Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 44481 times)

MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #150 on: June 28, 2016, 08:04:39 PM »

It is MMM-forum member Tyler's custom blend of 80% Permanent Portfolio, 20% US Small Cap Value.

I am a fan of PP, but what does adding in 20% small cap do for it?

Tyler

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #151 on: June 28, 2016, 08:11:20 PM »
Hi Moonshadow.

To not derail the Brexit discussion, here are a few Golden Butterfly links:

http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/portfolio-charts-the-golden-butterfly/

https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/04/18/the-theory-behind-the-golden-butterfly/

If you have any questions, feel free to PM me and I'm happy to help.

« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 08:52:50 PM by Tyler »

Cycling Stache

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #152 on: June 29, 2016, 09:23:18 AM »
Well, now I'm confused.  I cancelled all my early retirement plans and gave up on ever having enough money after Brexit, but now the markets (at least the S&P 500) are almost completely recovered. 

Is it possible that the ramifications of this on the market were overblown?  If so, does that mean that we cannot trust everything we read in the paper or on the internet?  Should we really just keep investing even though possibly the worst thing ever, ever may happen sometime soon(er or later)?  What do I do about the fact that Mr. Percentage recommended going to cash?

Uggh, forget it.  I'm going to keep indexing with every available dollar.  But someday I'm really going to learn how to beat the market, because people keep telling me it only requires some work and careful thought.  I'm not sure why those people are not already billionaires, but maybe you learn that answer at the same time you learn how to consistently beat the market.

In the meantime, I'm just going to keep calm and carry on!

runningthroughFIRE

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #153 on: June 29, 2016, 09:28:02 AM »
Well, now I'm confused.  I cancelled all my early retirement plans and gave up on ever having enough money after Brexit, but now the markets (at least the S&P 500) are almost completely recovered. 

Is it possible that the ramifications of this on the market were overblown?  If so, does that mean that we cannot trust everything we read in the paper or on the internet?  Should we really just keep investing even though possibly the worst thing ever, ever may happen sometime soon(er or later)?  What do I do about the fact that Mr. Percentage recommended going to cash?

Uggh, forget it.  I'm going to keep indexing with every available dollar.  But someday I'm really going to learn how to beat the market, because people keep telling me it only requires some work and careful thought.  I'm not sure why those people are not already billionaires, but maybe you learn that answer at the same time you learn how to consistently beat the market.

In the meantime, I'm just going to keep calm and carry on!
As always, England prevails

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #154 on: June 29, 2016, 09:34:15 AM »
I think the markets will adjust and British companies and other multi-national companies invested in England will -- as usual -- find a way of arbitraging the situation to their advantage.  They'll just take their investment elsewhere.  I think the markets will continue to hiccup due to the uncertainty in the short term, but this isn't what I'd call a bubble.

But the British economy and British people themselves?  Screwed, I think, unfortunately... until trade deals and stabilization plans can be worked out.

Kaspian

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #155 on: June 29, 2016, 10:03:56 AM »
I think the markets will adjust and British companies and other multi-national companies invested in England will -- as usual -- find a way of arbitraging the situation to their advantage.  They'll just take their investment elsewhere.  I think the markets will continue to hiccup due to the uncertainty in the short term, but this isn't what I'd call a bubble.

But the British economy and British people themselves?  Screwed, I think, unfortunately... until trade deals and stabilization plans can be worked out.

I think there's a very, very high chance Britain will come out of this smelling like an English rose.  Switzerland isn't in the EU and they're rocking the economy in that country hardcore.  Would you (as South Korea, Japan, the USA) rather deal with Britain directly or have to go through all the EU bullshit rules?  Trade agreements aren't even necessary in most cases.  I believe the cost of imported goods will come down drastically there and there will be way more selling opportunities for the Isles.  It may take 3-5 years, but cutting out the middle-man may prove to be a very wise decision.

Even on a personal level--I have no qualms about placing an eBay order to someone from England, but Romania, Portugal, or Latvia?!  I raise an eyebrow and generally look for another seller.  The UK has a trustworthy trade reputation not shared with with some of the countries on the continent.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 10:08:20 AM by Kaspian »

MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #156 on: June 29, 2016, 10:08:03 AM »
I think the markets will adjust and British companies and other multi-national companies invested in England will -- as usual -- find a way of arbitraging the situation to their advantage.  They'll just take their investment elsewhere.  I think the markets will continue to hiccup due to the uncertainty in the short term, but this isn't what I'd call a bubble.

But the British economy and British people themselves?  Screwed, I think, unfortunately... until trade deals and stabilization plans can be worked out.

