Australian Investing Thread

[hm520]

Hey guys,

I'm sure this is a question that's been previously answered but I'm unable to find it within this thread (and I've read a fair bit of it).

Currently wondering about the major differences between a VAS + VGS vs VAS + VEU + VTS portfolio. The first is a lot more convenient and has less brokerage although seems to not have done was well in the last few years based on "historical returns".

As VTS and VEU are both US domiciled, are there any negative implications associated with this? Dividend reinvestment isn't an issue. This would be my investment for hte next >20 years, so tax considerations would be important.

Regards

[FFA]

Yeah the VTS/VEU US domicile creates a bit more regulatory risk (assuming you're an Australian resident). Often mentioned is US estate taxes. I don't think it's an issue for Australian residents due to the tax treaty but do your own research, and it's always subject to change. VGS is Oz domicile so avoids that.

The key diff is VGS has no emerging markets, whereas VEU does about 20% I believe. So a proper comparison is VGS/VGE vs VTS/VEU. Now you have similar complexity / # of funds... Or you can go without emerging markets.

Also no DRP's on VTS/VEU as you mentioned that's not an issue for you though.

VGS fee is a bit higher but hopefully will come down over time towards VTS/VEU. The real, after tax gap is probably less too as others have explained VEU will have some withholding taxes internally that will not get credited, whereas VGS picks up all the foreign tax credit offsets.

personally I'd choose VGS (and VGE if you want emerging markets).

[kaetana]

I know a lot of people would recommend the Vanguard Retail fund but I would stay away from it. Reason being the 0.9% management fee. Vanguard are a great company and I invest through them (wholesale fund) but their retail fund in Australia is just way too expensive.

Yes the retail funds start off high, but the management fee has a sliding scale.  Taking the Retail High Growth Life Strategy Fund, it's 0.9% on the first $50k, then 0.6% for the next $50k and then 0.35% for amounts over $100k.  The 0.9% is a bit high I'd agree, and it still averages out as a higher fee, but it may suit some investors who don't qualify for a wholesale fund, and it's a rather painless way of getting your toe in the water.

For those just getting into investing, it may be better to be invested with a slightly less optimal fee, then not invested.  Just remember to review occasionally!

It's worth repeating as well that although the Vanguard Wholesale fund has a published $500k minimum initial investment, they don't necessarily enforce it. But speak to them first.

They definitely don’t enforce it. $100k is the minimum. Source: called them and invested $100k last month.

+1. I held off for a long time because I thought I needed the $500k, but I called them a few months ago and just asked if $100k would be enough to get the wholesale rates and they said yes, certainly. Sent through the application and it was set up pretty quickly. No wheedling or hassle at all.

[BRAFRA]

If the Australian dollar becomes weaker, the impact will be positive on VGS ?

Simple scenario as an example:
the AUD drops 10% compared to all other currencies in 1 day. Will there be a ~10% increase of VGS ?

[mjr]

Simple answer: yes

[PDM]

If the Australian dollar becomes weaker, the impact will be positive on VGS ?

Simple scenario as an example:
the AUD drops 10% compared to all other currencies in 1 day. Will there be a ~10% increase of VGS ?

There is definitely an impact. I've noticed days where it tracks movements almost exactly. But other times it seems to not impact. Lately VGS has been doing well while the AUD is rising against the USD.

[MrThatsDifferent]

Hey all, apologies in advance for the dumb question: I’m considering buying property for the first time and have been reading about keeping money in an offset account. Currently, I pay money into my investment account after each fortnightly pay so I don’t really keep any money in savings. If I save the money in the offset account it’s not making me money in the investment account. What’s the strategy for this or does it make more sense to grow the money in the investment account and then pay a lump sum later to reduce the mortgage? Or, should I not even care about paying down the mortgage?

