Author Topic: Bottom is in  (Read 50527 times)

clifp

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #200 on: June 16, 2022, 01:47:36 PM »
I don't think the bottom is in yet, but, with the S&P now -24% from its all time highs, I think we're closer to the bottom, at least in nominal terms, than we are to the top.

It feels like we are halfway there.  I know that these 6 figure-down days are awfully depressing.  I've started looking at writing out of the money on AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, and even FB, but I'm still too scared to pull the trigger. I'm glad I have real estate, and my hard money loans are still being paid, so I"m good shape.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #201 on: June 16, 2022, 02:15:01 PM »
I see, you're taking the 51% drawdown from 2007-2009 and pushing it up to 60%.  Oh well, I hoped there was another professional bearish investor I could check out.  With a 10 year bull market followed by 3 years in which the market doubled... I doubt many bearish investors remain.

I've been bearish since April, which did really well this past week.  I'm tired of following CNBC & Bloomberg TV, and so today I shifted 1/5th of my portfolio from inverse ETFs into cash.  I also suspect many central banks surprising with rate hikes won't happen often, so the news might not be so bad tomorrow or next week.

So maybe we have a local low point today.


What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow, in nominal terms?
Is that in nominal miles per hour or nominal kilometers per hour?
*watches Solon get flung off a bridge by an unseen force*

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #202 on: June 16, 2022, 02:30:56 PM »
I see, you're taking the 51% drawdown from 2007-2009 and pushing it up to 60%.  Oh well, I hoped there was another professional bearish investor I could check out.  With a 10 year bull market followed by 3 years in which the market doubled... I doubt many bearish investors remain.

I was using the SP-500 peak/trough of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007 to 676.53 on March 9, 2009 which I think is more like a 56.7% decline. Of course that's just one "market" and in nominal terms.

I'm not a professional trader or economist but I don't think that there is anything in the history books to compare this market to. We've never had any analogous time to right now in the US or world markets. This is truly unprecedented AFAIK. I would add that we don't know what the ultimate Fed rate would be or even close. I can make an argument that it will top out below 4% and I can make another argument that it will be double digits. Without knowing this we don't know the risk free rate of return, so Į\_(ツ)_/Į. If anyone tells me they know the future this time I will dismiss them out of hand.

EDITed to add - I do however welcome hypotheses. They make me think.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2022, 11:02:19 AM by PDXTabs »

Juan Ponce de Leůn

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #203 on: June 16, 2022, 02:39:50 PM »
Iím hearing 60%.  Plenty of people are saying it.  I donít know if itís going to be 60% but a lot of really astute people say 60%.

Good to hear, this means there will be a bottom very soon.

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #204 on: July 27, 2022, 05:48:40 PM »
So the Fed announced a 75 basis point hike and stonks went up? I'm starting to think that the bottom was indeed in.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #205 on: July 27, 2022, 09:03:23 PM »
So the Fed announced a 75 basis point hike and stonks went up? I'm starting to think that the bottom was indeed in.

Yea, super weird that stocks went up at the open and then basically didnít fluctuate when the actual announcement came out and the risk of a 1% hike was taken off the table. Looks very suspicious to me. A mole might be at the bottom.

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #206 on: September 30, 2022, 10:05:14 PM »
I'm pretty sure that this guy just called the bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILGn8GsNxE

JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #207 on: October 01, 2022, 08:10:48 AM »

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #208 on: October 01, 2022, 09:21:25 AM »

clarkfan1979

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #209 on: October 01, 2022, 07:40:03 PM »
I'm pretty sure that this guy just called the bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILGn8GsNxE

This guy called it first
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

That guy would never let me down.


I do think it is possible to occasionally come across a good company that falls on short-term hard times, make an educated guess on buying near the bottom and ride it up better than the market average. It's very difficult, but I think it's possible.

When talking about timing the entire S & P 500, I don't see how it's possible. Just my personal opinion.

This one is better (IMO).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdkCEioCp24
« Last Edit: October 01, 2022, 07:46:02 PM by clarkfan1979 »

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #210 on: October 17, 2022, 02:31:27 PM »
Bank of America just beat expectations and Brian Moynihan says that the US consumer is in great shape.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #211 on: October 17, 2022, 02:42:37 PM »
I'd take it, we're pulling the plug on two six-figure careers in the next couple of months -_-

Recovery from here sounds nice.

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #212 on: November 10, 2022, 08:48:40 AM »
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day

JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #213 on: November 10, 2022, 08:52:41 AM »
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day

Ouch.  lol

ATtiny85

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #214 on: November 10, 2022, 11:43:00 AM »
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day

Your sacrifice is noted and appreciated.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #215 on: November 10, 2022, 06:57:11 PM »
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day

When is your next contribution scheduled?

Asking for a friend.

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #216 on: November 11, 2022, 10:54:45 AM »
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day

When is your next contribution scheduled?

Asking for a friend.

