Author Topic: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?  (Read 49996 times)

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #100 on: February 25, 2020, 02:54:17 PM »

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #101 on: February 25, 2020, 03:08:28 PM »
Did the market drop? OK.

I have this stuff automated for a reason. I do not want to deal with it. Even if the markets crash, its all on paper until I sell. So, I won't sell. Anything I buy might be on sale, which, cool.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #102 on: February 25, 2020, 03:21:55 PM »
Coronaviris......its a bad flu!...its not Ebola or the Black Death

Media loves to sensationalise this crap

The coming market hysteria is merely a buying opportunity surely....

Standard flu kills 1 percent of those who get it as standard, mainly old and weak unfortunately ....yeah corno is bad.....but its still just flu

B

brooklynmoney

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #103 on: February 25, 2020, 03:31:37 PM »
I bought a lot of VTI today. Catching a falling knife but hopefully pays off in long run (ie years from now)

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #104 on: February 25, 2020, 04:18:37 PM »
Standard flu kills 1 percent of those who get it as standard, mainly old and weak unfortunately ....yeah corno is bad.....but its still just flu

Normal influenza kills 0.1% (that's 1/10 of 1/%, or 1 in 1000 cases), not 1%. Just FYI. I'm not sure we know enough to say what the death rate is from Covid-19, especially in an industrialized/advanced country like the US. If it's 1-2%, though, that would make it very, very bad as compared to seasonal influenza. Not Captain Trips, obviously, but enough to cause meaningful problems and a lot of deaths of elderly and immunocompromised people.

The other question is how easily it spreads/how many people it infects. Most seasonal flus aren't too bad that way. Covid-19, we don't know yet. If half the population gets it, and it kills 2% of those people... that's a big deal. If only a couple percent get it, not so much.

-W
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 04:40:30 PM by waltworks »

use2betrix

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #105 on: February 25, 2020, 06:03:53 PM »
I keep a large emergency fund due to the volatility of my work as a contractor, and really because I like the idea of being able to say FU at any time. Also because I invest nearly 100% in stocks (mostly VTSAX), the cash also limits my exposure.

That being said, with these market drops and with the current security of my job, I will be ok dumping some of my emergency fund into the market. If the DOW drops below 27k (very close now) Ill drop $10k or $15k in, then continue suit for each 1000 drop below the 27k mark.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #106 on: February 25, 2020, 06:34:17 PM »
The S&P 500 is actually down just over 7.6% from the closing high of the year on Feb 19th.

Telecaster

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #107 on: February 25, 2020, 06:43:49 PM »
Coronaviris......its a bad flu!...its not Ebola or the Black Death

Media loves to sensationalise this crap

The coming market hysteria is merely a buying opportunity surely....

Standard flu kills 1 percent of those who get it as standard, mainly old and weak unfortunately ....yeah corno is bad.....but its still just flu

B


You might be interested in John Barry's book about the 1918 flu epidemic, which killed between 40 and 100 million people.

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Influenza-Deadliest-Pandemic-History-ebook/dp/B000OCXFWE/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1582680633&sr=8-2

A constant refrain throughout the book is people dismissed it because it was "just flu."  Right up until they died. 

Standard flu has mortality rate of about 0.1%--not 1% as you claim.     Corona virus flu has a mortality rate of about 2%, as far as we can tell.  Much, much, more serious than regular flu.   By comparison Spanish Flu had a mortality rate about of 2-3%. 

COVID-19 is not contained, there will be no vaccine for at least a year, and it is possible there will never be a vaccine. 