I think there's a very, very high chance Britain will come out of this smelling like an English rose.  Switzerland isn't in the EU and they're rocking the economy in that country hardcore.  Would you (as South Korea, Japan, the USA) rather deal with Britain directly or have to go through all the EU bullshit rules?  Trade agreements aren't even necessary in most cases.  I believe the cost of imported goods will come down drastically there and there will be way more selling opportunities for the Isles.  It may take 3-5 years, but cutting out the middle-man may prove to be a very wise decision.

Accoeding to the Brexit movie, of the top 10 trade "partners" nations to Britian, only 2 ere in the EU.

randymarsh

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #157 on: June 29, 2016, 10:34:01 AM »
I think the markets will adjust and British companies and other multi-national companies invested in England will -- as usual -- find a way of arbitraging the situation to their advantage.  They'll just take their investment elsewhere.  I think the markets will continue to hiccup due to the uncertainty in the short term, but this isn't what I'd call a bubble.

But the British economy and British people themselves?  Screwed, I think, unfortunately... until trade deals and stabilization plans can be worked out.

I think there's a very, very high chance Britain will come out of this smelling like an English rose.  Switzerland isn't in the EU and they're rocking the economy in that country hardcore.

Switzerland has treaties in place and abides by many EU rules though. The question now is can Britain get as good a deal?

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #158 on: June 29, 2016, 10:39:09 AM »
I think there's a very, very high chance Britain will come out of this smelling like an English rose.

England may come out of it alone without Scotland and Ireland. I can't see how that's going to be good for them, but ultimately the world will keep turning and markets in general will be fine. Whether or not it turns out amazing for England remains to be seen.

Switzerland and England don't have a lot in common so trying to make a comparison there is pointless.

Kaspian

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #159 on: June 29, 2016, 10:50:37 AM »
Switzerland and England don't have a lot in common so trying to make a comparison there is pointless.

Given $1 million but told I had to invest in two of the following:  Switzerland, UK, and/or EU, you can be damn certain I wouldn't put my money on the EU.  (Even despite the London Whale thing.)  This whole idea about multi-nationals and banks uprooting from the UK to move to Europe, I believe will happen in reverse.  You'd have to be crazy to move your money from London to Brussels. 

Scandium

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #160 on: June 29, 2016, 11:34:20 AM »
I think there's a very, very high chance Britain will come out of this smelling like an English rose.

England may come out of it alone without Scotland and Ireland. I can't see how that's going to be good for them, but ultimately the world will keep turning and markets in general will be fine. Whether or not it turns out amazing for England remains to be seen.

Switzerland and England don't have a lot in common so trying to make a comparison there is pointless.

Switzerland (and Norway, another non-EU country) abide by most EU rules through the EEC to gain access to the single market. Wasn't that one of the main things the Leavers wanted to avoid, EU rules? I don't see how they could do that deal and basically giving up the whole reason the voted leave in the first place. And I believe Tusk and others said there will be no single market access without accepting free movement of people, the other main point for Leave.

The Switzerland deal looks to me very similar to what England already had (no Euro or Schengen etc). What they want now is unclear but it can't be that if they want to honor the promises of Leave.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 02:27:30 PM by Scandium »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #161 on: June 29, 2016, 11:55:06 AM »
Given $1 million but told I had to invest in two of the following:  Switzerland, UK, and/or EU, you can be damn certain I wouldn't put my money on the EU.  (Even despite the London Whale thing.)  This whole idea about multi-nationals and banks uprooting from the UK to move to Europe, I believe will happen in reverse.  You'd have to be crazy to move your money from London to Brussels.

You response has nothing to do with the text you quoted from me. Comparing Switzerland to the UK makes no sense since they are not similar economies. That has nothing to do with whether or not I would invest in one or the other.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #162 on: June 29, 2016, 12:42:56 PM »
Folks, consider today a gift....you can still get out of the stock markets and into gold before the next, much larger down leg of what is going to be the greatest recession we have ever seen.

*slaps self*




Chargem

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #163 on: June 29, 2016, 12:46:57 PM »
I think the bounce back has been caused by people getting over the initial panic and realising that any actual change won't happen for more than two years. In the mean time, the UK stock market wasn't over-valued prior to the referendum at all and the weakened Pound helps exporters, so in the short term there is literally no bad news.

Prominent UK politicians have stated that they want to stay in the single market, but they want to control immigration. The EU have emphatically stated that there is no access to the single market without free movement of people, so basically UK politicians have to back down on one of their two demands.

