Author Topic: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?  (Read 50244 times)

Gone Fishing

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #50 on: January 28, 2020, 06:00:26 PM »
I'm in my drawdown phase.  I'm also reducing my (excessive?) exposure to Emerging markets (asia heavy).  I went ahead and sold off enough for 6 months or so vs my usual one month at a time.  Got about the same price as I got in December, 5% off of last week's peak.  No worries...

Oops, rebounded .89% today.  Oh, well...

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #51 on: January 28, 2020, 08:06:11 PM »
@Simpli-Fi - I check for a chance to rebalance more often than I should, yes.  But I meant that I'd delay rebalancing for this entire week, and only check on Monday.

I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.
Just curious... will you buy next week no matter what?  Regardless of the # of cases, death reports,  if it has spread more beyond China/Asia, what the market is doing, or anything else?

Or is there something that might cause further delay, and if so, have you clearly defined that for yourself?
Meaning on Monday I plan to check my asset allocations, and buy/sell to bring things back into balance.  But one caveat: I'm really waiting for a news frenzy over hitting 10,000 confirmed cases.  If that happens Friday, I might rebalance then.
 Sometimes I feel like there's obvious information, but the news media just doesn't get it.  So I'm waiting for them to be shocked by 10,000 cases.

---
Just a note on masks: in theory, regular surgical style masks aren't useful.  But it's very good practice to avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.  Because people wearing masks find it awkward to rub their nose or mouth, a mask actually helps improve behavior.  So in practice, people wearing masks touch their nose and mouth less, and so any mask actually helps.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #52 on: January 29, 2020, 12:17:05 AM »


Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

Actually, dust masks are ineffective against viruses. Mask-wearing is essentially a form of superstition unless you are using expensive N95 medical masks and changing them every couple of hours. Hand washing, a healthy diet, and exercise are about the only things that will protect a person who is otherwise vulnerable to this specific pathogen.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1

"Luckily" I have a ton of P95 leftover/in anticipation of summer wildfire smoke.  They are not really that expensive.  Makes doing a lot of housework more bearable too (sanding, cutting wood, painting, dusty yard work, etc.).  Good to have on hand even if you aren't a dedicated prepper (don't pay panic prices though)

I probably wouldn't even wear one if there are cases reported near me.  I can't remember the last time someone actually coughed in my face (in which case I'd also need to wear goggles!).  More important to wash hands and just avoid crowds.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #53 on: January 29, 2020, 11:09:14 AM »


Even if you don't do anything on your investment, you should consider buying some face masks and stock up some medicion and food. It seems to be common sense. Good luck!

Actually, dust masks are ineffective against viruses. Mask-wearing is essentially a form of superstition unless you are using expensive N95 medical masks and changing them every couple of hours. Hand washing, a healthy diet, and exercise are about the only things that will protect a person who is otherwise vulnerable to this specific pathogen.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-face-masks-not-entirely-effective-2020-1

"Luckily" I have a ton of P95 leftover/in anticipation of summer wildfire smoke.  They are not really that expensive.  Makes doing a lot of housework more bearable too (sanding, cutting wood, painting, dusty yard work, etc.).  Good to have on hand even if you aren't a dedicated prepper (don't pay panic prices though)

I probably wouldn't even wear one if there are cases reported near me.  I can't remember the last time someone actually coughed in my face (in which case I'd also need to wear goggles!).  More important to wash hands and just avoid crowds.

True, they are not expensive nor do you have to change them every few hours. I use them regularly in a regulated work environment.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #54 on: January 29, 2020, 07:17:50 PM »
While the media say things like "Coronavirus Explodes in China" (NY Times) or point out that there's more cases than SARS (USA Today), I have reason for optimism.  For the past 2 days, the Coronavirus has slowed it's rate of spread.  It's now spreading at +30% / day (versus +50% / day): 4500 -> 6000 -> 7700

I'm rebalancing on Friday if the market drops over 1%, otherwise I'll wait for Monday (maybe I'll rebalance both days?)  In theory I might do nothing - no buy/sell - if my portfolio is completely in balance.  Right now international is below it's allocation, so I expect to buy more international equities (selling either US equities or bonds).

