i don' know what calculator you used that showed 3% for 40 years with no equity's is fine , but using actual historial data it has not stress tested well at all .
unless you are getting a very high rate of return for 40 years on that income it did not test well using actual historical data .
figuring 3 million dollars i i show 40 years drawing 85k inflation adjusted with zero equitys has failed at 3% to many times to be considered safe .
FIRECalc looked at the 106 possible 40 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $3,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 106 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-1,152,047 to $9,986,101, with an average at the end of $1,149,092. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 40 years. FIRECalc found that 26 cycles failed, for a success rate of 75.5%.
historically you would have to take a 20% pay cut to 65k to even get up to 95% with zero equity's . i prefer seeing 100% as a backstop .
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 106 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-272,076 to $11,695,250, with an average at the end of $2,348,823. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 40 years. FIRECalc found that 5 cycles failed, for a success rate of 95.3%.
adding just 25% equity's tested much better and is the path i would go . .
FIRECalc looked at the 106 possible 40 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $3,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 106 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $135,341 to $14,982,899, with an average at the end of $3,415,209. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 40 years. FIRECalc found that 0 cycles failed, for a success rate of 100.0%.