Author Topic: Buckle up folks  (Read 190654 times)

FIRE47

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Buckle up folks
« on: February 11, 2016, 05:52:57 AM »
This looks like panic has firmly set in. Too bad I finally pulled the trigger on about half my dw and my built up cash just yesterday. The way she goes I guess could have been worse and gone in in oct or nov or any time last year I suppose at this point. Looks like it's gonna be an ugly one again today.


GrowingTheGreen

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2016, 07:35:40 AM »
No biggie if it's ugly today, tomorrow, or next week. On the scale of years, we'll all be sitting in the shade of trees we planted today.

FIRE47

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2016, 07:55:19 AM »
No biggie if it's ugly today, tomorrow, or next week. On the scale of years, we'll all be sitting in the shade of trees we planted today.

I like to hope so - its getting tough to stay positive for me as I've been getting hammered given my Canadian and International holdings are 2/3 of my portfolio so this has been going on for the better part of a year at this point - firmly in the grip of a brutal bear market. At least I'm only 4 years in but losing 20k sucks no matter where you are in your journey.

To make matters worse the economy in general is starting to get a little shaky here at this point.

mrpercentage

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2016, 08:27:14 AM »
This is why I like dividend paying stocks of companies I know.  A day like today makes me want to sell mutual funds and indexes but I wouldn't dare touch Exxon, reality income, or my utility. No way, not even Conoco. It's a rocket and it will blow up on the ground or launch into space. Long count down beginning.

Ground control to Major Tom

acroy

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2016, 08:30:29 AM »
For those of us still saving - keep on shovelling it in.
Dollar-cost averaging, baby!
I need one good 01/09-style bust & recover to hit ER. whooo!!

exmmmer

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2016, 08:39:13 AM »
on a positive note, Gold is once again on the rise and I have only, oh, about $400/oz to recover my losses!

Kaspian

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2016, 08:57:02 AM »
"You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy. It's that simple. … They're pretty fearful. In fact, in my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are right now. "
- Warren Buffett, 2008.

I say--bring it again!  It will be entertaining to see the little boys scatter, take up their toys, and go home.  Somebody else wrote on these forums something about "in a bear market money returns to its rightful owners".  Historically, I think 2013-now will go down as just another blip of extreme market silliness.  Just another buy-high/sell-low routine of the common investor.  Something was definitely wrong when Mila Kunis appeared on TV giving investing advice. 

rugorak

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2016, 09:39:34 AM »
It is annoying though that the US economy as a whole is doing well. There are some weak spots but they are not huge. Herd mentality is just going nuts.  People are working, wages are finally going up, and there is even indications that people are quitting (and not the FI sort of quit). But oil is cheap and too many investors have it in their mind that it means there is huge weakness instead of just a huge glut of oil. My hope is OPEC will realize they are just screwing themselves over sometime this year, prices will start going up, and investors will realize they were dumb. And all of us who just stayed the course will be laughing all the way to the bank.

tj

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2016, 09:51:56 AM »
It is annoying though that the US economy as a whole is doing well. There are some weak spots but they are not huge. Herd mentality is just going nuts.  People are working, wages are finally going up, and there is even indications that people are quitting (and not the FI sort of quit). But oil is cheap and too many investors have it in their mind that it means there is huge weakness instead of just a huge glut of oil. My hope is OPEC will realize they are just screwing themselves over sometime this year, prices will start going up, and investors will realize they were dumb. And all of us who just stayed the course will be laughing all the way to the bank.

+1. Bought more today....wish I had more $$$ to pump in...

Cougar

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2016, 10:18:45 AM »
This is why I like dividend paying stocks of companies I know.  A day like today makes me want to sell mutual funds and indexes but I wouldn't dare touch Exxon, reality income, or my utility. No way, not even Conoco. It's a rocket and it will blow up on the ground or launch into space. Long count down beginning.

