Author Topic: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?  (Read 50010 times)

MoneyGoatee

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #150 on: February 28, 2020, 11:03:22 AM »
If you're trying to read tea leaves,

If the market down time has enough depth and breadth, then it's less of a crap shoot and you can get enough of a window to buy low.  You don't need to buy at the absolute low point, of course.  But you can get reasonably close to the lowest point by looking at the 100-day average or similar metrics -- but again, only if the down time has enough breadth, I.e. duration.

During 2008, the down time lasted for months, and Dow's lowest point was at 6000s, briefly.  I used the 100-day average and bought at 7000s to 9000s, which was still not too bad.



YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #151 on: February 28, 2020, 11:25:30 AM »
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm
Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.
It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn


Based on the article you cited, that's almost exactly what scientists are expecting:
Quote
While it is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures, it will be encountering a “completely susceptible” U.S. population, said Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at Penn State University.

The “completely susceptible” population is the same regardless of weather.

Ricochet

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #152 on: February 28, 2020, 11:32:37 AM »
I wanted to wait for bad quarterly reports in April, but markets and the news are running downhill at an amazing pace.  I'll have to rebalance today, selling bonds and buying stocks.

One way to deal with sequence of returns risk is a "bond tent".  Your bond allocation increases until your retirement date, then decreases.  There's different approaches as to speed, starting and ending points.  Rather than do mine time based, I do it "market drop" based, roughly.

So when the market drops this much in a week, I'll want to not only rebalance, but increase my equity allocation a tiny bit.  Need to act before some good news spoils the fearful mood on the markets.

May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).
Good call. I dropped some bond funds in my 401k for stock funds, since I have many years to let it recover.  I also picked up some beaten down Cruise line stocks with extra cash, because this 'panic' of COVID-19 will pass soon (fingers crossed) and people will get back to their normal vacation habits.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #153 on: February 28, 2020, 01:45:16 PM »
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm
Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.
It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn


Based on the article you cited, that's almost exactly what scientists are expecting:
Quote
While it is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures, it will be encountering a “completely susceptible” U.S. population, said Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at Penn State University.

The “completely susceptible” population is the same regardless of weather.

It’s not that warm weather can’t slow the virus.  It’s that we really don’t know anything for sure because it’s novel.  Some viruses are certainly slowed by warm weather

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #154 on: February 28, 2020, 02:24:46 PM »
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm
Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.
It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn


Based on the article you cited, that's almost exactly what scientists are expecting:
Quote
While it is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures, it will be encountering a “completely susceptible” U.S. population, said Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at Penn State University.

The “completely susceptible” population is the same regardless of weather.

Yes, that's what the the scientists are saying, which is DIFFERENT than what Trump was saying.  Here's another article about that:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485052-trump-says-coronavirus-will-die-off-in-warmer

Quote
Trump says coronavirus will die off in warmer weather. Is he right?

Experts say it’s a comforting thought, but there’s no evidence that will happen.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 02:26:53 PM by American GenX »

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #155 on: February 28, 2020, 02:39:07 PM »
more accurately, the scientists involved are all stressing that it's still so early the outbreak that there's a lot we don't know, but here are our best estimates based on what we've seen so far.
Lethality, R0, contagiousness of pre-symptomatic patients, are all estimates now with a great deal of uncertainty.

We won't know for another couple of years whether this is a disease that our immune systems will 'remember' (preventing the same person from getting it twice, and making a future vaccine more effective), or if patients will be as or even more susceptible during future outbreaks.

So most of these predictions are multiplying these uncertainties. 

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #156 on: February 28, 2020, 03:01:25 PM »
Yes, that's what the the scientists are saying, which is DIFFERENT than what Trump was saying.  Here's another article about that:
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485052-trump-says-coronavirus-will-die-off-in-warmer
Quote
Trump says coronavirus will die off in warmer weather. Is he right?
Experts say it’s a comforting thought, but there’s no evidence that will happen.

So you're saying that these two statements are wildy different?
  • “The heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus”
  • "It is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures"

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #157 on: February 28, 2020, 03:13:08 PM »
Yes, that's what the the scientists are saying, which is DIFFERENT than what Trump was saying.  Here's another article about that:
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485052-trump-says-coronavirus-will-die-off-in-warmer
Quote
Trump says coronavirus will die off in warmer weather. Is he right?
Experts say it’s a comforting thought, but there’s no evidence that will happen.

