I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.
Can’t see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000
From today:
"The U.S. now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than China, making it the country with the largest outbreak in the world."
Also from today:
"It might not feel like it, but a new bull market in stocks is under way—at least by one definition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 23% from recent intraday lows. Will the Covid-19 bull market date to March 26, 2020?"
The market is forward-looking...what if the 'worst case' was already priced in?
I certainly don't know the answer to this...but what I am willing to wager on is that humanity will not only survive, but continue to thrive.
This pretty much happens every time. Ask around I bet you find many people already had the virus. I know the US passed 80,000 but I bet the real number is closer to a million or 10 times what is reported. The more people I talk to I believe it to be true. I was sick in January for 2 days. Fever, chills, cough and out of breath with very little effort. I happen to have a yearly doctors appointment the 3rd day but I had broke the fever and was back to normal. Not 100% but I felt much better where I could do things. and was planning to go to work after my appointment. Doctor tested me for strep at office and took blood work after that strep test proved to be negative. I was told to stay home and away from people as the blood was taken on Friday and results wouldn't be back until Monday. The mono test with the blood work came back negative also. He didn't test for influenza but did asked if I get a shot.
My mom was diagnosed with pneumonia in early February after being tested for influenza. Her boyfriend had coughing and same symptoms of Corona shortly before (both in their 70s). I talked to guys in Detroit that said something spread like a wildfire in their office in January. Same thing many of them didn't go to the doctor but the one that did was told they had an upper respiratory infection.
A co-worker at work same thing. Traveled to Spain in late January after I was sick. Fever, chills cough and "gurgling" while breathing which was labored. Over the shelf medicine and it is was gone in a few days. I have never used cough medicine in my life. In January was the first time I have bought it. Not saying it wasn't bad as I haven't had an ass kicking like that in some years. Probably the last time was when I had Strep over 10 years ago and broke down and went to the doctor when I couldn't kick it in a couple days.
Long story short don't always believe the media as they want to create something that isn't true. Many times they always find all these models are wrong but the media will run with it because big news is their business. More and more times they are finding this to be true. For more on the subject as this isn't anything new:
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124Don't forget heart disease kills over 2000 people a day in the US. If the media really cared they would be working on changing the American diet. Keep your immune system healthy folks as the body is an amazing thing and knows what to do at exactly the right time. I am not saying go around licking door knobs and hand rails as you still have to be smart but I believe this is way overblown much as the study has found happens.