Author Topic: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka  (Read 11522 times)

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #50 on: February 28, 2020, 08:24:15 AM »
The market has estimated the future as accurately as possible, and decided on a -12% discount.  I don't know what happens next, the current environment seems to fit Warren Buffet's advice to be "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.Ē

Dow dropped another 1000 points this morning.  It just keeps going down.  Don't try to catch a falling knife.  The worst is yet to come.

DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #51 on: February 28, 2020, 08:54:46 AM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

I'll be identifying as a woman until this blows over.

(It's a joke, try not to be offended)

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #52 on: February 28, 2020, 08:59:32 AM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

I'll be identifying as a woman until this blows over.

(It's a joke, try not to be offended)

If you're not a smoker, it may all even out (reference earlier post in this thread).

DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #53 on: February 28, 2020, 09:06:18 AM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

I'll be identifying as a woman until this blows over.

(It's a joke, try not to be offended)

If you're not a smoker, it may all even out (reference earlier post in this thread).

Well crap.

I already bought a bunch of new clothes.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #54 on: February 28, 2020, 10:00:13 AM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

I'll be identifying as a woman until this blows over.

(It's a joke, try not to be offended)

If you're not a smoker, it may all even out (reference earlier post in this thread).

Well crap.

I already bought a bunch of new clothes.
Pro tip: if you're turning 70 next month, catch the coronavirus now while your odds of surviving are better.  ;)

frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #55 on: February 28, 2020, 10:53:08 AM »
Pro tip: if you're turning 70 next month, catch the coronavirus now while your odds of surviving are better.  ;)


bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #56 on: February 28, 2020, 11:23:14 AM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

I'll be identifying as a woman until this blows over.

(It's a joke, try not to be offended)


thats so funny ....

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #57 on: February 28, 2020, 11:33:29 AM »
it must be tough for high risk people in the middle of this public hysteria.....personally Id rather get it early while I can still get a hospital bed for a few weeks!

these 'scary' statistics showing death rate by age are probably proportional to normal flu vs age categories...

for anyone who is really shitting it you can buy an island off the remote county donegal in ireland for couple 100k...all you need is a well and a fishing rod and your good to go.

i reckon the market drop will stablize as the day traders cash in.....im gambling that the ray dalio statement of this being a significant but short drop like SARS will be right.....unless it mushrooms into other economic issues....

alternatively we might all die and these no point worrying about anything (arent we all going to die anyway?!)....if so I would recommend something like the following https://youtu.be/M4nFSdNNFQw




Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #58 on: February 28, 2020, 11:43:38 AM »
I have to admit itís weird being older with 2 chronic conditions. How did this even happen:)) ?   We are not panicking but glad we are retired so we can limit our exposure.

TheShinyHorse

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #59 on: February 28, 2020, 11:55:47 AM »
Over 20 vaccins are being developped right now. Several are already in testing phases.
A lot of anti-viral drugs are being tested and quite a few seem promising. I don't think we'll be able to contain the spread, but I think the death rate (% wise) will fall in the coming weeks and months in developed nations with good healthcare systems.

Probably a lot of people are infected without any symptoms and stay undetected, so actual rates might already be overestimations. Plus in China the hospitals were overcrowded and people were probably not getting optimal treatment...

The chance of getting the virus are quite low. Chance of getting it + dying are a lot lower even. Be careful, but worrying about it is doing more harm than good.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #60 on: February 28, 2020, 11:57:44 AM »
the main thing is its a great time to buy stock! and even tesla!!!

isnt this what everyone is waiting for?

effigy98

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #61 on: February 28, 2020, 04:21:47 PM »
personally Id rather get it early while I can still get a hospital bed for a few weeks!

I wouldn't. My risk of death might go up from getting infected a 2nd time. There is new data coming out saying people are getting re-infected again so this might be hard for the body to create an immune response. There are rumors (not data to back it) that some re-infected are just dropping dead due to their white blood cells attacking the body.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #62 on: February 28, 2020, 05:13:41 PM »
Well then, In the words of the wise Klingon warrior.....perhaps today is a good day to die.....


Brother Esau

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #63 on: February 28, 2020, 05:21:04 PM »
personally Id rather get it early while I can still get a hospital bed for a few weeks!

I wouldn't. My risk of death might go up from getting infected a 2nd time. There is new data coming out saying people are getting re-infected again so this might be hard for the body to create an immune response. There are rumors (not data to back it) that some re-infected are just dropping dead due to their white blood cells attacking the body.

