Author Topic: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package  (Read 2623 times)

v8rx7guy

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Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« on: March 14, 2020, 04:50:56 PM »
I have heard a lot of US fiscal stimulus package talk lately, sounds like it's most likely going to happen, possibly by as soon as April.  If you were in the position to propose a fiscal stimulus for the economy, what would you propose?  A check of a certain amount to all US citizens over a certain age, if so how much?  A tax credit?  3 month break from Mortgage & Student loan payments (heard other countries are proposing this one)?  Other ideas?  No stimulus at all, just let the economy go into recession or do what it does? 

Curious to hear what other Mustachians would propose given the opportunity.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2020, 06:09:17 PM »
A distinction might have to be made between renters and mortgagors.  Mortgagors could use deferment, renters not so much.

maizefolk

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2020, 06:13:48 PM »
I'd probably go with the cutting a check to every american route, similar but perhaps on a somewhat larger scale than what bush did back in 2008.

If people aren't working, a payroll tax cut won't effect them. Tweaks to taxation or monetary policy to put more money directly into the banks or other companies won't work because they're so focused on trying to deleverage/derisk while building up the reserves to survive a prolonged shutdown without bankruptcy the money wouldn't be spent.

Give money directly to people right now and most of them will spend really quickly on rent, food, childcare (if that's still open), etc. A lot of that money will stay in their communities and get spent a second or third time (by the landlord, or the employee at the grocery store or childcare center).

The biggest fiscal multiplier* I've ever seen for a type of government spending in the US is increases in food stamp payments. The biggest I've seen globally was in universal basic income experiments in Africa. This would be something akin to both of those.

*A bigger multiplier means the same amount of government spending creates more total economic activity, exactly what one wants in an economic stimulus measure.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2020, 01:40:01 AM »
A plan that will make it through the U.S. Congress?

"an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote to expand access to free testing, provide $1 billion in food aid and extend sick leave benefits to vulnerable Americans.  The bill's bipartisan passage, 363-40, was virtually assured when President Donald Trump backed the measure ..."
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/congress-coronavirus-stimulus-package-deal-friday-128140

I thought they wanted to include a free healthcare provision as well?  But I'm not seeing it mentioned.  It's really important to have free testing, so that people can learn if they're sick, and stay home... even if they refuse medical treatment owing to high costs.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2020, 01:55:04 AM »
Iím inclined to agree with maizeman. Iíve been giving specifics some thought. Write a check for 2 weeks of the average annual us income to everyone who filed or will file taxes for 2019. Double for married filing jointly. And the federal government should just flat pay for all virus testing and any quarantines. The bill should include a provision to pay the debt it requires  once things are back on track.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2020, 08:57:52 AM »
I also think if it happens, it will likely be in the form of a check for all citizens over 18 years of age.  I do think that the 3 month deferment of mortgages and/or student loans is an interesting option because of the massive amount of relief that this would provide a lot of families and would be way more than the government could provide in a check.  It also doesn't really add more to the federal defecit since it's just kicking the can down the road for those with loans?  It does, however, only benefit those who have mortgages and/or student loans so its really not a fair or viable proposal, so there would have to be some sort of an option for the rest.  Probably too complicated,  but an interesting concept that I would be curious to see how it works out elsewhere in the world.

Morning Glory

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2020, 09:26:26 AM »
I would like to see:
More funding for vaccine and general public health research
 
Government to cover hospital bills for anyone who becomes ill from the virus

Government to replace wages for anyone who is sick or quarantined, up to a reasonable limit such as 2x local minimum wage (rationale is that higher wage people usually have an employer benefit) This would also cover people who are laid off due to the virus.

Emergency Medicaid for anyone who is laid off

Food assistance for elderly, sick, and poor people- employ people and pay a reasonable wage to deliver food and supplies to people who are elderly, sick, or quarantined

Safe housing for homeless people and stranded travelers (emergency rent assistance to avoid eviction, hotel vouchers or new construction if necessary) this would also keep people employed

Punitive measures for assholes who buy up all the supplies and cause shortages

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2020, 09:29:58 AM »
The Lon deferments an interesting idea, but it does seem to get complicated fast. Is my rental loan referee? Do I then defer rent? is that up to me or am I required to? That ĒrentĒ includes ď utilizes so if Iím required to defer rent how much of it? Next do I stimulate the economy with money I donít pay on my mortgage? Probably only by buying equities.

shuffler

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2020, 10:28:46 AM »
Iím inclined to agree with maizeman. Iíve been giving specifics some thought. Write a check for 2 weeks of the average annual us income to everyone who filed or will file taxes for 2019.
I don't know if the logistics are practical, but I'd like to see that weighted towards healthcare workers, food production and distribution workers, etc. who continue on the job.
I would like to reward/incent those people to continue their work through this time of need.  I'm not among them, and would gladly give up my share.

