Author Topic: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?  (Read 50042 times)

Steeze

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #200 on: March 01, 2020, 01:11:48 PM »
On Friday morning:

Doubled my bi-weekly 401k contribution to $1500 (100% US Stocks)
Cut bi-weekly transfers to my savings account in half
Sold bonds (15.5% down to 14%), traded for US & REITs
Bought 1k each of US/EM/Dev.Int out of savings
Changed weekly auto contributions from 85/15 to 95/5 stocks/bonds

Will look to add to US/EM from cash if markets continue to fall, maybe at -5% increments?
Total stock/bond position is about 220k now.

House is paid off, job is super secure, and have 12 months cash sitting around collecting dust. Would comfortably bring that down to 3-6 months.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #201 on: March 01, 2020, 01:33:53 PM »
You are probably correct about that.  I get frustrated when things are not clear and this was a prime example of letting things wag around too much during a time that people could use clear instruction.  Unfortunately this particular governor is just as likely to declare the long arc of global warming as an emergency and it muddies the use of the word.

I do wish that there was another term or declaration that could be used in anticipation, to minimize anxiety and hysterical reactions.  Maybe something like federal response declaration.  Completely neutral. 

I also wish that every media report would explain the move with a simple sentence or two about its purpose and routine nature.  Such as: as expected, the Governor activated the states response protocol, allowing federal resources to aid state agencies.

I agree: STATE OF EMERGENCY sounds really traumatic, particularly when we havent (and possibly might not) actually reach a true state-wide emergency.

Rubyvroom

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #202 on: March 01, 2020, 01:43:10 PM »
I had invested $5K each into our two Roth accounts in early January, knowing that I'd want to invest the remaining $2K once I had a stable consulting gig. I have said gig now so I invested the remaining $2K Friday. I considered waiting longer but I know I can't call the bottom.

Because I consult, I keep a larger FU fund on hand (~6 months). I had considered investing the excess cash to take advantage of the fire sale and get me down to ~3 months but decided against it. Again, I can't call the bottom, and in a downturn the consultants tend to be the first to go.

Lastly, I checked my total portfolio asset allocation and it had slipped from 90/10 to 87/13. I have a 5% tolerance threshold so I did nothing. I will keep an eye on things and rebalance as necessary.

I definitely spent more shopping this weekend. I stocked up on some staples and other items that won't go bad. I ordered more pet food. I am keeping the pantry more full than empty, but I'm trying not to panic buy (do I really need this CASE OF PURELL hmmm). The store I went to was definitely under stocked for some items as other people were doing the same, but it didn't feel like a panicked level, like I need to keep an eye on my cart or someone will steal my Tylenol level. I'm stocking up so that if stores get to that level, I can stay home. I do still bus to work and I may drive instead. So my expenses may increase temporarily, and that's fine. I feel fortunate that I have the option to drive rather than bus, as not everyone has that choice.

All of the activity has me wanting to act more on investments. I terror check the news daily like everyone else. But I have been (somewhat surprisingly) sticking to my plan. I haven't had this much skin in the game for a real downturn (very young in 2008) so I wasn't sure if I'd have the stomach for it. So far so good. Now off to wash my hands and study up on tax loss harvesting and avoiding wash sales.

Sultan58

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #203 on: March 01, 2020, 01:50:15 PM »
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16.... I was early and feeling bad...til a week ago-----started legging back into S&P index (Vanguard)  with each successive 1000 point drop this past week.....at fridays close I was back to 48% invested.

Now I'm waiting to see if mr market keeps on giving and drops more before I put anymore in. I think its a bit of a gift, but I figure it'll take a month or two more to get arms around the impact on the market.

Close to retirement so I likely wont get too aggressive from here on out.

Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #204 on: March 01, 2020, 01:56:29 PM »
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16.... I was early and feeling bad...til a week ago-----started legging back into S&P index (Vanguard)  with each successive 1000 point drop this past week.....at fridays close I was back to 48% invested.

