Author Topic: Can somebody explain the benefits of holding crypto to me like I'm five.  (Read 11761 times)

Edubb20

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 69


If I hold a diversified portfolio of US and International stocks  (picture about a 65/35 blend of VTSAX and VTIAX), and bitcoin becomes regularly utilized monetary tender and blockchain, behind it, continues to grow and remains an important tool in digital exchange, isn't it assumed that a good portion of the companies in the above funds will either utilize or benefit from its expanded adoption. Also, theoretically, If companies in crypto adjacent spaces(exchanges/brokers) gain and sustain market cap, won't they likely just be absorbed by the above funds at some point?

I guess, I'm having a really hard time understand how it's adoption has any correlation with the total stock market  other than being more and more absorbed into it, which as a holder of said indexes, changes nothing for me. If it's a replacement for gold, that also shouldn't impact me because I don't hold gold  and doubt I'd change my strategy for it's alternative.

I am NOT a naysayer just for the sake of it, nor is this an attempt to troll anyone invested financially and emotionally in the Crypto space, I'm mostly just a passive investor who truly doesn't understand and stays away from the unknown.  I've googled the hell out of this and i'm still struggling to see how buying into Crypto is betting on some form of disruption and not the same as betting on any other individual item whether it be gold or beanie babies or Microsoft shares.

I am not a savvy investor, explain it to me like I'm not a savvy investor.

also, Scold me about the search function if you must, but most of the topics about this subject in this forum are messy and hard to dig through for a simple explanation. Send a link if you have one.


joe189man

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 914
i think, in my uneducated opinion, that its just another thing to diversify into. Blockchain technology could be a transformative technology creating smart contracts. Crypto is an application of blockchain. I could be way wrong but it feels like crypto is like beanie babies or baseball cards, or something like holding gold. Except you can buy a coffee with it or purchase illegal weapons, where you cant buy groceries with baseball cards.

Maybe its like highly volatile Forex trading? another issue is each crypto currency is different, where with bitcoin there are only so many and thats it, no more, but ethereum can increase supply, there is no limit to the number of doge coins that can be made.

There is a FOMO component to them like the gamestop trading, but who knows the market for them could further explode higher or implode to nothing. Cyrptocurrency's value is really at what price the owners can convince the non-owners to buy in.

Financial.Velociraptor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2156
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Houston TX
  • Devour your prey raptors!
    • Living Universe Foundation
Opinions vary.

For me, I have replaced my precious metals allocation with Bitcoin and Ethereum.  They have the same investment case in my mind but BTC and ETH pay an annual yield.  My take is everyone should own a small amount.  Not so much you can't afford to lose it, but enough to materially participate if crypto grows a million percent like the biggest bulls claim is inevitable.

I have about 5,500 in cost basis in my coins and a mark to market value a little over 20k.  Performing much better than my gold and silver ever did.

Telecaster

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3569
  • Location: Seattle, WA
There are a number of Bitcoin/crypto threads in this forum.  It might be worthwhile to read through a couple to get the pros and cons.   

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6717
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
No, I cannot.

ice_beard

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 251
  • Location: East Bay, CA
Ask yourself...
"Do you want to get paid in US Dollars or do you want to get paid in magic internet money?"  -Kai Ryssdal


 

Juan Ponce de León

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 265
LMAO.  I guess some people just really don't like getting free money and prefer to do it the hard way.  Each to their own!

rmorris50

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 454
Ask yourself...
"Do you want to get paid in US Dollars or do you want to get paid in magic internet money?"  -Kai Ryssdal


 
There is a difference? My NW basically feels like magic Internet money now, except for my house.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
Very very simply, BTC is the best inflation hedge you can find.  Inflation is more than just the 2% CPI number, so TIPS won't cut it. There is consumer good inflation (CPI), asset, and service inflation. 
« Last Edit: April 28, 2021, 06:59:03 AM by SuperSecretName »

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5658
If you're holding for some reasonably long term, regular old stocks are a great inflation hedge, actually. So is a low interest rate mortgage.

If you wanted to go the paranoid route, though, I don't see why you'd pick BtC over gold. Gold is much less volatile and at least theoretically usable if the power goes out. BtC is so volatile it's potentially going to bankrupt you, just like it could potentially make you rich. That's not really a "hedge" in any meaningful sense.