MaaS

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2020, 11:00:57 AM »
I think writing a check to every taxpayer and/or the federal government writing checks to small businesses to make payroll are the options that actually might be successful.

A tax cut will only work if layoffs are prevented, obviously.

I do wonder what effect "helicopter money" in a time of (likely) supply shortages will have on inflation.


ice_beard

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2020, 12:11:32 PM »
Iím inclined to agree with maizeman. Iíve been giving specifics some thought. Write a check for 2 weeks of the average annual us income to everyone who filed or will file taxes for 2019.
I don't know if the logistics are practical, but I'd like to see that weighted towards healthcare workers, food production and distribution workers, etc. who continue on the job.
I would like to reward/incent those people to continue their work through this time of need.  I'm not among them, and would gladly give up my share.

I'm an critical care RN working in an area with active cases.  Honestly, the people I work with are the only ones acting rationally right now. I don't feel like I need any special reward.  I'm just happy my paycheck isn't disappearing and my schedule isn't getting completely screwed up.   We (nurses) are going on about our business like not much has changed.  I think it's because dealing with nasty infectious agents (MRSA, c. diff, ESBL, CRE, etc.) is a part of our day to day work and it seems every year it's something else.  The last scare was ebola (now that shit is SCARY) and we are always changing our practice to deal with what the current situation dictates.  Right now we are also dealing with the swirling miasma of information, disinformation and fear that is being amplified 100x by the ease of communication these days.  This, I think it what is making this seem so much worse than it actually is.

The hospitals are preparing for an influx and it may well happen.  But we are still going to work regularly and even, gasp, grocery shopping like normal!! 

The really concerning thing is if we get hammered with new, severe infections.  There is absolutely a limit to the number of critical care beds and the number of ventilators available.  There is a paper from 2007 that is rather poignant given our current situation....   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2206420/

Stimulus?  Lets get some responsible adults back in charge. 
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 01:01:24 PM by ice_beard »

dividendman

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2020, 12:38:06 PM »
How about infrastructure?

waltworks

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2020, 02:39:03 PM »
It's really pretty much going to have to be helicopter money in some form. Could be helicopter money to businesses to keep their people employed, could just be money straight to every tax filer, whatever.

You could make getting unemployment easier/quicker, but really, why bother? That'll take longer and be less effective. Yes, you'll end up giving money to some people who don't need or "deserve" it. C'est la vie.

Andrew Yang wins, we get to try UBI out for a spin!

-W

Joe Schmo

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2020, 03:11:28 PM »
Or cut interest rates to 0%...

dividendman

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2020, 03:14:32 PM »
That's monetary stimulus though, not sure it'll really help.

American GenX

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2020, 03:18:18 PM »
On the 0% interest comment, they just did:

Quote
In an emergency move Sunday, the Federal Reserve announced it is dropping its benchmark interest rate to zero and launching a new round of quantitative easing.

The QE program will entail $500 billion worth of asset purchases entailing Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2020, 03:50:05 PM »
If youíre looking for fast fiscal stimulus, a check for everyone who filed a tax return would do the trick. With an extra amount for all dependents listed on the return. Also, give a holiday for tax return filing and tax payments till fall.

maizefolk

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2020, 03:51:38 PM »
On the 0% interest comment, they just did:

Quote
In an emergency move Sunday, the Federal Reserve announced it is dropping its benchmark interest rate to zero and launching a new round of quantitative easing.

The QE program will entail $500 billion worth of asset purchases entailing Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

Yikes. I hadn't seen that, thanks for posting.

That means they've dropped the target rate from 1.5% to 0% in two steps a matter of a couple of weeks.

They also cut reserve requirements for banks to zero, and are dusting off the dollar swap lines the US fed used to save the european and asian banking industries back in the housing crisis.

