S&P 500 at 2400 and I’ll put some cash in that normally is waiting for real estate deals. Not all. Probably DCA 1/2 of it into vtsax over a month or so.
S&P 500 at 2400 and I’ll put some cash in that normally is waiting for real estate deals. Not all. Probably DCA 1/2 of it into vtsax over a month or so.
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If this recession has enough depth and duration (both very likely), then you can be a little more patient and use the 100-day average, or 200-day average
If this recession has enough depth and duration (both very likely), then you can be a little more patient and use the 100-day average, or 200-day average if you are conservative, to help you decide when to buy. You won't catch the market at the lowest point, but you'll be near it. I did the same thing in 2008-2009 when I was early in my investment with only $200k. Now that I'm retired with $900k, I'll do the same thing. Below is Dow during the 2008 crash, and the 100-day average (smooth black line) started to turn up during Apr 09 and Jul 09. That was when I started buying. I didn't catch Dow at the lowest point of 6k, but I caught it at 7k to 9k, which was still pretty good. The people at Bogleheads suggested me this strategy at the time, and now I'm suggesting it to you.
If this recession has enough depth and duration (both very likely), then you can be a little more patient and use the 100-day average, or 200-day average
If I understand you, you are suggesting looking for the signal that the index moves from being below the 100-day moving average to being equal to or greater then the 100-day moving average as a signal that we have hit the inflection point?
Didn't take long for all the doomsday downside forecasts to start appearing, did it?
And you didn't even put up much of a fight.
Seriously, things may feel bad now and they may get worse.. probably will get worse.. but always remember:The Market Is A Future Discounting Mechanism
it tends to top well in advance of peak economic activity, and then bottom well before the storm is over.
With 1/3rd wiped of global stocks, it is arguable that they have now done much of their forward readjustment in anticipation of bad outcomes, so even if the CV situation worsens greatly, it may not have much further downside impact on the markets.
The correct answer here of course requires a crystal ball, but I'm just trying to get a sense of what others perceive as "too good of a price to pass up". Obviously the plan is to keep going with the scheduled monthly contributions and get those "discounts" either way. But I'm talking about above and beyond that. For example, what does VTSAX have to get to where you'd put money on a HELOC, or buy with your cash reserves, or exchange your bonds for it? This assumes being employed and not needing to live off of any of this money for at least 5 years.
Didn't take long for all the doomsday downside forecasts to start appearing, did it?
And you didn't even put up much of a fight.
Seriously, things may feel bad now and they may get worse.. probably will get worse.. but always remember:The Market Is A Future Discounting Mechanism
it tends to top well in advance of peak economic activity, and then bottom well before the storm is over.
With 1/3rd wiped of global stocks, it is arguable that they have now done much of their forward readjustment in anticipation of bad outcomes, so even if the CV situation worsens greatly, it may not have much further downside impact on the markets.
Better a downside forecaster than the reverse, especially in a potentially historic recession like this. I've lived through 2008-2009 and am now retired, so I've actually proven that my method works. Using words like "well in advance," "well before," "arguable," "may not have," etc., you sound REALLY certain yourself, so go ahead and buy. We've read plenty of threads from people here who bought early. Those who bought when Dow was at 25K caught falling knives already, so did those who bought at 23k. I bought nothing yet and caught no falling knife. I get that some of you want to retire early by being more aggressive, but use some common sense. This could be the first major collapse some of you millennials would face, and your methodology could be the fine line between whether you would come out ahead or have it blow up in your face.