Author Topic: Bottom is in!  (Read 16751 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #150 on: April 02, 2020, 08:00:10 AM »
We don't know if the markets are adequately pricing everything in right now, because nobody is quite sure what's going to happen the next few months.
All known information is priced in.  Future events have their probability and impact priced in, which can change as new information arrives.
You're stating the obvious and talking to people like they don't understand how the stock market works.
You claim there's uncertainty over things being priced in, and I contradicted you, and said everything known is priced in.  I disagree with your view, because I think markets are efficient.  Efficient markets price in all available information.  If things change, markets adjust to new information and price it in.  You claim there's uncertainty, I claim there isn't.

bthewalls

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #151 on: April 02, 2020, 09:10:58 AM »
Do most people here believe, like I do, that the U.S. stock market is an "efficient market"?
Sure, over the long term.

You donít think emotion plays a part in short term movements? Thereís liquidity needs also.

The market is down about 5% today. Is it pricing in new information? I donít think so.
Looking at Yahoo Finance data, most of the drop happened when markets were closed.  Wednesday's open was -3.7% lower than Tuesday's close, suggesting not all of the -4.6% drop happened Wednesday.  During market hours, there was only a -1% drop from the opening price.

When I hear about a -5% drop on no news, I want to learn why.  I want to test the thesis - even looking for mistakes in my own ideas.  Predictions are either borne out by data, or shown false.  To me, an untested prediction lacks feedback.

I'm not tracking news and markets closely now that I'm just waiting.  But peeking at the U.S. news section on Google News, there's plenty of bad news - some significant.  There's a chance Washington DC could be paralyzed by COVID-19, some new estimates of unemployment are higher than the last record-breaking numbers, and the leader of the Senate feels a 4th relief bill should be dropped.  President Trump discussed the oil price war with Putin, and that first attempt at diplomacy went nowhere.  Finally, there's an absence of news contradicting the estimates of 100k-200k Americans dying over the course of COVID-19 (plus Fauci saying it will return in the fall), so that may still be sinking in (revising prior, lower estimates as it becomes more accepted).

Thanks MustacheAndaHalf.

am I reading this correct, you are expecting another dip?

baz

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #152 on: April 02, 2020, 09:47:05 AM »
I'm not tracking news and markets closely now that I'm just waiting.

Thanks MustacheAndaHalf.

am I reading this correct, you are expecting another dip?

baz
I only peeked at the news in response to AdrianC's post.  When I had a chunk of my portfolio outside the market, I diligently paid attention to the news and how my predictions were doing.  Now that I'm 100% equities, I'm just taking whatever the market dishes out between now and recovery.

Earlier, I predicted headlines.  Recently, everyone knows "flatten the curve" with a diagram of exponential growth being flattened.  People overlay Italy or China onto U.S. data.  To me, markets both understand exponential growth and are no longer panicking.  I don't have the advantage, so I'm back to watching efficient markets incorporate information.

You can replicate my earlier method: divide the total number of cases by the previous total.  Typically it's a day apart, and you include all prior cases.  You wind up with a number near +50%, near +30%, or 10-20% range.  The closer the growth factor is to 0%, the closer the outbreak is to being over.  I'll run an example:

Sun 139,061... Mon 160,530... Tues 184,770... Wed 210,770...
Mon growth: 160530 / 139061 = 15%
Tue growth:  184770/160530 = 15%
Wed growth: 210770/184770 = 14%

Note NY dominates this data: 84k of 184k cases are in New York, almost half.  So that can mask smaller outbreaks that are growing fast.  But once NY halts COVID-19 growth, that frees up significant resources to be used against those smaller outbreaks.

That doesn't reveal by itself if markets will be up or down the next few days, but it shows there's a trend of defeating COVID-19's spread using social distancing and increased testing (the U.S. has performed more than 1.1 million COVID-19 tests so far).  My 100% equities position probably biases me, but at least you can check the data and use the approach that helped me previously.  Just be warned that everyone has some version of it now, and mine is probably primitive by comparison.

