Author Topic: BRK.B $182! Buy?  (Read 8324 times)

Padonak

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #50 on: March 21, 2020, 07:02:41 PM »
Is it possible to buy BRK.B shares on Vanguard?

AdrianC

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #51 on: March 22, 2020, 01:44:17 PM »
Sure, in a brokerage account.

vand

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #52 on: March 26, 2020, 09:20:40 AM »
It will be interesting to see if Buffett has significantly dipped into Berkshire's cash pile when the next set of figures are available.

I would suggest that if he hasn't, then he deserves to be fired, as valuations did reach reasonable levels, and it was certainly possible to find more than a few bargains.

You have to ponder that if he isn't buying now then when IS he going to buy?  Eventually the cash does need to be put to work.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #53 on: March 26, 2020, 10:12:35 AM »
...
Gutted company.

THere's no excuse for the 737-800 MAX problem. If you dig into it, Boeing's employees showed lots of arrogance vis a vis FAA. Now they've built a plane that crashes and one year later and they still can't figure out why. Or, if they have figured out why, they can't fix it. Which is worse?
They figured out why a year ago.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/22/18275736/boeing-737-max-plane-crashes-grounded-problems-info-details-explained-reasons#B10ojB

They can't fly until the FAA certifies every plane individually.

In the week since my prior post, the stock of that "gutted company" has gone up +82%.

bwall

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #54 on: April 01, 2020, 03:38:08 PM »
...
Gutted company.

THere's no excuse for the 737-800 MAX problem. If you dig into it, Boeing's employees showed lots of arrogance vis a vis FAA. Now they've built a plane that crashes and one year later and they still can't figure out why. Or, if they have figured out why, they can't fix it. Which is worse?
They figured out why a year ago.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/22/18275736/boeing-737-max-plane-crashes-grounded-problems-info-details-explained-reasons#B10ojB

They can't fly until the FAA certifies every plane individually.

In the week since my prior post, the stock of that "gutted company" has gone up +82%.

Thank you for proving the link. From your link, the first sentence that comes up when clicking is:

"Both crashes are currently under investigation, and there is no final word on what caused either tragedy."

Which is my point exactly. They still can't figure out why. If they knew why, the stock would be much higher. But, they don't know why. And, until they know why the FAA won't let a plane fly. As a person who boards airplanes, I am very thankful that this is the case.

On Mar. 20, the day of my quote, BA traded at $100. On Mar. 26, the day of your reply, the stock traded at $182 (or thereabouts). Today, Apr. 1, BA closed at $130.

I don't know where the stock will trade tomorrow or in one week, or in two weeks. But, I'd guess much closer to $100 than $180.

FrugalSaver

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #55 on: April 01, 2020, 06:30:59 PM »
BA is toast for a very long time. Interesting trading vehicle

BicycleB

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #56 on: April 02, 2020, 11:25:08 AM »
...
Gutted company.

THere's no excuse for the 737-800 MAX problem. If you dig into it, Boeing's employees showed lots of arrogance vis a vis FAA. Now they've built a plane that crashes and one year later and they still can't figure out why. Or, if they have figured out why, they can't fix it. Which is worse?
They figured out why a year ago.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/22/18275736/boeing-737-max-plane-crashes-grounded-problems-info-details-explained-reasons#B10ojB

They can't fly until the FAA certifies every plane individually.

In the week since my prior post, the stock of that "gutted company" has gone up +82%.

Thank you for proving the link. From your link, the first sentence that comes up when clicking is:

"Both crashes are currently under investigation, and there is no final word on what caused either tragedy."

Which is my point exactly. They still can't figure out why.

....

From reading the article, it looked like:
1. They figured out that the problem was an improper corrective response caused by faulty sensors
2. They knew ahead of time that the problem could exist, but only included full solution descriptions to airlines who paid extra
3. There was an override that could prevent or control the dangerous result, but it was only described in writing within manuals for the high paying airlines
4. The override was described in verbal training, but that was not enough in the crash cases
5. The investigations have not been closed, but that doesn't mean no one knows the answer, it means that the official reports have not been issued

To be fair, I read the article a week ago or something; just typing by memory at this point. Fwiw, when I did read the article, it made me think "Oh, that's a solvable problem. Maybe I WILL fly in one of those planes one day."

