Author Topic: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka  (Read 11474 times)

bthewalls

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Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« on: February 25, 2020, 03:30:38 PM »
Personally Iím just sick of the media sensationalism of this new flu.

For those with severe health issues and immune system problem itís tough, as is normal annual flu which kills 1 percent who contract it. I would say I empathise but I have very low empathy so I wonít lie....

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....rewatch all of game of thrones and drink fluids.....see you all in 2 weeks if I donít die and prepare for market drop to avail of a sale....

Baz from Northern Ireland....

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2020, 06:30:17 PM »
Mortality rate is much higher with each progressively older age group.  If it doesn't get you, it might get someone close to you.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 06:56:22 PM by American GenX »

BicycleB

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2020, 06:43:58 PM »
Personally Iím just sick of the media sensationalism of this new flu.

For those with severe health issues and immune system problem itís tough, as is normal annual flu which kills 1 percent who contract it. I would say I empathise but I have very low empathy so I wonít lie....

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....rewatch all of game of thrones and drink fluids.....see you all in 2 weeks if I donít die and prepare for market drop to avail of a sale....

Baz from Northern Ireland....

You might feel sicker if you contract it. I read a while ago that while 2% were dying of coronavirus, 10% were in hospital.

I don't know stats for Ireland, crunching numbers from America's CDC, flu fatality rate is much less than than 1%. Roughly 0.1% in 2018-19, for example (34,157 / 35,520,883). Are Irish really 10 times more susceptible to flu than Americans? If not, it looks like covid-19 is about 20 times more fatal per case than flu.

Feel as little empathy as you want, but try not to cough on other people.

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2020, 08:39:40 PM »
Personally Iím just sick of the media sensationalism of this new flu.

For those with severe health issues and immune system problem itís tough, as is normal annual flu which kills 1 percent who contract it. I would say I empathise but I have very low empathy so I wonít lie....

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....rewatch all of game of thrones and drink fluids.....see you all in 2 weeks if I donít die and prepare for market drop to avail of a sale....

Baz from Northern Ireland....
I got the ordinary flu a couple of decades ago as a healthy 30 something.  I have very nasty memories of it all going as usual until that one night I spent sitting up in bed breathing very carefully and wondering whether to call for an ambulance.

Also, I saw some figures out of China that had 80% of the COVID19 infected who got mechanical ventilation died.  If this thing gets you bad, chances are high the medics won't be able to save you whatever they do.

Hoping for the best, but I think I'll get that draft Will signed in the next few days just in case.

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2020, 08:43:11 PM »
For those with severe health issues and immune system problem itís tough, as is normal annual flu which kills 1 percent who contract it.

You are very wrong about your flu mortality rate. Seasonal flu mortality rate varies by season but is usually quoted as ~0.1% worldwide.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 09:02:45 PM by PDXTabs »

mrmoonymartian

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2020, 12:53:18 AM »
Pros: good for natural selection, the environment (reducing overpopulation and travel), savers (stocks going on sale), news ratings, healthcare industry

Cons: bad for retirees, contractees or people who are fearful or empathic.

Seems to me that there is likely to be a negative correlation between <your age> and <your 'bring it on mutha fucka'-ness>.

Since I'm median age for my country, I should probably abstain from voting.

wienerdog

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2020, 06:27:06 AM »
I think if you look at the numbers you see people that already have health issues make up a bunch of the deaths and how old you are.  Keep your immune system healthy and your body knows what to do with this type of stuff.  The immune system is a wonderful thing as it knows exactly what to do at the right time.  Don't be afraid to play in the dirt every once in a while as a healthy immune system needs tested every now and then.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/


DadJokes

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2020, 06:41:31 AM »
I've played enough Pandemic to know that all we need to do is get three red cards and go to China to stop it.

talltexan

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2020, 06:57:58 AM »
R0 for the Corona virus is not known yet, but I'm seeing a range of estimates that go up as high as 6.6.

For the sake of comparison, ebola's R0 was 2, and SARS had an R0 of 4.

Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2020, 07:24:40 AM »
Personally Iím just sick of the media sensationalism of this new flu.