So you're saying that these two statements are wildy different?
  • “The heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus”
  • "It is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures"

Be careful about taking things out of context.  We're talking about the spread of the virus due to seasonal weather.  The scientists are saying there's no evidence that it won't spread in warmer weather, not agreeing with Trumps claims that it will just disappear like a miracle in warmer weather.  In fact, it's already spreading in warmer climates.

From the article, CDC stated:
Quote
In short, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the spread of the disease will abate with warmer weather. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) notes that “at this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer.”

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #158 on: February 28, 2020, 03:21:22 PM »
From the article, CDC stated:
Quote
In short, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the spread of the disease will abate with warmer weather. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) notes that “at this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer.”

Or to put it another way: look at all the cases in Singapore.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #159 on: February 28, 2020, 03:21:33 PM »
We won't know for another couple of years whether this is a disease that our immune systems will 'remember' (preventing the same person from getting it twice, and making a future vaccine more effective), or if patients will be as or even more susceptible during future outbreaks.

Early indications are that you can be reinfected even a short time after recovering from the virus, so it appears there is no built up immunity to the virus, and it may be even worse the second time around.   Not a conclusion, of course.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8055857/Coronavirus-patient-recovered-disease-tests-positive-four-days-later.html

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/wuhan-whistle-blower-doctors-warn-of-deadlier-covid-19-reinfection/ar-BB10r26O

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer-idUSKCN20M124
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 03:52:31 PM by American GenX »

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #160 on: February 28, 2020, 03:25:24 PM »
From the article, CDC stated:
Quote
In short, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the spread of the disease will abate with warmer weather. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) notes that “at this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer.”

Or to put it another way: look at all the cases in Singapore.

Indeed.  Someone else had also mentioned Singapore specifically in one of these threads.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #161 on: February 28, 2020, 03:27:39 PM »
Be careful about taking things out of context ... The scientists are saying there's no evidence that it won't spread in warmer weather, not agreeing with Trumps claims that it will just disappear like a miracle in warmer weather.  In fact, it's already spreading in warmer climates.

You keep arguing that Trump is saying that the virus will just go away in the summer, but all the actual quotes you've linked to so far deal with generalities based on past trends, similar to what scientists are saying.

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #162 on: February 28, 2020, 03:33:16 PM »
You keep arguing that Trump is saying that the virus will just go away in the summer, but all the actual quotes you've linked to so far deal with generalities based on past trends, similar to what scientists are saying.

"The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April" - https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/donald-trump-coronavirus-warm-weather

"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear." - https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-miracle-stock-markets/index.html

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #163 on: February 28, 2020, 03:33:30 PM »
Be careful about taking things out of context ... The scientists are saying there's no evidence that it won't spread in warmer weather, not agreeing with Trumps claims that it will just disappear like a miracle in warmer weather.  In fact, it's already spreading in warmer climates.

You keep arguing that Trump is saying that the virus will just go away in the summer, but all the actual quotes you've linked to so far deal with generalities based on past trends, similar to what scientists are saying.

Actually, I didn't say summer.  I've read/seen this info various places.  April was the specific month Trump was giving.

Here is a fact check from a Washington Post article.

Quote
On Feb. 10, Trump said “a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April.” Four days later, he again said: “There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus.”

Multiple public health officials from the administration have contradicted that prediction, which appears rooted in the idea that U.S. flu season generally ends in the spring. The virus is spreading in Singapore, where temperatures are akin to summer in the United States

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/28/fact-checking-president-trumps-coronavirus-news-conference/

My previous link also linked to this video of Trump giving this info.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/10/trump-rallies-new-hampshire-eve-democratic-primary/4716223002/
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 03:41:52 PM by American GenX »

effigy98

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #164 on: February 28, 2020, 03:48:30 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #165 on: February 28, 2020, 04:01:40 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

It seems like the numbers are moving in the direction of a higher fatality rate when just looking at those cured vs. died while excluding those who are still infected, worsened if people are reinfected as appears to have happened in some cases.  Too early to jump to conclusions about that, though.

the_fixer

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #166 on: February 28, 2020, 04:19:57 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

Interestingly enough I was just at Costco picking up standard items for next week and I was really surprised how empty the shelves were of items.

