Author Topic: buy bank stocks on the dip  (Read 117632 times)

Weathering

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #400 on: July 16, 2023, 01:04:15 PM »
The federal home loan banks and federal farm credit banks seem to have missed out on today’s interest rate spike. Very little activity there, possible due to no new issues being floated today. I have Ffb 6.15% and Fhlb 6.23% bonds that could be called any day now.
It's hard to buy bank bonds for just over 6% when AAA rated FFB and FHLB bonds can be had yielding 5.8%-5.9%. I wonder how likely it is that these agency bonds actually get called when interest rates fall? Does anyone have insights on this question?

Also, I'm not sure long duration interest rates actually will fall. The recession pattern that repeatedly occurred in the past was for the yield curve to un-invert due to the short end falling - Fed rate cuts - while the long end stays relatively stable.

My experience with FFB and FHLB bonds has been they get called as soon as interest rates are lower than that of the bond. I think GSE’s pay lower issuance costs when floating a new bond compared to corporations. Therefore, the rule of thumb whereby corporate bonds don’t get called until interest rates are 1-2% lower than the bond’s coupon does not hold true for GSE’s.

As of this week, I’m seeing FFB and FHLB bonds being issued right at 6%, so any bonds above that coupon are at increased risk of being called at their earliest call date. I have a lot of GSE bonds and will decide what to do when each one gets called.

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #401 on: July 17, 2023, 07:14:26 AM »
The federal home loan banks and federal farm credit banks seem to have missed out on today’s interest rate spike. Very little activity there, possible due to no new issues being floated today. I have Ffb 6.15% and Fhlb 6.23% bonds that could be called any day now.
It's hard to buy bank bonds for just over 6% when AAA rated FFB and FHLB bonds can be had yielding 5.8%-5.9%. I wonder how likely it is that these agency bonds actually get called when interest rates fall? Does anyone have insights on this question?

Also, I'm not sure long duration interest rates actually will fall. The recession pattern that repeatedly occurred in the past was for the yield curve to un-invert due to the short end falling - Fed rate cuts - while the long end stays relatively stable.
My experience with FFB and FHLB bonds has been they get called as soon as interest rates are lower than that of the bond. I think GSE’s pay lower issuance costs when floating a new bond compared to corporations. Therefore, the rule of thumb whereby corporate bonds don’t get called until interest rates are 1-2% lower than the bond’s coupon does not hold true for GSE’s.

As of this week, I’m seeing FFB and FHLB bonds being issued right at 6%, so any bonds above that coupon are at increased risk of being called at their earliest call date. I have a lot of GSE bonds and will decide what to do when each one gets called.
Thanks for the insights. It explains the large discount on callable AAA agencies versus treasuries. Sounds like the effective duration of callable agency bonds sold at par is approximately the market's expected date for the first rate cut - currently 6-8 months.

In a recession, it sounds like these will dump investors into the scenario they feared when they shopped for bonds: stuck with cash amid lower yields and falling-knife stocks. If rates continue to rise, investors will wish they had bought at the shorter end of the curve.

 

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #402 on: July 17, 2023, 12:06:10 PM »
There's a number of banks that the regulators could come in and declare not adequately capitalized and force them to raise equity at any time.
This weekend's episode of "Wall Street Week" interviewed a Law Professor at Columbia about bank regulation - so I'm not sure if the expertise matches the topic.  But her take was that regulators could increase capital requirements on regional banks, fearing a repeat of SVB.  Having to keep more money at the bank means loaning out less - which doesn't cause people to stop needing money.

I don't recall if the term "shadow banking" was said, but it sounds like where people get loans when banks won't lend.  It becomes important to monitor the loans that are happening outside the regulated industry (which is harder to track, lacking regulation).

What are your thoughts on regional banks and shadow banking in the second half of 2023?

Michael in ABQ

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #403 on: July 17, 2023, 12:51:14 PM »
I don't recall if the term "shadow banking" was said, but it sounds like where people get loans when banks won't lend.  It becomes important to monitor the loans that are happening outside the regulated industry (which is harder to track, lacking regulation).

What are your thoughts on regional banks and shadow banking in the second half of 2023?

I'm in the ecommerce business and I can tell you there is a lot of shadow banking going on there - mostly revenue based financing. This includes big players like Amazon, Shopify, PayPal, and QuickBooks - all of whom can see your revenue coming in and take a daily/weekly/monthly piece of it to pay back a loan. In most cases since the money is coming through their platform they can make sure they get paid first.

A lot of these loans have effective interest rates of 15-25%+ because they're actually a series of micro-loans where you might have a 6-month term but you're paying back 1/6th of the loan at the end of the first month. They market it as having a fee of say 5% for a 6-month term. The non-financially savvy borrower sees that and thinks "5% interest rate, that's pretty good" or if they're a little more sophisticated they double it to get an annual rate of 10% and still think it's a reasonable deal. In reality, the blended APR is 24.5%.

There are a lot of other players in this market that base their underwriting off of being connected to your Amazon/Shopify store but they don't actually stand between you and your money so they charge even higher rates. Some of them don't realize they are offering unsecured loans and they have little or no recourse if a borrower decided to stop paying and tells them to pound sand.

Most of these were marketed to use for purchasing inventory or advertising. If you've created a machine where you put in $1 and get $2-3 out the other end (return on advertising spend) with high enough margins or customer lifetime value many companies tried to scale that as much as they could. With interest rates rising a lot of these loans no longer make sense and there will probably be a lot of marginal businesses that default. At the end of the day though this is a pretty small corner of the financial industry and some of these shadow lenders cratering would have little repercussion for the wider market.

Good businesses can still access capital, it's just gotten more expensive. Not like in 2008 where even the strongest business simply couldn't get a loan anywhere and saw existing lines of credit reduced or eliminated.

The other aspect of this is the consumer facing "buy now, pay later" loans. I could see some of those getting hit if/when the economy goes into a recession. They're in the same boat as other unsecured lenders and trying to get $100 out of a consumer that defaulted won't be cost effective.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #404 on: July 17, 2023, 01:31:15 PM »
Meanwhile $UPST is up 14% today, nothing like seeing an unprofitable, high risk consumer lender going up almost 2x from the bottom

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #405 on: July 18, 2023, 10:26:56 AM »
More earnings thoughts...

Most banks are beating expectations off better pricing in their loan books.

Net interest income (margin) is down across the board, but less than expected.   Looks like a combination of a little better pricing in the loan book and deposit prices not spiking as much as expected. 