Ground control to Major Tom

Yes, but what if exxon cuts it's dividend; anadarko just cut theirs 80%; then you have a stock that has lost value and your dividend has lost value. there is no way exxon isnt going to be the only oil company not cutting dividend if the oil market stays down.

i realize that exxon and anadarko are not in the same league; but unless oil rockets back up in price, which is not going to happen for years unless WW3 breaks out; it's a possibility; just something to think about.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2016, 10:33:01 AM »
No biggie if it's ugly today, tomorrow, or next week. On the scale of years, we'll all be sitting in the shade of trees we planted today.

I like to hope so - its getting tough to stay positive for me as I've been getting hammered given my Canadian and International holdings are 2/3 of my portfolio so this has been going on for the better part of a year at this point - firmly in the grip of a brutal bear market. At least I'm only 4 years in but losing 20k sucks no matter where you are in your journey.

To make matters worse the economy in general is starting to get a little shaky here at this point.

20k is nothing, a few months at a decent paying job. I guess I "lost" around that amount or more, but I only "lost" a number in mint. I didn't take a "loss" of anything real.

This forum is all about the downturns and staying the course. To hear so many people panic here is disheartening...

Buying in myself... but I do that anyway... up or down..

Jack

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2016, 10:36:10 AM »
And all of us who just stayed the course will be laughing all the way to the bank.

+1. Bought more today....wish I had more $$$ to pump in...

Yep. Throw your hands in the air and yell WEEEEEEE!!!!




Tyler

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2016, 10:53:35 AM »
Times like this are great for reevaluating your risk tolerance.  It's easy to take risk when it works in your favor, but when the tough times roll around it can change your tune.  I wouldn't change anything while emotions are high, but taking notes on your reactions can help you eventually make a good choice for a long term portfolio for the future. 

protostache

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2016, 11:06:54 AM »
This is why I like dividend paying stocks of companies I know.  A day like today makes me want to sell mutual funds and indexes but I wouldn't dare touch Exxon, reality income, or my utility. No way, not even Conoco. It's a rocket and it will blow up on the ground or launch into space. Long count down beginning.

Ground control to Major Tom

Yes, but what if exxon cuts it's dividend; anadarko just cut theirs 80%; then you have a stock that has lost value and your dividend has lost value. there is no way exxon isnt going to be the only oil company not cutting dividend if the oil market stays down.

i realize that exxon and anadarko are not in the same league; but unless oil rockets back up in price, which is not going to happen for years unless WW3 breaks out; it's a possibility; just something to think about.

"Not in the same league" is a bit of an understatement. Exxon has $4bil in cash and a $3bil per quarter dividend expense. They could go an entire quarter with zero revenue and still pay their dividend and their employees without any additional financing. If you want to count receivables and inventory, they have $51bil in current assets, compared to Anadarko's $5bil.

plainjane

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2016, 11:32:04 AM »
No biggie if it's ugly today, tomorrow, or next week. On the scale of years, we'll all be sitting in the shade of trees we planted today.

Put in a small bit of money this morning (not at the lowest, not at the highest). 

Shared this quote with the SO, and got the following reply.  "I haven't planted enough trees! The ground is very hard today also."

FIRE47

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2016, 11:46:00 AM »
No biggie if it's ugly today, tomorrow, or next week. On the scale of years, we'll all be sitting in the shade of trees we planted today.

I like to hope so - its getting tough to stay positive for me as I've been getting hammered given my Canadian and International holdings are 2/3 of my portfolio so this has been going on for the better part of a year at this point - firmly in the grip of a brutal bear market. At least I'm only 4 years in but losing 20k sucks no matter where you are in your journey.

To make matters worse the economy in general is starting to get a little shaky here at this point.

20k is nothing, a few months at a decent paying job. I guess I "lost" around that amount or more, but I only "lost" a number in mint. I didn't take a "loss" of anything real.

This forum is all about the downturns and staying the course. To hear so many people panic here is disheartening...

