Author Topic: Bottom is in  (Read 37705 times)

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #150 on: March 27, 2020, 02:11:16 PM »
The market took a dive(Dow 700 pts) in the last 30 mins before closing.
I'm guessing the Dow will drop under 20k again next week.
I don't see anything positive coming next week except for more doom and gloom.
Bottom is not in.

wienerdog

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #151 on: March 27, 2020, 02:13:46 PM »
I'm guessing the Dow will drop under 20k again next week.

Sweet!  I am buying for the 401k at the end of the month.

bthewalls

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #152 on: March 27, 2020, 02:35:56 PM »
keep in mind confirmed covid cases are only the fraction of the true cses that recived testing.

Im not sure if the USA is like the UK, but the UK are limiting testing to prevent panic at the TRUE number....they say multiple by 10 at least..

i think market gonna tank twice.

waltworks

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #153 on: March 27, 2020, 04:39:23 PM »
Tanking is fine with me, so long as it comes back eventually/the modern world survives.

And if it doesn't, I won't need all those ones and zeros on Vanguard's server anyway.

I'll buy all the way down!

-W

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #154 on: January 24, 2022, 07:36:42 AM »
Hello darkness my old friend........

waltworks

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #155 on: January 24, 2022, 08:17:07 AM »
Fun necro-thread!

S&P as of today is up 80% from March 2020, for reference (dividends reinvested). And yes, I bought all the way down (and back up) and made out like a bandit.

-W
« Last Edit: January 24, 2022, 08:21:05 AM by waltworks »

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #156 on: January 24, 2022, 08:38:27 AM »
S&P as of today is up 80% from March 2020, for reference (dividends reinvested). And yes, I bought all the way down (and back up) and made out like a bandit.

Me too, and I'm excited to do it again!

waltworks

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #157 on: January 24, 2022, 08:57:59 AM »
I did my annual rebalance right about at the tippy top, too. Dumb luck.

-W

dividendman

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #158 on: January 24, 2022, 09:20:39 AM »
I did my annual rebalance right about at the tippy top, too. Dumb luck.

-W

My semi-annual rebalance isn't until Feb. 20th... so I'm not sure what I'm rooting for.... so confusing!

achvfi

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #159 on: January 24, 2022, 09:46:45 AM »
Luckily I sold half my portfolio end of last year. Plan was to rethink my asset allocation and diversify. Since then I invested most of it back in in last few days trying to catch the falling knife. I still have 10% available to invest.

Is the bottom in yet? :)

dblaace

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #160 on: January 24, 2022, 09:48:39 AM »
I did my annual rebalance right about at the tippy top, too. Dumb luck.

-W
Same here. I moved my 401k to cash in late December in preparation to roll it over to my IRA. I rolled it over last week and am currently 60% cash.

Blender Bender

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #161 on: January 24, 2022, 01:55:09 PM »
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.

dblaace

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #162 on: January 24, 2022, 02:31:03 PM »
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.
Don't worry I'm sure you will get another chance.

"Don't try to catch a falling knife"

American GenX

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #163 on: January 24, 2022, 04:16:01 PM »
I used some dry powder last Friday near the market low, more on small caps than large caps, so with today's close, I'm already up, but I'm sitting on more dry powder.

I've been heavily invested in a stable value fund through work that has paid 3% annually for about 15 years, no admin fees, staying ahead of inflation, but as of this year, after a sudden change a while back, the fund is paying a net 1.36% annually, right when inflation is taking a huge bite out of its value.  So, I'm looking for good buying opportunities to move out.

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #164 on: January 24, 2022, 04:41:54 PM »
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.

Was there a reason for the reversal?  Or just random

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #165 on: January 24, 2022, 04:59:00 PM »
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.

Was there a reason for the reversal?  Or just random

thorstache......just wait

waltworks

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #166 on: January 24, 2022, 09:24:26 PM »
I've been heavily invested in a stable value fund through work that has paid 3% annually for about 15 years, no admin fees, staying ahead of inflation, but as of this year, after a sudden change a while back, the fund is paying a net 1.36% annually, right when inflation is taking a huge bite out of its value.

Wow, that is awful. For 15 years you held onto this fund?

-W

volleyballer

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #167 on: January 25, 2022, 10:56:08 AM »
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective.  I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk


sisto

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #168 on: January 25, 2022, 11:11:55 AM »
I've been doing ROTH conversions as the market is dropping. Seemed like a good time since I was planning to do them anyway and now I will have a full year of growth with no future taxes.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #169 on: January 26, 2022, 11:31:28 AM »
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective.  I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).

vand

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #170 on: January 27, 2022, 03:04:14 AM »
The AAII sentiment survey 23% bulls vs 53% bears is now at level comparable to March/April 2020 and should produce a big rally:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

Investors Intelligence is slightly less bearish, but getting there. Maybe next week it'll move into the contrarian range if things keep going south.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #171 on: January 27, 2022, 01:00:46 PM »
I've been doing ROTH conversions as the market is dropping. Seemed like a good time since I was planning to do them anyway and now I will have a full year of growth with no future taxes.
You have a full year of returns - not necessarily growth.  Since 2009, the worst year for the S&P 500 was -4.5%, which can give an unrealistic impression that the stock market returns are positive every year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance?p=SPY

achvfi

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #172 on: January 28, 2022, 02:56:07 PM »
Luckily I sold half my portfolio end of last year. Plan was to rethink my asset allocation and diversify. Since then I invested most of it back in in last few days trying to catch the falling knife. I still have 10% available to invest.

