eventual goal of an experiment with hundreds of volunteers.  Why would a drug company take the risk to break laws to skip required testing?

I could see the President permitting the fast tracking of a vaccine.  I'm not sure if he could do this with an executive order or what it would take, but I could very easily see him try that... obviously there would be some criticizing that, but he's going to get criticized for everything he does by half the population...  just like Obama before him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2020, 10:19:40 AM
I understand people are hopeful and think the U.S. is different.
...
If I'm right, a new panic will occur and it will be time to buy stocks on sale.
You're looking at this as if all you need to do is predict the direction of the economy, but really what you're trying to do is predict how millions of semi rational human brains with varying levels of intelligence will consume and process the available information and how their collective choices will impact the market.
The coronavirus can spread very quickly when nobody reacts to it.  So if people and markets completely ignore it, the situation actually gets worse.  People over 80 have about a 1 in 7 chance of dying, based on China's data.  That's well over 50x more deadly than the flu.  There is some level of people getting infected where it simply can't be ignored.

The other choice is to react - people avoid contact with each other.  That means large events canceled - sporting events with zero tickets sold.  People staying away from work, and from stores.  That very reaction to avoid the illness will also impact markets.

So people do nothing, and make it worse later... or people avoid contact with each other, which causes significant impacts to the economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2020, 10:26:23 AM
...
Drugs and vaccines must go through testing - there is no chance the U.S. starts using a vaccine tomorrow.  Maybe you're thinking of remdesivir, which is really far along: it is starting a small human trial, with the eventual goal of an experiment with hundreds of volunteers.  Why would a drug company take the risk to break laws to skip required testing?
I could see the President permitting the fast tracking of a vaccine.  I'm not sure if he could do this with an executive order or what it would take, but I could very easily see him try that... obviously there would be some criticizing that, but he's going to get criticized for everything he does by half the population...  just like Obama before him.
To be clear, you're saying skip the 5 person trial and 400 person trial, and directly experiment on thousands of Americans who may not even be sick?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DadJokes on March 10, 2020, 10:32:47 AM
I deliberately mentioned my failings above, to give a more balanced view.  If all you saw was me predicting 10,000 cases in China before the media & markets caught on, you might think I can predict all kind of things.

From this past weekend to now, I dropped from 73% equities to 64% equities.  Which is kinda like being 6/7ths in favor of staying the course, and 1/7th in favor of predicting a market panic in the next ~10 days.  My portfolio will mostly be hurt if my prediction is accurate.

Drugs and vaccines must go through testing - there is no chance the U.S. starts using a vaccine tomorrow.  Maybe you're thinking of remdesivir, which is really far along: it is starting a small human trial, with the eventual goal of an experiment with hundreds of volunteers.  Why would a drug company take the risk to break laws to skip required testing?

I didn't say anything about a vaccine being used. All it would take is the news that a viable one is ready for testing for the markets to potentially recover.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 10, 2020, 10:38:41 AM
...
Drugs and vaccines must go through testing - there is no chance the U.S. starts using a vaccine tomorrow.  Maybe you're thinking of remdesivir, which is really far along: it is starting a small human trial, with the eventual goal of an experiment with hundreds of volunteers.  Why would a drug company take the risk to break laws to skip required testing?
I could see the President permitting the fast tracking of a vaccine.  I'm not sure if he could do this with an executive order or what it would take, but I could very easily see him try that... obviously there would be some criticizing that, but he's going to get criticized for everything he does by half the population...  just like Obama before him.
To be clear, you're saying skip the 5 person trial and 400 person trial, and directly experiment on thousands of Americans who may not even be sick?

Well is the Corona virus a big deal, or not?  I'm not saying I agree with it, it's just something that I could see happening and I've heard it floated in at least one podcast.  Could it could even be disguised in a "right to try" law, where-in you are allowed to try an untested vaccine, or a vaccine that is approved overseas but not in the US, under your own risk?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: bigblock440 on March 10, 2020, 11:29:28 AM
I deliberately mentioned my failings above, to give a more balanced view.  If all you saw was me predicting 10,000 cases in China before the media & markets caught on, you might think I can predict all kind of things.

From this past weekend to now, I dropped from 73% equities to 64% equities.  Which is kinda like being 6/7ths in favor of staying the course, and 1/7th in favor of predicting a market panic in the next ~10 days.  My portfolio will mostly be hurt if my prediction is accurate.

Drugs and vaccines must go through testing - there is no chance the U.S. starts using a vaccine tomorrow.  Maybe you're thinking of remdesivir, which is really far along: it is starting a small human trial, with the eventual goal of an experiment with hundreds of volunteers.  Why would a drug company take the risk to break laws to skip required testing?

I could see the President permitting the fast tracking of a vaccine.  I'm not sure if he could do this with an executive order or what it would take, but I could very easily see him try that... obviously there would be some criticizing that, but he's going to get criticized for everything he does by half the population...  just like Obama before him.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm assuming there's no law outlining the approval process, it's a regulation put in place by unelected bureaucrats placed by the executive branch.  That being the case, no reason they can't be waived solely with an executive branch decision.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on March 10, 2020, 11:35:20 AM
Well is the Corona virus a big deal, or not?  I'm not saying I agree with it, it's just something that I could see happening and I've heard it floated in at least one podcast.  Could it could even be disguised in a "right to try" law, where-in you are allowed to try an untested vaccine, or a vaccine that is approved overseas but not in the US, under your own risk?

Our current laws already hold drug companies harmless from side effects of vaccines.  The reason is vaccines are a low margin business and drug companies would not be particularly interested otherwise. 

You can't fast track vaccines.  By their nature, you can't know if a vaccine actually works until you run clinical trials and analyze the data.   You cannot speed up the clock with the clinical trials.  They simply take a certain amount of time.  FWIW, clinical trials have already started in this country and other countries.  If you want to volunteer for the trials I'm sure they will hook you right up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 10, 2020, 11:41:14 AM

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm assuming there's no law outlining the approval process, it's a regulation put in place by unelected bureaucrats placed by the executive branch.  That being the case, no reason they can't be waived solely with an executive branch decision.

Actually it is codified law, the Drug Approval Pathway (see 505(b)1-2).  There's a bunch of different pathways but the short version is, it's the law, passed by congress and enforced by congressional mandate by the FDA. 

perhaps the WH would get creative and use some emergency powers to suspend the normal process, but it's perhaps equally likely that a majority of legislatures would band together if this really gets bad to pass a special COVID-19 act which could provide additional funding, pave a pathway for fast-tracking vsaccine(s) and do any of another number of stuff (e.g. allow for forced quarantines?)_

fast-tracking a vaccine is incredibly risky, as it may be ineffective or (far worse) wind up somehow killing, injuring, or leaving vulnerable more people than it saves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 10, 2020, 11:46:48 AM
Well is the Corona virus a big deal, or not?  I'm not saying I agree with it, it's just something that I could see happening and I've heard it floated in at least one podcast.  Could it could even be disguised in a "right to try" law, where-in you are allowed to try an untested vaccine, or a vaccine that is approved overseas but not in the US, under your own risk?

Our current laws already hold drug companies harmless from side effects of vaccines.  The reason is vaccines are a low margin business and drug companies would not be particularly interested otherwise. 

You can't fast track vaccines.  By their nature, you can't know if a vaccine actually works until you run clinical trials and analyze the data.   You cannot speed up the clock with the clinical trials.  They simply take a certain amount of time.  FWIW, clinical trials have already started in this country and other countries.  If you want to volunteer for the trials I'm sure they will hook you right up.

So correct me if I'm wrong, but I have often heard people say regarding the flu vaccine every year, "getting the flu vaccine is dumb because they are just guessing which strain(s) are going to be around that given year and they may not even work because they are targeting the wrong thing".  I still get the flu shot, even if it doesn't work, don't you?  Wouldn't this also kind of be the case for a potential CV vaccine, "well we are not sure if it's going to work effectively, but it's our best guess and we think it could save the lives of millions"? 

I could totally see the President trying to be the hero and claiming to fast track a vaccine, even if "fast tracking" means you don't know if it's going to be 100% effective or not.  I can especially see him doing it so that he backs up the claims that many have called ridiculous about how soon he thinks we could see a vaccine.  I think he's had it in his mind that he'll be able to make some executive orders on the matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on March 10, 2020, 11:51:38 AM
I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm assuming there's no law outlining the approval process, it's a regulation put in place by unelected bureaucrats placed by the executive branch.  That being the case, no reason they can't be waived solely with an executive branch decision.

I'm too lazy to look it up as well, but the way this usually works is Congress writes a law-Call it the "Vaccine Safety Law"--that defines what a safe vaccine is, and then gives FDA the authority to ensure vaccines meet the standards as applied by Congress (if that makes sense).    That's really broad brush, but this is why you hear about EPA always getting sued over everything.  People claim EPA isn't following the rules as stated by Congress and sue in order to enforce compliance (or what they believe is compliance).   Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. 

There might be some red tape to cut around the edges, but FDA can't stray too far from the process.   However, I don't think we want them too.  The 737 Max debacle was caused in part by trying to cut red tape at FAA.   Turns out they cut a little too much.   I would much prefer a safe and effective vaccine over something that got rushed out the door in order to temporarily calm markets. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Raymond Reddington on March 10, 2020, 12:00:31 PM
Holding, reinvesting dividends, and adding 1K month to 457. Adding small amounts to various other investments here and there. Still think there's more pain to come. Oil & Gas debt and ripples through the financial system of likely defaults will be more of a medium term impact than the virus. Likewise, new GAAP rules that require unrealized gains and losses to roll into earnings may cause another round of selling when companies declare Q1 earnings and the GAAP number underwhelms. The smart money will focus on non-GAAP net income. Companies' share buybacks may act as a circuit breaker, but I don't think this is the worst of it so just continuing to add out of cash flow...not digging into reserves yet as that reeks of market timing. I think this is a leg down, but there is more to come. Depending on corporate earnings, this will either be a very short, steep blip (like end of 2018), or it will be the start of something much longer. Either way, there will be time to get back in before new highs. So best to dollar cost average in, as always.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 10, 2020, 12:01:18 PM
Well is the Corona virus a big deal, or not?  I'm not saying I agree with it, it's just something that I could see happening and I've heard it floated in at least one podcast.  Could it could even be disguised in a "right to try" law, where-in you are allowed to try an untested vaccine, or a vaccine that is approved overseas but not in the US, under your own risk?

Our current laws already hold drug companies harmless from side effects of vaccines.  The reason is vaccines are a low margin business and drug companies would not be particularly interested otherwise. 

You can't fast track vaccines.  By their nature, you can't know if a vaccine actually works until you run clinical trials and analyze the data.   You cannot speed up the clock with the clinical trials.  They simply take a certain amount of time.  FWIW, clinical trials have already started in this country and other countries.  If you want to volunteer for the trials I'm sure they will hook you right up.

So correct me if I'm wrong, but I have often heard people say regarding the flu vaccine every year, "getting the flu vaccine is dumb because they are just guessing which strain(s) are going to be around that given year and they may not even work because they are targeting the wrong thing".  I still get the flu shot, even if it doesn't work, don't you?  Wouldn't this also kind of be the case for a potential CV vaccine, "well we are not sure if it's going to work effectively, but it's our best guess and we think it could save the lives of millions"? 

I could totally see the President trying to be the hero and claiming to fast track a vaccine, even if "fast tracking" means you don't know if it's going to be 100% effective or not.  I can especially see him doing it so that he backs up the claims that many have called ridiculous about how soon he thinks we could see a vaccine.  I think he's had it in his mind that he'll be able to make some executive orders on the matter.

I know some people that get a bit irritated when what they do is described as 'just guessing'.  Its true they don't always catch the dominant strain(s), but they put a hell of a lot of effort, statistics and computing power to maximize their predictive power.  Kind of like how meteorologists aren't 'just guessing' what the weather will be like..  Sometimes they are off, but more than often it's at least partially right.

Anyway, there's a difference in the flu when it  shot vs stage III vaccine testing.  By the time the flu vaccine comes around we know which strains it is targeted at preventing and roughly how effective they are at generating limited immunity.  For reasons still largely unknown, the human body largely 'forgets' how to fight RNA viruses like the flu, which is why the same strain can circle around years later and whallop you even if you were previously vaccinated for that exact strain.  In constrast, stage III (safety) and stage IV (in a broader population) trails are still looking to see if there are unknown, unexpected interactions.  It might be effective at stopping COVID-19 but could make you way more succeptible to an autoimmune response which might be more deadly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on March 10, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
I could totally see the President trying to be the hero and claiming to fast track a vaccine, even if "fast tracking" means you don't know if it's going to be 100% effective or not.  I can especially see him doing it so that he backs up the claims that many have called ridiculous about how soon he thinks we could see a vaccine.  I think he's had it in his mind that he'll be able to make some executive orders on the matter.

I think you're right.  He's stated at least three times that a vaccine is months to a year away, including twice after being corrected by his own public health officials and drug company execs.   He apparently thinks you can speed up the process if you throw money at the problem or something, or wants the public to think that.

This makes me more nervous, not less.  Our government should be focused on sober, calm analysis of this problem, not engaging in wishful thinking.  This lack of focus at the top is disturbing to me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 10, 2020, 12:15:43 PM
Well is the Corona virus a big deal, or not?  I'm not saying I agree with it, it's just something that I could see happening and I've heard it floated in at least one podcast.  Could it could even be disguised in a "right to try" law, where-in you are allowed to try an untested vaccine, or a vaccine that is approved overseas but not in the US, under your own risk?

Our current laws already hold drug companies harmless from side effects of vaccines.  The reason is vaccines are a low margin business and drug companies would not be particularly interested otherwise. 

You can't fast track vaccines.  By their nature, you can't know if a vaccine actually works until you run clinical trials and analyze the data.   You cannot speed up the clock with the clinical trials.  They simply take a certain amount of time.  FWIW, clinical trials have already started in this country and other countries.  If you want to volunteer for the trials I'm sure they will hook you right up.

So correct me if I'm wrong, but I have often heard people say regarding the flu vaccine every year, "getting the flu vaccine is dumb because they are just guessing which strain(s) are going to be around that given year and they may not even work because they are targeting the wrong thing".  I still get the flu shot, even if it doesn't work, don't you?  Wouldn't this also kind of be the case for a potential CV vaccine, "well we are not sure if it's going to work effectively, but it's our best guess and we think it could save the lives of millions"? 

I could totally see the President trying to be the hero and claiming to fast track a vaccine, even if "fast tracking" means you don't know if it's going to be 100% effective or not.  I can especially see him doing it so that he backs up the claims that many have called ridiculous about how soon he thinks we could see a vaccine.  I think he's had it in his mind that he'll be able to make some executive orders on the matter.

I know some people that get a bit irritated when what they do is described as 'just guessing'.  Its true they don't always catch the dominant strain(s), but they put a hell of a lot of effort, statistics and computing power to maximize their predictive power.  Kind of like how meteorologists aren't 'just guessing' what the weather will be like..  Sometimes they are off, but more than often it's at least partially right.

Anyway, there's a difference in the flu when it  shot vs stage III vaccine testing.  By the time the flu vaccine comes around we know which strains it is targeted at preventing and roughly how effective they are at generating limited immunity.  For reasons still largely unknown, the human body largely 'forgets' how to fight RNA viruses like the flu, which is why the same strain can circle around years later and whallop you even if you were previously vaccinated for that exact strain.  In constrast, stage III (safety) and stage IV (in a broader population) trails are still looking to see if there are unknown, unexpected interactions.  It might be effective at stopping COVID-19 but could make you way more succeptible to an autoimmune response which might be more deadly.

My point was that Telecaster says "You can't fast track vaccines.  By their nature, you can't know if a vaccine actually works until you run clinical trials and analyze the data.", but if that's the case the flu shot by their nature not exist because you don't know for certain how effective that vaccine will be?  Maybe I am making a bad comparison... I don't know?  Do they know that all of the base "ingredients" of the flu vaccine are safe and they just put their best predictive power into the special sauce for the upcoming season?  If this is really as bad as they say it's going to be, 40+% of the US population with 3% death rate, at what point does the risk of a ineffective vaccine outweigh the potential reward of saving millions?  Would it make any difference if it was proposed as a "right to try"?

Obviously, I don't know what I'm talking about, but I do know that this is something I could very easily seeing the POTUS doing...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: bigblock440 on March 10, 2020, 12:37:07 PM

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm assuming there's no law outlining the approval process, it's a regulation put in place by unelected bureaucrats placed by the executive branch.  That being the case, no reason they can't be waived solely with an executive branch decision.

Actually it is codified law, the Drug Approval Pathway (see 505(b)1-2).  There's a bunch of different pathways but the short version is, it's the law, passed by congress and enforced by congressional mandate by the FDA. 

perhaps the WH would get creative and use some emergency powers to suspend the normal process, but it's perhaps equally likely that a majority of legislatures would band together if this really gets bad to pass a special COVID-19 act which could provide additional funding, pave a pathway for fast-tracking vsaccine(s) and do any of another number of stuff (e.g. allow for forced quarantines?)_

fast-tracking a vaccine is incredibly risky, as it may be ineffective or (far worse) wind up somehow killing, injuring, or leaving vulnerable more people than it saves.

Proving what they say about assuming. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Davnasty on March 10, 2020, 12:42:31 PM
Well is the Corona virus a big deal, or not?  I'm not saying I agree with it, it's just something that I could see happening and I've heard it floated in at least one podcast.  Could it could even be disguised in a "right to try" law, where-in you are allowed to try an untested vaccine, or a vaccine that is approved overseas but not in the US, under your own risk?

Our current laws already hold drug companies harmless from side effects of vaccines.  The reason is vaccines are a low margin business and drug companies would not be particularly interested otherwise. 

You can't fast track vaccines.  By their nature, you can't know if a vaccine actually works until you run clinical trials and analyze the data.   You cannot speed up the clock with the clinical trials.  They simply take a certain amount of time.  FWIW, clinical trials have already started in this country and other countries.  If you want to volunteer for the trials I'm sure they will hook you right up.

So correct me if I'm wrong, but I have often heard people say regarding the flu vaccine every year, "getting the flu vaccine is dumb because they are just guessing which strain(s) are going to be around that given year and they may not even work because they are targeting the wrong thing".  I still get the flu shot, even if it doesn't work, don't you?  Wouldn't this also kind of be the case for a potential CV vaccine, "well we are not sure if it's going to work effectively, but it's our best guess and we think it could save the lives of millions"? 

I could totally see the President trying to be the hero and claiming to fast track a vaccine, even if "fast tracking" means you don't know if it's going to be 100% effective or not.  I can especially see him doing it so that he backs up the claims that many have called ridiculous about how soon he thinks we could see a vaccine.  I think he's had it in his mind that he'll be able to make some executive orders on the matter.

I know some people that get a bit irritated when what they do is described as 'just guessing'.  Its true they don't always catch the dominant strain(s), but they put a hell of a lot of effort, statistics and computing power to maximize their predictive power.  Kind of like how meteorologists aren't 'just guessing' what the weather will be like..  Sometimes they are off, but more than often it's at least partially right.

Anyway, there's a difference in the flu when it  shot vs stage III vaccine testing.  By the time the flu vaccine comes around we know which strains it is targeted at preventing and roughly how effective they are at generating limited immunity.  For reasons still largely unknown, the human body largely 'forgets' how to fight RNA viruses like the flu, which is why the same strain can circle around years later and whallop you even if you were previously vaccinated for that exact strain.  In constrast, stage III (safety) and stage IV (in a broader population) trails are still looking to see if there are unknown, unexpected interactions.  It might be effective at stopping COVID-19 but could make you way more succeptible to an autoimmune response which might be more deadly.