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #153 on: April 03, 2020, 11:41:53 AM »
Market is tumbling today.
If it goes below Wed close, might have to buy in a little more.

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #154 on: April 03, 2020, 11:54:50 AM »
Today is my day to buy more up or down. Fingers crossed for down!

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #155 on: April 03, 2020, 12:49:27 PM »
Today is my day to buy more up or down. Fingers crossed for down!

Down for sure just depending on how much.
It usually take a drastic change in the last 30 mins before closing.

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #156 on: April 03, 2020, 02:03:03 PM »
Blah, it didn't drop as much as I was hoping for but I still move $10k from MM to VTSAX.
Still a big discount for me.

ender

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #157 on: April 03, 2020, 06:08:14 PM »
what impact do you foresee if 250,000+ people die in USA over next months guys? social upheaval, mass unemployment, social unrest.....

Are we fooling ourselves that this just corrects and bounces back up in a few months?

I honestly think that the market recovery will be inversely related to how many people die in the short term.

The "best case" for the market is that everyone in the country gets this about the same time, tons of people die, but then the entire country is either dead/immune. That mitigates the economic impact significantly and scopes the impact fairly clearly.

What will be bad for the market is if the uncertainty/economic shutdown continues for months or even a year or more. This will have a lot longer term economic impact as well.

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #158 on: April 03, 2020, 06:14:07 PM »
I'm not sure that I agree with ender, because more people dying means more supply and demand destruction.

With that said, I expect the bottom (and market recovery) to come while stuff still looks bad.

AdrianC

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #159 on: April 06, 2020, 06:56:39 AM »
Jerome Adams, the surgeon general, on Sunday:
ďThe next week is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment,Ē
ďItís going to be our 9/11 moment. Itís going to be the hardest moment for many Americans in their entire lives, and we really need to understand that if we want to flatten that curve and get through to the other side, everyone needs to do their part.Ē

In pre-market SPY (S&P500) is up 3.95%

ender

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #160 on: April 06, 2020, 07:39:31 AM »
I'm not sure that I agree with ender, because more people dying means more supply and demand destruction.

With that said, I expect the bottom (and market recovery) to come while stuff still looks bad.

Keep in mind that even though younger people are dying, overwhelmingly it's older people still that are actually dying from corona.

Given the industry shortages in healthcare/elder care anyways, long term this could actually  be a net positive economically (plus people inheriting are more likely to spend than their parents, I suspect).

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #161 on: April 06, 2020, 08:29:03 AM »
Market started today up by 1000 pts. Very surprising.
Its all the billionaires that's gobbling up the stocks.

AdrianC

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #162 on: April 06, 2020, 09:54:02 AM »
Keep in mind that even though younger people are dying, overwhelmingly it's older people still that are actually dying from corona.

Given the industry shortages in healthcare/elder care anyways, long term this could actually  be a net positive economically (plus people inheriting are more likely to spend than their parents, I suspect).
You wrote what I was thinking, or at least what I was thinking the market was thinking. The market is going up because medium to long-term economics are good.

vand

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #163 on: April 06, 2020, 10:06:03 AM »
The market pretty decisively failed the test at 2640 yesterday, so the bears remain in control. Accordingly, I'm less optimistic that I was at the start of the week and think that a retest of the bottom could be on the cards in short order. We need to close above about 2620 for the bulls to have something to cling to.

The bulls are threatening to take control back today. If we can close above 2590 then the S&P will have broken through the main downtrend.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #164 on: April 06, 2020, 12:08:04 PM »
This weekend, I noticed Saturday growth in new cases was lower but still +12.4% from the prior day.  But on Sunday, new cases dropped dramatically with just +8.7% growth.  In my experience, the media doesn't pay attention to the math - just exciting raw numbers.  When the growth rate drops by 1/3rd, it causes the raw number of new cases to go down from the previous day.  The media will see +33.8k cases Saturday, but only +26.6k cases Sunday.  I've started hearing the media notice it, now.  Europe also has a declining death rate, suggesting they're through the worst of it.