For those with severe health issues and immune system problem itís tough, as is normal annual flu which kills 1 percent who contract it. I would say I empathise but I have very low empathy so I wonít lie....

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....rewatch all of game of thrones and drink fluids.....see you all in 2 weeks if I donít die and prepare for market drop to avail of a sale....

Baz from Northern Ireland....
I got the ordinary flu a couple of decades ago as a healthy 30 something.  I have very nasty memories of it all going as usual until that one night I spent sitting up in bed breathing very carefully and wondering whether to call for an ambulance.

Also, I saw some figures out of China that had 80% of the COVID19 infected who got mechanical ventilation died.  If this thing gets you bad, chances are high the medics won't be able to save you whatever they do.

Hoping for the best, but I think I'll get that draft Will signed in the next few days just in case.

I got H1N1 and felt like I was going to die.
I had to drag my virtually lifeless corpse across the floor to go to the bathroom for a solid week, then I got opportunistic pneumonia. Overall, I was utterly non functional for 6 weeks, and was fatigued for an additional month after that. It sucked balls.

I got it AGAIN!!! two years later still working in a hospital. Not nearly as bad, but I recognized it right away and got it confirmed.

I'm not even a little bit worried about dying from coronavirus, and I'm not at all worried about my investments, and I'm not stocking up on food or meds any more than I normally do, and I'm definitely not worried about any impact on DH's job, and my job doesn't matter as I'm retiring anyway.

I'm not too worried about my immunocompromised mom because she's an old pro at being prepared and doing what she can to protect herself, and if she gets it, then what will be will be, like when she contracted whooping cough from visiting the hospital I worked at when there was an outbreak (Seeing a theme here? Don't go to hospitals during viral outbreaks if you can avoid it).

I mean, I worry about her dying from all sorts of shit, not just nasty viruses, so worrying about my mom is just kind of a low-grade constant stress, so this doesn't really change anything.

Do I expect there to be some impact on me? Sure, probably. I'm not sure what exactly, but I'm fairly confident that it won't be anything that I can't roll with.

I have an upcoming trip to Europe that could feasibly be affected, but that's not a huge deal. I canceled a trip for this year already and lost a huge deposit I made because of serious health issues last year. Cancelling vacations and losing money is unpleasant, but no big deal and totally manageable.

The people who will be most affected by this are the most vulnerable. The least healthy will be the most at risk for direct affects of the virus, and those with the least robust lifestyles will be the most affected by the possible systemic disruptions.

These are the same people who are most affected by the railway blockages right now in Canada.

So yes, I am very very concerned for those who are medically and economically vulnerable. I'm not sure panic helps them in any way, but I am deeply concerned for the affects on them.

For me? I can't even come up with a personal risk that I should be actively vigilant about beyond my normal precautions.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2020, 07:36:53 AM »
China put out a research paper with figures I saw summarized in a BBC article, and match the website mentioned by wienerdog.  There's a 3:2 ratio of men to women dying from the virus, which means the 80 year old death rate probably looks like 18% (men) and 12% (women), rather than the overall 15%.  Age is a huge factor, but for people in their 30s it's 1 in 500 according to that data - rare, and similar to the normal flu.

Since this is the investment's forum, it's worth saying the risk to the markets is more severe.  I have no idea how many factories are idle, with all the workers at home.  Hubei is a hub for automobile manufacturing, meaning there are cars made elsewhere that can't be finished.  They need parts from a supply chain that's broken.  When the virus hits a new town, the place goes on lockdown, which stops a lot of economic activity.  During the SARS outbreak, the market impact was -8% I heard, and until this week the stock market impact was nothing like that.  Now Mon/Tuesday the market fell almost -8% in two days, so it's catching up... but the hit to economic output has to be larger.