Buying in myself... but I do that anyway... up or down..

Well it is something - it's about 4-5 months of savings for us by the time we get our net pay and pay our expenses. Regardless it's basically as if I have been running on a treadmill the last 5 months or so fighting the falling markets with no progress to show whatsoever. I remember thinking wow I'm almost a year early on my goal for my birthday in 2016 - nope. Will be just about on time if I don't plummet past them at this rate.

To clarify most of my portfolio is in areas that are down 20-30% at this point and I have not seen gains other than bouncing around in probably 1-2 years - it is getting a bit disheartening that's all.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 11:51:23 AM by FIRE47 »

zz_marcello

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2016, 12:10:31 PM »
Well it is something - it's about 4-5 months of savings for us by the time we get our net pay and pay our expenses. Regardless it's basically as if I have been running on a treadmill the last 5 months or so fighting the falling markets with no progress to show whatsoever. I remember thinking wow I'm almost a year early on my goal for my birthday in 2016 - nope. Will be just about on time if I don't plummet past them at this rate.

To clarify most of my portfolio is in areas that are down 20-30% at this point and I have not seen gains other than bouncing around in probably 1-2 years - it is getting a bit disheartening that's all.

For someone that retired in 2007 or 2000 with a 100% stocks portfolio saw a decline in valuations of ~50% which would be according to the 25 times life expenses rule about 12,5 years. That means "a few months of life expenses" fluctuations means nothing for retires that are holding significant amounts of net worth in stocks. I don't say that to discourage you but to put things in perspective. I personally would not be happy with 100% stocks because of that (especially together with today's high market valuations ( :-) ... already forum word of the month....) so I embrace some diversification.

All the best!
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 12:12:23 PM by zz_marcello »

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2016, 12:31:15 PM »
No biggie if it's ugly today, tomorrow, or next week. On the scale of years, we'll all be sitting in the shade of trees we planted today.

I like to hope so - its getting tough to stay positive for me as I've been getting hammered given my Canadian and International holdings are 2/3 of my portfolio so this has been going on for the better part of a year at this point - firmly in the grip of a brutal bear market. At least I'm only 4 years in but losing 20k sucks no matter where you are in your journey.

To make matters worse the economy in general is starting to get a little shaky here at this point.

20k is nothing, a few months at a decent paying job. I guess I "lost" around that amount or more, but I only "lost" a number in mint. I didn't take a "loss" of anything real.

This forum is all about the downturns and staying the course. To hear so many people panic here is disheartening...

Buying in myself... but I do that anyway... up or down..

Well it is something - it's about 4-5 months of savings for us by the time we get our net pay and pay our expenses. Regardless it's basically as if I have been running on a treadmill the last 5 months or so fighting the falling markets with no progress to show whatsoever. I remember thinking wow I'm almost a year early on my goal for my birthday in 2016 - nope. Will be just about on time if I don't plummet past them at this rate.

To clarify most of my portfolio is in areas that are down 20-30% at this point and I have not seen gains other than bouncing around in probably 1-2 years - it is getting a bit disheartening that's all.

Take heart.  Compare number of shares now to number of shares a year ago.  The dollar value matters not at all unless you're selling, and you aren't.  It's going to be fine.

NearlyThere

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2016, 01:14:42 PM »
Added another 5% to my holdings today. I see this as prime buying time. Everything's on sale. I've only ever bought on the up, so being able to buy in a decline is great.

As already mentioned above, the loss isn't a loss until you come to sell. Keep on trucking,

capitalninja

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2016, 01:20:25 PM »
This looks like panic has firmly set in. Too bad I finally pulled the trigger on about half my dw and my built up cash just yesterday. The way she goes I guess could have been worse and gone in in oct or nov or any time last year I suppose at this point. Looks like it's gonna be an ugly one again today.

Ugly or glorious depending on which side you're on. I put more capital to work today so the lower prices are a wonderful thing. Unless you have capital to invest or are planning to sell for some life event, there's practically no reason to keep up with how Mr. Market happens to be valuing your holdings on any given day; especially if your holdings primarily consist of index funds.