Is the bottom in yet? :)

Yay Volatility! I followed it all the way down and as per my investment policy when it reached correction territory deployed it all.  I am done for now.

sisto

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #173 on: January 28, 2022, 04:24:23 PM »
I've been doing ROTH conversions as the market is dropping. Seemed like a good time since I was planning to do them anyway and now I will have a full year of growth with no future taxes.
You have a full year of returns - not necessarily growth.  Since 2009, the worst year for the S&P 500 was -4.5%, which can give an unrealistic impression that the stock market returns are positive every year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance?p=SPY
Fair point! I'm being optimistic that the market will continue to grow. I won't be pulling the money out for quite some time so converting when it was low was a good move and I left room in case other such opportunities arise.

volleyballer

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #174 on: January 29, 2022, 11:30:18 AM »
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective.  I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).
I front loaded the Roth on Wednesday.

The rest is beyond my level of investing savvy!


Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk


DaTrill

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #175 on: January 29, 2022, 12:10:18 PM »
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective.  I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).

Front-loading is the only reliable way I've experienced to provide higher returns relative S&P 500 index strategy.  I estimated this a few years ago and portfolio had experienced about 200 bps in positive relative performance related to DCA, but this of course was in after a long bull market. 

Front load every year over your accumulation period (20 years) and your AUM will be significantly and surprisingly higher than DCA.  HR people don't like to see me in December every year as I try to get a 0$ paycheck for the first few months of the year.         

DaTrill

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #176 on: January 29, 2022, 12:15:22 PM »
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.

Was there a reason for the reversal?  Or just random

Short answer is nobody knows.  But if there are short cover rallies and margin calls bring in new money, transfer assets, meet calls, this can all result in late afternoon market rips.  This is why it is incredibly dangerous to short in a bear market and the rallies will rip shorts face off.  This was also the end of the month and many will rebalance before monthly reports are generated. 

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #177 on: January 29, 2022, 05:42:42 PM »
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.

Was there a reason for the reversal?  Or just random

Short answer is nobody knows.  But if there are short cover rallies and margin calls bring in new money, transfer assets, meet calls, this can all result in late afternoon market rips.  This is why it is incredibly dangerous to short in a bear market and the rallies will rip shorts face off.  This was also the end of the month and many will rebalance before monthly reports are generated.

Ah ok, I didnít know if there was actual.. ya knowÖ.. news

vand

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #178 on: January 31, 2022, 01:56:24 AM »
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective.  I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).

Front-loading is the only reliable way I've experienced to provide higher returns relative S&P 500 index strategy.  I estimated this a few years ago and portfolio had experienced about 200 bps in positive relative performance related to DCA, but this of course was in after a long bull market. 

Front load every year over your accumulation period (20 years) and your AUM will be significantly and surprisingly higher than DCA.  HR people don't like to see me in December every year as I try to get a 0$ paycheck for the first few months of the year.       

You're just adding a short term levered position and deleveraging it over a year. Might work most of the time, but that one time the market crashes and you get a little pink slip in your paycheck might undo all those marginal gains.

If you want to run with leverage there are smarter ways to do it imo.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2022, 12:53:19 AM by vand »

Blender Bender

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #179 on: February 01, 2022, 06:20:58 PM »
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.

That moment was this year bottom, so far. I think that it would be 2022 bottom. And I did not buy :) Still better than others selling that day.

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #180 on: May 09, 2022, 11:46:35 AM »
Soooooo

clifp

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #181 on: May 09, 2022, 01:34:54 PM »
The most important lesson I learned about social media and the market bottoms from 1990 and on,  is until 80% of the folks forecast another 10% drop, and 1/2 dozen say screw it and sell everything the bottom is not in.

sisto

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #182 on: May 10, 2022, 10:07:54 AM »
Soooooo
I'm now regretting converting $80K from Traditional to ROTH in January, buy also considering converting even more. My networth has come down significantly, but I didn't panic and sell anything in 2000 or 2008 and don't plan to panic now. I'm going to be getting a lump sum soon and planning to invest most of it in FZROX or VTSAX. Currently my taxable is all in Vanguard and Retirement almost all in Fidelity.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #183 on: May 10, 2022, 10:45:03 AM »
The most important lesson I learned about social media and the market bottoms from 1990 and on,  is until 80% of the folks forecast another 10% drop, and 1/2 dozen say screw it and sell everything the bottom is not in.
That was not the case with the late 2018 correction of 20%.

clifp

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #184 on: May 10, 2022, 12:19:48 PM »
I should have been clearer, I meant bear markets, 2018 was a correction as you point out.  Right now we are on the cusp of a bear market, but we aren't there yet by most measurements. For me VTI would have hit 193% 20% of its peak.