My point was that Telecaster says "You can't fast track vaccines.  By their nature, you can't know if a vaccine actually works until you run clinical trials and analyze the data.", but if that's the case the flu shot by their nature not exist because you don't know for certain how effective that vaccine will be?  Maybe I am making a bad comparison... I don't know?  Do they know that all of the base "ingredients" of the flu vaccine are safe and they just put their best predictive power into the special sauce for the upcoming season?  If this is really as bad as they say it's going to be, 40+% of the US population with 3% death rate, at what point does the risk of a ineffective vaccine outweigh the potential reward of saving millions?  Would it make any difference if it was proposed as a "right to try"?

Obviously, I don't know what I'm talking about, but I do know that this is something I could very easily seeing the POTUS doing...

I think the difference is that we know the flu vaccine has been tested to confirm it is effective against specific strains of virus and that it is safe. The unknown is what the most prevalent strains of flu will be for the upcoming season.

In the case of covid-19 we know exactly what virus we want to protect against, but we do not know if the vaccine will be effective or safe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: fattest_foot on March 10, 2020, 04:18:00 PM
So correct me if I'm wrong, but I have often heard people say regarding the flu vaccine every year, "getting the flu vaccine is dumb because they are just guessing which strain(s) are going to be around that given year and they may not even work because they are targeting the wrong thing".  I still get the flu shot, even if it doesn't work, don't you?

Uh, no, because I'm not in a group prone to major complications from the flu (those being the very young and very old, or those with compromised immune systems). Similarly, I don't interact with the at risk groups often enough to warrant getting a flu vaccine.

By the same logic, I'm not even remotely worried about coronavirus, because for me personally and those I interact with, it's not a big deal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 10, 2020, 04:47:44 PM
So long as your insurance covers vaccinations, Im not sure there is any level of social contact where it is not warranted to get a flu shot. Maybe true recluses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 10, 2020, 06:54:23 PM
Uh, no, because I'm not in a group prone to major complications from the flu (those being the very young and very old, or those with compromised immune systems). Similarly, I don't interact with the at risk groups often enough to warrant getting a flu vaccine.

By the same logic, I'm not even remotely worried about coronavirus, because for me personally and those I interact with, it's not a big deal.

Spoken like someone who has never had the flu, and/or is so young and naive they think they're indestructible. Or just doesn't give a crap about anyone else and doesn't mind the possibility of spreading the flu to more vulnerable individuals.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TempusFugit on March 10, 2020, 07:20:25 PM
Uh, no, because I'm not in a group prone to major complications from the flu (those being the very young and very old, or those with compromised immune systems). Similarly, I don't interact with the at risk groups often enough to warrant getting a flu vaccine.

By the same logic, I'm not even remotely worried about coronavirus, because for me personally and those I interact with, it's not a big deal.

Spoken like someone who has never had the flu, and/or is so young and naive they think they're indestructible. Or just doesn't give a crap about anyone else and doesn't mind the possibility of spreading the flu to more vulnerable individuals.

-W

I hope that in a few months were all chuckling about the hysteria. But I'm not so sanguine about this just because the consequences for misjudging it might be so severe.    I spoke with a friend earlier this evening who has a similar attitude as mr. foot does and i find it a bit - Ill say it, childish.  I hope i get it soon.  Im not changing my life one bit. Ok then.  Even if you don't personally suffer any major issues from this virus, you could very easily pass it to other people who will. I had the regular flu already this year and that is plenty for me, thanks. 

The irony is that if most people started taking this seriously before it seems like its urgent in your area, we might dodge this thing without too many people dying.   But to take it seriously now in most places here in the US makes you look like an alarmist or a prepper of some sort.  I don't mean hoarding supplies or wearing a mask, just saying no thanks to big gatherings and maybe avoiding large meetings at the office.

Im concerned about where we may find ourselves in about 10 or 12 days if everyone goes to St Patricks parties and parades. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2020, 10:03:38 PM
It's possible summer temperatures halt the spread of the virus.  A counter point is places like Bahrain with temperatures in the high 70s that are experiencing community spread of the virus.

The U.S. just passed 1,000 cases according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 11, 2020, 05:13:48 AM
It's possible summer temperatures halt the spread of the virus.  A counter point is places like Bahrain with temperatures in the high 70s that are experiencing community spread of the virus.

The U.S. just passed 1,000 cases according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

That was Trump's talking point that it will magically disappear in April, but experts say there's no evidence that will be the case.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn

Some say there may be a temporary decrease only to reappear stronger in the fall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 11, 2020, 06:19:21 AM
It's possible summer temperatures halt the spread of the virus.  A counter point is places like Bahrain with temperatures in the high 70s that are experiencing community spread of the virus.

The U.S. just passed 1,000 cases according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

That was Trump's talking point that it will magically disappear in April, but experts say there's no evidence that will be the case.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn

Some say there may be a temporary decrease only to reappear stronger in the fall.

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesnt care that whether its 30F outside or 85F, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldnt surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Davnasty on March 11, 2020, 07:36:40 AM
It's possible summer temperatures halt the spread of the virus.  A counter point is places like Bahrain with temperatures in the high 70s that are experiencing community spread of the virus.

The U.S. just passed 1,000 cases according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

That was Trump's talking point that it will magically disappear in April, but experts say there's no evidence that will be the case.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn

Some say there may be a temporary decrease only to reappear stronger in the fall.

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesnt care that whether its 30F outside or 85F, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldnt surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

Human proximity plays a significant role but there are studies suggesting that temperature impacts survivability and spread of certain viruses.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080330203401.htm

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25462179
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
Post by: bigblock440 on March 11, 2020, 08:22:30 AM
snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesn’t care that whether it’s 30F outside or 85F, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

Quote
At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 11, 2020, 09:59:48 AM
I always thought it was largely because cold weather suppresses immune systems? I know for sure that   on the rare occasions I do get sick in warm weather I recover much more quickly than I do in February.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 11, 2020, 05:02:11 PM
snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesnt care that whether its 30F outside or 85F, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldnt surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

Quote
At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

I do think covid inactivated faster at higher temperatures.  Think your package sitting in a ups truck in the hot sun.  But the humidity quote goes the other way for me since RH is much higher here in the winter than in the summer.  Maybe its absolute humidity that matters?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 11, 2020, 08:22:35 PM

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 11, 2020, 08:27:30 PM
snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesnt care that whether its 30F outside or 85F, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldnt surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

Quote
At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Hmm interesting. Well I'm in a very hot and humid place so I guess I'll probably be fine. That and I'm in my 30s so the risk of death based on the data so far for someone my age is about 1 in a thousand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ender on March 11, 2020, 08:51:33 PM

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Queen Frugal on March 11, 2020, 08:53:52 PM
I opened up a Roth 401k for my business this year and funded it with a piddly $500 - mostly because I just wanted something in there. I have other buckets I need to fill before filling this bucket (HSA, Roth IRA, 401k, etc.) so it's only $500. But I bought some stock today with my $500. Sale! Sale! Sale!

Not to say that I'm not worried. I am very worried. Not about my money, but about the old people in my life, about the fragile nonprofit I volunteer for and the vulnerable people we serve, how best to continue serving them in the days that are coming, how best to serve my own clients (most very vulnerable to coronavirus), and how hard the coronavirus is going to make everyone's life for a while. I am also having a very tough time wrapping my head around life in a coronavirus infected world. It's mind boggling.

I read a statistic today that new coronavirus cases have increased 13fold in the last two weeks world wide. I haven't fact checked that or anything, but if true, and the trend continues, which maybe it will or maybe it won't, but if it does, that would mean our roughly 1000 cases in the US today will be 130k in 2 weeks (sounds icky), 1.69 mil in 4 weeks (eye popping), 22 mil in 6 weeks (jaw dropping), 285 mil in 8 weeks (#@!%). My mind blown, I had to look up population of the US - apparently about 327 mil.

Wow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 11, 2020, 09:09:56 PM

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!

I would not be at all surprised if we get to eight years ago prices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 11, 2020, 09:39:44 PM

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!

I would not be at all surprised if we get to eight years ago prices.

I will be surprised if we drop much below 2,000 (4 years ago prices). Eight years ago prices would be 1,400 and a close to -60% drop peak to trough.

In the short term though, ever since Trump's address to the nation S&P futures are flirting with their limit down for the night (currently at -4.6% at the moment, limit until the market opens tomorrow morning is -5.0%).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 11, 2020, 10:39:42 PM
Eight years ago prices would be 1,400 and a close to -60% drop peak to trough.

We were discussing the Dow and I took 55% off the record close and had to go back eight years to find that price. Since I lived through the financial crisis I'm never surprised to see the markets take 55% off the top. This might be one of those times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on March 11, 2020, 11:11:16 PM
To not get board with the majority of my portfolio in treasuires and gold, have been doing the seesaw of SQQQ on up days to cash on down days with only about 10k. This has kept the portfolio well into the green percentage wise. Might be good as long as the fed keeps on pumping and reacting. I wouldn't do this with more then a little play money though. I think puts on HYG would be amazing right now. There are going to be massive defaults in junk bonds potentially.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 12, 2020, 04:56:53 AM
We were discussing the Dow and I took 55% off the record close and had to go back eight years to find that price. Since I lived through the financial crisis I'm never surprised to see the markets take 55% off the top.
A century ago that happened over years, during the great depression.  Besides the great depression and the financial crisis of 2008, when has the market dropped -55%?  I would say it's very, very rare, and very unlikely.  Not impossible, but not something to plan around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Joe Schmo on March 12, 2020, 06:02:38 AM
I'm taking the view that I don't need this money for 30 years and buying as much as I can for as long as I can...thinking I can stretch it out for a year or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 12, 2020, 07:18:03 AM
PDXTabs, didn't realize you were talking only about the dow and not the markets generally. Putting aside the particular index, I'd be surprised if we see a drop as big as the great recession and the great depression, but if it happens it happens.

Looks like S&P 500 futures did indeed hit limit down overnight again (-5%) which puts them almost exactly at 2,600. Will see where the market opens in about 15 minutes.

Edit: And now hit the first circuit breaker (-7%) shortly after opening. Just like Monday. It's deja vu all over again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: bigblock440 on March 12, 2020, 07:29:20 AM
snip

The tendency for seasonal illnesses to abate during warmer weather in northern countries has little to do with the actual outside temperatures (at least not directly).  Simply put, when the weather is nicer we spend more time outside in more open spaces and less indoors in small crowded groups. In other words, in the summer we naturally have more summer distancing.

The virus doesnt care that whether its 30F outside or 85F, and it can spread during summer, winter, fall, whatever.  It spreads based on the number of infected people and how many close-counter interactions it has with other potential carriers. 
It shouldnt surprise anyone that tropical climates like Bahrain are susceptible - they get the flu just as people in Norway and Canada do.

That's not true, depending on the virus. 

Quote
At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Hmm interesting. Well I'm in a very hot and humid place so I guess I'll probably be fine. That and I'm in my 30s so the risk of death based on the data so far for someone my age is about 1 in a thousand.

If you're talking about the flu, sure.  If you're talking about COVID, we don't know yet (or at least I haven't seen anything) since the coronavirus isn't an influenza virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on March 12, 2020, 07:50:56 AM
Use limit orders guys!

Also remember that the other day VGSH (Short term treasuries) spiked substantially up 25% the other day. Put in limit good till cancelled sell orders for weird flash moves just in case you can catch them, beat the algos and profit! Put in some orders on stocks I have wanted to own a long time but felt they were too expensive, have super low limit orders on them in case they dip really fast so I can scoop them up. there are going to be people that market order fire sale these things. Try to get in on that if you have any cash available. Might even be worth doing margin with rates so low on good quality companies that are most likely to still profit from this bear market still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: talltexan on March 12, 2020, 08:17:37 AM
I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 12, 2020, 09:40:15 AM
PDXTabs, didn't realize you were talking only about the dow and not the markets generally. Putting aside the particular index, I'd be surprised if we see a drop as big as the great recession and the great depression, but if it happens it happens.

The Dow is already down 27% from the top and the SP500 is already down 25% from the top, and most people in the USA haven't been put into a state of emergency yet. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I think that markets could keep falling for a long time, whether or not it is a rational reaction to the pandemic. Also, now might be when we see all those BBB- rated bonds get downgraded to junk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nereo on March 12, 2020, 09:41:49 AM
I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.
Happy belated Birthday, Tex!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Cabaka on March 12, 2020, 10:30:38 AM
PDXTabs, didn't realize you were talking only about the dow and not the markets generally. Putting aside the particular index, I'd be surprised if we see a drop as big as the great recession and the great depression, but if it happens it happens.

The Dow is already down 27% from the top and the SP500 is already down 25% from the top, and most people in the USA haven't been put into a state of emergency yet. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I think that markets could keep falling for a long time, whether or not it is a rational reaction to the pandemic. Also, now might be when we see all those BBB- rated bonds get downgraded to junk.

second.

the nba cancelling season and trump shutting down travel to Europe just made this real for the country. maybe it just drops another 5% but expecting a reversal before april 1st at minimum and the country can get a hold of how serious it is gong to get isn't realistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: zygote on March 12, 2020, 01:26:15 PM
I just got a giant chunk of back pay from a delayed raise, and I shoved it all in my 403b.

That was always my plan, but it sure feels nice to get the stocks at a discount.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Chuck on March 12, 2020, 01:41:21 PM
I sold my entire post tax portfolio about a week ago. 401k and HSA remain invested. So far, this has saved me about 100k. Waiting for absolute panic before buying back in. Should shave a solid three or four years off my FIRE timeline.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 12, 2020, 06:00:58 PM
I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.
Everything 20%?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 12, 2020, 06:07:50 PM
The Dow is already down 27% from the top and the SP500 is already down 25% from the top, and most people in the USA haven't been put into a state of emergency yet. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I think that markets could keep falling for a long time, whether or not it is a rational reaction to the pandemic.

S&P 500 is down almost 27% from the Feb 19 high now.  I also am expecting it to drop further.  It seems like all I'm hearing about is everything shutting down - that's got to be a big hit to the economy going forward.  A recession seems all but certain.  I'm not sure the government and Fed pushback is going to help much in this situation.  But at some point in this downward fall of stocks, I'll need to rebalance.  I had been conservatively invested at 43% equities, and a quick calculation shows I'm close to 35% equities now.  I haven't touched anything, yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: The_Big_H on March 12, 2020, 06:24:28 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MMMdude on March 12, 2020, 06:38:08 PM
Does anyone know EPS component by sector for the S&P?  I believe there are 11 sectors and trailing earnings are 180 or something like that.  Maybe if we had it by sector we could model it out abit.  OK oil and gas earnings are going to plummet - maybe one could look at the last oil crash to come up with a number there for example.  Then for the others estimate a 25% reduction in earnings or whatever.  Utilities sector probably stays steady, hell maybe even up since people staying at home more.  Anyone have this info??? 

I saw Goldman the other day still had 3200 end of year target (although dip to 2400....at the time market was at 2900).  I'm just curious how they are estimating the earnings.  Total guess of course but would be interesting.

Or conversely could people share how their businesses are doing?  I work for a construction company heavily impacted by oil and gas.  So far no impacts but this has just started, during the last oil crash many of our customers asked for immediate price relief and we had no choice but to do it.  I think everyone right now is just kind of shell shocked. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Bloop Bloop on March 12, 2020, 06:40:53 PM

Dow futures are down over 1000 points since Trump's speech.  This market is just going to keep dropping, where it stops, nobody knows.

Just think if it drops much more it'll almost be to levels it was 3 years ago!

I would not be at all surprised if we get to eight years ago prices.

Australian share market has now dropped to 7 year lows.

Now I don't feel quite so bad about not being able to invest in shares at all (because I spent several years paying off my first home, and have spent a few years paying off my first investment property, so most of my net worth is tied up in those two properties plus cash plus business assets).

Tempted to put all the cash into shares but might wait a few days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 12, 2020, 07:06:33 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
That's what I've been thinking!  I just don't have the stomach for market timing.  I know if I stay in, eventually it will come back up again.  And I don't need it right now, so I'll be fine.  Good luck to all those trying to time things just right.  I hope you get back in before it's too late.  And just remember, even if you get it right this time, it doesn't mean you'll get it right every time.  Don't get too cocky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 12, 2020, 07:13:00 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 12, 2020, 08:06:55 PM
I tapped $4,000 of our taxable account to buy shares this afternoon because I couldn't help it. But I really need to get permission to continue.

Sadly, long term bonds have been tanking along with stocks since Monday so I have not tripped any more rebalancing bands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Freedomin5 on March 12, 2020, 09:20:24 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

Theyre trying to time the best moment to buy in. How low can it go? How do I know when stocks are at its lowest point so I can make the biggest profit? Thats still market timing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 12, 2020, 09:53:00 PM
How low?  How long?
20,000 dead Americans from flu. 40,00,000 infected.

Seems media driven so far. Maybe not. Still on sidelines from 3,247
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 12, 2020, 10:56:02 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

Theyre trying to time the best moment to buy in. How low can it go? How do I know when stocks are at its lowest point so I can make the biggest profit? Thats still market timing.

I admit Im not selling but trying to figure out when to invest some extra cash.  Id prefer to do it on a down day than an up day but I dont watch closely enough to have pulled the trigger today

I dont really think I can really beat the market but need more flexibility than x amount on the Y of every month

West coast trading hours are hard on me.  Never have time for finances in then mornings
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 13, 2020, 04:45:45 AM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

Theyre trying to time the best moment to buy in. How low can it go? How do I know when stocks are at its lowest point so I can make the biggest profit? Thats still market timing.

I'm just looking at rebalancing, which is something you should do to maintain your AA, but not immediately with every dip/drop in the market.  Studies have shown that it's best not to rebalance as frequently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Geographer on March 13, 2020, 05:26:50 AM
With this being the first big market "event" since my working career, I took advantage of it by doing some TLH yesterday in my Vanguard brokerage (my first time TLH!!). I also rebalanced back to my AA of 80% stocks 20% bonds to capture some of the stocks on sale. Who knows, it could keep dropping, but I'll just keep buying with my biweekly paycheck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Freedomin5 on March 13, 2020, 05:32:51 AM
Your IPS should include a timeline of when and how frequently you rebalance. If you cant be online when the markets open, set a limit order the night before at a price you can accept. If you like gambling, set the limit order price at a number that is lower than the current price, and set a length of time for your order to remain active.

Its fun for some to try to guess the market, and thats fine, as long as you realize that questions like How low can it go? And when is the best time to get in the market? and will it continue to drop? are moving into gambling territory and are not necessarily sound investment questions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MoMoneyFewerProblems on March 13, 2020, 08:39:51 AM
I haven't changed anything thus far, my auto contributions to HSA/401k/IRA/Taxable continue unchanged. I get my annual bonus next week and I will put all of that in my taxable account (Hoping the market doesn't come roaring back before I get that deposit!). I look at this as an incredible opportunity to get some great returns. I think this has all blown over in a few months and the market has recovered by year-end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: NWOutlier on March 13, 2020, 10:05:41 AM
buying more! that is what I'm doing... spent 20k more on both fidelity total stock marking and vanguard total stock market yesterday and I will continue to buy as it goes down.