Because sometimes hospitals report data in a lumpy manner, with fewer Sunday and more Monday, there might be higher numbers Monday than the media / markets expect.  The situation in New York is still grim as they approach peak ventilator usage - so there could be bad news in some isolated times or places.

But overall, it looks like Europe and the U.S. will not see millions infected and 6 months of lock down.  So markets are reacting to that - and there's a long way to go.  The economy needs to be slowly restarted in a way that avoids more outbreaks, and there's lots of room for stocks to go up slowly as that unfolds.

VTI's peak was $171.32 on Feb 19, and 80% of that is $137.06.  Anything below that is a bear market, any move above it exits the bear market.  Which means from here ($130.57), if markets go up +5% the bear market is over (technically).

US stocks have gone up +17.2% since March 23.  So far, my call of the market bottom was very close (Friday Mar 20 vs Monday Mar 23).  It's looking more and more likely it will hold.

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #165 on: April 06, 2020, 02:17:56 PM »
I've been buying back little here and there when I see the market dropping but when I see a huge gain like today I took the gains and sold them off.
I moved $15k to VTSAX on Wed and $10k again on Friday. I was guessing the market will drop again on oil news but i was totally wrong about that. I was going to dump a bunch more to VTSAX. So I moved the entire $25k back to MM. Took the realized gain of ~$1800.
Usually when the market takes a huge jump like today, it can't sustain it the next day.
Still betting the market will take a big tumble when people realized how bad our economy is in another 2-3 weeks .

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #166 on: April 07, 2020, 03:02:58 PM »
Wow market was up big all morning. Kinda regret selling yesterday but somehow it ended in the red.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #167 on: April 08, 2020, 12:40:52 AM »
Between Friday's market close and Monday's market close VTI went up +7%.  To me, that represented the drop in U.S. cases - and hints of diplomacy on the oil price war.  The sooner a recovery, the less likely the worst case scenarios get.

This week Wuhan, China is ending it's lock down.  Europe's death rate is dropping.  The growth rate on U.S. cases is low and stable - but the media will see it as an increase in raw number of cases.  Any day, that growth rate could collapse and send new cases to new lows.  I haven't picked at the state by state data too closely, so there may be more surprises there.

President Trump has a press conference scheduled for tomorrow (Thursday), and right now Congress is negotiating on a 4th relief package.  That same day, Saudis and Russians plan to hold a meeting to say how their diplomacy is going.  If either of those events hold good news, it could push markets higher.

Those who do not buy back in Wednesday are at the mercy of two significant positive events that may or may not happen on Thursday.  For me, I'm back to seeing the market as efficient, and the historical evidence that markets tend to go up.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #168 on: April 08, 2020, 01:23:07 AM »
I miss the days of waking up to market circuit breakers being activated.....

Let's make the markets great again!

jojoguy

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #169 on: April 08, 2020, 01:50:24 AM »
I`m staying up all night recently because of my schedule change. Looks like the traders are moving the pre-markets back and forth waiting on some news this morning.

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #170 on: April 08, 2020, 11:49:21 AM »
I`m staying up all night recently because of my schedule change. Looks like the traders are moving the pre-markets back and forth waiting on some news this morning.
@jojoguy, where can I find out how traders are moving the pre-markets? I can see post-market movement by searching VTI on google, but have been wondered about the pre-markets. Thanks a lot!

Maenad

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #171 on: April 08, 2020, 03:46:34 PM »
"Strategist Jeff Saut says stock market bottom is in, predicts new S&P 500 record by year-end"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/jeff-saut-says-market-bottom-in-sees-new-sp-500-record-in-2020.html

A talking head on CNBC said it, we're good to go!

