Author Topic: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition  (Read 8637 times)

Midwest_Handlebar

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #50 on: July 20, 2022, 08:38:09 AM »
Our equities are down ~$200k, but net worth is up $65k for the year. A large real estate allocation and continuing to buy throughout helped.

PDXTabs

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #51 on: July 20, 2022, 09:04:51 PM »
I don't really know. I do know that my first day in my life having $300k in equities was 8/11/2021 and my first day getting back to that number was today in spite of dumping ~$45k into my accounts.

vand

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #52 on: October 31, 2022, 03:25:02 PM »
Meta's continual implosion means that Zuckerberg's net worth is down from about $140bn to $34bn in the space of a year or so. 

Surely that has to go down as some sort of world record for the largest dollar amount loss in wealth for a single individual within 12 months...

PDXTabs

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2022, 05:11:13 PM »
Meta's continual implosion means that Zuckerberg's net worth is down from about $140bn to $34bn in the space of a year or so. 

Surely that has to go down as some sort of world record for the largest dollar amount loss in wealth for a single individual within 12 months...

To put that into perspective that loss of $106B is approximately equal to the GDP of New Hampshire or Idaho for a year. Or the combined GDP of Alaska and Vermont.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP

bananas

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #54 on: October 31, 2022, 07:35:31 PM »
Meta's continual implosion means that Zuckerberg's net worth is down from about $140bn to $34bn in the space of a year or so. 

I remember not that long ago reading articles about the terrible things Zuck was doing at Facebook and all the corrosive effects it was having on society, and getting so mad. But my anger is rapidly fading away and being replaced with more of a smirking schadenfreude. Really feels like Meta has rapidly picked up the stench of a sinking company that can't replicate its big one-hit wonder, and I love the continued drumbeat of WSJ articles about the company's failures, including the latest about how no one who works there wants to use horizon worlds (or whatever it's called).

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #55 on: October 31, 2022, 08:12:33 PM »
How long do you expect schadenfreude to last?

Over the next 5 years, I expect Facebook/Meta/Instagram to beat the S&P 500.  I bought shares of META despite disliking Facebook and their metaverse.  When advertising picks up, I expect META and GOOG will both do well.
META ($93.16, -74% off 52 week high)
"SPY" ($386.21, -20% off 52 week high)

Consider the powerhouse of online retail and cloud: Amazon, which is -46% off its 52 week high.  Jeff Bezos lost slightly less than $100 billion, and in a nod to the thread title ("2022 FIRE Edition") he recently retired.  But I doubt the #1 online retailer and #1 cloud provider will stay -46% down when signs of a recovery emerge.

bananas

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2022, 03:58:17 AM »
How long do you expect schadenfreude to last?

Over the next 5 years, I expect Facebook/Meta/Instagram to beat the S&P 500.  I bought shares of META despite disliking Facebook and their metaverse.  When advertising picks up, I expect META and GOOG will both do well.
META ($93.16, -74% off 52 week high)
"SPY" ($386.21, -20% off 52 week high)

Consider the powerhouse of online retail and cloud: Amazon, which is -46% off its 52 week high.  Jeff Bezos lost slightly less than $100 billion, and in a nod to the thread title ("2022 FIRE Edition") he recently retired.  But I doubt the #1 online retailer and #1 cloud provider will stay -46% down when signs of a recovery emerge.

My schadenfreude isn't an investing strategy, just a momentary feeling. I agree there's a good chance Meta will beat the S&P over the next 5 years. And despite my distaste, I own plenty of Meta via index funds. I'm happy for them to continue making me money.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #57 on: November 01, 2022, 08:00:45 AM »
We're off topic, but Meta is an enigma to me. They are trying to build a VR platform to replace their cell phone based game platform known as Facebook, and yet they seem not to be obtaining as much interest as Roblox. Somehow, billions of dollars invested in Occulus EIGHT YEARS AGO(!) have yet to yield a single hit. Kids are still playing Playstation, which doesn't give them headaches.

I've not used Occulus, but this is not the usual trajectory for a breakthrough product. The Nintendo Wii was an immediate hit, as was the iPhone, as was the original and Super Nintendo long before that. What about this product is so deficient that it is failing to capture the imagination like Grand Theft Auto or even Minecraft? Also there's the ~25 year history of VR being the next big thing, and that day never seems to come. Flat screens remain more addictive.

