Author Topic: Bill Bernstein Interview  (Read 2096 times)

AdrianC

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AdrianC

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Re: Bill Bernstein Interview
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2017, 11:56:12 AM »
I listened to it and made a few notes. Here they are, FWIW:

Bill Bernstein Interview 20170705

On the Meb Faber show.

They discuss Bill Bernstein’s free investment advice booklet:

https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf

Notes:
•   Stocks are risky. Taking out a mortgage to invest in stocks is “taking a heck of a lot more risk”.
•   “…much smarter if you got a mixed portfolio of stocks and bonds and you got a mortgage to just pay off the mortgage with the bonds in the portfolio”.
•   Valuation: not terribly worried by USA valuations. We are not in a bubble.
•   Expected returns USA: Intermediate bonds 2% nominal, Stocks 6% nominal, expects inflation to be 2% or more.
•   Higher expected returns in emerging markets and foreign developed. Advises to sell a little US and buy non-US. Going from 35% to 40% non-US mentioned as an example.

•   Recommends “Triumph of the Optimists” at Credit Suisse
https://www.credit-suisse.com/us/en/articles/articles/news-and-expertise/2017/04/en/credit-suisse-yearbook-2017.html

•   Know yourself, you are your own worst enemy. “You just have to learn the hard way”.
•   Dunning–Kruger effect
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
•   Note to self – see also Imposter Syndrome:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impostor_syndrome

•   Simple but not easy. Simple: put 15-20% of salary (more for Mustachian types, obviously) into a target date retirement fund and never look at it.
•   Ignore the “financial porn”, i.e. the financial media and stockbrokers.
•   Only an income producing investment, such as a stock, bond or working piece of real estate is a true investment.
•   A house is not a good investment. Returns generally about 1% over inflation.

•   Biggest mistake: “I should have been much more aggressive in my stock purchases and my allocation when I was a much younger man”.

•   Book recs: Tetlock “Expert Political Judgement”, Walter Scheidel “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century”

kenaces

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Re: Bill Bernstein Interview
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2017, 06:15:54 PM »
Just had a listen.  Faber's is my favorite investing podcast and he has had so many great guests on since he started last year.

I hope some MMM people give this and other of his podcasts a listen and consider diversifying their portfolios.

Radagast

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Re: Bill Bernstein Interview
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2017, 10:28:11 PM »
Thanks for posting. Bernstein is my favorite investment guru, and I consider him the wisest, so I always listen to what he says. My take aways were that he does not think we are in a bubble (which is different from saying there can't be a crash) and that I do not want to repeat his worst mistake. Oh and he says "smart beta" is actually "smart marketing" but he still feels "small value" investing works.