[Llewellyn2006]

Hey all, apologies in advance for the dumb question: I’m considering buying property for the first time and have been reading about keeping money in an offset account. Currently, I pay money into my investment account after each fortnightly pay so I don’t really keep any money in savings. If I save the money in the offset account it’s not making me money in the investment account. What’s the strategy for this or does it make more sense to grow the money in the investment account and then pay a lump sum later to reduce the mortgage? Or, should I not even care about paying down the mortgage?

The "pay off/don't pay off" the mortgage is the subject of endless debate on here so it really comes down to personal choice. But the thinking behind putting money in an offset account is that the amount in the offset account is deducted from the total mortgage and interest is charged on what's left. Effectively you will be getting a return of whatever your mortgage interest rate is on the funds in the offset account. For example, if your mortgage is $500k and you have $100k in an offset account, you only pay interest on $400k but you won't earn any physical interest on the $100k in the offset.

If you can earn a better % than your mortgage interest rate by investing the money you would have in the offset account, then you should probably do that, otherwise it's more beneficial in the offset account.

[deborah]

It's even better that that, because the interest on the money you put into your offset account isn't taxed, so you get extra from your offset than you would from investment income (even superannuation - where income is taxed at 15%).

[marty998]

Agree - the Vanguard retail fund would be best (not the ETF, as brokerage will eat away chunk everytime you go to buy).

For the 16 year old, be careful of punitive marginal tax rates. Minors get the first $416 of investment income tax free and then after that get taxed quite heavily (at 66%, reducing to 49% after about $1000 of income). The idea is to discourage parents from putting assets in the name of their kids and getting the benefits of more tax free thresholds and reduced marginal rates.....

Ah I didn't know that - back in my day we were paid cash in hand for teenager jobs!  Does the heavy tax also apply to actual on-the-books declared wages earned by the 16 year old (he works casual shifts at a fast food franchise)?

For the 18 year old, it looks as though from everyone's advice that he should save up parcels of $1000 at a time and put that in Vanguard ETF with the lowest brokerage fee we can find.

@Liesel sorry for the late reply.

Earned income from wages is taxed at normal rates (first $18,200 tax free etc). It's only investment income that is treated differently. But  the ATO will scrutinise scenarios where you'd employed your kid in the family business paying them $50 an hour for example :)

[MrThatsDifferent]

Ok, would love to hear your thoughts: I’m looking at buying a property in Sydney for $620k, but hadn’t planned this. I’ve been putting all my money in Vanguard. I’m not sure if I could pull all of it out and do the 20% deposit, some and do the 10% or nothing and do the 5%?  I’d love to leave my money in Vanguard and then keep adding small amounts and then attack the mortgage. I know, I know all the reasons to not pay the mortgage down aggressively but I feel like Aus is a bit different. I want to retire in 5 years and want this paid off while I have income coming in.

Anyways, would you dip into your investment account or go 5%? Our other option is to buy in a year and save up more but we’ve found an ideal, unique place that we have a shot at and hate to pass it up if we can grab it.

[PDM]

$620 - is it an apartment? The Sydney apartment market is looking a bit shakey based on everything I've read. It also looks like across the board prices have flattened (https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/01/corelogic-weekly-australian-house-price-update-falls-coast-coast/) sign up for free trial. Sydney is also coming off some crazy growth.

[Llewellyn2006]

I know, I know all the reasons to not pay the mortgage down aggressively but I feel like Aus is a bit different. I want to retire in 5 years and want this paid off while I have income coming in.

Anyways, would you dip into your investment account or go 5%? Our other option is to buy in a year and save up more but we’ve found an ideal, unique place that we have a shot at and hate to pass it up if we can grab it.

Without wanting to reignite the whole pay off/don't pay off debate I think the highlighted part is really important and I agree because the US and Australian markets ARE different - we can't deduct mortgage interest on our PPR from taxable income over here which would be an incentive to pay the minimum amount and claim maximum interest.

Anyway, back to your question. I think if the property is what you're really after and you can do it with a 5% deposit while still investing money in something else then go for it, although I think taking advantage of an offset account is worth considering too. Maybe a mix of both? Good luck.

