Bond Investing Now??? - Election Related

[TrevorFIRE45]

Is now the time to invest anything in Bonds while they are dropping? How much further will they drop? I have enough for investor shares for VBMFX, is their any Bond funds that are better? Expense ration for investor is .16% Open to any and all suggestions!

[talltexan]

I, too, have been considering this.

[VoteCthulu]

I just decided to rebalanced this week, since stocks are up and bonds are down. If they continue moving apart I might do so again next week or month, but I don't have enough confidence in where anything is moving to overweight away from my normal allocation at this point.

[boarder42]

Umm don't time the market. You don't know it could go all 1990s tech bubble and hit a shiller pe of over 40. Stick to your asset allocation and move on about your life

[Rockies]

Hard to tell, heres two very successful and well know investors arguing about it. Ray Dalio thinks that bond prices just hit their 30 year high and only are going down in price from here on out:

http://fortune.com/2016/11/16/bill-gross-ray-dalio-donald-trump/

I'd stick to your bond allocation before the election unless your goals have changed. No one really knows at this point so any investment based on your prediction of the future is purely gambling.

[soccerluvof4]

Umm don't time the market. You don't know it could go all 1990s tech bubble and hit a shiller pe of over 40. Stick to your asset allocation and move on about your life

^this +1

[Metric Mouse]

Umm don't time the market. You don't know it could go all 1990s tech bubble and hit a shiller pe of over 40. Stick to your asset allocation and move on about your life

^this +1

+2. Follow the IPS. This is exactly not the time to be switching strategies.

[AZryan]

Umm don't time the market. You don't know it could go all 1990s tech bubble and hit a shiller pe of over 40. Stick to your asset allocation and move on about your life

^this +1

+2. Follow the IPS. This is exactly not the time to be switching strategies.

I'll add another 'plus' to 'stick with your asset allocation', but I'm really posting 'cuz the 'what if' comment of another tech bubble seemed troubling to me. It wasn't clear, but I think it meant -"You wouldn't want to miss out on that, would you?"

But if you start with the last 3 great years of the 90's tech bubble and go through the 3 awful years of that bubble bursting, the Total Stock Mkt lost compared to a 60/40 blend with the Total Bond Market. Add the first year of recovery from that dot com crash and both portfolios end up nearly the same place. So, missing out on a huge run up AND a following crash because shit got crazy overpriced seems totally worth missing out on.
Every boom/crash are different of course. I'm just sayin' it was an odd example to mention with an unclear point.

[talltexan]

I'm worried that we're in an environment in which these swings come more quickly than they used to. Brexit seemed to last for about six hours. The Trump re-adjustment took less than a week.

[Metric Mouse]

I'm worried that we're in an environment in which these swings come more quickly than they used to. Brexit seemed to last for about six hours. The Trump re-adjustment took less than a week.

Maybe investors are becoming more savvy? They realize that overtime the market has trended up, and thus it's best to stay invested even during bad news?

[spokey doke]

here is a related thread over at BH:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=204114&sid=bffd0b16aaed95867a9ef0fafad1e363

I'm keenly interested in this question, as I happened to sell our substantial bond fund investments at Fidelity in order to move them over to Vanguard in July (basically at their recent peak).  I moved the money and left it in cash, ignoring it and dithering on just what to buy and when, as everything seemed expensive.  Low and behold VWSUX and VWIUX (the main targets I was looking at) prices have taken a bit of a nose dive.

I will likely dither some more, and eventually invest in chunks at a time.  While I get the no market timing mantra, it can be difficult not to keep watching as prices go down...I had a similar experience sitting on a chunk of cash in 2008, when I got in (partially) at the bottom but didn't get fully back in until well beyond that.

[arebelspy]

here is a related thread over at BH:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=204114&sid=bffd0b16aaed95867a9ef0fafad1e363

I'm keenly interested in this question, as I happened to sell our substantial bond fund investments at Fidelity in order to move them over to Vanguard in July (basically at their recent peak).  I moved the money and left it in cash, ignoring it and dithering on just what to buy and when, as everything seemed expensive.  Low and behold VWSUX and VWIUX (the main targets I was looking at) prices have taken a bit of a nose dive.

I will likely dither some more, and eventually invest in chunks at a time.  While I get the no market timing mantra, it can be difficult not to keep watching as prices go down...I had a similar experience sitting on a chunk of cash in 2008, when I got in (partially) at the bottom but didn't get fully back in until well beyond that.

Selling high and buying low you have to be right twice.  You got lucky on one of them, and you're hoping to get lucky on the other, too?

+1 to the "stick to your IPS" comments.