Author Topic: Which REITs do you recommend ?  (Read 2151 times)

lamachin007

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Which REITs do you recommend ?
« on: March 26, 2020, 12:47:03 PM »
Which  REITs do you recommend ?

Tyler

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2020, 03:05:05 PM »
Just like stocks, I’d stick to broad indices rather than individual REITs. VNQ is the biggest, but other good options include RWR, SCHH, IYR, and FSRNX.

Rob_bob

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2020, 07:44:43 PM »
If you really want an individual Reit look at WPC, WY, DEA (rents to the US Government, they will pay their rent).  MPW rents to hospitals. O is the big name everyone loves but even now it's a little high, now last Monday I would have picked it up if I wanted more.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2020, 08:11:24 PM »
I would narrow it down to Vanguard and funds with lower expense ratios than Vanguard.

Vanguard REIT (VNQ) has a 0.12% expense ratio and tracks the MSCI Real Estate Index.
Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index (FREL) tracks the same index, but with an 0.08% expense ratio.
iShares Core US REIT (USRT) tracks FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs Index with a 0.08% expense ratio.
Schwab US REIT (SCHH) holds fewer stocks, saving on expense ratio (0.07%), and tracks the Dow Joes REIT Index.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2020, 08:15:50 PM »
If you really want an individual Reit look at WPC, WY, DEA (rents to the US Government, they will pay their rent).  MPW rents to hospitals. O is the big name everyone loves but even now it's a little high, now last Monday I would have picked it up if I wanted more.
Three of those (WPC, DEA, MPW) have low beta (0.51 to 0.62), meaning they are less volatile than the market.  So I'm curious why Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) is included in the list, with it's volatile 1.71 beta.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/wy/quote

J Boogie

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2020, 09:06:24 AM »
If you really want an individual Reit look at WPC, WY, DEA (rents to the US Government, they will pay their rent).  MPW rents to hospitals. O is the big name everyone loves but even now it's a little high, now last Monday I would have picked it up if I wanted more.
Three of those (WPC, DEA, MPW) have low beta (0.51 to 0.62), meaning they are less volatile than the market.  So I'm curious why Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) is included in the list, with it's volatile 1.71 beta.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/wy/quote

I own WPC and DEA. DEA hasn't dropped too much. WPC fell to near 40 and I backed up the truck. WPC is awesome.

I own some CTT, which is like WY, but just for diversification. Timber REITs seem to have very limited upside.


J Boogie

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2020, 09:08:34 AM »
Cyrus One
WP Carey
Omega Health
DOC
GMRE
IIPR
DEA

These are my top REITs. Some have performed very well. I bought tons last week as I know them quite well and found their values absurdly low. Most have already popped back up like 20% or more.

BicycleB

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2020, 12:41:04 PM »
Posting to get educated. Thanks for the discussion, gang.

J Boogie

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2020, 01:50:17 PM »
To share a little more, I would not add big to IIPR until COVID19 blows over. It's a marijuana growing facility triple net lease REIT with a very bright future but I think legal marijuana might struggle in a distancing environment, so it's possible that one or more of their tenants goes belly up. I am very bullish on IIPR because I see an endless appetite among marijuana entrepreneurs to try and build their empires. I don't know if their empires will pan out, but it seems there will always be another knowledgeable and ambitious stoner with too much optimism and capital ready to make a go of it if one of them folds.  And why not? after all, the reason the last guys' business went south is probably because he was a lazy stoner. Haha. Anyways, yeah, I'm long IIPR but cautious in this environment.


All my others are still more or less in hold territory, so maybe wait for another one of these big down days in the market. I know, we're not supposed to time the market but as long as we're picking stocks...why the hell not commit another MMM mortal sin :)




Rob_bob

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2020, 02:22:17 PM »
If you really want an individual Reit look at WPC, WY, DEA (rents to the US Government, they will pay their rent).  MPW rents to hospitals. O is the big name everyone loves but even now it's a little high, now last Monday I would have picked it up if I wanted more.
Three of those (WPC, DEA, MPW) have low beta (0.51 to 0.62), meaning they are less volatile than the market.  So I'm curious why Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) is included in the list, with it's volatile 1.71 beta.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/wy/quote

I didn't pick them because of their beta.  Weyerhahaeuser is a timber land/timber products company, it will be cyclical, and at the beat down price currently has a good yield that should be more covid-19 resistant than Reits that have more social contact exposure.

It really depends on your goals are, the OP just asked for a list to check out.

FREL is my Reit ETF choice.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 02:24:59 PM by Rob_bob »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2020, 03:06:55 PM »
I'm not a big fan of 90% of the REITs out there:
  • Shopping malls are dead, and shopping centers are overbuilt plus economically sensitive.
  • Office space? My entire company vacated our building and the effects have been --- none. Some jobs will never come back to an office.
  • Industrial / warehouse space? Not something I'd like to own going into a severe recession.
  • Mortgage REITs are a death wish. Defaults are about to exceed 2008.
This leaves residential and healthcare.

I'm evaluating residential REIT shares such as IRT, EQR, MAA, and NXRT. Some residential REITs have preferred shares yielding 7-8% such as IRET-C, MAA-I, and UMH-B, and these are a hard-to-resist way to lock in a retirement passive income stream with less risk than the common stock.

I think healthcare REITs have yet to hit bottom. Investors are unsure of the costs COVID-19 will impose on hospitals, clinics, and nursing homes. Many of the operators of these facilities were already leveraged to the hilt and financially shaky before they got swamped with the need to pay for extra equipment, overtime, etc. Senior living, rehab, and nursing home facilities might have significant vacancies due to deaths or relatives chosing at-home care, and capacity might be lost as empty rooms are quarantined. Yet, the bottom / peak panic will come (perhaps in 6 months) and at that time I'll be taking a look at OHI, VTR, SBRA, LTC, PEAK, HR, GMRE, HTA, and more.