[middo]

Ok, would love to hear your thoughts: I’m looking at buying a property in Sydney for $620k, but hadn’t planned this. I’ve been putting all my money in Vanguard. I’m not sure if I could pull all of it out and do the 20% deposit, some and do the 10% or nothing and do the 5%?  I’d love to leave my money in Vanguard and then keep adding small amounts and then attack the mortgage. I know, I know all the reasons to not pay the mortgage down aggressively but I feel like Aus is a bit different. I want to retire in 5 years and want this paid off while I have income coming in.

Anyways, would you dip into your investment account or go 5%? Our other option is to buy in a year and save up more but we’ve found an ideal, unique place that we have a shot at and hate to pass it up if we can grab it.

Is this as an investment or for living in?  Personally I would say go for it if it is to be your home.  As an investment I would say the long term growth of property prices in Australia does not match the long term growth of shares.   Sydney is probably going nowhere for a long time as well.  I would stay in the vanguard instead.  Just the opinion of someone who invested in property and is now slowly trying to reduce the amount we have.

[BRAFRA]

I have money sitting in an account in Europe in EUR and plan to invest in VGS with dividends reinvested.

Better buy the equivalent of VGS in EUR to avoid the ~0.6% of commission from money exchange via online platforms ?
I found an offer with a big dog for 0.2% annual fee compared to 0.18% with Vanguard.

I won't miss franking credits as VGS excludes Aussie shares, correct ?

This investment will obviously be exposed to the evolution of the EUR / AUD exchange rate.

[MrThatsDifferent]

$620 - is it an apartment? The Sydney apartment market is looking a bit shakey based on everything I've read. It also looks like across the board prices have flattened (https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/01/corelogic-weekly-australian-house-price-update-falls-coast-coast/) sign up for free trial. Sydney is also coming off some crazy growth.

Yes, $620k for a 1 bed, 1 bath, no car within a 25 min bike ride to the cbd.

[MrThatsDifferent]

I know, I know all the reasons to not pay the mortgage down aggressively but I feel like Aus is a bit different. I want to retire in 5 years and want this paid off while I have income coming in.

Anyways, would you dip into your investment account or go 5%? Our other option is to buy in a year and save up more but we’ve found an ideal, unique place that we have a shot at and hate to pass it up if we can grab it.

Without wanting to reignite the whole pay off/don't pay off debate I think the highlighted part is really important and I agree because the US and Australian markets ARE different - we can't deduct mortgage interest on our PPR from taxable income over here which would be an incentive to pay the minimum amount and claim maximum interest.

Anyway, back to your question. I think if the property is what you're really after and you can do it with a 5% deposit while still investing money in something else then go for it, although I think taking advantage of an offset account is worth considering too. Maybe a mix of both? Good luck.

Well, my thinking is, we are on good salaries. We could pay this down to around $150k in 5 years and live in it until then, with our money sitting in an offset.  I’ll add $500 a fortnight to Vanguard. Once we pay it down, we rent it out as an investment property while we geo-arbitrage overseas. It will then Provide a steady flow of income and I’ll invest money back in Vanguard and live off the rest.

[MrThatsDifferent]

Ok, would love to hear your thoughts: I’m looking at buying a property in Sydney for $620k, but hadn’t planned this. I’ve been putting all my money in Vanguard. I’m not sure if I could pull all of it out and do the 20% deposit, some and do the 10% or nothing and do the 5%?  I’d love to leave my money in Vanguard and then keep adding small amounts and then attack the mortgage. I know, I know all the reasons to not pay the mortgage down aggressively but I feel like Aus is a bit different. I want to retire in 5 years and want this paid off while I have income coming in.

Anyways, would you dip into your investment account or go 5%? Our other option is to buy in a year and save up more but we’ve found an ideal, unique place that we have a shot at and hate to pass it up if we can grab it.