Next month

Amazing how mr market can screw us all even though we all have different investment schedules!

BicycleB

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #217 on: November 15, 2022, 01:31:07 PM »

Amazing how mr market can screw us all even though we all have different investment schedules!

Mr. Market has superpowers in this regard. I am currently suffering from his perfidious skills.

theolympians

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #218 on: November 21, 2022, 05:36:16 PM »
I am 1-3 years away from retirement. I am socking away as much money as I can afford into my 457plan. Bottom is mostly in!

LightStache

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #219 on: November 26, 2022, 11:39:38 AM »
My dad has been actively investing, poorly, for 40 years now. He told me at Thanksgiving that he's all cash now so the bottom is most certainly in.

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #220 on: November 26, 2022, 10:48:06 PM »
My dad has been actively investing, poorly, for 40 years now. He told me at Thanksgiving that he's all cash now so the bottom is most certainly in.

Checks out.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #221 on: December 05, 2022, 08:09:01 AM »
Is the bottom in?

vand

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #222 on: December 22, 2022, 11:06:57 AM »
Oh dear.
It was all looking so promising just a couple of weeks ago with the Dow at least breaking through the long term downtrend... but that now looks as everything is shot to pieces now and the latest selloff has pushed everything back into "oh shit" territory.


Nasdaq in particular is triggering panic alarms - has violated the supporting trendline pretty early on in the daily cycle, so we should fully expect there to be a retest of the Oct lows and - probably - new lows ahead.




JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #223 on: December 23, 2022, 02:36:16 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

LightStache

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #224 on: December 24, 2022, 07:09:19 AM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...

GuitarStv

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #225 on: December 24, 2022, 06:16:52 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...

I hope so.  The last five years have been uncomfortably bubbly.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #226 on: December 24, 2022, 06:21:23 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.

vand

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #227 on: December 28, 2022, 12:40:58 PM »
2 of the most important bellweathers are flashing here:

Nasdaq composite index and AAPL are both threatening to make new closing lows.

If that happens they will almost certainly lead everything else down to new lows.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #228 on: December 28, 2022, 07:38:07 PM »
CNN's fear & greed index has dropped into "extreme fear" repeatedly this year, as can be seen if you click "timeline" near the top right.  Each one may have been a local bottom - but not "the bottom".
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Weeks ago that indicator showed "greed" and now shows "fear" - but not "extreme fear".  My guess is we'll fall into "extreme fear" again within the next couple months, and hit another local bottom.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #229 on: December 29, 2022, 06:23:47 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.

The bottom isnít in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. Thatís why the market hasnít begun recovering yet.

AnxietyFly

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #230 on: December 31, 2022, 09:11:11 AM »
I think we have about twelve more months of bumpiness before we see recovery.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #231 on: December 31, 2022, 07:43:11 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.

The bottom isnít in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. Thatís why the market hasnít begun recovering yet.

Iím very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #232 on: December 31, 2022, 08:33:47 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.

The bottom isnít in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. Thatís why the market hasnít begun recovering yet.

Iím very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on

Donít do it! Only nine more spots to go.

Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, Iím pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2022, 08:35:30 PM by Wintergreen78 »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #233 on: January 01, 2023, 12:38:39 AM »
I see, you're taking the 51% drawdown from 2007-2009 and pushing it up to 60%.  Oh well, I hoped there was another professional bearish investor I could check out.  With a 10 year bull market followed by 3 years in which the market doubled... I doubt many bearish investors remain.
I was using the SP-500 peak/trough of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007 to 676.53 on March 9, 2009 which I think is more like a 56.7% decline. Of course that's just one "market" and in nominal terms.
Portfolio Visualizer gave me the -50.89% drawdown for Oct 2007 to Feb 2009, but I've since learned they use "month to month" calculations that ignore price moves within a month.  I think your number is accurate, not mine.  But I can't find historical S&P 500 index prices at Yahoo Finance - only ETFs (like SPY).
What data source do you use to view the S&P 500 index prices?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #234 on: January 01, 2023, 09:28:01 AM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.

The bottom isnít in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. Thatís why the market hasnít begun recovering yet.

Iím very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on

Donít do it! Only nine more spots to go.

Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, Iím pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.

Iíll definitely use a burner account then :)

RWD

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #235 on: January 01, 2023, 01:04:51 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.

The bottom isnít in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. Thatís why the market hasnít begun recovering yet.

Iím very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on

Donít do it! Only nine more spots to go.

Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, Iím pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.

Iíll definitely use a burner account then :)

Okay, thorstach

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #236 on: January 01, 2023, 10:37:05 PM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #237 on: January 01, 2023, 10:56:31 PM »
FWIW ďoh shitĒ territory is where I prefer to do my investing

Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.

The bottom isnít in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. Thatís why the market hasnít begun recovering yet.

Iím very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on

Donít do it! Only nine more spots to go.

Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, Iím pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.

Iíll definitely use a burner account then :)

Okay, thorstach

Top is In

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!