I don't think it is time to push the panic button, but this is potentially a major public health issue.  No one knows how this plays out, but the worst case scenario is pretty bad.  That's why dozens of cities across the globe are in lockdown. 

effigy98

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #108 on: February 25, 2020, 07:02:49 PM »
They are talking about shutting down schools for up to 3 weeks. That WILL have a big shock to the economy. I am taking profits and moving to a more conservative allocations by halving my stock allocations. I see a higher probability of downside at this CAPE then upside and willing to risk losing some gains vs massive losses and I would love to be able to buy back in at more reasonable valuations. I don't think the fed can print their way out of that kind of shock this time, but who knows. I have been wrong many times before...
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 07:05:34 PM by effigy98 »

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #109 on: February 25, 2020, 09:03:31 PM »
The US CDC is telling people to prepare for a coronavirus outbreak. If this thing hits the US like it hit us in Shanghai, the economy will definitely be impacted. Closing schools for three weeks is nothing. Schools in China have been closed since the end of January, with no opening date in sight. For several weeks, the streets were empty. Businesses with tight cashflow went bankrupt. Other businesses are slowly ramping up but still not able to operate at capacity. This is like a black swan event. At least thats what it felt like in Shanghai when I walked through completely empty streets in a city of 25 million people. It was eerily quiet.

Travis

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #110 on: February 26, 2020, 04:39:37 AM »
The US military bases in Korea are on a gradually increasing lock down.  In Daegu where this thing exploded last week nobody is allowed in or out except with General Officer approval.  There's a testing backlog of about 10,000 so results are 2-3 days out.  Here in Pyeongtek we're not allowed to go to off-post bars or restaurants until further notice. No off-post movie theaters, and no off-post church services.  They're instituting medical screenings at the gate which brought traffic across town to a standstill. It broke the bus/taxi system because it was impossible to move on the roads this morning.  Moving a few miles in a car took 3 hours. Standing in line with my bicycle on my 2 mile commute took 100 minutes.  This is a microcosm of what other major cities will endure if this thing continues for a few more weeks.  In Wuhan which has been a ghost town for a month, the Chinese government is considering letting people go back to work because the factories have been idle which increases the risk of more people getting sick.  Nobody is traveling to China right now and it sounds like they're going to start tightening travel to and from Korea. 

Whether the virus is super deadly or not is not really the point. Even everyone "just getting the flu" is bad enough.  Imagine what happens to you when you get the flu. Now imagine your entire city having it at the same time.  And your health care system is already strained on a good day.  A vaccine is in test phase, but it could be weeks or months before it's approved, and even then they'll need to make a billion doses.

All that said. I'm not touching my investments. It may take weeks or months, but it'll pass.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #111 on: February 26, 2020, 07:55:29 AM »
The figures I saw (BBC article reporting on research paper from China) showed high risk for elderly.  If you're young and not afraid, that's fine: a 0.2% death rate for those in their 30s backs that feeling up.  But people in their 80s have a 15% death rate, which is hardly flu numbers.

Investments aren't solely about this being a bad flu, either.  Look at how governments respond: China locks down a region with tens of millions of people.  Nobody going to work, no malls open.. nothing.  Empty streets.  With countries not allowing travelers from China, a huge number of tourists aren't traveling.  When a new city gets the virus, that city gets locked down... and then travel plans get canceled.

This week stocks dropped almost -8%, which is more in line with SARS (from one source that I haven't verified).  But with all the economic disruption (like supply chains with parts / components from China), I don't see how this could be the same as SARS.  If the markets are relatively calm in March, while COVID-19 continues, I'd expect a lot of stock market panic when the data comes out (2020 Q1 reports by companies).


YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #112 on: February 26, 2020, 08:02:52 AM »
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #113 on: February 26, 2020, 08:16:47 AM »
As far as doing something specifically because of the recent virus-caused tumult, I will make my full 2020 HSA investment contribution all at once and earlier than planned. 

If the chickens go on sale by another 5% I will move some cash reserves over to VTSAX in my brokerage account. 

Look at me, all market-timey like.     

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #114 on: February 26, 2020, 08:53:18 AM »
No change. My twice a month 401k contribution will be buying a couple more shares for a while since equities are on sale. I'm glad I bumped my traditional and Roth up to 25% combined at the beginning of the year.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #115 on: February 26, 2020, 09:04:38 AM »
Oh no! I just realized I double market timed as my entire position in HAO, Invesco's the Chinese focused ETF, was sold off two weeks ago. It wasn't my fault as Invesco liquidated the fund on February 14th (before the 7% drop), so it looks I very successfully unintentionally market timed. 

https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?ticker=HAO

harvestbook

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #116 on: February 26, 2020, 11:12:25 AM »
I having a feeling "But the regular flu" is going to be the "But her emails" of 2020.