Now I'm waiting to see if mr market keeps on giving and drops more before I put anymore in. I think its a bit of a gift, but I figure it'll take a month or two more to get arms around the impact on the market.

Close to retirement so I likely wont get too aggressive from here on out.

Are you the one who started a thread about it last year?

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #205 on: March 01, 2020, 02:54:49 PM »
I've done nothing.

My sister was consolidating account and cashed out something from an old job.  It was a bit of a cluster, with a check lot in the mail, then mot resent when it was supposed to be, and other bureaucratic bumbles.  She still doesn't have the check (which she plans to reinvest immediately) but as it turns out, someone's incompetence save/made her a fair amount of money.  (I believe she said the check was near 6 figures.)

Sultan58

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #206 on: March 01, 2020, 03:50:20 PM »
well.....after last years run---I got nervous and pulled all my funds from S&P index on Jan 16.... I was early and feeling bad...til a week ago-----started legging back into S&P index (Vanguard)  with each successive 1000 point drop this past week.....at fridays close I was back to 48% invested.

Now I'm waiting to see if mr market keeps on giving and drops more before I put anymore in. I think its a bit of a gift, but I figure it'll take a month or two more to get arms around the impact on the market.

Close to retirement so I likely wont get too aggressive from here on out.

Are you the one who started a thread about it last year?

nope...dont believe so

ice_beard

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #207 on: March 01, 2020, 04:16:10 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens. 
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 04:18:25 PM by ice_beard »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #208 on: March 01, 2020, 07:02:57 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens.

I was in Costco today as well. There was still TP and since we were almost out, we bought some. Only stuff they were out of was hand sanitizer and that was available at other stores. Saw my first person wearing a mask, but that couldve been because they were sick.

The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.

Vapour

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #209 on: March 01, 2020, 07:14:17 PM »
This seemed like a good opportunity to buy, so I gave myself a few excuses to do so on Friday.  I put an additional $2k in my taxable account into VTSAX.  This will come from checking/savings.  It reduces my EF a little but I know I'll be fine so figured why not.  I've been front-loading my 401k (and then will do mega backdoor) at 50% of my income so haven't been regularly investing into taxable this year.  Unfortunately I got paid last week so nothing going into my 401k this week.  I did take the opportunity to rebalance by exchanging $4k of bonds for stocks in my 401k to get back to 90/10.  Overall, it isn't much, but I have $6k more stocks than I did on Thursday.  I at least felt like I was doing something without taking much risk.  99% of my portfolio is unchanged and I am staying the course.  I realize that stocks may fall much further, but I also know I'm getting at least a 12% discount from last week.

I'm a little surprised at the number of people here talking about selling.  The problem with market timing is that you need to be right twice.  When to get out AND when to get back in.  Stay strong fellow mustachians!  Stay the course!  Pick an asset allocation and stick with it in good times and bad.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #210 on: March 01, 2020, 07:52:40 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens.

I was in Costco today as well. There was still TP and since we were almost out, we bought some. Only stuff they were out of was hand sanitizer and that was available at other stores. Saw my first person wearing a mask, but that couldve been because they were sick.

The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.

I went to a grocery store and a Super Walmart today.  The shelves were full of hand sanitizer, TP, cold meds, pain killers, soup, beans, anything I wanted, except they were down to 1 bottle of 70% alcohol, but they had quite a few of the 91%.  Since we have a case of COVID-19 in my state a couple hours away that is unrelated to travel exposure, I thought there might be more panic, but things looked calm and normal.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #211 on: March 01, 2020, 08:12:03 PM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #212 on: March 01, 2020, 08:21:25 PM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

FrugalSaver

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #213 on: March 01, 2020, 09:13:21 PM »
Im looking for evidence that the number of new occurrences are decreasing in rate of increase. We are near that tipping point.