Is this as an investment or for living in?  Personally I would say go for it if it is to be your home.  As an investment I would say the long term growth of property prices in Australia does not match the long term growth of shares.   Sydney is probably going nowhere for a long time as well.  I would stay in the vanguard instead.  Just the opinion of someone who invested in property and is now slowly trying to reduce the amount we have.

Yes, live in, then rent out after 4-5 years.

[PDM]

$620 - is it an apartment? The Sydney apartment market is looking a bit shakey based on everything I've read. It also looks like across the board prices have flattened (https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/01/corelogic-weekly-australian-house-price-update-falls-coast-coast/) sign up for free trial. Sydney is also coming off some crazy growth.

Yes, $620k for a 1 bed, 1 bath, no car within a 25 min bike ride to the cbd.

I know it is Sydney but wowsers! For a 1 bedder, no car. That seems nuts.

Apartments prices will lead any downturn in prices. I realise it isn't that much of an issue if you plan to live in but you don't want to be paying off more that it is worth. So many new apartments being built/have been built in the last few years. Not to mention the Chinese dollar leaving the market...yikes.

Have you lived in a one bedder? The smallest I'd live in with my wife is two bedrooms...and even then.

[hm520]

Yeah the VTS/VEU US domicile creates a bit more regulatory risk (assuming you're an Australian resident). Often mentioned is US estate taxes. I don't think it's an issue for Australian residents due to the tax treaty but do your own research, and it's always subject to change. VGS is Oz domicile so avoids that.

The key diff is VGS has no emerging markets, whereas VEU does about 20% I believe. So a proper comparison is VGS/VGE vs VTS/VEU. Now you have similar complexity / # of funds... Or you can go without emerging markets.

Also no DRP's on VTS/VEU as you mentioned that's not an issue for you though.

VGS fee is a bit higher but hopefully will come down over time towards VTS/VEU. The real, after tax gap is probably less too as others have explained VEU will have some withholding taxes internally that will not get credited, whereas VGS picks up all the foreign tax credit offsets.

personally I'd choose VGS (and VGE if you want emerging markets).

Thanks for your reply.

It's a tricky question. I guess inherently I'm biased towards the US market (for no particular reason) and personally feel a heavier weighting towards it will lead to more growth.

Even with regular purchasing, a 'set-and-forget' DRP is appealing.

[deborah]

DRPs aren't set-and-forget. OK, you don't get the dividends and then have to work out where you are going to put them, but...

- when you sell them, you need to work out when you bought every single one of them and work out your CGT separately for each parcel.
- it makes you lazy about rebalancing your portfolio, and the portfolio drifts out of alignment with your goals since some investments have more dividends than others, so you automatically buy more shares in those.
- you always leave some of your dividend in the account (not a lot, but some), as you are only going to buy whole shares.

[MrThatsDifferent]

$620 - is it an apartment? The Sydney apartment market is looking a bit shakey based on everything I've read. It also looks like across the board prices have flattened (https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/01/corelogic-weekly-australian-house-price-update-falls-coast-coast/) sign up for free trial. Sydney is also coming off some crazy growth.

Yes, $620k for a 1 bed, 1 bath, no car within a 25 min bike ride to the cbd.

I know it is Sydney but wowsers! For a 1 bedder, no car. That seems nuts.

Apartments prices will lead any downturn in prices. I realise it isn't that much of an issue if you plan to live in but you don't want to be paying off more that it is worth. So many new apartments being built/have been built in the last few years. Not to mention the Chinese dollar leaving the market...yikes.

Have you lived in a one bedder? The smallest I'd live in with my wife is two bedrooms...and even then.

Yes, it is nuts. It’s the best deal we can find. We are dreading the idea of a 1 bedroom. We did it when we first met. Will be tough to go backwards but we can pay it off.

Can we claim the interest on our taxes and how does it work if a couple? We split the interest and claim half each.

[deborah]

No - unless it is an investment unit. Your PPOR is CGT free and you also cannot claim the interest.