One of the things we needed was toilet paper and they still had some but they were out of paper towels. An employee was standing in that area telling everyone they were out and hoping to get more in this week and also mentioned they were out of rice, flour, Clorox wipes, and a few other things.

Multiple people shopping were wearing masks, gloves and they had someone wiping shopping cart handles down as they were handing them to people.

As I took my stuff out to the car there was a guy loading a pallet of rice and water into a SUV floor to ceiling full.

My most interesting trip to Costco yet




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FIRE Artist

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #167 on: February 28, 2020, 05:32:44 PM »
8% death rate based on current recovery numbers vs died. Scary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

All the Costcos around here are out of TP, Water, Rice, Beans, etc. I have never seen Costco out of these things.

Yelen did mention the fed should think about buying Stocks in the next downturn, maybe that will buffer the carnage and getting out of stocks is a mistake. Who knows...

Interestingly enough I was just at Costco picking up standard items for next week and I was really surprised how empty the shelves were of items.

One of the things we needed was toilet paper and they still had some but they were out of paper towels. An employee was standing in that area telling everyone they were out and hoping to get more in this week and also mentioned they were out of rice, flour, Clorox wipes, and a few other things.

Multiple people shopping were wearing masks, gloves and they had someone wiping shopping cart handles down as they were handing them to people.

As I took my stuff out to the car there was a guy loading a pallet of rice and water into a SUV floor to ceiling full.

My most interesting trip to Costco yet




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This boggles my mind.  If you need to go into quarantine, or god forbid, your city were on lock down for the virus, wouldn’t you want to provide yourself with some variety in your diet?  Why stockpile all that in rice and only rice?  China has thus far managed to keep the lights on, and the taps running, so why are people treating this like refrigerators and freezers won’t be working?  The messaging here in Canada is you may want to think about having a couple of weeks of food and meds in your house, not “you need to stock up for the f’in apocalypse”. 

My prediction - the food banks will be super happy with the flood of dry goods coming their way in about 3 months. 

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #168 on: February 28, 2020, 09:20:11 PM »
As someone who helps run a food bank, I say, awesome. Buy up those beans and rice! I'll pass them out to folks who really need them later.

-W

moneytaichi

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #169 on: February 28, 2020, 09:59:34 PM »
Beans and rice make up the complete nutritional meal :-)

As a person who grew up in the post-famine era in China (70s), I can understand the impulse to buy rice. One time when I was in a shop with empty shelve for rice, it sent a chill to my spine. It's just a PTSD response. I agree it makes more sense to store up besides rice. How about millet, quinoa, beans, lentils, flour, noodles...? We are so lucky that we still have options to stock up. Many people in other parts of world don't have even basic staples for everyday life.

Besides preparing for our food, toilet tissues and stocks, let's also send some prayers or good wishes for people who are stuck and hungry.

Don't mean to give a morale lesson here. It's a reminder for myself too that we are so incredibly lucky to be in this part of the world. It fits with Mustache motto.

magnet18

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #170 on: February 28, 2020, 11:07:23 PM »
Yea, i stockpiled 130,000 calories of rice and beans this week.  Rice and beans are the absolute cheapest way to buy carbs and protein, non-perishible, and darn good packing efficiency too.  They just make sense. A month of (bland) food can be had for about $50/person. Not trying to live like a king, it's in case of an almost certainly not going to happen emergency.

I 100% expect to have absolutely no use for a stockpile, but better safe than sorry, and at least I won't have to buy rice or beans for a few months.


Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.



Oh yea, as for investments, pull out of the market entirely and wait for the pandemic to cause a surplus in housing, then buy up rental houses and wait for the population to recover.
</Humor>

mies

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #171 on: February 29, 2020, 03:47:19 AM »
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #172 on: February 29, 2020, 04:54:00 AM »
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

Another reason to stockpile is to avoid going to crowded places like grocery stores. If I only go food shopping once every two or three weeks (versus a couple times a week), I cut down on my likelihood of coming in contact with someone who has the virus.