Zombies

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #64 on: February 28, 2020, 07:36:30 PM »
This is a good time to gain body weight, so that if you do get infected, your body will be able to have energy to fight it off.

former player

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #65 on: February 28, 2020, 07:53:20 PM »
This is a good time to gain body weight, so that if you do get infected, your body will be able to have energy to fight it off.
I'm good, thanks.

spartana

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #66 on: February 28, 2020, 11:44:02 PM »
This is a good time to gain body weight, so that if you do get infected, your body will be able to have energy to fight it off.
I'm good, thanks.
Ah the chubby, the slow, the tasty! Ill look you up when the food runs out ;-).

I'm FIRE and don't have any of those plaque carrier kids so will just sequester myself at home and order Uber Eats.

But seriously I do feel.bad for those who must go out into the world amongst potentially sick people. Hoping it's is just a blip on the radar.
 
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 11:46:13 PM by spartana »

Mostachio

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #67 on: February 29, 2020, 10:41:24 AM »
Zombies

Living in the Rockies, I'm at the very least keeping an eye on how long CV19 takes to make it here. Like a trial run. We're supposed to be the last bastion for the zombie apocalypse, we got a lot to prove!

Telecaster

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #68 on: February 29, 2020, 11:25:41 AM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

I'll be identifying as a woman until this blows over.

(It's a joke, try not to be offended)

I larfed. 

FrugalSaver

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #69 on: February 29, 2020, 01:01:33 PM »
Personally Iím just sick of the media sensationalism of this new flu.

For those with severe health issues and immune system problem itís tough, as is normal annual flu which kills 1 percent who contract it. I would say I empathise but I have very low empathy so I wonít lie....

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....rewatch all of game of thrones and drink fluids.....see you all in 2 weeks if I donít die and prepare for market drop to avail of a sale....

Baz from Northern Ireland....

Hold my beer

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #70 on: February 29, 2020, 05:27:32 PM »
Well well....interesting news....looks like we have a suspected case of corona where I live...Derry Northern Ireland..

Goddamit....this is my finest hour...I will find this person and source this virus to see if I can with stand it....

If there are no more posts from me youíll all know the outcome...


frugledoc

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #71 on: March 01, 2020, 01:29:04 AM »

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....rewatch all of game of thrones and drink fluids.....see you all in 2 weeks if I donít die and prepare for market drop to avail of a sale....
.

Have you ever had the flu?  I had it once, in my twenties, and I have never wished for death more.  I felt so bad and hurt so much that I WANTED to die, but was too weak to do anything about it.  If it had lasted any longer than 3-4 days, I probably would have died because I wasn't even eating or drinking--that's how sick I was. 

Some people get the flu and it's no big deal.  But some strains are worse than others.  Don't be too quick to assume it's going to be like getting a bad cold. 

oh, and with a respiratory ailment, please don't take codeine without someone knowing you're doing that.  If a bug gets into your lungs, you want everything working and not tamped down with opiates.

Sounds nasty,  must have been Man Flu!

former player

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #72 on: March 01, 2020, 02:16:20 AM »
Is there any evidence yet whether the higher risk for older people is due only to their being older or, instead, is due to more of them having pre-existing conditions?

Asking for a friend.

Gin1984

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #73 on: March 01, 2020, 07:04:40 AM »
Is there any evidence yet whether the higher risk for older people is due only to their being older or, instead, is due to more of them having pre-existing conditions?

Asking for a friend.
Honestly, no. We don't know enough. It likely is a combination though.

GoCubsGo

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #74 on: March 01, 2020, 09:41:51 AM »
Well well....interesting news....looks like we have a suspected case of corona where I live...Derry Northern Ireland..

Goddamit....this is my finest hour...I will find this person and source this virus to see if I can with stand it....

If there are no more posts from me youíll all know the outcome...

Haha, thanks for the laugh. God's speed young man. 

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #75 on: March 01, 2020, 02:54:28 PM »
I read a half sane article today that the stats for mortality focused proportionally heavier within age groups whose symptoms were more severe.

Those who have less severe symptoms are not fully represented in the data...itís fecking biased data!.....

ice_beard

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #76 on: March 01, 2020, 04:02:12 PM »

For those who agree with OP ("bring it on"), maybe it's worth buying equities at a discount?  According to morningstar, VTI fell -11.76% over this week (except Friday).  The market has estimated the future as accurately as possible, and decided on a -12% discount.  I don't know what happens next, the current environment seems to fit Warren Buffet's advice to be "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.Ē

Many/most in this community are already greatly invested in the stock market. Not much ability to be greedy at this point if you had already bought into the ďput it all in VTSAXĒ mantra.


