Ok. I'll admit I don't have a perfect plan and I may kick myself later. I'm going to try and clarify a few things here though and explain my own personal situation so that maybe you understand my perspective.
My situation:
32yrs old - roughly 600k investment portfolio. Right now, 40k into the market, 110k cash, 450k tied up in short term (less than a year) hard money loans to real estate investors at 12%. As the housing market has come back, there are less distressed properties for investors to grab and flip and for me to loan on. This has been causing more and more cash to return to me lately as the investors sell the flips and can't find more deals . I should have 200k cash in the near term with no more hard money lending prospects. This is why I am in a bit of a jam. It seems nuts to average into the market right now. The only opportunity that I can see right now is the energy sector.
Regarding my strategy:
When I say never sell, I mean whatever I have in the market will stay in the market. If I've bought VTI, I will never sell it. If, on the other hand, I am buying sector ETFs in an over-valued market like this one, I will reallocate to other sectors periodically. For example, if I am holding the energy sector ETF right now and it climbs into an over-valued range, I would consider selling that ETF and buying a different, under-valued sector ETF with the proceeds. If there isn't an under-valued sector, I stay put with what I have in the market and accumulate any cash I am able to save until a sector becomes under-valued and then use the cash to buy that sector. If I am holding sector ETFs and the market as a whole becomes under-valued, I will sell the sector ETFs and buy VTI. Basically re-balancing once or twice a year, but not going to cash. As I save, I will deploy new money in the same way. It's just very hard for me to average a large cash position into this market without thinking I am hurting my future returns badly. The only thing I can think of is averaging into the market for the next 10 years to smooth it out, which I really don't want to do.
Seriously, what would any of you guys do? I'm open to suggestions.