For a really good breakdown on the other side of the spectrum, and why cape doesn't matter... :)https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/645-cape-fear-why-cape-naysayers-are-wrong.htmlJust wanted to share, as we do not know and both sides have some good points.
Quote from: khizr on January 06, 2018, 03:19:03 PMFor a really good breakdown on the other side of the spectrum, and why cape doesn't matter... :)https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/645-cape-fear-why-cape-naysayers-are-wrong.htmlJust wanted to share, as we do not know and both sides have some good points.Maybe I'm missing something, but you posted the exact same article he did. Same title, same authors, just a different website. CAPE isn't the only metric saying that stocks are overvalued in comparison to most of history. My FIRE calculations assume we will see lower than average returns the next 5-10 years. Hopefully it turns out better, and then I could FIRE even sooner.
Here’s the latest from Jeremy Grantham:Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up (A Very Personal View)https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/viewpoints---bracing-yourself-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up.pdf?sfvrsn=2
Big list of resources:http://mebfaber.com/2014/08/22/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-cape-ratio/
Ah . . . fear and greed, greed and fear . . . no matter what position you want to take on the market, someone will back you up!
Quote from: Zamboni on January 07, 2018, 12:31:44 PMAh . . . fear and greed, greed and fear . . . no matter what position you want to take on the market, someone will back you up!Be fearful when others are greedy?
Quote from: AdrianC on January 07, 2018, 12:29:28 PMHere’s the latest from Jeremy Grantham:Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up (A Very Personal View)https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/viewpoints---bracing-yourself-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up.pdf?sfvrsn=2wow great read, thank you for sharing that!