If the UK turns its back on the single market, no one really knows what will happen. New deals could be better for the UK or could be worse, but several businesses have stated they would reduce UK operations if this happened so the bare minimum would be short term pain for investors into the UK. 

If the UK settles on a Norway type deal, with access to the single market and unrestricted immigration, then this is literally business as usual for the UK and this whole painful, volatile process will not have changed a damn thing. If this happens, there will be a huge backlash from the public who voted for leave. I'm not thinking riots here, but civil unrest is possible.

My personal opinion is that the UK will end up in the EEA, which is the best outcome for businesses/investors. This will happen because UK politicians will be able to "save face" by blaming the EU for being "unwilling to negotiate" on immigration where as leaving the single market will mean that dismantling the UK (with Scotland and Northern Ireland going their own way) will always be the current crop of politicians legacy, with no one to blame but themselves.

The worst possible outcome, in my opinion, would be a second referendum where the public are asked to choose between the two options I listed above. This would be spineless of the politicians (who are getting paid large salaries to make the difficult decisions on our behalf) and I think the British public has already proven over the last week that they can't be trusted to make a decision in their own best interests.     



Chargem

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #164 on: June 29, 2016, 12:57:43 PM »
Accoeding to the Brexit movie, of the top 10 trade "partners" nations to Britian, only 2 ere in the EU.

Collectively the EU is the biggest trading partner of the UK, and this is how it should be considered because outside of the EU, the UK would have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a collective, rather than being able to deal with individual countries.

Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

Kaspian

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #165 on: June 29, 2016, 01:07:02 PM »
Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

It's a propaganda piece put together by the Leave campaign, but as long as you keep that in mind throughout, it has a few very good points.  It's certainly not weighted fairly.

MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #166 on: June 29, 2016, 01:12:06 PM »
Accoeding to the Brexit movie, of the top 10 trade "partners" nations to Britian, only 2 ere in the EU.

Collectively the EU is the biggest trading partner of the UK, and this is how it should be considered because outside of the EU, the UK would have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a collective, rather than being able to deal with individual countries.

Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

It's obviously a pro-leave propaganda piece, but it is well done.  Sure, the UK will have to have a trade deal with the EU, but so what?  The EU is a sinking ship economically, the UK just looks like the first lifeboat to launch to me.  I'd wager Poland pushes the same direction in due course, since the recent announcement of the EU leadership's intention to accelerate towards an EU superstate.

Kaspian

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #167 on: June 29, 2016, 01:23:25 PM »
Given $1 million but told I had to invest in two of the following:  Switzerland, UK, and/or EU, you can be damn certain I wouldn't put my money on the EU.  (Even despite the London Whale thing.)  This whole idea about multi-nationals and banks uprooting from the UK to move to Europe, I believe will happen in reverse.  You'd have to be crazy to move your money from London to Brussels.

You response has nothing to do with the text you quoted from me. Comparing Switzerland to the UK makes no sense since they are not similar economies. That has nothing to do with whether or not I would invest in one or the other.

Seriously, are you trolling me today?  Just because they have different economies (I never said they had identical economies, so WTF?) are you saying UK's won't succeed because the other is different?  It's not a fair comparison?  Switzerland's can easily succeed while the (London) financial sector, agriculture, and goods/serices won't?  It's not fair to compare counties?  For God's sakes you could say that about any two on earth.  I really don't understand your argument here. 
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 01:32:49 PM by Kaspian »

nobodyspecial

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #168 on: June 29, 2016, 01:34:22 PM »
Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

Are they going to do a sequel now ?

Starring  Hugh Grant as Cameron, Daniel Craig as Farage ...... and Beeker from the muppets as Boris.

 

Chargem

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #169 on: June 29, 2016, 01:40:23 PM »
Accoeding to the Brexit movie, of the top 10 trade "partners" nations to Britian, only 2 ere in the EU.

Collectively the EU is the biggest trading partner of the UK, and this is how it should be considered because outside of the EU, the UK would have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a collective, rather than being able to deal with individual countries.

Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

It's obviously a pro-leave propaganda piece, but it is well done.  Sure, the UK will have to have a trade deal with the EU, but so what?  The EU is a sinking ship economically, the UK just looks like the first lifeboat to launch to me.  I'd wager Poland pushes the same direction in due course, since the recent announcement of the EU leadership's intention to accelerate towards an EU superstate.

I guess the "so what" would be that the EU countries who do no trade with the UK, who have nothing to gain from a trade friendly deal,  would have a lot of say in the negotiations. Plus, the general feeling is that offering the UK too friendly trade terms would just give incentives to other countries to leave.