Bank CRE / commercial problems are still non-existent, the provision build we're seeing is all about the consumer.    That's not forever, but interesting to watch.

The bond marks weren't as bad as I expected for the quarter given where the 5yrT closed.   Bank of America, which I own and has a lot of MBS exposure grew it's total equity, capital ratios, and still bought a few shares back and paid a dividend while absorbing the bond marks.

The moves are interesting, my microcaps aren't moving at all while I'm up 25% to 35% on the well run small regionals of PNFP and FHN.

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #406 on: July 18, 2023, 10:48:55 AM »
The moves are interesting, my microcaps aren't moving at all while I'm up 25% to 35% on the well run small regionals of PNFP and FHN.
Any theories on why that would be? Does the asset mix or cost of capital vary by size? Is a bank stock with an options market more attractive than a bank stock with no possibility of hedging?

Michael in ABQ

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #407 on: July 18, 2023, 11:52:59 AM »
More earnings thoughts...

Most banks are beating expectations off better pricing in their loan books.

Net interest income (margin) is down across the board, but less than expected.   Looks like a combination of a little better pricing in the loan book and deposit prices not spiking as much as expected. 

Bank CRE / commercial problems are still non-existent, the provision build we're seeing is all about the consumer.    That's not forever, but interesting to watch.

The bond marks weren't as bad as I expected for the quarter given where the 5yrT closed.   Bank of America, which I own and has a lot of MBS exposure grew it's total equity, capital ratios, and still bought a few shares back and paid a dividend while absorbing the bond marks.

The moves are interesting, my microcaps aren't moving at all while I'm up 25% to 35% on the well run small regionals of PNFP and FHN.

Yep, my PNFP is up about 32%. The rest of the preferred shares are up 11-25% and have a weighted average yield of just over 11%.

Thanks for the advice a few months back. Alas, this was just some cash I had leftover in a taxable account so my total position is under $1k. Still, $50/year in dividends plus potential for a few hundred more in appreciation isn't nothing.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #408 on: July 18, 2023, 12:00:55 PM »
The moves are interesting, my microcaps aren't moving at all while I'm up 25% to 35% on the well run small regionals of PNFP and FHN.
Any theories on why that would be? Does the asset mix or cost of capital vary by size? Is a bank stock with an options market more attractive than a bank stock with no possibility of hedging?

My theory is the market gets less efficient the smaller the bank.   Less shares outstanding, a lot less float because of retail / legacy holders.   The ones in the Russell 2000 and KRE get more action overall, then the larger the bank the more exposure it sees.  My $SMMF and $NKSH are following the Russell while $PNFP and $FHN are up way more than the index.   The two I own in VA I don't expect to move much until after Q3, they are both building equity internally and need another quarter for the bond marks to come down before they can repurchase additional shares or pay higher dividends.  Fortunately buying a well run 15%+ ROE business at below tangible book value means that equity eventually makes it to the shareholders.

It's not all fun and games, my #shitbank I own $ASRV just managed to report a loss today thanks to blowing $1.6mil in legal fees fighting against an activist nominating candidates for a shareholder vote.  They have an overpaid board that doesn't own shares themselves.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2023, 12:05:59 PM by chasesfish »

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #409 on: July 19, 2023, 10:27:55 AM »
Welp, in two trading days one of my two microcaps fixed that issue and is now up 13.5%.   There are some banks that could be way ahead of themselves given what earnings will be, but what do I know, most bull markets are like this.

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #410 on: July 19, 2023, 11:22:20 AM »
I really regret not holding my nerve with PACWP, sigh. Oh well. I made the mental 'I'll feel worse if they go to zero' calculation, so I have to live with it.

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #411 on: July 19, 2023, 02:52:19 PM »
Nothing to do with bank stocks specifically, but if you are holding the right stock right now, it is running up like crazy.  Other very similar stocks at much better valuation are treading water.  It's crazy!  I can neither buy nor sell!!!

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #412 on: July 19, 2023, 06:21:04 PM »
Nothing to do with bank stocks specifically, but if you are holding the right stock right now, it is running up like crazy.  Other very similar stocks at much better valuation are treading water.  It's crazy!  I can neither buy nor sell!!!

It's a wild day.  We just saw a never profitable used car platform, a business with crazy pressures right now, gain more than a billion in market cap on news they swapped principal balance for PIK interest and a 10% share issuance for dilution.  The only thing the company just did was buy them time to burn a hundred million a quarter over and over, yet $CVNA is up.

I am glad I only shorted five shares as a hobby, but this is crazy.  There's at least five other companies out there with no viable path to profitability all going to nuts. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #413 on: July 20, 2023, 09:06:45 AM »
I don't recall if the term "shadow banking" was said, but it sounds like where people get loans when banks won't lend.  It becomes important to monitor the loans that are happening outside the regulated industry (which is harder to track, lacking regulation).

What are your thoughts on regional banks and shadow banking in the second half of 2023?

I'm in the ecommerce business and I can tell you there is a lot of shadow banking going on there - mostly revenue based financing. This includes big players like Amazon, Shopify, PayPal, and QuickBooks - all of whom can see your revenue coming in and take a daily/weekly/monthly piece of it to pay back a loan. In most cases since the money is coming through their platform they can make sure they get paid first.

A lot of these loans have effective interest rates of 15-25%+ because they're actually a series of micro-loans where you might have a 6-month term but you're paying back 1/6th of the loan at the end of the first month. They market it as having a fee of say 5% for a 6-month term. The non-financially savvy borrower sees that and thinks "5% interest rate, that's pretty good" or if they're a little more sophisticated they double it to get an annual rate of 10% and still think it's a reasonable deal. In reality, the blended APR is 24.5%.

There are a lot of other players in this market that base their underwriting off of being connected to your Amazon/Shopify store but they don't actually stand between you and your money so they charge even higher rates. Some of them don't realize they are offering unsecured loans and they have little or no recourse if a borrower decided to stop paying and tells them to pound sand.

Most of these were marketed to use for purchasing inventory or advertising. If you've created a machine where you put in $1 and get $2-3 out the other end (return on advertising spend) with high enough margins or customer lifetime value many companies tried to scale that as much as they could. With interest rates rising a lot of these loans no longer make sense and there will probably be a lot of marginal businesses that default. At the end of the day though this is a pretty small corner of the financial industry and some of these shadow lenders cratering would have little repercussion for the wider market.

Good businesses can still access capital, it's just gotten more expensive. Not like in 2008 where even the strongest business simply couldn't get a loan anywhere and saw existing lines of credit reduced or eliminated.

