Bottom is in!

[Cache_Stash]

The bottom is in!  Mortgage your house, leverage yourself to the hilt and buy, buy buy!

(In memorial to the Top is in Thread, R.I.P.)

[nereo]

You're no @thorstach

[Cache_Stash]

I thank god for that.

[HBFIRE]

Now this is a thread I can get on board with.

We had business retirement funds from last year that needed to be invested -- due to needing to maintain business liquidity, we cant invest it until usually around March-May of each year.  Welp, 75 K of it is going in today.  Another 75 K will be DCA'd in over the next 3 months in even increments. 

[dividendman]

This thread already exists? https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

[Xlar]

This thread already exists? https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

Yes, but obviously a new thread is needed since the last one was wrong ;)

[Cache_Stash]

This thread already exists? https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

Yes, but obviously a new thread is needed since the last one was wrong ;)

And this one will be wrong, as well.  Just like the Top is in thread.

The OP is an idiot. 

[HBFIRE]

I'm rooting for the OP

[Cache_Stash]

I'm rooting for the OP

Thank you.  So am I.  lol

[Cache_Stash]

Now this is a thread I can get on board with.

We had business retirement funds from last year that needed to be invested -- due to needing to maintain business liquidity, we cant invest it until usually around March-May of each year.  Welp, 75 K of it is going in today.  Another 75 K will be DCA'd in over the next 3 months in even increments.

That's pretty sweet isn't it?  Love when the world aligns with fulfilling needs.

[Cache_Stash]

You're no @thorstach

And you're no Desalination plant.

[Brother Esau]

Bottom? Wait for it...

[dividendman]

Futures down, bottom is in tomorrow?

[HBFIRE]

Futures down, bottom is in tomorrow?

sad face.  in all seriousness, i wouldnt be surprised if the bottom is 40-50% down from the top.  That said, I'll buy as much as I can right now while maintaining a 1-year EF just in case.  The hard part about buying during these times is people's incomes are also at risk, so the tendency is to also maintain a cash cushion.  I'll feel a lot more confident about income stability if we see virus numbers show any sign of slowing.

[dividendman]

Futures down, bottom is in tomorrow?

sad face.  in all seriousness, i wouldnt be surprised if the bottom is 40-50% down from the top.  That said, I'll buy as much as I can right now while maintaining a 1-year EF just in case.  The hard part about buying during these times is people's incomes are also at risk, so the tendency is to also maintain a cash cushion.  I'll feel a lot more confident about income stability if we see virus numbers show any sign of slowing.

Once the virus numbers show peaking/slowing, it'll be too late! Stocks will have already gone up (probably). Meh, I obviously really don't know, but just look at your IPS and stay the course!

[HBFIRE]

Once the virus numbers show peaking/slowing, it'll be too late! Stocks will have already gone up (probably). Meh, I obviously really don't know, but just look at your IPS and stay the course!

Oh thats for sure, though I'd be surprised if they recoop everything just on that type of news.  I'm okay with missing out on the "bottom" if I'm feeling better about income security before I invest a chunk of my 1-year EF.  As soon as things are looking clear, I'll probably go back to a 6 month EF.  In times like these, I sleep better with a more beefed up EF.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

It's interesting watching people lose their pessimistic and optimistic minds - it makes me question my plan a bit, but I'm sticking with 10,000 U.S. cases before I buy back in.  The U.S. hit 1,000 cases on Tuesday (Mar 10).  In both Italy and South Korea, a week after 1,000 cases they hit 5,000 cases.  The market hitting it's low point before the virus doesn't make sense to me, so I'm waiting.

Bottom is not in, yet.

[HBFIRE]

It's interesting watching people lose their pessimistic and optimistic minds - it makes me question my plan a bit, but I'm sticking with 10,000 U.S. cases before I buy back in.  The U.S. hit 1,000 cases on Tuesday (Mar 10).  In both Italy and South Korea, a week after 1,000 cases they hit 5,000 cases.  The market hitting it's low point before the virus doesn't make sense to me, so I'm waiting.