Overall, if you have cash on the sidelines patience is probably a virtue. The pandemic is in its early phases, as is the recession. Yes, we just had a 20% bear trap / short squeeze, but we all know this pandemic will get worse through the end of 2020. Well, not all of us know #VeryStableGeniusAndCrew, but you get my point. At some point, you'll be able to buy OHI, SBRA, EQR, VTR, or MAA by selling a put for 10-15% of the price and getting assigned at an even cheaper price than you'd have been willing to buy them.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2020, 05:41:29 PM »
CB: i always appreciate your big picture view.
food for thought: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Fuzz

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2020, 05:50:22 PM »
At some point, you'll be able to buy OHI, SBRA, EQR, VTR, or MAA by selling a put for 10-15% of the price and getting assigned at an even cheaper price than you'd have been willing to buy them.

Can you explain this like I am 5?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2020, 08:06:03 AM »
CB: i always appreciate your big picture view.
food for thought: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Mid-April for a peak death rate? This is the most optimistic projection I've seen. I took a drive yesterday and saw packed megachurch parking lots, packed discount stores, packed Home Depot / Lowes, people lined up at fast food drive throughs handing their cards back and forth through the window... there are still relatively few people taking this seriously, even as we're doubling infections over and over again every few days.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2020, 09:04:26 AM »
At some point, you'll be able to buy OHI, SBRA, EQR, VTR, or MAA by selling a put for 10-15% of the price and getting assigned at an even cheaper price than you'd have been willing to buy them.

Can you explain this like I am 5?

Word says it's 10th grade level. Sorry, best I could do. :)

A put option is a contract that gives its owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock to someone else on or before the contract's expiration date and at the price agreed to in the contract. You can buy a put contract if you want the right to sell your stock to someone else in the future at a fixed "strike" price. On the flip side, you can sell a put contract and get cash in hand. In return you might be forced to buy someone else's stock in the future at the contract's "strike" price.

For example, healthcare REIT Ventas has a current price of $27.32 per share. If you owned 100 shares of Ventas worth $2732, and were worried that your stock might plummet, you might buy a put option. There are many possible contracts you could buy, but say you choose the contract expiring August 21, 2020 at the $25 strike price. The current price for that contract is about $6.65 per share, or $665 for one contract covering 100 shares. This contract would cost you a significant amount of money, but would insure you against even bigger losses. If Ventas goes below $25 per share, you would "exercise" your put and make the other person buy your shares for $25 each. In this way, you've put a floor on your losses. Ventas could go to zero and you'd still get to sell for $25. If Ventas stays above $25, you would choose not to exercise your right to make the other person buy your stock for $25, because you could get a better price in the open market.

Yet, that's some expensive insurance! The $665 cost for a contract protecting your position from being worth less than $2500 is 27% of the amount protected! In times of panic, like now, the price of options goes up.

Maybe instead of buying the put contract to protect your stock, you should get rid of the stock, set aside $2500 in cash, and then sell the put contract? The worst thing that could happen is you get $665 in cash given to you, and then you are forced to buy Ventas in August for less than it is currently worth ($25 instead of $27.32). Actually, another bad thing that could happen is Ventas zooms up to $50/share and the put option you sold expires worthless (because the person who bought your contract would rather sell their shares in the open market for $50 than sell to you for $25). Then you keep the $665 but missed out on much bigger gains from the stock's appreciation. A critic might say you took on most of the risk and only $665 reward.

My comment was that for people thinking long-term - and assuming Ventas doesn't go bankrupt - you could sell the put contract and either make 27% in 5 months or get to purchase a stock at a very cheap price and then wait for the recovery. In the example above, if you sold the put option, you'd get $665 in hand today and then you might or might not have to pay $2500 for the 100 shares in August. Thus if the contract is exercised, your overall cost would be 2500-665=1835. This would be the same end result as paying $18.35 per share for Ventas, instead of buying Ventas now for $27.32.

For someone getting close to retirement, this means you could obtain (27.32-18.35)/27.32 = 33% more shares than you could afford right now. For an REIT like Ventas, that means 33% more dividend income! So in theory, one could play a smallish retirement portfolio in a way that locks in higher income for retirement. Of course, one wouldn't bet it all on one stock or industry. Deals like this are all over the place amid the current crisis, so you'd build a diversified portfolio with dozens of stocks.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2020, 10:25:10 AM »
I'll try the 5 year old explanation, hope it helps despite being overly simple.

People who sell a company are afraid.  They want cash.  Later, they buy the company again.  If the company is cheaper, they save money.  Experts call this "a short sale".  Do you have all of the company you started with?   Nope, you're a bit short.

There's also some decent ELI5 explanations in the movie "The Big Short", which I enjoyed thoroughly.

J Boogie

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Re: Which REITs do you recommend ?
« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2020, 02:09:40 PM »
I'm not a big fan of 90% of the REITs out there:
  • Shopping malls are dead, and shopping centers are overbuilt plus economically sensitive.
  • Office space? My entire company vacated our building and the effects have been --- none. Some jobs will never come back to an office.
  • Industrial / warehouse space? Not something I'd like to own going into a severe recession.
  • Mortgage REITs are a death wish. Defaults are about to exceed 2008.
This leaves residential and healthcare.


Leaves out digital infrastructure too - however, most of the best names in this space have already recovered to their January levels. I'm not sure I'd be buying anything in this space right now but I am holding. CONE, DLR, CCI, AMT are the four that I own.

 

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