Investors who have bid Meta down to a PE ratio below 9 seem to have lost faith in VR and Zuck's obsession. That said, I think Meta has deep enough pockets to eventually design a good product if anyone will ever buy it.

grantmeaname

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #58 on: November 01, 2022, 09:23:50 AM »
The metaverse is not a game. The hope is that the whole internet becomes more sensorially rich and immersive and Meta can be the middleman or operating system of that world much like iOS and Android today. The problem is there is no killer application in the metaverse pulling consumers there - Decentraland, a platform of virtual worlds, had ~37 daily active users this summer. Fortnite's social-only islands and Roblox have proven out that the experience can be good if and when people show up, and Microsoft Flight Simulator is an example of absolutely jaw-dropping performance in a niche application, but there has been no must-have demand driver for the mass market (or, honestly, even the early adopter/leading edge).

lowroller4111

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2022, 10:17:35 AM »
Started the year at $1.13M, contributed $116K to my Portfolio this year, current value as of today is $1.023M

Not a good year, down 18.29%


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2022, 08:12:24 PM »
We're off topic, but Meta is an enigma to me. They are trying to build a VR platform to replace their cell phone based game platform known as Facebook, and yet they seem not to be obtaining as much interest as Roblox.
If you view Roblox as a threat to Meta, I think its moves make more sense.  Children on Roblox stick with it as teenagers, so if that continues it spells trouble for Facebook and Instagram (both owned by Meta).  Roblox features virtual currency - Meta tried to create "Diem".  Roblox has games and experiences - a metaverse, and Meta has tried to create a metaverse.  Viewed as a struggle for survival, the excessive spending ($36 billion since 2019) makes more sense.



ChpBstrd

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2022, 09:24:55 PM »
We're off topic, but Meta is an enigma to me. They are trying to build a VR platform to replace their cell phone based game platform known as Facebook, and yet they seem not to be obtaining as much interest as Roblox.
If you view Roblox as a threat to Meta, I think its moves make more sense.  Children on Roblox stick with it as teenagers, so if that continues it spells trouble for Facebook and Instagram (both owned by Meta).  Roblox features virtual currency - Meta tried to create "Diem".  Roblox has games and experiences - a metaverse, and Meta has tried to create a metaverse.  Viewed as a struggle for survival, the excessive spending ($36 billion since 2019) makes more sense.
Yes, exactly.

I also see Facebook / Instagram as multiplayer video games where people compete for the esteem of others in a world of text, video, images, and memes.

The difference is Roblox is starting with the young customers, and Meta is trying to build the platform that will steal those customers to their video game (recall the history of consoles). Meta has the much harder task here, so I see an acquisition in the future. Even as beaten down as it is, Meta has 10x the market cap of Roblox, and could easily swallow them with the $41.7B cash and short term equivalents in their treasury. This would put Meta in a position of having both the platform/equipment and the customer base, with their leading VR tech being the moat.

vand

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #62 on: November 08, 2022, 09:31:47 AM »
Meta's continual implosion means that Zuckerberg's net worth is down from about $140bn to $34bn in the space of a year or so. 

Surely that has to go down as some sort of world record for the largest dollar amount loss in wealth for a single individual within 12 months...


What's more crazy - that Elon has probably got this beat by now (anything north of $120bn I reckon given Tesla's fall from peak), or that he's still the richest person in the world??

ChpBstrd

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #63 on: November 08, 2022, 03:14:36 PM »
Meta's continual implosion means that Zuckerberg's net worth is down from about $140bn to $34bn in the space of a year or so. 

Surely that has to go down as some sort of world record for the largest dollar amount loss in wealth for a single individual within 12 months...
What's more crazy - that Elon has probably got this beat by now (anything north of $120bn I reckon given Tesla's fall from peak), or that he's still the richest person in the world??
I read this as good news, because I'm not all that into serfdom.

EchoStache

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #64 on: November 08, 2022, 04:13:58 PM »
Meta's continual implosion means that Zuckerberg's net worth is down from about $140bn to $34bn in the space of a year or so. 

Surely that has to go down as some sort of world record for the largest dollar amount loss in wealth for a single individual within 12 months...
What's more crazy - that Elon has probably got this beat by now (anything north of $120bn I reckon given Tesla's fall from peak), or that he's still the richest person in the world??
I read this as good news, because I'm not all that into serfdom.