Bottom is not in, yet.

Interesting.  Why 10 K?  This will likely reach several hundred thousand cases, in fact scientists are projecting as much as 70% of the country.  Do you think the market hasn't already priced this in?  Keep in mind it's already pricing in all outcomes that seem likely.

[ender]

It's interesting watching people lose their pessimistic and optimistic minds - it makes me question my plan a bit, but I'm sticking with 10,000 U.S. cases before I buy back in.  The U.S. hit 1,000 cases on Tuesday (Mar 10).  In both Italy and South Korea, a week after 1,000 cases they hit 5,000 cases.  The market hitting it's low point before the virus doesn't make sense to me, so I'm waiting.

Bottom is not in, yet.

Interesting.  Why 10 K?  This will likely reach several hundred thousand cases.  Do you think the market hasn't already priced this in?  Keep in mind it's already pricing in all outcomes that seem likely.

When will the top be in on the number of active cases?

[HBFIRE]

When will the top be in on the number of active cases?

Thats a good question.  The hard part about this is that we don't even have any idea how much penetration there is due to such a relatively low number of tests especially in the US.  Then once we beef up tests, the data will be very hard to analyze -- how much is exponential growth versus existing cases that were slow to be identified?  This is an important distinction to make so that we can properly model projections.  Data scientists are going to have their work cut out.

[ender]

When will the top be in on the number of active cases?

Thats a good question.  The hard part about this is that we don't even have any idea how much penetration there is due to such a relatively low number of tests especially in the US.  Then once we beef up tests, the data will be very hard to analyze -- how much is exponential growth versus existing cases that have finally be identified?  Data scientists are going to have their work cut out.

So you're saying no one knows when the top will be in?

[HBFIRE]

So you're saying no one knows when the top will be in?

haha yesir.  At least with good data we could have a reasonable projection.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

It's interesting watching people lose their pessimistic and optimistic minds - it makes me question my plan a bit, but I'm sticking with 10,000 U.S. cases before I buy back in ...

Interesting.  Why 10 K?  This will likely reach several hundred thousand cases, in fact scientists are projecting as much as 70% of the country.

Other than Angela Merkel, I haven't heard an authority suggest millions infected.  If you've got a reputable source for that, I'll read about it.

China has virtually halted the virus at 80k cases, and they started their response by silencing the doctors who sounded the first alarms.  South Korea had under +3% growth in COVID-19 cases, so they might be containing it as well.  Further outbreaks are possible, but it looks like countries can contain COVID-19 well before it hits even 1 million cases.

In another thread, I saw China's situation and predicted 10,000 cases several days in advance.  The media then reported 10,000 cases, and markets reacted with panic.  So I predicted one panic in advance.  For the U.S., I decided to put a chunk of my portfolio on the line, so I acted with a bit less information and a bit earlier (at 213 cases according to WHO data).  I still feel that 10,000 U.S. cases will cause a market reaction, so I'm waiting for that panic.

Italy shut down the entire country, except for food and pharmacies.  China shut down a province that has more people than Italy.  Now Germany, France and Spain have outbreaks spreading rapidly.  The U.S. is close behind.  I don't see how they could allow millions of infections - more likely, portions of those countries will be shut down, causing further economic impact to contain the virus.  I think that's what markets have priced in - the current probability that countries with outbreaks shut down parts of their economies.

[HBFIRE]

Other than Angela Merkel, I haven't heard an authority suggest millions infected.  If you've got a reputable source for that, I'll read about it.

I really strongly encourage everyone to listen to this entire interview.  Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized top expert in infectious disease epidemiology.  This is an extremely informative interview.