Friar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #173 on: February 29, 2020, 05:16:10 AM »
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

Another reason to stockpile is to avoid going to crowded places like grocery stores. If I only go food shopping once every two or three weeks (versus a couple times a week), I cut down on my likelihood of coming in contact with someone who has the virus.

Do you top up for fresh fruit and vegetables, or go exclusively frozen?

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #174 on: February 29, 2020, 08:25:29 AM »
Yea, i stockpiled 130,000 calories of rice and beans this week.  Rice and beans are the absolute cheapest way to buy carbs and protein, non-perishible, and darn good packing efficiency too.  They just make sense. A month of (bland) food can be had for about $50/person. Not trying to live like a king, it's in case of an almost certainly not going to happen emergency.

I 100% expect to have absolutely no use for a stockpile, but better safe than sorry, and at least I won't have to buy rice or beans for a few months.


Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

So about forty pounds each of rice and beans? That makes an impressive pile.

Do remember to store fats at the same time as your protein and carbohydrates. A regular big bottle of cooking oil is a few bucks for ~12,000 calories, and rice and beans taste a LOT better if you're not eating them without any fat/salt/seasoning.

Stores remain well stocked where I am too. The only potential corona virus related shortage I noticed was that I picked up the absolute last bottle of hand sanitizer at the local Target (which means I have a weird scented kind but still seems like good practice to have something in the car).

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #175 on: February 29, 2020, 08:48:13 AM »
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

Another reason to stockpile is to avoid going to crowded places like grocery stores. If I only go food shopping once every two or three weeks (versus a couple times a week), I cut down on my likelihood of coming in contact with someone who has the virus.

Do you top up for fresh fruit and vegetables, or go exclusively frozen?

Any fruits/veggies that can last in the cold cellar (or in our case, the garage), so potatoes, carrots, apples, onions, oranges, etc. We also stocked up on canned veggies. Our freezer space is limited, so we keep meats and seafood in there.

Helvegen

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #176 on: February 29, 2020, 09:39:12 AM »
Interesting you guys are seeing panic buying.  Everything is absolutely normal in my city.

Same here. I didn't notice anything out of stock or out of the ordinary when I got groceries this week.

I was at Costco yesterday and I live where there have been several reported cases already. No one was panic buying anything, TP and water were stacked to the ceiling. Nobody cares as far as I can tell.

I keep a general stockpile of crap because our power tends to go out in winter storms all the time. Maybe lots of other people around here do the same and there is nothing to go apeshit about yet.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #177 on: February 29, 2020, 10:16:06 AM »
What I saw Friday was almost literally all bad news.  Any good news Saturday, Sunday or Monday would seem to spoil the market panic, so I bought in on Friday (about 11:15 EST, with Us markets down -3.3% at the time).  I think I hit the lowest point Friday, which ended down -0.7%... so for now, my investment is up about +2.5%.

I'm trying to do the tail end of a "bond tent", where I increase equity allocation after market drops.  So I did a small increase Monday, and then read Friday as 100% panic in the markets, and pushed up my stock percentage by +2.25%.  So I rebalanced from bonds to stocks because of losses, and then sold even more bonds to shift into stocks.

So... when the market was in a gut-wrenching panic, I bought.  If the losses continue next week, so be it.  I think I spotted the moment of maximum panic.

FrugalSaver

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #178 on: February 29, 2020, 01:08:55 PM »
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243

Preparing the list to start legging in overthe next few weeks. My opinion is this won’t be a v up and there will be many head fakes.

We have our first USA death today. Once the first child sadly dies, it will be more hysteria. Women at work were talking non stop about it this week with their kids and what to do

Highs for 2020 are already in and won’t be seen for 18 months or more.

DISCLAIMER - I could be wrong about everything above. I never time the market so this will be an interesting experiment. Good luck to all. I’m in a crowd of 4,000 people now. Wish me luck and good health.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #179 on: February 29, 2020, 01:57:35 PM »
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243
...I never time the market

LOL.

I mean, I have no evidence that you're not right to do it, but at least just own it - you're market timing.