And I've always hesitated at the idea of investing every dollar I have the second I have it.  Hence I keep a pretty robust "e-fund" that does cover six months of Bay Area living expenses, but it also serves as a cash reserve for when sales like this come along. 
I'm a bargain hunter.  At the grocery store, when looking for new shoes, etc.  Why wouldn't I be one when I'm shopping for investments? 
Does anyone else consider it less than optimal planning to not be prepared for such an event if you are so invested in the concept of FIRE?

I can hear it already...... "But but but.... you missed out holding cash!!" 
I've still been buying plenty of (expensive) equities at regular intervals, but not as much as I could have over the past couple years. 
With all that said, what is happening now at this point in the game matches my tolerance for risk. 
 
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 04:04:34 PM by ice_beard »

Telecaster

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #77 on: March 01, 2020, 04:50:37 PM »

And I've always hesitated at the idea of investing every dollar I have the second I have it.  Hence I keep a pretty robust "e-fund" that does cover six months of Bay Area living expenses, but it also serves as a cash reserve for when sales like this come along. 
I'm a bargain hunter.  At the grocery store, when looking for new shoes, etc.  Why wouldn't I be one when I'm shopping for investments? 
Does anyone else consider it less than optimal planning to not be prepared for such an event if you are so invested in the concept of FIRE?

I can hear it already...... "But but but.... you missed out holding cash!!" 
I've still been buying plenty of (expensive) equities at regular intervals, but not as much as I could have over the past couple years. 
With all that said, what is happening now at this point in the game matches my tolerance for risk.

It is certainly true that the final return is dependent on the initial price.  Warren Buffett hasn't made any major acquisitions in four years, presumably because stuff is too expensive.  It's not like he doesn't have the cash on hand.

However, I don't know of a reliable way to figure out when the market itself is on sale.  That's not necessarily true for individual stocks.  BRK does seem to be on sale, for example.   So now where are back to where in where in, what October?   Is the market on sale now, but wasn't back then?  Was it risky then, but not now? 

DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #78 on: March 01, 2020, 04:59:21 PM »

And I've always hesitated at the idea of investing every dollar I have the second I have it.  Hence I keep a pretty robust "e-fund" that does cover six months of Bay Area living expenses, but it also serves as a cash reserve for when sales like this come along. 
I'm a bargain hunter.  At the grocery store, when looking for new shoes, etc.  Why wouldn't I be one when I'm shopping for investments? 
Does anyone else consider it less than optimal planning to not be prepared for such an event if you are so invested in the concept of FIRE?

I can hear it already...... "But but but.... you missed out holding cash!!" 
I've still been buying plenty of (expensive) equities at regular intervals, but not as much as I could have over the past couple years. 
With all that said, what is happening now at this point in the game matches my tolerance for risk.

It is certainly true that the final return is dependent on the initial price.  Warren Buffett hasn't made any major acquisitions in four years, presumably because stuff is too expensive.  It's not like he doesn't have the cash on hand.

However, I don't know of a reliable way to figure out when the market itself is on sale.  That's not necessarily true for individual stocks.  BRK does seem to be on sale, for example.   So now where are back to where in where in, what October?   Is the market on sale now, but wasn't back then?  Was it risky then, but not now?

Buffett has also said that he is only interested in slaying elephants.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #79 on: March 01, 2020, 05:37:32 PM »
I read a half sane article today that the stats for mortality focused proportionally heavier within age groups whose symptoms were more severe.

Those who have less severe symptoms are not fully represented in the data...itís fecking biased data!.....

Well yes, "confirmed" cases are coming almost exclusively from those being hospitalized, hence the data is already biased towards those who are in bad shape to begin with.  It would be like looking at the mortality rate of the flu for only those who are hospitalized.  The total number of infections is likely several orders of magnitude higher, and hence the mortality rate is likely much lower than the data would indicate. I read that the estimated mortality rate is closer to 0.6%. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #80 on: March 01, 2020, 06:22:14 PM »
I can hear it already...... "But but but.... you missed out holding cash!!" 
I've still been buying plenty of (expensive) equities at regular intervals, but not as much as I could have over the past couple years. 
With all that said, what is happening now at this point in the game matches my tolerance for risk.