I'm 52 this year -

I figure this; if my lifestyle is 100k/yr... and I have 10M dollars and the market drops 50%, what do I care?  (btw I don't have 10M ... I don't even have 2M .. and at this rate, I may not have 1M - but I will keep pushing money into this until it explodes again.)


NWOutlier (Steve)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: talltexan on March 13, 2020, 01:22:10 PM
I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.
Happy belated Birthday, Tex!

Thanks! I rebalance on my birthday instead of quarter-end to try to move off market cycles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: talltexan on March 13, 2020, 01:26:24 PM
I rebalanced in Feb when I had my fortieth birthday. Put everything 20% into bonds.

Grateful today for those bonds, they help me sleep.
Everything 20%?

To clarify: Roth, 401K, each account has 20% bonds. Or had. I imagine that's changed in the last five weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: des999 on March 13, 2020, 02:40:06 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: des999 on March 13, 2020, 02:42:21 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

to get more back on topic, I did cash in my 11% bonds today and bought equities.  So, I did make changes in my 401k based on the Corona.  I'm currently sitting at 100% stocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 13, 2020, 03:50:35 PM

I don't have nor feel a need for an IPS, or rather everything is just in my head.  I think there was a poll on that quite a few months ago on this forum.  I've been at this for a long time, and I can make the best decision from the facts on the ground.  This virus isn't going away overnight, so I'm in no rush.  I've been placing limit orders for years.

I don't have any magic cash, but I do have quite a bit in a stable value fund in my retirement account that's part of my AA that I can use for AA rebalancing.

I fully expect to stocks to continue a downward trend after the dead cat bounce today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Vapour on March 13, 2020, 05:10:31 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.
There are more than I expected there to be on this forum.  Here are just the ones in this thread.  I'm sure I'm biased by all the other threads I've been reading too.  This doesn't count the people discussing how they want to market time and it's so obvious why they should, but didn't actually specifically say they were selling anything.

I am taking profits and moving to a more conservative allocations by halving my stock allocations.
I got out 70% of my investments a couple weeks ago. The rest is still in but I will leave it alone for 30 years.
I've never timed the market in my life but felt this time it was just too obvious what was going to happen. Plus the market was so overvalued to begin with.
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243
Someone died in my state now of CV and the Governor declared emergency. I cannot stay as fully invested in the stonk market as I am and will be moving a bit out.
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16....
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 13, 2020, 05:11:40 PM
Well, when you put them all next to each other like that... I guess you have a point.

EDITed to add - I'm still 100% VT, save for a tiny emergency fund.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 13, 2020, 05:29:41 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

I raided my emergency fund.  Investing more when the markets on a fire sale is an emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: the_fixer on March 13, 2020, 05:55:50 PM
Planning to do a Roth conversion on an IRA while the value is down not changing my allocation.

For my 401k I am changing my contribution to the 70% max my company will allow and maxing my HSA in the next couple of paychecks to try and buy as much as I can during this period. Company has an automatic match so maxing out my 401k early has no effect on the match.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DadJokes on March 13, 2020, 08:36:00 PM
"The rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."

-The market
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: use2betrix on March 13, 2020, 08:51:20 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

You can search my posts for 1-2 years that I keep 1-2 years of living expenses in cash instead of bonds, due to the volatility of my work. It had slowly inflated into over 2 years of expenses (around $110k-$120k) in cash, so this seemed like a good time to drop it back down to 1 year. Once the Dow hits around 28k or 29k Ill start building the fund back up.

Basically has always been my plan. Like having 2 years savings then primarily invested in VTSAX, but knew if a strong downturn came, I could lighten up the emergency fund.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 13, 2020, 09:30:26 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.

Ha, good point!

In my case, I'm looking for a low enough market to sell a few put options that I've been using as hedges just for a big correction. I am also open to going more aggressive with my asset allocation if valuations get more reasonable. The PE ratio of the S&P 500 is still about 30% over the historical average at 20.4 and CAPE has only fallen to 25.7.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio  (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)

I'm still technically in bond tent territory, so unless it's 2008 all over again I'm messing around the margins.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 13, 2020, 10:00:12 PM
I really need to be more pithy - I didn't appear in the list of market timers, even though several people disagreed with my view.  Here's the most quotable part from Mar 9:
"... but wound up selling at 1.3% lower than current prices.  Selling ETF gives me a credit, which I then used to buy a long-term treasury ETF and gold."

I'm not proud about market timing, but the gap between the data and stock market annoys me.  The U.S. has between 1600 (CDC) and 2400 (worldometers.info) cases now, and that's with inadequate testing.  People are probably spreading the virus and unaware of it, just like in every other country that has gone through this.  I knew hope is a powerful drug, but does Trump declaring a national emergency merit +9% to U.S. stocks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 13, 2020, 10:56:16 PM
Im sure there are plenty market timers on the forums, but culling specifically from this thread is probably sample bias
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 14, 2020, 08:27:30 AM
I knew hope is a powerful drug, but does Trump declaring a national emergency merit +9% to U.S. stocks?

No, and I fully expect to see it drop significantly over the next week or two as things worsen, COVID-19 spreads, and people hunker down even more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ender on March 14, 2020, 08:34:18 AM
I knew hope is a powerful drug, but does Trump declaring a national emergency merit +9% to U.S. stocks?

Depends on what the losses were from - if enough of the recent market drops have been panic/fear based, then hope overrides that.

Many people are panicking and selling stocks. You see that even here, the number of threads that popped up in the last two or so weeks about selling/cashing out into something safer is, well, a lot higher than for the last 10 years.

Given we don't know how much of the selloff is irrational fear (vs credible expectations for economic impact), it doesn't surprise me at all that hope would cause the market to move up that much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 14, 2020, 08:50:26 AM
Given we don't know how much of the selloff is irrational fear (vs credible expectations for economic impact), it doesn't surprise me at all that hope would cause the market to move up that much.

I agree, but would add that there is a third case in addition to (1) irrational fear and (2) rational calculation of long term economic impacts, which is (3) selling is driven by bands/companies/individuals trying to raise cash to cover near term obligations.

This third model is consistent with the prices of stocks, bonds, and gold all falling at the same time (as they have at least a couple of days this week). In the third scenario, companies may have a rational view that the long run economic impact will be modest looking back 10, 20, or 30 years from now, but still have to sell assets at depressed prices today to get the cash to weather the next few months where revenue will likely drop substantially. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: JetBlast on March 14, 2020, 10:17:39 AM
I've made no changes except rebalancing an IRA that was a little too far off of my target allocation.  Same 401k deposits, and same percentage of take home pay going into savings and brokerage accounts.  I'd love to buy in a much larger way, but I'm conserving cash at the moment because my industry is in meltdown mode, and at 85% seniority a prolonged crisis could mean furlough.  Frivolous spending is down even more than normal.  Waiting to get a better feel for how my company is planning to address this over the next few months.

The airline industry has totally fallen to shit this last week with travel restrictions and basically every reason people travel except wedding and funerals coming to a grinding halt.  Bookings for the next four weeks are negative, with more cancellations than new bookings.  April is looking like a total wipeout for the industry.  Hopefully travel begins to rebound in the back half of May.

I did a little back of the envelope math using last year's 10Q reports for the first two quarters, public statements about the revenue environment, and wild ass guesses as to how the rebound will look over the next few months, and the revenue hit for my company was roughly $6.5 billion.  That said, I have no special insight into forward bookings or what the government plans over the next couple months for restrictions.  I am probably way off, but it gives some idea of the magnitude of the sudden liquidity crisis for the airlines.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 14, 2020, 10:45:01 AM
I knew hope is a powerful drug, but does Trump declaring a national emergency merit +9% to U.S. stocks?
Given we don't know how much of the selloff is irrational fear (vs credible expectations for economic impact), it doesn't surprise me at all that hope would cause the market to move up that much.
I would argue it's both.  China, Italy and now Spain each decided to lock down large numbers of people to prevent COVID-19 from spreading.  Italy and Spain have 0.8% of world market cap, each.  Because of prior epidemics, Korea was more prepared, and combined a limited lock down with aggressive testing.

France and Germany haven't locked down, but aren't far behind Spain in the number of cases.  They represent 2.8% and 2.4% of the world market cap - what happens if both countries lock down?

U.S. now has 2,500 cases, and 55.8% of the world's market cap are in U.S. stocks.  If the U.S. shuts down a fraction of it's economy, that has a huge impact on both economic output and consumption.  That's why I think the level of cases in the U.S. should be watched carefully - to gauge what economic activity might go offline, and send stocks tumbling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 14, 2020, 11:01:16 AM
I knew hope is a powerful drug, but does Trump declaring a national emergency merit +9% to U.S. stocks?
Given we don't know how much of the selloff is irrational fear (vs credible expectations for economic impact), it doesn't surprise me at all that hope would cause the market to move up that much.
I would argue it's both.  China, Italy and now Spain each decided to lock down large numbers of people to prevent COVID-19 from spreading.  Italy and Spain have 0.8% 2.5% and 1.6% of world market cap, each GDP, respectively.  Because of prior epidemics, Korea was more prepared, and combined a limited lock down with aggressive testing.

France and Germany haven't locked down, but aren't far behind Spain in the number of cases.  They represent 2.8% 3.3% and 2.4% 4.6% of the world market cap GDP - what happens if both countries lock down?

U.S. now has 2,500 cases, and 55.8% of the world's market cap are in U.S. stocks 24.5% of world GDP is in the US.  If the U.S. shuts down a fraction of it's economy, that has a huge impact on both economic output and consumption.  That's why I think the level of cases in the U.S. should be watched carefully - to gauge what economic activity might go offline, and send stocks tumbling.

I agree with the point that you are making, but I want to point out that it may give a better sense of the proportional impact of different countries going into lockdown if we look at each country as a percent of world GDP rather than the market cap of stocks listed on that country's exchanges. The US is only about 1/4 of total GDP but more than 1/2 of total market cap, but that's because a lot of US listed companies get the majority of their revenue and profit overseas.

The market cap of Italian listed companies is only 1/70th as large as of US listed companies but italy's GDP is actually about 1/10th as large as that of the USA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 14, 2020, 11:09:28 AM
If the U.S. shuts down a fraction of it's economy, that has a huge impact on both economic output and consumption.  That's why I think the level of cases in the U.S. should be watched carefully - to gauge what economic activity might go offline, and send stocks tumbling.
The US is only about 1/4 of total GDP but more than 1/2 of total market cap, but that's because a lot of US listed companies get the majority of their revenue and profit overseas.
That sounds more accurate.  If a U.S. company has overseas offices, those offices might continue being productive - so the impact might be proportional to U.S. GDP.  We'll also find out how many of those offices can work independently when their headquarters shuts down (if it comes to that).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Sultan58 on March 14, 2020, 12:21:25 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?
That's what I've been thinking! 

Is it? I think that there are very few people actually selling their assets.

Well....I'm pretty happy about my decision on Jan 16th.  If you read back thru the pooh pooh quotes from the last week of January....many thought this would pass in a  month.  That was about 7000 DJIA points ago.  We all make our own decisions with our investments and some don't care to ride the roller coaster as much as others. I moved some back in after late February....no I didnt catch the bottom but what I know is that i'm 10% down instead of 25%......so I'll keep doing what I do.

Best wishes to all.


"There are more than I expected there to be on this forum.  Here are just the ones in this thread.  I'm sure I'm biased by all the other threads I've been reading too.  This doesn't count the people discussing how they want to market time and it's so obvious why they should, but didn't actually specifically say they were selling anything."

I am taking profits and moving to a more conservative allocations by halving my stock allocations.
I got out 70% of my investments a couple weeks ago. The rest is still in but I will leave it alone for 30 years.
I've never timed the market in my life but felt this time it was just too obvious what was going to happen. Plus the market was so overvalued to begin with.
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243
Someone died in my state now of CV and the Governor declared emergency. I cannot stay as fully invested in the stonk market as I am and will be moving a bit out.
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16....
I went to cash in all accounts some time ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: achvfi on March 14, 2020, 01:30:24 PM
Sadly we are going to see lot more people suffering due to this crisis. In next week or two I suspect we are going to see significant ramp up of number of people infected and deaths in US.  There will be disruptions, income loss, illness and lives lost. Unfortunately we have incompetent shitty leadership in Washington to deal with all this. 

Regarding investments.
So far I dumped into market about 25K in last two weeks, maxing out IRAs and rest in taxable. Significantly reducing emergency fund.

Also I am refinancing my 15 year fixed mortgage to 30 year fixed, taking advantage of low mortgage interest rates reducing it by 25 basis points. More importantly its going to reduce monthly mortgage payment by about 40%. Goal is to reduce monthly cash flow needed for housing expenses. 

I am going to shift the increased cash flow from recent pay raise and lower mortgage payments to invest in taxable brokerage and replenish EF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 14, 2020, 03:00:46 PM
I was thinking 30 to 40% off the S&P 500 closing high (Feb 19), so I'm still holding off on rebalancing at this point, at least until 30%, then reevaluate my AA at 40% if that ever happens.  I was down about 4 years of retirement spending on Thursday and gained about a year back on Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 14, 2020, 03:46:42 PM
My 60/40 stocks to bonds asset allocation got far enough out of whack that I had to sell some stocks and buy some bonds to rebalance..  Other than that, no change to my investments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: AdrianC on March 14, 2020, 04:09:49 PM
My 60/40 stocks to bonds asset allocation got far enough out of whack that I had to sell some stocks and buy some bonds to rebalance..  Other than that, no change to my investments.
I sold some bonds and bought some stocks, but whatever floats your boat :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 14, 2020, 04:37:23 PM
My 60/40 stocks to bonds asset allocation got far enough out of whack that I had to sell some stocks and buy some bonds to rebalance..  Other than that, no change to my investments.
I sold some bonds and bought some stocks, but whatever floats your boat :-)

Whoop, had that backwards.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TomTX on March 14, 2020, 05:57:11 PM
How low?  How long?
20,000 dead Americans from flu. 40,00,000 infected.

Seems media driven so far. Maybe not. Still on sidelines from 3,247

Flu is an extremely poor model when the fatality rate is 10x-30x higher.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 15, 2020, 06:02:14 AM
Not only is the chance of death much higher, so is the chance of transmission:


"Virus Transmission
The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19.  Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people"

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html#virus-transmission
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BobTheBuilder on March 15, 2020, 07:05:52 AM
I bought some puts just before the market crashed. I already sold them. Might have been smarter to try better timing, but who can.

Continuing the ETF savings as planned, with minor modifications. I see a decade of Pharma and Biotech coming, so there is a new ETF in my list.

SO had the luck to find a forgotten funds account and moved out of it early February because of the expense ratio. Basically it was a very expensive MSCI World.

She is short-term DCAing that back into the markets starting this month, and distributing over the continents.

This too shall pass, keep going!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ice_beard on March 15, 2020, 12:58:29 PM
In my 403b contributions, I went back to 100% equities this week after being like 75/25 for a couple years.  It's offering a bit of cushion.  VBTIX is up almost 12% over the past year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Retireatee1 on March 15, 2020, 01:42:44 PM
My 60/40 stocks/bonds ratio got skewed to 55/45.  I'm going to rebalance 1% a week for five weeks and then reevaluate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TempusFugit on March 15, 2020, 01:58:38 PM
I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations yesterday to see what my YTD returns are for my portfolio

As of yesterday, my invested portfolio is down -11.8% YTD (excluding contributions).  Before the Friday bounce it would be more like -16.2%.  I'm pretty conservative with a 72/25/3 (Stocks/Bonds/Cash) AA at the start of the year.     

Which, all in all, is not that bad. Of course, I don't believe for a minute that the (financial) pain is over. I think we're going lower than we went last week, possibly by a lot, as the reality of the impact sets in.   

The economies of every city and town in the country are going to be hit hard when all the people whose livelihoods are based on social interaction are no longer able to make ends meet. Add to that the global trade impacts on both supply and demand and an oil price war as the big cherry on top.   

However, as bad as I think it will get, it also seems like something that we can get back out of within a reasonable period (maybe 12 months after the pandemic abates, so 15-18 months from now). Unfortunately, the government spending that is going to be necessary to keep things afloat for the next few quarters is going to add to the already crazy debt problem.  Long term that's got to start hurting eventually.




Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 15, 2020, 03:17:22 PM

I just read this.  In light of all the coronavirus related shutdowns, panic, hunkering down, etc., I question how much this will really do in preventing the markets from continuing a downward trend, as I still expect them to do.

Quote
In an emergency move Sunday, the Federal Reserve announced it is dropping its benchmark interest rate to zero and launching a new round of quantitative easing.

The QE program will entail $500 billion worth of asset purchases entailing Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ice_beard on March 15, 2020, 03:23:39 PM
The last emergency cut didn't go over so well for that day of trading. 
What time do the futures markets open?
Do we loose all of Fridays gains?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 15, 2020, 06:19:39 PM
The last emergency cut didn't go over so well for that day of trading. 
What time do the futures markets open?
Do we loose all of Fridays gains?

Not a good sign.

CNBC headline:

Stock futures drop hit limit down even as Fed slashes rates; Dow futures off 1,000 points
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 15, 2020, 07:11:02 PM
I hold 6% in 20yr/30yr Treasuries, so it's a good sign yields may drop and make existing Treasuries more valuable
I hold 60% in U.S./international equities, so overall it will hurt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Ready2Save27 on March 15, 2020, 07:34:00 PM
I think the average American doesnt realize the gravity of the situation. I posted on the 1st page of this thread and at the time I had no idea how bad this was going to get. Im very confident that the market will drop like a rock over the next couple of weeks until businesses start to be forced to close by government/state action.

It seems like Fridays gains were based off of Trumps speech, which had a lot of completely false statements in there (such as Google developing a website for symptom checks to see if you need a test, and then Google saying theyre were not doing this). I assume the US is going to be similar to other European countries in a few weeks (except we wont have tests to identify sick people).

I know the common advice (which is almost always good) is to not time the market, but if scientists are saying this is going to get a lot worse, so will the market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 15, 2020, 07:37:04 PM
Im very confident that the market will drop like a rock over the next couple of weeks until businesses start to be forced to close by government/state action.

That's already started in at least a couple states.  But I don't think that's going to stop the drop, yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Bloop Bloop on March 15, 2020, 09:21:46 PM
I think the average American doesnt realize the gravity of the situation. I posted on the 1st page of this thread and at the time I had no idea how bad this was going to get. Im very confident that the market will drop like a rock over the next couple of weeks until businesses start to be forced to close by government/state action.

If that happens, anyone who keeps his or her job will be greatly advantaged by buying opportunities. I'm not referring to timing the market - just normal accumulation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 15, 2020, 09:28:58 PM
I think the average American doesnt realize the gravity of the situation. I posted on the 1st page of this thread and at the time I had no idea how bad this was going to get. Im very confident that the market will drop like a rock over the next couple of weeks until businesses start to be forced to close by government/state action.

If that happens, anyone who keeps his or her job will be greatly advantaged by buying opportunities. I'm not referring to timing the market - just normal accumulation.