The other aspect of this is the consumer facing "buy now, pay later" loans. I could see some of those getting hit if/when the economy goes into a recession. They're in the same boat as other unsecured lenders and trying to get $100 out of a consumer that defaulted won't be cost effective.
It seems like we're in a gully of bankruptcies, with the lowest rate in decades.  Stories aiming to scare instead of inform will compare to 2022 - add in context, and the scare seems silly.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bankruptcies

Marginal consumers getting charged 25% outside the banking system does seem like a concern, though.  Then again... am I going to loan marginal consumers money at 10%?  Maybe the price fits.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #414 on: July 20, 2023, 09:18:22 AM »
I don't recall if the term "shadow banking" was said, but it sounds like where people get loans when banks won't lend.  It becomes important to monitor the loans that are happening outside the regulated industry (which is harder to track, lacking regulation).

What are your thoughts on regional banks and shadow banking in the second half of 2023?

I'm in the ecommerce business and I can tell you there is a lot of shadow banking going on there - mostly revenue based financing. This includes big players like Amazon, Shopify, PayPal, and QuickBooks - all of whom can see your revenue coming in and take a daily/weekly/monthly piece of it to pay back a loan. In most cases since the money is coming through their platform they can make sure they get paid first.

A lot of these loans have effective interest rates of 15-25%+ because they're actually a series of micro-loans where you might have a 6-month term but you're paying back 1/6th of the loan at the end of the first month. They market it as having a fee of say 5% for a 6-month term. The non-financially savvy borrower sees that and thinks "5% interest rate, that's pretty good" or if they're a little more sophisticated they double it to get an annual rate of 10% and still think it's a reasonable deal. In reality, the blended APR is 24.5%.

There are a lot of other players in this market that base their underwriting off of being connected to your Amazon/Shopify store but they don't actually stand between you and your money so they charge even higher rates. Some of them don't realize they are offering unsecured loans and they have little or no recourse if a borrower decided to stop paying and tells them to pound sand.

Most of these were marketed to use for purchasing inventory or advertising. If you've created a machine where you put in $1 and get $2-3 out the other end (return on advertising spend) with high enough margins or customer lifetime value many companies tried to scale that as much as they could. With interest rates rising a lot of these loans no longer make sense and there will probably be a lot of marginal businesses that default. At the end of the day though this is a pretty small corner of the financial industry and some of these shadow lenders cratering would have little repercussion for the wider market.

Good businesses can still access capital, it's just gotten more expensive. Not like in 2008 where even the strongest business simply couldn't get a loan anywhere and saw existing lines of credit reduced or eliminated.

The other aspect of this is the consumer facing "buy now, pay later" loans. I could see some of those getting hit if/when the economy goes into a recession. They're in the same boat as other unsecured lenders and trying to get $100 out of a consumer that defaulted won't be cost effective.
It seems like we're in a gully of bankruptcies, with the lowest rate in decades.  Stories aiming to scare instead of inform will compare to 2022 - add in context, and the scare seems silly.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bankruptcies

Marginal consumers getting charged 25% outside the banking system does seem like a concern, though.  Then again... am I going to loan marginal consumers money at 10%?  Maybe the price fits.

A lot of these borrowers are fast growing businesses and under the right circumstances borrowing at 25% can make sense if you can realize a profit of 30, 40, 50%. Ecommerce is typically very cash intensive, especially as you grow. Many ecommerce businesses import from overseas so it could be 6 months from paying the cash for inventory until it arrives in the US, gets sold, and you have the cash back in your pocket. Or if you are counting on a customer coming back multiple times to buy a consumable product and you want to grow quickly you may pay so much to acquire that customer that your first order is at a slight loss - hoping to get profitably on the second and subsequent orders.

Some of the businesses taking these loans may end up upside down and declare bankruptcy. On the other hand, some of the lenders didn't do a very good job of securing any collateral or guarantees so a business could simply not pay and there is little recourse for the lender. Not like traditional lenders who know how to make sure they can get paid back by borrowers - even if they default. For instance, most small business credit cards are actually personally guaranteed by the business owner. Any fixed loan is going to be underwritten a lot more carefully than these shadow banking lenders.

The harder it is to get money, the cheaper it will be. Any lender who approves virtually everyone is doing so because they expect a lot of defaults and are charging enough to account for that. Traditional banks can't afford many defaults so they tend to be much more careful in underwriting. Consequently, they can offer lower rates. Our business line of credit is at 9% whereas none of these merchant cash advance lenders are below 15% once you do the math.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #415 on: July 25, 2023, 08:46:50 PM »
I really regret not holding my nerve with PACWP, sigh. Oh well. I made the mental 'I'll feel worse if they go to zero' calculation, so I have to live with it.

Looks like PACW is merging with BANC (Banc of California). PACWP went from ~$17 to over $21 briefly before closing at $18.20 (up 4.3%). I'm not sure what will happen with the preferred shares in the merger. Will they get redemmed at par value of $25? Current yield is 11% so I imagine the new combined entity would like to replace that with some lower interest debt or a new issue of preferred shares.

@chasesfish any thoughts?

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #416 on: July 26, 2023, 06:59:53 AM »
PACW as a corporate entity will be the surviving corporate entity while Bac of California's management / board is taking over and they'll take the name.   This means the shares won't automatically be redeemed.

I haven't dug into the floating rate details of the PACWP shares, the redemption decision then becomes what the spread is over the index, how often it resets, and how that compares to market.  There's a bunch of new capital coming in, perhaps part of the plan is to redeem those shares, in which case they'll buy as much as they can on the market until it gets to $25 then issue a redemption.   

Regardless, the risk profile on those shares just got a lot better.

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #417 on: July 26, 2023, 03:57:25 PM »
PACW as a corporate entity will be the surviving corporate entity while Bac of California's management / board is taking over and they'll take the name.   This means the shares won't automatically be redeemed.
Hmmmm. Did the PACW name gain value for having survived a newsworthy bank run?

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #418 on: July 27, 2023, 01:11:52 PM »
PACW as a corporate entity will be the surviving corporate entity while Bac of California's management / board is taking over and they'll take the name.   This means the shares won't automatically be redeemed.
Hmmmm. Did the PACW name gain value for having survived a newsworthy bank run?

Matt Levine writes that PACW will survive as an accounting entity while Banc of CA will survive in name.