Maybe.  :)

As a BRK-B holder through indexes, I'd be fine if Buffett bought Boeing. Still considering direct purchase of some BRK-B. I kind of feel like he'll pull off some purchases and the stock will rally before I get around to buying (I have other things to do first, which I am approaching kind of lazily).
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 11:32:11 AM by BicycleB »

bwall

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #57 on: April 02, 2020, 02:15:43 PM »
@BicycleB :
I assume that your analysis is correct. Please allow me to expound on my previous statement:

1) Are the planes in the sky? No.
2) Has the FAA announced a fix and given a date when the planes can fly again? No.
Therefore, there is no fix in place.

I'm sure that someone at Boeing has an opinion on what it is. I'm sure that person even gives interviews with reporters telling them the fix is just around the corner and it's just that darned FAA taking too long! But, until the fix is in place, it's not in place. It's just spilled ink on a page.

It's going on two years now. It might be another two years. Or five. Or ten. Until we know, it's too risky to buy the stock.

I believe that one day the 737-800 MAX will fly without crashing. But as of now we have no guidance from the FAA when that will be. When the FAA does give that guidance, then that's the signal to buy the stock. Not before.

As an aside; today when the S&P and DJIA both closed up 2.25%, BA underperformed, dropping 5.7% to $123.

BicycleB

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #58 on: April 02, 2020, 05:26:43 PM »
^ Fair enough!! Thanks for clarifying.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #59 on: April 03, 2020, 05:39:31 AM »
They figured out why a year ago.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/22/18275736/boeing-737-max-plane-crashes-grounded-problems-info-details-explained-reasons#B10ojB
Thank you for proving the link. From your link, the first sentence that comes up when clicking is:

"Both crashes are currently under investigation, and there is no final word on what caused either tragedy."

Which is my point exactly. They still can't figure out why.
I mentioned that article to show what was already known a year ago.  I wouldn't say "they still can't figure out why" relying on information that as 12 months old.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 05:42:14 AM by MustacheAndaHalf »

bwall

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #60 on: April 03, 2020, 06:18:50 AM »
hmmm..... so, if they figured it out one year ago, why aren't the planes in the air today? Or scheduled to be in the air?

To me, this means that they haven't figured it out yet. YMMV.

Panly

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #61 on: April 03, 2020, 06:45:08 AM »

It is very unlikely that BRK would take control of BA.    Buffett & Munger don't like mismanaged companies that need a drastic change of management before they can be turned around.   

After buying PCP,  BRK should have approached United Technologies,  that would have been a perfect fit.

 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #62 on: April 03, 2020, 08:16:11 AM »
hmmm..... so, if they figured it out one year ago, why aren't the planes in the air today? Or scheduled to be in the air?

To me, this means that they haven't figured it out yet. YMMV.

As I said earlier:
They can't fly until the FAA certifies every plane individually.

You don't have to guess about this stuff: you can research "737 max" on Wikipedia and Google News.

bwall

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #63 on: April 03, 2020, 09:41:23 AM »
^ Yeh, I think we interpret the same data in different ways.

Optimiser

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #64 on: April 20, 2020, 09:18:18 AM »
Buffett partner Munger calls coronavirus recession ‘the worst typhoon that’s ever happened,’ says CEOs too ‘frozen’ to ask for a bailout
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-partner-munger-calls-coronavirus-recession-the-worst-typhoon-thats-ever-happened-says-ceos-too-frozen-to-ask-for-a-bailout-2020-04-17

“I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes. We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing ‘oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses]”
-Munger

Car Jack

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #65 on: April 20, 2020, 02:07:17 PM »
That huge pile of cash puts them in a particularly good position with companies potentially at unheard of low prices.  Or buy oil at negative cost and store it all on BRK train cars.

I hold less than $100k in BRK/b. 

vand

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #66 on: May 01, 2020, 10:48:44 AM »
BRK continues to underperform

Although it held up a bit better than the wider market in the selloff, the recovery has been much weaker too, such that it is still down 20% from peak vs 17% S&P, and it didn't even manage to tag its 50 day moving average before rolling over again.

I keep wondering why would anyone want to buy Berkshire today? It's sheer size guarantees that delivering any alpha is a herculean task for even the greatest investor. There is a reason why most successful funds close their doors to new money well before they reach even a fraction of Berkshire's size. At this point is only because they buy into the Berkshire's past record, not its future prospects.