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #172 on: April 08, 2020, 10:45:16 PM »
I`m staying up all night recently because of my schedule change. Looks like the traders are moving the pre-markets back and forth waiting on some news this morning.
@jojoguy, where can I find out how traders are moving the pre-markets? I can see post-market movement by searching VTI on google, but have been wondered about the pre-markets. Thanks a lot!

https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #173 on: April 09, 2020, 05:44:37 PM »
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) closed at $115.19 on Friday, March 20.  So per my earlier post, that's my prediction of the market bottom.
VTI is now $139.36, or +21% since I called the bottom (one day early - bottom was Mar 23).  For me, I called the moment panic would end and believed that would also be a stock market bottom.  I also said I was probably wrong, as other events like unemployment could drive the market lower.

Unemployment hasn't really impacted markets.  In normal times, people lose their jobs is a leading indicator of bad times ahead.  Right now, it's clearly fallout from entire cities where nobody is out shopping.  If someone is at home on lock down, they can work from home or be unemployed - they aren't going to the mall (I hope!  social distancing can be the way to solve the epidemic, plus testing).

Yesterday stocks closed within 20% of their Feb 19 peak, meaning the bear market ended yesterday.  So my predicted low point (-33%) was a day early from the actual low (-35%) of that bear market.

Stachless

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #174 on: April 09, 2020, 08:27:19 PM »
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) closed at $115.19 on Friday, March 20.  So per my earlier post, that's my prediction of the market bottom.
VTI is now $139.36, or +21% since I called the bottom (one day early - bottom was Mar 23).  For me, I called the moment panic would end and believed that would also be a stock market bottom.  I also said I was probably wrong, as other events like unemployment could drive the market lower.

Unemployment hasn't really impacted markets.  In normal times, people lose their jobs is a leading indicator of bad times ahead.  Right now, it's clearly fallout from entire cities where nobody is out shopping.  If someone is at home on lock down, they can work from home or be unemployed - they aren't going to the mall (I hope!  social distancing can be the way to solve the epidemic, plus testing).

Yesterday stocks closed within 20% of their Feb 19 peak, meaning the bear market ended yesterday.  So my predicted low point (-33%) was a day early from the actual low (-35%) of that bear market.


Soooo....how much $$$ did you make from this prescient call? 

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #175 on: April 09, 2020, 10:17:37 PM »
I`m staying up all night recently because of my schedule change. Looks like the traders are moving the pre-markets back and forth waiting on some news this morning.
@jojoguy, where can I find out how traders are moving the pre-markets? I can see post-market movement by searching VTI on google, but have been wondered about the pre-markets. Thanks a lot!

https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Thanks a lot, @Jack0Life !

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #176 on: April 10, 2020, 02:26:52 AM »
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) closed at $115.19 on Friday, March 20.  So per my earlier post, that's my prediction of the market bottom.
VTI is now $139.36, or +21% since I called the bottom (one day early - bottom was Mar 23).  For me, I called the moment panic would end and believed that would also be a stock market bottom.  I also said I was probably wrong, as other events like unemployment could drive the market lower.

Unemployment hasn't really impacted markets.  In normal times, people lose their jobs is a leading indicator of bad times ahead.  Right now, it's clearly fallout from entire cities where nobody is out shopping.  If someone is at home on lock down, they can work from home or be unemployed - they aren't going to the mall (I hope!  social distancing can be the way to solve the epidemic, plus testing).

Yesterday stocks closed within 20% of their Feb 19 peak, meaning the bear market ended yesterday.  So my predicted low point (-33%) was a day early from the actual low (-35%) of that bear market.
Soooo....how much $$$ did you make from this prescient call?
In my experiment, you'll see I was 60-72% equities during the first week of market drops.  And when calling the bottom, I went 100% equities.  Still, I don't think trusting other people's numbers is a good idea.

In my posts on March 20 - did I really post there was a bottom?  Once you've verified that, what was the price back then, and what is the price now?  Instead of trusting me, trust Yahoo Finance's historical data for VTI:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI/history?p=VTI

bthewalls

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #177 on: April 10, 2020, 09:41:55 AM »
Dalio makes for interesting reading....according to him we are all screwed.

dividendman

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #178 on: April 10, 2020, 11:31:43 AM »
Is the market even really down anymore?

