Author Topic: Clean Tech ETFs  (Read 2933 times)

lemonlyman

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Clean Tech ETFs
« on: September 30, 2016, 04:58:25 AM »
Does anyone here invest in clean tech? I watched Tony Seba's talk a year or so ago, but I watched this more recent yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

He posits that all new cars produced globally will be electric after 2025 and solar will be able to provide 100% of Earth's electricity needs by 2030. He basically uses historical cost curves of batteries, solar panels, etc. to forecast how the combustion engine and electricity generation/transmission just won't be able to compete with the cost decline of technology both of which solar panels and electric cars and power storage are a part of. 

Look at past performance, clean tech ETFs have been a pretty bad investment, but if it's true that technology advancement will rapidly disrupt these industries, it would be a really good gain over the next 10 years. Anyone taking that risk?

Mother Fussbudget

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2016, 04:31:29 PM »
I am not taking that risk today.  In the US, we live in a regulatory environment where the big-oil/big-coal/big-energy producers are spending lavishly on elections with a goal of doing away with some of the regulations that help make these start-up clean energy companies viable.  In my opinion, investing in clean tech *today* amounts to philanthropy.  For better or worse, the outcome of the US presidential election will heavily influence the outlook for clean tech.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2016, 07:50:26 AM »
For some reason this reminds me of "Who Killed the Electric Car"...

nobodyspecial

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2016, 09:06:44 PM »
Still doesn't mean it will make money.
They prophesied that we would have jet airliners - but it didn't mean that investing in them would be profitable

Seppia

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Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2016, 03:50:55 AM »
Still doesn't mean it will make money.
They prophesied that we would have jet airliners - but it didn't mean that investing in them would be profitable


This.
Plus, 100% of the world's electricity provided by solar by 2030 seems like a massive pile of horse manure.
If this gentlemen is so sure, I will bet him all my life savings that it will not be the case.
2030 is tomorrow

lemonlyman

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2016, 05:49:31 AM »
I'm less skeptical of the idea than any of you. Cost decline of these technologies and adoption rates are exponential when put on graphs. There are subsidies, but they don't matter in the long run with cost decline. I live in WV. Our legislature just removed excise tax from coal companies. Lowering taxes plus federal subsidies isn't going to save coal in our state. Two 200 mile electric vehicles at the median car price in the US are coming out next year with huge preorders. Lithium ion battery cost will decline 50% in the next 5 years just due to higher production capacity world wide not just lowering the cost of EVs but home power storage. The market trend is there, and the various tech advancements support the others.

Not putting all my eggs in the basket. Just part of the portfolio 10+ years.

nobodyspecial

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2016, 06:46:48 AM »
But even if the technology does work it might not make money.
There might be too many competing companies, projects with capital costs that are so large they never pay back, an environment where the price of the hardware is dropping so fast that halfway through a project it becomes cheaper to scrap it and start again with newer cheaper parts. And on top of all of it constantly changing government regulation and incentives and competition blocking.

Just like airlines really.

lemonlyman

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2016, 07:37:50 AM »
But even if the technology does work it might not make money.
There might be too many competing companies, projects with capital costs that are so large they never pay back, an environment where the price of the hardware is dropping so fast that halfway through a project it becomes cheaper to scrap it and start again with newer cheaper parts. And on top of all of it constantly changing government regulation and incentives and competition blocking.

Just like airlines really.

The tech works. It's in the market now and improving every year. You can view the profits of the ETF holdings of whichever EFTs you're interested in. It's about the acceleration of the consumer adoption rate and how much cheaper these products become at larger scales and with added improvements in design and function. These affect consumer automotive, energy, and transportation service industries. Airlines are very different. I mean planes are a technology, but I don't know many people who own planes. I know many people who own cars, purchase electricity, and use Uber. Everyone wants better products and services at cheaper prices. It's much more similar to computers and cell phones or as he says in the talk the transition from horses to automobiles within 13 years. The presentation explains much better than I ever could.

Buckthundaz

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2016, 08:26:36 PM »
To me, both points here offer good sense. 

Although energy (very necessary in everyday life to all) to planes (a privilege that is extended to many but used frequently by few)

I myself am a big believer in the long term [30+ yr] stability of renewable energy and cite these two posts to aid my view:
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/the-deal-with-solar.html
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-life.html

The point about making it lucrative is interesting though.  Perhaps the saying 'In a gold rush, sell shovels' may apply? Though shovels get cheaper over time.

I believe in TSLA as a stable and strong company in this field, though the stock may be a little overblown as of late -- if it goes 'on sale' I'd love to dive in.

Do you have any particular ETFs you're looking at? Are they heavy toward a particular renewable? I foresee solar leading, with wind behind and then geothermal leaping both eventually.


Any opinions on Trump in regards to this or do you feel that isn't important?

CowboyAndIndian

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2016, 09:50:33 PM »
Does anyone here invest in clean tech? I watched Tony Seba's talk a year or so ago, but I watched this more recent yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

He posits that all new cars produced globally will be electric after 2025 and solar will be able to provide 100% of Earth's electricity needs by 2030. He basically uses historical cost curves of batteries, solar panels, etc. to forecast how the combustion engine and electricity generation/transmission just won't be able to compete with the cost decline of technology both of which solar panels and electric cars and power storage are a part of. 

Look at past performance, clean tech ETFs have been a pretty bad investment, but if it's true that technology advancement will rapidly disrupt these industries, it would be a really good gain over the next 10 years. Anyone taking that risk?

Brilliant. Thank you for posting this.

If we go thru the list of disruptions and how fast they happened, I definitely believe what he says.

So, as investors, I guess we know who the losers are: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Petroleum Companies, Utilities, Car companies.At least we  know what to not invest in.

The un-answered question is who the winners are???

« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 09:52:24 PM by CowboyAndIndian »

lemonlyman

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2017, 02:03:08 PM »
I missed these replies. I invest in GEX, LIT, PZD and a small amount in TAN. LIT is up about 60% for the year so far which as been amazing for my portfolio. GEZ, PZD and TAN are about the same as the market right now for the year. I did lose value with TAN last year because of new panel tarrifs. I think it'll pick up again in a few years, but I'm more exposed to Lithium for energy storage and electric cars at the moment.

Having said that, the majority of my money is still in the major market, but major growth in the 2020s for these funds is getting more possible by the day. This happened a couple of days ago.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/gm-going-all-electric-will-ditch-gas-diesel-powered-cars-n806806

ixtap

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Re: Clean Tech ETFs
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2017, 02:16:06 PM »
I have some old "diversify means buy more and more different stuff" funds that I have left in motif, which was my first taxable investing foray after building a good EF and paying off the car loan.

Some of it is in this:
https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/cleantech-everywhere

Hard to feel bad. However, I only added to the account this year because they changed their pricing structure and I needed a minimum to avoid a new fee.