If I understand correctly, the acquiring entity can sell assets at the price of the disappearing entity under accounting regs, and accounting regs specify that the bigger bank (PACW!) is the acquirer. Thus the bank will sell assets at Banc of CA full pricing, not weak PACW pricing, to pay down expensive debt that PACW had needed to prevent further runs. In effect the merger reduced costs, rather than deriving value from PACW name - or in other words, actually gained value by removing the besmirched PACW name. Value was not gained compared to before the bank run, but some of the bank run's value damage was removed by the merger.

Text below is from second article on day linked (yesterday, as I write).
https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/35221

"PacWest
Here is the simplest story of what went wrong at US regional banks this year:

In the good times, they attracted a lot of deposits, paid 0% interest on those deposits, and invested them in long-term assets (mortgages and loans and bonds) paying 3%.
Then interest rates went up and all those assets were worth like 90 cents on the dollar at market prices.
Depositors panicked, worrying that the banks were insolvent, and took their money out, forcing the banks to sell the assets at 90 cents on the dollar, which did not raise enough money to pay back the depositors, which led to bank failure.
That story is actually a reasonably accurate description of the fall of Silicon Valley Bank, but for most regional banks the story is a bit more nuan ced, more like this:

In the good times, they attracted a lot of deposits, paid 0% interest on those deposits, and invested them in long-term assets paying 3%.
Then interest rates went up and all those assets were worth like 90 cents on the dollar at market prices.
Depositors panicked, worrying that the banks were insolvent, and took their money out, forcing the banks to borrow from the government — from the Federal Reserve’s discount window, from its new Bank Term Funding Program or from the Federal Home Loan Bank System — at like 5% interest. (They also get “hot money” from brokered deposits, also at high interest rates.)
Funding 3% loans with 0% deposits is a good business, but funding 3% loans with 5% government funding is a bad business: You lose 2% every year. So those banks are struggling to be profitable because they replaced cheap good deposit funding with expensive government funding.
That story more accurately captures the doldrums that some regional banks are in. But even there you could add some nuance. At the end of March, PacWest Bancorp had about $44 billion of assets, of which about $6.7 billion was cash earning about 4.7% interest and about $4.9 billion was available-for-sale securities held at fair value earning about 2.5% interest. And it had about $10.4 billion of FHLB and BTFP borrowings at rates of about 4.4% to 5.1%.[1] PacWest could have sold its 2.5%-yielding securities, withdrawn some of its own cash from other banks, and used the money to pay down its 5% government financing. There is no need, economically, for PacWest to replace cheap deposit funding with expensive government funding: It could just sell some stuff and pay back the government.

In fact, in the second quarter, PacWest did sell some loans and used the proceeds to pay off its FHLB advances. But it didn’t actually use its most liquid, low-yielding stuff — its cash and available-for-sale securities — to pay off that government funding; it kept its cash and securities positions roughly the same, and still has $4.9 billion of expensive BTFP funding.

Basically if you are a troubled regional bank these days, you have to borrow from the government at high rates not just to fund your long-term assets, but also to keep lots of cash around in case of a bank run. “Our cash and available liquidity remains solid and exceeded our uninsured deposits, representing 188% as of May 2, 2023,” PacWest announced in May, and that is a ratio that people care about. Uninsured deposits, at California regional banks in 2023, are notoriously flighty; if you have a lot of them, you have to manage your balance sheet as though they might all disappear at any moment. If you don’t have plenty of cash lying around to cover your uninsured deposits, then they really might flee, and then where would you be?

The point here is that restoring confidence in a bank makes it more profitable. PacWest borrows a lot of money expensively in order to keep lots of cash just in case its depositors flee; if those deposits became less flighty it could save a lot of interest expense.

The standard way to restore confidence in a mid-sized bank, these days, is for it to be bought by another bank. Being bought by JPMorgan Chase & Co. is ideal, but being bought by another mid-sized bank that has avoided negative attention is okay too. There is a list of names that bank investors worry about, and PacWest is on it, and if you get rid of that name by merging with another bank you get a bit of a confidence boost. And if you get a bit of a confidence boost, you can stop borrowing so much expensive money.

There is a technical accounting problem with being bought, though. If you are a bank in this situation:

You have assets (loans, held-to-maturity bonds, etc.) valued at $100 on your balance sheet.
The market value of those assets is more like $90, due to interest-rate moves.
If you sell those assets, you will have a $10 accounting loss, which will eat up a lot of your regulatory capital and lead to more panic.
If you sell yourself, at fair value, the acquirer will mark your assets to market, which will give you a $10 accounting loss, which will eat up a lot of regulatory capital and require the acquirer to put in extra money to keep you well capitalized. (This is the problem that JPMorgan had when it bought First Republic Bank.)
As a matter of market perception, it is good to sell yourself, because that will restore confidence. As a matter of accounting, it is bad to sell yourself, because that will cause a big mark-to-market loss and undermine confidence.

Here’s a solution:

PacWest Bancorp is being bought by smaller rival Banc of California as it seeks to navigate a bout of upheaval that brought down a handful of its peers.

The deal includes a $400 million investment from Warburg Pincus and Centerbridge Partners, which obtain about 20% of the combined company and receive warrants to buy more shares, the banks said Tuesday.

PacWest stockholders will get 0.66 of a share of Banc of California common stock for each of their shares. The banks will sell assets with the aim of repaying $13 billion of wholesale borrowings, they said.

The merger is aimed at shoring up confidence in the banks after a run on deposits struck several US regional lenders earlier this year, leading to the collapse of three California-based banks and one in New York. Rising interest rates depressed the value of bonds they bought when rates were low, and the sudden surges in customer withdrawals forced some of them to sell those assets at a loss.

PacWest is sort of being bought by Banc of California, but also sort of not. From the press release:

The combined holding company and bank will operate under the Banc of California name and brand following closing of the transaction. Under the terms of the merger agreement, PacWest stockholders will receive 0.6569 of a share of Banc of California common stock for each share of PacWest common stock. …

Banc of California will be the legal acquirer, and Banc of California N.A. will merge with and into Pacific Western Bank, which will take the Banc of California name and apply to become a Federal Reserve member. PacWest will be the accounting acquirer, with fair value accounting applied to Banc of California’s balance sheet at closing.

Banc of California — relatively unscathed by this year’s troubles — is the legal acquirer, and keeping its name. PacWest — which has been in the news a lot — will disappear. But PacWest, as the larger bank, is the accounting acquirer, meaning that Banc of California’s relatively clean balance sheet gets marked to market, while PacWest gets to avoid marking down its assets.