I'm not doing anything with my portfolio, but I expect it to be bad primarily because of hubris and an endemic lack of national/international organization and leadership. There's no one to trust when everyone lies for political benefit. Killing off 2 percent of the planet solves the Social Security puzzle, I guess.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #117 on: February 26, 2020, 11:37:47 AM »
I having a feeling "But the regular flu" is going to be the "But her emails" of 2020.

I'm not doing anything with my portfolio, but I expect it to be bad primarily because of hubris and an endemic lack of national/international organization and leadership. There's no one to trust when everyone lies for political benefit. Killing off 2 percent of the planet solves the Social Security puzzle, I guess.

Depends on which 2% it kills.  H1N1 was so disruptive (both times) because it adversely impacted working-age adults relative to other epidemics. Infections that target children are even more damaging, as they impact the productivity of the parents while putting a dent int he demographics which echos decades later.
...but yeah - if senior citizens start dropping like flies a whole lot of wealth suddenly is released and a lot of social programs change around.  And to think how angry people got over the false idea of death panels /sarcasm.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #118 on: February 26, 2020, 12:30:29 PM »
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!

I'm kidding, sort of. But it would be interesting intellectually to see what happened to some items (real estate, gold, private planes, to some extent firearms/ammo) that are disproportionately owned by the elderly males in our society.

For instance, I know someone in his 70s who probably has $50k+ worth of shotguns (it could be way more than that, some of them are antiques I believe) as well as other various firearms. None of his kids hunt or shoot or give a crap. That whole collection goes straight up for sale when he dies, guaranteed. He's got all kinds of other similar stuff (vintage ICE cars, sports memorabilia) that aren't interesting to millennials either.

There are some items that would really collapse in value, I bet.

-W

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #119 on: February 26, 2020, 12:36:42 PM »
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!

I'm kidding, sort of. But it would be interesting intellectually to see what happened to some items (real estate, gold, private planes, to some extent firearms/ammo) that are disproportionately owned by the elderly males in our society.

For instance, I know someone in his 70s who probably has $50k+ worth of shotguns (it could be way more than that, some of them are antiques I believe) as well as other various firearms. None of his kids hunt or shoot or give a crap. That whole collection goes straight up for sale when he dies, guaranteed. He's got all kinds of other similar stuff (vintage ICE cars, sports memorabilia) that aren't interesting to millennials either.

There are some items that would really collapse in value, I bet.

-W

In a way we see these generational shifts from time to time even without a big epidemic.  Pianos (particularly the upright kind) are the latest example; no one wants them, no one wants to store them.  In the 50s-80s it seemed every house had to own one, and every kid had to learn to play.  Now I see ones on freecycle daily that cost over $5k new.  From several thousand $ to essentially worthless.

My city had such a glut they turned several dozen into an art exhibit... artists painted them to look pretty and built alcoves in public places, and anyone could just walk up and start playing a (badly tuned) piano.

Most formal sterling silverwear is worth more melted down than as forks and knives. Save a few collectible designs formal china is free wear too now.  PLus countless other items that were must-haves in the 70s/80s but millenials/Xers spurn in the 2020s.





YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #120 on: February 26, 2020, 01:17:27 PM »
In a way we see these generational shifts from time to time even without a big epidemic.  Pianos (particularly the upright kind) are the latest example; no one wants them, no one wants to store them.  In the 50s-80s it seemed every house had to own one, and every kid had to learn to play.  Now I see ones on freecycle daily that cost over $5k new.  From several thousand $ to essentially worthless.

Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #121 on: February 26, 2020, 03:15:59 PM »
Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.

I'm stocking up on BTS t-shirts. In 50 years I'll be rolling in dough!

-W

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #122 on: February 26, 2020, 03:17:57 PM »
Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.

I'm stocking up on BTS t-shirts. In 50 years I'll be rolling in dough!

-W

Buy pumpkin futures now. Sell just around New Years...