Kroaler

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #67 on: May 03, 2020, 07:34:58 AM »
I I read correctly - Berk sold all positions in airlines recently?

About 4 billion worth.

Retire-Canada

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #68 on: May 03, 2020, 07:58:26 AM »
I I read correctly - Berk sold all positions in airlines recently?

About 4 billion worth.

Not sure about the sale price, but yes they sold all their airline equity. Warren did say they took a solid loss on the sale.

Video clip on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDE9ckVnu_M
« Last Edit: May 03, 2020, 08:07:46 AM by Retire-Canada »

Telecaster

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #69 on: May 03, 2020, 11:09:06 AM »
BRK continues to underperform

Although it held up a bit better than the wider market in the selloff, the recovery has been much weaker too, such that it is still down 20% from peak vs 17% S&P, and it didn't even manage to tag its 50 day moving average before rolling over again.

I keep wondering why would anyone want to buy Berkshire today? It's sheer size guarantees that delivering any alpha is a herculean task for even the greatest investor. There is a reason why most successful funds close their doors to new money well before they reach even a fraction of Berkshire's size. At this point is only because they buy into the Berkshire's past record, not its future prospects.

You could be right, but I'm not so sure.  Although I do agree that BRK's size makes any large outperformance unlikely. That said, most of the S&P's outpeformance is due to the last 18 months.   Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 has clearly gotten more expensive.   But over the same period, BRK has gotten cheaper.  If you are looking for a straight up value play, there it is. 

Buffett has taken a fair amount of criticism for not deploying his enormous pile of cash into the roaring bear market.    Now suddenly, having an enormous pile of cash seems like a very wise thing to have.  Presumably, some bargains will become available here soon and some of that cash can be deployed. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #70 on: May 03, 2020, 02:42:30 PM »
BRK continues to underperform

Buffet has said recently you should expect BRK to under perform the S&P 500.

vand

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #71 on: May 04, 2020, 03:02:58 AM »
Buffett has taken a fair amount of criticism for not deploying his enormous pile of cash into the roaring bear market.    Now suddenly, having an enormous pile of cash seems like a very wise thing to have.  Presumably, some bargains will become available here soon and some of that cash can be deployed.

If I was a holder I wouldn't be happy that he hasn't deployed any of the cash in the current downturn.  I know that Buffett isn't exactly a day trader, but the Dow did fall below 20k for a few sessions and was -35% at one point. Was that cheap enough? If not what sort of discount is he waiting for? -50% That is a discount that might only come around once every 20 years.. do you want your fund manager to be sitting on cash for 20 years? The window was brief, but it was there.   People will say how can you pick the bottom, but the bear market unfolded much, much faster than anything we have previously seen, so it follows that the opportunity passed by a lot quicker too.. and most market timers have been waiting so long they blinked and missed it.

Valuations have been steadily increasing for not just year,s but decades now, and there are good reasons for this.

BRK has got cheaper because it deserves to be cheaper, holding mostly old-economy businesses that are much less well positioned to weather the current storms; an economic moat can't save you from an economic tsunami.

One of the greatest ironies is that as Berkshire's outperformance has disappeared over time, so has Berkshire's popularity and and Buffett's reputation grown. These days there isn't a person who hasn't heard of Buffett or knows his long term track record, but 20 years ago when I first started investing he wasn't quite the household name he is today.

Today, there is an annual pilgrimage to Omaha every year to celebrate... what, exactly? mediocrity? Underperformance? Excuses? Most of these people fancy themselves as contrarians who run against the grain, but they can't appreciate the irony of this cultish behaviour.

BTW, I was and still am a fan of Buffett's wisdom, but I'm more a fan of objective numbers, and Berkshire's numbers have been mediocre for a long time now.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2020, 03:30:43 AM by vand »

diggo

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #72 on: May 04, 2020, 10:36:43 AM »
Buffett has taken a fair amount of criticism for not deploying his enormous pile of cash into the roaring bear market.    Now suddenly, having an enormous pile of cash seems like a very wise thing to have.  Presumably, some bargains will become available here soon and some of that cash can be deployed.