There's also places that are ignorant or suppressing information.  8 deaths and only 43 cases?  Iran's data makes no sense.  Next day, the number of cases doubled... and the health minister who didn't believe in quarantine... has quarantined himself because he caught it.  Now that Iran is reporting 15 deaths, I hope they realize the problem is in the hundreds... South Korea has fewer deaths, but a thousand cases so far.  Denying there's a problem can spread it further... and the economic problem could grow.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 07:39:25 AM by MustacheAndaHalf »

Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2020, 08:24:05 AM »
China put out a research paper with figures I saw summarized in a BBC article, and match the website mentioned by wienerdog.  There's a 3:2 ratio of men to women dying from the virus, which means the 80 year old death rate probably looks like 18% (men) and 12% (women), rather than the overall 15%.  Age is a huge factor, but for people in their 30s it's 1 in 500 according to that data - rare, and similar to the normal flu.

Since this is the investment's forum, it's worth saying the risk to the markets is more severe.  I have no idea how many factories are idle, with all the workers at home.  Hubei is a hub for automobile manufacturing, meaning there are cars made elsewhere that can't be finished.  They need parts from a supply chain that's broken.  When the virus hits a new town, the place goes on lockdown, which stops a lot of economic activity.  During the SARS outbreak, the market impact was -8% I heard, and until this week the stock market impact was nothing like that.  Now Mon/Tuesday the market fell almost -8% in two days, so it's catching up... but the hit to economic output has to be larger.

There's also places that are ignorant or suppressing information.  8 deaths and only 43 cases?  Iran's data makes no sense.  Next day, the number of cases doubled... and the health minister who didn't believe in quarantine... has quarantined himself because he caught it.  Now that Iran is reporting 15 deaths, I hope they realize the problem is in the hundreds... South Korea has fewer deaths, but a thousand cases so far.  Denying there's a problem can spread it further... and the economic problem could grow.

I keep asking the same question when this is mentioned and no one ever seems to answer me, but shouldn't all of our investment strategies already be designed to withstand a major market upset? Isn't that the entire point?

If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?

Stimpy

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2020, 08:40:28 AM »
I keep asking the same question when this is mentioned and no one ever seems to answer me, but shouldn't all of our investment strategies already be designed to withstand a major market upset? Isn't that the entire point?
In theory indexing  everything should be able to do so except for a absolute crash to zero.  So yes but it is Human nature to worry and... The news likes to poke the pig!


If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Should we be worried, no.  Should we watch and invest more if we can... yes.   
All prepared, is relative to where some of us are on the FIRE journey, but in general yes, as far as the markets are concerned anyway.

Am I missing something?
If so, then we all are.


There, easy answers I think....   Meh, I am going to not worry and "Buy The DIP!"

Captain FIRE

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2020, 08:41:57 AM »
Keep your immune system healthy and your body knows what to do with this type of stuff. 

For those with severe health issues and immune system problem itís tough, as is normal annual flu which kills 1 percent who contract it. I would say I empathise but I have very low empathy so I wonít lie....

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....[snip]

Guess I shouldn't have gotten pregnant.

I mean....easy for a generally healthy person to say just be healthy, but people don't always have a choice about their immune system.  So heck yeah, I'm somewhat worried because I'm immune compromised right now, who knows if there will be an outbreak in 2 months when I'm at the hospital for the delivery, and then I'll have a tiny newborn with no immune system who along with the elderly is in the most vulnerable population.  (And as pregnant woman, I'm very limited in what drugs I can safely take right now if I do get it.)  At least with the flu there's something I can do about it, such as get my annual flu shot, which decreases the risk of death and the severity of the illness. 

But my 3 yo in daycare is a petri dish, so saying "don't worry, just wash your hands frequently!" is beyond frustrating naivetť optimism to hear because those folks have clearly never seen a preschooler in action touching/licking everything just to see what it is/what will happen.  Sure they are learning to cough in their elbow, but in reality their motor skills aren't so great so most of the time they are coughing in each others/my face all day, every day because well, petri dish a la Diamond Princess.

I'm not going to run around like Chicken Little screaming that the sky is falling (and I happily took advantage of the drop to fund my son's 529 in part yesterday), but some understanding that not everyone can be so blasť would be nice.

GoCubsGo

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2020, 08:45:18 AM »

If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?



