Author Topic: Buy the rumor, sell the news  (Read 12920 times)

Vagabond76

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Buy the rumor, sell the news
« on: June 23, 2016, 08:50:44 AM »
Stocks are up today but will go down tomorrow.  The "rumor" yesterday and today is that Britain will vote remain.  The "news" tomorrow will either be remain or leave.

If the vote is to remain, stocks will decline a little on the news.

If the vote is to leave, stocks will tank as the remain rumor is priced in and markets don't like uncertainty.

There is no way to win tomorrow by being long.  Might as well sell the farm today and buy it back for less.

AdrianC

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2016, 10:29:45 AM »
Funny :-)

Heckler

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2016, 10:37:25 AM »
I hope you're right. I've got $4k riding on it all going down tomorrow.  I tried to buy yesterday, but was $0.01 low on my bid. 

FIRE47

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2016, 02:35:56 PM »
Possibly - the remain seems to have been priced in over the last couple of days as odds appeared to shift that way, so a leave would mean a massive crash most likely - although a remain may still have some modest upside or be neutral tomorrow.

At the end of the day if you're in long-term its just more noise.

tonysemail

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2016, 04:32:42 PM »
i can empathize.  I'm giving the market another week or so before I pull the trigger on a lump sum investment.
Boy, I missed out on a nice gain today :P

Indexer

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2016, 06:08:54 PM »
Why do you assume they will go down regardless?  A vote to remain could prompt stocks to rise.

But the bigger question is who cares? 20 years from now will you remember if you bought on June 23rd or 24th?

FIRE47

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2016, 07:40:42 PM »
This appears to have somehow become a black swan since everyone thought they knew so well what would happen now it looks like just the opposite. Look for the last couple days rally to erase and unless things change in the next hour or so.

Heckler

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2016, 08:10:45 PM »
20 years from now will you remember if you bought on June 23rd or 24th?

what if I have a 5 year fuck you plan?

Cyaphas

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2016, 08:29:22 PM »
This appears to have somehow become a black swan since everyone thought they knew so well what would happen now it looks like just the opposite. Look for the last couple days rally to erase and unless things change in the next hour or so.

If the UK leaves... Which country goes next? Germany?

Vagabond76

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2016, 08:30:49 PM »
Why do you assume they will go down regardless?  A vote to remain could prompt stocks to rise.

Traders may breathe a sign of relief tomorrow, but the indices will still be modestly down. A remain vote is already priced in, and traders will take recent profits. Regardless, the close vote only shows there is too much uncertainty in the world for stocks to go up.

But the bigger question is who cares? 20 years from now will you remember if you bought on June 23rd or 24th?

20 years from now, who knows, I could be dead. But Jun 23 will always be the day I unloaded $300,000 of stock.  Because of this and other reasons, I want to see a "Brexit" and a good old-fashioned crash tomorrow. For everyone else, fuck 'em. Think 1987-style crash.

mrpercentage

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2016, 08:36:07 PM »
Oh yeah the last time I saw a premarket like this was August

mrpercentage

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2016, 08:45:09 PM »
Get out your wallets boys!



FIRE47

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2016, 08:48:49 PM »
Get out your wallets boys!




Haha saw your first picture and was going to say don't hit refresh lol. Ouch going to be nasty out there tomorrow can't imagine British investors who have a big home country bias probly going to be down double digits at this rate.

Vagabond76

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2016, 08:53:17 PM »
Those futures numbers are almost better than sex.

FIRE47

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2016, 08:55:29 PM »
Those futures numbers are almost better than sex.

Lol congrats if you aren't full of crap that you sold everything today. The only consolation for me is that 20% or so of my holdings are in usd which are surging but that will in no way save me tomorrow against what is to come

Vagabond76

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2016, 08:59:50 PM »
Those futures numbers are almost better than sex.

Lol congrats if you aren't full of crap that you sold everything today. The only consolation for me is that 20% or so of my holdings are in usd which are surging but that will in no way save me tomorrow against what is to come

Not everything, but I sold $300k today.

Cyaphas

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2016, 09:07:34 PM »
Those futures numbers are almost better than sex.

Lol congrats if you aren't full of crap that you sold everything today. The only consolation for me is that 20% or so of my holdings are in usd which are surging but that will in no way save me tomorrow against what is to come

I'm 100% USD... Deciding if this is the rock and to wait for the ripples or a one time thing. The intelligent part of me feels this is only the beginning.

Heckler

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2016, 09:10:33 PM »
Not fucking around, are you Vagabond?   Best of luck!

I coincidentally sold $15k of my EAFE fund from my higher fee work provider and transferred it to my self directed ETFs.  Plan is to buy the same EAFE index as soon as the cheque rolls into my account.  Wouldn't it be funny if it was tomorrow.  Totally not trying to time the market here BTW. 