UnleashHell

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #123 on: February 26, 2020, 03:21:42 PM »
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!



-W

Bernie might be in trouble.
and the voting demographic of the Republicans....

and all that lovely inheritance flowing into the hands of new folks. that'll help the economy!!

see - its not all doom and gloom....

use2betrix

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #124 on: February 26, 2020, 07:08:30 PM »
My cash reserves are a bit fat right now as my 401k and bi-weekly VTSAX contributions are a bit less than my actual savings. I dropped $15k into VTSAX today. Needed to do it anyways. If it keeps dropping Id be willing to put in another $40k-$50k or so in. Either way is fine. If it drops, happy to put it in. If it goes back up, happy to keep the large FU fund as well.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #125 on: February 26, 2020, 08:25:51 PM »
@nereo, just think what it'll do to gold prices if 25% of the old men who watch Fox news die!



-W

Bernie might be in trouble.
and the voting demographic of the Republicans....

and all that lovely inheritance flowing into the hands of new folks. that'll help the economy!!

see - its not all doom and gloom....

Careful what you joke for. I've been hearing the demographic argument for 20 years now, so it is entirely possible this virus becomes the new great hope for How We Will Sit On Our Asses And Still Win Elections In The Future.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #126 on: February 26, 2020, 10:01:26 PM »
In a way we see these generational shifts from time to time even without a big epidemic.  Pianos (particularly the upright kind) are the latest example; no one wants them, no one wants to store them.  In the 50s-80s it seemed every house had to own one, and every kid had to learn to play.  Now I see ones on freecycle daily that cost over $5k new.  From several thousand $ to essentially worthless.

Indeed, and these shifts seem to follow fairly consistent patterns. When the 10 year olds of today turn 40, there's a good chance what they are interested in today will be reasonably valuable. When the 10 year olds of today turn 60, what they are interested in today will be at the peak of its value. When the 10 year olds of today turn 80, what they are interested in today will be decreasing in value.

Hopefully the kids are still into MONEY when Im old

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #127 on: February 26, 2020, 10:02:23 PM »
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM

Monerexia

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #128 on: February 26, 2020, 10:29:19 PM »
Buying the index daily all the way down. The only way to keep the 4% house advantage is to cover all bets all the time.

DK

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #129 on: February 27, 2020, 06:10:24 AM »
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM

Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #130 on: February 27, 2020, 06:19:14 AM »
So it appears that I'm now market timing: the 10-year treasury note has fallen to historic lows and mortgage rates are following suit. I didn't expect to refi out of my 30-year fixed conventional loan at 3.7%, but it now makes sense to do so.

What rate did you get?  Ive started really watching mortgage rates considering a refi, possibly even ARM

3.25% on a 30 year. With a $220,000 loan balance, the 0.45% drop in rate will cover the closing costs in a bit over a year and a half.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #131 on: February 27, 2020, 06:23:10 AM »
Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

Even if you were to continue to pay off your mortgage quickly, it still might be beneficial to refinance. My general rule of thumb is that a refi needs to pay for itself in two years.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #132 on: February 27, 2020, 08:05:20 AM »

I'm definitely sitting tight with my 42% equities AA.

Looks like the Dow is down about 600 points after the latest COVID-19 news that I posted in the other thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2569312/#msg2569312

jinga nation

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #133 on: February 27, 2020, 01:58:11 PM »
The US military bases in Korea are on a gradually increasing lock down.  In Daegu where this thing exploded last week nobody is allowed in or out except with General Officer approval.  There's a testing backlog of about 10,000 so results are 2-3 days out.  Here in Pyeongtek we're not allowed to go to off-post bars or restaurants until further notice. No off-post movie theaters, and no off-post church services.  They're instituting medical screenings at the gate which brought traffic across town to a standstill. It broke the bus/taxi system because it was impossible to move on the roads this morning.  Moving a few miles in a car took 3 hours. Standing in line with my bicycle on my 2 mile commute took 100 minutes.  This is a microcosm of what other major cities will endure if this thing continues for a few more weeks.  In Wuhan which has been a ghost town for a month, the Chinese government is considering letting people go back to work because the factories have been idle which increases the risk of more people getting sick.  Nobody is traveling to China right now and it sounds like they're going to start tightening travel to and from Korea. 