And the total announced QE program will be $700B with $500B in treasures and $200B in mortgage backed securities.

I agree with dividendman that monetary stimulus may not do the trick, but the fact that the federal reserve is pulling out all the stops so fast suggests the data they're seeing points to the economy getting really bad.

waltworks

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2020, 04:38:37 PM »
I'm starting to wonder if we'd collectively be better off carrying on basically as normal - even if the medical system was overwhelmed and we lost a million people. If we end up triggering another great depression, IMO that's probably even worse (and will likely result in more overall deaths).

-Walt

dividendman

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2020, 04:56:50 PM »
I'm starting to wonder if we'd collectively be better off carrying on basically as normal - even if the medical system was overwhelmed and we lost a million people. If we end up triggering another great depression, IMO that's probably even worse (and will likely result in more overall deaths).

-Walt

I considered this as well. However, there is generally more outrage when people die of new things than existing things. Recessions kill people - but that's already known and the deaths are spread out and not easy to trace back to the recession, so I think it will be a hard sell.

I do see that the UK is not going through more social distancing as they have concluded that some level of herd immunity will be needed by people who get the virus and recover to really put this behind us. They concluded that if they put the social distancing measures in place now, people just won't abide by them in a few weeks and then it will just result in another spike of cases.

I think the UK is going to put the social distancing measures in place once a lot more people have it to both minimize the economic impact and to get the herd immunity.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2020, 06:37:30 PM »
I'm starting to wonder if we'd collectively be better off carrying on basically as normal - even if the medical system was overwhelmed and we lost a million people. If we end up triggering another great depression, IMO that's probably even worse (and will likely result in more overall deaths).

-Walt

I considered this as well. However, there is generally more outrage when people die of new things than existing things. Recessions kill people - but that's already known and the deaths are spread out and not easy to trace back to the recession, so I think it will be a hard sell.

I do see that the UK is not going through more social distancing as they have concluded that some level of herd immunity will be needed by people who get the virus and recover to really put this behind us. They concluded that if they put the social distancing measures in place now, people just won't abide by them in a few weeks and then it will just result in another spike of cases.

I think the UK is going to put the social distancing measures in place once a lot more people have it to both minimize the economic impact and to get the herd immunity.

The best response is probably going to depend on the culture.  For the US, I personally believe a hard lock down is the best response in part because we're probably going to end up with something like it anyway.  Why stop at half measures that will have a similar negative impact when full measures will save more lives? In for a dime, in for a dollar. 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2020, 08:39:02 PM »
Our (Australian) government has already provided one stimulus and is about to provide another.

Sigh, it's all just tax money that's going to have to be repaid down the line.

I'm in favour of targeted stimulus but handing cash to people to spend willy nilly is really just kicking the can down the road.

waltworks

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2020, 09:09:14 PM »
Our (Australian) government has already provided one stimulus and is about to provide another.

Sigh, it's all just tax money that's going to have to be repaid down the line.

I'm in favour of targeted stimulus but handing cash to people to spend willy nilly is really just kicking the can down the road.

What's your suggestion for targeted stimulus? I mean, if the problem is nobody spending money because they don't have income/jobs anymore, because nobody is spending money...

-W

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2020, 09:16:08 PM »
But there's nothing to suggest people don't have income/jobs.

I'd give a bit of a cash handout to everyone earning under $40k and I'd bolster unemployment support for those who lose their jobs and burn through all their savings. That way, there's a floor for the most vulnerable.

Other than that, I'd let the market correct itself - there'd be a big dip in shares and property but that would get us back to fundamentals and we wouldn't have a huge bill to pay later.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #24 on: March 15, 2020, 09:18:04 PM »
But there's nothing to suggest people don't have income/jobs.

I'd give a bit of a cash handout to everyone earning under $40k and I'd bolster unemployment support for those who lose their jobs and burn through all their savings. That way, there's a floor for the most vulnerable.

Other than that, I'd let the market correct itself - there'd be a big dip in shares and property but that would get us back to fundamentals and we wouldn't have a huge bill to pay later.