Wow.  I've actually had this in my head lately, that today's society is essentially a modern day form of  medieval society's serfs and nobles.  The nobles are the ultra wealthy CEO's/bankers etc, and the serfs are uber consumers that don't even realize they are the serfs as they go through life as a slave to their jobs for 50 years to fuel their uber consumer lifestyle while making others filthy rich.  The nobles have simply figured out how to make people choose serfdom voluntarily.  The serfs of today certainly lead a pretty luxurious life, but they do so at the cost of a lifetime of servitude.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2022, 04:15:46 PM by UltraStache »

Heckler

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #65 on: November 08, 2022, 07:07:09 PM »
Looking back on 1 year performance, our portfolio is flat.  Literally flat: +0.095% after dividends and contributions.

So, I'm feeling pretty good about my 30/70 asset allocation, currently sitting at 6.5% cash, 26.6% fixed and 66.9% global equity.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2022, 07:18:49 PM by Heckler »

ATtiny85

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #66 on: November 09, 2022, 06:36:23 AM »
The metaverse is not a game. The hope is that the whole internet becomes more sensorially rich and immersive and Meta can be the middleman or operating system of that world much like iOS and Android today. The problem is there is no killer application in the metaverse pulling consumers there - Decentraland, a platform of virtual worlds, had ~37 daily active users this summer. Fortnite's social-only islands and Roblox have proven out that the experience can be good if and when people show up, and Microsoft Flight Simulator is an example of absolutely jaw-dropping performance in a niche application, but there has been no must-have demand driver for the mass market (or, honestly, even the early adopter/leading edge).

Opinions vary, but nothing I have heard about the nuttaverse sounds like anything but a game. A useful game in some aspects, but still a game. My hope is that it takes off and more and more people sit in their basements full time. Less traffic out in the actual world where I exist is a dream.

ATtiny85

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #67 on: November 09, 2022, 06:38:42 AM »
Looking back on 1 year performance, our portfolio is flat.  Literally flat: +0.095% after dividends and contributions.

So, I'm feeling pretty good about my 30/70 asset allocation, currently sitting at 6.5% cash, 26.6% fixed and 66.9% global equity.

Nicely done!

It will come down to photo finish for us to get to flat. Need a little more lift from the market in the next month.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #68 on: November 09, 2022, 07:18:05 AM »
Meta's continual implosion means that Zuckerberg's net worth is down from about $140bn to $34bn in the space of a year or so. 

Surely that has to go down as some sort of world record for the largest dollar amount loss in wealth for a single individual within 12 months...
What's more crazy - that Elon has probably got this beat by now (anything north of $120bn I reckon given Tesla's fall from peak), or that he's still the richest person in the world??
I read this as good news, because I'm not all that into serfdom.

Wow.  I've actually had this in my head lately, that today's society is essentially a modern day form of  medieval society's serfs and nobles.  The nobles are the ultra wealthy CEO's/bankers etc, and the serfs are uber consumers that don't even realize they are the serfs as they go through life as a slave to their jobs for 50 years to fuel their uber consumer lifestyle while making others filthy rich.  The nobles have simply figured out how to make people choose serfdom voluntarily.  The serfs of today certainly lead a pretty luxurious life, but they do so at the cost of a lifetime of servitude.
Yes, but if you ever try to convince anyone of this, they'll point to the leased luxury SUV in their driveway and their double-garage full of junk as counter-evidence. It's like "see, I work 65 hour weeks for the carrot, not to avoid the stick! I have status among my peers who I never see because we're all at work."

grantmeaname

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #69 on: November 09, 2022, 12:00:52 PM »
Opinions vary, but nothing I have heard about the nuttaverse sounds like anything but a game.
I believe that opinions on this do not vary among those who have thought hard about this at all. I've written a couple dozen pages on the metaverse professionally and here are the non-asinine use cases for the metaverse that are not games that come to mind on ten seconds of thought:
teleconferencing
AR worker training with haptic feedback
virtual stores/showrooms/dealerships
Data visualization for scientific datasets
Digital twins (of factories, ports, tourist attractions, an apartment you want to rent)
psychotherapy and digital pharmaceuticals
Viewing sporting events, concerts, or other live events
just hanging out with no "gameplay loop" designed by the developer
« Last Edit: November 09, 2022, 12:05:08 PM by grantmeaname »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #70 on: November 09, 2022, 07:54:44 PM »
Opinions vary, but nothing I have heard about the nuttaverse sounds like anything but a game.
I believe that opinions on this do not vary among those who have thought hard about this at all. I've written a couple dozen pages on the metaverse professionally and here are the non-asinine use cases for the metaverse that are not games that come to mind on ten seconds of thought:
teleconferencing
AR worker training with haptic feedback
virtual stores/showrooms/dealerships
Data visualization for scientific datasets
Digital twins (of factories, ports, tourist attractions, an apartment you want to rent)
psychotherapy and digital pharmaceuticals
Viewing sporting events, concerts, or other live events
just hanging out with no "gameplay loop" designed by the developer
UmmmÖ porn?
Someone had to say it.