If you start in about 1:40 he gets into projected numbers they expect.  Actually it's best to just start at the beginning of the interview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR0Ph-PFuksljDK58AFWdmm6vBOT20w4T17ryDXh8Gf6B3Zm5mexEoCc5oU

[HBFIRE]

by the way, China slowed it down due to full lock down, we're not close to that..... yet.

[markbike528CBX]

This thread already exists? https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

Yes, but obviously a new thread is needed since the last one was wrong ;)

And this one will be wrong, as well.  Just like the Top is in thread.

The OP is an idiot.

@Cache_Stash  The OP could not possibly be an idiot, the OP used to work at the same SemiBigCorp as I did :-)
... or did I just contradict myself ?

[HBFIRE]

Futures down, bottom is in tomorrow?

futures reversed!

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I really strongly encourage everyone to listen to this entire interview.  Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized top expert in infectious disease epidemiology.

Michael Osterholm is the first person I've heard who is more pessimistic than me about when COVID-19 will end - and he's the expert in infectious disease.  Others can also search for "COVID-19 Rogan" and find that interview on YouTube.

I'm going to have to re-evaluate the time frame of my experiment.

[Cache_Stash]

This thread already exists? https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

Yes, but obviously a new thread is needed since the last one was wrong ;)

And this one will be wrong, as well.  Just like the Top is in thread.

The OP is an idiot.

@Cache_Stash  The OP could not possibly be an idiot, the OP used to work at the same SemiBigCorp as I did :-)
... or did I just contradict myself ?

Hey Mark!  How are things for you?  Market is having a psychotic moment, isn't it?

[markbike528CBX]

This thread already exists? https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

Yes, but obviously a new thread is needed since the last one was wrong ;)

And this one will be wrong, as well.  Just like the Top is in thread.

The OP is an idiot.

@Cache_Stash  The OP could not possibly be an idiot, the OP used to work at the same SemiBigCorp as I did :-)
... or did I just contradict myself ?

Hey Mark!  How are things for you?  Market is having a psychotic moment, isn't it?

I'm doing as fine as one could hope, given that I'm essentially 100% equites. 
I pulled 6 months of expenses out in January, so I'm just sitting tight.
As in introvert retiree, my lifestyle has not changed a bit.  I'll admit to a hint of hypochondria, but not as bad as some.
Psychotic market? Maybe, but mostly a relief from the tension of THE TOP IS IN.

[Cache_Stash]

This thread already exists? https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

Yes, but obviously a new thread is needed since the last one was wrong ;)

And this one will be wrong, as well.  Just like the Top is in thread.

The OP is an idiot.

@Cache_Stash  The OP could not possibly be an idiot, the OP used to work at the same SemiBigCorp as I did :-)
... or did I just contradict myself ?

Hey Mark!  How are things for you?  Market is having a psychotic moment, isn't it?

I'm doing as fine as one could hope, given that I'm essentially 100% equites. 
I pulled 6 months of expenses out in January, so I'm just sitting tight.
As in introvert retiree, my lifestyle has not changed a bit.  I'll admit to a hint of hypochondria, but not as bad as some.
Psychotic market? Maybe, but mostly a relief from the tension of THE TOP IS IN.

Yeah - I hear that.  After 10 or more years of expansion (which is a record) a good correction is healthy for the market.  I exposes those that are swimming naked and shakes out companies that have been up to no good.  lol

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I'm running an experiment where I predict 10,000 U.S. cases of COVID-19 will trigger a local low point... so I guess I should predict a "bottom is in"?

Currently 2.4k cases, so 7.6k cases to go...  not at the bottom yet.
"almost there... stay on target..."

[JAYSLOL]

So is the bottom in?  The Top on?  The inside out? 

[dividendman]

Fear is gone, VIX down - bottom is in

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The markets open at 9 am EST, so I'll use that as my clock: it's 2:45 am in New York, Thursday, March 19.
I'm predicting a market bottom in advance, today or tomorrow (Mar 19-20).