Edit: Also sweet bonus is that a couple of my dividend paying stocks are paying out tomorrow so a lower closing price today is that much more welcome. A "losing" day is all a matter of perspective. :-)
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 01:29:12 PM by capitalninja »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2016, 01:38:35 PM »
Unless you are adding money or rebalancing stop looking at your portfolio. Get on with your life.

Your money doesn't need constant babysitting.

Rollin

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2016, 01:53:01 PM »
Wow -10%. (note no exclamation point).  This is why my AA is a little more conservative at 60/40 equities/bonds.  I'm down -5%, and likely around -5.5% tomorrow.  (I did add $25K early last week)

FIRE47

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2016, 03:43:01 PM »
This looks like panic has firmly set in. Too bad I finally pulled the trigger on about half my dw and my built up cash just yesterday. The way she goes I guess could have been worse and gone in in oct or nov or any time last year I suppose at this point. Looks like it's gonna be an ugly one again today.

Ugly or glorious depending on which side you're on. I put more capital to work today so the lower prices are a wonderful thing. Unless you have capital to invest or are planning to sell for some life event, there's practically no reason to keep up with how Mr. Market happens to be valuing your holdings on any given day; especially if your holdings primarily consist of index funds.

Edit: Also sweet bonus is that a couple of my dividend paying stocks are paying out tomorrow so a lower closing price today is that much more welcome. A "losing" day is all a matter of perspective. :-)

I guess technically I'm on the side where its still probably about 80% glorious - although it still doesnt feel that way.

I have been slowly changing my AA from 100% stocks but its a slow process as I dont want to do anything hastily near a bottom and is only being done with new additions.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 03:47:21 PM by FIRE47 »

mrpercentage

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2016, 04:01:37 PM »
This is why I like dividend paying stocks of companies I know.  A day like today makes me want to sell mutual funds and indexes but I wouldn't dare touch Exxon, reality income, or my utility. No way, not even Conoco. It's a rocket and it will blow up on the ground or launch into space. Long count down beginning.

Ground control to Major Tom

Yes, but what if exxon cuts it's dividend; anadarko just cut theirs 80%; then you have a stock that has lost value and your dividend has lost value. there is no way exxon isnt going to be the only oil company not cutting dividend if the oil market stays down.

i realize that exxon and anadarko are not in the same league; but unless oil rockets back up in price, which is not going to happen for years unless WW3 breaks out; it's a possibility; just something to think about.

They are not even close. Exxon has maintained a great balance sheet an has a better credit rating than the US government. They did stop buy backs. I think it's been 56 years since they had any issues with a dividend and they have been paying dividends since 1911.

It could happen and I would still hold and with Exxon I would keep buying period. They all are not going under. Just like every grocery store isn't going to go out of business. Walmart (the Saudis) just can't put them all under. Eventually Walmart ended up closing stores from over expansion right? The same is going to happen with oil. It has to make money and no one is making money right now becUse everyone's budget including OPEC is based off higher oil

sirdoug007

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2016, 01:20:13 AM »
Things definitely feel different when your assets are showing price declines vs price increases.

Ben Carlson had an amazing post about this recently (http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/02/bull-markets-vs-bear-markets/):

Early in my career I received a very simple, yet powerful piece of advice about the markets:
In a bull market you’re not as smart as you think you are and in a bear market you’re not as dumb as you think you are.
The problem is that fear and greed don’t always allow us to come to these conclusions in the moment — we tend to default to the opposite.
As markets continue to fall this year many investors are likely beginning to question their own intelligence just as people in 2013-14 were feeling pretty good about how brilliant they were in a rising market. Along these same lines, here’s a quick comparison of some of the different feelings and perspectives investors have depending on which kind of market we happen to be in:

Bull Markets: Fear of missing out.
Bear Markets: Fear of being in.
Bull Markets: Everything I buy is going up — I’m a genius.
Bear Markets: Everything I buy is going down — I’m an idiot.
Bull Markets: See, fundamentals always win out.
Bear Markets: See, technicals and sentiment rule the markets.
Bull Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in stocks.
Bear Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in bonds.
Bull Markets: That guy’s been calling for a crash for years — he’s an idiot.
Bear Markets: That guy just called the crash — he’s a genius.
Bull Markets: I want to be a long-term buy and hold investor.
Bear Markets: I want to be a short-term trader.
Bull Markets: I’m glad I was buying during the last market crash.
Bear Markets: Never try to catch a falling knife.
Bull Markets: I’ll sit tight when the market falls.
Bear Markets: Dear Lord, get me out of stocks NOW!
Bull Markets: Time to buy stocks?
Bear Markets: Time to sell stocks?
Bull Markets: Warren Buffett is washed up.
Bear Markets: Wait, Buffett is buying here?
Bull Markets: Buy & hold works.
Bear Markets: Buy & hold is dead.
Bull Markets: I’ll be greedy when other are fearful.
Bear Markets: I lied — I’m fearful when other are fearful.
Bull Markets: Buy the dip.
Bear Markets: Sell the rip.
Bull Markets: Why didn’t I invest earlier in my life?
Bear Markets: I’ll never invest again.
Bull Markets: Why would I want to diversify?
Bear Markets: Why was I so concentrated?
Bull Markets: I’m just waiting for a healthy correction to put more money to work.
Bear Markets: This market action is not healthy at all.
Bull Markets: Don’t worry, we’ll outperform during the next downturn.
Bear Markets: Don’t worry, we’ll outperform when the market turns around.
Bull Markets: It feels like markets will never fall again.
Bear Markets: It feels like markets will never rise again.



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Mr. Green

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2016, 07:40:35 AM »

mrpercentage

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #26 on: February 12, 2016, 08:35:01 AM »
WEEEE!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg1dQ0sBsqk

Thank me later.

I just killed done brain cells laughing too hard. Seriously my head hurts

Jack

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #27 on: February 12, 2016, 01:02:41 PM »
WEEEE!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg1dQ0sBsqk

Thank me later.

I just killed done brain cells laughing too hard. Seriously my head hurts

Ah, an Internet classic. (That thing's older than Youtube itself. The original is here, I think.)

Wads

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #28 on: February 12, 2016, 01:46:38 PM »

"Danger Ahead"

Regardless of your thoughts on the markets I think this 15-minute video is worth a watch.

http://carlicahn.com

mrpercentage

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2016, 07:12:59 AM »
Just curious, has anyone fully cashed out?

mpg350

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #30 on: February 13, 2016, 07:20:26 AM »
I moved my 401k in late Aug from out of the market into safer bonds and for the year I am up a little.

Will move into stocks at a later date when I see market is ready.

No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.

I have followed the market for years and know about trading and would not suggest this for most people.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2016, 07:22:39 AM by mpg350 »

mrpercentage

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #31 on: February 13, 2016, 07:29:09 AM »
I moved my 401k in late Aug from out of the market into safer bonds and for the year I am up a little.

Will move into stocks at a later date when I see market is ready.

No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.

I have followed the market for years and know about trading and would not suggest this for most people.

Seasonal?

mpg350

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #32 on: February 13, 2016, 07:55:51 AM »
I moved my 401k in late Aug from out of the market into safer bonds and for the year I am up a little.

Will move into stocks at a later date when I see market is ready.

No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.

I have followed the market for years and know about trading and would not suggest this for most people.

Seasonal?

Seasonal what?
 

wienerdog

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #33 on: February 13, 2016, 07:56:27 AM »

Well it is something - it's about 4-5 months of savings for us by the time we get our net pay and pay our expenses. Regardless it's basically as if I have been running on a treadmill the last 5 months or so fighting the falling markets with no progress to show whatsoever.

