Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 44480 times)

frugledoc

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Brexit
« on: June 22, 2016, 02:16:28 PM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596250

These guys don't realise whatever outcome is already priced in.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 02:32:01 PM »
What's priced in is the market's expectation of the probability of each outcome, saying something like "given that we think Britain has a 60% chance of remaining in the EU, this is what we think the price should be."

If the polls were predicting a landslide one way or another I might say that the first trading day after the referendum should be pretty boring because the vote just confirmed what everyone else already thought and had acted on in their previous trading decisions.

However in this case the polls I've seen show that each outcome is reasonably likely, so the voting results are likely to affect prices a bit. It's the difference between "60% chance" (or whatever probability) and "certain."

PhysicianOnFIRE

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2016, 09:15:35 PM »
Seattlecyclone makes a good point. It's like that whenever the Fed gets together and announces a rate hike or not.

If it's expected to announce a rate hike and does, the markets respond somewhat negatively because there was still a chance they wouldn't hike the rate.

If the Brexit doesn't happen, I expect the markets will react positively, because right now, there's a possibility that the UK will exit the EU. The current pricing is based on the likelihood of the possible outcomes, but not the certainty of one or the other.

It will be interesting to see what happens!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2016, 07:04:56 PM »
Leave is coming on strong. Markets could be ugly tomorrow!

seattlecyclone

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2016, 07:09:57 PM »
Be aware that the first to report results are generally the areas with smaller populations, which may have different opinions from the areas with larger populations. I'm interested to see what they decide!

Cyaphas

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2016, 07:14:25 PM »
Be aware that the first to report results are generally the areas with smaller populations, which may have different opinions from the areas with larger populations. I'm interested to see what they decide!

I agree. I think you'll see a lot more nationalism (leave) in the rural areas than you will see in more populated areas, that benefit more directly from the EU. I imagine the big population centers are going to vote heavily in staying.

former player

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2016, 07:16:01 PM »
Storms and flooding in London so the turnout there is down.

onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2016, 07:16:40 PM »
Be aware that the first to report results are generally the areas with smaller populations, which may have different opinions from the areas with larger populations. I'm interested to see what they decide!

I agree. I think you'll see a lot more nationalism (leave) in the rural areas than you will see in more populated areas, that benefit more directly from the EU. I imagine the big population centers are going to vote heavily in staying.

I wonder if the youth vote tends to be highly urban in Britain, as well.  It looks like under 40s are heavy remain, and over 65s are heavy leave.

FIRE47

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2016, 07:20:35 PM »
Looks like it's going to be a leave at this point - probly 2-3% down in the us 4-5% in Europe if these futures and currency moves are any indication. Yuck.

Tester

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2016, 07:25:27 PM »
Just a source for live counting where you can see the regional votes on the map:

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

I am also looking as I earn USD now and have mortgage in EUR :).
And I plan to visit home this winter, I hope EU will still be there for a while.

onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2016, 07:31:10 PM »
Looks like it's going to be a leave at this point - probly 2-3% down in the us 4-5% in Europe if these futures and currency moves are any indication. Yuck.

Hm... I have no direct dog in this fight, and i'm sure I"m biased, but my bet would be this going the way of the Scottish independence vote.  People get cold feet when they stare it down.  I think the psycho who killed Jo Cox last week probably helped the "remain" vote, honestly.

FIRE47

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2016, 07:38:20 PM »
Looks like it's going to be a leave at this point - probly 2-3% down in the us 4-5% in Europe if these futures and currency moves are any indication. Yuck.

Hm... I have no direct dog in this fight, and i'm sure I"m biased, but my bet would be this going the way of the Scottish independence vote.  People get cold feet when they stare it down.  I think the psycho who killed Jo Cox last week probably helped the "remain" vote, honestly.

That's what it looked like and what most people probably thought I'm just going by the live results- only about a 3% chance of remain some saying now.


onlykelsey

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2016, 07:42:03 PM »
Looks like it's going to be a leave at this point - probly 2-3% down in the us 4-5% in Europe if these futures and currency moves are any indication. Yuck.

Hm... I have no direct dog in this fight, and i'm sure I"m biased, but my bet would be this going the way of the Scottish independence vote.  People get cold feet when they stare it down.  I think the psycho who killed Jo Cox last week probably helped the "remain" vote, honestly.

That's what it looked like and what most people probably thought I'm just going by the live results- only about a 3% chance of remain some saying now.



Oh, so I guess the results coming in (although they are more pro-remain) are from areas they expected to be heavily pro-remain, so the remain vote is underperforming?  Interesting.

Cyaphas

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2016, 07:54:06 PM »
This is really exciting. I don't think many people realize how important this vote is.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2016, 09:08:34 PM »
This is really exciting. I don't think many people realize how important this vote is.

This is nuts. It's easily the most impactful result of the nationalistic and populist strain cutting through the western world, at least until/unless Trump somehow wins.

whodidntante

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2016, 09:15:31 PM »
This is really exciting. I don't think many people realize how important this vote is.

This is nuts. It's easily the most impactful result of the nationalistic and populist strain cutting through the western world, at least until/unless Trump somehow wins.

