I suppose one simply but effective solution is to just dollar point from now on over the next few months and pepper the dip. Lets face it, prices are acceptably low now and timing the actual bottom is impossible...as it always it.
Im happy to buy small but regularly from here on and avoid aiming for perfection. In ten years time I suppose it wont make any difference whether I bought at -25% or -35%.....However, it would be satisfying to call the bottom. I think the bottom will be when 50%+ ish of USA is infected....panic will really start then?
Based on todays USA infected population of 26,668 and a rough doubling every 3ish days, I calculate the following (assuming no containment and vaccine):
infected days from now
26,668 1-3
53,336 6
106,672 9
213,344 12
426,688 15
853,376 18
1,706,752 21
3,413,504 24
6,827,008 27
13,654,016 30
27,308,032 33
54,616,064 36
109,232,128 39
218,464,256 42
436,928,512 45
so in theory USA 300mill population could, and I stress could before someone attacks me, be fully infected somewhere after days 42 ish?...based on current trends. Assume a c. 1% loss of population once hospitals get swamped.
Let me know what others think of projection.
Barry