Cyaphas

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2016, 09:11:34 PM »
This is the beginning of an International Dine and Ditch. We may have our first runner!

FIRE47

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2016, 09:13:05 PM »
Not fucking around, are you Vagabond?   Best of luck!

I coincidentally sold $15k of my EAFE fund from my higher fee work provider and transferred it to my self directed ETFs.  Plan is to buy the same EAFE index as soon as the cheque rolls into my account.  Wouldn't it be funny if it was tomorrow.  Totally not trying to time the market here BTW.

Seems like it's paid off for him pound is down most in history at this point. It was 52% remain by all available information until after the markets closed so he would have had better odds at the roulette wheel but he has done it lol.

mrpercentage

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2016, 09:14:22 PM »
Those futures numbers are almost better than sex.

Lol congrats if you aren't full of crap that you sold everything today. The only consolation for me is that 20% or so of my holdings are in usd which are surging but that will in no way save me tomorrow against what is to come

I'm 100% USD... Deciding if this is the rock and to wait for the ripples or a one time thing. The intelligent part of me feels this is only the beginning.

Yeah. I'm going to guess a big drop tomorrow 1000+ points mid day maybe a late rally then another huge drop on Monday for investor redemptions. Who knows where from there

whodidntante

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2016, 09:18:04 PM »
Crazy forex action tonight.  Tomorrow will be interesting. 

Vagabond76

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2016, 09:27:54 PM »
Not fucking around, are you Vagabond?   Best of luck!

I coincidentally sold $15k of my EAFE fund from my higher fee work provider and transferred it to my self directed ETFs.  Plan is to buy the same EAFE index as soon as the cheque rolls into my account.  Wouldn't it be funny if it was tomorrow.  Totally not trying to time the market here BTW.

Seems like it's paid off for him pound is down most in history at this point. It was 52% remain by all available information until after the markets closed so he would have had better odds at the roulette wheel but he has done it lol.

The markets will be down on "sell the news" and profit taking even if Remain comes back and wins. Right now, Leave is +650,000 votes.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2016, 02:21:55 AM »
This appears to have somehow become a black swan since everyone thought they knew so well what would happen now it looks like just the opposite. Look for the last couple days rally to erase and unless things change in the next hour or so.

If the UK leaves... Which country goes next? Germany?

Actually, France would be my guess. They didn't really hitch their horse to the EU carriage either.

mjones1234

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2016, 05:37:25 AM »
I did the same yesterday. At 3:45, I unloaded 275k using the sell the news philosophy. I'm going to watch this play out for a bit. The market hates uncertainty so I don't think this will be a one day drop then rebound on Monday.

Mr. Green

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2016, 07:30:33 AM »
World markets are already starting to pare their loses a little bit. US futures are only down about 3%. If loses are pared late in the day and you take yesterday's 1.5% gain on the expectation that GB would stay, you potentially sold 300k for a 1-1.5% differential? That's dicey!

FIRE47

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2016, 08:40:18 AM »
World markets are already starting to pare their loses a little bit. US futures are only down about 3%. If loses are pared late in the day and you take yesterday's 1.5% gain on the expectation that GB would stay, you potentially sold 300k for a 1-1.5% differential? That's dicey!

Not only that but it was a losing bet up to about 7:30 last night - the logic was based on a flawed "sell the news" and that there was no upside left for a remain - which appeared untrue as the futures and sterling were already beginning to spike upward at whispers of exit polls and "leave" conceding defeat.

The fact is he got real lucky lol. But if you take too many 300k bets when the odds are stacked against you - you're going to lose.

TheInsuranceMan

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2016, 08:41:08 AM »
I guess I bought in cheap on my 401k contributions today! 

Vagabond76

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2016, 10:00:25 AM »
World markets are already starting to pare their loses a little bit. US futures are only down about 3%. If loses are pared late in the day and you take yesterday's 1.5% gain on the expectation that GB would stay, you potentially sold 300k for a 1-1.5% differential? That's dicey!

Not sure I understand this. I sold yesterday, meaning I locked in yesterday's gains. If I bought back today, I would have saved $8k of losses. However, big drops historically take 3 sessions. Plus there is "contagion" fear all over Europe. I'm gonna let this play out until next week.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 10:13:09 AM by Vagabond76 »

onlykelsey

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2016, 10:10:31 AM »
This appears to have somehow become a black swan since everyone thought they knew so well what would happen now it looks like just the opposite. Look for the last couple days rally to erase and unless things change in the next hour or so.

If the UK leaves... Which country goes next? Germany?

Actually, France would be my guess. They didn't really hitch their horse to the EU carriage either.

I would bet on Germany being pretty much the last to leave.