Dicey

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #55 on: January 30, 2020, 05:41:08 AM »
I thought you put the lime in the coconut?
You drink them both together.

DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #56 on: January 30, 2020, 06:06:54 AM »
What are the chances that Corona is actually losing sales right now? They're owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev, so it's not like the parent company is going to hurt.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #57 on: January 30, 2020, 07:26:37 AM »
What are the chances that Corona is actually losing sales right now? They're owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev, so it's not like the parent company is going to hurt.



I'm buying the dip.

Simpli-Fi

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #58 on: January 31, 2020, 07:51:16 AM »
@Simpli-Fi - I check for a chance to rebalance more often than I should, yes.  But I meant that I'd delay rebalancing for this entire week, and only check on Monday.

I'm delaying this week's rebalance by one week.  That's my timing decision: ~1% of my portfolio buying in one week late.

The news still doesn't reflect my prediction of 10,000 cases by the weekend, nor that current temperature-based screening methods aren't enough to stop the spread of the virus.  Yesterday (above post) I predicted 3000 cases would turn into 4500 cases, and here we are at 4515 cases.  I think people watching the news over the weekend will be stunned by the number of cases, and sell even more on Monday.  They need someone buying, so I'll be there to help.  :)

Other than delaying a rebalance, I'm not doing anything else.
Just curious... will you buy next week no matter what?  Regardless of the # of cases, death reports,  if it has spread more beyond China/Asia, what the market is doing, or anything else?

Or is there something that might cause further delay, and if so, have you clearly defined that for yourself?
Meaning on Monday I plan to check my asset allocations, and buy/sell to bring things back into balance.  But one caveat: I'm really waiting for a news frenzy over hitting 10,000 confirmed cases.  If that happens Friday, I might rebalance then.
 Sometimes I feel like there's obvious information, but the news media just doesn't get it.  So I'm waiting for them to be shocked by 10,000 cases.

---
Just a note on masks: in theory, regular surgical style masks aren't useful.  But it's very good practice to avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.  Because people wearing masks find it awkward to rub their nose or mouth, a mask actually helps improve behavior.  So in practice, people wearing masks touch their nose and mouth less, and so any mask actually helps.

Nailed it again

Rdy2Fire

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #59 on: January 31, 2020, 08:00:51 AM »
First thing I'd say is it's worse then being reported.. They claim 10K cases and about 200 dead but China is lying about the numbers just like they did with SARS. These numbers will rise

Second in regards to investing, if you're an investor then you leave your money where it is, maybe shift a little if you think you need to but this has nothing to do with Coronvirus. The markets have been doing so well for the last year or three that if you're in them you're still ahead and unless you NEED the money out, the long term tells us you will be fine.

Although this week has been a rougher then normal week (at least for me) and today is going to be bad, hang in there and hold on for the ride.. Matter of fact you might want these to be your next investment

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #60 on: January 31, 2020, 09:10:51 AM »
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #61 on: January 31, 2020, 09:57:17 AM »
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)

Tell people that a disease from China has been detected in a few people in the US and **might** kill a few thousand globally and it's front-page news for weeks.

Ask them to get a flu shot because it *literally* kills tens of thousands in the US and over a quarter-million globally each year and people can't be bothered.

 

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #62 on: January 31, 2020, 10:12:20 AM »
@nereo,

I have my flu shot. Also, I'm not sure that's unreasonable since the flu mortality rate is typically ~0.1% and the 2019-nCov mortality rate is currently estimated ~4%.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #63 on: January 31, 2020, 10:41:34 AM »
Since we're at ~9700 cases, and the market has dropped, I did half my rebalancing today.  For all of my international allocations, I bought enough to bring me halfway back to my asset allocation.  On Monday, I'll do the rest (if needed).

Last weekend the virus cases were growing at +50%/day, and now it's closer to +25%/day.  When you see online news saying that cases are "exploding" (France 24), that's not accurate.  You can look up yesterday's number of cases (7700) and divide today's cases by yesterday's: 9700 / 7700 = 1.26, meaning +26% new cases.  A better term for what's happening is "slowing".  The rate of growth is slowing, which suggests measures to control the spread are having an impact.

