Typically, because ex-dividend dates are known well before hand, what you will typically see is that the spread on the buy-sell for options diverges as you get close to the date. What's actually happening is that the formulas that know to trade around this are already pricing in the eventual drop, so the market cools a bit fully expecting the drop to occur.
The only way to work around this is to either, know before others, or buy in early. The risk with option 2 is of course that the price rises up while you're holding and your $15 drop doesn't drop nearly as big as you thought it would.
The only exception to this are the option traders that are working the market, you might be able to get some volume here that is not priced in line with the market. Usually anything further than ~40% off the expected price is bought off, although again that depends on the bots. The bigger that prices diverge from the expected range, in both volume and price, the more red flags go up and the formula will either trade in to it, or move out (ie it doesn't know what's causing this huge difference, so it moves off to the sidelines until clearer lines are established).
Can you take advantage of this? Ehhh yes maybe, but keep in mind that whoever is on the other side can have bigger pockets,
on top of that you might have trouble offloading that much option volume depending of course on the price and the underlying stock. There is a worst case where you can't offload your options and you either sell at a discount, or hold to execute (uhh in which case you better have the margin available to exercise those options, even temporarily)
Do you think it's a sure thing? I think you need to adjust your expectation until it's down to a reasonable expectation of this trade going either way (mind you, not 50-50, merely that either direction has some chance of occurring), and then you can fire it off if you still think it is a worthwhile risk, or if the odds are good in your favor.
Things to consider:
- Remember to set some very rigid guidelines on when to exit, especially if things don't turn out the way you thought it would.
- the dividend drop, both in price point and existing orders is adjusted automatically by the market. This is enforced so that come ex-dividend you don't suddenly have a load of orders that are mispriced. Therefor, do not make your order for the day right after and expect it all to work out, prices adjust. Make your order earlier and watch the market for either hitting your pullout point, or for the expected market event to occur.
- If things don't go your way, I would heavily advise you to not hold on waiting for something to bail you out. The trade is based on certain criteria, the dividend. It is perfectly okay to exit the position once those criteria are no longer the case (in this case, the dividend dropping the stock below a certain price point) and recover some of your investment
- The buy-sell of an option can also, on its own change in price based on the underlying sentiment, not Only on the underlying stock price. For instance, a lot of fear about earnings has a mild effect on Puts as people buy up puts for insurance form a drop. These prices, on their own fluctuate the value of the options, on top of the intrinsic and time value of the options.