Author Topic: Climate-proofing your portfolio  (Read 5327 times)

steveo

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2018, 04:00:14 AM »
So, you accept the science, but you don't accept the science?  Cherry picking the parts you can agree with and rejecting the parts you don't?

CO2 causing warming is incontrovertible.  Man-made emissions increasing the CO2 concentration is incontrovertible.  That this has a warming effect is incontrovertible.

Whether this effect is overall good or bad is not proven.  Whether or not we can do diddly-squat is not proven.  Whether or not we should spent money on prevention or adaptation is a valid debate.

What amazes me about this is that Arrhenius first calculated that burning fossil fuels at the rates mankind were would cause global warming back in 1896.

This is all true.  But the CO2 component by itself is not nearly enough to cause the "catastrophic" warming that drives the climate change religion (and I use that word deliberately).   They can make the models dramatic only by including water vapour and radiative forcing and upper-atmospheric hot spots which are not proven or even observed. 

And no, I'm not a member or fan of Big Coal or Big Oil or countless other labels used to shut people down.  And I'm an engineer which gives me some nominal technical credentials.  Being an engineer, I look for pragmatism and I don't see any pragmatism in countless people running around saying "the science is settled" and spending billions of dollars on useless and inefficient programmes and research when the world has much bigger problems about which we can do something.

I honestly think that this is a pretty accurate picture of the situation.

I also think that the whole humans versus the environment question/issue is a really important one. There was a link within this thread in relation to animals dying out. I assume that this is true and to me it's just as important or more important issue than climate change.

I see two big issues:-

1. We are impacting the planet in significant ways and maybe (I don't see how I'm the judge of what is right to do so I state maybe) we should be doing a lot more to protect the environment.
2. Having an impact in relation to our impact on the Earth would require some pretty massive changes in us. I see a lot of people stating we have to do something and driving two cars and eating meat every day. How about making a law that everyone has to bike or catch public transport, there is a one child policy per family, we will no longer eat animals or animal derived products, there will be only one overseas trip per person per life and probably a whole bunch of other measures to curtail humans impact on the environment.

When it comes to your portfolio there is no way to climate-proof it. You just invest in the Index and the companies that survive will survive.

smalllife

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2018, 07:42:53 AM »
I think it's nearly impossible to predict exactly how (much less how *and* when) climate change will affect the markets, so I'm investing just as I would if I didn't believe climate change were real. 

One thing I have done, which hasn't been mentioned, is not have kids.  Certainly my husband and I didn't make that choice based solely on climate change concerns.  But it does mean that we didn't contribute to additional overpopulation (though I know my failure to add 1-4 more people to the planet is but a drop in the ocean) and it also means I have fewer people to care for and worry about in the medium and longer term.  Of course, that means fewer people to pool resources, but I'm guessing the net will come out in my favor.  And it also means it will probably be somewhat less painful for me to watch civilization burn, if it comes to that.

Gonna boost this one.  Don't have kids, or if you do don't have any more.  It's quite literally the single greatest act you can take to stabilize the environment.

Also +1 to you can't predict when and how, so just invest in the total market, avoid real estate or infrastructure dependent property (southwest desert US for example), and keep your lifestyle lean. 

magnet18

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #52 on: October 29, 2018, 01:01:38 PM »
My climate proof FIRE plan is, once FIRE
buy land somewhere cheap that will be habitable
Bury a small bunker
Stockpile ammo and seeds

Should easily be a small percentage of my portfolio, and if I need it, it will probably become 100% of my portfolio


An irrelevant aside, a lot of people forget that if you're willing to farm, carry water in buckets, and poop in (different) buckets, anybody on this forum CAN lower their living expenses to $0/year, and by definition jump to FI immediately

DS

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #53 on: October 29, 2018, 01:02:41 PM »
An irrelevant aside, a lot of people forget that if you're willing to farm, carry water in buckets, and poop in (different) buckets, anybody on this forum CAN lower their living expenses to $0/year, and by definition jump to FI immediately

Shockingly simple math behind early retirement!

PDXTabs

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #54 on: October 29, 2018, 01:57:49 PM »
An irrelevant aside, a lot of people forget that if you're willing to farm, carry water in buckets, and poop in (different) buckets, anybody on this forum CAN lower their living expenses to $0/year, and by definition jump to FI immediately

Not everyone has the money for the land, or the able body for the farming. Some of us need medications to control chronic illness. Some of us even have court ordered child support, alimony, or other debts that are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. But yea, I could FIRE tomorrow if I just jumped off a building...
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 01:59:27 PM by PDXTabs »

wenchsenior

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #55 on: October 29, 2018, 02:19:06 PM »
An irrelevant aside, a lot of people forget that if you're willing to farm, carry water in buckets, and poop in (different) buckets, anybody on this forum CAN lower their living expenses to $0/year, and by definition jump to FI immediately

Not everyone has the money for the land, or the able body for the farming. Some of us need medications to control chronic illness. Some of us even have court ordered child support, alimony, or other debts that are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. But yea, I could FIRE tomorrow if I just jumped off a building...