I don't own BtC or gold, for what it's worth, because I've learned over 25 years of investing that being optimistic and ignoring the news cycle works out pretty well.

-W

Radagast

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2558
  • One Does Not Simply Work Into Mordor
You pay someone else to buy crypto from them. It's price goes up after you buy it. Now you have more money!

theolympians

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 240
Ask yourself...
"Do you want to get paid in US Dollars or do you want to get paid in magic internet money?"  -Kai Ryssdal


 
There is a difference? My NW basically feels like magic Internet money now, except for my house.

Yes there is difference. Dollars are backed by the gov't. Though that is made fun of, I trust the U.S. gov't more than an anonymous person around the globe.

Whenever I feel tempted by btc there is usually something to bring me back to my bias. The last was Ben Shapiro, shilling for btc.

He said a beneficial aspect is that the gov't doesn't have a role in creating value. He said "we" determine btc's value. That sounded foolish to me. Minimal to no regulation and gaggles of people hoping to get rich quick, around the globe, and anonymous? There is no value there, just the last sucker holding the bag. IMO

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

rmorris50

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 454
Ask yourself...
"Do you want to get paid in US Dollars or do you want to get paid in magic internet money?"  -Kai Ryssdal


 
There is a difference? My NW basically feels like magic Internet money now, except for my house.

Yes there is difference. Dollars are backed by the gov't. Though that is made fun of, I trust the U.S. gov't more than an anonymous person around the globe.

Whenever I feel tempted by btc there is usually something to bring me back to my bias. The last was Ben Shapiro, shilling for btc.

He said a beneficial aspect is that the gov't doesn't have a role in creating value. He said "we" determine btc's value. That sounded foolish to me. Minimal to no regulation and gaggles of people hoping to get rich quick, around the globe, and anonymous? There is no value there, just the last sucker holding the bag. IMO

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So is the US dollar not magic Internet money, or just magic Internet money that is trusted more than Bitcoin?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

rmorris50

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 454
So is the US dollar not magic Internet money, or just magic Internet money that is trusted more than Bitcoin?

Well, for one, the US dollar predates and doesn't require the Internet (or magic). It's also stable. And you use it for taxes. And it doesn't unnecessarily consume enormous amounts of electricity. And it doesn't record all your transactions until the end of time. And it's insured in your bank accounts and those banks watch out for money laundering. And the supply is managed by smart economists. And it's not deflationary. And it probably won't go away unless the country dissolves. And there are some really nifty collectible coins.

But I can see how the two could be confused.
I get it, US dollar is much less likely to go *POOF*, but anything that disappears because people stop believing in it feels like magic. If people stop believing in the US dollar, I guess you can burn what money you do have for warmth. Crypto doesn’t even have that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
So is the US dollar not magic Internet money, or just magic Internet money that is trusted more than Bitcoin?

Well, for one, the US dollar predates and doesn't require the Internet (or magic). (1) It's also stable. (2) And you use it for taxes. And it doesn't unnecessarily consume enormous amounts of electricity.(3) And it doesn't record all your transactions until the end of time. (4) And it's insured in your bank accounts and those banks watch out for money laundering. (5) And the supply is managed by smart economists. (6) And it's not deflationary. (7) And it probably won't go away unless the country dissolves.(8) And there are some really nifty collectible coins.

But I can see how the two could be confused.
1 - Printing money out of thin air is akin to magic
2 - Not stable.  Has lost 50% of it's value in 30 years. ($1 in 1990 is akin to $2 today.)
3 - Not true.  Add up all the banks and the printing and the trucks and the military.  Don't forget the wars.
4 - Physical cash doesn't, but that's only a small part of all USD.  Anything in the banks is tracked.  Wait, are you saying you value your privacy?
5 - lol @ banks and money laundering. They are always getting in trouble for it.
6 - agree to disagree here.  Most of the time they are guessing at what to do.  History is rife with them screwing up (the depression, Nixon-era inflation, 0% rates, even the GFC)
7 - Yeah, it's inflationary.  Meaning it's designed to lose you money every year.  A tribute to the USD emperor from your hard earned savings
8 - Agree, USD isn't going away
« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 07:02:08 AM by SuperSecretName »

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5658
Yes, if your investment strategy is to line the walls of the banana stand with cash, BtC is probably a better idea.