To quote myself from Monday, Jan 27, earlier in this thread:
> It couldpass 10,000 cases by the end of the week, which I'm guessing will cause more panic.

Does anyone know of a source (TV, online news) that predicted 10,000 cases by this weekend?
(Not today - now it's trivial!  But several days ago)

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #64 on: January 31, 2020, 10:58:11 AM »
@MustacheAndaHalf,

Those are confirmed cases, I would direct you here and here. Especially the exponential graph on the NYT piece.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #65 on: January 31, 2020, 12:00:54 PM »
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)

Tell people that a disease from China has been detected in a few people in the US and **might** kill a few thousand globally and it's front-page news for weeks.

Ask them to get a flu shot because it *literally* kills tens of thousands in the US and over a quarter-million globally each year and people can't be bothered.

Imagine when the Wuhan virus starts killing a few hundred Americans a day! At that point, itll be almost as bad as that other virus nobody cares about, and the media barely reports.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #66 on: January 31, 2020, 12:05:46 PM »
@nereo,

I have my flu shot. Also, I'm not sure that's unreasonable since the flu mortality rate is typically ~0.1% and the 2019-nCov mortality rate is currently estimated ~4%.
\

Just meant as an observation about how people perceive risk.  Currently, the likelihood of contracting and/or dying from the flu is orders of magnitude greater than the corona virus in all but some specific regions of China - yet many people do not take the most fundamental precautions.

Yes, coronavirus is absolutely bad and we should take it seriously to prevent it from becoming a global pandemic.

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #67 on: January 31, 2020, 12:20:58 PM »
Yes, coronavirus is absolutely bad and we should take it seriously to prevent it from becoming a global pandemic.

Yup, I just wanted to add the attached infographic originally sourced from here. I hadn't found it until now.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 12:23:01 PM by PDXTabs »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #68 on: January 31, 2020, 12:47:44 PM »
@MustacheAndaHalf,

Those are confirmed cases, I would direct you here and here. Especially the exponential graph on the NYT piece.
Thanks for sharing those sources.  I haven't seen the rate of spread of coronovirus pictured next to SARS, so that was new.  I think that's a cautionary tale about what happens if coronavirus has another outbreak outside China.  So far, despite dozens of countries confirming cases, there hasn't been an outbreak in a second country.  It's a bit difficult to see if that graph is growing more slowly at the top - does it look smooth and consistent to you?  At first the virus grew +50%, but after ~4500 cases, it slowed and is now closer to +26% / day.

Also, I've changed my view on the virus spreading before symptoms are present.  WHO takes the view it only spreads after someone shows symptoms.  Despite how fast the virus spreads, there haven't been outbreaks in the many countries where cases were detected.  If it was easy to slip through, that would seem unlikely.  Also, quarantine isn't as effective if you don't know who has the virus.  The slowing growth rate also suggests measures are having an impact.

The sad thing is the hospital situation.  I saw an interview a few days ago where a man complained "There are hospitals with virus test kits - but they have no beds.  No room for new patients.  And then there's hospitals who have room, but no virus test kits."  They basically couldn't find anywhere to be diagnosed, and then quarantined.

The second article seems more speculative, saying tourists outside China might be spreading the virus.  So far, there aren't outbreaks outside China.  There's individual cases caught on arrival, and some human to human transmission.  If the virus was spreading 50x faster than is claimed (2k cases vs 100k cases), why is nothing happening outside one region of China?

Early on, it's safe to worry that China might hide data like they did with SARS.  But China has loosened censorship - even allowing people to openly criticize how the government handles the virus.  A co-worker of mine once explained China's government as "When it's good, it's very good.  But when it's bad... it's very bad."  They act decisively, wrong or right.  Right now, it looks like China is doing a better job containing the virus than most countries would - shutting down transportation, celebrations and public gatherings.  Given all the information I have, I think they're telling truthful numbers on the number of cases.  They may have systemic problems with reporting data, but I think they are trying to act in a way that will make Chinese citizens satisfied with their handling of the crisis.