Yesterday markets fell in a panic, and sometimes the day after that, markets rebound a bit.  But U.S. cases will pass 10,000 today before the market opens, which could generate additional headlines and market panic.

I originally predicted "10,000 U.S. cases roughly Friday" in several threads.  I'm off by a day, which actually changes my view.  I know it sounds like an over-reaction, to go from more pessimistic than almost everyone (esp the markets) and suddenly flip to more optimistic than everyone (definitely vs the markets).

I think increased testing is already translating into higher counts of COVID-19 in the U.S.  That's reinforced by the person leading the effort at more testing saying that's what is happening.  The claim is that older testing was wildly profitable... I mean only handled 10/day.  New testing platforms can supposedly handle millions a day (each or together, not sure).  Massive testing changes a situation like Italy's into one more like Korea's.

Thurs/Fri markets will panic and reach a bottom.  Over the weekend, people will start to realize more testing has resulted in catching more cases.  They'll start to count how many rooms are needed for quarantine, and how much hospital space is needed for patients - things people can count with some certainty.  The uncertainty can be completely removed by massive testing, which then removes uncertainty from markets.

So, we'll see... In advance, I'm predicting Thurs/Friday will be the market bottom (March 19-20).

[vand]

European stocks seem to be ahead of US stocks by a few days, and seem to have found support around the current price while the US was still sliding. Hopefully that may be a sign that we’re very close to or perhaps already past a bottom.

I’m hoping we are. The real-world stress is real enough with the changes we are having to go through and uncertainty over our jobs, without the additional weight of financial loss.

[chevy1956]

I'm buying but I think the bottom has a long way to go.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Although certainly I should be hassled in the event I'm wrong, it's also worth pointing out stocks are very low right now, making it a decent time to buy - even if we haven't hit the bottom.

I believe markets hit bottom when uncertainty turns to certainty.  If it's known how many will quarantine, how many will be in hospitals, how many will not survive... and known which companies will be saved, if people get paid time off, making health care affordable during the crisis... if all that is known, the rest is just adding it up.  Once it becomes a math problem, I'm sure the smartest guys at M.I.T. will do better than I will - and they probably joined the investment community to make lots of money.  They'll calculate the damage, buy/sell according to that, and then wait.  Things will stabilize.

Last week I sold at the market open.. then each time the market went up.  This week, I'm buying whenever the market takes a sharp drop.  I was ~60% stocks this past weekend, and I'm back up to 71% stocks now.  I'm deciding how high a percentage of equities to hold during the worst of the crisis....

I'm picking Thursday / Friday as the time of maximum uncertainty... and since I'm saying it in a thread called "Bottom is in!".... well, Bottom is in!

[soccerluvof4]

China for the first time reported zero new cases overnight so that along with the stimulus package I would hope would find us at least a temporary bottom. My best guess is were getting close to that but I would like to see a little settling in the market first as opposed to these whipsaw large sell off, rebounds. So like @MustacheAndaHalf Later this week or early next BUT i think temporary bottom.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Exactly my thinking - but could it be already happening?

This morning futures predicted no change in market values, which was puzzling.  Markets went a tiny amount lower, and then a tiny amount higher.  The market was calmer for the first 2 hours of trading than I've seen it in days.

[soccerluvof4]

Exactly my thinking - but could it be already happening?

This morning futures predicted no change in market values, which was puzzling.  Markets went a tiny amount lower, and then a tiny amount higher.  The market was calmer for the first 2 hours of trading than I've seen it in days.

yeah with about an hour left in trading if things dont whipsaw one way or another I would think its the first day of normalcy and somewhat healthy for a trading day. Also with news of 3,000 new cases in the USA overnight.

[Joe Schmo]

Blew past 10k cases like it was standing still. I did some very rough estimates on cases on a specific day based on % of new cases each day. For the most part I estimated 15-20% rate of new cases/day
e.g.
23-Mar 38k
27-Mar 100k
1- April 380k

Is this possible, yep. Likely? Who the hell knows.