If I was a holder I wouldn't be happy that he hasn't deployed any of the cash in the current downturn.  I know that Buffett isn't exactly a day trader, but the Dow did fall below 20k for a few sessions and was -35% at one point. Was that cheap enough? If not what sort of discount is he waiting for? -50% That is a discount that might only come around once every 20 years.. do you want your fund manager to be sitting on cash for 20 years? The window was brief, but it was there.   People will say how can you pick the bottom, but the bear market unfolded much, much faster than anything we have previously seen, so it follows that the opportunity passed by a lot quicker too.. and most market timers have been waiting so long they blinked and missed it.

Valuations have been steadily increasing for not just year,s but decades now, and there are good reasons for this.

BRK has got cheaper because it deserves to be cheaper, holding mostly old-economy businesses that are much less well positioned to weather the current storms; an economic moat can't save you from an economic tsunami.

One of the greatest ironies is that as Berkshire's outperformance has disappeared over time, so has Berkshire's popularity and and Buffett's reputation grown. These days there isn't a person who hasn't heard of Buffett or knows his long term track record, but 20 years ago when I first started investing he wasn't quite the household name he is today.

Today, there is an annual pilgrimage to Omaha every year to celebrate... what, exactly? mediocrity? Underperformance? Excuses? Most of these people fancy themselves as contrarians who run against the grain, but they can't appreciate the irony of this cultish behaviour.

BTW, I was and still am a fan of Buffett's wisdom, but I'm more a fan of objective numbers, and Berkshire's numbers have been mediocre for a long time now.

If you watched the annual meeting on the weekend, you would have heard him make a pretty important statement when someone asked why he didn't buy back any shares when they were down -30% in March.. He said that he didn't think Berkshire was any better value proposition than it was a few months ago when he was buying much higher. Don't confuse price and value, they are not the same thing.

Furthermore, while there may have been other better opportunities out there at the time, BRK cannot buy a significant amount of common stock in such a short amount of time anyway. It takes them months to build up a position.

Lastly, if the federal reserve didn't step in so quickly and so aggressively.. Buffett probably would have had the chance to make a mammoth $50 Billion dollar acquisition at a much bigger discount by now

Don't forget that Berkshire is a $500B company. Having $130B in cash is not an unreasonable amount relative to the size of the company. He admits it may be a little conservative. But he knows history. And history tells him that crazy events can happen out of the blue. It turns out, he did the right thing and this saved Berkshire from a much larger decline. He is in a great position right now.

vand

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #73 on: May 04, 2020, 11:23:04 AM »
If you watched the annual meeting on the weekend, you would have heard him make a pretty important statement when someone asked why he didn't buy back any shares when they were down -30% in March.. He said that he didn't think Berkshire was any better value proposition than it was a few months ago when he was buying much higher. Don't confuse price and value, they are not the same thing.

Furthermore, while there may have been other better opportunities out there at the time, BRK cannot buy a significant amount of common stock in such a short amount of time anyway. It takes them months to build up a position.

Lastly, if the federal reserve didn't step in so quickly and so aggressively.. Buffett probably would have had the chance to make a mammoth $50 Billion dollar acquisition at a much bigger discount by now

Don't forget that Berkshire is a $500B company. Having $130B in cash is not an unreasonable amount relative to the size of the company. He admits it may be a little conservative. But he knows history. And history tells him that crazy events can happen out of the blue. It turns out, he did the right thing and this saved Berkshire from a much larger decline. He is in a great position right now.

Oh, don't worry, I most certainly haven't forgotton about the problems of scale.. I've been constantly pointing out what a huge handicap this has become for them.

And I don't agree that they can't move quickly to build a position if they really wanted to; he seemed to be able to dump his airline positions fairly sharpish, after all.

IMO Buffett has allowed himself to become far more emotionally and psychologically affected from this virus than your run of the mill investor, which is perhaps understandable as he is no doubt in a high-risk group himself, and for all we know could have issues that put him in a very high risk group.

If Buffett really thinks Berkshire is worse value today than when the market was higher then he would do well to return the cash to shareholders. As I say, if his investors are happy to wait for the market to do business on Buffett's own terms then they  could easily be in for a decade long wait or more.

ice_beard

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #74 on: May 04, 2020, 11:45:45 AM »
Kraft, Coca Cola, buying airlines at all time highs.  Brilliant.  Does he still not buy tech companies either? 
I was nosing around this stock when this thread first came up but have likely decided against it, for now. 