So I don't buy the 100,000 speculative number, and point to the "nearly 10,000 cases" in most news sources as the correct one.  I could be wrong on that, but here more of the data seems to show a lower number.

China is dramatically building hospitals in only ~7 days, from scratch.  Which sounds hard to believe, until you realize how fast China constructs cities from scratch.  Patients wandering around with coronavirus isn't ideal for containing an outbreak... and those new hospitals (2, I think) will help.  Given the lack of outbreaks outside China and the draconian measures used to contain the virus (no buses/planes/subways in Wuhan are running), I'm guessing they will succeed.

So if I'm right on that, an unknown amount of time later the outbreak will be contained, and stocks will return to normal levels.  I buy on Monday to rebalance back to my asset allocation... and then later international surges upwards, and I'll sell to rebalance my asset allocation.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #69 on: January 31, 2020, 01:18:44 PM »
I sold all my stocks in 2017 when my crystal ball correctly foretold that the flu virus was destined to kill 80,00 people in the US in 2017 and 61,200 people in the US in 2018.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/

(Just kidding about selling, but the stats are real)

Tell people that a disease from China has been detected in a few people in the US and **might** kill a few thousand globally and it's front-page news for weeks.

Ask them to get a flu shot because it *literally* kills tens of thousands in the US and over a quarter-million globally each year and people can't be bothered.

Imagine when the Wuhan virus starts killing a few hundred Americans a day! At that point, itll be almost as bad as that other virus nobody cares about, and the media barely reports.

Its not right to say nobody cares about flu.  The medical and public health community is very serious about it.  Far more resources are spent on flu prevention than corona virus.  Its just that this one is novel and therefore scary because we cant predict it.

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #70 on: January 31, 2020, 10:53:46 PM »
To quote myself from Monday, Jan 27, earlier in this thread:
> It couldpass 10,000 cases by the end of the week, which I'm guessing will cause more panic.

Good, job 11,791 confirmed cases in China alone.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #71 on: February 01, 2020, 08:01:06 AM »
Who wants to wager?

I bet the plain ole flu kills more Americans in the remainder of 2020 than the Wuhan virus.

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #72 on: February 02, 2020, 05:33:51 AM »
Quote
I think that means they learned the backlash from their handling of SARS wasn't worth it.

I think its a combination of China deciding its not worth it but also (and probably more important) they concluded that they simply **cant** run a disinformation campaign against an epidemic in todays China society.  While they still keep a tight control over traditional news outlets and have the great firewall its far from ironclad, and you arent going to be able to keep 50MM of your own citizens on lockdown/quarantine while also insisting everything is fine here! Nothing to see, move along.  Reports get out and unsubstantiated rumors (panic!!!) are worse than just providing the truth up front.

Welcome to a [more] free and [more] open society, China!

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #73 on: February 02, 2020, 06:48:17 AM »
@nereo - I've deleted my earlier post, since new information has come to light.  China has begun a crackdown on those talking about the virus - calling it "rumors".  But they arrested a doctor who was working on the front lines.  They're targeting people in a way that suggests they are covering it up.  Unfortunate, but it changes my opinion.

There's two other troubling things.  The day the virus started slowing down?  That was the exact same day China began a new campaign to crack down on people talking about the virus on social media.  I don't like coincidences like that.

The number of cases for the past 3 days (Fri - Sun) is apparently 9700, 11800, 14300.  The growth of +21.6% from Friday to Saturday has turned into +21.1% from Saturday to Sunday.  If accurate, that's bad news - the virus isn't slowing down much at all today.

I'm still going to rebalance on Monday, but the end seems further off than I hoped, based on what I learned today.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #74 on: February 02, 2020, 08:27:46 AM »
@nereo - I've deleted my earlier post, since new information has come to light.  China has begun a crackdown on those talking about the virus - calling it "rumors".  But they arrested a doctor who was working on the front lines.  They're targeting people in a way that suggests they are covering it up.  Unfortunate, but it changes my opinion.

There's two other troubling things.  The day the virus started slowing down?  That was the exact same day China began a new campaign to crack down on people talking about the virus on social media.  I don't like coincidences like that.