[PDM]

The Sydney market is crazy.

[BRAFRA]

No - unless it is an investment unit. Your PPOR is CGT free and you also cannot claim the interest.

Claim the interest ?

[itchyfeet]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

[MrThatsDifferent]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

[marty998]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

Mine has held up in value, though I'm in the outer suburbs. But yes I do expect prices to come back a little bit through this year, especially if interest rates go up.

Which suburb are you looking to buy in?

[MrThatsDifferent]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

Mine has held up in value, though I'm in the outer suburbs. But yes I do expect prices to come back a little bit through this year, especially if interest rates go up.

Which suburb are you looking to buy in?

Roseberry, Moore Park and Alexandria. I looked at a lot of homes and there didn’t seem to be much interest. I think lots of people are waiting to see what happens and if our worst case is renting something slightly smaller, having an extra $10k not going to rent and investing, we’re still ok.

[PDM]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

That there is your classic rent money is dead money fallacy. What would an equivalent 2 bedder cost to buy? A lot more than $600/week. And don't forget all the other costs of ownership renters don't pay - body corporate, repairs etc.
Renting gives you a flexibility that owning doesn't.

[sully1985]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

Mine has held up in value, though I'm in the outer suburbs. But yes I do expect prices to come back a little bit through this year, especially if interest rates go up.

Which suburb are you looking to buy in?

Roseberry, Moore Park and Alexandria. I looked at a lot of homes and there didn’t seem to be much interest. I think lots of people are waiting to see what happens and if our worst case is renting something slightly smaller, having an extra $10k not going to rent and investing, we’re still ok.

FYI I live in the Rosebery/Zetland area and seriously, I would not buy anything (apartment-wise) in that area, I'm living in a 2 bed place that was built around 7-8 years ago and it's not aging well (Meriton). Thank God I don't own the place.

[MrThatsDifferent]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

That there is your classic rent money is dead money fallacy. What would an equivalent 2 bedder cost to buy? A lot more than $600/week. And don't forget all the other costs of ownership renters don't pay - body corporate, repairs etc.
Renting gives you a flexibility that owning doesn't.

This has been my thinking to date. I’m not sure if I’m experiencing FOMO or what?

[MrThatsDifferent]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

Mine has held up in value, though I'm in the outer suburbs. But yes I do expect prices to come back a little bit through this year, especially if interest rates go up.

Which suburb are you looking to buy in?

Roseberry, Moore Park and Alexandria. I looked at a lot of homes and there didn’t seem to be much interest. I think lots of people are waiting to see what happens and if our worst case is renting something slightly smaller, having an extra $10k not going to rent and investing, we’re still ok.

FYI I live in the Rosebery/Zetland area and seriously, I would not buy anything (apartment-wise) in that area, I'm living in a 2 bed place that was built around 7-8 years ago and it's not aging well (Meriton). Thank God I don't own the place.

Funny you say that, we looked at the place and they just had some water damage fixed. Do you not like the area?

[marty998]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

Mine has held up in value, though I'm in the outer suburbs. But yes I do expect prices to come back a little bit through this year, especially if interest rates go up.

Which suburb are you looking to buy in?

Roseberry, Moore Park and Alexandria. I looked at a lot of homes and there didn’t seem to be much interest. I think lots of people are waiting to see what happens and if our worst case is renting something slightly smaller, having an extra $10k not going to rent and investing, we’re still ok.

FYI I live in the Rosebery/Zetland area and seriously, I would not buy anything (apartment-wise) in that area, I'm living in a 2 bed place that was built around 7-8 years ago and it's not aging well (Meriton). Thank God I don't own the place.

Funny you say that, we looked at the place and they just had some water damage fixed. Do you not like the area?

I would not go anywhere near Alexandria/Zetland either. For the same reasons - crappy construction and mega strata fees. And down the track do you really think you'll be able to rent it with all the supply going up? There's literally 10's of thousands of identical shoeboxes going up in that whole corridor bounded by the CBD, Airport, Southern Cross Drive and the Eastern Suburbs/Illawarra Railway line between Wolli Creek and the city.