If you actually invest in productive stuff and just hold onto enough cash to make everyday transactions, not so much.

-W

bwall

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1220
7 - Yeah, it's inflationary.  Meaning it's designed to lose you money every year.  A tribute to the USD emperor from your hard earned savings

The greatest saver of all, the People's Republic of China, is thus paying the greatest tribute of anyone. All Americans should recognize this.

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
7 - Yeah, it's inflationary.  Meaning it's designed to lose you money every year.  A tribute to the USD emperor from your hard earned savings

The greatest saver of all, the People's Republic of China, is thus paying the greatest tribute of anyone. All Americans should recognize this.
Actually Japan is the largest foreign holder of treasuries.

But yes, what happens as US hegemony fades away over decades, and China's rises?  We are already starting to see that with it's belt/road initiative, digital yuan, energy deals with Russia.  The ascendency of China is the largest soft threat to the US in the coming decades.

Bitcoin is not a short-term play.  It should be measured in decades.  And it's a hedge that the future world will not look like the current.

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6717
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
As a crypto holder, you will feel the spirit compel you to evangelize across the internet and convert more people to crypto. You will make YouTube videos about the imminent collapse of government-backed money and how 4,000x gains will mean inflation protection. You will spend 4 hours per night in forums and Yahoo Finance article comment sections arguing against crypto skeptics and debating the nuances of manufactured scarcity. Your life will finally have a purpose: to convert more people to being crypto holders so that everyone in the world can be a millionaire (in dollar terms). You'll recruit your family members and friends, having long, deep conversations to get them off the fence and ALL IN.

Your life will also have certainty. As someone who bought into crypto in its still-early days - an early disciple - you are assured of enjoying extravagant wealth in the life to follow the dollar era. Given this assurance, doing well for the world becomes your new and enlightened prerogative, and that means more people need to buy DogeCoin.

Meaning.
Purpose.
Assurance.

This is all over the head of a 5 y/o, but if it's hard, think of it this way: Linus was the happiest character in the Charlie Brown Halloween Special because he had something to believe in. You can be like Linus with your investments. Lucy called Linus a Blockhead. You can be a Blockchainhead and feel similar joy. Got it?

bwall

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1220
7 - Yeah, it's inflationary.  Meaning it's designed to lose you money every year.  A tribute to the USD emperor from your hard earned savings

The greatest saver of all, the People's Republic of China, is thus paying the greatest tribute of anyone. All Americans should recognize this.
Actually Japan is the largest foreign holder of treasuries.

But yes, what happens as US hegemony fades away over decades, and China's rises?  We are already starting to see that with it's belt/road initiative, digital yuan, energy deals with Russia.  The ascendency of China is the largest soft threat to the US in the coming decades.

hmmm...... if you include foreign exchange reserves, which bear no interest, China comes out on top.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves
But, no need to quibble about who's the biggest holder. The fact remains, the tribute, as you call it, is being paid mainly by non-Americans.

China's Belt & Road initiative is off to a rocky start. One country, Malaysia, has pulled out already due to the cost. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3110252/did-belt-and-road-project-malaysia-just-crash-and-burn
So, no smooth sailing there. The fact is the US has most of the world's best dance partners' dance cards fully booked up.

China can't figure out how to float the RMB, so I'll worry about their digital Yuan after they find a way to make their currency fully convertible.

I'm happy that China is buying energy from Russia. Those two countries deserve each other. My question: Are they pricing the energy sales in Rubles or RMB? If neither, then why not? Why can't they trust each other to accept the currency of the counter-party in a few years time? Especially if they BOTH want to get around the USD based system. This would be a perfect opportunity to do so, yet they don't.

I don't see China's rise nearly as inevitable as their demographic decline. Just today China reported unspecified "population growth" when many suspected that it actually declined. https://news.yahoo.com/china-says-population-grew-2020-073352751.html
So, as China's population declines, their ability to grow economically and project power will deteriorate, not expand. China can never make up for the decades of mismanagement and waste lost under Mao. Time is not on China's side.

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
you make good points.  I'm not saying it's destined to happen, but certainly something to be aware of.  The US has been slowly retreating from the international stage.