If this trend continues, based on prior pandemics, buying trigger should be about 10-14 days from now (Id rate of new occurrences continues to dwindle)

This is not something I usually do, so just doing it as an experiment

Premarket down almost 400. Could be up by market open tomorrow. Shes an emotional thing
 

ice_beard

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #214 on: March 01, 2020, 09:38:36 PM »
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss day. 

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #215 on: March 01, 2020, 11:40:21 PM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.

My new mantra

effigy98

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #216 on: March 02, 2020, 12:12:33 AM »
Nice fed bump incoming in the morning probably. If you want to update allocation to more conservative might be a good time. My guess is they will not be able to keep it up thru the bad news and it will be temporary.

KBecks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #217 on: March 02, 2020, 05:40:25 AM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

I braced myself and went to Costco today.... It was busy, but it was Sunday and I always go there on week days, so I can't really tell you if it was busier than a usual Sunday.  The Kirkland brand toilet paper was sold out but there was the much more expensive Charmin, which I bough some of (we were actually nearly out, not panic buying).  They were also out of rice which I was also nearly out of.
I was shocked to see people in line with just a package of bread, or one or two items.  Why in the hell would you subject yourself to the misery of that busy parking lot (I had to wait to get a spot and was very lucky in getting one) and the carnage inside the store for just an item or two??   

Safeway on the way home had a lot of rice on the shelves.  So I think it's not near true panic levels around here.  People are just trying to get a good deal on some extra supplies before any actual panic happens.

I was in Costco today as well. There was still TP and since we were almost out, we bought some. Only stuff they were out of was hand sanitizer and that was available at other stores. Saw my first person wearing a mask, but that couldve been because they were sick.

The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.

For older people and people with weak health, this is a dangerous virus. 

DK

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #218 on: March 02, 2020, 05:45:28 AM »
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM

Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.

TomTX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #219 on: March 02, 2020, 06:33:54 AM »
pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.

Either answer is fine. The spread is enough that it may well be worth going with the 15, but not so much it's OMG GO 15!

What matters more to you? Higher cash flow to invest (30 year) or less interest paid (15 year)?

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #220 on: March 02, 2020, 07:03:01 AM »
pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.
Either answer is fine. The spread is enough that it may well be worth going with the 15, but not so much it's OMG GO 15!
What matters more to you? Higher cash flow to invest (30 year) or less interest paid (15 year)?

As Tom said, either is good. In 30 years, we'll be able to tell you which one was the better option.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #221 on: March 02, 2020, 10:37:56 AM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.

Almost all of my investments are in retirement accounts so it feels much easier not to touch them. It probably helps that I'm a little disconnected from the world as I'm deployed right now. People aren't aren't exactly discussing the stock market. I remember back in the fall of 2008 when I worked in a regular office and hearing people talking about how the DOW had just dropped 700 points (back when it was in the low teens) in a day.

On paper I've "lost" a couple of month's income in about a week. But when my ~$1,200 401k contribution gets invested today, I'm going to be buying what cost me almost $1,400 two weeks ago.

appleshampooid

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #222 on: March 02, 2020, 11:26:19 AM »
Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

Even if you were to continue to pay off your mortgage quickly, it still might be beneficial to refinance. My general rule of thumb is that a refi needs to pay for itself in two years.

My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #223 on: March 02, 2020, 11:36:14 AM »
My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).

Yes, but I hope you shopped around for lenders if you paid $4,500 in closing costs for a refi.

appleshampooid

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #224 on: March 02, 2020, 12:24:27 PM »
My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).

Yes, but I hope you shopped around for lenders if you paid $4,500 in closing costs for a refi.
I did shop around and this compared favorably. $445k balance so large origination fee and paid some points to get down to 2.99%.

Helvegen

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #225 on: March 02, 2020, 12:44:49 PM »
The panic will come in the next week or two as this crud spreads and the media hypes way out of proportion.

I had to go out again shopping and the stores were basically deserted. I guess everyone was out shopping this weekend and then, basically only at Costco. And again at my local Costco, no one was panic buying anything at all. It was busy, but every Saturday or Sunday is a madhouse at Costco. All the stores I went to running errands for our reno project had bleach and whatnot and we are ground zero for the North American problem apparently.

