Author Topic: Brexit hedging?  (Read 2136 times)

MarcherLady

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Brexit hedging?
« on: June 15, 2016, 04:23:40 AM »
Are there any other UK investers worried about the impact of a Brexit on their portfolio? Is this a 'stick to the plan' moment, or a black swan?  I have the following UK exposure: 30% Gov bonds, 20% FTSE 100, 20% FTSE 250.  I'm also planning on FIRE in ~4 years, but we have a year's expenses in cash, so wouldn't draw down on holdings until about a year in.   Hmm, my gut feeling is to ride it out, stick to my plan and buy on any downturn to maintain my AA. 

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for a 'Stay' result, but it's looking tight.

mohawkbrah

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Re: Brexit hedging?
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2016, 05:09:13 AM »
hello fellow herefordian!

How much are you diversified globally? i try to only hold about 30-40% total in UK

Sadly there's no telling what would happen to british economy if we leave the EU.

MarcherLady

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Re: Brexit hedging?
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2016, 05:21:34 AM »
Hi, MB, how goes it?   I'm 13% in US (VUSA), 11% in Europe (VERX) and 6% in Far East (VFEM).   All percentages ignore our cash buffer.  If I had more years til FIRE I'd be 100% confident in sticking to my plan, but we're so damn close that I'm concerned we'll run out of time to regain ground lost in a pull back. 

Trevor Reznik

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Re: Brexit hedging?
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2016, 05:01:32 AM »
I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for a 'Stay' result, but it's looking tight.

Why stay?  Look at the billions of taxes you pay to the EU and for what?  So they can impose silly laws and restrictions on your industries set by unaccountable, un-elected bureaucrats each paid hundreds of thousands of pounds per year?

k9

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Re: Brexit hedging?
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2016, 05:12:57 AM »
By definition, it is not a black swan. It is something that has been foreseen by the markets, and current valuations include the idea of a Brexit. If Brexit happens, the markets will go down, a little. If it does not happen, they will go way up.

Stick to the plan. That's for this kind of situation that I'm a proponent of gold (as a European citizen, I have a UK-heavy portfolio, my stock allocation suffered, but my gold allocation compensated the losses, so my net worth actually grew up these last days, and I've been able to buy cheap stocks). But now it's too late to consider it. You had a plan, now would be the worse time to bail out.

MarcherLady

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Re: Brexit hedging?
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2016, 02:16:47 PM »
I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for a 'Stay' result, but it's looking tight.

Why stay?  Look at the billions of taxes you pay to the EU and for what?  So they can impose silly laws and restrictions on your industries set by unaccountable, un-elected bureaucrats each paid hundreds of thousands of pounds per year?

Maternity leave, Paternity leave.  Working time limits that prevent companies taking advantage of employees.  Human rights legislation. Closer ties with our neighbours across the water.  Better links between military and law enforcement agencies allowing them to better protect us.  Freedom of movement between countries.  Free trade. 'Silly' things like that.

An MEP is paid about 75k a year, depending on the Euro to exchange rate.

retiringearly

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Re: Brexit hedging?
« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2016, 02:30:18 PM »
I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for a 'Stay' result, but it's looking tight.

Why stay?  Look at the billions of taxes you pay to the EU and for what?  So they can impose silly laws and restrictions on your industries set by unaccountable, un-elected bureaucrats each paid hundreds of thousands of pounds per year?
I agree 100%

frugledoc

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Re: Brexit hedging?
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2016, 03:49:36 PM »
I haven't decided what to vote for yet but definitely am not concerned from an investment point of view.

I hold a very simple global portfolio which slightly overweight Europe and U.K.

Sentiment is extremely negative at the moment,  which to me means strong buy.  Unfortunately I'm fully invested so can only drip feed smaller amounts.