Lyn Alden has a great write-up on the fraying of the petro-dollar, if you want to take a dive:
https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

re: energy pricing.  Yes, I believe they are starting to price in things other than USD.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/russia-ditches-the-dollar-for-bulk-of-its-exports-to-china

Russia to India also

bwall

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1220
Hmmmm......I would agree that these are points to be aware of.  I would also agree that there is no question that the relative power of the USA is weakening, even as it's absolute power increases. It's another way of saying 'the rest of the world is catching up.' I view this as a natural, healthy development. YMMV.

Russia may invoice day-to-day purchases in EUR that can account for currency fluctuations, but why don't they set oil prices in Rubles? After all, they have to change the USD to Rubles in order to pay their workers, suppliers, rents, etc. A good portion of the energy payments must be inevitably converted to Rubles yet they choose not to price goods in Rubles. Why doesn't Putin set oil prices in Rubles when selling to China? Nothing is preventing him from doing so, other than he himself.

The link to Lyn Alden was an interesting read, but while all-encompassing, I feel that a lot was left out even with the length of the article. I guess this is normal when painting with broad brushstrokes. For example, he suggested that the US invaded Iraq because Saddam sold oil in EUR, not in USD. Does he really believe that played a role? I find the casual claim to be staggering. But, whatever. Same thing with the comparisons of mean wealth and average wealth across countries. He glosses over the fact that it's about the same percentage in the USA as in Germany and offers no mitigating arguments. And that median wealth of the USA and Germany is lower than in Italy--I find that a bit dubious, but, well such is the nature of statistics, I suppose. To each their own.

All in all, I enjoy reading macro/meta trend articles, but at the end of the day they have to be taken with a large grain of salt.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5658
All this macro debate is great, but it misses the point. The USD could lose reserve currency status and/or go to zero, and I wouldn't give a crap, because at least 98% of my NW is in stocks or real estate, which can be bought or sold with any currency de jour.

Now, there would probably be some economic dislocations that accompanied a total collapse of the dollar that maybe would be bad for some of the stocks I own (but maybe good for others) but most of those companies will still be making products and providing services and I can use rubles or bitcoin or cowry shells to buy beer.

I don't understand how BtC is a useful hedge against a dollar collapse unless you are just exclusively hoarding dollar bills (or bolivars, or whatever random cash you want).

That's not to say you might make a ton of money buying and then someday selling BtC, but any number of boring investing plans can work fine in a dystopian USA-down-the-toilet scenario with much less volatility and (financial) risk. If armed gangs are rioting on the streets all bets are off no matter how much or little BtC you have.

-W

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
All this macro debate is great, but it misses the point. The USD could lose reserve currency status and/or go to zero, and I wouldn't give a crap, because at least 98% of my NW is in stocks or real estate, which can be bought or sold with any currency de jour.
What happens if (when) interest rates rise?  Growth stocks suffer as the risk-free rate increases and all the fanciful PEs fall back to earth.  Home prices could also suffer as mortgages become more expensive.  We've had 40 years of falling bond yields, and there's not much further they can go down (putting aside if negative rates would come here).

It all goes back to BTC being a hedge.  Sure, that situation may not happen, but if it does (and there is a non-zero chance at that), bitcoin will help.  The USD doesn't need to collapse for the relative value of bitcoin to increase.

It's been called shmuck insurance.  The future is uncertain, and an allocation to bitcoin can help smooth out the edges.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5658
I don't care about interest rates either, I have plenty of RE debt locked at 3% for the next 29 years.

Again, BtC fluctuates wildly. It might be better than holding cash if you're worried about inflation, but there are a LOT of other ways to accomplish that (internationally diversified stock portfolio, check...) including the "original bitcoin" - gold. You can have all the inflation/interest rate hedging you want, without the insane ups and downs.

It's a great way to speculate on something that might make you rich, or might make you broke, if that's your thing. It's not usable as a currency and it's not really an inflation hedge because it's too volatile.

-W

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
Well, for one, the US dollar...doesn't unnecessarily consume enormous amounts of electricity.(3)

3 - Not true.  Add up all the banks and the printing and the trucks and the military.  Don't forget the wars.

For the record, I did not find this argument compelling.
You have to compare it to what it's replacing.  Mining gold is incredibly dirty and destructive.  And yes, part of our military is there to protect international usage of the dollar.  Let's say the USD stopped being the global reserve currency.  Do you think our military would be the same size?  I don't.

