Author Topic: Call the bottom of the market!  (Read 4064 times)

Cycling Stache

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Call the bottom of the market!
« on: March 05, 2016, 10:50:29 AM »
After seeing the various market timing threads, I thought it would be fun to have a "call the bottom of the market" thread, and see how close people get. 

The S&P 500 is at 1999.99 today.

If you believe the market is going down and you would hold off investing until it hits a certain point, what is your number?  What is the number that--until it drops below that point--you would not buy.  And conversely, if it does hit that number, you'd comfortably put in the money you had on the sidelines?

BlankCheck

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2016, 11:32:17 AM »
1200.

How many years will the thread stay open?

I hope this invitation extends to the posters playing the role of antagonist in that thread as well.  The ones who mock all the market timers but yet brag about having bought big in January.  I guess their number is somewhere in the 1900s?

Cycling Stache

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2016, 06:44:25 PM »
I mean this as a legitimate inquiry.   The argument against the market timing is two-fold: (1) if the market never gets quite back down to your number, do you never buy; and (2) if it hits your number on the way down, do you commit to going all in?

So, I'm curious if people have their number that they'd wait for, and then really end up waiting for it.  Since these threads stay around, it's actually possible to see if people do buy in if it hits their number, or what they do if it doesn't end up going that low.

I know you've posted on the "market timing" of people excited about the dips, and I think you're half right.  If you have money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip, you're market timing.  But for people who are going to buy anyway, they would have paid the price before the drop, so any drop seems like a good deal relative to what they would have paid before.  The argument against the market timers is not that the market won't go down and give a better price, it's whether they really do buy at that price.

In any event, 1200 seems low to me, but may be possible.  If not, I'm curious to see how that ends up affecting your investment decisions.

mrpercentage

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2016, 06:50:46 PM »
This is not how it works for me. I can not look at someone and instantly determine that they like ham and cheese. Occasionally I may run into someone and get that impression and be right.

I do the same with the market.

Can't tell you it will be X on X date.

I can seem to recognize a change of the tides when they begin.

That is not science but neither is art.

BlankCheck

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2016, 08:10:23 PM »
I mean this as a legitimate inquiry.   The argument against the market timing is two-fold: (1) if the market never gets quite back down to your number, do you never buy; and (2) if it hits your number on the way down, do you commit to going all in?

So, I'm curious if people have their number that they'd wait for, and then really end up waiting for it.  Since these threads stay around, it's actually possible to see if people do buy in if it hits their number, or what they do if it doesn't end up going that low.

I know you've posted on the "market timing" of people excited about the dips, and I think you're half right.  If you have money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip, you're market timing.  But for people who are going to buy anyway, they would have paid the price before the drop, so any drop seems like a good deal relative to what they would have paid before.  The argument against the market timers is not that the market won't go down and give a better price, it's whether they really do buy at that price.

In any event, 1200 seems low to me, but may be possible.  If not, I'm curious to see how that ends up affecting your investment decisions.

This is all valid of course, and I really have to concede that I am not executing any kind of market "strategy" per se. I'm just at a point in my investment life where I'm at an intersection of the need for principal protection and a distrust in an artificially inflated market.  So to answer your questions:  (1) right, I may never buy back in, and (2) I don't think I'll ever see the day when I will go all-in.  That 1200 number is a wild-ass guess of what number might make me say, hey, the market isn't over inflated anymore and might promise some good future returns, so I don't mind putting half my dry powder back into it.  But as you say, 1200 may never happen.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2016, 08:11:59 PM by BlankCheck »

Cycling Stache

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2016, 02:12:02 PM »
A few more "going to cash/market fall" posts have hit the forums recently, so I thought I'd give this thread a bump.  It didn't get a lot of takers last time, but it's another chance to "call" the bottom of the market if you think it's going down and you're getting out until it hits "X" number.

As a reminder, the S&P 500 is at 2,182 today--a 9% increase from March when this thread started, and that's not counting dividend returns.

marty998

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2016, 03:50:26 AM »
Can't say I know enough about the S&P 500 to make a call...

I have a feeling the ASX 200 will bottom out around March 2017. But I will keep investing along the way since there is no way to know for sure.

flyersman

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2016, 08:25:36 AM »
Zero

TheAnonOne

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2016, 10:33:10 AM »
Zero

Hmm, a bet that the human race will be extinct. I suppose this answer is correct on an infinite timeline.

Scandium

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2016, 10:57:49 AM »
1658.37

To remind me please bump this thread next time the S&P drops >20%

Mother Fussbudget

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2016, 12:25:19 PM »
No one can call market bottom, but I predict an 'inflection point' will occur around Nov. 14, 2016 once US election results are in.

waltworks

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2016, 02:16:45 PM »
I have no interest in market timing, but wouldn't one use some % decrease below the overall trend, rather than a specific number? If the S&P is at 3000 in 10 years, and then drops 50%, your "buy when it hits 1400" would never end up causing you to pull the trigger. So if you want in a 1500 right now, then next year (assuming ~7% historical returns) you'd presumably be ok getting in at 1605, right?

I think there's a very decent chance we never see S&P 1400 again. There's also a chance we see S&P back in 3 digits next week. Nobody knows, but one would assume at least you'd account for the underlying trend when deciding when to invest.

-W

Cycling Stache

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2017, 07:22:40 AM »
In honor of Sol's call the top thread, I'm brushing this one off.  It's a call the bottom thread.  I never got many takers despite the constant market was about to crash posts.   S&P 500 was at 2000 at the start of this thread in March 2016--almost exactly 1 year ago.  2,372 today.

Mother Fussbudget

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2017, 04:47:58 PM »
Oddly enough...  I've been thinking about inflection points this week - Weds (3/14/2017) is another candidate for an inflection point.
The FED will likely raise interest rates .25%.  Will the market react?  Possibly.  But who knows.

AND, Sol is RIGHT... as JLCollinsNH says - you can't merely call the BOTTOM you also have to call THE TOP.
I. Am. Not. Qualified. To. Do. That. Reliably.

I've been watching the behavior of the DOW, S&P & Nasdaq averages after the recent Dow 21,000.  It's as if we've found resistance at that level, and pulled back (aka 'oversold').  Which direction will the market move?  Odds are DOWN. 

It's VERY HARD to call price directions in this crazy market when POTUS can affect markets with a Tweet from 'the throne' @ 5am.

Travis

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2017, 06:50:49 PM »
No one can call market bottom, but I predict an 'inflection point' will occur around Nov. 14, 2016 once US election results are in.

How do you define an inflection point?  It almost sounds like "the market will do something today" kind of prediction.

waltworks

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Re: Call the bottom of the market!
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2017, 08:22:01 PM »
"Resistance" and "inflection point" and terms like that are basically just used by folks who like to find patterns in randomness (aka "technical analysis"). In theory, if you zoom in far enough, a shoreline is infinite, and likewise you can find as many "inflection points" as you want in stock market data - it just depends on how big of an "inflection" you want to look at.

-W