The EU is definitely a flawed organisation, but it's hard to argue that it hasn't benefited the UK. If the EU is a sinking ship, that's bad news for the UK (whether the UK is inside the EU or not). 


Chargem

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #170 on: June 29, 2016, 01:44:53 PM »
Given $1 million but told I had to invest in two of the following:  Switzerland, UK, and/or EU, you can be damn certain I wouldn't put my money on the EU.  (Even despite the London Whale thing.)  This whole idea about multi-nationals and banks uprooting from the UK to move to Europe, I believe will happen in reverse.  You'd have to be crazy to move your money from London to Brussels.

You response has nothing to do with the text you quoted from me. Comparing Switzerland to the UK makes no sense since they are not similar economies. That has nothing to do with whether or not I would invest in one or the other.

Seriously, are you trolling me today?  Just because they have different economies (I never said they had identical economies, so WTF?) are you saying UK's won't succeed because the other is different?  It's not a fair comparison?  Switzerland's can easily succeed while the (London) financial sector, agriculture, and goods/serices won't?  It's not fair to compare counties?  For God's sakes you could say that about any two on earth.  I really don't understand your argument here.

The difference between the UK and Switzerland is that Switzerland was willing to accept free movement of EU citizens, where as a key "promise" of the leave campaign was the ability to restrict immigration if the UK leaves the EU.

I agree with you that if the UK accepts free movement of EU citizens, like Switzerland does, then there's no reason it cannot be successful like Switzerland is, if for different reasons.

Trevor Reznik

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #171 on: June 29, 2016, 02:30:30 PM »
if the UK accepts free movement of EU citizens, like Switzerland does, then there's no reason it cannot be successful like Switzerland is, if for different reasons.

Is Switzerland forced to dole out welfare payments to these free moving EU citizens?

Scandium

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #172 on: June 29, 2016, 02:40:39 PM »
Accoeding to the Brexit movie, of the top 10 trade "partners" nations to Britian, only 2 ere in the EU.

Collectively the EU is the biggest trading partner of the UK, and this is how it should be considered because outside of the EU, the UK would have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a collective, rather than being able to deal with individual countries.

Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

It's obviously a pro-leave propaganda piece, but it is well done.  Sure, the UK will have to have a trade deal with the EU, but so what?  The EU is a sinking ship economically, the UK just looks like the first lifeboat to launch to me.  I'd wager Poland pushes the same direction in due course, since the recent announcement of the EU leadership's intention to accelerate towards an EU superstate.

I was curious about this so did some googling. Not sure it's the same, but most end up with a made-up quote from an EU founder (Monnet) from 70 years go being circulated in anti-EU conspiracy circles. Unless you have other quotes I'll file this under bullshit.. Marie Le Pen is the EU parliament, is she part of this conspiracy/superstate plan?

onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #173 on: June 29, 2016, 02:44:10 PM »
if the UK accepts free movement of EU citizens, like Switzerland does, then there's no reason it cannot be successful like Switzerland is, if for different reasons.

Is Switzerland forced to dole out welfare payments to these free moving EU citizens?

I think that's a pretty overblown concern that they've already backpedaled on: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11255425/How-much-do-immigrants-really-claim-in-benefits.html 2.5% of claimants are non-British EU nationals.  More than 90% are British.

But yes, Switzerland also gives working-age welfare benefits to EU citizens who are employed there.  It looks like maybe 3.1% of EU workers in CH get benefits. http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/free-movement-of-workers_eu-migrants-seen-as-social-system-freeloaders/37835956


MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #174 on: June 29, 2016, 03:01:54 PM »
Accoeding to the Brexit movie, of the top 10 trade "partners" nations to Britian, only 2 ere in the EU.

Collectively the EU is the biggest trading partner of the UK, and this is how it should be considered because outside of the EU, the UK would have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a collective, rather than being able to deal with individual countries.

Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

It's obviously a pro-leave propaganda piece, but it is well done.  Sure, the UK will have to have a trade deal with the EU, but so what?  The EU is a sinking ship economically, the UK just looks like the first lifeboat to launch to me.  I'd wager Poland pushes the same direction in due course, since the recent announcement of the EU leadership's intention to accelerate towards an EU superstate.

I was curious about this so did some googling. Not sure it's the same, but most end up with a made-up quote from an EU founder (Monnet) from 70 years go being circulated in anti-EU conspiracy circles. Unless you have other quotes I'll file this under bullshit.. Marie Le Pen is the EU parliament, is she part of this conspiracy/superstate plan?