Not to mention, many areas of the country are not very suitable for farming, b/c of climate or soil.

magnet18

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #56 on: October 29, 2018, 02:20:06 PM »
An irrelevant aside, a lot of people forget that if you're willing to farm, carry water in buckets, and poop in (different) buckets, *almost* anybody on this forum CAN lower their living expenses to $0/year, and by definition jump to FI immediately

Not everyone has the money for the land, or the able body for the farming. Some of us need medications to control chronic illness. Some of us even have court ordered child support, alimony, or other debts that are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. But yea, I could FIRE tomorrow if I just jumped off a building...

There, I fixed it

Also, I'd say if FI is the goal, life imprisonment is a better alternative to skydiving without a paracute

Also, how about a little optimism.  I think child support is a function of income, so if income drops to zero, that takes care of at least one of your problems :)

magnet18

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #57 on: October 29, 2018, 02:23:36 PM »
An irrelevant aside, a lot of people forget that if you're willing to farm, carry water in buckets, and poop in (different) buckets, anybody on this forum CAN lower their living expenses to $0/year, and by definition jump to FI immediately

Not everyone has the money for the land, or the able body for the farming. Some of us need medications to control chronic illness. Some of us even have court ordered child support, alimony, or other debts that are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. But yea, I could FIRE tomorrow if I just jumped off a building...

Not to mention, many areas of the country are not very suitable for farming, b/c of climate or soil.

Then if subsistence farming was your goal, I'd recommend either

1. Alter the local climate/soil
2. Don't live those places

PDXTabs

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #58 on: October 29, 2018, 02:42:06 PM »
I think child support is a function of income, so if income drops to zero, that takes care of at least one of your problems :)

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=imputed+income+child+support

ETA: Not to mention that I like it when my kids live indoors, eat food, and get to see the doctor when they are sick (two of them have required surgery so far).
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 02:44:05 PM by PDXTabs »

DS

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #59 on: October 29, 2018, 02:45:56 PM »
To be fair, they did say "CAN" not "should"

Also not a super in-depth analysis so not much to take seriously / pick apart.

magnet18

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #60 on: October 29, 2018, 02:52:58 PM »
I think child support is a function of income, so if income drops to zero, that takes care of at least one of your problems :)

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=imputed+income+child+support

ETA: Not to mention that I like it when my kids live indoors, eat food, and get to see the doctor when they are sick (two of them have required surgery so far).


There has clearly been sarcasm laced into these posts, as I'm not seriously fireing into a bomb shelter, and I'm not seriously suggesting you or anybody build a  shack in the backwoods and pretend the year is 1605

Lighten up

PDXTabs

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #61 on: October 29, 2018, 02:58:55 PM »
There has clearly been sarcasm laced into these posts, as I'm not seriously fireing into a bomb shelter, and I'm not seriously suggesting you or anybody build a  shack in the backwoods and pretend the year is 1605

I'm sorry, what forum is this? Some of us are actually concerned about investing for climate change.

maizeman

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #62 on: October 29, 2018, 04:50:37 PM »
Also, how about a little optimism.  I think child support is a function of income, so if income drops to zero, that takes care of at least one of your problems :)

In most states child support is a function of _possible_ income. So if you’ve established you can earn $50k/year your child support obligations don’t drop if you choose to take a lower paying job, get laid off, or decide to go off the grid and not earn anything at all.

However I do think it would be fair to say we’re discussing a special case of the general principle: “FIRE is faster and easier for those who chose not to have children than those who chose to have children.”

magnet18

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #63 on: October 30, 2018, 07:35:42 AM »
Alright, here is my sarcasm/satire/snark free version of how to prepare your moneybags for a global event in which billions of people die and entire biomes change significantly

Assuming currency still has worth and that vanguard and Fidelity still even exist, your investments should be in total world index funds, rather than american index funds.  You either believe in the basic concept of indexing, or you don't, so I won't be trying to pick stocks during the apocalypse.  Doesn't matter what you're invested in, I'm not expecting to follow the 4% rule



If things are that bleak, I'm definitely not assuming either that currency has value, or that I can access it, so I'll plan accordingly

GuitarStv

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #64 on: October 30, 2018, 08:30:00 AM »
"The world is warming, whether we like or it or not, whether we're causing it or not".  Perhaps you should try reading my words instead of just assuming I'm a knuckle-dragging, climate-denialist.