Maybe a Southern European state.  I think we will definitely see the pressure in accession talks. 

grettman

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2016, 10:52:55 AM »
Congrats on being right.    Since I don't have crystal ball or trust anyone else's for that matter, I do nothing on this or any other news like it.  I am just going to continue to buy every two weeks and hold for about 17 more years. 

...errr...just found a few hundred dollars in my vanguard account sitting as cash..looks like VTI threw off some dividend turds I didn't know where there...so I am buying today.....

forummm

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2016, 11:06:36 AM »
Those futures numbers are almost better than sex.

Lol congrats if you aren't full of crap that you sold everything today. The only consolation for me is that 20% or so of my holdings are in usd which are surging but that will in no way save me tomorrow against what is to come

I'm 100% USD... Deciding if this is the rock and to wait for the ripples or a one time thing. The intelligent part of me feels this is only the beginning.

Yeah. I'm going to guess a big drop tomorrow 1000+ points mid day maybe a late rally then another huge drop on Monday for investor redemptions. Who knows where from there

1000+ points!?!? Because of some relatively minor goings on in the UK? This is not that big an event. It will take the UK a couple years to get out. And things are going to look pretty similar to the past decades. Getting out just costs the UK more and causes disruption. It's a pretty silly move for them. Markets can definitely overreact (and it seems that they have today--and even so, not by 1000+ points). But the fundamentals haven't changed that dramatically.

forummm

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #32 on: June 24, 2016, 11:08:43 AM »
This appears to have somehow become a black swan since everyone thought they knew so well what would happen now it looks like just the opposite. Look for the last couple days rally to erase and unless things change in the next hour or so.

If the UK leaves... Which country goes next? Germany?

Actually, France would be my guess. They didn't really hitch their horse to the EU carriage either.

I would bet on Germany being pretty much the last to leave.

Maybe a Southern European state.  I think we will definitely see the pressure in accession talks. 

It'll be pretty hard for any country that adopted the Euro to leave. UK was easier because they didn't. Definitely easier for a very stable economy like Germany than for a disaster like Greece.

Tyson

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #33 on: June 24, 2016, 11:14:20 AM »
Britain may be making things worse for themselves on a massive scale, but hey, at least they are "taking their country back!"  Hooray!

Vagabond76

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #34 on: June 24, 2016, 12:40:49 PM »
In the grand scheme of world history, Brexit is meaningless. Compared to other economic and political events, such as WWII, the Great Depression, and slavery, Brexit is nothing.

But that doesn't mean the markets didn't misprice the meaningless event. I simply took advantage of it. Leave wasn't priced in and traders don't know how to evaluate it. Remain would have been a small scale sell the news event. Either way, the market was going down and I would make money. Yes--I was lucky in that I caught the bigger of the two drops.

Mr. Green

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #35 on: June 24, 2016, 01:42:43 PM »
The point I was driving at was that it looked like you expected a much larger drop. Of course there's still 20 more minutes to the session and there's next week too but given that the net movement so far (yesterday's gain for staying minus today's loss) has only been 2%, the market could just as easily be irrational in a way you wouldn't expect by posting a gain. Certainly not today but suppose Monday bounces back 200-300 points. How long would you wait to buy back in? What if the next big drop never came? Unless you're buying back in today it leaves you open to Murphy and he really loves messing with people when it comes to the market.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #36 on: June 24, 2016, 01:49:26 PM »
This appears to have somehow become a black swan since everyone thought they knew so well what would happen now it looks like just the opposite. Look for the last couple days rally to erase and unless things change in the next hour or so.

If the UK leaves... Which country goes next? Germany?

Actually, France would be my guess. They didn't really hitch their horse to the EU carriage either.

I would bet on Germany being pretty much the last to leave.

Maybe a Southern European state.  I think we will definitely see the pressure in accession talks.

Agree. I've also heard some interesting thought that some of the Scandinavian countries may be next to bail - will be interesting to see.

Cyaphas

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2016, 01:51:23 PM »

In the grand scheme of world history, Brexit is meaningless. Compared to other economic and political events, such as WWII, the Great Depression, and slavery, Brexit is nothing.


The great depression & the world wars didn't just start when some dude blew a whistle. It was Nationalistic events like this and banking environments like the one we're in that were the prelude.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 03:11:04 PM by Cyaphas »

onlykelsey

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2016, 02:00:04 PM »
This appears to have somehow become a black swan since everyone thought they knew so well what would happen now it looks like just the opposite. Look for the last couple days rally to erase and unless things change in the next hour or so.

If the UK leaves... Which country goes next? Germany?

Actually, France would be my guess. They didn't really hitch their horse to the EU carriage either.

I would bet on Germany being pretty much the last to leave.

Maybe a Southern European state.  I think we will definitely see the pressure in accession talks. 

It'll be pretty hard for any country that adopted the Euro to leave. UK was easier because they didn't. Definitely easier for a very stable economy like Germany than for a disaster like Greece.