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #179 on: April 10, 2020, 10:19:20 PM »
Dalio makes for interesting reading....according to him we are all screwed.
He's interesting, but his view seems too high level, like when he talks about 50-75 year cycles.  Even if that view is correct, it can't make predictions narrower than 25 years.  I don't see how it lets him predict the current, extremely fast, bear market.


Is the market even really down anymore?
According to Yahoo Finance, etfdb and morningstar, US markets are down -14.4% YTD.

bthewalls

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #180 on: April 11, 2020, 11:19:27 AM »
Dalio makes for interesting reading....according to him we are all screwed.
He's interesting, but his view seems too high level, like when he talks about 50-75 year cycles.  Even if that view is correct, it can't make predictions narrower than 25 years.  I don't see how it lets him predict the current, extremely fast, bear market.


Still its hard to ignore that level of knowledge and expertise....its easy and comfortable to bin his view, but what if there is some merit in part of it.  Im reading through is priniciple for nagitating big debt crises again.

medinaj2160

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #181 on: April 11, 2020, 11:45:32 AM »
I only got $5500 of VTI at $110.... I should had put everything that I had but I thought it was going to go lower.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 11:59:25 AM by medinaj2160 »

AdrianC

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #182 on: April 11, 2020, 07:23:31 PM »
I only got $5500 of VTI at $110.... I should had put everything that I had but I thought it was going to go lower.
Itís early days yet. You might get another crack at it.
Folks are getting way too optimistic.
A vaccine, if we ever get a vaccine, is 18 months or more out.
Flattening the curve is a very good thing. Then what?
Weíre not back to normal any time soon, thatís for darn sure.

FIreDrill

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #183 on: April 11, 2020, 09:12:33 PM »
I still think we will test 200 on the SPY....  I think the initial selloff was a flash flood overreaction but this latest rebound is potentially setting up a bull trap that would lead to retesting lows and then a break lower as things worsen.  I don't see our economy recovering from this for another year or two.  It's going to be an interesting ride and a great time to continue buying into the market and rebalancing your portfolios accordingly.  In the end, anything can happen but I am very skeptical that the lows are behind us.

Fun time ahead :)

HBFIRE

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #184 on: April 11, 2020, 10:14:00 PM »
market rebounding just due to the fact that its realizing covid 19 is not nearly as bad as initially thought and the economy should be able to reopen much sooner than expected.  I mean the IFR has been adjusted from what was claimed to be 3% just a month ago to now 0.3-0.5%.

Brother Esau

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #185 on: April 12, 2020, 05:15:08 PM »
market rebounding just due to the fact that its realizing covid 19 is not nearly as bad as initially thought and the economy should be able to reopen much sooner than expected.  I mean the IFR has been adjusted from what was claimed to be 3% just a month ago to now 0.3-0.5%.

Optimism! Don't share this idea in the "Off Topic" thread, you'll get flamed.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #186 on: April 12, 2020, 09:18:39 PM »
Dalio makes for interesting reading....according to him we are all screwed.
He's interesting, but his view seems too high level, like when he talks about 50-75 year cycles.  Even if that view is correct, it can't make predictions narrower than 25 years.  I don't see how it lets him predict the current, extremely fast, bear market.
Still its hard to ignore that level of knowledge and expertise....its easy and comfortable to bin his view, but what if there is some merit in part of it.  Im reading through is priniciple for nagitating big debt crises again.
I don't plan on reading a book of his right now, but I would read an article or a 10-min piece of his interview.

He could be right that credit being cheap will lead to poor outcomes.  But I'm trying to view this in terms of weeks, while he's looking in terms of years.  So even if he's right, I'm not sure how far off that would be.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #187 on: April 13, 2020, 07:54:39 AM »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #188 on: April 14, 2020, 12:16:27 AM »
Goldman says the bottom is in!
You beat me to it!  Why did I wait to post here?  :)  I find this April 13 prediction hilarious.
Where was Goldman on March 23, with markets -35% from the peak?  Crickets...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI/history?p=VTI
Comparing Monday's close of VTI ($137.70) to the bottom ($111.36), it's a +23.7% increase overall.  So Goldman, with their billions of investment dollars and millions spent on stock research... they're calling a bottom now, with markets up +23.7% since March 23.