Well here in the USA in about a week I bet there will be millions of people without jobs in the entertainment, restaurant, construction, etc. industries.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #25 on: March 15, 2020, 09:21:47 PM »
So let's say we went down the defer mortgage payments for 3 months route.  Let's expand it a bit further to say landlords of rentals with mortgages must provide 3 months of rent free living.  After all their largest expense (paying the mortgage) would not be required during those 3 months.  Ok well that kind of makes sense until a landlord like myself would immediately think, "well there is more to my monthly expenses every month than just paying the mortgage.  I furnish the water/sewer and garbage bills to my tenants and also pay for lawncare".  True, but that probably won't make me foreclose on the property,  maybe that's what I need to chip in to help the country get thru this crisis, I could probably live with that.  Especially if the alternative was the cost of eviction and a potential vacancy.

So then what about landlords that dont have mortgages but and rely on their tenants rent for retirement income, what about them?  Or what about outright owners of large apartment complexes, how do they pay their overhead if they arent getting rent?  It gets tricky to say the least!

I love the idea of rent/mortgage deferment, because it's such a massive stimulus without adding defecit... but I'm just not sure I can wrap my head around how to do it without making things worse....
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 09:34:54 PM by v8rx7guy »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #26 on: March 15, 2020, 09:25:30 PM »
I don't believe in rent/mortgage deferment, at least not on a general scale. It's something landlords and tenants need to negotiate in concert. The government shouldn't just intervene and change the terms of market rates to benefit one side. Think of all the poor landlords who will be missing out on money/interest.

No need to fundamentally change the capitalist system that's served us well for so long.

dividendman

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2020, 09:35:47 PM »
I don't believe in rent/mortgage deferment, at least not on a general scale. It's something landlords and tenants need to negotiate in concert. The government shouldn't just intervene and change the terms of market rates to benefit one side. Think of all the poor landlords who will be missing out on money/interest.

No need to fundamentally change the capitalist system that's served us well for so long.

Regardless of what you believe, even "capitalist" governments have been intervening to change the terms of market rates for a long, long, time. Obviously whomever is on the losing end of the deal thinks it shouldn't happen but the government has determined in these cases the societal benefit outweighs sticking to the capitalist system.

waltworks

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #28 on: March 15, 2020, 09:49:42 PM »
But there's nothing to suggest people don't have income/jobs.

Well, as of today (in the US), I'd guess that 80+% of restaurant employees are imminently unemployed. Hairdressers, masseuses, personal trainers... toast. Airline employees are going on furlough in massive numbers. Gatherings over 50 people are actively discouraged here in UT now, so there goes every concert, sporting event, etc - nobody selling snacks, nobody taking tickets, nobody parking cars.

I could go on and on here. A HUGE chunk of the US population is vulnerable to even a short disruption in their income, and that's what happening starting Friday when a lot of them won't get a paycheck.

But yes, we could just liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.

-W

Morning Glory

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #29 on: March 16, 2020, 07:39:03 AM »
But there's nothing to suggest people don't have income/jobs.

Well, as of today (in the US), I'd guess that 80+% of restaurant employees are imminently unemployed. Hairdressers, masseuses, personal trainers... toast. Airline employees are going on furlough in massive numbers. Gatherings over 50 people are actively discouraged here in UT now, so there goes every concert, sporting event, etc - nobody selling snacks, nobody taking tickets, nobody parking cars.

I could go on and on here. A HUGE chunk of the US population is vulnerable to even a short disruption in their income, and that's what happening starting Friday when a lot of them won't get a paycheck.

But yes, we could just liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.

-W

Just don't get rid of the telephone sanitizers, or we'll all be toast😁

This situation is only temporary. Most of us can see the reason for giving cash assistance to people who are temporarily out of work. That isn't helicopter money, just some insurance to replace their normal paycheck.

Local governments could also hire some of
 these folks as temporary help to deliver food and provide care for elderly people in their homes. Hospitals and nursing homes may need extra workers too if the virus gets bad, even just to perform extra cleaning. Since schools and daycares will likely be closed, hospitals and local government could set up daycares for children of necessary workers. Companies like Fed ex may need to hire extra temporary help too.

Part of the increased sales of cleaning products is that people are using their sudden free time to clean their homes.

Omy

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #30 on: March 16, 2020, 08:07:36 AM »
"So then what about landlords that dont have mortgages but rely on their tenants rent for retirement income, what about them? "

This is us. We net $35k per year from our mortgage-free rentals which barely covers our household expenses now that we are FIREd. If the govt goes down the path of removing the requirement to pay rent, they should also be crediting landlords for lost rent.

