Author Topic: Tesla bubble?  (Read 1311 times)

bthewalls

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Tesla bubble?
« on: February 19, 2020, 04:11:38 PM »
Is anyone else struggling to not sell Tesla? I.e. take the Money and run?

Baz

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2020, 08:03:21 PM »
I have a lot in Tesla and am struggling with when to sell more. I sold some at the first above 900 mark and then sold more when it dropped in the 700s worrying that it was diving deeper.

I still have a lot more and am not sure when to pull the trigger on offloading it

hodedofome

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2020, 09:29:33 PM »
You could always use a moving average (say 50 day, 100 day, or 200 day depending on how much room you wanted to give it) to keep you in the stock and make an unemotional decision to sell when it closes below the moving average.

You never know, it could go up to $1,500 or $2k. You gotta ask yourself if youíll feel worse for missing the move or for having lots of paper profits that you gave away whenever it falls 50% again.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2020, 09:33:51 PM »
Does Tesla really have an estimated P/E ratio of 280?  Forward P/E of 166 according to nasdaq:
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/price-earnings-peg-ratios

FrugalSaver

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2020, 11:33:39 PM »
I expect TSLA will be under $500 at some point in the next 12 months. Maybe under $400

Of course. I could be wrong.

It has been short massively squeezed to this point. Maybe it goes higher but the rug pull will be epic unless Musk comes out with cold fusion

hodedofome

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2020, 01:09:19 AM »
This article from a well respected analyst is a large reason for the recent explosion in February. It was already on a tear but this analysis paints a picture of why it should be worth well over $1,000 in the short term, and possibly much larger in the long term.

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-price-target

BobTheBuilder

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2020, 01:55:20 PM »
Wait for Q1/2020 shipping volume. It will be low due to COVID-19. China  car sales are down 95% in Jan. It migh be very low as there was a tax rebate hiccup in Germany in January and early February. There were end-of-year effects in the Netherlands... The list goes on.

While I think TESLA will be worth a fortune in a few years, I also think they are at manic levels right now. I could be wrong and they will never come down again. I hope TESLA succeeds. The old OEMs are full of ****.


PaulMaxime

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2020, 09:22:21 PM »
I've been long Tesla since 2012 and have no plans to sell any time soon. I've bought more shares several times along the way.

I don't care about the ups and downs and suggest that you don't either. Think like an owner and look to the future.

Nobody would have predicted the latest run up. If you are jumping in and out afraid of the expected volatility this is not the investment for you. Hold on for the long term. You'll likely miss the next bump up even if you manage to call the drop.

It could all fall apart but the upside potential is so huge. The best way to deal with the volatility is to have a diversified portfolio and not to look at the market each day.

bthewalls

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2020, 04:10:26 AM »
Thanks Paul

As you say there will be a short dip but the long term game looks good...had planned long and had a wobble lol

Baz

hodedofome

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2020, 02:11:16 PM »
I guess by that argument, Amazon and Netflix have had drops of over 80% on their way to being a few of the best stocks you could possibly own over the past 20 years.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2020, 04:27:06 PM »
I guess by that argument, Amazon and Netflix have had drops of over 80% on their way to being a few of the best stocks you could possibly own over the past 20 years.

Exactly. It can be hard to hang on to these companies. So diversify a bit and focus on the business and not the short term fluctuations of the stock. A stock may go to zero, sure, but a single multi-bagger like TSLA or NFLX or AMZN or AAPL would have more than made up for several of these losers.

We focus way too much on possible losses when a big gainer will wipe out so much of this easily. But you only get the huge wins over time by hanging on through thick and thin.

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/09/the-agony-of-high-returns.aspx

Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST) was the best-performing stock from 1995 to 2015. It increased 105,000%, turning $10,000 into more than $10 million.

But this isn't a retrospective about how you should wish you owned Monster stock. It's almost the opposite.

The truth is that Monster has been a gut-wrenching nightmare to own over the last 20 years. It traded below its previous all-time high on 94% of days during that period. On average, its stock was 26% below its high of the previous two years. It suffered four separate drops of 50% or more. It lost more than two-thirds of its value twice, and more than three-quarters once.

That's how the stock market works.

hodedofome

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bthewalls

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2020, 03:27:54 PM »
Amazing article...yeah thereís nothing indicating anything but long term buy and hold


hodedofome

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2020, 09:15:52 AM »
I sold TSLA in my trading account this morning. Still bullish long term but short term I think the price is going down. It did a classic island reversal over the past week.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/islandreversal.asp


bthewalls

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2020, 03:08:50 PM »
Yeah makes sense....Iím only into Tesla as a gamble that they may be big in 20 years and leave it to my kids lol

But yeah also makes sense to sell now at top and cream it!they buy back in few months at lower.

B

Blueberries

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Re: Tesla bubble?
« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2020, 03:39:06 PM »
I don't buy and hold for long-term (10+ years) unless it's my retirement account, so take what I say with a grain of salt.

It's almost always a bad idea to sell it all at one time.  It's had a nice run.  It could go higher, it could go lower.  It's usually best to sell to the "sleeping point" or a point at which you feel comfortable letting the rest run, assuming you have a sufficient profit.  It's also a good idea to have a line in the sand on where you'll exit, unless you intend to keep it no matter what.  It wouldn't be unusual (and is actually good) for the stock to take a ride to the 10 week/50 day ($580's) and see how it does there.  I would be surprised if it didn't get support (from institutions) within a 5% range.  However, it's also dependent on the overall market.