Renters will do exceptionally well with all the negotiating power.

I'd look around Edgecliff / Waverley if I were going to spend $600k on a 1 bedder. Much more likely to hold value.

[MrThatsDifferent]

Yeah Marty, each agent I asked said that whole area was going to be torn down and new buildings put up. I can’t see how rents will rise. The place we’re looking at is unique but will it be unique enough? I think you’re right though. Feels like there will be a huge glut in 5 years.

[Fresh Bread]

When we apartment shopping in 2007/8 we looked at the Victoria Park area and the buildings looked very shoddy even when they were only a few years old. The cladding looked bad and there were water issues.

$650k gets you a one bedder in the Manly area and the price would hold I reckon?

[Luckyvik]

When we apartment shopping in 2007/8 we looked at the Victoria Park area and the buildings looked very shoddy even when they were only a few years old. The cladding looked bad and there were water issues.

$650k gets you a one bedder in the Manly area and the price would hold I reckon?

I second Manly or an area with older buildings with lower strata 800-1000/quarter max ie no lift, no pool. Lower north shore, inner west, inner east centennial park etc.


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[MrThatsDifferent]

Well, we’re putting that plan on hold until we save up 20% not using my Vanguard shares, which makes me happy. We’ll look again in a year. Thanks everyone for helping talk some sense in my head.

[sully1985]

The Sydney market is crazy.

Prices are dropping. Since the peak back in June last year my place has dropped in value by $100,000 or so, say 5%. I do think that prices will continue to retreat through 2018.

Yes, this is kinda my gut sense and why I’m thinking we might be better off just waiting for 18 months?  Here’s what’s crazy: we currently pay a lot in rent. We could move to a 2 bedder for $600/week, but if we buy the 1 bedder, our mortgage would be around $600/week, so paying the same for less, although we’ll own it. Decisions! Decisions!

Mine has held up in value, though I'm in the outer suburbs. But yes I do expect prices to come back a little bit through this year, especially if interest rates go up.

Which suburb are you looking to buy in?

Roseberry, Moore Park and Alexandria. I looked at a lot of homes and there didn’t seem to be much interest. I think lots of people are waiting to see what happens and if our worst case is renting something slightly smaller, having an extra $10k not going to rent and investing, we’re still ok.

FYI I live in the Rosebery/Zetland area and seriously, I would not buy anything (apartment-wise) in that area, I'm living in a 2 bed place that was built around 7-8 years ago and it's not aging well (Meriton). Thank God I don't own the place.

Funny you say that, we looked at the place and they just had some water damage fixed. Do you not like the area?

I would not go anywhere near Alexandria/Zetland either. For the same reasons - crappy construction and mega strata fees. And down the track do you really think you'll be able to rent it with all the supply going up? There's literally 10's of thousands of identical shoeboxes going up in that whole corridor bounded by the CBD, Airport, Southern Cross Drive and the Eastern Suburbs/Illawarra Railway line between Wolli Creek and the city.

Renters will do exceptionally well with all the negotiating power.

I'd look around Edgecliff / Waverley if I were going to spend $600k on a 1 bedder. Much more likely to hold value.

MrThatsDifferent - I have no issue with the area, lots of services and close to the CBD and Airport (although the occasional fly-over/by can be annoying - depends on the wind direction though), but I wouldn't want to live there and drive, lots of apartments going up and no real investment in the infrastructure.

marty998 - Nail on the head (shame the tradies can't seem to do that)... I'd also add that I have some friends who live down in Matraville, and even though it's close to the airport they hardly hear anything (no direct flight path), so might be worth looking around there?

Suppose it all depends on plans in the future (and all that Jazz), I certainly wouldn't be looking to buy in Sydney at the moment but that's just my 2 cents.