Also:

The combined company will repay ~$13 billion in wholesale borrowings, funded by sales of assets which are fully marked as a result of the transaction, and excess cash. Banc of California, N.A. has entered into a $3.5 billion interest rate swap and a contingent forward asset sale agreement to hedge interest rate risk and lock in proceeds. These repositioning transactions for the combined company will result in a higher net interest margin, estimated to add over 170bps compared to the pre-restructured balance sheet. The actions result in a CET1 of 10%+ pro forma, which includes the cost of swaps purchased and forward sales.

Following closing and the asset sales, the combined company is expected to have approximately $36.1 billion in assets, $25.3 billion in total loans, $30.5 billion in total deposits and more than 70 branches in California.

The key point there is that these two banks have a total of $13 billion of expensive wholesale funding (government programs, brokered deposits, etc.) that they can pay down in part by selling Banc of California assets and in part by using their existing cash. If you combine two banks, they are safer and more stable than they would be separately, which means that they need to keep less cash lying around, which means they can use that cash to pay back some of their expensive borrowing. PacWest is a $38 billion bank; Banc of California is about a $9 billion bank; together they will be a $36 billion bank: Combining them allows them to shrink. From the investor presentation:


The other point is that Warburg and Centerbridge are putting in $400 million for about 19% of the combined company (plus warrants). One way to restore confidence in a beaten-down regional bank is to merge it with another bank, but another way is just to raise a bunch of equity: If depositors are worried that your assets are secretly worth less than your liabilities, raising a bunch of cash from equity investors should reassure them. The problem with this is that the regional bank equity market seized up a bit in March, when Silicon Valley Bank announced a stock offering that led directly to its failure: Raising equity can shore up confidence in a bank and prevent a run on deposits, but trying to raise equity can undermine confidence and cause a run on deposits. You can’t announce a stock sale first and then try to do it; you have to do it first and then announce it."
« Last Edit: July 27, 2023, 01:20:06 PM by BicycleB »

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #419 on: July 31, 2023, 11:56:04 AM »
The 4th bank closure of 2023 was Heartland Tri-State Bank in Kansas, a very small $139M community bank.
https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2023/07/bank-closed-in-southwestern-kansas/

RobertFromTX

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #420 on: July 31, 2023, 07:32:24 PM »
The 4th bank closure of 2023 was Heartland Tri-State Bank in Kansas, a very small $139M community bank.
https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2023/07/bank-closed-in-southwestern-kansas/
I don't want to make accusations as I don't know the details, but many times when these tiny banks fail its because of fraudulent loan activity by management/insiders.

This one from 2019 was a pretty wild story: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/banking/2019/07/20/fire-and-fraud-the-mystery-of-a-small-texas-bank-that-became-the-nation-s-first-failure-in-years/



chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #421 on: August 01, 2023, 06:43:33 PM »
The rumblings from people who would know is this closure involved handcuffs

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #422 on: August 04, 2023, 01:50:38 PM »
My last little bank $SLBK reported earnings after the close yesterday.  I got rewarded with a nearly 10% gain as they close the gap to book value.  Now around 93% of tangible book for a well run bank.

Rates going up are going to help these 100 year old community banks.   $SLBK is earning a 3.8% net interest margin, well reserved against problem loans, and has $6 or so in book equity per share they'll earn back out of their bond portfolio over the next four years.  Also get paid 4% along the way in the dividend and a net share repurchaser 

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #423 on: August 07, 2023, 12:03:34 PM »
Is it safe to say "the dip" is over? XLF is now within spitting distance of where it was in early March. The safer end of preferred shares like MTB-H and BAC-K and JPM-L are now back in the 6% range, just slightly over the Federal Funds Rate.

I'm wondering if now is a good time to exit concentrations in a sector that is very recession-vulnerable. Nonetheless...

----------------

PACW has resumed paying a penny per share dividend on the common, but their $0.4845 dividend on PACWP would be 9.34% annualized at today's price. These sort of things tempt me. The ex-div date is August 15. I don't see PACWP being called away for 20% more than market price after the merger with BANC.

BANC's all-stock offer involves each PACW shareholder receiving 0.6569 shares of BANC, which are currently $13.82. Doing the math, that implies a PACW share is worth about $9.08 right now, 1.7% more than the market price. That's not enough upside for me to chase, but I did note that PACW has about 21% short interest. With close to penny-for-penny leverage, an improvement in the fortunes of BANC, PACW, or the banking sector as a whole could set off a short squeeze. And, by the way, BANC has a book value of $16.67 according to Yahoo Finance. In early March BANC shares were trading for more than $17.50 and back then the Fed programs weren't yet available, so a squeeze could happen.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #424 on: August 07, 2023, 03:30:19 PM »
The short answer is yes, exit an overweight position.

My long answer:   There's still some value out there, I think BAC and some community banks sitting on large OCI losses from bond marks are still a bit depressed on valuations.  MBSs are still paying down, there are still home transactions, and those losses are shrinking a bit faster and being reinvested at new yields faster than is priced into the stocks.

But yes, BAC at $32 isn't as attractive as $28.   You have to go down in bank size to get any value in the prefs and outside of FHN-F, the coupons are higher and they'll be called away without the convexity, so you might as well be in long dated bonds if that's your bet. 

I've been a net seller over the past month.

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #425 on: August 08, 2023, 07:57:29 AM »
The Moody’s mass-downgrade of bank stocks caught me by surprise, but didn’t cost me because I’m not in bank stocks other than a couple of very small hedged SPY positions.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/08/moodys-cuts-ratings-of-10-us-banks-and-puts-some-big-names-on-downgrade-watch.html

Their reasoning sounds like what we were discussing here in April and May: fast rising rates devaluing assets, rising costs of deposits, deposit flight, CRE portfolio losses, and a looming recession.

So the question is: Did Moody’s just finish editing and approving something written three months ago, or was the stock market premature in thinking the BTFP solved all the banks’ existential problems? Perhaps Moody’s point is that the BTFP cannot make banks profitable when the interest rate on offer is at the peak of the yield curve.