I guess if this turns into a recession which on average takes a couple of years to rebound from (post WW2) that could definitely impact some plans to retire.  Unless you've done a heavy glidepath into bonds (like 80%), this could definitely affect those people.  SORR risk is also a problem if you haven't planned for it.  We see questions on the forum every week from people who don't know what that is.


Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2020, 08:51:08 AM »


If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?

I guess if this turns into a recession which on average takes a couple of years to rebound from (post WW2) that could definitely impact some plans to retire.  Unless you've done a heavy glidepath into bonds (like 80%), this could definitely affect those people.  SORR risk is also a problem if you haven't planned for it.  We see questions on the forum every week from people who don't know what that is.
[/quote]

Yeah, but that's not usually questions from people who are actually ready to retire, it's from people on their path of figuring out what steps they will need to take to account for sequence of return risk.

Realistically, I expect any reasonae Mustachian who has done more than a few weeks of research on the matter to understand pretty well that SORR is something they need to account for before they up and quit forever to live off of their investments.

This population is more likely to be wildly over prepared for a black swan event than under prepared.

I can, however, see someone who is very close to retiring choosing not to pull the plug right now just because it's too much of a test of their intestinal fortitude, but again, that would be a symptom of being over prepared as opposed to actually being overly vulnerable to market impacts.

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2020, 09:18:35 AM »
R0 for the Corona virus is not known yet, but I'm seeing a range of estimates that go up as high as 6.6.

For the sake of comparison, ebola's R0 was 2, and SARS had an R0 of 4.

I thought about mentioning this but I don't know how good the current estimates are.

For reference H1N1 R0 was ~1.5.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2020, 09:31:58 AM »

I keep asking the same question when this is mentioned and no one ever seems to answer me, but shouldn't all of our investment strategies already be designed to withstand a major market upset? Isn't that the entire point?

If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?

Yes we are supposed to be prepared, and no we arenít as prepared as we want to think we are. Until youíve watched your wealth drop like a stone and Soldiered On, you donít really know how youíll react.

I think Iíll do just fine if this plays out like I think it might. Iíve been quieter of late about my views on equities in general and cap weighted US index funds in particular. My opinion hasnít really changed though and if we see a black swan event, Iím in a good position to buy while on sale.

theolympians

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2020, 09:54:58 AM »
IMO the reporting on the virus has been over the top. Secondly, I don't really trust the info coming out of China, which makes it harder to ascertain risk. I realize people are dying, but flu kills thousands in the USA each year.

For those who have been tracking this much more closely: is this "just another" flu strain?

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2020, 10:02:02 AM »
For those who have been tracking this much more closely: is this "just another" flu strain?

The mortality rate is ~20x higher than flu and the R0 (how many people get it, how infectious it is) is higher, but we don't know exactly how much higher yet.

ketchup

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2020, 10:03:04 AM »
This is the first post I've seen with someone talking about re-watching all of Game of Thrones as a positive thing.  Season eight ruined it all for me.

Also, I'm not worried about the Coronavirus given my own personal geography (IL).  I was at the international terminal of ORD over the weekend picking someone up and I saw a surprising amount of face masks (maybe 1 in 20 people), so clearly my view is not shared by everyone.

harvestbook

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2020, 10:58:49 AM »
By the time you think you need to take precautions, you've probably already been exposed.

dougules

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2020, 11:11:49 AM »
Even if this strain turns out to be equal to the flu, the chance to completely contain a new disease is worth a lot.  Imagine if we had had the chance to stop transmission of the flu when it first appeared. 

AdrianC

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2020, 11:54:39 AM »
R0 for the Corona virus is not known yet, but I'm seeing a range of estimates that go up as high as 6.6.

For the sake of comparison, ebola's R0 was 2, and SARS had an R0 of 4.

I thought about mentioning this but I don't know how good the current estimates are.

For reference H1N1 R0 was ~1.5.

Had to look up R0:

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number

R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and havenít been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.

BlueHouse

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2020, 12:03:38 PM »

Fuck it...bring it on....paracetamol and ibuprofen is in....codeine to pass a few days....rewatch all of game of thrones and drink fluids.....see you all in 2 weeks if I donít die and prepare for market drop to avail of a sale....
.