As for the stonk market, I put in my sell order this morning out of my taxable. It turns out that maybe I overestimated my risk tolerance a bit. Good to know, I will now keep a certain cash position from now on. I feel fine with what is left and that is not because the market happens to be doing OK today. I don't care what happens to what I have invested there because now I have a good buffer for me psychologically.

thesis

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #226 on: March 02, 2020, 01:14:01 PM »
I haven't changed anything in my investments. Then again, I keep a decent cash emergency fund. I originally was going to dump my tax return into my investment account, but I'm hesitant to do this because I haven't yet rebuilt my emergency fund to what I prefer (I used part of it to max out my Roth on January 1). Granted, I could still go 8 or 9 months without a job, though without going into too much detail, my current job is likely to earn new clients in the event of a pandemic.

Oooh, that's tough. I could probably dump half of my tax return into VTSAX, given the discount and all. As long as I make it to next paycheck (highly likely), maybe I can dump the whole thing. You can't call the bottom, but you can get a great discount. I really wouldn't mind the recession starting when I'm so early in building my stache, just as long as I and my family can stay employed.

I'm more worried for my parents and grandma. This virus is scary stuff, even if it isn't the end of the world. We've had it pretty soft here in the US, though. And history knows far worse.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #227 on: March 02, 2020, 01:20:26 PM »
My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule.
21 months and $375 saved/month, sweet I meet both of your criteria :).

Yes, but I hope you shopped around for lenders if you paid $4,500 in closing costs for a refi.

Whats the best way to shop around?  Do you guys call all the big banks?  Use a website aggregator?  A broker? 

I think I got a good rate on my original loan but its quite stressful the shipping and haggling.  I wanted to get it closed so went with a big bank but at this point Id be willing to try a smaller lender

Pricing seems pretty opaque without a lot of legwork

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #228 on: March 02, 2020, 01:38:47 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

Interestingly enough I was just at Costco picking up standard items for next week and I was really surprised how empty the shelves were of items.

One of the things we needed was toilet paper and they still had some but they were out of paper towels. An employee was standing in that area telling everyone they were out and hoping to get more in this week and also mentioned they were out of rice, flour, Clorox wipes, and a few other things.

Multiple people shopping were wearing masks, gloves and they had someone wiping shopping cart handles down as they were handing them to people.

As I took my stuff out to the car there was a guy loading a pallet of rice and water into a SUV floor to ceiling full.

My most interesting trip to Costco yet

Very much a regional thing I guess.  Was at Costco on Sunday. I bought TP as we were out. Still plenty to be had. Same with rice and flour. Only thing they were out of was hand sanitizer which was available at other stores.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #229 on: March 02, 2020, 01:59:07 PM »
I think I got a good rate on my original loan but its quite stressful the shipping and haggling.  I wanted to get it closed so went with a big bank but at this point Id be willing to try a smaller lender. Pricing seems pretty opaque without a lot of legwork.

Basically when I got my first mortgage I put in the legwork shopping around. Now, I just use the same guy I went with on the first mortgage (4 loans with him so far). Of course, I still do a quick inquiry with others lenders just to make sure he's staying honest.

nburns

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #230 on: March 02, 2020, 02:00:04 PM »
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss day.

Did you mean gain?

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #231 on: March 02, 2020, 02:08:40 PM »
I think I got a good rate on my original loan but its quite stressful the shipping and haggling.  I wanted to get it closed so went with a big bank but at this point Id be willing to try a smaller lender. Pricing seems pretty opaque without a lot of legwork.

Basically when I got my first mortgage I put in the legwork shopping around. Now, I just use the same guy I went with on the first mortgage (4 loans with him so far). Of course, I still do a quick inquiry with others lenders just to make sure he's staying honest.

So this is a broker or a specific officer at a bank?  Or like an independent investor?