Whether the virus is super deadly or not is not really the point. Even everyone "just getting the flu" is bad enough.  Imagine what happens to you when you get the flu. Now imagine your entire city having it at the same time.  And your health care system is already strained on a good day.  A vaccine is in test phase, but it could be weeks or months before it's approved, and even then they'll need to make a billion doses.

All that said. I'm not touching my investments. It may take weeks or months, but it'll pass.

Just want to say thanks for the info. Couple of co-workers were supposed to travel to your location next week. All non-mission-essential travel has been cancelled.

effigy98

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #134 on: February 27, 2020, 02:09:43 PM »
Well it started in my area today in PNW. Some schools shut down, people have to stay home to watch kids. Stocked up on necessities and have little equity risk now. I recently hit FI and the feeling (yes I know, feelings) I got from it improved my entire life. I do not want to lose it. I am willing to take the risk off the table and miss some upside, but at this CAPE level I see more downside then up.

Telecaster

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #135 on: February 27, 2020, 02:43:35 PM »
Not the original poster, but I know I've gone from deciding to eliminate mtg quickly to reduce costs in ER, to maybe-i-should take advantage of these rates - what i've saw at my credit union is 30yr 3.25, 20yr 3.125, 15/10yr 2.875. currently at a 4.375 rate w/17ish yrs left likely.

Even if you were to continue to pay off your mortgage quickly, it still might be beneficial to refinance. My general rule of thumb is that a refi needs to pay for itself in two years.

My rule is I have to save $100/month in interest.   Which is probably about the same as your rule. 

Daisyedwards800

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #136 on: February 27, 2020, 02:52:09 PM »
I got out 70% of my investments a couple weeks ago. The rest is still in but I will leave it alone for 30 years.

I was closely following the news out of China and the rate of infection.  It looked really bad with no signs of slowing down and every time I posted regarding investments, people who actually work on Wall Street etc. kept saying it'll be just like SARS and the flu is worse.  I knew they hadn't priced this in at all.  Glad I chose to get out - first time in 16 years I've ever taken any investments out.

use2betrix

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #137 on: February 27, 2020, 03:06:11 PM »
My cash reserves are a bit fat right now as my 401k and bi-weekly VTSAX contributions are a bit less than my actual savings. I dropped $15k into VTSAX today. Needed to do it anyways. If it keeps dropping Id be willing to put in another $40k-$50k or so in. Either way is fine. If it drops, happy to put it in. If it goes back up, happy to keep the large FU fund as well.

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

MoneyGoatee

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #138 on: February 27, 2020, 03:43:10 PM »

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #139 on: February 27, 2020, 03:46:44 PM »
He's got all kinds of other similar stuff (vintage ICE cars, sports memorabilia) that aren't interesting to millennials either.

I'll do everyone a favor and accept the vintage cars...
« Last Edit: February 27, 2020, 03:49:52 PM by v8rx7guy »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #140 on: February 27, 2020, 04:02:12 PM »

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.

Yeah, looks like a building panic. The market seems to overreact in the short term.   

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #141 on: February 27, 2020, 04:40:38 PM »
Quote
every time I posted regarding investments, people who actually work on Wall Street etc. kept saying it'll be just like SARS and the flu is worse.  I knew they hadn't priced this in at all.

Exactly this, Daisy. I've never timed the market in my life but felt this time it was just too obvious what was going to happen. Plus the market was so overvalued to begin with. I'm hoping to make some extra money as I reinvest, started another thread earlier to discuss how best to do that but most people seem to be more invested in denying this is happening. 

js82

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #142 on: February 27, 2020, 07:38:48 PM »

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.

If you're trying to read tea leaves, consider:

-Coronavirus has a substantially longer documented incubation period than the flu/most other similar illnesses
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm

This considered, I think it(coronavirus, not necessarily the markets) is going to get significantly worse before it gets better - I expect the weather to curb transmission before we have a vaccine available in sufficient quantities to impact the total number of cases (most likely it will initially be targeted towards high-risk populations such as the elderly and medical professionals).  Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.