My thoughts exactly.  There will be buying opportunities for those who can weather this storm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 15, 2020, 11:03:28 PM
OK, I got permission to move about 1/3 of our taxable accounts back to stocks in the event that good prices should come to pass.  I plan to value average weekly over the next 2-3 months (dependent upon low prices continuing), which will still leave us at a conservative(ish) 60% bonds 40% stocks allocation there. Also I am thinking that I may pursue a couple of Capital One savings account signup bonuses and their relatively high interest rates for the "bond" part. And their FDIC insurance. Importantly, the bond/cash will be large enough for a 20% payment on a reasonable house and a 10% payment on an outrageous house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 16, 2020, 11:48:05 AM
I get paid twice a month and I was just looking at my last few 401k contributions since I increased my contribution to 25% this year.

3/13 - 13.10 shares of S&P 500 index fund
2/28 - 12.03 shares of S&P 500 index fund
2/14 - 10.52 shares of S&P 500 index fund
1/31 - 11.04 shares of S&P 500 index fund
1/15 - 10.83 shares of S&P 500 index fund

Basically I'm getting two extra shares now. Sure my account has dropped by five digits in the last month or so, but it will go back up well before I touch any of this and now I'm going to have a lot more shares than I would have otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MissNancyPryor on March 16, 2020, 12:43:38 PM
Mad Fientist had JL Collins on- 

https://www.madfientist.com/coronavirus-market-crash/
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 16, 2020, 01:10:53 PM
Mad Fientist had JL Collins on- 
https://www.madfientist.com/coronavirus-market-crash/
Is there a transcript or summary anywhere of that podcast?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: caracarn on March 16, 2020, 01:21:54 PM
Mad Fientist had JL Collins on- 
https://www.madfientist.com/coronavirus-market-crash/
Is there a transcript or summary anywhere of that podcast?
Yes on the same page as the podcast.  Scroll down and you can read it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 16, 2020, 01:27:56 PM
Mad Fientist had JL Collins on- 
https://www.madfientist.com/coronavirus-market-crash/
Is there a transcript or summary anywhere of that podcast?

It's on that page.  Maybe they just added it or maybe you have it blocked somehow
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: gsd802 on March 16, 2020, 01:47:52 PM
I see alot of posts of people selling bonds to buy stocks right now.  For example, I recently bought bonds (to make my AA 90/10) that are now worth $.19 less per share than they were when I bought them.  When is it a good idea to sell them at a loss in exchange to buy stocks at a lower price?  I am a long term investor, and is there any penalties to doing this if you are just reinvesting within the IRA?  I have searched high and low and have not found any explanation for this.  Thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: frugalnacho on March 16, 2020, 01:51:56 PM
I see alot of posts of people selling bonds to buy stocks right now.  For example, I recently bought bonds (to make my AA 90/10) that are now worth $.19 less per share than they were when I bought them. When is it a good idea to sell them at a loss in exchange to buy stocks at a lower price? I am a long term investor, and is there any penalties to doing this if you are just reinvesting within the IRA?  I have searched high and low and have not found any explanation for this.  Thanks

When you need to get your asset allocation back into alignment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 16, 2020, 01:53:19 PM
I see alot of posts of people selling bonds to buy stocks right now.  For example, I recently bought bonds (to make my AA 90/10) that are now worth $.19 less per share than they were when I bought them.  When is it a good idea to sell them at a loss in exchange to buy stocks at a lower price?  I am a long term investor, and is there any penalties to doing this if you are just reinvesting within the IRA?  I have searched high and low and have not found any explanation for this.  Thanks

No penalty within IRA only drag due to commissions and/or trading spread. 

As for when is a good time... I'd say follow your IPS but it sounds like you don't have one.  If you are going to stick to your 10% bonds allocation, wait until the bonds increase as a percentage of your portfolio past some rebalance point... say when stocks go down and bonds go up such that you now have an 80/20 portfolio rebalance back to a 90/10.

Search terms for this are REBALANCING BANDS STRATEGY TRIGGER
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 16, 2020, 03:21:48 PM
It's right on the edge of my first rebalancing target of being 30% off the closing record high of the S&P 500, but based on the way it's dropping, I think I'll hold out a while as I think my earlier prediction of up to 40% off the high may come to pass, if not worse, based on how much and how quickly it's dropping, even after the Fed stepped in, and with the worst of COVID-19 yet to come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
Post by: gsd802 on March 16, 2020, 04:57:46 PM
I see alot of posts of people selling bonds to buy stocks right now.  For example, I recently bought bonds (to make my AA 90/10) that are now worth $.19 less per share than they were when I bought them.  When is it a good idea to sell them at a loss in exchange to buy stocks at a lower price?  I am a long term investor, and is there any penalties to doing this if you are just reinvesting within the IRA?  I have searched high and low and have not found any explanation for this.  Thanks

No penalty within IRA only drag due to commissions and/or trading spread. 

As for when is a good time... I'd say follow your IPS but it sounds like you don't have one.  If you are going to stick to your 10% bonds allocation, wait until the bonds increase as a percentage of your portfolio past some rebalance point... say when stocks go down and bonds go up such that you now have an 80/20 portfolio rebalance back to a 90/10.

Search terms for this are REBALANCING BANDS STRATEGY TRIGGER

I was 100% stocks until not too long ago.  I read that its safer to have some bonds, so I bought some from cash I had in money market.  After the fact, I saw that alot of people older than me still had 100% stocks.  I am 30, and a long ways from retiring. 

I guess my thought process was if you sold bonds when market is down, you wont loose a whole lot, and if you take that money and buy into stocks that are priced extremely low, once the market bounces back you will regain the money lost from the bonds and then much more because stocks are valued higher.  Or, am I way off?

And thank you,  I will search for that
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 16, 2020, 05:06:10 PM
You are right that holding bonds is typically an opportunity to earn a rebalancing bonus (this is not guaranteed just like everything else in finance).  But without having pre-determined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing and likely to let emotion influence you.  This can work out fine if you are lucky or go slightly bad otherwise.  But either way 10% bonds is pretty small potatoes so if it were me Id just hold my current allocation and try not to lose any sleep at night
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 16, 2020, 08:03:48 PM
You are right that holding bonds is typically an opportunity to earn a rebalancing bonus (this is not guaranteed just like everything else in finance).  But without having pre-determined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing and likely to let emotion influence you.  This can work out fine if you are lucky or go slightly bad otherwise.  But either way 10% bonds is pretty small potatoes so if it were me Id just hold my current allocation and try not to lose any sleep at night

Not sure I agree.

If you have a defined asset allocation, re-balancing is kinda the opposite of market timing.  It makes sense to have pre-defined triggers for re-balancing, but unless you're failing to do it each year or two or you're doing it weekly it's pretty safe and quite different than market timing.  You are always selling your highest performing asset to buy your lowest performing one.  It forces you to sell high and buy low.

When you're market timing, you think that you know what the future is and are making a gambling bet.  When you re-balance you're returning to the asset allocation you determined was the correct path to follow years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on March 16, 2020, 08:34:35 PM
I guess put options on the couple stocks did work out at end of day. Insane profit for min risk.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 16, 2020, 09:37:28 PM
You are right that holding bonds is typically an opportunity to earn a rebalancing bonus (this is not guaranteed just like everything else in finance).  But without having pre-determined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing and likely to let emotion influence you.  This can work out fine if you are lucky or go slightly bad otherwise.  But either way 10% bonds is pretty small potatoes so if it were me Id just hold my current allocation and try not to lose any sleep at night

Not sure I agree.

If you have a defined asset allocation, re-balancing is kinda the opposite of market timing.  It makes sense to have pre-defined triggers for re-balancing, but unless you're failing to do it each year or two or you're doing it weekly it's pretty safe and quite different than market timing.  You are always selling your highest performing asset to buy your lowest performing one.  It forces you to sell high and buy low.

When you're market timing, you think that you know what the future is and are making a gambling bet.  When you re-balance you're returning to the asset allocation you determined was the correct path to follow years ago.
I think you misread dragoncar? He said "without" predefined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 16, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
You are right that holding bonds is typically an opportunity to earn a rebalancing bonus (this is not guaranteed just like everything else in finance).  But without having pre-determined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing and likely to let emotion influence you.  This can work out fine if you are lucky or go slightly bad otherwise.  But either way 10% bonds is pretty small potatoes so if it were me Id just hold my current allocation and try not to lose any sleep at night

Not sure I agree.

If you have a defined asset allocation, re-balancing is kinda the opposite of market timing.  It makes sense to have pre-defined triggers for re-balancing, but unless you're failing to do it each year or two or you're doing it weekly it's pretty safe and quite different than market timing.  You are always selling your highest performing asset to buy your lowest performing one.  It forces you to sell high and buy low.

When you're market timing, you think that you know what the future is and are making a gambling bet.  When you re-balance you're returning to the asset allocation you determined was the correct path to follow years ago.
I think you misread dragoncar? He said "without" predefined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing.

Lets dispel with this notion that guitarstv doesnt know exactly what hes saying
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 16, 2020, 10:11:06 PM
First of 6 planned tranches from late January  liquidation was deployed today. My continue, group together or not next 5 asset deployments 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Helvegen on March 16, 2020, 10:41:12 PM
Well still pretty happy about pulling out what I did when I did. My state will likely shutdown shortly. Ecomy is trash. Prepared my daughter for pain. Fuck me, boiz.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 17, 2020, 05:43:22 AM

The S&P 500 hasn't even dropped below the Dec 24, 2018 close yet.  With this crippling event that will have a long lasting effect on the economy and likely resulting in a depression, things are much worse than then, and the market still has a good ways to drop before it finds a new bottom.  I'm not rebalancing yet!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Chuck on March 17, 2020, 02:04:48 PM
I've bought back in twice since I sold a little over a week ago. Both on down days. I've sold within 24 hours each time for 2-3% gains. Finding ways to grow my capital even as the market burns down.

This is getting worse before it gets better. Hundreds of thousands are likely already dead, and hundreds of thousands will probably die here in the USA. Be mindful that this will not be a V-Shaped recovery when committing cash to equities long term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: achvfi on March 17, 2020, 03:26:27 PM
This is getting worse before it gets better. Hundreds of thousands are likely already dead, and hundreds of thousands will probably die here in the USA. Be mindful that this will not be a V-Shaped recovery when committing cash to equities long term.

Not sure where you are getting you numbers. As per WHO or John hopkins, in US about 100 people died so far. About 8000 people across the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 17, 2020, 03:51:16 PM
This is getting worse before it gets better. Hundreds of thousands are likely already dead, and hundreds of thousands will probably die here in the USA. Be mindful that this will not be a V-Shaped recovery when committing cash to equities long term.

Not sure where you are getting you numbers. As per WHO or John hopkins, in US about 100 people died so far. About 8000 people across the world.

He's making them up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 17, 2020, 05:00:02 PM
I am resigning myself that some people simply insist on painting worst case scenarios and there is nothing you can say that will prevent them from crying doom and wailing hysteria.  If you challenge them with any sort of facts or optimistic outlook they simply double down and call you stupid.  They especially love to imply that others are immature and unsophisticated rubes.  It is panic porn. 

So they may sell their stocks and scream that we're all gonna die and then later quietly buy back in at higher prices but never admit the truth about when they did.       

LOL.   Hi Nancy.  You got a laugh out of me on that one.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 17, 2020, 07:46:09 PM
I sold long term bonds again yesterday when they finally crossed my rebalancing band. I did miss the all-time bond market high by quite a bit, but it was a better price relative to stocks, so I guess that was good. Ultimately I think rebalancing is going to be messy no matter how you do it.

If I rebalance once more I well have recovered all the money I put in long term bonds!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Zamboni on March 17, 2020, 09:28:03 PM
Thanks for the link to the MadFientist-JL Collins interview!

My stocks allocation had run up above my target so I reallocated by selling some stocks and buying some bonds to get back to my 30% bonds target in mid-February, which is when I do it every year via my couch potato method.

At this point I'm already at just over 35% bonds . . . 40% bonds is my trigger to re-balance again, but this time I suppose I'll be selling bonds to get back to 30% and buying stocks. We'll see. I semi-seriously keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile, I switched future retirement contributions from my paycheck to be 100% stock indices for the next paycheck, and I plan to keep it that way for awhile now. Each monthly contribution is small relative to my overall balances at this point, so that will only slightly impact the bond asset allocation creep. I'll buy all the way down and again on the slow churn back up, but then I'll go back to new contributions being 70/30 once it is clear that we are upward trending for a few months.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 17, 2020, 11:16:04 PM
This is getting worse before it gets better. Hundreds of thousands are likely already dead, and hundreds of thousands will probably die here in the USA.
Outside China, there are 120k cases worldwide as of March 18 2020.  Young people have an excellent survival rate, roughly 99.8%.  According to the following link, there have been 3k deaths in China and 5k deaths worldwide.  So your numbers on the current situation are a wild exaggeration.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 17, 2020, 11:43:15 PM
Radagast - given our discussion in another thread, you'll find this amusing. :)
Yesterday I sold some gold - because I fear it might drop alongside stocks in a crisis!

During panic days of last week, stocks / bonds / gold all took losses at the same time.  I don't know if markets will do the same the next time there's a panic, and I'm predicting one later this week.  So I kept some gold, and sold some gold.  Long-term treasuries are getting the crap beat out of them: the Fed dropped rates -1%, to nearly 0%... and two days later the yield on 30 year treasuries has gone up.  Looks like I will be taking some tax loss harvesting on those...

My plan is to await 10,000 COVID-19 cases in the U.S., at which point I predict the media will make it their top story, and predict the U.S. stock market will panic.  My plan is to buy stocks when that panic occurs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Zamboni on March 18, 2020, 04:57:42 AM
^Looks like we could be to that number of cases in the US this week . . .
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: DadJokes on March 18, 2020, 08:22:58 AM
Half-ass prediction with very little thought behind it:

With people stuck at home but still in need of things, Amazon will be a great stock to own for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 18, 2020, 08:55:19 AM
Half-ass prediction with very little thought behind it:

With people stuck at home but still in need of things, Amazon will be a great stock to own for the foreseeable future.

Outperform yes but I think its priced in.  People will still shop less because you need money and a job for that and lots of people are losing income. 

Amazon is hiring more workers (same with groceries, Costco, etc)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 18, 2020, 10:00:57 AM
Half-ass prediction with very little thought behind it:

With people stuck at home but still in need of things, Amazon will be a great stock to own for the foreseeable future.

Outperform yes but I think its priced in.  People will still shop less because you need money and a job for that and lots of people are losing income. 

Amazon is hiring more workers (same with groceries, Costco, etc)

Has anyone thought about how this virus might be perfectly suited for our times?

Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.

Then we are constantly handling our cell phones and keyboards, which makes hand washing a lot less effective if you then go and touch a virus-covered device that hasn't or can't be washed with soap and water. Our devices are a source of constant re-contamination.

I'm already leaving my mail in the mailbox overnight, and picking it up in the morning to give it 12 hours since the mail carrier touched it. Why order anything from Amazon and bring it right into your house?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: nemesis on March 18, 2020, 10:03:05 AM

Has anyone thought about how this virus might be perfectly suited for our times?

Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.

Then we are constantly handling our cell phones and keyboards, which makes hand washing a lot less effective if you then go and touch a virus-covered device that hasn't or can't be washed with soap and water. Our devices are a source of constant re-contamination.

I'm already leaving my mail in the mailbox overnight, and picking it up in the morning to give it 12 hours since the mail carrier touched it. Why order anything from Amazon and bring it right into your house?
Yes it is.  And more people can remote work than ever.  We are perfectly primed for this situation...pardon my pun.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Chuck on March 18, 2020, 10:38:41 AM
This is getting worse before it gets better. Hundreds of thousands are likely already dead, and hundreds of thousands will probably die here in the USA. Be mindful that this will not be a V-Shaped recovery when committing cash to equities long term.

Not sure where you are getting you numbers. As per WHO or John hopkins, in US about 100 people died so far. About 8000 people across the world.
WHO is reporting numbers given to them by individual countries. China has already been caught lying twice, and any information coming from the CCP should be disregarded. Ditto, indications are that Iran isn't being forthright: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/

We have no idea how many people actually died in Wuhan. We have no idea how bad things actually are in Iran. We have clear observation of Italy, and frankly the infection and death rates, extrapolated here, means six figures within the next week.

Exiting the market will save you a lot of capital. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: jeromedawg on March 18, 2020, 01:10:28 PM
Radagast - given our discussion in another thread, you'll find this amusing. :)
Yesterday I sold some gold - because I fear it might drop alongside stocks in a crisis!

During panic days of last week, stocks / bonds / gold all took losses at the same time.  I don't know if markets will do the same the next time there's a panic, and I'm predicting one later this week.  So I kept some gold, and sold some gold.  Long-term treasuries are getting the crap beat out of them: the Fed dropped rates -1%, to nearly 0%... and two days later the yield on 30 year treasuries has gone up.  Looks like I will be taking some tax loss harvesting on those...

My plan is to await 10,000 COVID-19 cases in the U.S., at which point I predict the media will make it their top story, and predict the U.S. stock market will panic.  My plan is to buy stocks when that panic occurs.

Any tax loss harvesting you have done or plan on doing as well?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 18, 2020, 01:17:47 PM
Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.
"But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard up to 24 hours and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Sometimes the address is a label, sometimes it's in plastic.  Could be rolling the dice there, and with any plastic filler inside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 18, 2020, 05:23:38 PM

The S&P 500 hasn't even dropped below the Dec 24, 2018 close yet.  With this crippling event that will have a long lasting effect on the economy and likely resulting in a depression, things are much worse than then, and the market still has a good ways to drop before it finds a new bottom.  I'm not rebalancing yet!

The S&P 500 finally dipped below the Dec 24, 2018 level during intraday trading, but closed higher.  I'm still expecting and waiting for the market to drop further before starting any rebalancing.  The worst in this ordeal is yet to come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MilesTeg on March 18, 2020, 06:29:59 PM
Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.
"But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard up to 24 hours and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Sometimes the address is a label, sometimes it's in plastic.  Could be rolling the dice there, and with any plastic filler inside.

Establish a package quarintine in the garage or freezer chest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 18, 2020, 07:33:16 PM
Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.
"But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard up to 24 hours and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Sometimes the address is a label, sometimes it's in plastic.  Could be rolling the dice there, and with any plastic filler inside.

Establish a package quarintine in the garage or freezer chest.

I wouldnt freeze that may prolong viability of virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 18, 2020, 07:59:35 PM
Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.
"But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard up to 24 hours and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Sometimes the address is a label, sometimes it's in plastic.  Could be rolling the dice there, and with any plastic filler inside.

Establish a package quarintine in the garage or freezer chest.

I wouldnt freeze that may prolong viability of virus

Just have all packages flow thru a tunnel of ultraviolet light or something like that which kills viruses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 18, 2020, 08:10:25 PM
Another day, another filled limit purchase order set a few days ago, from the handy surplus of recently stockpiled cash temporarily not needed for a house. I plan to keep these to one a week for a little sustainability, as I flail around for the the falling knife. Maybe. It is hard to sit out every new 10% drop though.

"Small cap value" is selling for 2013 prices, and not far from 2008 prices. I am scared to even look at what year prices international stocks are selling for. OK I looked Ow my eyes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MilesTeg on March 18, 2020, 08:29:39 PM
Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.
"But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard up to 24 hours and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Sometimes the address is a label, sometimes it's in plastic.  Could be rolling the dice there, and with any plastic filler inside.

Establish a package quarintine in the garage or freezer chest.

