The people and the 'smart money' have all the information priced in, until they don't. If you have an edge, then you can absolutely beat the market. Most people don't know what their edge is, though. Or have the discipline to trade. So, they are better off indexing. As so often in life, the answer is to know thyself.
Through work, for example, I know that 3M products are in crazy high demand now b/c of Covid-19. This isn't high demand like the toilet paper shortage, where the demand is just brought forward, but real demand. People who've never used 3m masks or protective gear before will use it now and then dispose of it. Increased demand, yet they're down 20%. The markets have it wrong due to indiscriminate selling.
Also; cruise lines are going to get hit, and hit hard. That was a great short opportunity (or Put buying) last week. Why didn't the smart money price it in last week if they're so smart? What new event has happened over the last five days to cause cruise line stocks to drop by 50% since last Friday? Nothing that wasn't already known on Friday. Reason: the market isn't so smart. Or very good at 'pricing in' information. There is no 'perfect' market in this sense.
Biotechs and biopharma have all kinds of opportunity even today, b/c the 'smart-money' whizzes don't understand what they do. And the ones who do understand biotech and biopharma don't understand markets. Can hedge funds hire scientists to explain the technology to them? Sure, and I know they do. But, not enough to make the market 'price-in' all the information.
Also, lots of time it's just plain laziness that keeps the people from 'pricing in' the market changes. People see stocks on the ticker tape as a roulette wheel and forget the underlying company, whose performance drives the stock price.
So, yeh, if you're like the OP and say on the cusp of a bear market 'Great DOW component down 40%, it must be a bargain!', then, yeh, you'll pay a lot to learn the lessons of the market. Much better to follow the advice of
@ChpBstrd and be patient and wait for the new lower earnings to be priced in. It takes a lot of work (and time) to get this sense of valuation, etc. that ChpBstrd is talking about. I enjoy doing this and suspect that others do as well, but if you don't enjoy doing it, then indexing is the best solution.