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #426 on: August 08, 2023, 08:17:32 AM »
I was interested enough to sign up for a free Moody's account. Unfortunately, the free account does not receive access to their overall report on the banking sector, but I gleamed the following few paragraphs on the macro picture from yesterday's note about US Bankcorp being on review for a downgrade:
Quote
...there has been a decline in the stability of US banks' deposit funding as reflected in Moody's 21 April 2023 lowering of the US macro profile, a key input in bank ratings, from very strong - to strong +.  US banks' Q2 earnings showed material increases in funding costs as well as profitability pressures related to the significant and rapid tightening in monetary policy and inverted Treasury curve, which will continue to lower profitability and implies a weaker ability to generate capital internally. Some banks have reduced loan growth, which preserves capital but also slows the shift in their loan mix toward higher yielding assets, even as their funding costs rise, which weighs on profitability. Higher interest rates continue to reduce the value of US banks' fixed rate securities and loans and interest rate risk is not captured well in US bank regulation and thus can create liquidity risks. Though Moody's expects US banks will continue to benefit from Federal Reserve liquidity backstops and Federal Home Loan Bank system funding, these funding sources require collateral, come at a greater cost than deposits and can have shorter duration than core deposits. Banks that depend on more concentrated or higher levels of uninsured deposits are more exposed to these pressures, especially banks with high levels of fixed rate securities and loans. 

The rating agency also noted that most US banks are subject to lower regulatory capital requirements than the largest US banks. In the current environment, this leaves some US banks, especially those with sizable economic losses due to higher interest rates that are not reflected in their regulatory capital ratios, less resilient and more vulnerable to a loss of investor confidence, which is credit negative for these institutions. In addition, given their smaller capital buffers and systemwide deposit pressures, these banks could become significantly more reliant on higher cost deposits and wholesale borrowing in order to avoid the forced sale of fixed rate securities or loans.

Although increases in regulatory capital requirements have been proposed for banks with assets above $100 billion, a long-term credit positive, in the near term it would come with increased costs and entail business model adaptation. The proposed regulations would afford banks time to transition to higher capital levels, but may also eventually result in asset sales, M&A and other strategic actions that put profitability and franchise strains on a number of banks.

With Moody's Investors Service's baseline macroeconomic outlook remaining for a US recession in late 2023/early 2024, the level and quality of banks' capital will be key to their ability to withstand downside asset risks as well as absorb the costs of business model adaptation.

Finally, Moody's believes small and mid-size banks that have greater exposures to commercial real estate lending, especially construction and office lending, face higher risks because of high interest rates, a significant slowdown in US economic growth and reduced demand for office space driven by work-from-home trends. These forces are likely to result in deteriorating loan asset quality in certain commercial real estate sectors, further pressuring the credit profiles of banks with more significant exposures to those sectors.

Collectively, these three developments have lowered the credit profile of a number of US banks, though not all banks equally.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-reviews-US-Bancorp-for-downgrade-senior-unsecured-at-A3-Rating-Action--PR_479189

Michael in ABQ

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #427 on: August 08, 2023, 11:41:13 AM »
Right now I've got a small portfolio with 1/4 BOHPRA 1/4 OZKAP and 1/2 PACWP. My yields are about 8% on the first two and almost 15% on the latter as I bought them a couple of months ago when prices dropped.

I've got some cash sitting in that account equivalent to about 1/3 of my portfolio and I'm trying to decide if I should even out my portfolio to be split evenly across those three or double down on PACWP which still has a yield over 9% (or add a 4th preferred stock). I like the idea of having a portfolio of preferred stocks that will continue to yield an average of 9%+ even after interest rates drop in a year or two.


These are just about my only taxable investments and it's about 1% of my net worth so really just enough money to let me play around with but with no risk of derailing my long term plans.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #428 on: August 08, 2023, 02:14:26 PM »
I haven't read the Moody's downgrade, but the headlines sound like a lot of what we talked about. 

Long term, modestly higher rates are better for banks.

Shorter term (1-3 years), it can be a bumpy adjustment.

I'm happy to see the 5yr treasury stop threatening 4.5%   I stand by my thoughts that CRE gets stressful at a 4.5% or higher 5yrT

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #429 on: August 08, 2023, 03:58:39 PM »
I'm happy to see the 5yr treasury stop threatening 4.5%   I stand by my thoughts that CRE gets stressful at a 4.5% or higher 5yrT
I'm watching the 10y, 20y, and 30y rates rising though. The latest "consensus" that we'll have a soft landing contradicts expectations for imminent rate cuts. If the long end of the curve starts rising, we could see residential mortgages breach 7%, then 7.5%... and at some point on that path residential becomes a problem.

Maybe long-duration investors can only be scared into accepting lower returns to a limit, and we've reached that limit, with the 10y3m spread range-bound in the historically extreme -1.5% to -1.9% range since April. Spreads like the 10y2y seem like a barometer of expectations for imminent rate cuts. It became less negative during the banking turmoil and then returned to deep inversion.

In past recessions the yield curve un-inverted right before the recession or as the recession started, and this was due to rate cuts on the short end of the curve. It would be an unusual situation if the yield curve un-inverted due to the long end rising instead of the short end falling.

Markets certainly aren't expecting this, with 5y inflation expectations at 2.24% and the CME FedWatch Tool showing expectations for more aggressive rate cuts next year than markets were predicting last month. But I have to wonder what happens if sentiment shifts and people start accepting 5%+ as the new normal during the next couple years of soft landing. Maybe billionaire investor Bill Ackman is thinking correctly by shorting 30y treasuries? Believe it or not, that's a bet on a soft landing.

And if 5% will become the new normal 10y rate, are stocks are overpriced at a "soft landing" forward PE of 19.2 (earnings yield = 5.2%)?   

Weathering

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #430 on: August 08, 2023, 10:04:52 PM »
I know that KEY was already on negative watch for a credit downgrade. Maybe that is why HBAN and Citizens were mentioned by Moody’s but not KEY. The bond market thinks (based on bond prices) KEY is the most risky of the #10 through #20 largest banks. HBAN is lower risk and CFG is slightly lower risk than KEY. My large purchase of TFC subordinate bonds has done ok, but not great. I bought at a 6.8% yield and now I could sell for a 6.4% yield. But I’m not planning to sell - I’ll hold to maturity in 2026. Despite all the chatter about Credit Suisse bonds not being paid, I have $1k of a 2027 CS senior unsecured bond that continues to pay $17 quarterly.

I’m going to be selling some Dec 2021 series I savings bonds in early September and plan to put the proceeds toward long term, highly-rated corporate bonds (either bank bonds or utility company bonds). Hoping to get >7% with a high level of security. That isn’t possible currently, but long term bond prices are trending toward it being possible by year end.