Davnasty

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #232 on: March 02, 2020, 02:12:34 PM »
I originally was going to dump my tax return into my investment account

I'm not sure your brokerage would process it for you, you should probably send it to the IRS :)

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #233 on: March 02, 2020, 02:15:46 PM »
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss 4-1/2% gain day.

Fixed that for ya!


YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #234 on: March 02, 2020, 02:17:35 PM »
So this is a broker or a specific officer at a bank?  Or like an independent investor?

For the first loan, he was loan officer at a regional bank. For loans 2/3 he was at at national home mortgage originator/servicer, and for loan four he's at a local mortgage lender (not servicer).

fattest_foot

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #235 on: March 02, 2020, 02:41:26 PM »
Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

Yeah, I think we had something like $50-60k in some Roth's in 2008. We're at about 10x that now. But I didn't change anything in 2018, and I certainly didn't this time either.

In fact, I even did some quick math. If I had put all of my TSP (about $160k) in treasuries, and somehow correctly called a 20% drop from top to bottom, I would come out $30k ahead. For the amount of risk and just how unlikely I am to be the world's perfect market timer, the upside didn't really seem worthwhile. Now, granted, if I take a big gamble and do all of our accounts, that "upside" goes into the six figures. But seeing how the drops of last week were met with a 5% increase today, it seems like I probably wouldn't market time this correctly.

TheWifeHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #236 on: March 02, 2020, 08:33:40 PM »
Converting some tIRA to ROTH.

DK

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #237 on: March 03, 2020, 05:44:23 AM »
pulled the trigger, have a mtg later today for a refi, still going back and forth on doing a 15yr which dropped to 2.75 and amounts to roughly same monthly pmt or 30yr at 3.25 which frees up a few 100 a month...thoughts from anyone? i know i've read through a couple threads already but am conflicted.

Either answer is fine. The spread is enough that it may well be worth going with the 15, but not so much it's OMG GO 15!

What matters more to you? Higher cash flow to invest (30 year) or less interest paid (15 year)?

i apparently caught the end of a 4 hour window where rates dropped even further yesterday, so went with the 30yr since it dropped to 3%. crazy low rate to me...

Joe Schmo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #238 on: March 03, 2020, 06:44:09 AM »
Not a chance.  Tomorrow is another ~3% loss 4-1/2% gain day.

Fixed that for ya!
Is that why we dont time the market? Asking for a friend :)

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #239 on: March 03, 2020, 06:50:15 AM »
i apparently caught the end of a 4 hour window where rates dropped even further yesterday, so went with the 30yr since it dropped to 3%. crazy low rate to me...

Damn, well done. What's even crazier is that there's only about 1% difference between your loan rate and the interest rates at some FDIC insured banks.

thesis

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #240 on: March 03, 2020, 08:23:08 AM »
I originally was going to dump my tax return into my investment account

I'm not sure your brokerage would process it for you, you should probably send it to the IRS :)

=P

harvestbook

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #241 on: March 03, 2020, 12:44:09 PM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.

It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I'm not shopping beyond what I already keep on hand for regular doomsdays anyway. My hunch is Covid has been silently spreading for weeks already, and that shoppers are exposing themselves.

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #242 on: March 03, 2020, 01:10:46 PM »
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.


American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #243 on: March 03, 2020, 03:54:37 PM »
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

Yes, which is why I said previously that I wasn't surprised at the drop of 12.8% by Friday's close down from the Feb 19th high close of the S&P 500 and that I expected it to go lower since there was more reason for it than the drop we saw Oct to Dec 2018 of about 20%.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #244 on: March 03, 2020, 04:11:22 PM »
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

To me its the real world events.  December was just normal market fluctuation unconnected to structural economic issues

Radagast

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #245 on: March 03, 2020, 06:53:55 PM »
Over the weekend I noted that my long term government bonds were approaching their rebalance band once again and put in a long term above-the-market limit order. I started checking that regularly along with the S&P500 to see if Top is in yet (even though I already know it is). Today I was electrified to see the limit order go through. ZROZ at $167.2! I then noticed small value stocks were going through one of the biggest sales in years and put the proceeds there.