I tried to post this already, but it vanished into the ether...

First two results from "eu calls for eu superstate"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662827/Has-Britain-avoided-European-superstate-France-Germany-draw-plans-morph-EU-countries-one-control-members-armies-economies.html

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Quote
Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels.


Scandium

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #175 on: June 29, 2016, 03:07:42 PM »
Accoeding to the Brexit movie, of the top 10 trade "partners" nations to Britian, only 2 ere in the EU.

Collectively the EU is the biggest trading partner of the UK, and this is how it should be considered because outside of the EU, the UK would have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a collective, rather than being able to deal with individual countries.

Also, I didn't know there was a Brexit movie?

It's obviously a pro-leave propaganda piece, but it is well done.  Sure, the UK will have to have a trade deal with the EU, but so what?  The EU is a sinking ship economically, the UK just looks like the first lifeboat to launch to me.  I'd wager Poland pushes the same direction in due course, since the recent announcement of the EU leadership's intention to accelerate towards an EU superstate.

I was curious about this so did some googling. Not sure it's the same, but most end up with a made-up quote from an EU founder (Monnet) from 70 years go being circulated in anti-EU conspiracy circles. Unless you have other quotes I'll file this under bullshit.. Marie Le Pen is the EU parliament, is she part of this conspiracy/superstate plan?

I tried to post this already, but it vanished into the ether...

First two results from "eu calls for eu superstate"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662827/Has-Britain-avoided-European-superstate-France-Germany-draw-plans-morph-EU-countries-one-control-members-armies-economies.html

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Quote
Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels.

Those articles were basically the same.. And from highly dubious rags (and know anti-EU). I didn't see any reference or link to this proposal from DE/FR ministers. Has it been revealed yet? It said it was imminent.. Please link to it once it's out.

Scandium

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #176 on: June 29, 2016, 03:09:28 PM »
if the UK accepts free movement of EU citizens, like Switzerland does, then there's no reason it cannot be successful like Switzerland is, if for different reasons.

Is Switzerland forced to dole out welfare payments to these free moving EU citizens?

As EU migrants are a net financial benefit to the UK isn't' this a bit of a moot point?

MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #177 on: June 29, 2016, 03:12:06 PM »
Those articles were basically the same.. And from highly dubious rags (and know anti-EU).

I woudn't know, nor care, how biased these sources may be.  That said, this is what came up.  Your google-fu appears lacking.
Quote

 I didn't see any reference or link to this proposal from DE/FR ministers. Has it been revealed yet? It said it was imminent.. Please link to it once it's out.

I have no idea.  And no, I won't bother to link to it, ever.  Try harder.

Chargem

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #178 on: June 29, 2016, 03:13:18 PM »
if the UK accepts free movement of EU citizens, like Switzerland does, then there's no reason it cannot be successful like Switzerland is, if for different reasons.

Is Switzerland forced to dole out welfare payments to these free moving EU citizens?

Onlykelsey has already responded very well to this, but I want to add that numerous credible studies have shown that immigrants in the UK are net contributors to society (they pay more in taxes than they take back out by using public services). There's also no credible argument that immigration is somehow muscling UK citizens out of jobs, when unemployment is at 20+ year lows.

I mean no offense Trevor, but this is exactly why EU membership should not have been put to a public vote. There's a lot of misinformation out there and it's not the public's job to sort fact from fiction and make the best decision for the UK, that's what UK politicians are paid 3 times the average UK salary per year to do.


MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #179 on: June 29, 2016, 03:21:25 PM »
if the UK accepts free movement of EU citizens, like Switzerland does, then there's no reason it cannot be successful like Switzerland is, if for different reasons.

Is Switzerland forced to dole out welfare payments to these free moving EU citizens?

Onlykelsey has already responded very well to this, but I want to add that numerous credible studies have shown that immigrants in the UK are net contributors to society (they pay more in taxes than they take back out by using public services). There's also no credible argument that immigration is somehow muscling UK citizens out of jobs, when unemployment is at 20+ year lows.

I mean no offense Trevor, but this is exactly why EU membership should not have been put to a public vote. There's a lot of misinformation out there and it's not the public's job to sort fact from fiction and make the best decision for the UK, that's what UK politicians are paid 3 times the average UK salary per year to do.