People spend energy on things they value.  You have a washing machine, a car, a garbage disposal, AC, a refrigerator etc...

Regardless, bitcoin is not as bad as people think. 
https://www.coindesk.com/the-last-word-on-bitcoins-energy-consumption
https://www.coindesk.com/frustrating-maddening-all-consuming-bitcoin-energy-debate

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
I don't care about interest rates either, I have plenty of RE debt locked at 3% for the next 29 years.

Again, BtC fluctuates wildly. It might be better than holding cash if you're worried about inflation, but there are a LOT of other ways to accomplish that (internationally diversified stock portfolio, check...) including the "original bitcoin" - gold. You can have all the inflation/interest rate hedging you want, without the insane ups and downs.

It's a great way to speculate on something that might make you rich, or might make you broke, if that's your thing. It's not usable as a currency and it's not really an inflation hedge because it's too volatile.

-W
I am glad that you feel hedged.  Even though your payment might be fixed, the value of your RE isn't.

Volatility is decreasing, but yes, it is certainly still speculative.  It's gone from zero to 1T, there are going to be ups and downs!  That's why you don't put 100% in.  The point isn't to be used to buy a cup of coffee - pretty much everyone agrees on that now (that wasn't always the case).  It's a reserve asset that is there to protect your wealth.  You might have other ways of doing that that you prefer, but this is another option.  Remember that not everyone has access to stocks, or stable governments that won't seize their property or stable currencies.

There was a great podcast recently on the humanitarian aspect.  I don't think this gets enough attention, and is one of the strongest cases.  It can't be confiscated.  You may kill someone trying to get it, but you can't take it.
https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/bitcoins-international-impact-w-alex-gladstein/

Bitcoin is a better gold.  Most properties of gold, bitcoin improves upon.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2021, 06:02:22 AM by SuperSecretName »

bwall

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1220
Just this week another crypto exchange went dark as the owner fled the country. Two billion USD in assets are missing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/bitcoin-btc-ceo-of-turkish-cryptocurrency-exchange-thodex-missing.html

Anyone can run a crypto exchange and there is no oversight whatsoever. Not anyone can own or run a bank. Lots of background checks, etc, thanks to the FDIC.

Two years ago a Canadian exchange, Quadriga, also went dark when the founder died unexpectedly at age 30, in India. This kind of stuff happens when there is no regulation and oversight. It will continue to happen as long as there is no regulation and oversight. And avoiding regulation and oversight is the whole point of crypto.

So, I'm guessing that most people think this can't happen to them. And, they're right, until they aren't.

bwall

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1220
Anyone can run a crypto exchange and there is no oversight whatsoever.

This statement is not accurate. If you set up a crypto exchange in the USA, you will be regulated by FinCEN as a money transmitter, need a license and have to post surety bonds, and be subject to, among other things, federal know your customer regulations.

Which might explain why there aren't many crypto exchanges in the USA! :)

I always thought that the reason no exchanges in the USA ever blew up a la MT GOX was because there weren't any based in the USA. Turns out the real reason might be due to regulation and oversight.

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
Well that settles it then. A 97 year old guy who made his money on insurance and diabetes foods is the final word when it comes new technology.

I'm selling everything.

Telecaster

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3569
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Well that settles it then. A 97 year old guy who made his money on insurance and diabetes foods is the final word when it comes new technology.

I'm selling everything.

Is your position so weak you can't come up with a rebuttal that isn't an ad hominem? 

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
Well that settles it then. A 97 year old guy who made his money on insurance and diabetes foods is the final word when it comes new technology.

I'm selling everything.

Is your position so weak you can't come up with a rebuttal that isn't an ad hominem?
Berkshire was notoriously late to tech because they didn't understand it, and it wasn't in their circle of competence.  So not really ad hominem, more like Munger isn't being consistent about staying in his lane.  Writing off technology because it doesn't throw off an income stream is a great way to miss the future and be stuck selling candy and insurance.

BattlaP

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 183
You have to compare it to what it's replacing.  Mining gold is incredibly dirty and destructive.  And yes, part of our military is there to protect international usage of the dollar.  Let's say the USD stopped being the global reserve currency.  Do you think our military would be the same size?  I don't.

People spend energy on things they value.  You have a washing machine, a car, a garbage disposal, AC, a refrigerator etc...