CO2 causing warming is incontrovertible.  Man-made emissions increasing the CO2 concentration is incontrovertible.  That this has a warming effect is incontrovertible.

Your words sometimes appear to be contradictory.  In the first statement for example, you appear to indicate doubt that humans are causing climate change.  In the second you're saying that there's no doubt that that humans are causing climate change.


The effects on the world due to climate change are and will be nothing compared to the world's population growth.  Everything else pales into comparison.

You're quite correct that I am slandering the work of thousands of experts.  You have weak-minded governments and bureaucrats funding climate change studies, they produce the results that they get paid to produce and so get more funding.

You've also made several claims that aren't backed by data, which contradict well-researched climate models.  I'm fine with you bringing forth a dissenting opinion, but expecting people to believe it merely by the weight of your personal word is where your argument falls apart.  Show me the overwhelming research evidence that has convinced you of what you're saying.



You're quite correct that I am slandering the work of thousands of experts.  You have weak-minded governments and bureaucrats funding climate change studies, they produce the results that they get paid to produce and so get more funding.

This is one of the worldviews I really struggle to understand. Generally it is easier to publish papers (and publish them in higher impact journals) if you get unexpected results than expected results. It's easier to get grants if you publish more papers, and publish those papers in higher impact journals.

There are a lot of perverse incentives in the way science if funded, but the idea that just reporting confirmatory results over and over ahead is the way to get more funding isn't one of them.

And even if we put all that aside, the fact that there are dozens of national governments funding scientific research and large numbers of foundations and industry grants, so all these funders would have to be on the same page (which they aren't).

And even if you put that issue aside too, you're still left with (which you look at the entire world) a significant number of cantankerous tenured professors with endowed chairs who can do or say whatever they want, have a guaranteed job for life, and still have enough funding from their own endowments to do whatever research they want.

This misunderstanding of what science is, how it's funded, and how it's performed is (unfortunately) a common problem among people who believe in pseudoscience, conspiracy theories, and fringe science.  I'd go as far as to say that it's essential to belief in these things.  While they're very quick to denounce real science as a belief system and religion, they're often completely blind to the system of pure faith that they follow themselves.  Because of this, I suspect that the meat of your argument will be ignored in this discussion.

gaja

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #65 on: October 30, 2018, 02:22:19 PM »
To get back on topic:

I was at a seminar about green economy last week, where several speakers touched upon climate risk. Most of it was in Norwegian, but I found the English equivalents of a couple of the slides. Also, this overview looks quite useful: https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/climateriskreport

If you understand Norwegian or Swedish, the presentations from the seminar are here: https://klimaostfold.no/nyheter/kommune-norge-oppfylle-ambisiose-klimamal-2/

mjr

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #66 on: October 30, 2018, 11:19:11 PM »
"The world is warming, whether we like or it or not, whether we're causing it or not".  Perhaps you should try reading my words instead of just assuming I'm a knuckle-dragging, climate-denialist.

CO2 causing warming is incontrovertible.  Man-made emissions increasing the CO2 concentration is incontrovertible.  That this has a warming effect is incontrovertible.

Your words sometimes appear to be contradictory.  In the first statement for example, you appear to indicate doubt that humans are causing climate change.  In the second you're saying that there's no doubt that that humans are causing climate change.

I do not think I'm being contradictory.  That's the trouble with this religion/discussion, too many people consider the issue binary and clear-cut.  It most certainly isn't.

I freely acknowledge the science of greenhouse gasses (a) because it's true, (b) because if I don't I get called a believer in fake science by people looking to shut the debate down.
So, yes humans contribute to CO2 concentrations and ergo to warming.  So if you're one of those people who say "warming is bad because the science says so", you can stop reading now.

After that factual statement is when it gets messy.  Will the warming be good or bad (or both!) ?  Of course there can be good, warding off ice ages and more relevantly increasing the greening of the earth.  More people die of cold then heat, you know.  I see people posting in this thread about staying away from the coast.  News flash folks, the sea levels have been rising since the last ice age ended, it's not something new brought on by man-made global warming.

Most importantly, if we need to, what can be done in a cost-effective manner ??   There's bugger-all point in spending billions of dollars on programmes that have no measurable or positive economic effect.   Well-meaning but delusional hypocrites supporting programmes for "green power" while continuing to consume unabated are just fools.  China and India are absolute behemoths and they're going to consume whatever they get their hands on.