Um, you don't believe in democracy, then?  There is no evidence that the brexit voting results were primarily due to concerns about immigration, either.  Democracy is dependent upon the idea that the majority of the public is fairly well educated in the issues of the times, and that they will weight the many concerns before coming to a decision.  I'd say this is more likely to have been the real outcome of a referendum that was projected very far in advance, was the product of so much public discussion, and the only issue on the ballot at the time (I think).  The idea that the elderly voters in Britain are just racists sounds like nonsense to me.  I would be more inclined to assume that the youth were naive and ignorant, and that the elderly were voting based upon experience.

Trevor Reznik

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #180 on: June 29, 2016, 03:27:36 PM »
Calm people!  You can still have immigration without free movement of people.  Here in Australia there is no free movement of people, but we  have plenty of immigration.  But it's immigration that we can control, we get to decide who comes here and who gets turned away at the gates.  I can't imagine living in a country like Germany where tens of thousands are rolling in and rapidly changing the demographics in quick time, that kind of social upheaval is dangerous for all, reference mass rapes and other crimes.

I think the older folk in Britain who voted to Brexit saw what is happening in Europe and decided they didn't want a part of it anymore.  The fact that unfettered immigration may be good for GDP or Net National Income or whatever other figure is not what they were worried about, they are worried about feeling safe in their homes and on their streets.

onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #181 on: June 29, 2016, 03:33:23 PM »
Calm people!  You can still have immigration without free movement of people.  Here in Australia there is no free movement of people, but we  have plenty of immigration.  But it's immigration that we can control, we get to decide who comes here and who gets turned away at the gates.  I can't imagine living in a country like Germany where tens of thousands are rolling in and rapidly changing the demographics in quick time, that kind of social upheaval is dangerous for all, reference mass rapes and other crimes.

I think the older folk in Britain who voted to Brexit saw what is happening in Europe and decided they didn't want a part of it anymore.  The fact that unfettered immigration may be good for GDP or Net National Income or whatever other figure is not what they were worried about, they are worried about feeling safe in their homes and on their streets.

I don't disagree with your analysis in the second paragraph necessarily, but all exiting the EU did was allow them to keep EU citizens out (a small subset of immigrants in the UK, and I think not the group that generally makes people uncomfortable).  I imagine making it harder for EU citizens will also make international employers of EU citizens, Australians, Canadians, etc slightly less interested in the UK, so you might also cut down on the number of white-collar internationals.   The UK was already not a member of Schengen, and I can't imagine they will now want to be. 

I'm also not sure if the fear of unfettered immigration and its effects is a good explanation.  When you superimpose a map of where there are heavy immigrant populations with a map of support among Brits for Brexit, it's almost an inverse relationship (although Birmingham seems to be an exception). 

retiringearly

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #182 on: June 29, 2016, 03:35:22 PM »
I think the markets will adjust and British companies and other multi-national companies invested in England will -- as usual -- find a way of arbitraging the situation to their advantage.  They'll just take their investment elsewhere.  I think the markets will continue to hiccup due to the uncertainty in the short term, but this isn't what I'd call a bubble.

But the British economy and British people themselves?  Screwed, I think, unfortunately... until trade deals and stabilization plans can be worked out.

I think there's a very, very high chance Britain will come out of this smelling like an English rose.  Switzerland isn't in the EU and they're rocking the economy in that country hardcore.  Would you (as South Korea, Japan, the USA) rather deal with Britain directly or have to go through all the EU bullshit rules?  Trade agreements aren't even necessary in most cases.  I believe the cost of imported goods will come down drastically there and there will be way more selling opportunities for the Isles.  It may take 3-5 years, but cutting out the middle-man may prove to be a very wise decision.

Even on a personal level--I have no qualms about placing an eBay order to someone from England, but Romania, Portugal, or Latvia?!  I raise an eyebrow and generally look for another seller.  The UK has a trustworthy trade reputation not shared with with some of the countries on the continent.
I agree 100%.  The UK will benefit, the EU will suffer.   My guess is that other EU member countries will follow the UK's lead out the door.

nobodyspecial

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #183 on: June 29, 2016, 03:46:20 PM »
Um, you don't believe in democracy, then?
Having seen congress and the republican primeries?

Should the Fed reserve rate be subject to congress voting? Or should it be set by a direct referendum?
Now we have the technology to make online twitter/web voting cheap and easy we could make the change in the interest rate the result of a national vote every month

Chargem

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #184 on: June 29, 2016, 03:55:20 PM »
if the UK accepts free movement of EU citizens, like Switzerland does, then there's no reason it cannot be successful like Switzerland is, if for different reasons.

Is Switzerland forced to dole out welfare payments to these free moving EU citizens?