The question is...will there be more panic if were pushing 100k cases next Friday?

[Jack0Life]

I've been guessing bottom will be ~15k Dow but I'm buying back in stages.
I moved around $300k to VBTLX. Said to myself I would buy back around 20k Dow.
VBTLX has been cliff diving too. Just a lot less severe than Indexes.
I moved $20k on Mon and $25K on Wed. I'm guessing Friday will be a cliff diving day.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Not only am I saying "Bottom is in", I increased my stock allocation yesterday, when the markets were strangely calm.

Lots of people are distracted by things that won't impact the virus.  People ask about vaccines and treatments, even though previous epidemics didn't end that way.  So I'm ignoring things that might be clouding people's view of what's going on.  I'm watching what happens with testing.

The CDC doesn't show up to date information.  But if you compare 2 weeks ago to 1 week ago, testing went up by about 3x.  That's great, but the virus was busy multiplying at 5x.  So by itself, that won't contain the virus unless social isolation starts to have an impact (like when the city of Wu Han shut down, and people stopped infecting others).

The government's response to COVID-19 is being headed up by Dr Birx, who is very qualified.  I've heard her talk on at least two occasions this week, telling people testing was increasing.  She said increased testing would result in more cases being detected, and asks people not to panic.  She mentioned things will probably catch up by Sunday.

Here's the tricky part - I worked backwards with what her numbers imply.  She mentioned that 10% of people had COVID-19, and 90% of people had some other illness.  Do you see what's interesting about her observation?  She has the latest information, and is broadcasting it for everyone to hear.  So if I can pick up more information than others, I can invest better.  Or confirm my theory that the bottom is in.

Currently there are about 3k or 4k new cases a day.  So trusting Dr Birx's data implies 30,000 or 40,000 tests are performed per day right now, which is about 7x more than about a week ago (slightly less).  And she's previously said we might be able to do millions/day, while she also keeps referring to Sunday as the time when testing will be ramped up.

So here's the strongest confirmation I have for calling the bottom: Dr Birx's public address, stating orders of magnitude jumps in testing.  That will remove uncertainty and fear, and calm the markets, when it occurs.  If I'm right, next week will be too late, and the stock market will start to rebound.

[Brother Esau]

Agreed. I've put all extra $ into the market and have shifted some bond fund $ into stock funds (re-balancing/market timing...whatever). If bottom is indeed in, great. If not, it will still prove to be a solid move given that I won't be touching those funds for at least 10 years from now.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Anyone buying now gets -30% off the price of stocks from 4 weeks ago, and -27% since the start of the year.  That's decent, even if more volatility is ahead.

Further evidence I called it right (sorry I'm being repetitive... I'm still stunned I make this call Wednesday)... someone working at the White House named "Mark" was interviewed by CNBC, and stated testing had gone up 10x per week, and not the 3x to 7x jump I calculated.  It's also possible some aspects of the chain are 10x, while needed supplies like cheek swabs might not be keeping up.  The current belief is that 100,000 tests are on the horizon.

People on CNBC and Bloomberg TV are starting to speculate about a bottom.  That and being tired of this volatile week - I think they will be refreshed over the weekend, and change perspectives.  We'll see...

I normally consider Jim Kramer merely humor value - but years and years ago he did run a hedge fund.  He says maybe there's a bottom, but nobody has any money to buy stocks.  I thought it was an amusing way to put it!

[solon]

No need to guess on the number of tests per day. Here it is: https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

[Jack0Life]

The market's been steady all day today and boom at 3pm, it started cliff diving. Strange.
I have nothing to do but to watch the market all day long. LOL
I'm tempted to throw in $10k or $20k if it keeps free falling before 4pm.

[PDXTabs]

[dividendman]

Mind didn't. My 401k goes into bonds to keep my 80/20 ratio happening... and bonds went up :(

On the plus side, I don't see how the market could fall another point. Bottom is in!