Lastly, check out this little gem from the IPCC's AR5:

"For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers (medium evidence,
high agreement). Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of
socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact
of climate change"

BSL18

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2018, 06:51:43 AM »
  More people die of cold then heat, you know. 

I'm actually very curious how that is possible. Do you have any source for that claim? Although to be honest, if that is untrue, it will have to be weighted with the fact that most countries with a cold climate are developed or close-to-be, whereas countries with  starvation (caused in part by drought) problems tend to be closer to the Equator. Cause or consequence, I don't know, it's amazing how creative you get once your toes start to freeze!

I don't think you can call global warming good or bad. As far as I'm concerned, global warming won't bring any asteroid upon us, meaning that at least a part of the human race will survive unscathed, and some of us probably even better off than now. Every species will adapt or die, but in the end, it won't be good or bad... But it will definitely be very different.

Part of the religion around global warming is actually more about how we impact others. Others being the next generations, that might have a harder time than we do with food prices going up again (compared to median wages), more natural disasters, and a bunch of other consequences that very few can foresee. And others also being the other species that will most likely (I think WWF stated the we "lost" 60% of wild mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians in 44 years: https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-2018) have a much tougher time adapting to the new conditions we are contributing to create.

To me, in the end, nearly everyone agrees that humans contribute to global warming to a certain degree. The rest is a matter of belief, as in all other matters of life (political, ethical, etc... financial, why we're here!), and some people will always put their short term gains ahead of any shared conservation of life standard, and some people will always (backed or not by their acts) believe that as a specie we should be aiming for what is best for the Earth as a global system.


GuitarStv

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #68 on: October 31, 2018, 08:04:43 AM »
I freely acknowledge the science of greenhouse gasses (a) because it's true, (b) because if I don't I get called a believer in fake science by people looking to shut the debate down.

You're acting like (b) isn't directly related to (a).  Objective reality exists.  When you deny reality because of a belief in fake science, then you should be shouted down.



So, yes humans contribute to CO2 concentrations and ergo to warming.  So if you're one of those people who say "warming is bad because the science says so", you can stop reading now.

After that factual statement is when it gets messy.  Will the warming be good or bad (or both!) ?  Of course there can be good, warding off ice ages and more relevantly increasing the greening of the earth.  More people die of cold then heat, you know.  I see people posting in this thread about staying away from the coast.  News flash folks, the sea levels have been rising since the last ice age ended, it's not something new brought on by man-made global warming.

Science is the best system we've yet devised to measure reality and make objective predictions.  You seem pretty convinced that climate change isn't going to be much of a problem.  Can you share the evidence you used to come to that conclusion?  So far, all that you've put forward is your own personal opinion.



Most importantly, if we need to, what can be done in a cost-effective manner ??   There's bugger-all point in spending billions of dollars on programmes that have no measurable or positive economic effect.   Well-meaning but delusional hypocrites supporting programmes for "green power" while continuing to consume unabated are just fools.  China and India are absolute behemoths and they're going to consume whatever they get their hands on.

Agreed.  That's why I tend to support programs that generate revenue rather than spend it.  We need to start charging people for the environmental damages that they do so they can make informed decisions with their checkbooks.  Then we need to reinvest that money.  To take a single example:
If we fail to tax gasoline to cover the environmental damage of driving, then people will drive more, and be much less receptive to alternate means of transportation.  If we tax gas in order to build better public transit and encourage denser city design then we're improving the problem without actually costing people more.



Lastly, check out this little gem from the IPCC's AR5:

"For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers (medium evidence,
high agreement). Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact of climate change"

I'm not sure what this couple of sentences given without context is supposed to demonstrate.  Is this statement discussing the likely long term impact of 3+ degrees of change, or the virtually guaranteed shorter term <2 degrees of change?  Why are we ignoring the health, environmental, and weather related impacts of climate change to focus solely on an economic sector average?  Can you further elaborate upon the point you're trying to make here?

bacchi

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2018, 09:01:40 AM »
I see people posting in this thread about staying away from the coast.  News flash folks, the sea levels have been rising since the last ice age ended, it's not something new brought on by man-made global warming.

I thought you were all into the science?

News flash folks: Sea level rise is accelerating.

Using sediment levels, and now satellites, they can detect sea level.

PDXTabs

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Re: Climate-proofing your portfolio
« Reply #70 on: October 31, 2018, 09:48:36 AM »
The world is warming, whether we like or it or not, whether we're causing it or not.  It will not be the calamity that the climate change religion wants it be.  It attracts dramatists, virtue-signallers and rent-seekers.



Either way, this thread is about protecting our portfolios, if we could figure out how.