..... I'm now living in the DC area, where buying might not even be smart given the outrageously overpriced market. So I'll think it over for the next year or so, and maybe lump some of this into investments if there's a significant crash anytime soon.
I'm afraid I just think this is badly flawed logic that flies in the face of historical facts, and that you are continuing in all probability to do yourself financial harm. Continuing to hold cash and avoiding investing is one of the reasons why so few people reach FI.
- Your cash is losing value right now, due to inflation. After 5 years of 3% inflation your original sum of cash will have lost over
14% of its value. It's a crash in slow motion that is not a risk, it is already happening.
- For your intended use as a down payment, if house prices continue to go up, your % of an eventual house purchase price is getting smaller and smaller over time.
Think of a subsistence farmer who has a load of seed corn. He thinks, wow, that's not a lot of corn, and I have to feed my family next year, and the year after that! I'd better keep it safe so I know I have something to eat in future. Afterall, my Uncle once planted his corn and there was a drought and he lost everything! So that's what he does. And even while he keeps it, rodents are nibbling away at it.
A different strategy is to plant the corn, and grow a load more. And do the same thing year after year. Yes, there is a risk that the rains don't come and his crop fails. But the way to insure against that risk is so obviously NOT to never plant the corn. He might swap some of the corn for some seeds of a few different crops and plant those too. Maybe get a few chickens. Grow some grass and have some goats or a cow. Sell some of his land and get some land elsewhere and plant there too. Save enough to dig a well for irrigation. The answer to his fear is clearly diversification and the accumulation and investment of capital.
No, indeed, I can't say with high probability what will happen to future house prices in DC. Or if there will or won't be stock market fluctuations. But I am confident the best way to address these uncertainties is not to hold a large % of your 'stach in cash.