Author Topic: Reduced effect from yearly spending change  (Read 2250 times)

PencilMustache

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Reduced effect from yearly spending change
« on: February 15, 2015, 05:48:32 PM »
Hello all,

I'm confused by an effect I have gotten with cFireSim and would like your input as to a reason for why this could be happening.

http://www.cfiresim.com/input.php?id=22945

Using the above save, when I change my yearly spending between the following values, I see the resulting median amounts:

14k: 1.034m
20k: 1.028m
25k: 1.023m

I have set the end date for the simulation to be the retirement date so that I can get the median amount data at retirement.

I would think that changes between these three values would cause a huge change over the 8 years of the simulation, but it doesn't seem like there is that much of a change at all. An almost 10k change in spending per year only produces less than a 10k difference over 8 years. Theoretically why could this be?

tarheeldan

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Re: Reduced effect from yearly spending change
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2015, 07:28:02 PM »
When I open this save up, it shows Retirement Year = 2022 and Retirement End Year = 2022.

As you can see the median differences are equal to the amount you changed spending by, since it's only 1 year.

PencilMustache

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Re: Reduced effect from yearly spending change
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2015, 07:37:03 PM »
When I open this save up, it shows Retirement Year = 2022 and Retirement End Year = 2022.

As you can see the median differences are equal to the amount you changed spending by, since it's only 1 year.

The retirement year and end year are the same so that I can get the detailed stats on the year of retirement. It was my impression that the simulation would simulate my expenses and my income in the years prior to the retirement date as well. I thought that this was why the number it gives as the median is above 1 million as opposed to the starting balance which is 94k.

Edit: Oh wait, are you saying that cFireSim doesn't subtract the amount in "Yearly Spending" until the retirement date?
« Last Edit: February 15, 2015, 07:48:49 PM by PencilMustache »

tarheeldan

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Re: Reduced effect from yearly spending change
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2015, 07:51:23 PM »
Hm... I'm not that familiar with the application - but maybe Retirement Year is the year when Yearly Spending begins, which should result in your issue.

PencilMustache

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Re: Reduced effect from yearly spending change
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2015, 07:55:28 PM »
Hm... I'm not that familiar with the application - but maybe Retirement Year is the year when Yearly Spending begins, which should result in your issue.

Yep, I just did a test with it and that is exactly the issue. Thanks for helping me get this sorted out, my simulations will be much more accurate now.