In the end YOU, not a bunch of internet strangers, YOU have to be comfortable with your investments. There are a handful of posters on this forum who weíre/are not so keen on being heavily invested in (US) equities. Iím one of them. Iím now in a position to invest as a result of being very low equities exposure and will be diving in if prices get to somewhere in the range I think they should be. Perhaps I should feel vindicated this week? To some extent I do. But for the most part I donít. Because I missed out on a LOT of gains in the mean time. In retrospect, I should have piled 100% into equities from about 2009. By the time I recognized the error of my ways, the market was already at nosebleed valuations.

We are where we are. We canít change the past and can only control how we react to the present.

former player

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #81 on: March 02, 2020, 02:02:08 AM »
I read a half sane article today that the stats for mortality focused proportionally heavier within age groups whose symptoms were more severe.

Those who have less severe symptoms are not fully represented in the data...itís fecking biased data!.....

Well yes, "confirmed" cases are coming almost exclusively from those being hospitalized, hence the data is already biased towards those who are in bad shape to begin with.  It would be like looking at the mortality rate of the flu for only those who are hospitalized.  The total number of infections is likely several orders of magnitude higher, and hence the mortality rate is likely much lower than the data would indicate. I read that the estimated mortality rate is closer to 0.6%.
I'm also now wondering whether if resources (medical staff, hospital beds, ICU, ventilators) are in short supply the younger and more economically active part of the population might be getting priority?

talltexan

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #82 on: March 02, 2020, 07:08:16 AM »
New York Times' The Daily, and Vox's Today Explained both have good episodes out right now about the coronavirus.

The short version is it's too soon to tell, but it could potentially be pretty bad...or not.

Sounds like every episode of CNBC.

My FiL admitted that most of what he's heard about the virus comes from this network. I've started calling them "Corona NBC" to rag on him.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #83 on: March 02, 2020, 12:36:27 PM »
I bought some vti this morning....seems to be stabilizing....

I've also paid over 4k sterling for wee family holiday in canaries for Easter ....now way I'm losing that money even I get corno I'm going

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #84 on: March 02, 2020, 01:33:18 PM »
I bought some vti this morning....seems to be stabilizing....


Seems good time to buy but last thing I"d say is it's stabilizing.  Markets have been real choppy.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #85 on: March 02, 2020, 01:43:56 PM »
I bought some vti this morning....seems to be stabilizing....

CBOE VIX is over 35. Still some fun ní games ahead.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #86 on: March 02, 2020, 03:26:34 PM »
Suppose itís not the best time to point our weíre at the end of a 10 year run and havenít seen the recession yet....not that it matters much to buy and holders




Reynold

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #87 on: March 02, 2020, 04:02:34 PM »
Well well....interesting news....looks like we have a suspected case of corona where I live...Derry Northern Ireland..

Goddamit....this is my finest hour...I will find this person and source this virus to see if I can with stand it....

If there are no more posts from me youíll all know the outcome...

Heh, we were discussing at work that ideally you want to be one of the FIRST people who get it, you'll get a cushy hospital quarantine.  Areas that have been hard hit (regions of China, South Korea, Italy) have had to turn a lot of people away from hospitals because of lack of capacity. 

And I agree with an earlier poster that mortality rates are hard to predict for this, because standards for testing have been very different in different countries.  Some are just testing people who come into hospitals with significant symptoms, which may only be 20% of the populations, some are testing everyone who came in contact with a known case, which turns up a lot more positives with minor symptoms who don't end up dying.  The former countries will show a lot higher mortality.  Iran, for example, probably has many thousands of undiagnosed cases based on their death toll, and I'm betting there are not many test kits there.  The medical system has moved with remarkable speed, IMHO, to produce test methods for something unknown just a couple of months ago, but even developed countries must be rather short on kits.  It does seem to be pretty contagious. 

Predictions are that this will have a substantially greater economic impact than SARs, though, China is an order of magnitude more important as both a producer and consumer than it was back then, and international travel and trade in general is much higher. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #88 on: March 03, 2020, 05:12:04 AM »
Is there any evidence yet whether the higher risk for older people is due only to their being older or, instead, is due to more of them having pre-existing conditions?

Asking for a friend.
China published a study involving 44,000 people with the virus.  According to that data, age is a huge risk - and diseases are an added risk.  My reading of the data is that age is more significant: someone in their 80s has a 1 in 7 chance of death, while for someone in their 30s, it's 1 in 500.