Hm, did I miss the part where they apologized for missing a roughly +24% gain?

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #189 on: April 14, 2020, 07:55:07 AM »
Goldman says the bottom is in!
You beat me to it!  Why did I wait to post here?  :)  I find this April 13 prediction hilarious.
Where was Goldman on March 23, with markets -35% from the peak?  Crickets...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI/history?p=VTI
Comparing Monday's close of VTI ($137.70) to the bottom ($111.36), it's a +23.7% increase overall.  So Goldman, with their billions of investment dollars and millions spent on stock research... they're calling a bottom now, with markets up +23.7% since March 23.

Hm, did I miss the part where they apologized for missing a roughly +24% gain?

Our own Thorstach has been a far more reliable bellwether. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #190 on: April 14, 2020, 08:36:31 AM »
I only heard Thorstach cashed out, but nothing about buying back in.  If you want a more accurate prediction, I'm going to have to "toot my own horn" here:

From my earlier post in this thread:

The markets open at 9 am EST, so I'll use that as my clock: it's 2:45 am in New York, Thursday, March 19.
I'm predicting a market bottom in advance, today or tomorrow (Mar 19-20).
...
So, we'll see... In advance, I'm predicting Thurs/Friday will be the market bottom (March 19-20).

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) closed at $115.19 on Friday, March 20.  So per my earlier post, that's my prediction of the market bottom.

It's likely unemployment and rising virus numbers will cause more drops, and prove me wrong.  I believe testing will ultimately be the way through the panic and uncertainty, but markets will probably figure that out more slowly.

"more slowly" turned out to be one day, March 23, the actual market bottom.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #191 on: April 14, 2020, 08:42:10 AM »
I only heard Thorstach cashed out, but nothing about buying back in.  If you want a more accurate prediction, I'm going to have to "toot my own horn" here:

From my earlier post in this thread:

The markets open at 9 am EST, so I'll use that as my clock: it's 2:45 am in New York, Thursday, March 19.
I'm predicting a market bottom in advance, today or tomorrow (Mar 19-20).
...
So, we'll see... In advance, I'm predicting Thurs/Friday will be the market bottom (March 19-20).

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) closed at $115.19 on Friday, March 20.  So per my earlier post, that's my prediction of the market bottom.

It's likely unemployment and rising virus numbers will cause more drops, and prove me wrong.  I believe testing will ultimately be the way through the panic and uncertainty, but markets will probably figure that out more slowly.

"more slowly" turned out to be one day, March 23, the actual market bottom.

Assuming of course that what we're seeing isn't a bear rally. And that the bottom was in. 

hodedofome

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #192 on: April 15, 2020, 02:38:58 AM »
You can go back and look at this chart for the past decade. Itís the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average. It doesnít tell you where the exact bottom is, it can go to 0 and remain there for a while.

However, after itís dropped below 15% and risen back above it, the indicator has given you a safe re-entry back in the market 4 out of 4 times. Itís back above 15% now.

I am heavy leveraged long this market. Using futures and tech stocks in my margin account and 3x Nasdaq ETFs in some of my retirement and kids college accounts.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/INDEX-S5TH/

vand

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #193 on: April 15, 2020, 03:17:04 AM »
Bottom is in.. yours truly pretty much nailed it. The day before the bottom I wrote:

I've followed the market since 1999 and I can categorically tell you that every time we put in a bear market bottom, it never felt like that was going to be the point the market started to recover, and most participants and observers were of the opinion that the market had further to fall.

Of course, this has to be the case - the market bottoms are forged at the point of maximum pessimism where nearly everyone is convinced that it will only fall further, otherwise it would have already bottomed!