I wouldnt freeze that may prolong viability of virus

Not much choice with frozen goods.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: AdrianC on March 19, 2020, 06:25:48 AM
I am scared to even look at what year prices international stocks are selling for. OK I looked Ow my eyes!
I know. A few weeks ago someone posted about tax loss harvesting. I was like, can't do that when you don't have any losers, har har.

Well, thanks to VXUS we've now got actual capital losses that will last for 9 years. Gulp.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 19, 2020, 06:56:16 AM
Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.
"But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard up to 24 hours and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Sometimes the address is a label, sometimes it's in plastic.  Could be rolling the dice there, and with any plastic filler inside.

Establish a package quarintine in the garage or freezer chest.

I wouldnt freeze that may prolong viability of virus

Not much choice with frozen goods.

As long as you cook 'em you should be fine.  But yeah . . . frozen goods like berries/fruit?  Maybe stop ordering them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FIRE-Man on March 19, 2020, 07:04:14 AM
Im down about 1 red Ferrari right now.

Just bought an additional 15K VTSAX last night. Hoping to buy all the way down.

Are we all gonna make it ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 19, 2020, 07:59:33 AM
Are we all gonna make it ?

Not according to mortality rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: CrankAddict on March 19, 2020, 08:28:06 AM
So far I've not sold a thing.  I started at 70/30 stocks/bonds which has me currently at 57/43 stocks/bonds.  I know the normal wisdom is a) don't sell anything when it drops, that'll only lock in losses and b) just keep contributing at your normal schedule and c) when the market is down, buy extra to capitalize on the deals.  But we certainly aren't in normal times so I'm going back and forth on what I should be doing with contributions at this point (I'm still 100% committed to not selling the current holdings, that window is long gone). 

First, I don't see how we can be anywhere near the bottom yet, so it seems premature to burn extra cash reserves to scoop up "good" deals now that will likely not look so good in a month.  In that regard sitting on cash doesn't seem too bad.  Thoughts?

Second, by the numbers above I'm in need of a rebalance currently, but is there really an argument for doing it now if we know almost certainly it'll shift more downward in the coming months?  The more it drops the better of a move the rebalance will be.  I could do it several times along the way but you get maximum results waiting longer in a down trending market.  No?

For the monthly contribution amounts I've been doing since pre crisis, I'm torn between continuing to buy VTSAX and just DCA this thing vs going with VMFXX and waiting till we get much lower to buy in bulk.  What are you all thinking?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 19, 2020, 09:09:29 AM
Sunday, March 8, I started at 73% stocks, and last week sold until I was down to 62% stocks.
Sunday, March 15, I started at about 60% stocks, and have been buying - especially yesterday and today.
I'm now at 78% stocks.

When the exact bottom hits, I won't be able to beat a high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithm to get my order in.  Maybe it takes me a few minutes to decide what I'm doing, and send buy and sell orders.  Call it 300,000 milliseconds.  HFT will execute orders in about 1 millisecond.  Talk about being outclassed!

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  Maybe I'm wrong in thinking this is the bottom, but I think it's the point of maximum uncertainty.  If testing ramps up as quickly as claimed by those running it, it could change the virus from uncertainty into certainty - expose exactly who is infected, and allow everyone they contacted recently to be tested.  If that becomes the case, the uncertainty evaporates.  It just becomes which HFT can calculate the new stock values first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 19, 2020, 10:15:02 AM
Are we all gonna make it ?

Not according to mortality rates.

Right? Which is also why I'm not worried about my portfolio. I'm worried weather or not my best mates are going to live, or my mom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Daisyedwards800 on March 19, 2020, 11:04:10 AM
I have a lot of cash (70% of my holdings sold before the crash = $245,000), so when do I go back in?  Should I just buy $20,000 a day going forward or wait it out? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: CrankAddict on March 19, 2020, 11:39:25 AM
The perfect is the enemy of the good.  Maybe I'm wrong in thinking this is the bottom, but I think it's the point of maximum uncertainty.  If testing ramps up as quickly as claimed by those running it, it could change the virus from uncertainty into certainty - expose exactly who is infected, and allow everyone they contacted recently to be tested.  If that becomes the case, the uncertainty evaporates.  It just becomes which HFT can calculate the new stock values first.

I'll preface by saying we're all in the dark here so I certainly can't claim anything with authority, but what are you reading that makes you think this is the point of maximum uncertainty?  Quite literally overnight the known US cases have nearly doubled and the projections have gone from "could be like this until the summer" to "could be like this for 18 months".  I feel like we are not even at the foot of Mt. Uncertainty right now.  The govt is proposing stimulus mechanisms that make some amount of sense for dealing with a shorter term crisis, but what in the world is $1000 going to do when you can't work for a year?  And now we're seeing bond prices getting hit because (per the analysis anyway) the amount of US debt being discussed, combined with everything else, could actually make US Treasuries a suspect asset for the first time.  It seems improbable - but not impossible - that a month from now we're thinking "well at least we know how this is going to play out, certainty is rising, etc"

Am I crazy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 19, 2020, 12:21:27 PM
Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.
"But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard up to 24 hours and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Sometimes the address is a label, sometimes it's in plastic.  Could be rolling the dice there, and with any plastic filler inside.

Establish a package quarintine in the garage or freezer chest.

I wouldnt freeze that may prolong viability of virus

Not much choice with frozen goods.

Sure I was responding specifically to the idea of a quarantine freezer.  Keep your frozen foods in the freezer sure but dont act like they will be safe after a couple days just sitting there.  You should still consider packaging to be contaminated.

I
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: J Boogie on March 19, 2020, 12:43:59 PM
You are right that holding bonds is typically an opportunity to earn a rebalancing bonus (this is not guaranteed just like everything else in finance).  But without having pre-determined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing and likely to let emotion influence you.  This can work out fine if you are lucky or go slightly bad otherwise.  But either way 10% bonds is pretty small potatoes so if it were me Id just hold my current allocation and try not to lose any sleep at night

Not sure I agree.

If you have a defined asset allocation, re-balancing is kinda the opposite of market timing.  It makes sense to have pre-defined triggers for re-balancing, but unless you're failing to do it each year or two or you're doing it weekly it's pretty safe and quite different than market timing.  You are always selling your highest performing asset to buy your lowest performing one.  It forces you to sell high and buy low.

When you're market timing, you think that you know what the future is and are making a gambling bet.  When you re-balance you're returning to the asset allocation you determined was the correct path to follow years ago.
I think you misread dragoncar? He said "without" predefined triggers for rebalancing you are market timing.

Lets dispel with this notion that guitarstv doesnt know exactly what hes saying

...he knows EXACTLY what he's saying.

Props for an underrated Marco Rubio stump speech excerpt.

Meanwhile in Marco Rubio gaffes, he went from marshall to the marital and then just gave up trying to spell martial law. lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 19, 2020, 01:50:28 PM
The perfect is the enemy of the good.  Maybe I'm wrong in thinking this is the bottom, but I think it's the point of maximum uncertainty.  If testing ramps up as quickly as claimed by those running it, it could change the virus from uncertainty into certainty - expose exactly who is infected, and allow everyone they contacted recently to be tested.  If that becomes the case, the uncertainty evaporates.  It just becomes which HFT can calculate the new stock values first.

I'll preface by saying we're all in the dark here so I certainly can't claim anything with authority, but what are you reading that makes you think this is the point of maximum uncertainty?  Quite literally overnight the known US cases have nearly doubled and the projections have gone from "could be like this until the summer" to "could be like this for 18 months".  I feel like we are not even at the foot of Mt. Uncertainty right now.  The govt is proposing stimulus mechanisms that make some amount of sense for dealing with a shorter term crisis, but what in the world is $1000 going to do when you can't work for a year?  And now we're seeing bond prices getting hit because (per the analysis anyway) the amount of US debt being discussed, combined with everything else, could actually make US Treasuries a suspect asset for the first time.  It seems improbable - but not impossible - that a month from now we're thinking "well at least we know how this is going to play out, certainty is rising, etc"

Am I crazy?
It may surprise you to learn W.H.O. data on U.S. cases is not useful.  Now you shouldn't believe that from me, so take a look at WHO's situational report from Sunday, March 15.  Pay special attention to the column of "no new cases for the last N days"... it will show "2" days with zero new cases in the United States.  Do you believe there were zero infections between Friday and Sunday in the U.S.?  That's what the WHO data is claiming.  Try comparing their data with several other sources, and hopefully you'll avoid using them for up to the date cases in the U.S.

I'm not sure how to capture all my thinking on this, I'll try to give some context and rough thesis.

Korea handled the crisis with testing and tracking, and is considered to have handled the virus well.  Italians even ignored the lock down after it was in place, continuing to meet up.  Italy's lock down was a mess.  Both countries have universal health care.  Now the U.S. gets hit, and Americans who are struggling will not only avoid visiting the doctor, they need the paycheck and will go to work.  No universal health care, no prior experience.

On March 9 I predicted the U.S. would hit 10,000 cases roughly Mar 20-23, and sold investments owing to my conviction I knew the virus better than the media and markets.  That's risky, but the infectious disease experts were with me - even more pessimistic than me.  So Mar 9 I sold stock, and then again when the market rebounded a couple times later that week.

I planned to sell treasuries after the Fed dropped rates... in a surprise move, they did so on Sunday, instead of waiting 3 days to their usual meeting.  They also unveiled other measures, the sum total of which revealed the Fed was preparing for an event similar to the 2008 crisis.  Markets went limit down (-7%).  I did a little bit of selling treasuries and buying stocks.  Fear ripped into the markets again, with Congress unable to agree on a relief package.  Testing remained inadequate, which hides the true number of cases.

This week, during one press conference, Dr. Deborah Birx talked about testing platforms.  The old platforms tested maybe 10/day, and new ones (in whole? each?) will test millions.  I don't think the company was trying very hard before, but now they don't want to be blamed for a lack of testing.  If they really could test millions a day, that turns a situation like Italy into a situation like Korea.  If you know for certain everyone who is infected, you no longer have uncertainty.

I consider President Trump a troll who baits the media.  But he also uses "wishful thinking" to make a claim, which is really an order for people to carry out.  So when he says "everyone will get tested who wants to get tested", he sounds like a combination of Oprah (You get a car! You get a car!) and Obama (if you like your doctor you keep your doctor).  He wants it to be true... and his re-election is definitely on the line.  So he's very motivated, and he's focused on testing.  I don't trust what he says, but I trust he will fight to get re-elected, and that means testing.

All told, I think everyone will focus on faster testing, and more of it.  In the past ~100 years, the U.S. never had to roll out epidemic testing kits urgently across the whole country.  It will be messy and have glitches.  But if testing can be scaled up to unheard of speeds, then uncertainty will be replaced by certainty.

Do you know when a vaccine was found for SARS?  They're still working on it, 18 years after SARS.  I don't think epidemics end with cures - I think they end with quarantine.  The key is knowing who to quarantine, which means testing each patient, and everyone they contacted.  With too few tests, the virus spreads faster than testing can keep up.  With excessive testing, the virus gets stopped whenever it finds someone new - them and all their contacts get tested.

So there could be more damage and even bankrupcies ahead.  But I think testing is about to ramp up fast, and turn uncertainty into certainty.  I have to call the bottom before that happens, or markets will take off before I can buy in.  After all, I'm competing with HFT firms at millisecond speeds, so I have to guess earlier than than later.  We'll see...
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: atribecalledquest on March 19, 2020, 02:33:51 PM
Half-ass prediction with very little thought behind it:

With people stuck at home but still in need of things, Amazon will be a great stock to own for the foreseeable future.

Outperform yes but I think its priced in.  People will still shop less because you need money and a job for that and lots of people are losing income. 

Amazon is hiring more workers (same with groceries, Costco, etc)

Has anyone thought about how this virus might be perfectly suited for our times?

Amazon next-day delivery ensures any virus floating around a warehouse gets distributed to 10k homes before it has time to degrade.

Then we are constantly handling our cell phones and keyboards, which makes hand washing a lot less effective if you then go and touch a virus-covered device that hasn't or can't be washed with soap and water. Our devices are a source of constant re-contamination.

I'm already leaving my mail in the mailbox overnight, and picking it up in the morning to give it 12 hours since the mail carrier touched it. Why order anything from Amazon and bring it right into your house?

I've instituted a 5 day cool down period for any packages in my garage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BicycleB on March 19, 2020, 02:57:09 PM
The perfect is the enemy of the good.  Maybe I'm wrong in thinking this is the bottom, but I think it's the point of maximum uncertainty.  If testing ramps up as quickly as claimed by those running it, it could change the virus from uncertainty into certainty - expose exactly who is infected, and allow everyone they contacted recently to be tested.  If that becomes the case, the uncertainty evaporates.  It just becomes which HFT can calculate the new stock values first.

I'll preface by saying we're all in the dark here so I certainly can't claim anything with authority, but what are you reading that makes you think this is the point of maximum uncertainty?  Quite literally overnight the known US cases have nearly doubled and the projections have gone from "could be like this until the summer" to "could be like this for 18 months".  I feel like we are not even at the foot of Mt. Uncertainty right now.  The govt is proposing stimulus mechanisms that make some amount of sense for dealing with a shorter term crisis, but what in the world is $1000 going to do when you can't work for a year?  And now we're seeing bond prices getting hit because (per the analysis anyway) the amount of US debt being discussed, combined with everything else, could actually make US Treasuries a suspect asset for the first time.  It seems improbable - but not impossible - that a month from now we're thinking "well at least we know how this is going to play out, certainty is rising, etc"

Am I crazy?
It may surprise you to learn W.H.O. data on U.S. cases is not useful.  Now you shouldn't believe that from me, so take a look at WHO's situational report from Sunday, March 15.  Pay special attention to the column of "no new cases for the last N days"... it will show "2" days with zero new cases in the United States.  Do you believe there were zero infections between Friday and Sunday in the U.S.?  That's what the WHO data is claiming.  Try comparing their data with several other sources, and hopefully you'll avoid using them for up to the date cases in the U.S.

I'm not sure how to capture all my thinking on this, I'll try to give some context and rough thesis.

Korea handled the crisis with testing and tracking, and is considered to have handled the virus well.  Italians even ignored the lock down after it was in place, continuing to meet up.  Italy's lock down was a mess.  Both countries have universal health care.  Now the U.S. gets hit, and Americans who are struggling will not only avoid visiting the doctor, they need the paycheck and will go to work.  No universal health care, no prior experience.

On March 9 I predicted the U.S. would hit 10,000 cases roughly Mar 20-23, and sold investments owing to my conviction I knew the virus better than the media and markets.  That's risky, but the infectious disease experts were with me - even more pessimistic than me.  So Mar 9 I sold stock, and then again when the market rebounded a couple times later that week.

I planned to sell treasuries after the Fed dropped rates... in a surprise move, they did so on Sunday, instead of waiting 3 days to their usual meeting.  They also unveiled other measures, the sum total of which revealed the Fed was preparing for an event similar to the 2008 crisis.  Markets went limit down (-7%).  I did a little bit of selling treasuries and buying stocks.  Fear ripped into the markets again, with Congress unable to agree on a relief package.  Testing remained inadequate, which hides the true number of cases.

This week, during one press conference, Dr. Deborah Birx talked about testing platforms.  The old platforms tested maybe 10/day, and new ones (in whole? each?) will test millions.  I don't think the company was trying very hard before, but now they don't want to be blamed for a lack of testing.  If they really could test millions a day, that turns a situation like Italy into a situation like Korea.  If you know for certain everyone who is infected, you no longer have uncertainty.

I consider President Trump a troll who baits the media.  But he also uses "wishful thinking" to make a claim, which is really an order for people to carry out.  So when he says "everyone will get tested who wants to get tested", he sounds like a combination of Oprah (You get a car! You get a car!) and Obama (if you like your doctor you keep your doctor).  He wants it to be true... and his re-election is definitely on the line.  So he's very motivated, and he's focused on testing.  I don't trust what he says, but I trust he will fight to get re-elected, and that means testing.

All told, I think everyone will focus on faster testing, and more of it.  In the past ~100 years, the U.S. never had to roll out epidemic testing kits urgently across the whole country.  It will be messy and have glitches.  But if testing can be scaled up to unheard of speeds, then uncertainty will be replaced by certainty.

Do you know when a vaccine was found for SARS?  They're still working on it, 18 years after SARS.  I don't think epidemics end with cures - I think they end with quarantine.  The key is knowing who to quarantine, which means testing each patient, and everyone they contacted.  With too few tests, the virus spreads faster than testing can keep up.  With excessive testing, the virus gets stopped whenever it finds someone new - them and all their contacts get tested.

So there could be more damage and even bankrupcies ahead.  But I think testing is about to ramp up fast, and turn uncertainty into certainty.  I have to call the bottom before that happens, or markets will take off before I can buy in.  After all, I'm competing with HFT firms at millisecond speeds, so I have to guess earlier than than later.  We'll see...

@MustacheAndaHalf, that's a well-reasoned case. No idea whether the specifics are right and of course it's possible to make implementation mistakes, but the logic and timing seem sensible.

I am generally leaning toward stick-to-the-plan simplicity, but credit where credit is due - good stuff, thanks for posting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Steeze on March 19, 2020, 05:47:20 PM
So far I've not sold a thing.  I started at 70/30 stocks/bonds which has me currently at 57/43 stocks/bonds.  I know the normal wisdom is a) don't sell anything when it drops, that'll only lock in losses and b) just keep contributing at your normal schedule and c) when the market is down, buy extra to capitalize on the deals.  But we certainly aren't in normal times so I'm going back and forth on what I should be doing with contributions at this point (I'm still 100% committed to not selling the current holdings, that window is long gone). 

First, I don't see how we can be anywhere near the bottom yet, so it seems premature to burn extra cash reserves to scoop up "good" deals now that will likely not look so good in a month.  In that regard sitting on cash doesn't seem too bad.  Thoughts?

Second, by the numbers above I'm in need of a rebalance currently, but is there really an argument for doing it now if we know almost certainly it'll shift more downward in the coming months?  The more it drops the better of a move the rebalance will be.  I could do it several times along the way but you get maximum results waiting longer in a down trending market.  No?

For the monthly contribution amounts I've been doing since pre crisis, I'm torn between continuing to buy VTSAX and just DCA this thing vs going with VMFXX and waiting till we get much lower to buy in bulk.  What are you all thinking?

If it were me, I would rebalance back to 70/30, then continue to rebalance each time it reached 75/25.
I still have 15% bonds and 10% cash myself - got my finger on the trigger ready to trade all for stocks. Hand is getting shaky now too. So hard not to buy more sooner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Schaefer Light on March 19, 2020, 05:56:26 PM
I have to call the bottom before that happens, or markets will take off before I can buy in.  After all, I'm competing with HFT firms at millisecond speeds, so I have to guess earlier than than later.  We'll see...
I agree with much of your post.  The issue is that no one knows what the bottom will be or when it will happen.  It seems to me that some sort of aggressive dollar cost averaging (i.e. buying more than usual, but at regular intervals) strategy might be best.  My strategy so far has been to buy more VTSAX whenever there's a huge drop, but I don't think it's a sound strategy because it's just a combination of market timing and impulse buying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Zamboni on March 19, 2020, 06:30:43 PM
^Looks like we could be to that number of cases in the US this week . . .

Or >10K cases in a few hours from when I typed that. Sweet Jesus!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: NaN on March 19, 2020, 07:39:12 PM
I found a market timer!! See, folks, it is totally possible to time the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Travis on March 19, 2020, 08:08:45 PM
I found a market timer!! See, folks, it is totally possible to time the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

Quote
Aides to Mr. Burr said that the decision to sell the stocks was a private one, which took place long before the stock market plunged and evidence of a widespread health threat emerged in the United States.