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #185 on: June 15, 2022, 04:12:31 PM »
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #186 on: June 15, 2022, 05:10:01 PM »
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?

I know this thread is mostly jesting, but unlikely.

The average peak to trough for timeline of a bear market as been 16 months, we're currently just a hair over 5.

The average decline from peak to trough has been -39.4%, we closed on roughly -23%.

It's possible, but HIGHLY unlikely.


Heckler

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #187 on: June 15, 2022, 06:01:52 PM »
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?

I just dropped $2500 into my RRSP, destined for the S&P, so... maybe!

Heckler

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #188 on: June 15, 2022, 06:10:52 PM »
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?

although, there have been 22 days YTD with just as much upside, so keep on dreaming.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #189 on: June 15, 2022, 07:33:11 PM »
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?

I know this thread is mostly jesting, but unlikely.

The average peak to trough for timeline of a bear market as been 16 months, we're currently just a hair over 5.

The average decline from peak to trough has been -39.4%, we closed on roughly -23%.

It's possible, but HIGHLY unlikely.

Isnít using the average bear market actually a bad way to predict things?  By selecting the average of only bear markets you already skew the average way into bear territory.  Thatís like saying that since Couple A has 6 kids, and the average Couple with between 6 and 50 kids has 9 kids, then itís highly unlikely they wonít have 3 more kids.  Well, Iím not a mathematician, but I suspect thereís a better process than that to predict Couple Aís likelihood.  Not saying we canít go lower, in fact Iíd also be surprised if we didnít have a moderately deep recession lasting a year or several. 

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #190 on: June 15, 2022, 09:14:27 PM »
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?

I know this thread is mostly jesting, but unlikely.

The average peak to trough for timeline of a bear market as been 16 months, we're currently just a hair over 5.

The average decline from peak to trough has been -39.4%, we closed on roughly -23%.

It's possible, but HIGHLY unlikely.

I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows.  So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worry

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #191 on: June 15, 2022, 09:31:55 PM »
I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows.  So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worry

I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?

If this is a repeat of 1980 rate hikes I think that the SP-500 only fell ~33% that time.

lutorm

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #192 on: June 16, 2022, 01:35:26 AM »
I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?
I think ... 40% ? ;-)

GuitarStv

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #193 on: June 16, 2022, 07:19:02 AM »
I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?
I think ... 40% ? ;-)

If it drops 60%, then falls an additional 41% I'm definitely going to take their money for their stocks.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #194 on: June 16, 2022, 08:24:47 AM »
I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows.  So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worry
I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?

If this is a repeat of 1980 rate hikes I think that the SP-500 only fell ~33% that time.
The number 60% is oddly specific, and if you got that from a specific source I'd like to read more about it.  Other than Jeremy Grantham, I haven't heard anyone mention a crash that deep, and it does make me curious.

I think the 1980s rate hikes had their roots in the oil embargo of the early 1970s.  From 1973-1974 markets experienced a drawdown of 46%.  If anything, the U.S. seemed to just try and live with high inflation that time.

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #195 on: June 16, 2022, 09:16:45 AM »
I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows.  So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worry
I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?

If this is a repeat of 1980 rate hikes I think that the SP-500 only fell ~33% that time.
The number 60% is oddly specific, and if you got that from a specific source I'd like to read more about it.  Other than Jeremy Grantham, I haven't heard anyone mention a crash that deep, and it does make me curious.

No, it's just further than the GFC which is the largest draw-down that I've personally lived through. It seems unlikely that this time around will be worse than the GFC, right?
« Last Edit: June 16, 2022, 09:23:03 AM by PDXTabs »

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #196 on: June 16, 2022, 11:27:54 AM »
Iím hearing 60%.  Plenty of people are saying it.  I donít know if itís going to be 60% but a lot of really astute people say 60%. 

vand

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #197 on: June 16, 2022, 11:58:14 AM »
I don't think the bottom is in yet, but, with the S&P now -24% from its all time highs, I think we're closer to the bottom, at least in nominal terms, than we are to the top.


solon

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #198 on: June 16, 2022, 01:34:30 PM »
"in nominal terms"

Imma start adding that to everything I say. Make me sound smart.

You have time to grab a cup of coffee, in nominal terms?
What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow, in nominal terms?

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #199 on: June 16, 2022, 01:42:19 PM »
"in nominal terms"

Imma start adding that to everything I say. Make me sound smart.

I'm going to start doing the opposite. From now on whenever I quote a price it is going to be in 2007 dollars.