Onlykelsey has already responded very well to this, but I want to add that numerous credible studies have shown that immigrants in the UK are net contributors to society (they pay more in taxes than they take back out by using public services). There's also no credible argument that immigration is somehow muscling UK citizens out of jobs, when unemployment is at 20+ year lows.

I mean no offense Trevor, but this is exactly why EU membership should not have been put to a public vote. There's a lot of misinformation out there and it's not the public's job to sort fact from fiction and make the best decision for the UK, that's what UK politicians are paid 3 times the average UK salary per year to do.

Um, you don't believe in democracy, then?  There is no evidence that the brexit voting results were primarily due to concerns about immigration, either.  Democracy is dependent upon the idea that the majority of the public is fairly well educated in the issues of the times, and that they will weight the many concerns before coming to a decision.  I'd say this is more likely to have been the real outcome of a referendum that was projected very far in advance, was the product of so much public discussion, and the only issue on the ballot at the time (I think).  The idea that the elderly voters in Britain are just racists sounds like nonsense to me.  I would be more inclined to assume that the youth were naive and ignorant, and that the elderly were voting based upon experience.

You're missing my point, I didn't mention racism at all. If people believe that immigrants are a cost to society, they believe they are voting on an economic reason. It's perfectly reasonable to vote based on an economic reason, it just so happens they were voting on bad information.

People who voted for leave primarily did so for three reasons: Immigration reasons, Economic reasons and Sovereignty reasons. The sad fact is that the leave campaigners clearly over promised what they could deliver on probably all of these issues, which is why its so interesting to see what happens now.

And to answer your question, yes I believe in democracy. The system of democratically elected officials making decisions on behalf of those who elected them is somehow undemocratic?


Trevor Reznik

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #185 on: June 29, 2016, 04:00:34 PM »
And to answer your question, yes I believe in democracy. The system of democratically elected officials making decisions on behalf of those who elected them is somehow undemocratic?

In the EU the people who make the decisions are not democratically elected.  The EU is the complete opposite of democracy.

MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #186 on: June 29, 2016, 04:01:33 PM »

And to answer your question, yes I believe in democracy. The system of democratically elected officials making decisions on behalf of those who elected them is somehow undemocratic?

No, not undemocratic, per se.  But everything is relative, isn't it?  My understanding is that the Swiss vote directly on just about everything, while the actual leadership in the EU isn't voted upon by any of the members' populations at all.  There might be plenty of voting occurring, but that isn't what I'd call a representative democracy.  Perhaps the brexit wasn't about economic arguments at all, but simply that many voters saw that they didn't vote for their own representation in the EU anymore, and didn't like where that trend was taking them.  So far, we are all speculating on the reasons, but the reasons matter little.

onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #187 on: June 29, 2016, 04:03:07 PM »
Um, you don't believe in democracy, then?
Having seen congress and the republican primeries?

Should the Fed reserve rate be subject to congress voting? Or should it be set by a direct referendum?
Now we have the technology to make online twitter/web voting cheap and easy we could make the change in the interest rate the result of a national vote every month

I think there is a good reason we don't have direct democracy.  Hell, direct democracy in my 12-unit building is an absolute shitshow.

MoonShadow

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #188 on: June 29, 2016, 05:09:44 PM »
Um, you don't believe in democracy, then?
Having seen congress and the republican primeries?

Should the Fed reserve rate be subject to congress voting? Or should it be set by a direct referendum?
Now we have the technology to make online twitter/web voting cheap and easy we could make the change in the interest rate the result of a national vote every month

I think there is a good reason we don't have direct democracy.  Hell, direct democracy in my 12-unit building is an absolute shitshow.

Ah, but I didn't say that I was in favor of democracy.  I'm a libertarian, or to be precise, I'm a volunteerist.  I favor decentralization of political power as a general rule, but democracy isn't a worthy end goal unto itself.  Direct democracy works well, so long as the voting members have a common culture and interests.  I would say this describes the Swiss rather well, but that they are the exception rather than the rule.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #189 on: June 30, 2016, 09:28:20 AM »
It's interesting that the market dropped something like 5% over this over 2 days.

Now, 3 days later we are back to where we were the day before the "pre-brexit-rally" and only a measly 1.5% away from being on top of the rally.

Jack

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #190 on: June 30, 2016, 09:36:22 AM »
It's interesting that the market dropped something like 5% over this over 2 days.

Now, 3 days later we are back to where we were the day before the "pre-brexit-rally" and only a measly 1.5% away from being on top of the rally.