Yes. That's the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 19, 2020, 09:57:19 PM
Or >10K cases in a few hours from when I typed that. Sweet Jesus!
My entire experiment was predicated on the U.S. hitting 10,000 cases.  I predicted it on March 9, about 10 days ago.  But I expect it to hit Friday... and it hit early Thursday.  I also expected "a crisis", and instead there was a crisis every day.  But through all that, surprisingly, I would up doing the most buying right as the U.S. hit 10,000 cases.

Take a look at the headlines - the 10,000 cases isn't even listed.  There's talk of a $1 trillion stimulus package by Congress, mention of Italy having more deaths than China, etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: moneytaichi on March 20, 2020, 12:14:32 AM
So there could be more damage and even bankrupcies ahead.  But I think testing is about to ramp up fast, and turn uncertainty into certainty.  I have to call the bottom before that happens, or markets will take off before I can buy in.  After all, I'm competing with HFT firms at millisecond speeds, so I have to guess earlier than than later.  We'll see...
I doubt that the bottom will be there right after the test is rolling out. As a huge number of people are infected, companies are forced to pause, unemployment rises, less consumption all around, it has to show up at the stocks' bottom lines. I am betting this event is as magnitude as 911, except it's happening to many countries currently. The world economy is so much more inter-waved now than 2001. It will take a long while for the society and the economy to recover. Our lives will be changed forever... Lots of uncertainty even after the test is rolling out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: joleran on March 20, 2020, 06:58:08 AM
Just have all packages flow thru a tunnel of ultraviolet light or something like that which kills viruses.

The bulbs aren't crazy expensive.  UVC germicidal.  Open a large cardboard box and tear off the top flaps.  Line the inside with aluminum foil.  Turn the box upside down, reinforce the center with tape and cut a hole for the bulb to go through.  Put the bulb in the hole and duck tape or similar around the hole so light can't escape.

You now have a box you can drop around mail or other boxes for however long is needed for your bulb rating.  You then need to turn the box over and repeat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 20, 2020, 07:17:55 AM
So there could be more damage and even bankrupcies ahead.  But I think testing is about to ramp up fast, and turn uncertainty into certainty.  I have to call the bottom before that happens, or markets will take off before I can buy in.  After all, I'm competing with HFT firms at millisecond speeds, so I have to guess earlier than than later.  We'll see...
I doubt that the bottom will be there right after the test is rolling out. As a huge number of people are infected, companies are forced to pause, unemployment rises, less consumption all around, it has to show up at the stocks' bottom lines. I am betting this event is as magnitude as 911, except it's happening to many countries currently. The world economy is so much more inter-waved now than 2001. It will take a long while for the society and the economy to recover. Our lives will be changed forever... Lots of uncertainty even after the test is rolling out.
Those are valid points to make.

But this is an election year - what happens if Congress and the President allow mass unemployment?  They're gone, and they know it.  Congress will pass more relief as needed.  They've already got $1 trillion ready, which includes 2 weeks of paid sick leave.  They are going to send out checks to Americans with incomes below $99k as aid (probably with tax relief).

You could be right, but I think Congress will act to stave off unemployment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TomTX on March 21, 2020, 06:11:13 AM
I found a market timer!! See, folks, it is totally possible to time the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

Quote
Aides to Mr. Burr said that the decision to sell the stocks was a private one, which took place long before the stock market plunged and evidence of a widespread health threat emerged in the United States.

Yes. That's the point.

...except he did it AFTER the high level Classified briefings where the best of the intelligence community told him how bad the coronavirus pandemic was going to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 21, 2020, 10:59:01 AM
They are going to send out checks to Americans with incomes below $99k as aid (probably with tax relief).

It starts phasing out at $75,000, so you wouldn't get as much as your income increases above that, and very little towards the upper range.  I don't believe it's really going to help much at all.  People aren't spending much these days even if they have it.  I also think it's crazy to send checks to people that are still working.  It should be directed specifically to those that need it.  My income is too high, so I don't expect much, if any, but that's not my concern now.  It's COVID-19.

Quote
You could be right, but I think Congress will act to stave off unemployment.

They have no magic wand.  They can't stop the virus.  Prepare for hard times ahead, well after the CV19 caseload drops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 21, 2020, 11:14:03 AM
Time to resurrect the WPA and fix/create some great infrastructure, fund a lot of basic scientific research, redirect some military spending to civilian projects, etc.

IMO just dramatically increasing/improving unemployment benefits would be better than helicopter money but maybe that takes too long to accomplish or something.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 21, 2020, 11:46:11 AM
I also think it's crazy to send checks to people that are still working.  It should be directed specifically to those that need it.

There was a nice interview with Neel Kashkari (president of the Minneapolis fed) on Planet Money on Friday (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818583204/episode-982-how-to-save-the-economy-now). He was in the Treasury under Bush and then Obama at the peak of the financial crisis.

Quote
Kashkari: The second lesson is don't worry about targeting your programs. In both the Bush and Obama administrations, and the Congress designed lots of programs to try to help homeowners in 2008 and 2009 avoid foreclosure. But the American people were angry about bailouts, and they said, we don't want our neighbor who was irresponsible getting a bailout. So we had lots of screening criteria. Well, because of all that, very few homeowners actually got helped by all of our programs. And in my opinion, the housing downturn was more severe than it needed to be. We were penny-wise and pound-foolish.

And so today, in the COVID crisis, policymakers should be focused on helping as many businesses and as many workers as possible, not trying to narrowly target who needs - who's deserving and who's not. If we waste time trying to make those distinctions, we're going to be too late.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 21, 2020, 12:15:06 PM
Yeah, this isn't the time for zero-sum-game thinking. Helping people who are out of a job, and fast, is more important than giving a few bucks to someone who doesn't deserve it. The end result looks better for everyone, probably.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TempusFugit on March 21, 2020, 12:19:54 PM
Yeah, that's what I've been reading also, that the cost of trying to tailor the response to certain criteria will make it harder to actually have the positive impact we need.

I'm currently reading Malcolm Gladwell's book What the Dog Saw and one of the essays within is about the cost / benefit of simply providing free housing to the hard core worst of the worst homeless population.  It seems to be the most effective and actually lowest cost by far solution, but no one from either end of the political divide can really stomach the idea of 'rewarding' the worst actors. 

Similarly, the idea of sending money to people who don't need it is a hard thing to sell, but in the end it could be the best of a bad set of choices simply for the transparency and speed with which it could be done.  We can't afford to be too clever here.

One hopes that any of us who may be fortunate enough that we aren't in dire straights during this meltdown might take any largess we receive from Uncle Sam and redirect it to people who do need it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 21, 2020, 12:40:50 PM
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 21, 2020, 12:49:04 PM
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."

But that's not what is being done.  If your income in 2018 was above $75,000, it will phase out the stimulus amount, and then you get nothing with an income above $99,000.  That's not equal.  So, if you're not going to be equal, at least direct it to the people who are losing their jobs, not people who are still working earning $75,000, and partially to $99,000.  2018's income isn't going to indicate how poorly people are doing today, anyway.  Someone could have made over $100,000 then and be unemployed now and wouldn't qualify for the stimulus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 21, 2020, 12:55:29 PM
IMO just dramatically increasing/improving unemployment benefits would be better than helicopter money but maybe that takes too long to accomplish or something.
-W

Yes, that would certainly be better than distributing checks to people who are still working.  It's not going to be distributed equally to everyone, anyway, based on the thresholds for phasing out based on 2018 income, so we might as well use a more logical target for the stimulus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 21, 2020, 01:09:19 PM
IMO just dramatically increasing/improving unemployment benefits would be better than helicopter money but maybe that takes too long to accomplish or something.
-W

Yes, that would certainly be better than distributing checks to people who are still working.  It's not going to be distributed equally to everyone, anyway, based on the thresholds for phasing out based on 2018 income, so we might as well use a more logical target for the stimulus.

Sure, but the question is whether that for some reason is harder/slower to do. That's the argument I've heard made here and I have no particular experience to argue for or against that.

Honestly, if I ran the circus, I'd probably do both. This is essentially a war, fairness is something we can worry about later.

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 21, 2020, 01:39:09 PM
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."

But that's not what is being done.  If your income in 2018 was above $75,000, it will phase out the stimulus amount, and then you get nothing with an income above $99,000. That's not equal.  So, if you're not going to be equal, at least direct it to the people who are losing their jobs, not people who are still working earning $75,000, and partially to $99,000.  2018's income isn't going to indicate how poorly people are doing today, anyway.  Someone could have made over $100,000 then and be unemployed now and wouldn't qualify for the stimulus.

I agree with you that the proposal from the senate republicans doesn't treat people equally.

But I would argue the solution is one that does treat people equally (and, as a result, also ensures everyone who has lost their job will receive a check regardless of their 2018 income).

It ensures no one who desperately needs it falls through the cracks and it can be put into place a lot faster. And as Radagast pointed out, it avoids the moral hazard of targeted bailouts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 21, 2020, 01:39:55 PM
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."

But that's not what is being done.  If your income in 2018 was above $75,000, it will phase out the stimulus amount, and then you get nothing with an income above $99,000.  That's not equal.  So, if you're not going to be equal, at least direct it to the people who are losing their jobs, not people who are still working earning $75,000, and partially to $99,000.  2018's income isn't going to indicate how poorly people are doing today, anyway.  Someone could have made over $100,000 then and be unemployed now and wouldn't qualify for the stimulus.
I would tend to agree with that. I was thinking more along the lines of student loans, mortgages, and airline bailouts; because what about people who paid off their loans, did not need them, or did not go to school; people who rent, or paid off their house; airlines that stockpiled cash instead of buying shares to enrich their wealthiest owners? Those are cases where I would say "screw 'em, distribute the money equally and let people live with their choices."
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Villanelle on March 21, 2020, 01:54:38 PM
Basing the stimulus on 2018 money may be the best we can do on a tight timeline, but it seems like simply adding something that says you get a check now but if your 2020 return shows income over $75,000, you will have to pay it back.  So people still working through this crisis will have gotten in interest-free loan, and those not working will have gotten a bit of money to help them weather the storm. 

And perhaps something saying that if you didn't get a check because you were making too much and you lose your job, you can apply (ideally via UA, in most cases) to get that check.  And same rules apply--if you end up making over $75k/$100k in the year anyway, you will have to pay back some/all of the money when you file in 2021 for the 2020 year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 21, 2020, 01:57:11 PM
Plenty of people currently working are losing hours.  They could easily lose their jobs in a month.  They could be furloughed without pay.  They might not be spending on consumer goods but they need food and rent/mortgage payments

Put me in the camp of sending everyone a check.  We need serious lockdown to slow the spread of this virus and we need serious economic relief for everyone as a result of the lockdown.  Lockdown will be far less effective if people do not get economic relief

I dont care if we send a bit of extra money to billionaires.  They are going to have to pay it back in the end via taxation
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 21, 2020, 01:58:43 PM
Basing the stimulus on 2018 money may be the best we can do on a tight timeline, but it seems like simply adding something that says you get a check now but if your 2020 return shows income over $75,000, you will have to pay it back.  So people still working through this crisis will have gotten in interest-free loan, and those not working will have gotten a bit of money to help them weather the storm. 

And perhaps something saying that if you didn't get a check because you were making too much and you lose your job, you can apply (ideally via UA, in most cases) to get that check.  And same rules apply--if you end up making over $75k/$100k in the year anyway, you will have to pay back some/all of the money when you file in 2021 for the 2020 year.

I do think thats what is being proposed.  Either way they are making complicated what doesnt need to be.  Even if we need an income cap just send everyone the checks now and pay it back at the end of the year if you made too much
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: YYK on March 21, 2020, 02:20:31 PM
Do you know when a vaccine was found for SARS?  They're still working on it, 18 years after SARS.

The impression I got from a couple of different mentions was that the SARS vaccine was largely forgotten after the outbreak subsided, so I hope it's a problem of attention/funding and not a problem of physical possibility. It seems like this time there's plenty of interest in ensuring a vaccine is deployed as soon as possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: TempusFugit on March 21, 2020, 03:47:02 PM
Vaccine development is hugely expensive and not particularly profitable, so yes, i think they simply stopped active work on it after it fizzled out. 

Im beginning to think we are overreacting to this and that the economic impact from shutting everything down is going to be worse than the virus.  I hope thats true, because the economic consequences are going to be incredible.

From some of what I've read, it seems that more basic measures taken individually, primarily hygiene habits and a little more awareness of what were doing around other people will have a huge impact on the transmission rates of this disease.  South Korea and Taiwan didn't shut everything down, but they've kept the rate of infections pretty low. 

Once we get testing really ramped up, which we are finally starting to do, we should be able to identify and contain much more effectively.  Certainly it is important for the particularly vulnerable to avoid contact with people right now, but to impose these restrictions on everyone for an indefinite period of time is probably worse for us as a society than the alternative.  That doesn't mean it isn't or wont be very very bad, just that the impact of these social distancing actions if maintained for any significant length of time may be much worse. 

I think that as a society, we will see that for a couple of weeks people will go along with it, especially if the numbers and impact are truly as bad as some are predicting, but by weeks 3 or 4  I think the basic character of the American people will force an end to the shutdowns.  Too many peoples lives will be turned upside down by job losses and general lack of social contact. 

For myself, i am trying to do the right thing and limit contact beyond grocery shopping and take out food occasionally, while we wait and see what happens in the next week or 2, but after just a single week of this, i can see how compliance is going to start faltering quickly.

It seems like a cruel thing to say, and i dont mean it harshly because i have loved ones who are older and vulnerable to this thing, but our nation (talking about the US) has for decades now enacted policies that have the effect of transferring lots of wealth from the young to the old in the form of entitlements.  This could be perhaps the most extreme example of forcing a sacrifice on the young to protect the old.  If we cause a new Great Depression with the response to this virus we could ruin a generation of our citizens financially primarily to protect the generation that has arguably already had the greatest run of favored treatment our society has ever known.

I am not saying we shouldn't do everything reasonable to protect all of our citizens, but there must be some point at which we say that the cost is too much to bear.  Losing our democracy and fundamentally changing our way of life, the things that we have gone to war for, is too high a cost.  Is that exaggeration? How will this play out if the government starts trying to coerce these lockdowns on a large scale?  What happens if the idea of postponing elections becomes a game played by the people in power?  We could be on a slippery slope toward a police state.  Im not saying thats around the corner or even a likely outcome, but I think it shows that yes there really is a point where most of us would say, no, thats too much to sacrifice for too few.   If we see actual real numbers of unemployment next month I think it will shock us and make even more of us question these responses. 

I hope that were right around the corner from a breakthrough treatment, and that this experience will actually have some positive effects on a society that has been fracturing because of tribalism and, frankly, a lack of any common struggle to unite us.  We may find that we are a much more kind and generous people than we realized and begin to heal the rifts that have been developing for the past 30 years.  This may, in short, all turn out to be a very well disguised blessing in the long run.  It could also turn very dark if we react in ways that are disproportionate to the threat.  I don't blame anyone for what we have done so far, i just think we have to reevaluate very soon. 

This post ran on a bit, i realize and got a little off topic of the investment thread but dammit, I've been sitting alone in my house for a week!   Im not right in the the head. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 21, 2020, 04:15:10 PM
From some of what I've read, it seems that more basic measures taken individually, primarily hygiene habits and a little more awareness of what were doing around other people will have a huge impact on the transmission rates of this disease.  South Korea and Taiwan didn't shut everything down, but they've kept the rate of infections pretty low. 

Both countries had the twin advantages of:

1) Deploying testing early, when it is still logistically feasible to trace and quarantine+test all the contacts of people who test positive for the virus.

2) Enough PPE, and a culture that promotes everyone wearing it. Taiwan in particular started building new fabrication lines for face masks as soon as news broke in China, had the general public lining up to weekly rations of face masks. In the USA we're told not to wear face masks to free up supplies for hospitals.

It's true surgical masks don't do a great job of protecting an individual from infection, but face masks on infected individuals do a lot to protect everyone else around them, and if everyone wears a mask whenever they go out in public, that will include those already infected.

Quote
Once we get testing really ramped up, which we are finally starting to do, we should be able to identify and contain much more effectively.  Certainly it is important for the particularly vulnerable to avoid contact with people right now, but to impose these restrictions on everyone for an indefinite period of time is probably worse for us as a society than the alternative.  That doesn't mean it isn't or wont be very very bad, just that the impact of these social distancing actions if maintained for any significant length of time may be much worse. 

Unfortunately, in the US we are now well past the point where it is logistically possible to trace and quarantine folks who have been in contact with those already infected with the virus. We're up to almost 25,000 people who have tested positive in the USA even with most states only testing people sick enough to need hospitalization. About 20% of people infected with the coronavirus end up in the hospital, so the true number of people infected might be 100,000-125,000. If each of those people can into contact with only 10 people a day (some of them doubtless many more, just riding a subway car once a day would be several X that number), and was infectious for a week prior to being tested, that is 7-8.75M people to identify, locate, and quarantine.

That's why the talk has switched from prevention to simply slowing down the spread. 

Quote
I am not saying we shouldn't do everything reasonable to protect all of our citizens, but there must be some point at which we say that the cost is too much to bear.  Losing our democracy and fundamentally changing our way of life, the things that we have gone to war for, is too high a cost.  Is that exaggeration? How will this play out if the government starts trying to coerce these lockdowns on a large scale?  What happens if the idea of postponing elections becomes a game played by the people in power?  We could be on a slippery slope toward a police state.  Im not saying thats around the corner or even a likely outcome, but I think it shows that yes there really is a point where most of us would say, no, thats too much to sacrifice for too few.   If we see actual real numbers of unemployment next month I think it will shock us and make even more of us question these responses. 

I agree that I am not willing to sacrifice our democracy to stop a virus. I was talking to a friend in China who said: "Chinese value life, while the west values freedom."

I think though that you need to be careful about conflating economic impacts and political impacts. The difference between the two isn't one of degree, they are completely different types of things.

Could someone try to use the lockdown as an excuse to end elections? It's certainly possible and if it happens I don't think americans will go along with it. But I think we're more willing than you might guess to bear economic loss (as opposed to loss of political freedom) when people are scared for their lives and/or the lives of their family members.

This post ran on a bit, i realize and got a little off topic of the investment thread but dammit, I've been sitting alone in my house for a week!   Im not right in the the head. 

Makes complete sense. I was still at work yesterday, although I don't know when I'll ever get to go back outside at this point. A week is already a really long time.

Are you at least able to keep in touch with friend/family electronically? We humans aren't wired for prolonged social isolation (although a small number of people seem to thrive in it).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Travis on March 21, 2020, 05:20:58 PM
I found a market timer!! See, folks, it is totally possible to time the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

Quote
Aides to Mr. Burr said that the decision to sell the stocks was a private one, which took place long before the stock market plunged and evidence of a widespread health threat emerged in the United States.

Yes. That's the point.

...except he did it AFTER the high level Classified briefings where the best of the intelligence community told him how bad the coronavirus pandemic was going to be.

