Author Topic: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trump will increase value  (Read 1339 times)

Linea_Norway

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Bought stock in American marked hoping Trump will increase value
« on: December 21, 2016, 04:30:07 AM »
Some days ago I bought stock in a non-valuta secured index fund on the American marked. Not sure whether that was smart or not, but I am taking a chance. But I hope Trump will manage to do some of what he promised: creating more jobs and making America great again. I hope the index will go up for some time. I am also planning to sell again before the environmental consequences turn against him.

Are there more of the foreigners here who are taking this chance? And what do you Americans think is smart?

Edit: This time I didn't check the marked curve before I bought. Stupid of course. I see that I should have bought them at the election dip in November. Let's hope that index funds go up anyway in the long term.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 09:36:28 AM by Linda_Norway »

matchewed

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trunp will increase value
« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2016, 05:27:20 AM »
The whole concept of investing in index funds is that they go up over the long term. You made a market timing decision on a whim. Not exactly the best choice for investment.

GuitarStv

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trunp will increase value
« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2016, 05:50:07 AM »
A US index is part of my investment strategy.  I invested a certain percentage in US funds before Trump was elected, and I will continue to invest the same percentage after he brings the coming apocalypse.  Chasing potential timing gains under the hopes that my limited information about the world will somehow beat zillions of other investors seems like a fool's errand.

FIRE Artist

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trunp will increase value
« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2016, 06:23:54 AM »
About 30% of my portfolio is US.  It helps inflate my Canadian dollar valuation as our dollar continues to dive.  For that reason I track both USD and CND portfolio valuation, it helps to temper the "oh my god, I'm rich" high when I look at how little the dial has actually moved in the USD value.

talltexan

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trunp will increase value
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2016, 09:00:06 AM »
Indeed American stocks--particularly financials--have decreased because many think corporations will see an increase with profits as Trump's team regulates them with a "light touch".

Equally important, the dollar has increased in value substantially because the American economy appears to be strong enough to support Federal Reseve (Central Bank) interest rate increases. If you want the strength of the dollar without risking it on American companies (which may lose their gains if there's a recession), consider investing in short-term American Treasuries; there's been a jump in yields, so they may appear to be "on sale".

Scandium

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trunp will increase value
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2016, 09:37:43 AM »
This is market timing and a bad idea. The strong dollar and weak Krone means you buy very little US stocks for your money, and a swing the other way (say oil prices go up, or people stop being scared of prospects for norwegian economy) could wipe out any gains. You should be buying US stocks anyway, in a globally diversified portfolio, but not make bets based on "hunches". Especially not ones based populist campaign promises from on a serial-liar like Trump who will say anything to get elected! OMG..

ps; sure less regulation could lead to business growth. But more military bloat, less government spending and cuts to benefits (i.e. money to consumers) could also do the reverse. And historically the economy has gone up more under democrats than republicans, but also the president matter little. http://freakonomics.com/podcast/freakonomics-radio-how-much-does-the-president-really-matter/

talltexan

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trump will increase value
« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2016, 12:03:24 PM »
Nothing that Scandium wrote is unreasonable.

One other thing is that the stock market usually shoots up most in the first 18 months of a Presidential term. So don't stay out of the market if you think that tendency overwhelms some of the others.

Linea_Norway

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trump will increase value
« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2016, 12:44:18 AM »
I talked with med DH about it last night. We have already invested a lot of own money in a Norwegian house. And our pension is in Norwegian money. My DH's goal with foreign investment is now not to make most money, but to gain some assets in different currencies. If the Norwegian crown goes well, our Norwegian money will be worth a lot. It it goes further down, our foreign investments will be worth more. So this is our plan for the long term, trying to spread our assets over more currencies to not be so vulnebly depending on one market.

I invested some money in the American index, with bad timing. And more money in the Asian index. My DH has chosen index funds in other regions.

Scandium

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Re: Bought stock in American marked hoping Trump will increase value
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2016, 07:40:54 AM »
I talked with med DH about it last night. We have already invested a lot of own money in a Norwegian house. And our pension is in Norwegian money. My DH's goal with foreign investment is now not to make most money, but to gain some assets in different currencies. If the Norwegian crown goes well, our Norwegian money will be worth a lot. It it goes further down, our foreign investments will be worth more. So this is our plan for the long term, trying to spread our assets over more currencies to not be so vulnebly depending on one market.

I invested some money in the American index, with bad timing. And more money in the Asian index. My DH has chosen index funds in other regions.

I don't object to you investing in foreign stocks, just to your market timing reasons for doing so now. You should decide on your NOK/Global asset allocation and invest according to that ratio no matter what. You're allocation sounds a bit haphazard with "US because Trump, some in Asia".

I looked into this for a familymember in Norway and found that (in my opinion) the best option is the KLP AksjeVerden indeks fund. It will give you global market cap weighted stocks for a relatively low expense ratio. Considering how tiny and undiversified the Oslo bourse is I recommended not putting much if anything there. DNB also has a decent global index fund.