Comparing human beings with investing is preposterous.
Maybe. I don't think they are the same thing. However, everything is interconnected-- especially reason.
That doesn't make sense. It shouldn't matter if you buy $1000 or $100MM, you should do the research and make decisions based upon your investment philosophy, which has yet to be articulated. You kinda sound like a value investor that throws 'hunches' and 'expert' opinions into the mix, along with how you feel on a given day (such as if something "pisses success."
Here we disagree. I do not have one formula I apply to everything. I explore many. Reading it in a book is not good enough for me. I want to try it. I want to try to steal a dividend without owning a stock for a long term. I want to try a speculation when I think a company got slammed by sector blanket sells when it doesn't deserve to be sold and will quickly rebound. (Im looking at you SDRL and I wish I held you longer and used a larger amount and same sith SNSS and now NM. Fuck it, yes, Im betting against the recent trend against coal transports). Make no mistake-- speculation is related to gambling and that is why I will not use 20% of my hard earned money to do it.
Cramer's picks are not worth following: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jim-cramer-still-wont-make-you-rich/
On Cramer:
I learn a lot from Cramer. He is a bright guy with really good supporting staff. When I watch Cramer I keep these things in mind:
1. Entertainment adds the pressure of having to do something all the time even when he knows the best choice is do nothing
2. A lot of his picks or recommendations come from his staff-- not him
3. He must constantly reinvent the show to explore all areas of "investing" to maintain interest and boost ratings.
4. He has rules in place about what he can and can not mention. He can't mention stocks with a micro cap for example because he could literally blow up there value with a recommendation (Im looking at you ESCA ;)
5. He is put on the spot (him and his staff anyway) on making recommendation on buying and selling any stock in the stock market without the time to do thorough research.
That being said, there is a lot to learn from him. There is a lot to learn from the guests he brings on and the macro and micro views he covers. He has connections and knows what some of the key players are doing. While he doesn't say everything out right, he does give you some tells, if you play poker. Im not a big gambler. I prefer the odds being in my favor (Im looking at you stock market).
Anyways, I like the idea of value, but Im not an expert. There are better people to discuss analysis with. I lean towards playing aggressively for gains while maintaining a margin of safety the best I know how. I like to stick with things I know about-- companies I know don't treat their customers like crap. Bank of America might be a value stock but they will never get my money. Maybe that makes me a fool and not a true value investor. I like to take the whole picture into context- not just the Q reports or balance sheets-- although they certainly have merit.
My intuition tells me that the biggest players use more of their gut then they are willing to tell you. They can't tell you that they did it because they felt like it was a good idea. You might lose confidence in them. They will come up with all kinds of Monday-Morning-Quarterback stuff to tell you why they saw it when no one else did. I bet the truth is they had a hunch-- they used the 90% of their brain. Sometimes the facts and balance sheets support it--even better.