I think we're arguing the same point. The part I bolded was his staff's excuse for why what he did was okay. I was pointing out that that's the reason it may have been illegal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 21, 2020, 05:37:43 PM
It seems like a cruel thing to say, and i dont mean it harshly because i have loved ones who are older and vulnerable to this thing, but our nation (talking about the US) has for decades now enacted policies that have the effect of transferring lots of wealth from the young to the old in the form of entitlements.  This could be perhaps the most extreme example of forcing a sacrifice on the young to protect the old.  If we cause a new Great Depression with the response to this virus we could ruin a generation of our citizens financially primarily to protect the generation that has arguably already had the greatest run of favored treatment our society has ever known.

I am not saying we shouldn't do everything reasonable to protect all of our citizens, but there must be some point at which we say that the cost is too much to bear.

Older people paid into those entitlement programs all of their lives, and they are getting less benefit every year when adjusting for inflation and taxes.  Compare that to government pensions and healthcare subsidized heavily by taxpapers.

The illness is worse on average for older people, but lately, there's been more news about large numbers of younger people being hospitalized as well as them getting critical illness.  So, this is for you and many younger people as well.

"New data from the CDC suggest that adults of all ages can suffer severe COVID-19 disease. The data show that 20% of deaths were in US patients aged 20-65, and 20% of hospitalized patients in the United States were between 20 and 44 years old, as reported by MDedge on Medscape."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/coronavirus-age-victims/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 21, 2020, 05:57:37 PM
Does anyone else like to go back to page 1 and read the early comments?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 21, 2020, 06:13:32 PM
Does anyone else like to go back to page 1 and read the early comments?

Going all in on hazmat suit manufacturers

(https://i.imgur.com/NhOyye3_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)

Not a bad call (no I havent changed my allocations)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 21, 2020, 06:16:26 PM
Does anyone else like to go back to page 1 and read the early comments?

Going all in on hazmat suit manufacturers

(https://i.imgur.com/NhOyye3_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)

Not a bad call (no I havent changed my allocations)

Haha...  should have pulled the trigger!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Reader on March 21, 2020, 07:14:48 PM
From some of what I've read, it seems that more basic measures taken individually, primarily hygiene habits and a little more awareness of what were doing around other people will have a huge impact on the transmission rates of this disease.  South Korea and Taiwan didn't shut everything down, but they've kept the rate of infections pretty low.

They had multiple lessons - SARS, H1N1, MERS. It would be a huge cultural shift to the Americans and Europeans for some of these habits - no handshakes, no pats on the back, no air kisses or pecks on the cheek, no hugging of strangers. in short, no bodily contact with people you're not intimate to begin with. wearing masks as the norm rather than an anomaly.

Work culture and worker protections would also have to change - no showing up at work even if you're feeling ill, more WFH to prevent people who have the sniffles from turning up in the office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 21, 2020, 09:03:13 PM
So anyone here have the rona yet?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: waltworks on March 21, 2020, 09:08:07 PM
So anyone here have the rona yet?

Well, I'm sick (and so is my wife and 7 month old) but who knows? They're only testing people who are in pretty bad shape, though in a few more days there might be enough tests that I could get one. Not sure there's any point - we're keeping the whole family away from everyone else/self quarantining anyway. Thus far it's just like a moderate cold (which could quite well be what it is). 

Several friends in town have confirmed cases and are self-isolating. We're unhappily at the epicenter of Utah's outbreak (Park City, which as of 2 weeks ago was crowded with tourists from all over the world).

-W
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 21, 2020, 09:19:38 PM
So anyone here have the rona yet?

Well, I'm sick (and so is my wife and 7 month old) but who knows? They're only testing people who are in pretty bad shape, though in a few more days there might be enough tests that I could get one. Not sure there's any point - we're keeping the whole family away from everyone else/self quarantining anyway. Thus far it's just like a moderate cold (which could quite well be what it is). 

Several friends in town have confirmed cases and are self-isolating. We're unhappily at the epicenter of Utah's outbreak (Park City, which as of 2 weeks ago was crowded with tourists from all over the world).

-W

Fair enough, I had a very mild sore throat and cough a while back and in general I was getting hyper aware of how I was feeling despite there still being tons of other viruses and pollens out there right now.  I dont think it was the covid (I still isolated) but I wonder if they will be widely using the antibody test once production ramps up.  My latest understanding is that asymptomatic and truly mild cases are not common (media reported a lot of mild cases but that was a clinical definition of mild not what a layperson would call mild.... for me it was on the border of is my throat dry from the cold weather/furnace?)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Travis on March 21, 2020, 10:05:35 PM
So anyone here have the rona yet?

Well, I'm sick (and so is my wife and 7 month old) but who knows? They're only testing people who are in pretty bad shape, though in a few more days there might be enough tests that I could get one. Not sure there's any point - we're keeping the whole family away from everyone else/self quarantining anyway. Thus far it's just like a moderate cold (which could quite well be what it is). 

Several friends in town have confirmed cases and are self-isolating. We're unhappily at the epicenter of Utah's outbreak (Park City, which as of 2 weeks ago was crowded with tourists from all over the world).

-W

Fair enough, I had a very mild sore throat and cough a while back and in general I was getting hyper aware of how I was feeling despite there still being tons of other viruses and pollens out there right now.  I dont think it was the covid (I still isolated) but I wonder if they will be widely using the antibody test once production ramps up.  My latest understanding is that asymptomatic and truly mild cases are not common (media reported a lot of mild cases but that was a clinical definition of mild not what a layperson would call mild.... for me it was on the border of is my throat dry from the cold weather/furnace?)

Last month I was in Daegu two days before the church outbreak that accelerated the spread here. A week after that my son had a fever. It only lasted a couple days and went away, but that was a long weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: shinn497 on March 22, 2020, 12:29:02 AM
Who here still in the market? Who here is buying MOAR? Ride the roller coaster baybee
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 22, 2020, 09:10:02 AM
Who here still in the market? Who here is buying MOAR? Ride the roller coaster baybee
Still in the market...  Most of us?  I still haven't changed any of my investments as mentioned earlier in the thread.  I'm still expecting the market to drop further as I've been saying all along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: HuskieJoe on March 22, 2020, 09:31:12 AM
I havent changed anything.  Watching the value of my wife and my 401(k), Roths, and taxable accounts go down with the market, and continuing dollar cost averaging about $4k / month into pretax and after tax 401k.  Also recently did a backdoor Roth IRA conversion, so I have some more cash to dollar cost average into the market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 24, 2020, 04:41:04 PM
Well, there was a pop in the S&P 500 today, and it didn't quite drop low enough for me to rebalance.

But I know this will be short-lived, and we will see recent lows soon reappear dropping even lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: moneytaichi on March 24, 2020, 10:54:30 PM
Well, there was a pop in the S&P 500 today, and it didn't quite drop low enough for me to rebalance.

But I know this will be short-lived, and we will see recent lows soon reappear dropping even lower.
Agree. I have put some limit order for VTI dropping to $105. Today's closing price is $122.53, and yesterday is $111.91
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 24, 2020, 11:06:30 PM
Well, there was a pop in the S&P 500 today, and it didn't quite drop low enough for me to rebalance.

But I know this will be short-lived, and we will see recent lows soon reappear dropping even lower.

How low do you think we go?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Villanelle on March 25, 2020, 02:48:21 AM
Still in the market?  Of course.

I've changed nothing including monthly automatic investing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: vand on March 25, 2020, 03:13:42 AM
Anybody who knows that we are going lower - or higher - over the next days, weeks and even months is, to put it bluntly, full of crap.

True Investors will be focussing on what they think the market can realistically deliver over the next 10 years. Speculators either wishing to get in or out of the market will be agonising if we land on heads or tails over the next few coinflips.

If there is one thing that I've learnt it is that the markets tend to reward those who show humility and patience, and have a way of humbling those who are overconfident, and shortchanging those who are impatient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Zoot Allures on March 25, 2020, 07:53:18 AM
Coming to this thread rather late, but I'll chime in. I'm not planning to touch my 401k money for ~15 years, and was at an 80/20 AA (total stock/bond markets) before the shit hit the fan. I've had some cash sitting idle since selling my house last year and hadn't yet decided what to do with it, so in recent days I opened a brokerage account and bought some equities. I bought when the market was 20% down and again at 30%. I'll probably buy more, but I'm not looking to time the bottom or any such nonsense. I'm also going to keep a much larger emergency fund for a while than I would normally be inclined to have.

I rebalanced my 401k to 80/20, but am wondering if I might as well go 100% equities until the market claws its way back into the black. I had decided on 80/20 several years ago to smooth the ride a little. I'm not sure that's as important when we're in a severe downturn and the only direction to go (eventually) is up. What would others do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: VaCPA on March 25, 2020, 08:33:39 AM
I have a pretty large emergency fund. Probably not as big as some people on the really conservative side might say I need, and a lot more than others would say I should keep in cash earning virtually nothing. I do live in a high COL area though. I'm not really changing anything with my 401k since most of it is in the Vanguard target date fund, so it's pretty much set & forget for me.

I was going to put $5k lump sum into my backdoor Roth this year and I'm also putting in $4000/year into my son's 529 on a monthly basis. The main thing this situation might affect for me is the timing of those deposits. I'm thinking of making the deposit for the Roth soon while the market is way down and also making a lump sum deposit into the 529 instead of continuing to do it monthly. I was going to open another 529 for my other son next year but thinking of doing that now too.

I'm tempted to take more of my cash and buy stock but don't think I'll do that. We're already maxing out the contribution amounts in my wife's ESPP so already have a small amount of skin in the stock market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 25, 2020, 09:55:09 AM
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 25, 2020, 10:29:29 AM
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

I wrote a 10 put options on SBRA, a nursing home REIT with COVID-19 outbreaks and a 16% yield. Unfortunately, the stock rallied, I was not assigned, and I only made $1,000 on the deal. THAT'S reaching for yield.

(/crocodile dundee voice)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 25, 2020, 10:40:06 AM
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

3.77%! Equivalent to 4.8% for me. For "cash" that is high yield, but probably temporary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: maizefolk on March 25, 2020, 10:42:36 AM
Exactly. Municipal Money Market yield is up a ridiculous amount, although it is backward looking at the last 7 days so not sure if the Fed's extraordinary action in the last couple of days has already driven the yields back down.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 25, 2020, 11:10:05 AM
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

3.77%! Equivalent to 4.8% for me. For "cash" that is high yield, but probably temporary.

We're talking VMSXX, right? Upon searching a few more sites I'm getting conflicting info on the yield:

Vanguard: 3.77% https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX)
MarketWatch: 1.32% https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vmsxx (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vmsxx)
TD Ameritrade: 1.32% https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=VMSXX (https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=VMSXX)
Bloomberg: 0.97% https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VMSXX:US (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VMSXX:US)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on March 25, 2020, 11:36:38 AM
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

3.77%! Equivalent to 4.8% for me. For "cash" that is high yield, but probably temporary.

We're talking VMSXX, right? Upon searching a few more sites I'm getting conflicting info on the yield:

Vanguard: 3.77% https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX)
MarketWatch: 1.32% https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vmsxx (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vmsxx)
TD Ameritrade: 1.32% https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=VMSXX (https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=VMSXX)
Bloomberg: 0.97% https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VMSXX:US (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VMSXX:US)
Yup. Vanguard site is updated daily, and has been creeping up from 2.1% after Friday when I made the change. All of their muni MM funds have been doing that, and others as well I believe, so it's not a mistake. Two of your sources were last updated February 29.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BicycleB on March 25, 2020, 01:29:39 PM
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

I wrote a 10 put options on SBRA, a nursing home REIT with COVID-19 outbreaks and a 16% yield. Unfortunately, the stock rallied, I was not assigned, and I only made $1,000 on the deal. THAT'S reaching for yield.

(/crocodile dundee voice)

LOL, mate
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MoMoneyFewerProblems on March 25, 2020, 01:47:10 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.
Late reply, but this guy gets it!
I raided my emergency fund.  Investing more when the markets on a fire sale is an emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 25, 2020, 03:04:50 PM
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

I wrote a 10 put options on SBRA, a nursing home REIT with COVID-19 outbreaks and a 16% yield. Unfortunately, the stock rallied, I was not assigned, and I only made $1,000 on the deal. THAT'S reaching for yield.

(/crocodile dundee voice)

LOL, mate

I see youve played markety optiony before
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Steeze on March 25, 2020, 04:06:37 PM
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.
Late reply, but this guy gets it!
I raided my emergency fund.  Investing more when the markets on a fire sale is an emergency.

Yup, VTSAX at 33% off is a damn emergency in my book.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Travis on March 25, 2020, 05:15:39 PM
Email title from Personal Capital:

"You can't control the news, but you can control your finances."

Bullshit. I can do both at the same time.



Deletes email without opening it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 25, 2020, 09:52:28 PM
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

Did I just miss the bottom call by 3 days? Or am I super influential and the last 3 days have been you all buying in?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 25, 2020, 11:37:44 PM
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

Did I just miss the bottom call by 3 days? Or am I super influential and the last 3 days have been you all buying in?

Sorry I only listen to Thorstach
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on March 26, 2020, 01:26:50 AM
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

Did I just miss the bottom call by 3 days? Or am I super influential and the last 3 days have been you all buying in?

30% unemployment in the next month will create a new bottom. Time to 100% yolo stocks and watch the money burn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 26, 2020, 03:16:32 AM
Yup, VTSAX at 33% off is a damn emergency in my book.
The sale lasts until people start buying!
Literally owing to popular demand, VTI (Vanguad Total Stock Market ETF) is now just -25% off.
https://etfdb.com/etf/VTI/#performance
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vti/performance
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 26, 2020, 11:12:10 AM
Yup, VTSAX at 33% off is a damn emergency in my book.
The sale lasts until people start buying!
Literally owing to popular demand, VTI (Vanguad Total Stock Market ETF) is now just -25% off.
https://etfdb.com/etf/VTI/#performance
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vti/performance

I might have caught the bottom for my wifes extra cash by sheer luck.  We will see if it goes lower. Y gut tells me its not over yet but I also dont tule the market except on a very basic level for fun (rarely profit) eg trying time grab an intraday low

Of course I want to do a little TLH and missed the best opportunity so far because I was too lazy to get it done
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 26, 2020, 03:24:55 PM
The S&P 500 never dropped quite low enough for me to rebalance, and now it's way too high for me to rebalance.  I'll just keep holding off until I think it reaches a realistic value considering the economic downfall and long recovery that we are headed for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Huskers1 on March 26, 2020, 04:29:41 PM
First off let me qualify what I have done so far  with , I'm no expert and as a result of what I have and have not done so far through this crisis feel I may change my plan to manage my ownmoney.

I retired in January. Over the past year I swithed my investments to a 60/40 stock bond split. I have a strong  cash position in my porfolio.

Here is what i've have done so far.

1. I  pulled one entire 401K out of play the first week of this mess. Closing it down and moving it  to Vangaurd- it's not back in play yet
2. I have another  401K , still in the employer plan:  I pulled the bond mix and moved to cash when the bond market started to tank. strengthened by positions in the mid ,large, S&P 500, emerging markets options . I did this by pulling the retirement date investments for 2015 - 2020
3. I started buying stocks and found i did not have the stomach for it.

I left my other investments in the market . 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BicycleB on March 26, 2020, 08:35:43 PM
The S&P 500 never dropped quite low enough for me to rebalance, and now it's way too high for me to rebalance.  I'll just keep holding off until I think it reaches a realistic value considering the economic downfall and long recovery that we are headed for.

I once thought "rebalance" implied that an investor chose a permanent target % of various investments, so that rebalance meant mathematically adjusting the % to the target.

By "rebalance", do you mean that you change the target whenever you think the relative value of investments has changed, and then adjust your investments to match your new guess?

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: better late on March 26, 2020, 09:15:33 PM
Got a big check and mailed it in to pay off our 401k loan. Seemed like the right thing to do while markets are cheaper. Used some unexpected money from reimbursed room and board from kids university closing dorms. We would have had to pay the loan off by the end of the year in all cases (or earlier if we lost that job) so we didnt see much downside to deploying cash now.. Paychecks will be bigger now that the loan is finally paid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on March 28, 2020, 10:09:13 AM
The S&P 500 never dropped quite low enough for me to rebalance, and now it's way too high for me to rebalance.  I'll just keep holding off until I think it reaches a realistic value considering the economic downfall and long recovery that we are headed for.

I once thought "rebalance" implied that an investor chose a permanent target % of various investments, so that rebalance meant mathematically adjusting the % to the target.

By "rebalance", do you mean that you change the target whenever you think the relative value of investments has changed, and then adjust your investments to match your new guess?

I've read that you shouldn't rebalance immediately when the AA gets out of whack and that portfolios actually do worse when rebalanceing frequently, so I'm just holding off while the market is doing some heavy zigging and zagging rather than a reflex action of rebalanceing due to short term market fluctuations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 28, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
The S&P 500 never dropped quite low enough for me to rebalance, and now it's way too high for me to rebalance.  I'll just keep holding off until I think it reaches a realistic value considering the economic downfall and long recovery that we are headed for.

I once thought "rebalance" implied that an investor chose a permanent target % of various investments, so that rebalance meant mathematically adjusting the % to the target.

By "rebalance", do you mean that you change the target whenever you think the relative value of investments has changed, and then adjust your investments to match your new guess?

I've read that you shouldn't rebalance immediately when the AA gets out of whack and that portfolios actually do worse when rebalanceing frequently, so I'm just holding off while the market is doing some heavy zigging and zagging rather than a reflex action of rebalanceing due to short term market fluctuations.

Historically they do better rebalancing infrequently.  But that just means historically long term volatility is greater than short term volatility.  In the past week of 5-10% daily asset swings, one might have done very well with high frequency rebalancing.  Brokerages are making this easier now, some can do it with a click of a button
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BicycleB on March 28, 2020, 02:38:31 PM
The S&P 500 never dropped quite low enough for me to rebalance, and now it's way too high for me to rebalance.  I'll just keep holding off until I think it reaches a realistic value considering the economic downfall and long recovery that we are headed for.

I once thought "rebalance" implied that an investor chose a permanent target % of various investments, so that rebalance meant mathematically adjusting the % to the target.

By "rebalance", do you mean that you change the target whenever you think the relative value of investments has changed, and then adjust your investments to match your new guess?

I've read that you shouldn't rebalance immediately when the AA gets out of whack and that portfolios actually do worse when rebalanceing frequently, so I'm just holding off while the market is doing some heavy zigging and zagging rather than a reflex action of rebalanceing due to short term market fluctuations.

Dragoncar is probably right, but so far in practice I'm with you - avoiding too many rapid moves seems safe to me. Realistically, I'm listening and learning re the speed of rebalancing.

But my question is: Are you maintaining the same target %? Or are you changing your target %?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: sehr on March 28, 2020, 04:57:28 PM
Our 401k is automatically investing like usual, but I have a lump of cash I'm trying to move into the market and have set a bunch of limit orders cascading downward starting about 10% - 15% lower than they are now in various index funds. I think we're all still in denial and things are going to get a lot uglier, but then again I've made some mistakes trying to move in about 10% of that lump of cash so far. Hopefully I'll lucky and buy some bargains.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 28, 2020, 06:14:47 PM
The S&P 500 never dropped quite low enough for me to rebalance, and now it's way too high for me to rebalance.  I'll just keep holding off until I think it reaches a realistic value considering the economic downfall and long recovery that we are headed for.

I once thought "rebalance" implied that an investor chose a permanent target % of various investments, so that rebalance meant mathematically adjusting the % to the target.