grantmeaname

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #71 on: November 09, 2022, 09:17:14 PM »
lol, that did not go in the paper

ATtiny85

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #72 on: November 10, 2022, 05:26:09 AM »
Opinions vary, but nothing I have heard about the nuttaverse sounds like anything but a game.
I believe that opinions on this do not vary among those who have thought hard about this at all. I've written a couple dozen pages on the metaverse professionally and here are the non-asinine use cases for the metaverse that are not games that come to mind on ten seconds of thought:
teleconferencing
AR worker training with haptic feedback
virtual stores/showrooms/dealerships
Data visualization for scientific datasets
Digital twins (of factories, ports, tourist attractions, an apartment you want to rent)
psychotherapy and digital pharmaceuticals
Viewing sporting events, concerts, or other live events
just hanging out with no "gameplay loop" designed by the developer

Looks like a lot of games/social crap in there to me. The therapy stuff is great and hope it helps people. Some of it looks like more ways to try and sell stuff I donít need (and wonít buy). And a number of those are things we already do at my company, and of course those have evolved over the decades and any new tools will be welcomed and used that help us be better. Not sure why I would call it anything other than Computer Aided Design (CAD) just like we have for my entire career.

Again, I am very excited about the possibility of many people sitting in their basement with a headset on.

grantmeaname

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #73 on: November 10, 2022, 05:44:43 AM »
Ok, you're moving the goalpost from 'games' (which is a well defined word with an actual specific meaning) to 'things ATiny85 doesn't like'.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #74 on: November 10, 2022, 06:10:47 AM »
Ok, you're moving the goalpost from 'games' (which is a well defined word with an actual specific meaning) to 'things ATiny85 doesn't like'.
Looks that way to me, too, if I may pile on.

But I'm more interested in how you think the metaverse plays out, and which companies other than Meta and Roblox are in the running.  That might require another thread, though, and you will get a lot more responses like the above if you create a thread about the metaverse.  Maybe if you name it "What is Meta doing?" it will seem more natural ...

Facebook bought Instagram, which is now roughly half their business.  My layperson view is that Roblox has figured out the metaverse better than Meta, and Mr Zuckerberg is terrified of losing everything over the next decade or so.  He's spent tens of billions on it - actually much more than the current market cap of Roblox ($19 billion).  I suspect if Congress is split, and economic conditions start improving, he'll consider buying Roblox (RBLX).  Except for the price tag, that's what he did a decade ago, buying Instagram for $1 billion (which now has earnings in the tens of billions!).

ATtiny85

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #75 on: November 10, 2022, 06:11:22 AM »
Ok, you're moving the goalpost from 'games' (which is a well defined word with an actual specific meaning) to 'things ATiny85 doesn't like'.

Sorry, "opinions vary" must mean different things to different people. Your list was nice and provided good breadth of angles to it. I was not aware of how wide the umbrella is considered by some, or how wide the net is trying to be cast by entities (probably wanting to make sure they can get some profit form it.). So I would change my original comment from "...nothing I have heard..." to "...a lot of what I have heard..."

And "game" is a pretty widely defined word, and can be in the eye of the beholder. The cat is playing a game, but pretty sure the mouse does not view it that way.

Anyway, I'll wipe the foam off this and stuff it in the orange box which makes it look black.

Heckler

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Re: Biggest Loser: The 2022 FIRE Edition
« Reply #76 on: November 10, 2022, 06:29:03 PM »
Looking back on 1 year performance, our portfolio is flat.  Literally flat: +0.095% after dividends and contributions.

So, I'm feeling pretty good about my 30/70 asset allocation, currently sitting at 6.5% cash, 26.6% fixed and 66.9% global equity.

Nicely done!

It will come down to photo finish for us to get to flat. Need a little more lift from the market in the next month.

Oops, I waited 2 days, and now it's +3.1%  I guess you win.