Samuel

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #89 on: March 03, 2020, 09:15:54 AM »

I just posted in another thread about reoccurrence of COVID-19 after being cured and likely community spread now occurring in the U.S.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2569312/#msg2569312

And regarding mortality rates:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

    39 or yonger, the death rate 0.2%.
    in their 40s, it is 0.4%
    in their 50s, it is 1.3%,
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

I would take these rates with a grain of salt, scientists are saying it's way too soon to determine the actual fatality rates.  They need a lot more data and time for the rates to be statistically signifcant.  Total infections are likely already in the several hundreds of thousands.

I listened to a podcast yesterday with an expert who speculated that the overall fatality rate will end up around .5-.6% (vs .1-.2% for seasonal flu) once the full analysis is complete (a long time from now). There are a lot of mild undiagnosed cases out there that aren't being factored in yet. 

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #90 on: March 03, 2020, 03:59:49 PM »

I just posted in another thread about reoccurrence of COVID-19 after being cured and likely community spread now occurring in the U.S.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2569312/#msg2569312

And regarding mortality rates:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

    39 or yonger, the death rate 0.2%.
    in their 40s, it is 0.4%
    in their 50s, it is 1.3%,
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

To follow up on my previous post on this matter, I wanted to post this update that the WHO has announced that the fatality rate is significantly higher than the previous figure given.

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #91 on: March 03, 2020, 04:15:55 PM »
Some good from coronavirus:

It prompted us to resupply our emergency stores last week. Last night, a tornado hit our town. Weíre okay (house undamaged as well), but weíll be without power for a couple days or so. But we have plenty of food and water.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #92 on: March 03, 2020, 06:47:27 PM »
Read something today by an immunologist that was interesting.  He hypothesizes covid-19 has been in our population for awhile, but any deaths were likely attributed to the flu.  We're only now testing for it.   

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #93 on: March 03, 2020, 06:50:16 PM »

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

This is based only on confirmed cases, actual cases again are likely several magnitudes higher.  Scientists are estimating actual mortality rate to be ~ 0.6%.

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #94 on: March 03, 2020, 07:14:02 PM »
Scientists are estimating actual mortality rate to be ~ 0.6%.

Because there are no scientists that work at the CDC and they don't have a captive population to study on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #95 on: March 03, 2020, 07:24:50 PM »
Scientists are estimating actual mortality rate to be ~ 0.6%.

Because there are no scientists that work at the CDC and they don't have a captive population to study on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Not enough data yet, it will be a long time before there is an accurate mortality rate statistic.  Cruise ship demographic is likely not a very good sampling of the general population due to age etc.

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/419

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #96 on: March 03, 2020, 07:41:44 PM »
Scientists are estimating actual mortality rate to be ~ 0.6%.

Because there are no scientists that work at the CDC and they don't have a captive population to study on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Not enough data yet, it will be a long time before there is an accurate mortality rate statistic.

So which is it? Is there enough data for "scientists" or isn't there?

Also, there are 93,123 confirmed cases (as of this minute). I have a hard time buying the "not enough data" argument. Will we get better data? Sure. Will we refine our understanding of the situation? Absolutely. But "not enough data" when we have 93K cases of a disease that has been spreading for over two months is an absurd argument.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #97 on: March 03, 2020, 07:41:59 PM »

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

This is based only on confirmed cases, actual cases again are likely several magnitudes higher.  Scientists are estimating actual mortality rate to be ~ 0.6%.

I haven't seen any evidence of that, so I'm sticking with what healthcare authorities are saying.

Before the updated higher fatality rate was announced by the WHO, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White Houseís coronavirus task force said, ďIf you look at the people who have just come to the attention of the health authorities, thatís 2 to 2-and-a-half percent,Ē Fauci said. ďBut even if it goes down to 1 percent, thatís still very, very serious.Ē

Based on the updated figures, he might have said something more like, "But even if it goes down to 2 percent, thatís still very, very serious.Ē

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #98 on: March 03, 2020, 07:45:18 PM »
Cruise ship demographic is likely not a very good sampling of the general population due to age etc.

The vast majority of the Diamond Princess passengers that were active cases are still active and haven't recovered, so the death rate may be much higher than what is currently stated since active cases are part of the calculation.  And while they might have been older on average, you wouldn't expect them to be in that bad of health if they are out on a cruise.

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #99 on: March 03, 2020, 07:50:38 PM »
The China study that puts the fatality rate at just over 3% is some of the most convincing data I've seen yet.

They're now churning out about 1.5M tests a week and trying to test everyone who can into any contact with a person who later turned out to have the virus. So they're catching mild and moderate cases that may still be getting missed in countries where testing kits are limited (like the USA).