Have you ever had the flu?  I had it once, in my twenties, and I have never wished for death more.  I felt so bad and hurt so much that I WANTED to die, but was too weak to do anything about it.  If it had lasted any longer than 3-4 days, I probably would have died because I wasn't even eating or drinking--that's how sick I was. 

Some people get the flu and it's no big deal.  But some strains are worse than others.  Don't be too quick to assume it's going to be like getting a bad cold. 

oh, and with a respiratory ailment, please don't take codeine without someone knowing you're doing that.  If a bug gets into your lungs, you want everything working and not tamped down with opiates.

Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2020, 12:14:51 PM »

I keep asking the same question when this is mentioned and no one ever seems to answer me, but shouldn't all of our investment strategies already be designed to withstand a major market upset? Isn't that the entire point?

If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?

Yes we are supposed to be prepared, and no we arenít as prepared as we want to think we are. Until youíve watched your wealth drop like a stone and Soldiered On, you donít really know how youíll react.

I think Iíll do just fine if this plays out like I think it might. Iíve been quieter of late about my views on equities in general and cap weighted US index funds in particular. My opinion hasnít really changed though and if we see a black swan event, Iím in a good position to buy while on sale.

Okay...sure...

But that just supports my point that we *should* have plans in place to anticipate this kind of thing in our investing lifetime. I never once said that people should find those plans easy, just that we should all have them.

Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2020, 12:31:37 PM »
You wonít feel so cavalier if your older relatives start dropping like flies.  I had pneumonia at 45 when I was in excellent health. I was knocked down for a month. Fast forward 20 years and I now have 2 chronic conditions and my husband has one.

chevy1956

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2020, 03:38:18 PM »
China put out a research paper with figures I saw summarized in a BBC article, and match the website mentioned by wienerdog.  There's a 3:2 ratio of men to women dying from the virus, which means the 80 year old death rate probably looks like 18% (men) and 12% (women), rather than the overall 15%.  Age is a huge factor, but for people in their 30s it's 1 in 500 according to that data - rare, and similar to the normal flu.

Since this is the investment's forum, it's worth saying the risk to the markets is more severe.  I have no idea how many factories are idle, with all the workers at home.  Hubei is a hub for automobile manufacturing, meaning there are cars made elsewhere that can't be finished.  They need parts from a supply chain that's broken.  When the virus hits a new town, the place goes on lockdown, which stops a lot of economic activity.  During the SARS outbreak, the market impact was -8% I heard, and until this week the stock market impact was nothing like that.  Now Mon/Tuesday the market fell almost -8% in two days, so it's catching up... but the hit to economic output has to be larger.

There's also places that are ignorant or suppressing information.  8 deaths and only 43 cases?  Iran's data makes no sense.  Next day, the number of cases doubled... and the health minister who didn't believe in quarantine... has quarantined himself because he caught it.  Now that Iran is reporting 15 deaths, I hope they realize the problem is in the hundreds... South Korea has fewer deaths, but a thousand cases so far.  Denying there's a problem can spread it further... and the economic problem could grow.

I keep asking the same question when this is mentioned and no one ever seems to answer me, but shouldn't all of our investment strategies already be designed to withstand a major market upset? Isn't that the entire point?

If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?

I agree with you but I think times like this may people reassess their approach. Gold is a classic example. In times like this it probably goes up. I still wouldn't hold it because I don't believe times like this last very long. Then you are stuck with a poorly performing asset.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2020, 03:44:13 PM »
You wonít feel so cavalier if your older relatives start dropping like flies.

Yes, with some younger ones here and there as well, because it's still far more fatal than the regular flu, and there's no vaccine.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2020, 03:44:37 PM »
Christ guys..must apologise...caffeine and Chevy chase sense of humour.


celerystalks

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2020, 04:20:37 PM »
The flu is no joke.  It is common. but anyone who has ever has had an acute case of it can tell you it is no picnic.  Even for a healthy person it makes one feel like they are about to die. Aches, pains, chills, sensitivity to light, feeling of having swallowed glass shards and not wanting to eat or drink anything. And it lasts the better part of a week.  For people who are not healthy the flu is deadly.