You should have progress if you are still buying at regular intervals as your number of shares have increased.  Even if you stuck $20,000 in VTI in June @ $110. You would have ~181 shares of VTI.  If you bought another $20,000 this past Thursday at $92 you would have another ~217  shares for a total of 398 shares.  Yea your $40,000 is now worth ~$36,600.  But when VTI rises back to $101 you have your $40,000 back.  When it hits $110 you now have ~$43800.  This doesn't include if you reinvested dividends along the way on the original June buy.

It helps to look at the number of shares as eventually you'll be back to where you started and with more shares if you are in the accumulation phase.

Cougar

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #34 on: February 13, 2016, 10:51:03 AM »
I moved my 401k in late Aug from out of the market into safer bonds and for the year I am up a little.

Will move into stocks at a later date when I see market is ready.

No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.

I have followed the market for years and know about trading and would not suggest this for most people.

congrats.

I moved to mostly bonds last summer also and have remained.

was hoping to go back to stocks as they historically rise from November to april, but economics told you that wasn't happening; and it did not.

bacchi

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #35 on: February 13, 2016, 11:51:35 AM »
To those who sold: Please tell us when the bottom is. Thanks.

Kaspian

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #36 on: February 13, 2016, 12:03:05 PM »
To those who sold: Please tell us when the bottom is. Thanks.

Nice!  :D   I moved some equity to bonds last year during the course of a regular rebalancing.  It things continue the way they have this year, I'll be moving cash back the other way come July.  Happily, it wasn't guesswork--it was a set date to keep my asset allocation percentages in line with my investment policy statement.  Keeps me contarian, selling high and buying low.  So far, so good on that front.  :D

capitalninja

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #37 on: February 13, 2016, 12:59:38 PM »
I don't understand how people aren't buying equities these days with every spare dollar they have. Do you really believe that "this is the big one" and that within a couple of years from now the market won't recover and surpass its previous highs? If you don't need the money to live on, why not put it to work?

Wads

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #38 on: February 13, 2016, 03:05:22 PM »
I don't understand how people aren't buying equities these days with every spare dollar they have. Do you really believe that "this is the big one" and that within a couple of years from now the market won't recover and surpass its previous highs? If you don't need the money to live on, why not put it to work?

Because adding "new" money to the broad stock market at todays valuation offers less than 1% annual return over the next decade along with a double-digit potential drawdown. This is essentially risking dollars to make pennies. There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

tj

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #39 on: February 13, 2016, 03:33:12 PM »
I don't understand how people aren't buying equities these days with every spare dollar they have. Do you really believe that "this is the big one" and that within a couple of years from now the market won't recover and surpass its previous highs? If you don't need the money to live on, why not put it to work?

Because adding "new" money to the broad stock market at todays valuation offers less than 1% annual return over the next decade along with a double-digit potential drawdown. This is essentially risking dollars to make pennies. There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

1% annual seems incredibly pessimistic to me.

Jack

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #40 on: February 13, 2016, 04:20:13 PM »
There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

Oh? Like what?

mrpercentage

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #41 on: February 13, 2016, 04:41:00 PM »
I moved my 401k in late Aug from out of the market into safer bonds and for the year I am up a little.

Will move into stocks at a later date when I see market is ready.

No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.

I have followed the market for years and know about trading and would not suggest this for most people.

Seasonal?

Seasonal what?

Do you switch between stocks and bonds seasonally? Some do

Wads

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #42 on: February 13, 2016, 05:13:43 PM »
There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

Oh? Like what?