The number of cases for the past 3 days (Fri - Sun) is apparently 9700, 11800, 14300.  The growth of +21.6% from Friday to Saturday has turned into +21.1% from Saturday to Sunday.  If accurate, that's bad news - the virus isn't slowing down much at all today.

I'm still going to rebalance on Monday, but the end seems further off than I hoped, based on what I learned today.

Hmm.... intersting developments indeed.  Until today I was cautiously optimistic at the level of transparency that Beijing had on the virus, its extensiveness and with the World Health Organization to help combat the spread. 
If true this is indeed worrying.

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #75 on: February 02, 2020, 10:16:07 AM »
Mortality rate seems low at 2% and most of the deaths are in the elderly. 

In fact, I have my doubts if coronavirus is responsible for most of this minor pullback or not.

Just seems like the market doing what it always does, behaving erratically in the short term but predictably in the long term.


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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #76 on: February 02, 2020, 10:39:25 AM »
In fact, I have my doubts if coronavirus is responsible for most of this minor pullback or not.

Well, in a few hours the Shanghai Stock Exchange will open for the first time in a week (closed for the new year). We'll see what happens then.

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #77 on: February 03, 2020, 10:19:36 AM »
Yeah, I hoped China's government had learned from SARS... sigh.  There's articles from NY Times, Wired and various other sources.  Since "Vice" tends to not pull punches in their reporting, I'll refer to their reporting:
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5xykx/you-can-now-go-to-jail-in-china-for-criticizing-beijings-coronavirus-response

You can also see how China is lashing out at the US, which is denying entry to people who visited China (or the Wuhan region, I forget which).  Many countries in the region (Japan, S. Korea, etc) are doing the same.  Lashing out just makes China seem like it doesn't know what's important: the spread of infection.

Even though markets are moving up today, I said I'd rebalance, so I just completed that.  I don't think it will work out well, because the growth of the virus seems to be stabilizing near +20% a day (according to figures out of China, which are again suspect in my mind).  If the number of cases aren't to be believed, maybe the number who succumb to the virus is likely to be more accurate.  From the Guardian:

"The foreign ministry issued an urgent appeal for protective medical equipment as the total number of casualties reached 361, surpassing deaths in mainland China caused by the 2002-03 Sars virus."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-dozens-more-deaths-chinese-province-centre-outbreak-hubei

Car Jack

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #78 on: February 04, 2020, 08:31:11 AM »
Before the Heineken virus, I was going to take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.

Now, with the Balashi virus all the rage, I will instead take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.

Daisyedwards800

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #79 on: February 04, 2020, 10:43:33 AM »
Over 20,000 cases now.

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #80 on: February 04, 2020, 03:08:49 PM »
Before the Heineken virus, I was going to take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.

Now, with the Balashi virus all the rage, I will instead take my RSUs that vest on the 15th and sell them on the 17th.  Then when the sale settles, buy BRK/b with the money.

Is the US market open on the 17th? I thought it may be closed for Presidents Day. (I also have RSUs that vest on the 15th that I'll be selling.)

Brother Esau

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #81 on: February 04, 2020, 03:33:33 PM »
This seems worse than SARS

Pondering taking action for now


"Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?"

Watching them reach new Tops!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #82 on: February 04, 2020, 11:36:30 PM »
The coronavirus isn't the sole thing determining market performance.  Even in China, after stocks dropped -8%, China's bank began pouring liquidity into the market.  At best, we can predict when things will shock people.... for example, will 50k cases shock people?  1,000 people succumbing to the virus?  Both of those are possible this weekend, at current rates of growth.

You can see a very detailed picture of the virus, delayed by about one day, here on the World Health Organization (WHO) website, where they provide situational reports:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

China has finished construction of a 1000-bed hospital in Wuhan, and did so within 10 days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huoshenshan_Hospital

Although impressive, there's 4,000 new cases in the past day (20k to 24k), so that hospital could be filled up in 6 hours worth of today's cases.  And the rate of growth has been stable since Saturday, when 12k cases were growing at +20% per day.  Since then (5 days), the number of cases have doubled to 24k.  The hospitals will be full quite soon.