Agency bonds have some good new offers currently. 6.29% federal farm or federal home, first callable in August 2024.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #431 on: August 09, 2023, 05:42:24 AM »
@ChpBstrd We should know soon about the long end of the curve, the treasury is going to dumb a bunch of supply on the long end of the curve on to the market over the next few months

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #432 on: August 22, 2023, 11:59:50 AM »
Alright bank sharks, with Moodys and the S&P downgrades and bank stocks dropping again - is this another buying opportunity or are we going to see more bank failures???  Thoughts?

reeshau

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #433 on: August 22, 2023, 12:22:41 PM »
To the extent S&P downgraded 5 banks (and the others were a couple handfuls) but they are all down--yes, it should be an opportunity.

Yes, there is danger still.  Commercial Real Estate will diverge, for those with offices, perhaps with multifamily, vs. retail and hospitality.

A Fed-induced recession would make everyone unhappy.

But there is diversity in the banks: their investment portfolios, the health of real estate / employment / growth in their operating regions, deposit rates, etc.

WAL is down to 9% above tangible book value.  I guess I should be happy that it isn't all the way down, as it isn't its close neighbors under the gun now.

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #434 on: August 22, 2023, 01:38:07 PM »
I'm happy to see the 5yr treasury stop threatening 4.5%   I stand by my thoughts that CRE gets stressful at a 4.5% or higher 5yrT
I'm watching the 10y, 20y, and 30y rates rising though. The latest "consensus" that we'll have a soft landing contradicts expectations for imminent rate cuts. If the long end of the curve starts rising, we could see residential mortgages breach 7%, then 7.5%... and at some point on that path residential becomes a problem.
It's 2 weeks later and the 5y treasury is just a few basis points from 4.5% while 30y mortgages are almost 7.4%. In just 5 months, the 10y yield has increased by about 91bp, and that has to be doing some new damage to bank balance sheets.

One can now obtain yields greater than 7% from BAC-E, NYCB-A, RF-C, BOH-A, FHN-D, and PFF! Yes, the banks can make depositors whole with BTFP loans, but the cost of those loans is rising. Meanwhile rising mortgage rates are calling into question any existing portfolios of residential or CRE loans. The slowdown in RE transactions leave banks with fewer opportunities to replace old low-rate loans with new higher-rate loans. Thus, bank failures from here on might be more a result of accumulated losses rather than bank runs.

We need to think about what it means for RE transactions and the mortgage industry if markets are losing faith that interest rates will be cut very soon. I.e. would you take on a 7.5% or 8% mortgage at today's home prices if you believed you might never get an opportunity to refinance? Everyone I've heard of who is taking on a 6% or higher mortgage is prioritizing early payoff of that mortgage, and corporate/CRE debt now costs more than many companies' ROA, so they'll be paying things off early too. It will be harder than expected for banks to get a grip on any duration at these higher rates or hold onto cheap deposits while their customers are deleveraging, but their cost of capital is still going up.

Overall, financial services is a very unattractive industry right now, and we could see more bank failures soon IMO.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #435 on: August 22, 2023, 02:33:09 PM »
4.44% on the 5yrT right now.   Getting stress(y)

I don't see any bank commons attractive enough to invest in right now, especially since all my less than liquid microcaps returned to reasonable valuations.  Not overly expensive, but not as cheap as they can get if we get some distress.

I still expect this to be a slow plod along with mediocre returns.   There's so much debt that's fixed for so long, we don't have some event to stress everything.    Total bank credit is flattish from March through July now and total deposits stopped declining in April.   It's not a bank run story anymore, but it is a question of what will equity returns be as every institution works through losses getting back to normal to begin with then figuring out how elevated they get. 

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #436 on: August 25, 2023, 08:23:17 AM »
Interesting update today.

$SMMF announced a "merger of equals" with a crappy bank in Northern Virginia.   They're basically selling the bank for no premium.  I'm pretty upset and dumbfounded, but I should also just take my 20%+ in six months and move on.

The fun of small cap bank investing.

daverobev

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #437 on: August 25, 2023, 10:49:45 AM »
At what point does BOH-PA get interesting again..? Roughly 7.4% yield now ("don't chase yield!").

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #438 on: August 25, 2023, 11:29:24 AM »
Interesting update today.

$SMMF announced a "merger of equals" with a crappy bank in Northern Virginia.   They're basically selling the bank for no premium.  I'm pretty upset and dumbfounded, but I should also just take my 20%+ in six months and move on.

The fun of small cap bank investing.
My first thought was "what do they know about their loan portfolio that we don't know" and my second thought was "well of course the executives are selling at a mere 5.88% premium because they'll all be getting raises as executives of a larger bank"

At what point does BOH-PA get interesting again..? Roughly 7.4% yield now ("don't chase yield!").
I checked the streets for blood today and saw none, so I think it is too early. My buy point for financial panic is when the yield on either PFF or PGF hits 7.5%, as it did in May 2020.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #439 on: August 26, 2023, 04:43:12 AM »
At what point does BOH-PA get interesting again..? Roughly 7.4% yield now ("don't chase yield!").

It's less interesting to me today.   Some small percentage of their portfolio is going to get classified due to Maui and a 5yr approaching 4.5% hits their bond marks more.

They'll still survive, insurance money will increase non interest bearing deposits, but I'd want 8.5% or more.   FHN-F is at 7.81% today for lower risk.  KEY, albiet with problems, has significantly more size / scale providing it the likelyhood of being merged vs. failing is at 7.64%.   I bought a few more shares of FHN-F under $15 and put a sell order in for those shares at $16.  Yield if it doesn't trade, small gain + yield if it does.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2023, 04:53:07 AM by chasesfish »

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #440 on: August 26, 2023, 04:46:54 AM »
Interesting update today.

$SMMF announced a "merger of equals" with a crappy bank in Northern Virginia.   They're basically selling the bank for no premium.  I'm pretty upset and dumbfounded, but I should also just take my 20%+ in six months and move on.

The fun of small cap bank investing.
My first thought was "what do they know about their loan portfolio that we don't know" and my second thought was "well of course the executives are selling at a mere 5.88% premium because they'll all be getting raises as executives of a larger bank"


It looks like a "I'm done" sale.   Apparently $SMMF had a 9% investment from a private equity fund that was winding down, that applies some pressure to merger or sell so the fund can sell down their position.   This seems like a negotiated deal between the execs and the PE fund to merge them into an entity creating a ton more float while all of them get cushy jobs.   I emailed investor relations and asked for a copy of the fairness opinion and a detailing of the other offers they received in marketing the bank.  I'll be ignored, I could choose to get pissed off or just take my 26% in eight months and be done.   Still frustrating to see something I think is worth $30 taken from me at just under $25, with all the alpha going into the employment deals executives got.