This corona virus apparently often results in  pneumonia.so Ill people have trouble breathing and have a secondary infection. And they are hacking and coughing contagious droplets of sputum everywhere.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2020, 06:38:32 PM »
But my 3 yo in daycare is a petri dish, so saying "don't worry, just wash your hands frequently!" is beyond frustrating naivetť optimism to hear because those folks have clearly never seen a preschooler in action touching/licking everything just to see what it is/what will happen.
In case it's reassuring, for people ages 10-39 there's only a 1 in 500 chance that someone who catches the coronavirus dies from it.  There's been zero deaths for children ages 0-9.  Children just seem to shrug it off, often without symptoms.

Here's the CDC assessment for coronavirus and pregnancy - but just to warn you, it's basically "we don't know".
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/pregnancy-faq.html

Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #32 on: February 26, 2020, 08:59:16 PM »
At 65 I would prefer to live 20 more years but I am super happy that young people and kids arenít dying. I would die before seeing that happen.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #33 on: February 27, 2020, 07:52:21 AM »
I've had really bad flu before....once is Thailand and it was really really bad....but know what, it's a distant memory.

However, I think ray dalio has called this one wrong cause he said corna would be a blip....given the scale of corporate debt I reckon were about to see a major correction...I'm actually ok with that cause I want to buy cheap.

On a sombre note...we're all gonna die at some point...Anthony demello used to meditate on his passing so that he could accept it more and prevent fear of death from controlling him in life! ....I've done this myself and recommended it

Baz

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #34 on: February 27, 2020, 07:57:03 AM »

I keep asking the same question when this is mentioned and no one ever seems to answer me, but shouldn't all of our investment strategies already be designed to withstand a major market upset? Isn't that the entire point?

If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?

Yes we are supposed to be prepared, and no we arenít as prepared as we want to think we are. Until youíve watched your wealth drop like a stone and Soldiered On, you donít really know how youíll react.

I think Iíll do just fine if this plays out like I think it might. Iíve been quieter of late about my views on equities in general and cap weighted US index funds in particular. My opinion hasnít really changed though and if we see a black swan event, Iím in a good position to buy while on sale.

Okay...sure...

But that just supports my point that we *should* have plans in place to anticipate this kind of thing in our investing lifetime. I never once said that people should find those plans easy, just that we should all have them.

Yes we *should*, but I'm an older person (50s) who WAS quite close to hitting my number. I've been listening to people for the past few years tell me that I'm investing for the next 30 years, not for the next 5.  That makes sense and I took on additional risk for that.  But it doesn't make me feel any better right NOW. 
My feelings may also be more acute than usual because I've been waiting to jump into the "Race from $2M to $4M" group.  I jumped into that group for ONE DAY and then had to leave.

I guess my comment really boils down to "it's different when it's about ME ME ME".  ;) 

Will I make any changes?  Not really because I think my plan is still the best for me.    It does help to talk about things though with people who are not panicking 

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #35 on: February 27, 2020, 08:09:17 AM »

I just posted in another thread about reoccurrence of COVID-19 after being cured and likely community spread now occurring in the U.S.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2569312/#msg2569312

And regarding mortality rates:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

    39 or yonger, the death rate 0.2%.
    in their 40s, it is 0.4%
    in their 50s, it is 1.3%,
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

GoCubsGo

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #36 on: February 27, 2020, 08:26:35 AM »


Yes we *should*, but I'm an older person (50s) who WAS quite close to hitting my number. I've been listening to people for the past few years tell me that I'm investing for the next 30 years, not for the next 5.  That makes sense and I took on additional risk for that.  But it doesn't make me feel any better right NOW. 



@BlueHouse  I guess the one thing that might help you is that pulling the plug when the market is at a higher than historical average CAPE can be risky for sequence of returns risk.  Read BigErn's Early Retirement Now as he had a couple posts about it.  Still sucks if you were super close. 

I need to fund another six figures into a 529 and I will probably drop a bunch of it into equities if this keeps up.  So I have a little incentive to buy a fire sale.