Regardless, bitcoin is not as bad as people think. 
https://www.coindesk.com/the-last-word-on-bitcoins-energy-consumption
https://www.coindesk.com/frustrating-maddening-all-consuming-bitcoin-energy-debate

I think as a general rule, if you want to make arguments against bitcoins (and all cryptocurrency) outrageous and worryingly increasing energy consumption, you shouldn't be allowed to use blockchain news outlets as a source. Get some independent journalism with scientific rigour.

Despite this, from your linked article, "Now, despite all the caveats listed above, it’s undeniable that Bitcoin not only consumes a lot of energy but produces externalities in the form of CO2 emissions." It also proposes such ludicrous arguments as "super valuable future bitcoin will make all this energy spent look cheap." Gross.

I've seen firsthand a pipeline of crypto investment/belief directly into climate change denialism. Cognitive dissonance is a hell of a drug.

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6717
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
There’s a great article on Bloomberg about how institutional investors are ripping off unsophisticated retail investors who are willing to pay premiums.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-10/wall-street-unleashes-old-tricks-in-2-5-trillion-crypto-jungle?srnd=premium

The ultimate irony is how involvement of institutional investors is held up as a sign that cryptos are legitimate investments. Nah bro, they’re there to take your money.

Michael in ABQ

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2654
I'm sure some sort of digital currency will be adopted widely in the future. However, my basic understanding of bitcoin is that it won't be the one. There's an upper limit on the amount of transaction that can be processed per second which is far lower than Visa and others are already doing, something like 6 per second. Visa probably processes hundreds of transaction per second on average. So bitcoin will not be the thing to buy a cup of coffee with, it will at best replace having a pile of gold coins.

Aside form bitcoin there's hundreds of other digital currencies out there. Which one will become the USD equivalent in 20-30 years and which will become forgotten and worthless? Beats me. Right now it's all speculation.

SwordGuy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8963
  • Location: Fayetteville, NC
I finally found a compelling reason to buy cryptocurrencies.   Not for me, but for some lady friends of mine.

Turns out that some of them allow you to attach text plus NFTs to the "coin".   NFT stands for non-fungible token.   What matters to me is that it can be a photo, for example.   This photo and text become embedded in the coin's blockchain.  I'm unsure whether a purchaser of the coin can remove them from the coin.

I learned about this because someone in an article suggested that ladies should attach unsolicited dick pics as NFTs along with the perp's name, address and phone #, then sending a link back to the person with an offer to sell the coin to them at a markup.  If not, you'll resell the coin and that information will be passed around the world every time the coin changes hands.   The markup on the coin price would just be a service fee for protecting that copy of their artwork. :)  Personally, I would mention that their mom (or wife) or adult children or employers might be very proud of them and their artwork.   

I've now exhausted my knowledge of the subject.

But, if that's a workable strategy, it would be simply wonderful.    It would be the best "dick move" I've ever heard of.

SwordGuy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8963
  • Location: Fayetteville, NC
And if that can be done, the world would be a much better place if someone wrote a very simple, very clear "How-To" article for non-technical ladies to follow.

Sjalabais

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
  • King of Chocolatistan
My take is everyone should own a small amount. 
Great comment, just jumping in here. As always, the question is, when do you leave/cash in earnings? Will you use BTC/ETH like a savings account? I went in with a small amount at 500€/ETH, intending to double it, take out my investment, and let the rest sit.

Turns out, I'm impatient. I removed my original investment at 1000€/ETH. I cashed out the same amount at 2000 €/ETH. Now, it's 3200 €/ETH, and I wonder if I should learn from previous experience and let my tiny stake grow, or just follow my inner bear and remove my investment, be happy with the money.

But, as many others right now, I just have way too much money and nowhere to put it. Everything starts to look pricey. So I'll wait - in strong disbelief.

That's even before remotely discussing the value and functionality of any crypto tech.

Juan Ponce de León

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 265
^^ And therein lies the only real benefit of holding crypto.  Crypto actually goes up.  It's really shocking at first, but after awhile you get used to your new wealth.