The pound is getting murdered right now.  The market was expecting remain.  Tomorrow might be interesting. 

former player

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2016, 09:50:24 PM »
BBC now predicting a leave vote.

z6_esb

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2016, 09:52:37 PM »
anyone have any cash sitting on the sidelines buying stocks or forex right now?

maizeman

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2016, 10:00:33 PM »
Japanese stock market is down almost 7% over 8% already.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 10:08:49 PM by maizeman »

z6_esb

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2016, 10:03:55 PM »
Japanese stock market is down almost 7% already.

Geez...if I place a buy for Total Stock Market Index Admiral (VTSAX)  now  will I get tomorrow's end of day price?

Heckler

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2016, 10:05:07 PM »
anyone have any cash sitting on the sidelines buying stocks or forex right now?

$4k, trying to buy Canada low tomorrow that I just contributed last week.    Also $15k that I sold on Tuesday (@$25.04 for equivalent ETF I plan to buy) and transferred from my higher fee work plan to my self directed ETFs - both EAFE indexes.  It's exciting to know I might be able to sell high, buy low for once - we'll see. 
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 10:11:17 PM by Heckler »

iamlindoro

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2016, 10:14:02 PM »
Geez...if I place a buy for Total Stock Market Index Admiral (VTSAX)  now  will I get tomorrow's end of day price?

Yes.

z6_esb

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2016, 10:15:32 PM »
Geez...if I place a buy for Total Stock Market Index Admiral (VTSAX)  now  will I get tomorrow's end of day price?

Yes.

Thanks for the prompt response.


Actually, shouldn't I just wait until I see what the market actually does then put a buy in since I get the Close Price tomorrow anyway?

flyersman

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2016, 10:20:42 PM »
I have $100k ready tomorrow to invest.

Bought $50k FSTVX last week and have been waiting for this?

If market tanks would you out the full $100k into total us stock (FSTVX) or mix in a total international?

How long do you think a drop will happen for? Few days?
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 10:31:36 PM by flyersman »

brotatochip

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2016, 10:24:54 PM »
I just transferred cash to my brokerage account and will be buying on Tuesday

iamlindoro

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2016, 10:25:13 PM »
Actually, shouldn't I just wait until I see what the market actually does then put a buy in since I get the Close Price tomorrow anyway?

That would be market timing, so my advice would be not to do that.  Buy if you were going to buy anyway.  Tomorrow's closing price tells us nothing about what Monday's might be.  You might buy during a drop tomorrow, only to have the market drop 10% on Monday.  Or it might rebound 5% on Monday.  You have no way of knowing.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2016, 10:31:56 PM »
I have a pretty decent-sized stock vesting event next week. If all the markets go down, great! Less taxable income for me this year! My only request is that my employer's stock goes down a little bit less than the rest of the market so that when I sell to reinvest I'll still come out ahead.

z6_esb

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2016, 10:33:05 PM »
Actually, shouldn't I just wait until I see what the market actually does then put a buy in since I get the Close Price tomorrow anyway?

That would be market timing, so my advice would be not to do that.  Buy if you were going to buy anyway.  Tomorrow's closing price tells us nothing about what Monday's might be.  You might buy during a drop tomorrow, only to have the market drop 10% on Monday.  Or it might rebound 5% on Monday.  You have no way of knowing.

Gotcha, thanks.  I planned to buy and re-balance on Friday the 1st of July so just a week early.  I just don't want this to be the time that I should have bought something...like when Ford Motor Company was at like $1.50 in 2008

effigy98

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2016, 10:37:29 PM »
Golden butterfly, save me!

effigy98

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2016, 10:41:33 PM »
Sounds like there is a chance the EU in general will start breaking up. This would cause a lot more down days. We were due for a crash, 13k by end of summer?

Cyaphas

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #30 on: June 23, 2016, 10:47:34 PM »
Sounds like there is a chance the EU in general will start breaking up. This would cause a lot more down days. We were due for a crash, 13k by end of summer?

The last crash was from US housing debt contagion. I'm not familiar with the EU international debt structure, but I'd be willing to bet that this is going to spark quite a debt contagion. The Central banks don't have any interest rates to drop this time to stimulate the economies. Not only that, what happens to the British pound when they have to re-negotiate every trade contract they have?

fattest_foot

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #31 on: June 23, 2016, 10:48:47 PM »
The pound is getting murdered right now.  The market was expecting remain.  Tomorrow might be interesting.

So does anyone know if it's possible to do some FOREX investing in the Pound with Vanguard?

bacchi

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #32 on: June 23, 2016, 11:00:42 PM »
ES futures are down 5%. It's going to be a rough opening.

Flight to bonds?

I may pick up some VTI and VXUS tomorrow.

maizeman

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #33 on: June 23, 2016, 11:06:43 PM »
Quote
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures plummeted by 5pc in the wee Friday hours on the east coast, hitting overnight limit thresholds and causing trading to be suspended.