I was thinking more from the position of who is now the power broker in the EU.  It's been Germany for decades, but now they're unchallenged.  If I'm Greece, I am not happy about that.

Mother Fussbudget

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2016, 03:02:01 PM »
And Scotland may re-visit their independence vote focused on:  Become Independent, and re-join the EU.
Good on you guys who stuck to your guns, and took money off the table.  I only risked $3K buying S&P August puts (up $3K today) as a hedge against a larger drop.  Fortunately, I think this will be a short term situation for the US.  It may drive the EU into recession, but it will take longer for an EU recession to have a lasting impact on US GDP.

Mr. Green

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2016, 03:51:48 PM »
Has anyone seen the WaPo article that shows Google searches for "What is the EU?" and the like spiking in GB immediately after the vote was confirmed and markets started to unwind? Looks like a decent number of people didn't even know what they were voting for. Makes me wonder if there's a chance they may end up with a re-vote. What a CF.

FIRE47

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2016, 07:07:44 PM »
Has anyone seen the WaPo article that shows Google searches for "What is the EU?" and the like spiking in GB immediately after the vote was confirmed and markets started to unwind? Looks like a decent number of people didn't even know what they were voting for. Makes me wonder if there's a chance they may end up with a re-vote. What a CF.

It does seem a little silly that someone would play chicken with a referendum like this - reading about it all it seems more and more like a political maneuver gone horribly wrong and that Cameron may go down as the worst pm in history. It's also sadly seeming like a lot of people had no idea what they were asking for and the brexit leaders never expected to really win. Now they are stuck with a slow march to a cliff no one may really want.

Cyaphas

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #42 on: June 24, 2016, 07:33:22 PM »
Has anyone seen the WaPo article that shows Google searches for "What is the EU?" and the like spiking in GB immediately after the vote was confirmed and markets started to unwind? Looks like a decent number of people didn't even know what they were voting for. Makes me wonder if there's a chance they may end up with a re-vote. What a CF.

It does seem a little silly that someone would play chicken with a referendum like this - reading about it all it seems more and more like a political maneuver gone horribly wrong and that Cameron may go down as the worst pm in history. It's also sadly seeming like a lot of people had no idea what they were asking for and the brexit leaders never expected to really win. Now they are stuck with a slow march to a cliff no one may really want.

Or... They were the first country to leave the EU. It may force the EU to get their collective shit together or it may destroy an organization thats been enabling a lot of government waste. I think Britain is going to come out of this better than some predict. This is a big message; we'll see who gets it and what they do with it.

mrpercentage

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2016, 08:17:54 PM »
Markets and investing aside. Good for Britain!! They were in a one sided relationship and they finally told them to take a hike.


Indexer

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2016, 07:53:48 AM »
20 years from now will you remember if you bought on June 23rd or 24th?

what if I have a 5 year fuck you plan?

Then 1 day still shouldn't matter, and even if you have a 5 year plan you are going to be retired for decades.



Just threw another 5% into international. :D

forummm

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #45 on: June 26, 2016, 10:30:26 AM »
Britain may be making things worse for themselves on a massive scale, but hey, at least they are "taking their country back!"  Hooray!

They're rebuilding Hadrian's Wall (it's going to be a really beautiful wall). The will Make Britannia Great Again.

Tyson

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #46 on: June 27, 2016, 10:24:34 AM »
It's amazing how a bunch of new brown people make a whole country go collectively insane.  Tribalism and xenophobia are alive and well in the new century, even in 'civilized' countries. 

I think even the politicians were surprised that this passed.

mohawkbrah

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #47 on: July 01, 2016, 11:58:27 PM »
It's amazing how a bunch of new brown people make a whole country go collectively insane.  Tribalism and xenophobia are alive and well in the new century, even in 'civilized' countries. 

I think even the politicians were surprised that this passed.

your tune will change once they start coming to you country and in your city. fiddling little children and practicing shariah law.

JrDoctor

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #48 on: July 12, 2016, 02:49:23 PM »
your tune will change once they start coming to you country and in your city. fiddling little children and practicing shariah law.

And this ladies and gentleman is the kind of idiot with half formed idiotic ideas who was allowed to vote us out of Europe. 
I bought housebuilders, only 2k worth, but a nice 400 bonus in my account. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Buy the rumor, sell the news
« Reply #49 on: July 12, 2016, 04:19:12 PM »
your tune will change once they start coming to you country and in your city. fiddling little children and practicing shariah law.

And this ladies and gentleman is the kind of idiot with half formed idiotic ideas who was allowed to vote us out of Europe. 
I bought housebuilders, only 2k worth, but a nice 400 bonus in my account.

Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.....and they usually stink.

Your friend right there is no exception........ignorance is bliss I suppose.