Author Topic: Conoco  (Read 4254 times)

mrpercentage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1236
  • Location: PHX, AZ
Conoco
« on: January 26, 2016, 01:29:20 AM »
Barclays says there is 50% chance they are cutting the dividend in the next two quarters. Are they going to cut that dividend? I am holding either way. Personally I would prefer they suspend a few payments if they have to. They could suspend payments but issue special dividends of whatever they can do with leftover cash. Im probably living in a pipe dream but I think its the better way.

Thoughts anyone? Lets throw mud

Suspend after the next payment with a classy warning that you are going to do so. There is honor in that. I would still buy because its a quality company and I would know they are not going blow smoke and sunshine at me. Tell it like it is. You reward shareholders as the commodity market allows. No one could blame you. You intend to pay $0.74 but you will pay what you can without selling assets. Thats what I want to hear. Anyone else with a stake in it? Dividend now or long term health of the company-- what say you

use2betrix

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1446
Re: Conoco
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2016, 07:19:29 PM »
Their stock has crashed so bad it's a terrible time to sell regardless. I know several people who worked for conoco most their lives in upp management positions that do not suggest purchasing their stock lol.

mrpercentage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1236
  • Location: PHX, AZ
Re: Conoco
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2016, 08:18:35 PM »
I won't sell. I have a handful of direct stock purchases that I will never sell. Conoco and Exxon are two of them. I have a utility and a REIT and Kinder Morgan. I will not talk about the others. They have done well and I will not jinx it. Every time I mention one of my holding doing well its drops 10-15% so I don't do it anymore and its been working well for me.

whodidntante

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 80
Re: Conoco
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2016, 10:17:05 PM »
My guess is a lot of these oil stock dividends are going to get whacked if prices stay this low.  The once mighty Transocean went from a huge payout to nothing, though they are getting hammered much harder than Conoco by these oil prices.  Their share price has been a blood bath.  There are several companies who are borrowing to support their dividend habit.  ExxonMobil is conservatively managed and looks rock solid but then you pay for it in the share price. 


mrpercentage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1236
  • Location: PHX, AZ
Re: Conoco
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2016, 12:26:53 AM »
I thought oil might come back sooner like many others so it wasn't a pure dividend play but that was a big part. ConocoPhillips will do some damage to my yield for sure if they cut. Not a surprise with them yielding 8%.  Exxon is possibly the best dividend aristocrat and it yields higher than JNJ, PG, and MMM by a good 1/2 a percent. Still a good buy in my book.

My direct purchase stocks together have over a 5% yield. If Conoco cuts I will be around 3%. I have had to deversify my yield some just in case it does hit me. I think there is a good chance but it wouldn't be called buy and hold if I sell. I will trust them to work it out and pay big when they can

I deversify by buying more of other things. I hold what I have
« Last Edit: January 27, 2016, 12:32:35 AM by mrpercentage »

protostache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 878
Re: Conoco
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2016, 05:51:18 AM »
I don't know about Conoco, but I have holdings in ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell that have all done alright. I'm confident that at least the first two will be able to maintain a dividend through the cycle, but the big move Shell is making today (buying BG) makes me a little nervous. They're taking on an awful lot of debt to make it happen which does not do good things for their already less than stellar balance sheet. I think in the long run it will ultimately prove to be a good move.

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 27297
  • Age: -999
  • Location: Traveling the World
Re: Conoco
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2016, 06:28:36 AM »
Every time I mention one of my holding doing well its drops 10-15% so I don't do it anymore and its been working well for me.

Shhh.. don't give away the universe's secret code, or soon everyone will stop mentioning their holdings and stocks won't drop to where we can buy them at good discounts!
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with two kids.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

EarlyStart

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 115
Re: Conoco
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2016, 09:04:01 PM »
 Over the last four quarters free cash flow was  $-5,061,000,000 , and operating cash flow was $28,623,000,000 .
 Dividends paid to common shares over the same period were  $3,614,037,800. Dividends paid as a percentage of  free cash flow and operating cash flow were  -71.41 %  and  12.63 % , respectively.