I imagine right now people are overreacting to a result no one seemed to expect. Could be an interesting couple of hours/days/weeks until things settle back down though.



chesebert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #34 on: June 23, 2016, 11:17:27 PM »
There are so much that will need to be reviewed and renegotiated in all sectors and industries. Every company in the word with EU/UK business will need to rethink their EU/UK strategy, review and renegotiate (if needed) all their EU/UK agreements and arrangements. Legal dispute will spike for sometime and M&A activities will be down for at least a year or two. The cost of doing business for MNCs has just skyrocketed.   

Forgot to add, companies with businesses in EU and UK will probably need to be restructured given the the rules may become very different for everything between EU and UK - that's a lot of companies...
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 11:20:38 PM by chesebert »

Kaspian

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #35 on: June 23, 2016, 11:52:03 PM »
Haha... This is probably one of the only forums out there where people are licking their to buy.  The rest of the world will be clamouring to sell tomorrow at lows maybe not seen since 2008 or before.  (Who knows?)  Think they'll show news coverage of people waiting in queues to sell their investments and buy gold? (Old stock footage they pull out during things like this, the "fiscal cliff", the Russia/Ukraine thing, and the Portugal debt crisis.) Who are these strange creatures that sell during downturns? 

Sailor Sam

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #36 on: June 23, 2016, 11:55:46 PM »
Haha... This is probably one of the only forums out there where people are licking their to buy.  The rest of the world will be clamouring to sell tomorrow at lows maybe not seen since 2008 or before.  (Who knows?)  Think they'll show news coverage of people waiting in queues to sell their investments and buy gold? (Old stock footage they pull out during things like this, the "fiscal cliff", the Russia/Ukraine thing, and the Portugal debt crisis.) Who are these strange creatures that sell during downturns?

Yes, and I'm betting it might be current footage: buy-gold-searches-soar-500pc-after-britain-votes-to-leave-eu

patrickza

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2016, 12:01:07 AM »
I made a move to sell South African Rand for US$ on Tuesday. The rate then was $1=R14.70, today it's $1=R15.60. Sadly I only had access to one 7th of what I wanted to move, so most of my money caught the express train into the gutter :(

k9

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2016, 02:19:57 AM »
WOOHOO !!

The French stock index went 10% down, and gold went 5% up. Plus, it is payday for me. As you can imagine, this is a wonderful day for my stache. Crazy Mr. Market agreed to buy my gold over its fair price and to sell me stocks below their fair price. Come on, Mr. Market, aren't you supposed to be efficient ? Do you really think today is the end of the world ?

I know a lot of people on this forum loathe gold for psychological reasons, and I can understand that, but seeing days like today, I really don't get why so many people believe in almost-100% stocks and don't even have a substantial portion of bonds. Come on, guys! Today was free-money day!

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN !

Metric Mouse

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marty998

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2016, 04:15:26 AM »
Good on em. I mean seriously... what good has Brussels ever done for the ordinary European citizen?

About time democracy speaks for the average punter.... too much centralised power in unelected bureaucrats

precrime3

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2016, 04:21:16 AM »
I think it was just confirmed, with 51% voting leave according to Google. How will this affect stocks in the short term? Are we going to see a several week/month slump?

Gold is up $100 too, and Bitcoin is down $100. Interesting times.

Davids

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #42 on: June 24, 2016, 04:23:41 AM »
Let the market react today. If anything today and next week will be great times to buy on the dip.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2016, 05:14:55 AM »
I wish I weren't in the middle of a renovation project and paying medical bills so I had more cash to put in. Damn.

mrpercentage

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #44 on: June 24, 2016, 05:30:32 AM »
Our US banks are down around 7% and the market isn't even open yet

k9

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #45 on: June 24, 2016, 05:55:51 AM »
French banks (including Société Générale, a rather very big player) are down more than 20%. In a single day (half-day, actually). That didn't happen often. Maybe during Lehman's fall? I'm not even sure. I love it when markets overreact.

protostache

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #46 on: June 24, 2016, 06:03:20 AM »
I sold the last chunk of FSTVX in my 401(k) account yesterday and captured a few hundred bucks in gains. I had been meaning to anyway to free up cash, this just gives me a pretty clear buying opportunity.

Still going to wait for next week, though. Going by the futures today is going to be terrible and Monday probably won't be much better.

MMMarbleheader

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #47 on: June 24, 2016, 06:44:15 AM »
I have a lot of VASGX, always thought I was over exposed on international. Was going to re balance soon too. Ugh.

Jack

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #48 on: June 24, 2016, 07:00:44 AM »
I've got $5k or so that had been earmarked for paying off a credit card when the 0% rate expires, but now I think I'll do a balance transfer and shove the $5K into the market instead.

(Yeah, I'm timing the market... but the Efficient Market Hypothesis clearly failed on this Really Bad Day, and I'm gonna take advantage of it!)

Anyway, what do y'all think will be the best fund to buy (VTIAX?), and when would be the best time to buy it? (I'm leaning towards today, but would it be better to wait until next week?)

gggggg

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #49 on: June 24, 2016, 07:05:32 AM »
We don't know how deep and far this is going to go, I was initially going to place some limit buy orders (still may), but in the meantime, I'll just keep dollar cost averaging, and re balancing as appropriate.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 07:07:17 AM by dcamnc »