I saw a video of a foreigner going to buy groceries in Wuhan.  A city with a larger population than London had empty streets - almost no cars or people.  Some people lined up at a pharmacy, and more people were inside buying groceries.  I haven't heard of China taking any new measures based on data - nothing to counter the +20% per day spread.  I would hope China learns more about how the virus is spreading, and takes measures to reduce the growth further.

So at 24k Wed... 29k Thu.. 35k Fri..   Looks like the number of cases could pass 40k this weekend.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #83 on: February 05, 2020, 08:46:47 AM »
Flu season goes from Oct-Feb each year. By later in the year, warmer temperatures tend to destabilize these types of viruses in the air. This would imply the Wuhan virus panic is a buying opportunity just like bird flu, SARS, etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

Daisyedwards800

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #84 on: February 05, 2020, 09:58:37 AM »
This flu is spreading in places with warm weather.

I am actually shocked that the market hasn't reacted to this news, because it's really bad.

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #85 on: February 05, 2020, 05:56:52 PM »
Musician Zhang Yarus grandmother died on Monday after slipping into a coma. She was repeatedly turned away from the hospital.

John Chen, a college graduate, is desperately seeking help for his mom. She has a high fever, but isnt strong enough to stand in line for hours to be tested for the virus raging through their city.
- Bloomberg: China Sacrifices a Province to Save the World From Coronavirus

So there is a strong disincentive to get counted, at least in the Hubei province, and recently China has been reporting 4K new cases per day. I'm not an epidemiologist but I think that it is safe to say that 2019-nCov is now endemic in the Hubei province. The question in this thread is, what does that mean for our investments?

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #86 on: February 05, 2020, 06:23:41 PM »
I've also read about shortages in testing kits, which would strongly suggest that cases are being underreported.  If they can't test to confirm someone has it, they can't count them as having had it.

Also, this thread makes me feel like shit because I didn't get my flu vax this year.  I called repeatedly several times through October and everywhere near me was out and out and out.  Then life got crazy and I never got back to it. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #87 on: February 05, 2020, 10:40:08 PM »
Here's quotes from a CNN.com article on the Wuhan virus, from today:

"no signs of slowing" .. "number of cases in China grew by 3,694, or 15%"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-death-toll-spike-intl-hnk/index.html

First off, my prior post assumed a +20% growth rate, but it looks like something happened to slice away 1/4th of the growth rate, leaving +15%/day.  And the growth rate just fell for the first time in many days, so my prior numbers don't reflect that information.  I predicted 29k, not 28k, which seems like a small difference - but the percentage growth is not.

Maybe the growth falls still further, averaging +12%?
28k Thu -> 32k Fri -> 37k Sat -> ?over 40k Sun?

That's not much of an increase - it means the number of new cases may drop below the prior day's new cases.  Not sure when, but it's looking more likely.  Maybe investors are counting on the end of flu season, as well.  But if they're watching the news, like CNN, they won't know any of this.

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #88 on: February 06, 2020, 09:10:00 AM »
Here's quotes from a CNN.com article on the Wuhan virus, from today:

"no signs of slowing" .. "number of cases in China grew by 3,694, or 15%"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-death-toll-spike-intl-hnk/index.html

First off, my prior post assumed a +20% growth rate, but it looks like something happened to slice away 1/4th of the growth rate, leaving +15%/day.  And the growth rate just fell for the first time in many days, so my prior numbers don't reflect that information.  I predicted 29k, not 28k, which seems like a small difference - but the percentage growth is not.

Maybe the growth falls still further, averaging +12%?
28k Thu -> 32k Fri -> 37k Sat -> ?over 40k Sun?

That's not much of an increase - it means the number of new cases may drop below the prior day's new cases.  Not sure when, but it's looking more likely.  Maybe investors are counting on the end of flu season, as well.  But if they're watching the news, like CNN, they won't know any of this.

Let me get this straight: you are trying to out predict the CDC and WHO based on summaries given on CNN?

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #89 on: February 06, 2020, 09:17:03 AM »
Let me get this straight: you are trying to out predict the CDC and WHO based on summaries given on CNN?