Edited to add OXY.  Oof.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2020, 04:20:35 PM by ice_beard »

Telecaster

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #75 on: May 04, 2020, 12:15:38 PM »
Kraft, Coca Cola, buying airlines at all time highs.  Brilliant.  Does he still not buy tech companies either? 
I was nosing around this stock when this thread first came up but have likely decided against it, for now.

Berkshire owns about 6% of Apple. 

talltexan

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #76 on: May 15, 2020, 07:39:52 AM »
Currently trading at $170/share

vand

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #77 on: June 16, 2020, 01:11:30 PM »
BRK's underperformance to the S&P continues to reach new lows (or should that be scale new highs?):

SPY/BRK ratio:

http://schrts.co/YwxfANcS

AdrianC

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #78 on: June 18, 2020, 09:56:12 AM »
BRK's underperformance to the S&P continues to reach new lows (or should that be scale new highs?):
Sure. Buffett has battened down the hatches, apparently raising even more cash. That doesn't sit well with the optimistic market right now. There is no Buffett premium, probably more of a Buffett discount.

Is Buffett right to be pessimistic? I think so. We are still in the first wave of COVID-19. We have zero leadership at the top, only denial. Half the citizenry still think this is a hoax or the flu, and they won't take even the most basic precaution of wearing a cloth mask.

As for me and my house, well, we're taking reasonable precautions, and spending very much less than we normally would. This is us:

The Rich Have Stopped Spending And That Has Tanked The Economy
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/17/878946307/the-rich-have-stopped-spending-and-thats-tanked-the-economy

vand

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #79 on: August 08, 2020, 02:58:01 PM »
I've been all too happy to kick Berkshire and Buffett when they've been down, so its only fair to acknowledge that they've been killing it the last 5 weeks - up 19% since late June, although most of it has been through a higher multiple to NAV, going from x1.147 to x1.37. 

helloyou

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #80 on: August 08, 2020, 05:38:14 PM »
I wanted to wait for the drop from 180 to 175 to put a large position. But it never happened. I'm crying now...

bacchi

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #81 on: August 08, 2020, 05:42:28 PM »
I wanted to wait for the drop from 180 to 175 to put a large position. But it never happened. I'm crying now...

You'd be ahead if you bought VTI in March.

If you really think it was smart to buy it in March, you can now buy more.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #82 on: August 09, 2020, 03:17:37 AM »
Warren Buffet spent $5.1 billion buying back Berkshire shares, so he thinks that's the best use of spare cash.  I don't know if that was announced before or after the market closed Friday...  my guess is Monday shares might go up as more people digest that news
(it's the largest ever stock buyback by Berkshire).
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/08/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-q2-2020.html

helloyou

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #83 on: August 09, 2020, 04:45:33 AM »
I wanted to wait for the drop from 180 to 175 to put a large position. But it never happened. I'm crying now...

You'd be ahead if you bought VTI in March.

If you really think it was smart to buy it in March, you can now buy more.

I could have bought anything on march bottom and I'd be ahead...

helloyou

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #84 on: August 09, 2020, 04:47:17 AM »
Warren Buffet spent $5.1 billion buying back Berkshire shares, so he thinks that's the best use of spare cash.  I don't know if that was announced before or after the market closed Friday...  my guess is Monday shares might go up as more people digest that news
(it's the largest ever stock buyback by Berkshire).
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/08/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-q2-2020.html

Yeah but its already at $210 now. Not that far from all time high.

He still has 10% drop in operating earning and $10B write off. So really need to think through more buy unless he does nice deal

bthewalls

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #85 on: August 09, 2020, 04:09:50 PM »
Would it be fair to say we’ve all got used to extremely high annual returns over the last few years? What happens when it returns to a normal figure...

helloyou

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Re: BRK.B $182! Buy?
« Reply #86 on: August 09, 2020, 05:11:23 PM »
Would it be fair to say we’ve all got used to extremely high annual returns over the last few years? What happens when it returns to a normal figure...

Thats just speculation and previous years doesn't predict the future ones... i think i read that all the time.

I believe return is likely to keep "looking" high due to mass money printing