As I said numerous times, I don't know if we are near a bottom, but I have no doubt that the day we put in a bottom probably won't feel like that will be the day the fightback has begun.. it will feel to nearly everyone that the market can only keep going down. Right now a fairly popular question doing the rounds is "how much further can we fall?" People are only looking down.


and the day after the bottom I wrote:

The Top Is In... but equally, so too is the bottom.

No, really... it might just be.
VIX has been retreating from its highs, indicating that the panic is slowly retreating even as we fell to marginal new lows, and the technical indicators show the downside momentum was fading.

People waiting for Dow15k to dump their money in might not get that chance.

I didn't base this on number of infections, deaths, Fed announcements, unemployment figures or anything else.. I simply felt that sentiment had reached maximum pessimism and just about everyone was convinced that the market was going lower, which is the time that the market is most likely to make a fool of everyone trying to predict it.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #194 on: April 20, 2020, 12:29:51 AM »
For those who ignored vand and my calls near the bottom, take a look at the current situation:

S&P 500 is -10.5% YTD, compared to -31% on March 23.
Since that bottom, the S&P 500 gained +28% according to Yahoo Finance.

I'm pessimistic in the short-term, since I think the market is overly optimistic about the time frame for important events from this last week.  Some time in May/June/July I expect to flip back to optimistic.

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #195 on: April 21, 2020, 12:43:38 AM »
I'm pessimistic in the short-term, since I think the market is overly optimistic about the time frame for important events from this last week.  Some time in May/June/July I expect to flip back to optimistic.
Do you mean that the market will flip back to pessimistic in May to July, since it's overly optimistic now?

vand

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #196 on: April 21, 2020, 02:10:11 AM »
Going from 2200 to tagging the 2900 level on the S&P in 4 weeks is a very good bounce..

I agree with Mustacheanhalf that I think most of the easy gains are behind us, and further upside will run into increasing levels of resistance. It obviously can't keep bouncing 10% a week, and in my judgement the short term risk/reward is not nearly as good at this level, so I wouldn't be surprised if we head back lower over the next few weeks. We shall see.

« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 02:12:52 AM by vand »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #197 on: April 21, 2020, 05:50:27 AM »
moneytaichi - Not exactly.  Since experts are cautious about Remdesivir, and I predict governors putting up resistance to WH phase two guidelines, I'm pessimistic.  Last week the market made gains, and was -10.5% YTD, which doesn't seem to reflect months ahead of lock down to prevent a deadly pandemic with no cure.

The longer I wait, the more likely a breakthrough makes the market recover - while I'm 25% cash.  To mitigate that risk, I need to go 100% equities after the market's view reflects the length of the lock down, or after enough time passes that it's too risky to stay at 75% equities / 25% cash.  The May/June/July is my limit on staying out of the market, rather than a prediction about specific events during those months.

Note that oil actually has multiple prices, one for the U.S. and one for the rest of the world, reflecting different types of oil.  Right now U.S. contracts are ending, impacting U.S. oil prices.  Next month, the same problem will occur in the rest of the world.  So even if markets don't reflect a longer lock down that expected, there might be a "buy the dip" chance when oil prices drop (assuming no OPEC agreement to cut production enough).

jojoguy

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #198 on: April 21, 2020, 06:15:59 AM »
Now I am seeing why the oil markets are so risky. It is crazy that last year crude oil was $60 a barrel and now in negative prices.

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #199 on: April 21, 2020, 02:18:43 PM »
Looks like the market has the momentum to fall for a few days.
I was having anxiety the 2 previous weeks when the market was going up and I would move some back in and then out to take the realized gains. At one point I had all $300k on the sidelines and when the market went up, I had nightmares of missing out.
I've been moving back little at a time as not to miss out even though I truly think the market will drop a bit more.
I have $85k of $300k back in.
If it keeps dropping I'll keep moving $10k back so if it does drop to Dow 20k I should have half in, half out. At that point I might just push the rest back into the market so I can stop my timing. LOL.