HBFIRE

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #37 on: February 27, 2020, 09:11:16 AM »

I just posted in another thread about reoccurrence of COVID-19 after being cured and likely community spread now occurring in the U.S.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2569312/#msg2569312

And regarding mortality rates:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

    39 or yonger, the death rate 0.2%.
    in their 40s, it is 0.4%
    in their 50s, it is 1.3%,
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

I would take these rates with a grain of salt, scientists are saying it's way too soon to determine the actual fatality rates.  They need a lot more data and time for the rates to be statistically signifcant.  Total infections are likely already in the several hundreds of thousands.

Optimiser

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2020, 09:57:32 AM »
New York Times' The Daily, and Vox's Today Explained both have good episodes out right now about the coronavirus.

The short version is it's too soon to tell, but it could potentially be pretty bad...or not.

Psychstache

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2020, 10:49:37 AM »
New York Times' The Daily, and Vox's Today Explained both have good episodes out right now about the coronavirus.

The short version is it's too soon to tell, but it could potentially be pretty bad...or not.

Sounds like every episode of CNBC.

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #40 on: February 27, 2020, 10:55:17 AM »
At 65 I would prefer to live 20 more years but I am super happy that young people and kids arenít dying. I would die before seeing that happen.

you are just too sweet! yeah, i was really relieved to see that my 18-month-old son may have more resistance to COV than me. i am, however, pretty worried about out 60-something good friend who works with kids. she is already really prone to respiratory illnesses so I don't know that she would fare well if exposed to COV.

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #41 on: February 27, 2020, 03:52:23 PM »

I just posted in another thread about reoccurrence of COVID-19 after being cured and likely community spread now occurring in the U.S.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2569312/#msg2569312

And regarding mortality rates:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

    39 or yonger, the death rate 0.2%.
    in their 40s, it is 0.4%
    in their 50s, it is 1.3%,
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

Cool...ta for stats

bthewalls

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #42 on: February 27, 2020, 03:55:54 PM »
Ray Dalia said this would be a significant but short market drop....like sars

Keep the faith people, accept mortality of human life, prepare to scope the sale.



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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #43 on: February 27, 2020, 08:05:24 PM »
Massy,  seeing kids or young people die is heartbreaking.  I have lived a good life.  I love life and am taking precautions but the flu kills children and I am good friends with 2 people that lost kids and nothing is worse. Thatís probably the only good thing about this virus is that itís not killing children.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #44 on: February 27, 2020, 08:18:42 PM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #45 on: February 27, 2020, 08:32:18 PM »
China put out a research paper with figures I saw summarized in a BBC article, and match the website mentioned by wienerdog.  There's a 3:2 ratio of men to women dying from the virus, which means the 80 year old death rate probably looks like 18% (men) and 12% (women), rather than the overall 15%.  Age is a huge factor, but for people in their 30s it's 1 in 500 according to that data - rare, and similar to the normal flu.

Since this is the investment's forum, it's worth saying the risk to the markets is more severe.  I have no idea how many factories are idle, with all the workers at home.  Hubei is a hub for automobile manufacturing, meaning there are cars made elsewhere that can't be finished.  They need parts from a supply chain that's broken.  When the virus hits a new town, the place goes on lockdown, which stops a lot of economic activity.  During the SARS outbreak, the market impact was -8% I heard, and until this week the stock market impact was nothing like that.  Now Mon/Tuesday the market fell almost -8% in two days, so it's catching up... but the hit to economic output has to be larger.

There's also places that are ignorant or suppressing information.  8 deaths and only 43 cases?  Iran's data makes no sense.  Next day, the number of cases doubled... and the health minister who didn't believe in quarantine... has quarantined himself because he caught it.  Now that Iran is reporting 15 deaths, I hope they realize the problem is in the hundreds... South Korea has fewer deaths, but a thousand cases so far.  Denying there's a problem can spread it further... and the economic problem could grow.
I keep asking the same question when this is mentioned and no one ever seems to answer me, but shouldn't all of our investment strategies already be designed to withstand a major market upset? Isn't that the entire point?

