Perhaps this doesn't belong in the Investor thread, but figured I'd ask here.
FIRE sounds very appealing and a lot of what's said about FIRE makes it sound pretty easy. Invest in index funds, allocate assets, lower taxes, watch how you spend, rinse, repeat, sounds pretty simple and easy.
But there seem to be a lot of things that could derail plans for FIRE. Loss of work and long-term unemployment could derail a lot of people's plans for retiring as they have to dip into their stash. Couldn't some of us be underestimating how much we need for FIRE if unexpected events occur? Unemployment, health conditions, unplanned kid, divorce, parent's hospital bill, unknown liabilities held by parents/family, and more could all dent our stashes and put a lid on plans to retire.
I haven't seen a lot of people take into account factors like job loss into FIRE, especially during recessions or crises. Most of what I read just assumes that we will all be working during a recession or downturn. Then buying equity while it's cheap and rebalancing, buying stocks with bonds (side question: bonds can go up with higher interest rates, so couldn't both bonds and stocks drop together dramatically? How would you use bonds to buy stocks during a downturn?). But what if cash is needed for more immediate expenses, even if you have a mustachian lifestyle and are unemployed? Considering that some of us are young or just starting, recessions/crises are likely going to happen sometime in our working career. As we approach FIRE or during our pursuit of FIRE, some of us might sacrifice ambition, job, or professional growth. Couldn't that sacrifice come back to bite us if we don't take our careers seriously enough or commit long enough to it? Would retiring early hurt some people's chances for re-entering the workforce should unexpected events occur? The recent thread mentioning a 1972-like scenario and mention of long-term global slowdown in growth and flat economy had me wondering.
I feel like our goal to FIRE assumes everything is going to happen the way we predict it's going to happen. But that's obviously not true, plans change. I'm wondering if we're a bit too optimistic about reaching FIRE sometimes and maybe we should not throw away our careers so quickly? Decisions based off the goal of reaching FIRE could exacerbate risks of failing to reach FIRE sometimes.
What behaviors or decisions could we make to stay focused on FIRE during bad times? Particularly psychological mind traps we should guard against. Should we accumulate a little more extra than we need? Maybe I'm just thinking into all this too much.