I'm already mentally preparing for the day my tenants might call to say they are unable to pay. I would hope we would be able to work out deferred payments. One of my tenants is in the severely at risk category (over 65 with major health issues)...I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #31 on: March 16, 2020, 03:11:33 PM »
I'm starting to wonder if we'd collectively be better off carrying on basically as normal - even if the medical system was overwhelmed and we lost a million people. If we end up triggering another great depression, IMO that's probably even worse (and will likely result in more overall deaths).

-Walt

i've been saying this since january as well.

unless the whole world goes on lockdown (good luck) all of this is just smoke and mirrors. you have places that close for 1-2 months. then they reopen and, whoops, CV19 is here too. close it all back down. more huge disruptions. rinse and repeat for 18 months untill global vaccine developed.

(side benefit: maybe the antivax crowd will see some light???)

YYK

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #32 on: March 16, 2020, 07:47:43 PM »
(side benefit: maybe the antivax crowd will see some light???)

Even in the midst of measles outbreaks recently, there were apparently people advocating that measles is good for the immune system, no vaccine necessary.
So I won't hold my breath.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2020, 11:51:53 AM »
Well the house has officially passed the $2T stimulus... so fire up "the printing presses"!  Imagine a stack of $1M in cash (google it if you need to).  Now make as many stacks of that as are pixels on my computer screen (1920 x 1080).  That is what 2 TRILLION dollars would look like.

On a side note, I am happy that I submitted my taxes already for 2019... that gives us $500 extra for our son that was born in September.

maizefolk

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2020, 12:40:58 PM »
Well the house has officially passed the $2T stimulus... so fire up "the printing presses"!  Imagine a stack of $1M in cash (google it if you need to).  Now make as many stacks of that as are pixels on my computer screen (1920 x 1080).  That is what 2 TRILLION dollars would look like.

On a side note, I am happy that I submitted my taxes already for 2019... that gives us $500 extra for our son that was born in September.

The federal government is borrowing money to pay for the $2T stimulus, so no printing presses involved.

Now at the same time, the Federal Research has created or will create about $4T with asset purchases, loans, swap lines, etc. That's where the (digital equivalent of) printing presses are at play.

My guess is that we'll see a big enough drop in the velocity of money as individuals and companies try to build up their reserves against the coming recessions/depression that even this big increase in the total amount of dollars circulating in the economy won't be enough to provoke significant inflation overall inflation, but I could certainly be wrong.

My guess is that we'll see significant increases in prices for some things (like food* and healthcare) and flat or decreasing prices in most other spending areas.

*Don't think we're at all close to an actual shortage of food. But a lot of the cost of a loaf of bread you buy at the grocery store is labor. The new unemployment benefit that is part of the stimulus bill pays the equivalent of about $40k+/year ($20/hour). So it is going to be somewhat more expensive for grocery stores, food delivery companies, and amazon -- who usually pay less than $20/hour -- to increase the size of their workforces to deal with growing demand as america sifts almost entirely away from eating away from the home.

Roadrunner53

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #35 on: March 30, 2020, 02:46:53 PM »
Does anyone know if this will have any effect on tax refunds for 2020 tax filing. Will this stimulus money reduce what we might normally get back?

For example: If we normally get $2,200 back from Fed., and a husband and wife get $2,400 stimulus money now, when we file 2020 taxes would we owe IRS $200 since we already got $2,400?

I am confused on this because i read an article and it said something like this stimulus money was an advance on 2020 refunds. I probably read it wrong.

waltworks

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #36 on: March 30, 2020, 02:54:05 PM »
No, it's free helicopter money.

-W

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #37 on: March 30, 2020, 04:12:56 PM »
As I understood it the money is a credit against 2020 taxes, so as long as your 2020 income is within the limits you get to keep the money tax free. However if you receive a credit based on previous years tax rate and then make more than the income limits in 2020 you wouldn't qualify for the credit anymore and you'd have to pay it back.

If someone has a better understanding I'd love to hear it. Seems like we're just making this up as we go along at this point.

maizefolk

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #38 on: March 30, 2020, 04:28:53 PM »
As I understood it the money is a credit against 2020 taxes, so as long as your 2020 income is within the limits you get to keep the money tax free. However if you receive a credit based on previous years tax rate and then make more than the income limits in 2020 you wouldn't qualify for the credit anymore and you'd have to pay it back.