If so, then why should any of us be concerned about the market affects of this, no matter how profound they are? Aren't we all supposed to be prepared for exactly this kind of thing?

Am I missing something?
Why do you assume my portfolio isn't "designed to withstand a major market upset"?  Isn't that a loaded question?

Your post has a complaint ("no one ever seems to answer me") and assumptions ("why should any of us be concerned") that don't seem related to what I posted.

Mr Mark

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #46 on: February 27, 2020, 09:06:21 PM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

I'd posit that, in terms of the big picture:
- it seems to spread like crazy. At least as contagious as ordinary flu. Maybe more so, as people appear to be contagious before early symptoms.
- it's already out of China, bigly. Europe, Aussie, Asia, Middle East and now US...
- it's definitely bad if you get it. Especially if you're old, or immune compromised, and it is killing more men than women.
 How bad? Seems to kill about 1% based on public data (so, ~10x ordinary flu rate in USA, but 'normal' flu mortality is higher in developing countries, so...) and maybe 2%  (but note lack of good early medical treatment may be behind early high mortality rates in China)
- on the plus side, kids don't seem as badly affected. On the bad side, reports you can get it twice FFS

So... actionable? Market/investment wise, just going to get some cash for short term panic contingency. (You should have had a normal flu vaccine too btw.) My 70/30 FIRE ship is always ready for stuff happening. Maybe a trip to Costco tomorrow for some staples. Ensure car is gassed up.

Wash my hands a lot. Avoid shaking hands. Basically 'really bad flu season' preparations.

If I was old, and already had issues with my health (esp lungs), a solid plan B for a run to a cabin in the woods would not be a stupid idea, as those numbers above could be right (or worse) and it'd be like playing Russian roulette.... But then how long do you wait to come outta da woods?

This thing could rip through retirement complexes and assisted care facilities, especially if it doesn't die down in the spring. Watch out for your parents and grandparents!

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #47 on: February 27, 2020, 09:32:52 PM »
...
    in their 60s, it is 3.6%
    in their 70s, it is 8%.
    80 and older, it is 14.8%.

    Men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
That 3:2 ratio of men to women means that for any age group, men have 1.5x the risk of dying from coronavirus.

  in their 60s, men 4.3% .. women 2.9%   (4.3/2 + 2.9/2 = 3.6)
  in their 70s, men 9.6% .. women 6.4%   (9.6/2 + 6.4/2 = 8)
  in their 80s, men 17.9% .. women 11.9% (17.9/2 + 11.9/2 = 14.8)

Here's a 2015 article that says 68% of Chinese men are smokers while only 3% of female Chinese are. I'm no scientist, but surely this is a contributing factor?
https://qz.com/521662/68-of-chinese-men-are-smokers-and-millions-will-die-because-of-it/

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #48 on: February 28, 2020, 12:33:21 AM »
Really interesting about who smokes in China - I wish reports broke out smokers vs non-smokers.  I've also read that some diseases have an influence, but no specific numbers.  Maybe over time..

In the spirit of the thread, it may help to remember other things kill far more people each year than COVID-19.  Don't worry so much about the virus that you stop paying attention while driving!  Even in the city of Wuhan, less than 1 in 100 people caught the virus... sure, tens of thousands - but still unlikely overall.

For those who agree with OP ("bring it on"), maybe it's worth buying equities at a discount?  According to morningstar, VTI fell -11.76% over this week (except Friday).  The market has estimated the future as accurately as possible, and decided on a -12% discount.  I don't know what happens next, the current environment seems to fit Warren Buffet's advice to be "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.Ē

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Re: Coronavirus ...bring it on mutha fucka
« Reply #49 on: February 28, 2020, 04:05:59 AM »

For those who agree with OP ("bring it on"), maybe it's worth buying equities at a discount?  According to morningstar, VTI fell -11.76% over this week (except Friday).  The market has estimated the future as accurately as possible, and decided on a -12% discount.  I don't know what happens next, the current environment seems to fit Warren Buffet's advice to be "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.Ē

Many/most in this community are already greatly invested in the stock market. Not much ability to be greedy at this point if you had already bought into the ďput it all in VTSAXĒ mantra.