Sounds about right for this thread. ;-)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #90 on: February 07, 2020, 04:22:56 AM »
Let me get this straight: you are trying to out predict the CDC and WHO based on summaries given on CNN?
If you could quote where you're seeing that, I could better address where I gave you that impression.

I haven't mentioned the CDC in this thread, before now.  I'm not aware of any predictions from WHO or CNN.  I used data from multiple sources, and so far it's always matched WHO's situational reports (a daily summary of cases and locations).  Check WHO's data, and they should match all the raw numbers I've used in this thread.  Take the past two situation reports on WHO's website:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200206-sitrep-17-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=17f0dca_4
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200205-sitrep-16-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=23af287f_4

I normally round the numbers off, but I'll quote the reports.  On Feb 5 there were 24,554 cases worldwide.  On Feb 6 there were 28,276 cases.  Now I divide: 28276 / 24554 = 1.152, or 15% growth.  In one day, cases grew +15%.

Days ago there were +20% new cases per day, for ~4-5 days in a row.  Falling very slowly, if at all.  But now for two days in a row, the growth rate has dropped dramatically.  For today (Fri), I've seen 31k new cases reported by multiple news sources.  That's just +10% growth, the lowest so far.  Compare that to the start of the virus, when it grew +50% per day.  And finally, the news sources seem to be practicing restraint - I don't see terms like "exploding" or "spiking" in the news stories today.



To me, one problem is that CNN doesn't make estimates or predictions.  They seem to just report exciting headlines, but then don't look deeper.  That allows me to predict things before CNN knows what will happen - which I did earlier in this thread.  I predicted 10,000 cases about 4-5 days into the future, and that's what happened - with expected front page news about the surprise of 10,000 cases.

That said, it's looking bad for my prediction for this weekend (over 40k cases).  I used a +12% growth rate, and assumed China hadn't done anything new.  But the past few days have seen growth rate drops: +20% to +15% to +10%.  Even if growth merely holds at +10%, there won't be 40k cases this weekend.  And the number of new cases could slow down further.

Overall, it looks like very good news.  I would expect the virus becomes less and less of a problem over the upcoming week.  That means China's production might start to get back online, and recover.

But investing could be tricky.  China's government has angered it's citizens over its handling of the coronavirus.  I don't know what happens when tens of millions are angry enough to protest, and they all get released back onto the streets at the same time.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 04:33:48 AM by MustacheAndaHalf »

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #91 on: February 07, 2020, 09:12:39 AM »
That said, it's looking bad for my prediction for this weekend (over 40k cases).  I used a +12% growth rate, and assumed China hadn't done anything new.  But the past few days have seen growth rate drops: +20% to +15% to +10%.  Even if growth merely holds at +10%, there won't be 40k cases this weekend.  And the number of new cases could slow down further.

Your math is flawed. The limit of (daily new cases)/(total cases ever) will approach zero, no matter what, because (total cases ever) will grow unbounded.

To put it another way, on 1/20 China reported 48 new cases. On 2/5 China reported 4k new case. That's two orders of magnitude more, not less. It is true that for the last few days new confirmed cases have been holding steady ~4k/day. I'm not sure that is good news (there were a total of 8K SARS cases) and it may just be the limit of their capacity to run test kits.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #92 on: February 07, 2020, 01:48:57 PM »
Some good charts in this article about the seasonality of flu-like viruses, with the expected what if disclaimers.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/spring-may-impact-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/675372

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #93 on: February 07, 2020, 07:14:45 PM »
That said, it's looking bad for my prediction for this weekend (over 40k cases).  I used a +12% growth rate, and assumed China hadn't done anything new.  But the past few days have seen growth rate drops: +20% to +15% to +10%.  Even if growth merely holds at +10%, there won't be 40k cases this weekend.  And the number of new cases could slow down further.
Your math is flawed. The limit of (daily new cases)/(total cases ever) will approach zero, no matter what, because (total cases ever) will grow unbounded.

To put it another way, on 1/20 China reported 48 new cases. On 2/5 China reported 4k new case. That's two orders of magnitude more, not less. It is true that for the last few days new confirmed cases have been holding steady ~4k/day. I'm not sure that is good news (there were a total of 8K SARS cases) and it may just be the limit of their capacity to run test kits.
SARS eventually stopped spreading - the number of new cases approached zero.