If someone has a better understanding I'd love to hear it. Seems like we're just making this up as we go along at this point.

It's worth checking out this other thread on the stimulus checks specifically, but my understanding from people who know more about this than me is is that even if your income increases in 2020, you don't have to pay the stimulus check back.

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #39 on: March 30, 2020, 04:33:25 PM »
Thanks, I hadn't seen that thread yet. Might have just helped my brother out a bit.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #40 on: March 31, 2020, 03:03:53 AM »
you have places that close for 1-2 months. then they reopen and, whoops, CV19 is here too. close it all back down. more huge disruptions. rinse and repeat for 18 months untill global vaccine developed.
I just don't follow how a second wave, when every country has built up resources and knows what to do, will match the first.

In their first wave, Italy imported cases from across Europe, and kept flights open to visitors from China.  That resulted in lock downs, 100k infected, and 11k dead and counting.  To me, it makes sense Italy would react differently to the second wave.

On March 5th the U.S. had just performed it's thousandth COVID-19 test.  At the end of March (today), the U.S. is on track to pass 1 million tests performed.  That's 3 orders of magnitude in one month.  Korea brought it's outbreak to a standstill with aggressive testing, while the U.S. didn't.  With later waves of the virus, both countries will begin armed with significant numbers of tests to run, and protective gear stockpiled.  I don't see things playing out the same way in the U.S. twice, either.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #41 on: March 31, 2020, 10:07:18 AM »
you have places that close for 1-2 months. then they reopen and, whoops, CV19 is here too. close it all back down. more huge disruptions. rinse and repeat for 18 months untill global vaccine developed.
I just don't follow how a second wave, when every country has built up resources and knows what to do, will match the first.

In their first wave, Italy imported cases from across Europe, and kept flights open to visitors from China.  That resulted in lock downs, 100k infected, and 11k dead and counting.  To me, it makes sense Italy would react differently to the second wave.

On March 5th the U.S. had just performed it's thousandth COVID-19 test.  At the end of March (today), the U.S. is on track to pass 1 million tests performed.  That's 3 orders of magnitude in one month.  Korea brought it's outbreak to a standstill with aggressive testing, while the U.S. didn't.  With later waves of the virus, both countries will begin armed with significant numbers of tests to run, and protective gear stockpiled.  I don't see things playing out the same way in the U.S. twice, either.
just because you test more, doesn't mean the virus magically stops spreading. if you resume congregating again, it spreads again. simple. people are asymptomatic for days.

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Re: Best Options for US Fiscal Stimulus Package
« Reply #42 on: March 31, 2020, 11:36:36 AM »
you have places that close for 1-2 months. then they reopen and, whoops, CV19 is here too. close it all back down. more huge disruptions. rinse and repeat for 18 months untill global vaccine developed.
I just don't follow how a second wave, when every country has built up resources and knows what to do, will match the first.

In their first wave, Italy imported cases from across Europe, and kept flights open to visitors from China.  That resulted in lock downs, 100k infected, and 11k dead and counting.  To me, it makes sense Italy would react differently to the second wave.

On March 5th the U.S. had just performed it's thousandth COVID-19 test.  At the end of March (today), the U.S. is on track to pass 1 million tests performed.  That's 3 orders of magnitude in one month.  Korea brought it's outbreak to a standstill with aggressive testing, while the U.S. didn't.  With later waves of the virus, both countries will begin armed with significant numbers of tests to run, and protective gear stockpiled.  I don't see things playing out the same way in the U.S. twice, either.
just because you test more, doesn't mean the virus magically stops spreading. if you resume congregating again, it spreads again. simple. people are asymptomatic for days.

Testing for antibodies might allow testing to "magically stop the spreading". I've read multiple accounts now those tests being developed so it's only a matter of manufacture and distribution. Once we know with relative certainty that someone with antibodies and can't spread it they can get back to life. Also, once we start testing the general population for antibodies we will have a meaningful estimate of when we will have some kind of herd immunity. Per NPR China is not including people who tested positive but were asymptomatic in their total cases. The article didn't mention if other countries were or not.