The bank they're merging with is an old line deposit franchise that's otherwise a disaster of a bank.   Classic case similar to BOH or FFIN, management gets to the top of a great deposit franchise and realize they can keep their jobs by not taking credit risk, investing those deposits in bonds, and clipping coupons.  It works great until interest rates triple.   That bank can throw every mistake of the last four years into "merger related charges" and mark their messy balance sheet full of unrealized losses.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #441 on: August 26, 2023, 12:35:09 PM »
Interesting update today.

$SMMF announced a "merger of equals" with a crappy bank in Northern Virginia.   They're basically selling the bank for no premium.  I'm pretty upset and dumbfounded, but I should also just take my 20%+ in six months and move on.

The fun of small cap bank investing.
My first thought was "what do they know about their loan portfolio that we don't know" and my second thought was "well of course the executives are selling at a mere 5.88% premium because they'll all be getting raises as executives of a larger bank"


It looks like a "I'm done" sale.   Apparently $SMMF had a 9% investment from a private equity fund that was winding down, that applies some pressure to merger or sell so the fund can sell down their position.   This seems like a negotiated deal between the execs and the PE fund to merge them into an entity creating a ton more float while all of them get cushy jobs.   I emailed investor relations and asked for a copy of the fairness opinion and a detailing of the other offers they received in marketing the bank.  I'll be ignored, I could choose to get pissed off or just take my 26% in eight months and be done.   Still frustrating to see something I think is worth $30 taken from me at just under $25, with all the alpha going into the employment deals executives got.

The bank they're merging with is an old line deposit franchise that's otherwise a disaster of a bank.   Classic case similar to BOH or FFIN, management gets to the top of a great deposit franchise and realize they can keep their jobs by not taking credit risk, investing those deposits in bonds, and clipping coupons.  It works great until interest rates triple.   That bank can throw every mistake of the last four years into "merger related charges" and mark their messy balance sheet full of unrealized losses.

It's this kind of insight gained from years of industry knowledge which further reinforces why I don't try to pick individual stocks. There are way more people out there with far deeper knowledge that I can never hope to replicate across multiple industries and individual companies.

I'm happy with my small position of preferred regional bank stocks that yield 11% but the other 99% of my money is going to stick with index funds. I may not beat the market but I can at least match it.

Weathering

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #442 on: August 26, 2023, 08:19:44 PM »
Funny story. My HSA investment account had just enough in the 0% interest settlement fund (TDameritrade) for 1 share of BOH-A if I could get it at a limit price of $14.61. I set the limit order and later yesterday it hit. I am now the proud owner of a single share of BOH-A.

Otherwise, I’ve been accumulating more bank bonds (e.g., RBC 2026 at 6.3% YTM) but my allocation for short-term bonds (maturing 2024-2027) is full. So, I’m trying to find longer duration bonds, at attractive YTM, to fill the 2030+ allocation next.

I’ll ask this here, even though this company isn’t a consumer bank (it’s an investment bank): What is wrong with Jefferies (ticker symbol JEF)? Their bonds are rated BBB/BAA2 yet they trade like BBB- or worse. Also, their bonds have a huge bid/ask spread. I take that to mean the bond brokers don’t want to carry more JEF debt than they already have on their books or there is something about JEF scaring them. I have 1/5 of 1% of my bond portfolio in JEF debt and hesitate to add any more until I understand why their bonds behave the way I described.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #443 on: August 27, 2023, 07:17:13 AM »
@Michael in ABQ - It reinforces this point for me:   Only play in bank stocks when they are abnormally cheap.   So many things can happen above book value.

People who bought $SMMF in 2018 were buying a well run bank, yet they just held the bag for five years collecting a dividend only and now management merges the bank away with no premium. 

reeshau

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #444 on: August 27, 2023, 12:47:10 PM »
If the buyout is that bad, are they going to have problems with passing a shareholder vote?  I see 12% insider holdings, but only 37% institutional.  With that level, they may have to stump for votes just to get a quorum.

Seems like a ripe target for an activist to stump for more.

Shareholder votes are viewed, and often are, rubber stamps.  But I have been witness to a few that turned quite dramatic.  Often, it's the perception that the deal is good for management, rather than shareholders, that touch them off.

I'm not saying that I am looking to jump in on the chance some kind of agitation happens.  It just seems to me like there are plenty of eyes here, and an "easy arbitrage" would have a hard time sneaking through.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #445 on: August 27, 2023, 01:27:30 PM »
@reeshau It would require an uprising of retail shareholders in the bank's hometown.

The board has all agreed to vote their shares and there's one institutional holder of 9.9% that is on board.  Personally I don't think there's enough juice in another 20% for an activist to get involved, they're busy with bank opportunities that are a double or more if they can get management to make some basic changes.  I'm invested in one of those fights right now, $ASRV

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #446 on: August 27, 2023, 02:30:34 PM »
I noticed that within hours of the notice that SMFF was merging, the class action lawyers were issuing press releases saying to contact them if you owned the stock. @chasesfish you probably don't have enough at stake to be too pissed off about it, and you did after all make a profit, but this is an option for you. Chances are the lawsuit gets dismissed, but there are some odds that you could get a few hundred in a settlement. It would be a learning experience most of all. I've always wondered where these end up.

If you know this much about the deal, imagine what kind of incriminating info and narratives the lawyers could dig up!

I’ll ask this here, even though this company isn’t a consumer bank (it’s an investment bank): What is wrong with Jefferies (ticker symbol JEF)?

The culprit is leverage. JEF's most recent assets were $55.23B and liabilities were $44.937B, meaning the company is >81% debt in a world of rising interest rates. Also it looks as if net income is rapidly heading toward zero and they've had at least a year of negative free cash flows. I haven't dug in but I wonder if they could be in a situation like Schwab, with lots of bonds on the books that lost value.

chasesfish

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #447 on: August 27, 2023, 03:37:29 PM »
Where are you seeing the class action notices on SMMF?  I expected the bank to be too small to get any attention.

I don't have an opinion on $JEF.   Hard to understand the investment banks.

RobertFromTX

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #448 on: August 27, 2023, 05:07:10 PM »
Those are merely advertisements by the lawyers, hoping they can dupe some shareholder in to letting them shakedown the bank. The auto-generated news aggregators echo them (like google finance, yahoo finance, etc). I saw the same kind of advertisements when our bank went up for sale and nothing came of it.

ChpBstrd

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Re: buy bank stocks on the dip
« Reply #449 on: August 28, 2023, 09:03:43 AM »