These estimates are rather lazy - I'm assuming the entire outbreak can be modeled by looking at the past few days growth in new cases, and estimating the future from that.  It worked fine when the growth rate was constant, under the theory that every existing case has a chance of spreading.

You could be right about coronavirus testing capacity, although I can't find any official figures.  If the capacity is too low, that could be a source of embarrassment for the Chinese government, and they'd probably censor it.  There's numerous stories of people being unable to find a hospital with a test kit.

My original goal was to predict the next exciting news story, which then impacts investments.  Even though China's figures have been questioned by reputable sources such as The Lancet, the WHO and news media are sticking with China's official numbers.  I knew the news would report on 10,000 cases... but now, I'm not really sure what they will report on next.  So my estimates are probably no longer useful in that regard.

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #94 on: February 12, 2020, 07:45:29 AM »
I believe this is the best time to invest and buy and I'm going to buy more

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #95 on: February 15, 2020, 12:29:06 AM »
Here come the headlines again

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #96 on: February 25, 2020, 12:56:13 PM »
So as the markets in the US get hammered for the third day in a row on worries over the impact, I was just reviving this thread rather than starting a new one.

I actually added about 1% to my investment total Monday when things dropped over 1,000 points (order was placed Saturday so just happened to be what happened).  As I write this Dow is down almost another 900 today, so perhaps we will see the first ever two 1,000 point drops in two consecutive days, but in any event likely to not turn around much.

So obviously this has a short term impact, but overall not as if companies are going to disappear because of a virus outbreak, so my assumption is nothing to see here, move along and once the contagion runs its course things will return to "normal".  Do others agree, or have another perspective?  I do not see any changes in fundamentals, just that lots of investors are bailing and moving per the normal reactionary model that drives these types of drops.   If we do get two 1,000 point days might end up in correction territory soon and getting this out of the market's system is also a good thing I would think. 

Reynold

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #97 on: February 25, 2020, 02:05:56 PM »
I'm expecting the market to drop some more, because;

1. People who figured they could just avoid Asia and avoid the problem are now faced with having to avoid Europe as well (vacationers from Italy spreading around the region).  That's a lot of the developed world to avoid, and brings the problem "home" to more people. 

2. While the fatality rate of this is significantly lower than SARs, the combination of very long incubation periods (a recent report was of a 27 day incubation period in one person) and what seems like significantly higher transmissibility means this is going to be very hard to contain. The flu may kill more people, but you aren't required to report to a hospital and stay in quarantine for the flu, the medical system in hard hit areas is really struggling with capacity. 

3. China is a much, much bigger part of the global supply chain, both as a buyer and seller, than it was when SARs hit.  Even if they could get everyone to work in the factories in the affected areas, it will be very hard to get goods in and out.  A lot of companies relying on just in time inventory are going to start being unable to ship products. 

The tough part is going to be calling the market bottom to shift over some cash I have, I think there will be a lot of market whiplash based on medical headlines, which are hard to predict. . . 

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #98 on: February 25, 2020, 02:23:42 PM »
When my employer changed 401k providers, I was switched from a 60/40 balanced fund to a default 90/10 lifecycle fund. This move screwed me over (by about $4400) because they kept me in cash from 1/1 to 1/21, during which time the market went up 3%. Then on 1/21 they put me in the 90/10 fund and the market dropped 3% in the next couple of weeks. But then I made it all back because I held the 90/10 fund through the middle of February as a momentum trade. A week ago, I reallocated to about a 25/75 allocation FTW, just in time for the pandemic panic!

TL;DR:
I got screwed over by a third partys inadvertent market timing, then executed nearly perfect market timing in correcting the issue, coming out ahead in the end.

Pure luck.

caracarn

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #99 on: February 25, 2020, 02:48:20 PM »
Yes, I'm not looking to market time anything, let alone a pandemic.  Was more asking about underlying economic fundamentals shifting in any way, which I do not see how a virus would cause that but just thinking out loud to hear the other thoughts.