-W

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #180 on: February 29, 2020, 02:15:25 PM »

The S&P 500 is down 12.8% still from the record high.  I think there's quite a bit of downside to this market as it looks for a new bottom.  With the overvaluation of stocks, I wouldn't have been surprised to see a bigger drop than this even without the COVID-19 outbreak, as we did in late 2018.  I appreciate the optimism, but still don't see this as a good time to buy, yet.  But then, I could be wrong.

LWYRUP

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #181 on: February 29, 2020, 02:39:39 PM »
As someone who helps run a food bank, I say, awesome. Buy up those beans and rice! I'll pass them out to folks who really need them later.

-W

If you are talking about America writ large, you're probably right.  But this is the money Mustache website.  I'm going to use all the rice and beans, don't worry.

I prepped extensively throughout the week.  None of it will be wasted.  In fact, since I bought large products with less packing and took fewer trips, it will save money and be better for the environment.

A single ten pound bag of black beans is way better for the environment than buying a bunch of cans, or even worse a bunch of delivery.

TempusFugit

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #182 on: February 29, 2020, 03:04:08 PM »
I confess that i did buy a bit more at the grocery today than i would normally.  The only thing i noticed any shortage of was hand sanitizer. 

I bought some rice and canned beans which i normally keep on hand in smaller quantities, but now have 3x the usual stock. 

investment wise, i have done nothing.  My allocation is fairly conservative at 65/35 (or it was before last week) so my invested assets are now down about 8%.  Ive got some cash in a money market account but not enough to really take much advantage.  I will be withdrawing some of that to pay uncle sam next month anyway, so i don't really plan to make any moves.  Ill just sit tight and continue to invest on my normal monthly schedule and wait it out.   

Im down six figures so far, which doesn't feel great, but since we’re all in the same boat, it also isn't too demoralizing. 

Helvegen

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #183 on: February 29, 2020, 04:21:56 PM »
Someone died in my state now of CV and the Governor declared emergency. I cannot stay as fully invested in the stonk market as I am and will be moving a bit out. I also have gold and silver from 2009 I never did anything with, so there is that. I am also a traditional archer that can shoot very well instinctively. My house is full of food and fuel and my neighbors are alright. But again, I have to live in constant state of preparedness anyway due to weather and threats like earthquakes and I think a lot of people in my rural area might also do the same.

If it blows over like I really still think it will, I will suck up my losses, nbd. That's what tax loss harvesting is for (I've already lost LTG money right now in the positions I will be selling). Is what it is. I am doing nothing with my tax advantaged accounts. I am selling a bit just out of my taxable. If I need it, I need it. If not whatever and I will reinvest it.

Edited because I misinterpreted something I read in the article about this.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 06:49:25 AM by Helvegen »

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #184 on: February 29, 2020, 04:45:02 PM »
I'm in the bay area (very near where the patient of unknown disease origin is) & things were crazy at the local Costco today. They were out of (fresh) chicken, cleaning supplies, and several other items. The parking lot & store were a madhouse, with a 45-60 minute wait. The most I've waited before is 15 minutes, on the day before Thanksgiving, or whatever.

I was also at the local grocery store, Trader Joes, & the produce stand. These are standard weekly errands. We did buy a few more frozen fruit/veggie options than normal, and picked up extra TP, kleenex & a few other non-perishables.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #185 on: February 29, 2020, 05:52:17 PM »
I am also a traditional archer that can shoot very well instinctively.

This is my favorite post so far.

-W

effigy98

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #186 on: February 29, 2020, 11:38:34 PM »
It's not panic yet, but there are several quarantines, Costco ran out of many goods. Lines to back of store, massive buying, people loading full pallets on their trucks. Went to cash, not worth losing 70% like I did in .com bubble. This is getting more worrying since death it is local. Costco might be a great stock if you are still bullish, PE is high though.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 11:46:04 PM by effigy98 »

Hotstreak

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #187 on: March 01, 2020, 12:12:39 AM »
I'm in the bay area (very near where the patient of unknown disease origin is) & things were crazy at the local Costco today. They were out of (fresh) chicken, cleaning supplies, and several other items. The parking lot & store were a madhouse, with a 45-60 minute wait. The most I've waited before is 15 minutes, on the day before Thanksgiving, or whatever.