Yep. I bought VEURX on Monday because it was so depressed; now it's already rebounded so much I'm thinking of just taking my profits and swapping it out for my normal VTSAX or VTIAX. (I haven't bothered to check yet if Vanguard has any trading restrictions that would prevent me from doing that.)

Livewell

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #191 on: June 30, 2016, 10:41:05 AM »
Folks, consider today a gift....you can still get out of the stock markets and into gold before the next, much larger down leg of what is going to be the greatest recession we have ever seen.

*slaps self*

Sarcastically quoting Peter Schiff?  Never a bad day to buy gold for a gold bug.

I think what everyone figured out is impact on US stocks is very limited, however it will likely have an impact on fed thinking about interest rates...that angle of return to "normal" rates just got shallower.

Someday there will be a bigger downturn that will have Schiff and Rodgers and all the other bears on TV, best to ignore all the roaring.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2016, 10:51:01 AM by Livewell »

onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #192 on: June 30, 2016, 10:44:34 AM »
Folks, consider today a gift....you can still get out of the stock markets and into gold before the next, much larger down leg of what is going to be the greatest recession we have ever seen.

*slaps self*

Sarcastically quoting Peter Schiff?  Never a bad day to buy gold for a good bug.

I think what everyone figured out is impact on US stocks is very limited, however it will likely have an impact on fed thinking about interest rates...that angle of return to "normal" rates just got shallower.

Someday there will be a bigger downturn that will have Schiff and Rodgers and all the other bears on TV, best to ignore all the roaring.

Yeah, I'm realizing my window for refinancing may have just been extended, which is nice.

dougules

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #193 on: June 30, 2016, 11:10:37 AM »
Interesting how all the talk here is about the UK or Britain when it may end up being more about England and Wales. 

NESailor

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #194 on: June 30, 2016, 11:17:28 AM »
And to answer your question, yes I believe in democracy. The system of democratically elected officials making decisions on behalf of those who elected them is somehow undemocratic?

In the EU the people who make the decisions are not democratically elected.  The EU is the complete opposite of democracy.

This is also an often referenced reason for the Leave campaign.  But isn't it also true that while unelected admins may propose and craft rules - they are voted on by the democratically elected EU parliament and any big changes have to be ratified by the parliaments of member nations?

Of course claiming that some overpaid career administrator in Brussels decides on my behalf is a lot more unnerving.

Chargem

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #195 on: June 30, 2016, 11:43:02 AM »
Interesting how all the talk here is about the UK or Britain when it may end up being more about England and Wales.

This whole thing may end up being more about Europe, if this prompts other countries to consider leaving the EU.

And to answer your question, yes I believe in democracy. The system of democratically elected officials making decisions on behalf of those who elected them is somehow undemocratic?

In the EU the people who make the decisions are not democratically elected.  The EU is the complete opposite of democracy.

This is also an often referenced reason for the Leave campaign.  But isn't it also true that while unelected admins may propose and craft rules - they are voted on by the democratically elected EU parliament and any big changes have to be ratified by the parliaments of member nations?

Of course claiming that some overpaid career administrator in Brussels decides on my behalf is a lot more unnerving.

You are correct, MEP's are democratically elected and the UK has something like 70 MEP's representing their interests in European Parliament. Yet another case of misinformation bandied about in the lead up to the referendum.

capitalninja

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #196 on: June 30, 2016, 11:44:16 AM »
So much for the world coming to an end after Brexit. :-) The sale only lasted 2 days.

dougules

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #197 on: June 30, 2016, 11:51:13 AM »
Interesting how all the talk here is about the UK or Britain when it may end up being more about England and Wales.

This whole thing may end up being more about Europe, if this prompts other countries to consider leaving the EU.


What happens to the rest of the EU will probably depend on how things go in the UK.  If Scotland and Northern Ireland show unwavering support for the EU and the English economy tanks, it may make the rest of the EU even more cohesive.  If the UK stays intact and does well (or at least less bad than the rest of Europe), I think it's much more likely the EU could disintegrate. 

johnstein

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #198 on: June 30, 2016, 11:58:18 AM »
What I dont get is all the bullish sentiments today and the last few days.  Brit is still leaving EU and our economy didnt get a whole lot better since last week.  I am seeing nothing but downside from here. 

Oh, Puerto Rico just said they're going to default on their debt, but nobody seem to care.

onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #199 on: June 30, 2016, 12:07:56 PM »
Interesting how all the talk here is about the UK or Britain when it may end up being more about England and Wales.

If you look at some of the other threads, there is discussion of Scotland and NI, as well.  Agree that even if UK benefits from this exit, it may cease to be the UK (unless england and wales counts?)