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
^^ And therein lies the only real benefit of holding crypto.  Crypto actually goes up.  It's really shocking at first, but after awhile you get used to your new wealth.
Just don't get toooooo used to it.  Not until you've held 5+ years and been through a full cycle.

norajean

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 602
Like you are five? Well, Bobby, sometimes grown ups like to save their money by using it to buy things which will hold value or sometimes increase in value. This game is sort of like betting in a casino. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Daddy hopes by betting on many things some will win a lot.

Sjalabais

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
  • King of Chocolatistan
But daddy could respect Bobby a bit more and read the question, not just the header. Eh?

😘

MrThatsDifferent

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2317
Like you are five? Well, Bobby, sometimes grown ups like to save their money by using it to buy things which will hold value or sometimes increase in value. This game is sort of like betting in a casino. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Daddy hopes by betting on many things some will win a lot.

So, someone on a forum asks for help and information, and asks the information is simplified in a relatable context and you spend your energy mocking the person? What value have you brought to the discussion beyond your disdain and disrespect?

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
Like you are five? Well, Bobby, sometimes grown ups like to save their money by using it to buy things which will hold value or sometimes increase in value. This game is sort of like betting in a casino. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Daddy hopes by betting on many things some will win a lot.

So, someone on a forum asks for help and information, and asks the information is simplified in a relatable context and you spend your energy mocking the person? What value have you brought to the discussion beyond your disdain and disrespect?

johnhenry

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 342
  • Age: 44
  • Location: Midwest

 I'm mostly just a passive investor who truly doesn't understand and stays away from the unknown.  I've googled the hell out of this and i'm still struggling to see how buying into Crypto

That is wise.  But the real danger in Crypto is not that it is unknown, but that it is unregulated.  That's exactly why so many crooks and speculators flock there.  Why?  Well, people aren't rational. And there are plenty who aren't honest either, at least when no one is forcing them to be. Crypto is a playground for them (see Tether).  Compare to casinos.  Their businesses are heavily regulated, but people still flock to those places where the house is guaranteed to win. Even with legal gambling options available, people have shown they are willing to look for riskier, illegal options such as off-shore cards, sports betting. There is nothing to understand about crypto except that it is the latest mania - one that will end like all others, with most folks looking for an "honest investment", especially those getting in late, holding a bag.  The blockchain technology behind it has been around for ages and hasn't been adopted for anything else meaningful.

There isn't much to tell a 5 year old about an imminent car wreck like this except that when there's nothing you can do to prevent it, it is much better to see the wreck and hope it doesn't impact you than to be in one of the cars.

There is no amount of google research that will lead you to some deeper understanding of what's going on in this space. It's a tale as old as time and this won't be the last time it's told.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1372
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Interestingly enough, our friends over at Bogleheads just banned discussion of crypto as an investment strategy.  Also anything under the greater fool theory, e.g. tulip bulbs.

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6717
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Interestingly enough, our friends over at Bogleheads just banned discussion of crypto as an investment strategy.  Also anything under the greater fool theory, e.g. tulip bulbs.

They waited for a correction to do this? Hell, the middle of a correction is the best time to talk about the perils of getting sucked into social media pyramid schemes. It takes out the FOMO so we can discuss the rational basis for greater-fool investments.

Edubb20

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 69
Thank to all for your responses. I think I got what I was looking for by not getting what I was looking for. If that makes sense.

SuperSecretName

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
Interestingly enough, our friends over at Bogleheads just banned discussion of crypto as an investment strategy.  Also anything under the greater fool theory, e.g. tulip bulbs.
Get off my lawn, you youngins!

Back to debating 60/40 or 70/30, if international is necessary and why a sub-3% withdrawal rate is still too risky.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2021, 01:41:44 PM by SuperSecretName »

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5344
I'm not familiar with the Bogleheads discussion, but I do think there are "hidden" features of investing with brokerages like Vanguard or Merrill Lynch, things like same day liquidity, recourse to your funds if the custodian goes bankrupt, the fiduciary standard for advisement. Things that amateurs like me probably cannot list in one sitting, but many of these things are simply missing from the crypto world, and amateurs just don't think to notice them until a crisis hits, and then your money is gone.

Indeed, I was tempted to log into gemini and check on things during the recent selloff, and gemini couldn't even put Bitcoin prices on their price page. I'm sure smaller exchanges were unprepared to handle the web traffic of people panicking and trying to get in and sell, and this sort of thing affects the downside risks of investing in the asset class.