I was also at the local grocery store, Trader Joes, & the produce stand. These are standard weekly errands. We did buy a few more frozen fruit/veggie options than normal, and picked up extra TP, kleenex & a few other non-perishables.


Similar situation in Portland today.  A lady is apparently infected, although she had no travel to asia and no close contact with infected persons.  She worked at an elementary school on one side of the town, and is being treated on the other side of town in a small hospital.  The grocery store was sold out of flour, bleach, most cleaning products, rice, and gallon jugs of water.  The shelves were fairly well stripped of other items, but not sold out.  News reports say costco had a 1000 person line at opening, and they are sold out on numerous items too.


It's clearly a panic; whether the panic is warranted remains to be seen.  At this point, I'm mostly worried about running out of staples that are depleted due to the panic buying.  I stocked up last week with this in mind, and everything will be eaten.


For investments, I haven't made any changes yet, and am not due to rebalance for several months.  I have an emergency fund that I'm not putting in the market.  I think everyone needs to take a few deep breaths and do their best to act rationally ... it's easy to be smart when things are going well, being smart when things are turning to shit is a lot harder.

frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #188 on: March 01, 2020, 07:11:56 AM »
The Costco I'm Michigan was out of control yesterday.  It's usually busy on the weekend so we went shortly after opening to avoid the crowds, but it was the busiest I've ever seen it.  Similar to the day before Thanksgiving or Christmas, parking lot full and people just driving around looking for spots, lines inside the store were damn near back to the meat department. It was insane. They didn't seem to be out of anything, but I saw lots of people with cases and cases of bottled water, and bags of rice, etc.

We went to Kroger immediately afterwards and that was crazy busy as well.  Not quite as bad as Costco, but ridiculous none the less.

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #189 on: March 01, 2020, 07:36:34 AM »
So what's the argument for buying big cases of bottled water?

Rice and beans I can sort of understand. If the US tried to replicate the Wuhan lockdown* it might be hard to get new groceries for a while. Even if we don't, if the virus starts spreading broadly in the country, being able to cut down on trips to the grocery store for a few months is probably good both for personal risk of inflection and reduce the overall spread through the population.

But are people genuinely worried water will stop coming out of the tap because of a disease outbreak? By the time that happened, it seems like we'd have bigger problems to worry about than having an adequate supply of bottled water (what with the imminent breakdown of civilization and all).

*I don't know that our government has either the political will or enforcement infrastructure to replicate the level of lockdown China was both willing and able to impose to stop the spread of the virus.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #190 on: March 01, 2020, 08:02:46 AM »
I don't have the statistics, but I know a lot of people will not (or can't/shouldn't) drink water out of their taps, so they use bottled water, even in good times.  So, it makes sense they might be stocking up just as they would on other groceries.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #191 on: March 01, 2020, 09:18:19 AM »
So what's the argument for buying big cases of bottled water?

Your water heater has ~50 gallons of nice drinkable water. If you need more than that, yes, it's the zombie apocalypse.

Then again, I don't get people buying bottled water *at all*, ever. Especially the purified stuff - you *want* those minerals!

People aren't starving in freaking *China* where this disease has been happening for 6 weeks now. You think you're going to need a pile of beans and rice (remember, you need a way to cook them...) for some reason?

-W

frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #192 on: March 01, 2020, 09:37:28 AM »
I don't have the statistics, but I know a lot of people will not (or can't/shouldn't) drink water out of their taps, so they use bottled water, even in good times.  So, it makes sense they might be stocking up just as they would on other groceries.

I may be biased because of where I live, but metro Detroit has some of the best water in the states.  It's perfectly clean and healthy and tastes just fine.  But 90% of the people I know claim they can't drink the tap water.  WTF are you talking about, we all get our water from the exact same source and it's fine to drink and you are an idiot to drink only bottled water.  It's insane the amount of people in this area that refuse to drink tap water for *insert bullshit reason*.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #193 on: March 01, 2020, 09:43:53 AM »
The governor of Washington seems to be a pure moron.  A single death of an already health-compromised individual in his state is not worth declaring an emergency especially because he had exactly zero to say about what that means for day-to-day operations. 

Declaring a “State of Emergency” is a required step for receiving federal $ and support.
It’s not about the number of deaths to date, but the potential for severe outcomes.