They probably should cut their dividend since they're not producing the free cash to pay it. This is based on the last 4 quarters, but if anything that makes it too generous since crude prices were much higher during much of 2015.

protostache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 878
Re: Conoco
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2016, 05:34:55 AM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/conocophillips-reports-fourth-quarter-full-120000361.html

Results are in. Dividend is now $0.25. I'm a little surprised they didn't cut further. Cutting it entirely would probably have been a bad move because of the mutual fund churn that would have happened.

mrpercentage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1236
  • Location: PHX, AZ
Re: Conoco
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2016, 07:33:20 AM »
Honestly, I would rather they suspend it completely a few payments but-- it is what it is. Im in it for the long haul and my direct stock portfolio now yields 3.25%. I knew the oil sector is a nuclear blast zone going in. My conviction of the long term return for both equity and dividends hasn't changed. They did what they had to. They will pay me well in time. I know they are good for it, or I think they do ;)

I could be a fool.

mrpercentage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1236
  • Location: PHX, AZ
Re: Conoco
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2016, 07:36:09 AM »
my Conoco yield on cost is now 2.15% for the curious

protostache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 878
Re: Conoco
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2016, 07:52:36 AM »
Honestly, I would rather they suspend it completely a few payments but-- it is what it is. Im in it for the long haul and my direct stock portfolio now yields 3.25%. I knew the oil sector is a nuclear blast zone going in. My conviction of the long term return for both equity and dividends hasn't changed. They did what they had to. They will pay me well in time. I know they are good for it, or I think they do ;)

I could be a fool.

Hard to say :)

I've personally tried my best to educate myself about the oil industry, and even with all that research I've decided to stick with the largest IOCs instead of trying to get into the up/mid/downstream muck. My yield on cost at the moment is XOM: 3.7%, CVX: 4.9%, and RDS.B: 9%. I wish I could have bought more RDS.B when it was at $37, but I'm sure at some point in the future I'll have cash at the same time it's >90% off the 52 week high like it was a month ago.

Philbert

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 47
Re: Conoco
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2016, 08:44:22 AM »
I owe Conoco stock, and I'm sticking with them. Yes, I'm bummed about the dividend cut, but it's the right thing to do for now. This prolonged oil glut is an extraordinary situation. I own less than 50 shares of Conoco, so it won't affect my portfolio like it will for the OP. (Hang in there, OP!)

I believe in buy and hold. Things are rough now, but who knows what will happen in a year or five years. As long as I'm not forced to sell, I'm going to hold on. Worst case scenario, the stock goes to zero and I lose my original investment. (I doubt it will go to $0) But the upside has nearly unlimited potential. And on the brightside: they've only reduced their dividend. They didn't cut it completely.

The people cashing out now at the bottom of the market are repeating history rather than learning from it.

mrpercentage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1236
  • Location: PHX, AZ
Re: Conoco
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2016, 08:48:09 AM »
Honestly, I would rather they suspend it completely a few payments but-- it is what it is. Im in it for the long haul and my direct stock portfolio now yields 3.25%. I knew the oil sector is a nuclear blast zone going in. My conviction of the long term return for both equity and dividends hasn't changed. They did what they had to. They will pay me well in time. I know they are good for it, or I think they do ;)

I could be a fool.

Hard to say :)

I've personally tried my best to educate myself about the oil industry, and even with all that research I've decided to stick with the largest IOCs instead of trying to get into the up/mid/downstream muck. My yield on cost at the moment is XOM: 3.7%, CVX: 4.9%, and RDS.B: 9%. I wish I could have bought more RDS.B when it was at $37, but I'm sure at some point in the future I'll have cash at the same time it's >90% off the 52 week high like it was a month ago.
XOM 3.81% KMI 3.22% COP 2.15%

I don't want to mention my others. Im serious about the jinx. If I say hey look at this, I feed my prize to a lumberjack and he is going to chop it down. Doesn't have to make sense. It is my perception and that is reality. Can't talk about my winners right now. God is clear on that. Big yield and equity is awesome-sauce-spectacular

mrpercentage

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1236
  • Location: PHX, AZ
Re: Conoco
« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2016, 08:49:28 AM »

The people cashing out now at the bottom of the market are repeating history rather than learning from it.
agreed

doggyfizzle

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 327
Re: Conoco
« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2016, 12:15:03 PM »
Or people are acknowledging the strong likelihood of an E&P business that is going to struggle for several years without an associated refining arm and cutting losses.  As someone who works in O&G and has been exposed (through work) to most major global oil and gas companies, it is shocking how few are really run with true capital discipline.  The few that are (XOM, IMO, CVE, EOG) are worthy of a long-term investment, the rest (RDS, BP, COP, etc) are not.