[Fresh Bread]

I just read this article but I don't follow it, can anyone shed any light?

http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/market-momentum-has-never-been-higher-but-the-risk-of-a-crash-is-high-20180129-h0pumd.html

The author talks about how you don't achieve average returns unless you stay in the market, but then talks about selling. He says he intends to sell at the start of the crash, but doesn't say what happens next - would he buy in again at the bottom a day later? Who the fuck's got time for these shenanigans? I'll just stick with the average.

[FFA]

Yeah I agree Fresh Bread, I think it's rubbish advice and will lead most people to screw up. Sit on the edge of your seat, watch your screen, start selling quietly in the night. Was he selling everything quickly during the brexit or trump surprise victory, only to quietly buy it all back a few days later at higher prices. Or worse just stay out and still waiting for the price to come down. For most people the best thing is to make a plan that fits your situation/personality and stay the course. Turn the screen off and save yourself the anxiety.

That said he has a point in that markets are quite high. So people should pay attention if portfolios need a rebalance. Those still making regular contributions might want to slow them down and build up more cash to get your asset allocation back to where it is desired.

[itchyfeet]

Agreed. Ridduclous article and stupid advice.

What will trigger this quiet selling deep in the night? A 1% selloff, 5%, 10%? In which country?

Trading when the markets are closed is generally a bad idea. What happens if the market drops 80% at the opening. Placing your sell order in the depths of the night means you have no control. Maybe you wouldn’t sell if you knew most of your wealth was already gone. Yes, You could put a limit on the trade, but how do you set that Limit (1% lower, 10% lower)?

When do you buy back in?

 If you are going to trigger massive amounts of CGT, shouldn’t this be a consideration?

I think better advice is to Just stick to your investment plan.

Stay the course and rebalance periodically. Forget timing the market. If you don’t like the risk of a security don’t buy in the first place.

Choose an asset mix that let’s you turn your Computer off and get a proper night’s sleep.

[Abundant life]

Here is probably another set of dumb questions:

I decided to sell a large parcel of shares in IOO ETF. I use Direct Shares' market depth to track the prices and quantities of buy and sell orders, plus the cost and amount of the last ten trades to get a feel for the way the market is trading at that time.

I put in my sell order for a certain price, and I can see it in line with the other sell orders. There seems to be someone selling over 6000 shares for a certain price and I wanted to get ahead of them and sell today as the total number of shares traded is usually about 11,000 to 15,000 per day, and it will take a while to sell 6000+ shares.

But some strange things (to me) seem to be happening. 6000 shares is worth about .75 million A$ - that's a lot! Then suddenly there is another 6000+ order ahead of me. These large amounts seem to jump in and out of the selling line. I know people can submit and cancel orders, but is someone playing silly buggers?

Also the speed at which they sell is not constant, so there might be up to 10 minutes without any trades. Then there will be a sale of 1 share? Who would sell or buy one share when the cost to trade would be prohibitive, or is this a way the ASX keeps things moving?

And I can't understand why trading takes place outside of trading hours. Suddenly after 4pm the shares jump in price? Also one would think yesterday's closing price would be today's opening price?

[deborah]

You may be seeing high frequency trading - https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/investing/shares/how-to-buy-and-sell-shares/high-frequency-trading

[mjr]

What you're seeing is the market maker.  Look it up.

[Abundant life]

Thanks Deborah and mjr, you learn something everyday! Seems a bit underhanded and manipulative in a 'free-market'.

[mjr]

Not really.  The bid-ask spread is the price we pay for liquidity when trading shares, especially ones with low volumes compared to the heavily-traded ones.

[Stewart]

Hi everyone, I'm new here.
I just read this entire thread (took me 2 months).
As a 50 year old touring musician with minimal investing experience, I really appreciate the knowledge and insight provided here!
SK

[Little Aussie Battler]

Anyone buying today?

[hm520]

Anyone buying today?

I would be but am in the process of transferring between brokers. Not a huge urgency for me though. Glad someone could take advantage of it!