In November I moved our taxable accounts to 90% cash (well, Vanguard Ultra Short Bond Index) to buy a house, but the house we wanted sold just before we made an offer. So the cash is still sitting there. The money is still technically earmarked for a near-term house. The stock market has been a real snooze fest recently, but if things ever got exciting I could in theory move that cash into the stock market. And by exciting I mean something like "S&P500 decides to take out the Y2K top, just in time for its 20th anniversary!"

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #246 on: March 04, 2020, 05:48:07 AM »
It's funny that this one feels more serious than the near-20 percent drop in Dec. 2018, I guess because of not only the suddenness but the actual boogeyman to blame the drop on. I didn't do anything then (other than an already-planned Roth conversion) and won't do anything now, but the whole landscape feels unstable. The sudden rate cut actually ramped up the anxiety levels.

I actually was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it's how fast it happened or having real world events to connect it to, but it does feel different and more serious, even though the total decline so far is much smaller than the one at the end of 2018.

To me its the real world events.  December was just normal market fluctuation unconnected to structural economic issues

Same for me.  Decembers slide seemed divorced from any actual economic news, and even the talking heads were struggling to explain it beyond a natural pullback from recent highs despite strong underlying fundamentals or some other doublespeak.
Coronavirus seems to be having a real, widespread and persistent effect on the global supply chain. 

Vapour

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #247 on: March 05, 2020, 09:35:37 PM »
Just posting to say, "I get it now".  I get why it's so tempting to have a knee jerk reaction when the market looks like it's tanking.  I get it now that it can feel so obvious that it's time to bail out.  I get it now that it so easy to believe in your allocation and investment policy statement when things are going good.  I get it now that staying rock solid like I always said I would can seem so wrong when things go bad. I get it now that there is a very human factor in investing as much as I want it to be robotical.  It makes so much more sense now, and I get it.


Well said. I think this might be the biggest short-term market drop many of us have experienced in our investing careers. I had a bit saved up in an IRA in 2008, and managed to stay the course then, but I have roughly 100x more now. I had been a bit worried that I might not be so cool-headed the next time around with more on the line. So far so good though. I even rebalanced a few bonds into stocks on Friday since the stock market drop caused things to deviate a bit from my preferred asset allocation.

+1 to both of these.  Seeing the market drop 3-5% almost every day last week and the large up-down swings this week has been kind of surreal.  Before, it was quite unusual to get changes of 2% in one day.  In the last 2 weeks, that has been the norm to where I find myself expecting it.  I'm glad I haven't felt any urges to sell yet, but I can understand that a prolonged period of market uncertainty could be mentally taxing and stressful.  Doing my monthly asset calculations and realizing I was down $45k in one month was a little sobering.  If this happens for months on end, I'm sure it will get discouraging.  I hope I can continue to stay the course.  You don't lose money until you sell!

Telecaster

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #248 on: March 05, 2020, 09:57:47 PM »
This is what is great about being an old codger.  The recent pullback is a big yawner.   Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   I cannot emphasize enough what a nothingburger this is.  And by that I mean from an investing standpoint.  Of course the coronavirus is a big deal.   But unexpected events like this happen all the time.  The market is back to what it was, what?  six months ago?  BFD.  Even if it was back to where it was two years ago BFD.  This is exactly what we should expect when investing in the stock market.  This is what we signed up for.  The market will go crazy for a period of time.  Maybe years, I dunno.  And then everything will work out fine. 

Stop checking your portfolio, pour a drink, and watch some Netflix.  Everything will be fine.   

matchewed

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #249 on: March 06, 2020, 04:37:42 AM »
Yeah seriously, for all y'all watching the market with baited breath worried about wanting to do something reactive take this moment to stop and revise your IPS. Then when you have done that without staring at a market index chart then adjust it appropriately. The people who come out on top keep emotions out of this game.