By "rebalance", do you mean that you change the target whenever you think the relative value of investments has changed, and then adjust your investments to match your new guess?

I've read that you shouldn't rebalance immediately when the AA gets out of whack and that portfolios actually do worse when rebalanceing frequently, so I'm just holding off while the market is doing some heavy zigging and zagging rather than a reflex action of rebalanceing due to short term market fluctuations.

Dragoncar is probably right, but so far in practice I'm with you - avoiding too many rapid moves seems safe to me. Realistically, I'm listening and learning re the speed of rebalancing.

But my question is: Are you maintaining the same target %? Or are you changing your target %?

FWIW Ive personally been very slow and havent rebalanced yet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: moneytaichi on March 28, 2020, 09:49:59 PM
A thought-provoking and sobering article talking about how Coronavirus can evolve and end:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 28, 2020, 11:38:01 PM
I rebalance often because I want my portfolio to reflect the risk I've picked.  If I let it drift for a year, the stock percentage would go up, and that would lead to a higher expected return.  What's actually going on is a "60% stocks" portfolio is being allowed to run between 60-64% stocks, so it's really a 62% portfolio over the year.  Meanwhile a portfolio rebalanced monthly would stick much closer to the actual 60%.

I returned to 70-75% stocks on March 19-20, and then over this week have gradually moved into the market.  So my portfolio as of Friday, March 27 was 100% equities.  I can't predict what happens after testing catches up, so I will hopefully stop market timing and just wait at 100% stocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Lady Stash on March 30, 2020, 02:10:51 PM
I rebalanced my 401k to 80/20, but am wondering if I might as well go 100% equities until the market claws its way back into the black. I had decided on 80/20 several years ago to smooth the ride a little. I'm not sure that's as important when we're in a severe downturn and the only direction to go (eventually) is up. What would others do?

Quote from: BicycleB
But my question is: Are you maintaining the same target %? Or are you changing your target %?

Now that the market is down 20%-30%, I am being more aggressive with my AA.  It feels less risky to me to buy in now than it did a couple months ago at the end of a long bull run.

I got lucky with my Asset Allocation (AA) going into this.  I usually keep around 80% stocks/20% bonds but in December, I quit my job so my AA was more conservative than usual while I wasn't working.  I went into this mess with about 60% stock, 30% bonds, 10% cash. 

I've been buying stocks all the way down.  Every time the market drops 5% I move another 5% over to stocks.  By the bottom (so far) on March 23, I reached 75% stocks, 22% bonds and 3% cash.  My plan (if the market keeps dropping) is to slowly work up to about 90% in stocks. 

I'm pretty optimistic that the market is going to recover in the next few years.  We may even have seen the worst of it already.  Sure the market could tank another 30% but I think that's a lot less likely now than it was 3 months ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Telecaster on March 30, 2020, 05:57:10 PM
Here's what I'm doing:  Nothing.   

I'm in about 95% stocks.  I sleep like a baby. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 30, 2020, 06:07:35 PM
Here's what I'm doing:  Nothing.   

I'm in about 95% stocks.  I sleep like a baby.

Im only down 12% at this point.  I do sleep very well but still worry about the economy when awake.  I guess thats why I need a conservative AA
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: talltexan on March 31, 2020, 07:51:32 AM
I found a market timer!! See, folks, it is totally possible to time the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

Quote
Aides to Mr. Burr said that the decision to sell the stocks was a private one, which took place long before the stock market plunged and evidence of a widespread health threat emerged in the United States.

Yes. That's the point.

I was so angry when that news first broke.

But--imagine a 60-year old man came to you in Feb., and he said, "It's just getting so high, and I know I'm only going to have this job another two years; I think I'm going to take some money off the table."--would you have thought he was that weird?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: BicycleB on March 31, 2020, 09:18:34 AM
Sold brokerage fund (80% stock 20% bonds - VASGX) for a couple months' expenses. Earlier than normal for personal reasons, though the recent rise in S&P 500 made it easier to pull the trigger.

IIRC, this is the first sale since FIRE where (2014) where there was a loss instead of gain. If conditions remain the same through the rest of the year, it would cause me to increase the size of my late-in-the-year transfer from traditional 401k to Roth. I need positive income to retain ACA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dreadmoose on March 31, 2020, 10:09:05 AM
Being of sound mind and body I am doing the same thing I always do.

Investing all money I don't require every friday (Business collects weekly) into the same AA that I have always had.

If I had changed anything it would be breaking my IPS, and the back studies and investment math does NOT change when the market tanks over a month so there is no basis to change my IPS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on March 31, 2020, 04:15:21 PM
I found a market timer!! See, folks, it is totally possible to time the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

Quote
Aides to Mr. Burr said that the decision to sell the stocks was a private one, which took place long before the stock market plunged and evidence of a widespread health threat emerged in the United States.

Yes. That's the point.

I was so angry when that news first broke.

But--imagine a 60-year old man came to you in Feb., and he said, "It's just getting so high, and I know I'm only going to have this job another two years; I think I'm going to take some money off the table."--would you have thought he was that weird?

Of course not.  Now if he mentioned privileged intelligence briefings he would have my attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: PDXTabs on March 31, 2020, 04:25:43 PM
If only legislators were required to put all of their holdings into blind trust, this wouldn't be an issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on April 01, 2020, 09:10:13 PM
Another limit order went through today, putting me (at the time) $12,000 of my target $40,000 back into stocks. In theory I should do that at every week end by setting a market order, but last week ended so high that I just let the order ride. But at this rate I will buy on my normal Friday schedule this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: talltexan on April 03, 2020, 04:45:45 AM
If only legislators were required to put all of their holdings into blind trust, this wouldn't be an issue.

I think they should have some kind of joint fund, something like a Vanguard Wellesly (40% stock, 60% gov't bonds) mix, and--when you join Congress--you have to sell every fucking thing you own except your primary residence and buy into that fund. I'm sure they could create a network of wealthy donors who could help with this in the short term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on April 03, 2020, 06:54:12 AM
If only legislators were required to put all of their holdings into blind trust, this wouldn't be an issue.

I think they should have some kind of joint fund, something like a Vanguard Wellesly (40% stock, 60% gov't bonds) mix, and--when you join Congress--you have to sell every fucking thing you own except your primary residence and buy into that fund. I'm sure they could create a network of wealthy donors who could help with this in the short term.

Or just make them all invest in the TSP.

Of course that doesn't avoid the fact that the family members of so many corrupt politicians (but I repeat myself) become wealthy by using that same insider access and influence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Crease on April 03, 2020, 07:06:45 AM
Continuing to max out deferrals into the Vanguard Target Retirement 2050 Fund. And ignoring market news. Thanks to this community and the recommended reading, I am a lot less stressed than I would have been just a few years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 03, 2020, 07:38:43 AM
If only legislators were required to put all of their holdings into blind trust, this wouldn't be an issue.

I think they should have some kind of joint fund, something like a Vanguard Wellesly (40% stock, 60% gov't bonds) mix, and--when you join Congress--you have to sell every fucking thing you own except your primary residence and buy into that fund. I'm sure they could create a network of wealthy donors who could help with this in the short term.

Good idea. Heres another thought. If you want to be president, VP, a member of Congress, or sit on the Supreme Court, you must publicly declare every last dollar of your assets and publish your last 5 years of taxes for all to see and analyze. Any assets found to be undeclared after a certain point in an election can be seized by the federal government. Audits are done annually, and for 5 years after leaving ones position (in case future bribes were agreed to).

I think the risks of corruption justify this move. It would run off many of the dishonest people who steal in the easiest way possible- by cheating on their taxes. It would also open up national politics to the upper middle class, who could argue they are most like their constituents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on April 03, 2020, 01:35:36 PM
If only legislators were required to put all of their holdings into blind trust, this wouldn't be an issue.

I think they should have some kind of joint fund, something like a Vanguard Wellesly (40% stock, 60% gov't bonds) mix, and--when you join Congress--you have to sell every fucking thing you own except your primary residence and buy into that fund. I'm sure they could create a network of wealthy donors who could help with this in the short term.

Or just make them all invest in the TSP.
If only legislators were required to put all of their holdings into blind trust, this wouldn't be an issue.

I think they should have some kind of joint fund, something like a Vanguard Wellesly (40% stock, 60% gov't bonds) mix, and--when you join Congress--you have to sell every fucking thing you own except your primary residence and buy into that fund. I'm sure they could create a network of wealthy donors who could help with this in the short term.

Good idea. Heres another thought. If you want to be president, VP, a member of Congress, or sit on the Supreme Court, you must publicly declare every last dollar of your assets and publish your last 5 years of taxes for all to see and analyze. Any assets found to be undeclared after a certain point in an election can be seized by the federal government. Audits are done annually, and for 5 years after leaving ones position (in case future bribes were agreed to).

I think the risks of corruption justify this move. It would run off many of the dishonest people who steal in the easiest way possible- by cheating on their taxes. It would also open up national politics to the upper middle class, who could argue they are most like their constituents.
Very much agree with these.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Radagast on April 03, 2020, 01:40:32 PM
In other news I bought more stocks today. I'm now $16,000 / 4 weeks into my $40,000 / 10 week program. (approximately).
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: effigy98 on April 03, 2020, 04:06:14 PM
Starting buy some KOL on downdays. These companies are debt free, pay huge dividends, and are very undervalued because they are anti fad stocks (coal is evil). Coal is not going away as an energy source.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 04, 2020, 06:29:46 AM
Roths were already maxed earlier this year. My wife's 401k contributions are on auto-pilot. We are also building cash stockpile (it's currently almost a year of expenses) so that we'll never be in a situation where we feel forced to sell low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: American GenX on April 04, 2020, 01:29:29 PM
The S&P 500 never dropped quite low enough for me to rebalance, and now it's way too high for me to rebalance.  I'll just keep holding off until I think it reaches a realistic value considering the economic downfall and long recovery that we are headed for.

I once thought "rebalance" implied that an investor chose a permanent target % of various investments, so that rebalance meant mathematically adjusting the % to the target.

By "rebalance", do you mean that you change the target whenever you think the relative value of investments has changed, and then adjust your investments to match your new guess?

I've read that you shouldn't rebalance immediately when the AA gets out of whack and that portfolios actually do worse when rebalanceing frequently, so I'm just holding off while the market is doing some heavy zigging and zagging rather than a reflex action of rebalanceing due to short term market fluctuations.

Dragoncar is probably right, but so far in practice I'm with you - avoiding too many rapid moves seems safe to me. Realistically, I'm listening and learning re the speed of rebalancing.

But my question is: Are you maintaining the same target %? Or are you changing your target %?

My target is the same as it was at this point.  I do plan to increase my equity AA long term as part of a rising equity glide path.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: FrugalSaver on April 04, 2020, 02:52:30 PM
Starting buy some KOL on downdays. These companies are debt free, pay huge dividends, and are very undervalued because they are anti fad stocks (coal is evil). Coal is not going away as an energy source.

Now that takes some guts. Oil and natural gas dont even get allowed under the global warming alarmist and media propaganda. Coal is lowest in that totem pole. Best of luck

Ive been buying alternative energy individual stocks as they get the media benefit of the doubt. Even TSLA with all their planet earth destroying of rare assets for batteries is looked the other way because...electricity (which will overwhelmingly come from natural gas and coal for decades to come but doesnt matter)

Meanwhile XOM traded to lows not seen since the merger in the 90s and yields over 10%
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 06, 2020, 12:41:40 PM
Over the weekend, growth in new COVID-19 cases fell so far, that Sunday had fewer new cases than Saturday.  In Europe, the death rate is falling, which is also good news.  Overall, an optimistic outlook for COVID-19 ending earlier than expected, without millions infected.  But people need to stay indoors, away from each other, or the effort at social distancing will be wasted.  But right now, it seems to be working.

Over the weekend, I looked at various scenarios of how leverage impacts losses.  Much like a business losing money, if you don't cut costs the whole operation goes under.  Same with investing using leverage.  Per my weekend planning, I'm now holding 118% stocks / -18% bonds.

Right now markets are about -20% down YTD.  I'm guessing some of the recovery will be quick, as people see success in defeating the virus through testing and social distancing.  But then, how do people restart the economy without triggering new outbreaks?  I expect some delays and confusion there, but I'm hopeful the recovery takes months rather than years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: AdrianC on April 07, 2020, 06:03:50 AM
Over the weekend, growth in new COVID-19 cases fell so far, that Sunday had fewer new cases than Saturday.  In Europe, the death rate is falling, which is also good news.  Overall, an optimistic outlook for COVID-19 ending earlier than expected, without millions infected.  But people need to stay indoors, away from each other, or the effort at social distancing will be wasted.  But right now, it seems to be working.
Millions are still going to be infected.
Quote
Over the weekend, I looked at various scenarios of how leverage impacts losses.  Much like a business losing money, if you don't cut costs the whole operation goes under.  Same with investing using leverage.  Per my weekend planning, I'm now holding 118% stocks / -18% bonds.
That's a gutsy move. How do you get -18% bonds?
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: talltexan on April 07, 2020, 06:34:13 AM
leverage.

Taking on a debt position that is roughly 1/6 of the long position in risky stocks
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: vand on April 07, 2020, 06:38:15 AM
Over the weekend, growth in new COVID-19 cases fell so far, that Sunday had fewer new cases than Saturday.  In Europe, the death rate is falling, which is also good news.  Overall, an optimistic outlook for COVID-19 ending earlier than expected, without millions infected.  But people need to stay indoors, away from each other, or the effort at social distancing will be wasted.  But right now, it seems to be working.
Millions are still going to be infected.
Quote
Over the weekend, I looked at various scenarios of how leverage impacts losses.  Much like a business losing money, if you don't cut costs the whole operation goes under.  Same with investing using leverage.  Per my weekend planning, I'm now holding 118% stocks / -18% bonds.
That's a gutsy move. How do you get -18% bonds?

He's not. He's in fantasy land where he thinks that selling 18% of your position is the same thing as going short by 18%. lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 07, 2020, 08:46:32 AM
Over the weekend, growth in new COVID-19 cases fell so far, that Sunday had fewer new cases than Saturday.  In Europe, the death rate is falling, which is also good news.  Overall, an optimistic outlook for COVID-19 ending earlier than expected, without millions infected.  But people need to stay indoors, away from each other, or the effort at social distancing will be wasted.  But right now, it seems to be working.
Millions are still going to be infected.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. for the last 3 days is: 33.8k, 26.6k, 29.0k.  With 29k cases per day it takes 3 weeks to reach 1 million cases, let alone more.  And the growth has been steadily declining.

Should millions stay at home and keep social distancing, yes - it's working.  People should be afraid of millions of cases, like you mention.  But by predicting it, experts can convince people to avoid that outcome.


Over the weekend, I looked at various scenarios of how leverage impacts losses.  Much like a business losing money, if you don't cut costs the whole operation goes under.  Same with investing using leverage.  Per my weekend planning, I'm now holding 118% stocks / -18% bonds.
That's a gutsy move. How do you get -18% bonds?
By opening a margin account, and buying on margin.  Existing equities act as collateral for the margin loan.  Most brokerages offer margin loans - but they are expensive.  I'm prepared to keep margin for 2 years, but I hope to only need it for months.

I am only using margin to invest for the recovery.  If I'm wrong, and stocks fall more than I expect, I will taper off my margin account (paying it off).  If I'm right, and stocks recover, I'll also taper off as stocks near recovery levels.

The best margin rates are at Interactive Brokers, but it's a very risky strategy that can lead to -100% loss of not just the loan, but all of your investments.  It's very important to accept losses, and pay off the loan if the markets take a turn for the worse.


He's not. He's in fantasy land where he thinks that selling 18% of your position is the same thing as going short by 18%. lol.
In case you missed it when I corrected you earlier:
"A short, or a short position, is created when a trader sells a security first with the intention of repurchasing it or covering it later at a lower price."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: vand on April 07, 2020, 09:01:01 AM
Long
Flat
Short
Hedged

are all different things that you seem to be purposely mixing up to try convincing us that you know what you are doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: VaCPA on April 07, 2020, 09:02:01 AM
Long
Flat
Short
Hedged

are all different things that you seem to be purposely mixing up to try convincing us that you know what you are doing.
You're giving him a lot of credit assuming he's doing it on purpose
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: AdrianC on April 07, 2020, 11:52:16 AM

Over the weekend, I looked at various scenarios of how leverage impacts losses.  Much like a business losing money, if you don't cut costs the whole operation goes under.  Same with investing using leverage.  Per my weekend planning, I'm now holding 118% stocks / -18% bonds.
That's a gutsy move. How do you get -18% bonds?
By opening a margin account, and buying on margin.  Existing equities act as collateral for the margin loan.  Most brokerages offer margin loans - but they are expensive.  I'm prepared to keep margin for 2 years, but I hope to only need it for months.

I am only using margin to invest for the recovery.  If I'm wrong, and stocks fall more than I expect, I will taper off my margin account (paying it off).  If I'm right, and stocks recover, I'll also taper off as stocks near recovery levels.

The best margin rates are at Interactive Brokers, but it's a very risky strategy that can lead to -100% loss of not just the loan, but all of your investments.  It's very important to accept losses, and pay off the loan if the markets take a turn for the worse.
Sure, we all get how margin works. Saying you're -18% bonds is a bit confusing. I expected it to be a HELOC or some such.

Best of luck, and keep us posted. Like I say, it's a gutsy move. Not one that I would ever do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on April 07, 2020, 06:30:15 PM
Seems like hes saying hes short compared to his previous position.  But when people talk about short they are talking about net position
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 08, 2020, 12:13:51 AM
To be clear, let me correct that previous description and put it this way:
118% stocks
   0% bonds
-18% margin loan


vand - In another thread you contradicted me and said a short position only exists with negative market exposure.  I quoted a definition twice showing you are wrong.  Now you're listing words I didn't use, rather than quoting me.  If you're not putting words in my mouth, quote my usage of the other terms you listed.

AdrianC - See above.  If things recover, or go worse than expected, I will unwind my leverage and accept the gain or loss.

dragoncar - See above.  A "short position" can refer to part of a portfolio, which was the topic of another thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: dragoncar on April 08, 2020, 01:18:56 AM
To be clear, let me correct that previous description and put it this way:
118% stocks
   0% bonds
-18% margin loan


vand - In another thread you contradicted me and said a short position only exists with negative market exposure.  I quoted a definition twice showing you are wrong.  Now you're listing words I didn't use, rather than quoting me.  If you're not putting words in my mouth, quote my usage of the other terms you listed.

AdrianC - See above.  If things recover, or go worse than expected, I will unwind my leverage and accept the gain or loss.

dragoncar - See above.  A "short position" can refer to part of a portfolio, which was the topic of another thread.

Interesting which thread?

IMO you are short cash not bonds because your liability is denominated in dollars.  Unless you actually borrowed bonds and sold them to finance the stock position (i.e. a covered short).  But then your assets would be:

118% stocks
-18% bonds (because you have a liability in bonds not cash)
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 08, 2020, 08:34:50 AM
dragoncar - The earlier thread was titled: how do you short?

And I agree I should not have used negative bonds, above, to represent the margin amount.  Your example of showing negative cash is a better approach (it's also how it's displayed in my margin account)  So this might be more accurate:

118% stocks
   0% bonds
-18% cash
Title: Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 12, 2020, 11:11:10 AM
I've got additional changes with my investments, but plan on posting updates in a new thread I created:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/data-driven-investing/