Personally I'm not trying to time the market, because my previous efforts at doing so have generally yielded poor results.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2020, 07:49:07 PM by js82 »

Joe Schmo

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #143 on: February 27, 2020, 08:02:02 PM »
I havent got much. One comma. I plan on buying as much as I can for as long as its financially responsible to do so. The only problem is that Im not on automatic investments for my vanguard acct so Ill have to make a decision every month on what to buy. 

the_fixer

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #144 on: February 27, 2020, 08:26:55 PM »
Did my taxes last week and was waiting to see what our MAGI ended up being so we know how much we could fund our 2019.

Made the transfer today we will see what happens :)



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MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #145 on: February 28, 2020, 12:15:12 AM »
I wanted to wait for bad quarterly reports in April, but markets and the news are running downhill at an amazing pace.  I'll have to rebalance today, selling bonds and buying stocks.

One way to deal with sequence of returns risk is a "bond tent".  Your bond allocation increases until your retirement date, then decreases.  There's different approaches as to speed, starting and ending points.  Rather than do mine time based, I do it "market drop" based, roughly.

So when the market drops this much in a week, I'll want to not only rebalance, but increase my equity allocation a tiny bit.  Need to act before some good news spoils the fearful mood on the markets.

May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #146 on: February 28, 2020, 01:51:41 AM »
Quote
May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).

Good point!

use2betrix

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #147 on: February 28, 2020, 08:18:08 AM »

Another good day to buy! Ordering another $10k of vtsax tonight.

If you buy now you may catch falling knives, since the market may keep dropping if good news are lacking.  I would wait until at least some positive news come out such as a vaccine coming out (in a few weeks, I heard) or the virus stopping spreading like SARS did.  The SARS crisis had a similar timeline, from winter 2002 to summer 2003.  Dow's lowest point then was on Mar 11, 2003.  I would wait until mid-March or thereabout to decide whether to buy.

If you're trying to read tea leaves, consider:

-Coronavirus has a substantially longer documented incubation period than the flu/most other similar illnesses
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm

This considered, I think it(coronavirus, not necessarily the markets) is going to get significantly worse before it gets better - I expect the weather to curb transmission before we have a vaccine available in sufficient quantities to impact the total number of cases (most likely it will initially be targeted towards high-risk populations such as the elderly and medical professionals).  Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.

Personally I'm not trying to time the market, because my previous efforts at doing so have generally yielded poor results.

I dont typically try and time the market. I have $4k automatically deposited into VTSAX twice every month, and also contribute enough into my 401k each month that Ill max it out each year. I maxed my HSA in January and invested it then as well.

As of earlier this week I had about $120k in my emergency fund. I like the big cushion but really only need around $60k to still feel comfortable. With this in mind, I dont mind timing the market with part of my excessive emergency fund. Better investing it now than it was a month ago. Might still drop more, in which case Im only slowly dumping it in and will keep going.

NotJen

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #148 on: February 28, 2020, 08:51:35 AM »
May also be an opportunity for IRA to Roth Conversions (for those forming a Roth ladder).

Hmmm.  Now you've got me considering market timing....

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #149 on: February 28, 2020, 08:54:04 AM »
-Transmission will go down naturally in the northern hemisphere as temperatures warm

Transmission will likely track with the weather - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets will follow, because irrationality and all that.

It sounds like you were listening to Trump's news press conference about the virus going away in the spring, but the scientists say differently.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-may-not-be-slowed-down-by-warmer-weather-scientists-warn

Quote

Hoping that we make it to warmer weather before the coronavirus possibly arrives in the United States in force?

Dont bother, scientists say. Unlike with the seasonal flu, the change of seasons may not matter much to the coronavirus.

I'm not timing the market, and I'm not buying any more than I normally would.  I think the market has got quite a ways to drop still before it finds a bottom, and we likely will go into a recession with no quick recovery.  Don't try to catch a falling knife.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 08:57:08 AM by American GenX »