For perspective, many gulf states will declare a State of Emergency long before a hurricane makes landfall.  It allows the state to spend money, buy supplies, stage personnel.
Occasionally the hurricane take a turn, or becomes downgraded, and the actual emergency is limited to power-outages from a bad storm.


PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #194 on: March 01, 2020, 10:24:30 AM »
The governor of Washington seems to be a pure moron.  A single death of an already health-compromised individual in his state is not worth declaring an emergency especially because he had exactly zero to say about what that means for day-to-day operations. 

Declaring a “State of Emergency” is a required step for receiving federal $ and support.
It’s not about the number of deaths to date, but the potential for severe outcomes.

Also

The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death from covid-19 was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis of the virus from a newly diagnosed patient in Snohomish County closely matched that of a specimen from the first known coronavirus patient in the United States, who traveled from China in January. The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that these cases are linked through community transmission, researchers say, and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #195 on: March 01, 2020, 11:00:52 AM »
The governor of Washington seems to be a pure moron.  A single death of an already health-compromised individual in his state is not worth declaring an emergency especially because he had exactly zero to say about what that means for day-to-day operations. 

Declaring a “State of Emergency” is a required step for receiving federal $ and support.
It’s not about the number of deaths to date, but the potential for severe outcomes.

Also

The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death from covid-19 was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis of the virus from a newly diagnosed patient in Snohomish County closely matched that of a specimen from the first known coronavirus patient in the United States, who traveled from China in January. The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that these cases are linked through community transmission, researchers say, and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

Six weeks?  Yikes!  It could certainly spread a long ways in that amount of time with all the asymptomatic and mild case carriers running around.  Of course, it already appears to be spreading in my area as well.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #196 on: March 01, 2020, 11:08:11 AM »
I did note in my post that the purpose was for the access to money.  Inslee should have made it clear that the purpose was to acquire federal funding but instead he let it hang out there for people to make their own false assumptions and clean out the shelves at Costco.   

When everyone reacts by buying guns in the state will he simply shrug and wonder why everyone got all nervous?  And blame the dumb public for being all bitter and clingy-like?  Yep. 

Never let a crisis go to waste, no matter what it does to the public conscious.   

     

You called him an “idiot” and worse,  clearly connecting this declaration to his idiocy.
IMO he’s doing here what is required.  Since there’s a definite possibility outbreaks will increase, the sooner its done the faster resources can be deployed.  It is ironicthat governors need to pre-actively declare an ‘emergency’, but there are reasons for that (i.e. state’s rights; a state must request intervention and funds, they cannot be forced onto a state). 

Had he not taken this step he would be considered derelict in his duties if/when additional resources were needed.

Your frustration here seems misplaced - with the system, not the governor.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #197 on: March 01, 2020, 11:42:56 AM »
You are probably correct about that.  I get frustrated when things are not clear and this was a prime example of letting things wag around too much during a time that people could use clear instruction.  Unfortunately this particular governor is just as likely to declare the long arc of global warming as an emergency and it muddies the use of the word. 

facepalm

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #198 on: March 01, 2020, 11:49:29 AM »
I moved the rest of my bond positions into the stock market.
Yeah, I'll probably do a little of that. Probably go from a 60/40 AA to 65/35.

Live life on the edge. :=)

Raeon

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401k’s?
« Reply #199 on: March 01, 2020, 11:57:47 AM »
This thread got a derailed a little.  To try and get back on track a bit.

This is all in my play-money taxable account. I did absolutely nothing in my retirement accounts.

I moved 50% back out to cash/gold Monday last week. (oopsed a bit on the gold idea, oh well) I left the other 50% where it lies. I don't mind waiting in those as I also don't want the tax hit on them right now.

Friday I put 10% of that 50% back in. I'm not convinced we've seen the worst of this. Mostly I enlarged my position in BRK.B due to the expectation that they'll finally put some of their $128B in cash reserves to use and it's a reasonably good investment in recessions.  I bought another share of AMZN since more people will be shopping from home and I feel it's nearly reached the point of undervalued this past year.  I also bought some weed stocks. They've gotten crazy low. I expect some more legalization on the way and that always props up their prices a bit.