Amazon, and I'm not talking about their stock. Below I will attempt to explain what I have been doing and how I turned Amazon into a passive income stream

1) Find products on Amazon with high sales and low competition. You can do this by looking at the best seller rank (BRS) on each listing.
2) Search for the product on Alibaba, create a list of all possible manufactures selling the product.
3) Contact all the manufactures and ask for pricing details. This can be done by Skype, phone or email.
4) Get samples from the 3-5 manufactures sent to you.
5) Based on quality of the samples, choose your supplier.
6) Order 500-1,000 units to start
7) Ship Directly from China to Amazon's warehouse using FBA(Fulfillment by Amazon)
8) Use third party review service to get reviews, this will rank you for keywords and move your product closer to page one.
9) Manage Inventory
10) Receive check from Amazon every two weeks.

Most people are not aware that the majority of stuff sold on Amazon if from a regular "Joe" just like you and I. By using Amazon's fulfillment services, they handle everything for you including 2-day shipping to customers and returns. This has created a "almost" passive income stream of over $2,000 monthly. In my opinion, this is the best opportunity right now.





wienerdog

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #43 on: February 13, 2016, 05:29:30 PM »
This has created a "almost" passive income stream of over $2,000 monthly. In my opinion, this is the best opportunity right now.

Nice side hustle.  How long have you been doing it?  Have you ever got stuck with unused inventory?  How do you handle returns?

Wads

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #44 on: February 13, 2016, 06:20:11 PM »

Thanks.

I've been doing this for 6 months. Amazon will send you the returned items, most of the time my product is fine and I send them back to Amazon's fulfillment centers. Less than 3% of purchases get returned, my product is priced at $19.99 and most people would rather just keep it than pay for return shipping.

I only have one product right now and have not been stuck with unused inventory. The cost for purchasing these items are so cheap, even if you were to get stuck, your loss wouldn't be much.

Check for yourself. Pick an Item priced from $20-$30 on Amazon and go look it up on Alibaba, you will be surprised.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2016, 06:23:14 PM by BrandonFI »

EarlyStart

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2016, 12:18:32 AM »
So the U.S. stock market is 12.7% off its all-time high. Doesn't seem panic-worthy to me.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2016, 12:23:26 AM »
I ran the numbers today, and it looks like we will be able to max out my 401(k), DW's 403(b), both of our Roth IRAs for 2015 and 2016 (we focused in some other areas in 2015 and didn't make those contributions until last week), and on top of that I get a pretty sweet employer match and non-match contribution for my 401(k).  All told, that will be about $78,000 going into the market this year, and a big chunk within February and March.  Buying on sale!

SwordGuy

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #47 on: February 14, 2016, 07:21:53 AM »
Well it is something - it's about 4-5 months of savings for us by the time we get our net pay and pay our expenses. Regardless it's basically as if I have been running on a treadmill the last 5 months or so fighting the falling markets with no progress to show whatsoever. I remember thinking wow I'm almost a year early on my goal for my birthday in 2016 - nope. Will be just about on time if I don't plummet past them at this rate.

To clarify most of my portfolio is in areas that are down 20-30% at this point and I have not seen gains other than bouncing around in probably 1-2 years - it is getting a bit disheartening that's all.

Let me fix that for you.  Here is what you meant to write:

"I'm going to be buying ownership in a wide variety of companies for some years to come.  Recently, the price for that ownership was pretty high, but now I'm excited because there is a big sale on!  Now when I get dividends (the only kind of actual gains I can get before I sell my stocks), I'll be able to buy even more stocks with them."


Mr. Green

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #48 on: February 15, 2016, 08:55:05 AM »
No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.
I literally LOL'ed when I read this. Sounds like a 2008 repeat.

kurtnyc

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #49 on: February 18, 2016, 02:02:49 PM »
Just curious, has anyone fully cashed out?

Well bit slow to catch this, but I'll bite since no one else did.
I went to cash on 12-22-15 with SPX at about 2055. I think we'll see a run up to 2040-2060 range and at that point I'll consider going short the market again. I think pain(opportunity) is just starting.

I get MPT and all that, but the bull market is over, and 'paper losses' are real folks. Yes I might miss gains before I get back into some VTI etc.. but it feels good to remember you can choose NOT to be in the market.